Review Credit Research 4 April 2016

Transcription

1 Review Credit Research 4 April 216 Haldor Topsøe Industry (GICS): Chemicals Sector (Nordea): Materials BBB Stable Key info Country Bloomberg debt Bloomberg equity Moody's S&P Market cap. (bn) Denmark HALDOR Corp Z DC NR/--- NR/--- Nordea Markets - Analysts Alexander Koefoed Analyst, Credit [email protected] Andreas Zsiga Chief analyst, Credit [email protected] Company data Bonds issued Coupon Amount HALDOR float 4/17/18 CIBOR+25bp 5mDKK HALDOR 4/17/ % 5mDKK Employees 2,5 Management Chairman of the board Henrik Topsoee CEO Bjerne S. Clausen CFO Peter Roennest Andersen Ownership 1% owned by Haldor Topsoe Holding A/S which is fully controlled by Topsoee family Company website Next report date 12/8/216 Leverage development 3. x 2. x 1. x. x E217E218E Debt/EBITDA FFO/Debt (rhs) 9% 7% 5% 3% 1% -1% Scaling up becomes catalyst for growth We reiterate our BBB shadow rating on Haldor Topsøe with a Stable outlook after 215 results that were largely as we expected. Debt development was better than anticipated thanks to working capital measures on both prepayments on projects and better supplier terms. We argue that Iranian transactions and new truck filter production facilities in China coming fully online in 217 will lead to growth in the forecast period (216-18), although capex requirements and some setbacks in growth expectations will increase leverage somewhat. 215 results slightly ahead of our expectations Owing to solid cash flow development and working capital measures, debt levels were below our estimate for full-year 215. As expected, Haldor Topsøe faced a tough operating environment in the year on account of stressed project sales, although some recovery was seen in the second part of the year. We believe this means that conditions were even worse than management initially expected at the time of its profit warning in H However, profitability was largely in line with our expectations, with EBIT of DKK 52m (563m) down 11% (3% down like-for-like), versus our forecast of DKK 494m. As the mix between technology sales and catalyst sales was unchanged from the strong H2 215 development, we argue that higher depreciation, additional employee ramp-up costs, lay-offs and a different division mix were the main reasons for this. Looking ahead into 216 and beyond Management's guidance is for another year of flat revenue but with rising EBIT levels, driven by Iranian transactions coming in following the lifting of sanctions against the country, in addition to cost savings from the lay-off of 16 people. We translate this into at least 1% upside from current EBIT of DKK 52m and forecast DKK 56m for 216 as our base case, although we still see upside to this figure from cost savings and further Iranian deals. Pricing We like Haldor Topsøe's bonds and highlight HALDOR 2 (z-ask spread of 168 bp) as attractive in relation to comparable Danish credits and selected peers. Key credit metrics and ratios (adjusted numbers) DKKm EBITDA margin 14% 17% EBIT margin 1% 11% Shareholders' equity 1,65 1,124 Debt 887 1,83 Debt/(Debt+Equity).5.5 FFO/Debt 6.5% 48.8% FOCF/Debt 32.8% 17.8% DCF/Debt -6.6% -8.% EBITDA interest coverage Debt/EBITDA ROC 18.6% 2.% % % 1, % 72.1% 48.4% % % % 1,344 1, % -1.8% -26.1% % % % 1,61 1, % -8.% -42.2% % 214 1,6 18% 592 1% 1,76 1, % 7.8% -8.2% % % 531 9% 1,93 1, % 4.4% -8.2% % 216E 1,1 17% 589 1% 2,66 2, % -4.7% -15.3% % 217E % 516 9% 2,114 2, % 3.9% -6.3% % 218E 1,54 17% 567 9% 2,173 2, % -5.5% -14.7% % IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT Markets

