Week 1 (March 28): Introduction/Overview, including Role of Polling in Campaigns

Transcription

1 January 28, 2016 Course: The Strategic Uses of Survey Research in Political Campaigns Instructor: Jason McGrath Time: Wednesdays, 3:00 PM - 5:50 PM Quarter: Spring 2016 Course Number: Description: This course will provide the student with an introduction to the basic facets of survey research as it relates to modern political campaigns, from sampling (WHO gets interviewed), survey design (WHAT gets asked), data analysis techniques, and interpretation of results (WHAT does it mean). The main focus of the class will be how polling is used to understand public opinion and help candidates win elections. We will look at how the polling industry is changing, what challenges pollsters need to overcome in order to guide their candidates to victory, and how polling will affect the 2016 election at all levels. The course leader wears is an active Democratic polling consultant to dozens of campaigns (federal, state, and local) and organizations each cycle. Grades/Assignments: Final grades will be based on the following: 1. Class participation (25% of grade) 2. Questionnaire design (25% of grade): using a real world example, write a questionnaire for a benchmark survey. DUE: April 18 th 3. Focus group memo (25% of grade): write 3-4 page memo based off in-class focus group. DUE: May 9 th 4. Strategy memo (3-5 pages) and paid communications recommendations based on actual poll (toplines and cross-tabs) (25% of grade) Due: May 23 rd Readings/Texts: The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns, Sasha Issenberg, Crown Publishers, 2012 Polling and the Public: What Every Citizen Should Know, Herbert Asher, 8 th Edition, CQ Press, 2012 Political Polling In the Digital Age: The Challenge of Measuring and Understanding Public Opinion, edited by Kirby Goidel, Louisiana State University Press, 2011 Selected news articles Week 1 (March 28): Introduction/Overview, including Role of Polling in Campaigns Professor introduction Review syllabus, course requirements, and policies Student introduction Discussion on perceptions of political campaigns at the Presidential and local levels How a modern campaign is put together, with emphasis on opinion researcher Types of surveys, polls, and research designs What is the difference between public polls ( horse race ) and campaign polling Discuss timing of survey research projects How polling is used to influence campaign strategy and tactics

2 Readings For Week 1 Class: The Victory Lab: Prologue, Chapter 1 Polling and the Public: Chapter Week 2 (April 4): What goes into a survey instrument? Questionnaire design and opposition/self research **Guest Lecturer: Edward Chapman (policy/opposition research) How does a pollster construct a survey instrument? Question context, word choice, order How do we decide what to test and what not to test? What is the role of oppo and self in polling? Students will receive first assignment: drafting a survey instrument Readings For Week 2 Class: Polling and the Public: Chapter 2, Chapter 3 Political Polling In the Digital Age: Chapter 1, Chapter 3 Students will review public and proprietary questionnaires Week 3 (April 11): Sampling Issues, Data Collection, Modeling Types of survey administration methods Sampling, representativeness, and response rates Determining who gets into a poll s sample (students will help construct a universe for a low-turnout election) Weighting and adjusting of the sample A look at alternatives to traditional polling Readings For Week 3 Class: Polling and the Public: Chapter 4, Chapter 5 Political Polling In the Digital Age: Chapter 2, 7

3 Week 4 (April 18): Reading/interpreting polls and learning how polls/pollsters actually get used, including case study of how polling shaped strategy for a recent race (RACE TBD) **Guest Lecturer: Campaign manager/strategist or candidate How to CORRECTLY read a poll (making the numbers tell a story) How are polls used by the campaign and its consultants--discussion of message, strategy, targets Walk through actual poll presentation from recent survey First assignment (benchmark survey instrument) due Readings For Week 4 Class: The Victory Lab: Chapter 6, Chapter 8 Polling and the Public: Chapter 8 Political Polling In the Digital Age: Introduction Selected articles from case study election Week 5 (April 25): Focus Groups & Qualitative Research Discuss purposes of focus group/qualitative research and comparison to quantitative Interpretation (and mis-interpretation) of focus group research Bringing qualitative research online Class will work together to develop a moderator s guide for a focus group on local issues We ll then conduct an actual group with community members Students will receive second assignment: provide a written analysis of the in-class focus group Readings For Week 5 Class: Focus Group Methodology Week 6 (May 2): The practical application of survey research: Political advertising/messaging **Guest Lecturer: Ann Liston, Partner at A/L Media and Strategist on Obama 2012 campaign The role of polling and focus groups in creating media spots (and direct mail) Discussion of the trade-off between creativity and political insights ( THEM ) versus attitudinal data and strategic insights ( US ) Review online ad test for previous campaign and then show/discuss resulting ads Discussion of good ads vs. bad ads, different types of ads, when and where to run ads and how many times someone needs to see an ad before it sinks in (spoiler alert: a lot)

4 Readings For Week 6 Class: The Victory Lab: Chapter 3, Chapter 4, Chapter Week 7 (May 9): When polls get it wrong and a look at polling in the 2016 campaigns **Guest Lecturer: Republican pollster David Kanevsky, former VP at American Viewpoint and senior staffer at the National Republican Senatorial Committee **Guest Lecturer: Nathan Gonzales, Rothenberg Gonzales Political Report Why were the polls skewed in 2012? What happened in 2014? How did this impact campaign strategy? What are the challenges with polling in low turnout elections? (with a focus on Kentucky s 2015 Gubernatorial election) How did the 2014 polling affect the news coverage of major races? How are prognosticators covering 2016 given what happened in recent elections? What do Democratic and Republican pollsters have in common? (more than you might think) Discussion with renowned DC political pundits on political campaign coverage and their (give-and-take relationships) with pollsters and polls Second assignment (focus group analysis) due Students will receive final assignment: provide a written analysis a survey, along with recommendations for paid communications campaign, based on crosstabs and toplines of an actual survey Readings For Week 7 Class: Polling and the Public: Chapter 6, Chapter 7 Political Polling In the Digital Age: Chapter Survey Methods, Complex and Ever Evolving (Frank Newport) The GOP polling debacle (Alexander Burns, Politico)

5 Week 8 (May 16): (A) Targeting, Micro-targeting, Analytics, (B) Polling & Direct Mail **Guest Lecturer: Sasha Issenberg, author of The Victory Lab **Guest Lecturer: Terry Walsh, Strategy Group, Obama 2012 Targeting Director & direct mail consultant Analytics, Big Data, and other uses of telephone surveys The role of polling and focus groups in creating direct mail pieces; use of polling to help with direct mail targets **This class may overlap with the June 2015 NBC/WSJ poll, in which case we would use the NBC/WSJ poll as the vehicle to discuss the 2016 election Readings For Week 8 Class: The Victory Lab: Chapter 2, Chapter 5, Chapter 9, Epilogue Week 9 (May 23): Polling on issues, the future of campaign research and challenges in polling and Wrap-Up **Guest Lecturer: TENTATIVE: Mark Blumenthal, Survey Monkey Discussion of the permanent campaign (ie governing) Different types of polling online, IVR, etc and the comparative strengths and weaknesses Lower connection rates and how pollsters are adapting Discussion on how to enter the field and what opportunities exist Final assignment is due Readings For Week 9 Class: Polling and the Public: Chapter 9 Political Polling In the Digital Age: Chapter 5, 6 Why Policymakers Should Ignore Public Opinion Polls, Robert Weissberg (Policy Analysis) Political Polling In the Digital Age: Chapter 1, Chapter 2, Chapter 3, Chapter 7, Chapter 8

6