The Cuban Military s Frail Succession

Transcription

1 The Cuban Military s Frail Succession by Pedro Roig* In Cuba, the military gerontocracy refuses to recognize the failure of the Marxist experiment and is intending to recycle its own children into power. The failure of the communist system contrasts with the fierce tenacity of the military to remain in power. Today, the military is the principal institution in the island, exerting political and economic control and endorsing limited economic reforms to placate the Cuban population. The Armed Forces, MINFAR (Ministry of the Armed Forces) and MININT (Ministry of Internal Security) The military is the key power over political and economic decisions. Disciplined and well supplied, it holds a monopoly on power and repression. The senior and mid-level officer corps and family members enjoy a privileged quality of life The MINFAR maintains efficient levels of operation. The MININT has at its disposal experienced and violent intelligence units that provide detailed surveillance of the civil, economic and social activities of the citizenry. The military controls 65% of the economy. The military dominates the media.

2 Military members of the Politburo (Communist Party of Cuba) General of the Army Raúl Castro (83 years old) Supreme Chief of the Armed Forces, First Secretary of the Communist Party Commander of the Rebel Army (retired) José Machado Ventura (84 years old): Second Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Army Corps General Abelardo Furry Colomé (76 years old): Minister of the Interior (MININT). Army Corps General Leopoldo Cintras Frías (73 years old): Minister of the Armed Forces (MINFAR). Army Corps General Álvaro López Miera (1943-, 71 years old): First Vice Minister of the MINFAR, Chairman, Chiefs of Staff. Commander of the Revolution Ramiro Valdés (82 years old): Founder of the State Security Service. Has been very active in setting up the intelligence and repression apparatus in Venezuela. Adel Onofre Yzquierdo (retired military) (70 years old): First Vice Minister of the Economy. Was in charge of important enterprises controlled by the MINFAR. Army Corps General Ramón Espinosa (75 years old): Vice Minister of the MINFAR. Chapter 1, Article 5 of the current constitution describes the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) as the highest guiding force in society and in the State. As the highest authority of the PPC, the Politburo is the supreme power of the Cuban State. Note: the Politburo is made up of 15 members. Currently there are 14 active members (8 of which are military men).

3 The civilian and youthful faces of the Politburo Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez (54 years old): First Vice President of the Council of State and of Ministers. In 1982 he graduated in Electrical Engineering. In 1993 he joined the Communist Party (PCC). From 2009 to 2012 he was Minister of Higher Education. Bruno Rodríguez (56 years old): Minister of Foreign Relations. Was Cuba s UN ambassador. Director of the daily Juventud Rebelde and a member of the Secretariat of the National Student Federation (FEU) Marino Murillo (53 years old): Minister of Economics and Planning, Vice President of the Council of Ministers. He was a renowned member of the Communist Youth Union. He is a graduate of the National Defense College. The Civilian Front The military has introduced new younger civilian members into the politburo. They are: Miguel Díaz-Canel, Bruno Rodríguez and Marino Murillo. But power, as always, is held within the military barracks. Succession has to necessarily include the support of the Armed Forces, the only institution with real power in Cuba.

4 Ministry of the Armed Forces (MINFAR) (Main command structure) Army Corps General Leopoldo Cintras Frías (73 years old): Minister of the Armed Forces (MINFAR). Expert in the deployment of armored units. He distinguished himself in Africa where he commanded the southern front. Lacking charisma, he is an obedient follower of Raúl Castro. Army Corps General Álvaro López Miera (71 years old): First Vice Minister of the MINFAR, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Veteran of guerrilla struggles in Cuba and Africa. Astute and discreet, he is respected by the officer corps. Division General Leonardo Ramón Andollo (69 years old): Second Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff, Operations Chief of the MINFAR. Veteran of the African wars. Member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party. Travels frequently to Caracas where he maintains close ties with the Venezuelan military. Division General Luciano Morales Abad (68 years old): Chief of the Army of the West (includes Special Troops and the Armored Division). Veteran of the African wars. Member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party. Division General Raúl Rodríguez Lobaina: Chief of the Central Army (includes the Tank Regimen at La Paloma Base). Veteran of the African wars. Member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party. Division General Onelio Aguilera Bermúdez (61 years old): Chief of the Army of the East (includes Division 50 and the Border Brigade facing the U.S. Guantánamo Naval Base. Veteran of the African wars. Member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party.