2 Haldor Topsøe 4 April 216 Relative value We like Haldor Topsoe's bonds and highlight HALDOR 2 (z-ask spread of 168 bp) as attractive in relation to comparable Danish credits and selected peers, including Clariant (S&P-rated BBB-/Negative) and Albemarle (S&P-rated BBB-/Stable) as well as DKK issuer DSV (shadow rated BBB/Stable), we argue supported by differences in their financial risk profiles in particular. Spread development, z-mid, bp 255 Spread development of selected DKK issuers, spread to swap, bp 22 Relative value of selected DKK issuers, z- spread and DM-mid, bp /6/215 21/7/215 9/9/215 29/1/215 18/12/215 6/2/ Jun15 Jul15 Aug15 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar DCROWN 11/2/17 AMBUDC 3 3/8 3/15/18 DFDSDC 6/13/19 HALDOR 4/17/18 HALDOR 3 5/8 4/17/2 DSVDC 3 1/2 6/24/2 DSVDC 3 1/2 3/18/22 DSVDC 3/18/22 HALDOR 4/17/18 HALDOR 3 5/8 4/17/2 CLNVX 3 1/4 4/24/19 ALB 1 7/8 12/8/21 Source: Bloomberg and Nordea Markets HALDOR 3 5/8 4/17/2 DSVDC 3 1/2 6/24/2 DSVDC 3 1/2 3/18/22 Source: Bloomberg and Nordea Markets Source: Bloomberg and Nordea Markets Nordea Markets 2

3 Haldor Topsøe 4 April results slightly ahead of the expected Haldor Topsøe realised a full-year 215 roughly aligned with profitability expectations in a year characterised by turbulent markets. Solid prepayments related to project sales and better supplier terms improved cash flow generation. As a result, debt levels rose by less than expected, along with lower cash payout of dividends. The holding company and owner of Haldor Topsøe A/S still need to amortise the 27 buyout loan and so it is dependent to dividend distribution from operating A/S. We thus see a lower net debt/ebitda ratio at 1.4x (1.1x) for the year ahead of our expectations at 1.6x. Revenue and EBIT development As expected, revenue growth was flat in 215, as in the guidance issued with the profit warning in H1 215, when the company projected that EBIT would decline compared with 214 (even though 214 year was already impacted by the Fuel Cell write-down of DKK 151m). Revenue came in at DKK 5,785m (5,685m), up 2% y/y but down 4% organically. We expected that EBIT would fall back like-for-like by some 3%, to DKK 494m, while the actual result was slightly ahead of this, at DKK 52m. Bridge to 215 EBIT, DKKm Reported EBIT One offs, Fuel 214 Cell in 214 Loss on business in 215 EBIT 215 forecast Alongside the full-year 215 results, the company also said that the business mix between technology sales and catalyst sales is unchanged. This leads us to conclude that higher deprecation from new production facilities, additional employee costs and costs related to new factories and a different division revenue mix (Chemicals, Refinery and Environmental) are causing reduced profitability. We argue that troubled project sales are driven by uncertainties surrounding the global economy, geopolitical risk, a lack of funding capability in Russia, saturated fertiliser markets (urea and nitrogen markets), a low oil price and diminished capex needs by refineries. On a more positive note, we also see earnings support from innovation in the product portfolio, including the FLS filter bag endeavour, the Ferrostaal joint venture O&M focus, and furnace technology, which should drive further project sales and compensate for subdued projects at current levels. As such, we expect market share to be supported, although the company has been verbal about capturing market share previously. Nordea Markets 3

