On the Assessment of Uncertainties in Projects and Organizations
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1 On the Assessment of Uncertainties in Projects and Organizations Roger Reksten Stølsnes Prosjekt 2006
2 Nomenclature Uncertainty: situations where the outcome is not known Uncertainty analysis: a systematic approach to identify, describe and evaluate uncertainties Uncertainty management: a systematic ongoing process that involves identifying, describing, evaluating, action planning, monitoring and updating the project relation to uncertainties General conditions: predictable an unpredictable internal, external and technical conditions that can influence project accomplishment
3 Main objective of the doctorate study Develop new insight, methodologies and models for uncertainty analysis and uncertainty management of projects Efforts of human, organizational and management conditions in a project are particular aspects that have been evaluated
4 The research question How can uncertainty related to general conditions be analyzed and managed in a simplistic and efficient way? What kind of general conditions can influence projects/organizations? To what degree do general conditions influence projects/organizations?
5 Presentation part 1: Some aspects of uncertainty analysis and management Knowledge Experience Input Method/ analysis Decision support Assumptionsn Composition of a analysis group Open and constructive communication in the analysis group
6 Some findings The largest source of error The choice of probability distributions The benefit of conducting an uncertainty analysis Identifying threats/opportunities in early stage Take action and follow up Uncertainty management Implement action plan Monitoring and updating Bypass and reduce possible threats Grasp opportunities
7 Uncertainty management Threat Threat is not managed Unwanted implication Uncertainty Threat is managed Optimization Opportunity Opportunity is managed Opportunity is not managed No optimization
8 Presentation part 2: A questionnaire The objective of the questionnaire Study different general conditions To what degree these may influence projects The importance general conditions are assigned by the respondents Study different business sectors
9 The questionnaire About the questionnaire 19 questions Response from: Construction (466 respondents) Offshore (165 respondents) Transportation (88 respondents) Energy (59 respondents) Did not state business sector (23 respondents)
10 A few questions and results Q9: General conditions that may influence project accomplishment are often divided into different categories. Prioritize these categories the way you think they can influence project accomplishment. By general conditions we mean all predictable and unpredictable internal, external and technical conditions that can influence project accomplishment.
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13 Q10: Prioritize the following categories the way you think they can be influenced/managed. Here the respondent should prioritize the same eight general conditions as in Q9, but this time with regards to the degree they thought they were able to influence/manage them.
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15 Q11: In your opinion and experience, should the different general conditions for project accomplishment be given more, less or unchanged consideration? Here the respondent should prioritize the same eight general conditions as in Q9 and Q10 but this time with regards to whether they should be given more, less or unchanged consideration.
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17 A few other results from the questionnaire About the candidate Most have more then 10 years of experience Most are project managers Higher priority with regards to general conditions Focus on general conditions in early stage
18 Presentation part 3: Evaluation of general conditions in a project
19 A suggested process
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