5 Ministry of the Interior (MININT) Army Corps General Abelardo Colomé Furry (76 years old): Minister in charge of internal security (MININT), member of the Politburo and the Council of State. Veteran of the guerrilla war in Cuba and of the African wars. Military officer with extraordinary influence on Raúl Castro. There are reports that he may have serious health problems.. Division General Carlos Fernández Gondín (76 years old): First Vice Minister of the MININT. Veteran of the African wars. Is considered to be Raúl Castro s main spy tool in the midst of the Armed Forces. Arrogant and hungry for power, he lacks support in the military. Vice Admiral Julio César Gandarilla: Chief of Military Counterintelligence. In charge of Cuban State Security and Counterespionage in the Armed Forces. Member of the Central Committee of the Communist Party. He coordinates intelligence, penetration and brutal repression of dissident groups in Cuba. Brigadier General Alcibiades Muñoz (68 years old): Intelligence Director of the MININT. He excels on account of his long operational experience in the intelligence services. Pragmatic and efficient in his task of recruiting agents of influence and spies in U.S. federal government offices, media and universities. Brigadier General Humberto Francis Pardo (67 years old): Chief of the Personal Security Directorate of the MININT, commands an elite group with more than 3,000 troopers.

6 Legacy of the Privileged Class The legacy of the revolution is the economic and moral ruin of Cuba, but the nomenklatura enjoys a generous quota of benefits tied to the reins of power. It is an inheritance of privileges. For their children all the benefits; for the average Cuban the crumbs that are left over. For the gerontocracy, its children have the right age (at least 58 years of age) to begin to assume power. They are experts at revolutionary double morality and have first-hand knowledge of the mechanisms of corruption in place throughout Cuba s centralized economy. They are inheriting a society in ruins, without a charismatic leader to provide legitimacy and direction of the future. Army Corps General Álvaro López Miera (71 years old): Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff, one of the youngest of veterans of the Sierra Maestra war, with close ties to General Raúl Castro. He is one of the main military actors in charge of facilitating the succession. Brigadier General Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja (54 years old): son of General Guillermo Rodríguez, son-in-law of Raúl Castro and father of Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, head of Raúl s protective detail. López-Calleja heads up GAESA, a gigantic conglomerate of state and mixed enterprises, which makes him the czar of the economy and an outstanding heir in the military dynasty. Colonel Alejandro Castro Espín (49 years old): son of Raúl Castro, he is the Intelligence Coordinator of the Armed Forces and the Ministry of the Interior From this position of extraordinary power, Alejandro Castro participated in the 2014 Moscow bilateral meeting and in planning the details of President Vladimir Putin s trip to Havana. He is part of a select group of heirs in succession.

7 Fidel Castro Díaz-Balart (65 years old): in addition to his official duties and internal quarrels, he is a close acolyte of Raúl Castro. During the last six years he has been part of his uncle s close circle. During the Cold War, he developed close ties with the Soviet nomenklatura, which are useful to the Cuban regime today. Owing to the emblematic name, he was trained for high executive positions. General Maimir Mesa Ramos (52 years old): Minister of Communications. Former president of ETECSA, the state telecommunications company. He is considered an efficient and pragmatic manager. Colonel Manuel Marrero Cruz (50 years old): Minister of Tourism (MINTUR). An architect and former head of Gaviota S.A. he participated in the building of the Río de Luna and Río Mares Hotels at Esmeralda Beach near Holguín. In 2001, he was named President of Gaviota and in 2004 Minister of Tourism. Colonel Héctor Oroza Busutin: Used to head CIMEX S.A., which starting in 2011 came under the control of GAESA. Colonel Oroza Busutin directs the operations of 73 subsidiaries and 21 associated companies of which 61 reside abroad (all functioning exclusively in U.S. dollars or with strong currencies) from banks, fast food restaurants, car rental agencies, restaurants, hotels and jewelry stores. Colonel Gustavo Machín (53 years old): Director of Information of the Ministry of Foreign Relations. Son of Commander Gustavo Machín, who died in Bolivia with Che Guevara s guerrilla. Machín is a Colonel in the MININT and has been to Miami several times.