4 Haldor Topsøe 4 April 216 Deviation table and guidance DKKm A 215E Deviation 216E Guidance Long term target Revenue 5,685 5,785 5,742 1% 5,785 Flat or slightly rising EBITDA % 897 EBIT % 56 Rising EBIT-margin 1% 9% 9% 1% 1% >1% Net profit % 379 Net debt 1,16 1,152 1,236-7% 1,487 Net debt/ebitda % 1.7 <2.5x In division segmentation, we see Refinery taking a greater share of revenue compared with the Chemicals and Environmental divisions, although this is subject to change, in our opinion, as the China-based factory is soon to come on line with truck filters. It is our impression that this revenue distribution was previously more equal. We see development on segmentation as a result of solid catalyst sales in refineries where smarter, more sophisticated catalysts become important to squeeze out more value from each boe, making it less valuable for refineries as energy prices and crack spreads fall. In addition, 215 also saw the removal of sanctions against Iran, which should support earnings going forward. Divisional revenue breakdown, 215 estimate Chemicals 25% New 7% Enviornmental 25% Refinery 43% Debt and leverage development As reported, Haldor Topsøe has managed to receive funding for projectrelated sales, improving working capital measures. In addition, better terms on supplier payables have improved cash flow generation despite more lenient terms towards customers. Net debt increased to DKK 1,152m (1,16m) in 215, but was below our estimate of DKK 1,236m. Consequently, net debt/ebitda increased to 1.4x, below our expected 1.6x, which we argue is a favourable development in troubled markets. The equity ratio is slightly down, to 27.8% as reported in 215 compared with 28.4% in 214. Nordea Markets 4

5 Haldor Topsøe 4 April 216 Nordea Markets estimates We make two sets of estimates for Haldor Topsøe, one base case and one credit case for sensitivity purposes. The credit case reflects a subdued earnings development and less profound revenue growth. We argue that soft fertiliser markets and subdued project sales justify such sensitivity analysis. However, we take comfort in our base case, which includes Iranian deal income generation but clear further upside in addition to cost savings and Chinese truck filter sales. Key risks include soft fertiliser markets, subdued investment sentiment and geopolitical risk. Base and credit case, DKKm 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2.% 18.% 16.% 14.% 12.% 1.% E 217E 218E EBITDA Revenue credit case EBITDA credit margin Revenue EBITDA-margin Estimate changes into new forecast period Change in estimates Year 216E 217E 218E Total revenue -4% -7% EBITDA 12% -1% Net debt -2% -1% Net debt/ebitda -12% % Selected fertiliser sales and capex to HT sales, DKKm 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, HT sales Fertilizer sales (rhs) Fertilizer capex (rhs) Source: Company data, FactSet and Nordea Markets 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Base case In our base case, in which we emphasise rating assessment, we include revenue growth commensurate with peers. Although management has been very verbal about capturing market share, we argue that flat 216 revenue guidance points to some setbacks in this ambition. We thus include lower revenue growth in , with 217E now at DKK 6,16m, down 7% from our previous estimate. We had initially expected higher revenue growth inspired by the 3 in 25 strategy, although not as high as following the profit warning in H1, 215. Since guidance is for flat revenue in 216, we take down our revenue estimate by 4% to DKK 5,785m and thus also our growth expectations for the remaining forecast period (216-18). In our opinion, this is also justified by the read-across on estimates from selected peers. On EBIT side we had been reluctant to include upside from Iranian transactions (previously grid-locked by sanctions). On account of guidance for rising EBIT in 216, we now include at least 1% upside to EBIT of DKK 52m in 215 but argue that further earnings may arise from cost savings and additional deals in the Middle East. Further ahead, we see the possibility of increased competition and a different product mix ie more truck filter sales reducing the EBITDA margin versus our 216 forecast. Also, we see no immediate recovery in project sales from the subdued investment sentiment among oil majors and fertiliser/petrochemical companies. This also justifies softer margins, in our view. Financials estimates DKKm E 217E 218E Revenue 5,685 5,785 5,785 6,16 6,257 EBITDA EBIT EBIT-margin 1% 9% 1% 9% 9% Net profit Net debt 1,16 1,152 1,487 1,627 2,17 Net debt/ebitda Management also points to stable capex levels y/y versus 215 (DKK 732m) and we expect levels to build slowly in when Indian capex ramp-up is possible on account of the truck filter regulations (Euro VI standard) to be implemented by 22 in the country. We argue that these capex levels will drive growth, leaving upside for more market share capture than is currently reflected in our base-case estimates. As a result of expanding business in China and a more competitive Iran, working capital levels will not improve substantially from here, in our opinion. Nordea Markets 5

