WINTER STORM JANUARY

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1 REPORT DATE: 26 JANUARY 2016 Event Date: JANUARY 2016 WINTER STORM JANUARY 3-Day snowfall accumulation 72 hours ending 7AM EST, 24 January. SOURCE: NOAA/NOHRSC Summary From January, a significant winter storm affected areas of the United States from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic to New England. The winter storm, unofficially named Jonas by the Weather Channel, produced significant snowfall totals from Washington D.C. to the New York Metro area, breaking many daily snowfall records. Strong winds together with blowing snow often reduced visibility below ¼ mile. Strong onshore winds brought hurricane-force wind gusts to some areas, and drove a storm surge to impact areas of Delaware and New Jersey. The storm also produced freezing rain over areas of the Carolinas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia, with severe thunderstorms over the Southeast. Media reports indicate at least 46 fatalities as a result of the storm. The storm rendered severe disruption to transportation including road, rail, air and local transit. The storm developed and strengthened along the boundary separating arctic air from warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic. 1

2 Impacts Media reports indicate at least 46 fatalities associated with the storm, resulting from vehicle accidents, carbon monoxide poisoning, and heart attacks while shovelling. Significant coastal flooding was reported in some areas of New Jersey resulting in flooded homes. At least 250,000 lost power during the storm. The storm also rendered severe transportation disruption to affected areas, including road, rail, air and local transit systems. Nearly 12,000 flights were cancelled over the weekend. Around 2,000 flights were cancelled or delayed Monday according to media reports. Some areas affected by the storm also suffered disruption to retail, restaurants, and entertainment. It will take time to reliably assess the full economic and insurance impacts of this event. Washington D.C. At least one fatality was reported when a person collapsed while shovelling snow, according to media reports. Federal government offices were closed as of noon Friday, and remain closed on Tuesday. The Washington D.C. mayor stated that city public schools would remain closed on Tuesday. The city suffered significant transportation disruption to road, rail and air, as well as local transit. Rail and bus services resumed limited service on Monday. Officials reported that all but one line on the Washington D.C. subway system would resume service Tuesday. Media reports indicate that the city has applied for federal disaster relief to aid in the cost of the snowstorm. New York Media reports indicate at least four fatalities in the state as a result of the storm. Emergency officials responded to over 400 auto accidents and towed over 200 vehicles by Sunday morning, according to the New York Police Department. A travel ban was issued to allow for snow removal and to preserve routes for emergency vehicles. The travel ban was lifted Sunday morning. After significant disruption, New York City subways, buses and Metro-North Railroad service were operating normally by Monday morning. Partial service on the Long Island Rail Road was restored on three of its twelve branches according to media reports. The New York Stock Exchange opened as usual on Monday morning, as did New York City schools. Snow removal efforts are ongoing, and have been challenging for areas of New York. Entertainment, restaurants and retail were all severely disrupted, including cancellation of a concert at Madison Square Garden. New Jersey At least three fatalities were reported by media in association with the storm. Coastal flooding was a significant concern due to storm surge, with moderate to major flooding affecting areas of Atlantic and Cape May Counties. Ocean City, Stone Harbor and Cape May experienced flood levels surpassing those of Sandy (2012) according to media reports. Road closures and some evacuations were necessary, and many homes flooded on North Wildwood s north side. Reports also indicate significant beach erosion as a result of storm surge and heavy surf. Power outages affected more than 90,000 customers during the storm, with most service restored by Sunday afternoon according to reports. 2