8 Some years ago Raúl Castro began to distribute the spoils of power among the family of military commanders and party bureaucrats. In this succession, the children of the nomenklatura are placing themselves in key positions. Ernesto Valdés Alonso, son of the infamous Ramiro Valdés, is the Information Secretary of the Cuban Embassy in China. Juan Carlos Ronda, son of General Alejandro Ronda, is the Information Technology Director at the National Bank; Ernesto Machado, son of Machado Ventura, is a Consultant to Foreign Investors; José Raúl Colomé, son of General Abelardo (Furry) Colomé, the Minister of the Interior (MININT), operates the best-equipped and supplied private restaurant in Havana, known as a paladar. Senén Casas, son of the late General Senén Casas, is the right-hand man of Alejandro Castro. Leopoldo Cintras, son of General Cintras Frías, and Enrique Lusson, son of General Lusson, are consultants to Cuban state companies in Angola; Ernesto Plasencia Escalante, nephew of the late Aníbal Escalante, is ambassador to Qatar. In this fashion hundreds of young people, related to the old nomenklatura, have joined the middle ranks of the Armed Forces in important positions in the government bureaucracy. The succession process is on the way. General Raúl Castro and grandson Raúl Rodríguez Castro, Chief of his Security Detail. (Raúl Rodríguez Castro is the son of Brigadier General Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja, head of GAESA).

9 Conclusions The military gerontocracy running Cuba have placed some of their children in important positions and promoted several civilians to the higher echelons of power so as to project an image of civilian influence and control. But the succession project faces grave obstacles in achieving legitimacy within existing time constraints. The decrease or even loss of the Venezuelan oil subsidy is an imminent problem that could endanger the stability of the succession regime. The absence of a charismatic leader would leave the military and top bureaucracy of the Party orphans of leadership and in search for a government of collegiate authority. Despite lack of charisma, Raúl Castro has controlled the military apparatus from the start. In 47 years as Minister of the Armed Forces, Raúl Castro gave shape to the MINFAR and MININT creating loyalties to his command structure. The absence, on account of death or disability, of Fidel and Raúl Castro, would create an enormous vacuum of power. Marxism, which was initially a venerated dogma among wide sectors of society, is today a failed ideology that cannot offer hope for a better life. Without faith in the dogma, the reason to fight for a mummified project becomes weak and marginal. The succession government would not have in its war chest the necessary ideals to demand loyalty or sacrifice. These factors contribute to the frailty of the current succession process creating several questions: Would a crisis within the Armed Forces be possible? Could a conflict break out between reformist officials and hard liners? Could the proper conditions come into being to provoke a popular rebellion? How would the Armed Forces react facing that possibility? Cuba is moving through its frail succession in the midst of economic and moral misery, leaving deep wounds in the vital roots of the nation. Meanwhile, unexpected developments will always surprise us in the course of history.

10 *Pedro Roig: a historian and lawyer, is an academic researcher at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban American Studies (ICCAS) at the University of Miami. He holds a Master s degree from the University of Miami and a Juris Doctor degree from St. Thomas University in Miami. Roig was the director of the InterAmerican Academy and headed up the Office for Cuba Broadcasts (OCB), which runs Radio and Television Martí ( ). He is also the author of numerous books including Martí: la lucha de los cubanos por la libertad and Death of a Dream: A History of Cuba. Roig is a veteran of Brigade 2506 (Bay of Pigs).