6 Haldor Topsøe 4 April 216 We expect dividends to be maintained to amortise the owner/holding company buyout loan established in 27, when founder Haldor Topsøe reacquired Haldor Topsøe A/S. Credit case Risks prevail on the project sales that contributed to the profit warning in H In addition, we see higher operational leverage from new factories, leading to reduced flexibility and downside risk (from becoming more asset-heavy, for example, and subject to higher deprecation levels). It is also relevant to highlight the geopolitical risk in our estimates, as renewed sanctions against Iran or elsewhere could have a detrimental effect. From the less obvious market share capture ability, we include % revenue growth in our sensitivity analysis and declining profitability from the loss of project sales (amplified by the assumed bearish investment sentiment towards new facilities), plus a different business mix. In such a bearish situation, we also highlight management's wording about maintaining an Investment Grade rating and place attention on the financial flexibility in both capex and dividends. These would constitute mitigating factors that offer us comfort in the rating as shown below. Financials and credit metric development, base- and credit-case scenarios, DKKm Credit adjusted figures Base case Credit case DKK(m) E 217E 218E E 217E 218E Revenues 4,257 4,21 4,421 5,244 5,348 5,685 5,785 5,785 6,16 6,257 5,785 5,785 5,785 5,785 EBITDA , , , margin 14% 17% 16% 16% 18% 18% 15% 17% 16% 17% 15% 17% 14% 12% Debt 887 1, ,194 1,813 1,871 1,992 2,27 2,41 2,737 1,992 2,196 2,292 2,511 Equity 1,65 1,124 1,37 1,344 1,61 1,76 1,93 2,66 2,114 2,173 1,93 2,55 2,26 2,18 FFO Change in NWC OCF Capex FOCF Net acquisitions Dividends FFO/debt 6.5% 48.8% 83.4% 52.8% 36.1% 42.7% 34.% 31.6% 31.7% 29.8% 34.% 34.9% 27.5% 21.9% FOCF/debt 32.8% 17.8% 72.1% -1.8% -8.% 7.8% 4.4% -4.7% 3.9% -5.5% 4.4% -5.6% 4.3% -6.6% DCF/debt -7% -8% 48% -26% -42% -8% -8% -15% -6% -15% -8% -16% -4% -1% Debt/EBITDA 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.1 x 1.4 x 1.9 x 1.9 x 2.2 x 2.3 x 2.5 x 2.6 x 2.2 x 2.3 x 2.9 x 3.6 x EBITDA/interest 4.3 x 5.2 x 6.5 x 5.7 x 5.7 x 6.3 x 3.9 x 4.1 x 3.9 x 4. x 3.9 x 4.3 x 3.3 x 3.1 x Nordea Markets 6

7 Haldor Topsøe 4 April 216 Rating quality discussion We reiterate our BBB shadow rating with a Stable outlook thanks to a Satisfactory business risk profile and an Intermediate financial risk profile. We believe that Haldor Topsøe still holds competitive advantages within niche products in its business divisions, while being more limited in scale, scope and operating efficiency. Coming from low levels of debt, we expect the company to see rising leverage in the forecast period (216-18), but we take comfort in its stability, as confirmed by the sensitivity analysis of estimates. Business risk profile Satisfactory Haldor Topsøe enjoys favourable demand in its niche markets, thanks to mega-trends such as population growth, energy efficiency demand and climate change focus. We argue that this places the issuer at the higher end of the rating spectrum. As a result, Haldor Topsøe has an above-average competitive edge, in our view, supported by high market shares. We find Haldor Topsøe limited by its scale and scope, though. It boasts strong market shares in its niche markets but its product range is limited in comparison with its competitors. It has only a few production facilities, although new manufacturing sites in Brazil, Denmark and China will improve the situation somewhat. It does not match the revenue base of competitors. Some support is provided by the diversification of the product portfolio; in Refinery, production levels are increasing, offsetting the weakness in emerging economies, reducing capex in the wake of low oil prices and thus impacting project sales. Furthermore, we argue that operating efficiency is moderate, owing to high R&D costs and limited economies of scale. R&D eats up 1% of group sales. Based on the historical company culture as developed by its founder we argue that the company has a fondness for R&D endeavours, adopting a risk-seeking attitude towards R&D projects and human capital. The focus can lead to volatile profit in the event of failed commercialisation the recent DKK 151m Fuel Cell write-off is an example of this. Finally, the company has material working capital levels and these can be volatile at times. Hedging and customer contract price hikes are used but inventory values can still be exposed. Changing customer and supplier payment terms can also hurt the company's working capital measures. FFO/debt, % 4.5 x 4. x 3.5 x 3. x 2.5 x 2. x 1.5 x 1. x.5 x. x Debt/EBITDA Debt/EBITDA, credit case FRP, Significant FRP, Aggessive Source: Company data, S&P and Nordea Markets Financial risk profile Intermediate Considering the current levels of significant capex (dictated by growth ambitions), we see pressure on financial risk measures going forward. We assume that investments are difficult to unwind in the event of unexpected setbacks. Furthermore, the high levels of R&D and capex, which correspond to ~1% of sales, could hurt leverage, albeit from low levels. Substantial setbacks could be caused by changes in the regulatory environment or competition crowding out new initiatives in truck filters or more open markets in Iran. However, we believe this is a tail-risk scenario. Haldor Topsøe has adequate cash and liquidity. The company has around DKK 577m in unadjusted operational cash, and we believe it will have access to the holding company's cash buffer of around DKK 375m, should it be needed (a setup that we believe has been established purely to accommodate buyout loan terms on the holding company/owner level). Nordea Markets 7