3 Pennsylvania Media reports indicate at least seven fatalities connected to the storm. A roof collapse was reported at a Downington church. On Friday night, a collision resulted in over 500 automobiles, trucks and buses stranded on a 16-mile stretch of interstate 76 in Somerset and Bedford Counties. At least 400 people sought refuge in shelters and hotels until their vehicles were freed. Philadelphia area SEPTA transit service was suspended on Sunday, with some exceptions. Many schools remained closed on Monday, with ongoing closures or delayed openings on Tuesday in the Philadelphia area. Delaware One fatality was reported as a result of a heart attack while shovelling snow. Coastal flooding was a concern along the Delaware coast, causing road closures and some evacuations in the Oak Orchard Community, according to media reports. Reports also indicate that the driving warning and state of emergency for Delaware were lifted as of Monday morning. Maryland Media reports indicate at least two fatalities related to the storm. A church roof collapsed in Montgomery County, Maryland. A woman was reported trapped in her car for three days in Accokeek. Power outages affected as many as 10,000 customers, with restoration to most by Sunday. A travel ban was in place in the City of Baltimore, and lifted early Sunday morning, although residents are still advised to avoid non-essential travel to aid snow-removal efforts. Schools remained closed on Tuesday according to media reports. Virginia At least nine fatalities were associated with the storm, according to media reports. In Loudoun County, a home burned to the ground on an unplowed road, where firefighters had to stretch hoses over 800 feet to reach the home; all occupants survived the fire. State police responded to nearly 1,600 vehicle crashes and over 2,500 disabled vehicles. Government offices and schools remained closed on Monday. North Carolina Media reports indicate at least six fatalities associated with auto accidents during the storm. About 150,000 customers lost power during the storm, with restoration to most by Sunday according to reports. The scale of power outages was associated with freezing rain affecting the state. 3

4 Meteorological Summary and Observations With arctic air in place across the eastern United States, and a boundary with warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, conditions were optimal to produce a significant winter storm. An upper-level disturbance interacting with this boundary enabled the development of a low pressure area which tracked across the southeastern U.S. before transferring to the North Carolina Outer Banks. The low then tracked along the coast before moving out into the Atlantic well offshore of Atlantic Canada. On 21 January, the storm left eight inches of snow near Little Rock, Arkansas, and 0.3 inches of ice in Mozelle, Kentucky. Severe thunderstorms in the warm sector of the storm produced widespread hail and nontornadic wind reports. One tornado was reported in Lamar Co., Mississippi, rendering significant damage to homes according to the U.S. Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The storm then produced record-setting daily and event-total snowfalls, together with significant icing for areas of Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia and the Carolinas. The storm also brought windy conditions over a large area, with wind gusts of 75 mph reported at Dewey Beach, Delaware and Langley AFB, Virginia. Windy conditions together with blowing snow caused significantly reduced visibility from Washington D.C. to the New York Metro area, often reduced below ¼ mile. Historical snowfall amounts were observed, affecting high-population areas from Washington D.C. to the New York Metro area. The snowstorm produced an event total of 26.8 inches of snow in New York Central Park, the second- highest total for any storm since 1869, and barely missing the 26.9 inches set in February Calendar day snowfall records were broken at New York Central Park, La Guardia Airport, and JFK Airport, as well as Newark, New Jersey, Allentown, Pennsylvania, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and Baltimore, Maryland. Event total snowfall records were set at New York LaGuardia and JFK Airports, Newark, New Jersey, Allentown, Pennsylvania, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and Baltimore, Maryland. The excessive snowfall amounts were a result of the slow motion of the storm, aggressive upper-level storm dynamics, and abundant moisture. Rotation and expansion of the active area of snowfall led to higher snowfall amounts than first expected. Banding structures within the active area of snowfall, together with strong winds also caused snowfall accumulations to vary significantly from region to region. Winter storm and blizzard watches were issued by the National Weather Service well in advance of the storm. The storm brought persistent strong, onshore winds, leading to a notable storm surge as high as 4-5 feet for coastal Delaware, Delaware Bay and southern, coastal New Jersey. This storm surge, coupled with a full moon and astronomical high tide, brought record-setting tidal levels to coastal areas of Delaware and southern New Jersey. A record tide of 9.27 feet was recorded (relative to mean lower low water) at Lewes, Delaware, surpassing the previous record of 9.20 feet recorded in March, Record high tides were also reported in Cape May and Stone Harbor, New Jersey, surpassing the tidal levels of Sandy (2012). The surge heights and resulting impacts for points north of Atlantic City were of much lesser severity. Selected unofficial wind, freezing rain and snow observations follow on the next pages. 4