8 Haldor Topsøe 4 April 216 Debt/EBITDA, x 9.% 8.% 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% FFO/debt FFO/debt, credit case FRP, Significant FRP, Aggessive Source: Company data, S&P and Nordea Markets Cash flow capacity, DKKm 1, , -1,5-2, CF before changes in NWC Changes in NWC Capex Dividends As Haldor Topsøe is a privately owned company with limited access to capital markets, we find comfort in the stabilising effects of the discretionary cash flow measures. We note that management remains committed to maintaining an Investment Grade profile, which confirms our view that the company has a conservative financial policy. In addition, we argue that outside the forecast period (216-18), reduced dividend potential could provide support to credit metrics. The funding structure maturity profile is adequately spread out over the next couple of years, with little currency risk, although some interest rate risk exists. Given the aggressive capex and dividend payouts, we believe that refinancing will become necessary. Also, DKK 196m has been placed as pledged assets for mortgages and US loans, which implies some subordination of bonds outstanding. However, we note that the issuer itself has operating activities, which offers comfort. Taking into account the operating leases, we adjust our debt assumptions by about DKK 53m for 215 and see a total debt measure of DKK ~2,m. Financial risk profile under base-case estimates Core ratios Supplementary coverage ratios Supplementary payback ratios FFO/debt Debt/EBITDA FFO/Cash interest(x) EBITDA/interest(x) CFO/debt(%) FOCF/debt(%) DCF/debt(%) Minimal >6 <1.5 >13 >15 >5 >4 >25 Modest Intermediate Significant Aggressive Highly leveraged <12 >5 <2 <2 <1 <5 <2 Source: S&P, Company data and Nordea Markets Credit matrix Business risk profile Anchor assessment Financial risk profile Minimal Modest Intermediate Significant Aggressive Highly leveraged Excellent aaa/aa+ aa a+/a a- bbb bbb-/bb+ Strong aa/aa- a+/a a-/bbb+ bbb bb+ bb Satisfactory a/a- bbb+ bbb/bbb- bbb-/bb+ bb b+ Fair bbb/bbb- bbb- bb+ bb bb- b Weak bb+ bb+ bb bb- b+ b/b- Vulnerable bb- bb- bb-/b+ b+ b b- Source: S&P, Company data and Nordea Markets Stable outlook and rating drivers We argue that our base case and sensitivity analysis support a Stable outlook on a BBB shadow rating, which can be placed within an Intermediate financial risk profile with comfort. However, we see downside should revenue growth become subdued or indications of a reduced competitive edge emerge for example, if growth is on a par with the market. Although our bearish sensitivity scenario suggests stretched financial credit metrics, we argue there will be time to adjust, and given flexibility in R&D expenditure, capex and dividend adjustments, we argue there are mitigating factors in place to accommodate the current rating level. Finally, we highlight further upside to our base-case scenario from costsaving initiatives, truck filter sales and more potential in Iran. At current levels, we see limited potential for a shadow rating upgrade. Nordea Markets 8

9 Haldor Topsøe 4 April 216 Peer comparison We compare Haldor Topsøe with two US-based refinery catalyst providers, Albemarle and Grace, while we use Switzerland-based Clariant to compare its ammonia-catalyst business. We believe Haldor Topsøe stands out favourably compared with its peer group on its Intermediate financial risk profile and holds a strong competitive advantage with its product portfolio. In our view, this is commensurate with the current shadow rating of BBB with a Stable outlook. Peer group comparison Revenue (Shadow) S&P Business Financial DKKm FFO/Debt Debt/EBITDA EBITDA-margin rating Outlook risk profile risk profile Year Latest FY Haldor Topsøe 5,785 83% 53% 36% 43% 34% % 15.9% 17.8% 17.7% 15.3% BBB Stable Satisfactory Intermediate Clariant 4,649 2% 16% 27% 23% 27% % 13.% 13.1% 12.4% 13.% BBB- Negative Satisfactory Significant Albemarle 24,462 95% 99% 53% 3% 9% % 25.4% 21.4% 17.2% 18.6% BBB- Stable Strong Significant Grace 2,442 21% 22% 13% 16% 16% % 21.3% 21.4% 21.1% 22.4% BB+ Stable Satisfactory Significant Source: S&P, Company data and Nordea Markets FFO/debt, % 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Haldor Topsøe Clariant Albemarle Grace Source: S&P, Company data and Nordea Markets Debt/EBITDA, x Haldor Topsøe Clariant Albemarle Grace Source: S&P, Company data and Nordea Markets EBITDA margin, % 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% Haldor Topsøe Clariant Albemarle Grace Source: S&P, Company data and Nordea Markets Nordea Markets 9

10 Haldor Topsøe 4 April 216 Overview of Haldor Topsøe Cost base segmentation Equipment Raw materials contract work 33% 8% Depreciation 5% Other external Staff expenses expenses 31% 23% Catalyst vs project sales Catalyst revenue 75% Technology revenue 25% Division segmentation Chemicals 25% New 7% Enviornmental 25% Refinery 43% Company description Haldor Topsøe is a leading niche catalyst production and services provider for customers in different industries including chemical companies, project developers, refineries and automotive producers. Catalyst products are used for speeding up chemical processes and can improve fuel quality, purification and ammonia/methanol/fertiliser production and limit automotive and plant emissions. It mainly operates within three business segments: Chemicals, Refinery and Environment. It employs ~2,5 people and has its headquarters in Denmark. It has global sales and multi-regional production facilities including Denmark, the US, Brazil and China. Around 25% of sales are in the US, making this the most important market for Haldor Topsøe. Credit-supportive factors Haldor Topsøe is protected by the high R&D barriers to entry to the industries in which it operates and the need to employ highly educated personnel. Capex in production facilities also acts as an economic barrier. Protected by stability in catalyst sales in materials/chemicals industries, customers are less price-sensitive and dependent on operational stability, securing a high level of customer retention for Haldor Topsøe. Leading niche market shares offer earnings resilience, in our view, which is supported by R&D in the longer term. We expect regulation trends in Latin America, the Middle East and Asia to continue towards emission restrictions on light- and heavy-duty vehicles, getting closer to the standard regulations in both Europe and China. Recently, India introduced Euro VI standards by 22, which further support these trends. We believe Haldor Topsøe has a healthy spread of revenue across the world including Europe, Asia, Latin America and the Middle East but we also see some geopolitical risk arising from such segmentation. Credit-constraining factors Conversely, we note that volatility in working capital measures and raw material prices, including metal prices, causes some fluctuations in the speciality chemicals segment. Furthermore, geopolitical risk in Russia, the Middle East and Africa could limit investment opportunities and cause uncertainty in customer relations. The political agenda on climate issues could also change, making Haldor Topsøe's products less influential. Reinstated sanctions in Iran cannot be ruled out should the country not comply with the terms agreed for sanction relief. Still low oil prices may limit investment activity from refineries, thereby reducing catalytic demand. We would expect some rebound in oil prices, which are still at low levels. Saturated fertiliser markets lead to reduced capex needs from manufacturers, to the detriment of Haldor Topsøe's technology sales (which deliver directly into these projects). More stability in the market share development, less evident growth and a reduced share of profitability from truck filters may put a strain on earnings going forward. Nordea Markets 1