5 Selected Storm-Total Snowfall Estimates (unofficial) Source: National Weather Service APPROXIMATE LOCATION SNOWFALL (inches) Glengary, WV 42.0 Shepherdstown, WV 40.5 Shenandoah Junction, WV 35.5 Philmont, VA 39.0 Gainesboro, VA 38.0 Bluemont, VA 35.0 Dulles International, VA 28.3 Alexandria, VA 19.0 Reagan National Airport, VA 17.8 Richmond, VA 11.4 Redhouse, MD 38.0 Clear Spring, MD 37.0 Williamsport, MD 33.2 BWI Airport, MD 29.2 Baltimore, MD 16.0 Mechanicsburg, PA 36.9 Somerset, PA 35.5 Allentown, PA 31.9 Lehigh Valley International, PA 31.7 Harrisburg International, PA 28.6 Philadelphia International, PA 22.4 JFK Airport, NY 30.5 Hicksville, NY 29.6 La Guardia Airport, NY 27.9 New York Central Park, NY 26.8 Brooklyn, NY 27.0 Yonkers, NY 20.5 Islip, NY 25.9 Mine Hill, NJ 35.0 Morris Plains, NJ 33.0 Newark International, NJ 28.1 East Brunswick, NJ 24.0 Trenton, NJ 22.0 Mount Holly NWS Station, NJ 20.5 Atlantic City International, NJ 13.4 Woodside, DE 17.2 New Castle Co. Airport, DE 16.1 Dover, DE 14.2 Newark, DE 12.0 Washington D.C. Nat l Zoo 22.4 Anacostia 19.0 Monroe, CT 21.0 Norwalk, CT

6 APPROXIMATE LOCATION SNOWFALL (inches) Bridgeport Airport, CT 12.0 West Harwich, MA 15.5 Nantucket, MA 11.5 Boston, MA 8.2 Old Fort, NC 16.0 Lawson, KY 19.4 Argyle, KY 19.0 Liberty, KY 19.0 Fairview, NC 12.0 Asheville, NC 8.0 Dillard, GA 7.5 Macedonia, GA 6.0 Clayton, GA 4.9 Oxford, MS 2.0 Clarksdale, MS 1.0 North Little Rock, AR 8.0 Austin, AR 7.0 Harvest, AL 3.5 Crossville, AL 2.5 Lafayette, TN 13.5 Jamestown, TN 11.0 Nashville, TN 7.1 Chesnee, SC 7.0 Landrum, SC 6.0 Block Island, RI 13.0 Providence, RI 7.0 Rockville, RI 10.0 Ironton, OH 9.5 Athens, OH 7.0 Selected Storm-Total Freezing Rain Estimates (unofficial) Source: National Weather Service APPROXIMATE LOCATION ACCUMULATION (inches) Mozelle, KY 0.30 Corbin, KY 0.25 Bowling Green, KY 0.22 Carrboro, NC 0.25 Garner, NC 0.25 Snow Hill, NC 0.20 Fort Mill, SC 0.50 Jefferson, SC 0.25 Lancaster, SC 0.25 Clarksville, TN 0.23 Westmoreland, TN 0.15 Franklin, VA

7 Selected Peak Wind Gusts (unofficial) Source: National Weather Service APPROXIMATE LOCATION WIND GUST (mph) Dewey Beach, DE 75 Siasconsett, MA 73 Nantucket, MA 69 Ocean City, MD 62 Ocean City, NJ 61 Atlantic City International, NJ 58 Langley AFB, VA 75 Sources: Reuters, Associated Press, The New York Times, The Weather Channel, U.S. National Weather Service, U.S. Storm Prediction Center, U.S. Weather Prediction Center. For more CAT-i reports and further information on the service, please go to Disclaimer Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC, Guy Carpenter & Company Ltd. or Guy Carpenter & Company, S.A.S., as applicable (collectively referred to herein as Guy Carpenter ) provides this publication for general informational purposes only, and does not accept responsibility for the completeness or accuracy of the information contained herein. All information used in this report is based on publicly available information, as of a specified date. Readers are cautioned against placing undue reliance upon any statements contained herein. Guy Carpenter does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise the material herein, regardless of new data, or otherwise. This document is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any financial instrument or reinsurance program. This report is proprietary to Guy Carpenter. The dissemination, reproduction or use of this report without Guy Carpenter s express written permission is prohibited. 7