11 Haldor Topsøe 4 April 216 Finally, technological piracy is a concern in some parts of the world, and technology breakthroughs by competitors could potentially leave Haldor Topsøe without a competitive advantage. Nordea Markets 11

12 Haldor Topsøe 4 April 216 Reported numbers and forecasts Income statement DKKm Total revenue -growth Gross profit - margin EBITDA - margin EBITA - margin EBIT - margin Net finance Pre-tax profit Taxes Net profit, continuing operations Discontinued operations Net profit to equity 29 4, % 1,73 4.6% % % % ,21-1.3% 1, % % % % , % 1, % % % % , % 2, % % % % ,348 2.% 2,48 45.% % % % , % 2, % % % % , % 2, % % % % E 5,785.% 2,63 45.% % % % E 6,16 4.% 2, % % % % E 6,257 4.%.% % % % EBITDA (credit adj) EBIT (credit adj) Interest expense (credit adj) , , , Balance Sheet DKKm Goodwill Other intangibles Tangible assets Shares associates Interest bearing assets Deferred tax assets Other non-interest bearing non-current assets Other non-current assets Non-current assets , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,32 216E 81 3, ,66 217E 43 3, , E 2 3, ,221 Inventory Accounts receivable Other current assets Cash and cash equivalents Current assets 1, ,889 1, ,671 1, ,159 1, ,9 3,392 1, ,517 1, ,559 1,227 1, ,892 1,215 1, ,652 1,263 1, ,758 1,314 1, ,596 Assets held for sale Total assets 4,823 4,64 5,158 5,53 6,132 6,455 7,194 7,312 7,575 7,818 Shareholders equity Minority interest 1,65 1,124 1,37 1,422 1,644 1, ,3 71 2, , , Deferred tax Convertible debt Long term interest bearing debt Non-current liabilities Pension provisions Other long-term provisions Other long-term liabilities Non-current liabilities 283 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,5 Short-term provisions Accounts payable Other current liabilities Short term interest bearing debt Current liabilities Liabilities for assets held for sale Total liabilities and equity 287 1, ,996 4, , ,888 4, , ,47 5, , ,35 5, , ,92 6, , ,122 6, , ,464 7, , ,45 7, , ,463 7, , ,491 7,819 Cash and cash eq (credit adj) Total assets (credit adj) Shareholders equity (credit adj) Debt (credit adj) 215 4,177 1, ,321 1,124 1, ,719 1, ,382 1,344 1, ,974 1,61 1, ,319 1,76 1, ,9 1,93 1, ,39 2,66 2, ,582 2,114 2, ,22 2,173 2,737 Nordea Markets 12

13 Haldor Topsøe 4 April 216 Cash flow statement DKKm EBITDA Adj due to change in group structure Change in Provisions Other non-cash adjustments Net financials Dividends received Paid taxes Other Operating cash flow before NWC Change in NWC Operating cash flow CAPEX Free Operating cash flow Dividends paid Share issues / buybacks Discretionary cash flow Other investments / divestments Other Proceeds from sale of assets Net change to group borrowing/repayments Other Change in cash E E E Adjusted metrics Funds from operations (FFO) (adj) Operating cash flow (OCF) (adj) Free operating cash flow (FOCF) (adj) Discretionary cash flow (DCF) (adj) Key ratios Profitability ROC ROIC after tax ROE after tax Debt & Interest coverage FFO/Debt FOCF/Debt DCF/Debt EBITDA interest coverage FFO cash interest coverage Leverage Debt/EBITDA Equity ratio Debt/(Debt+Equity) Capital expenditure CAPEX/Depreciation and amortisation CAPEX/Sales Working capital ratios Inventory turnover (days) Receivables turnover (days) Days sales outstanding (days) Per share data EPS EPS (adj.) DPS BVPS Equity valuation and yield Market cap. Enterprise value P/E P/BV EV/Sales EV/EBITDA Dividend yield Payout ratio %.% 31.3% % 32.8% -6.6% % % 21 2.%.% 28.1% % 17.8% -8.% % % %.% 33.1% % 72.1% 48.4% % % %.% 3.4% % -1.8% -26.1% % % %.% 36.1% % -8.% -42.2% % % %.% 25.6% % 7.8% -8.2% % % %.% 16.8% % 4.4% -8.2% % % 216E 12.9%.% 18.3% 216E 31.6% -4.7% -15.3% E %.5 216E E E E 63.7% 217E 1.6%.% 13.7% 217E 31.7% 3.9% -6.3% E %.5 217E E E E 83.% 218E 11.%.% 14.1% 218E 29.8% -5.5% -14.7% E %.6 218E E E E 8.5% Nordea Markets 13

14 Haldor Topsøe 4 April 216 Disclaimer and legal disclosures Disclaimer Origin of the publication or report This publication or report originates from: Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Danmark A/S, Nordea Bank Finland Plc and Nordea Bank Norge ASA (together the "Group Companies" or "Nordea Group") acting through their unit Nordea Markets. The Group Companies are supervised by the Financial Supervisory Authority of their respective home countries. Content of the publication or report This publication or report has been prepared solely by Nordea Markets. Opinions or suggestions from Nordea Markets credit and equity research may deviate from one another or from recommendations or opinions presented by other departments or companies in the Nordea Group. This may typically be the result of differing time horizons, methodologies, contexts or other factors. 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15 Haldor Topsøe 4 April 216 Analyst Shareholding Nordea Markets analysts do not hold shares in the companies that they cover. No holdings or other affiliations by analysts or associates. Market-making obligations and other significant financial interest Nordea Markets has no market-making obligations in Haldor Topsøe. Recommendation definitions Outperform Over the next three months, the fixed income instrument's total return is expected to exceed the total return of the relevant benchmark. Market perform Over the next three months, the fixed income instrument's total return is expected to be below the total return of the relevant benchmark. Investment banking transactions Nordea Markets has no ongoing or completed public investment banking transactions with Haldor Topsøe. In view of Nordea s position in its markets readers should however assume that the bank may currently or may in the coming three months and beyond be providing or seeking to provide confidential investment banking services to the company/ companies Underperform Over the next three months, the fixed income instrument's total return is expected to be below the total return of the relevant benchmark. All research is produced on an ad hoc basis and will be updated when the circumstances require it. Distribution of recommendations Recommendation Outperform Market perform Under perform Total As of 1 October 215 Count % Distribution 19% 52% 29% 1% Distribution of recommendations (transactions)* Recommendation Outperform Market perform Under perform Count % Distribution Total 28 As of 1 October 215 * Companies under coverage with which Nordea has ongoing or completed public investment banking transactions. 22% 64% 14% 1% Issuer Review This report has not been reviewed by the Issuer prior to publication. Nordea Bank AB (publ) Nordea Bank Danmark A/S Nordea Bank Finland Plc Nordea Bank Norge ASA Nordea Markets Division, Equities Nordea Markets Division, Equities Nordea Markets Division, Equities Nordea Markets Division, Equities Hamngatan 1 Strandgade 3 (PO Box 85) Aleksis Kiven katu 9, Helsinki Essendropsgate 7 SE Stockholm DK-9 Copenhagen C FI-2 Nordea N-368 Oslo Sweden Denmark Finland Norway Tel: Tel: Tel: Tel: Fax: Fax: Fax: Fax: Reg.no Reg.no Reg.no Reg.no Stockholm Copenhagen Helsinki Oslo