Disaster Risk Assessment:
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1 Disaster Risk Assessment: Disaster Risk Profiling Dr. Jianping Yan Disaster Risk Assessment Specialist
2 Session Outline What risk information is required? How to present risks? How to profile risk? How to structure risk atlas?
3 How to Understand Risk? Understanding Risk How likely is it? What can happen? What are the impacts? Historic experience Risk Assessment Foundation Analytic methods Knowledge & intuition
4 Development Processes Disaster Management Strategic planning Disaster mitigation Policy making Regulation Infrastructure protection Engineering design Education Risk Information Disaster preparedness Disaster response Disaster recovery Insurance
5 Requirements of risk information Evidence-based Quantitative Systematic Comprehensive Complete Multi-purposes Dynamic
6 Ways to Present Risks Risk matrix Risk curve Factsheets Risk map
7 Risk Matrix (1) Risk Level Very high risk High risk Moderate risk Low risk Very low risk
8 Risk Matrix (2)
9 Example Very likely o Probability Likely Possible o Less possible 1 o 2 o Rare o Catastrophic Disastrous Serious Moderate Minor Severity
10 Global Risks Landscape (WEF) Global Risks Landscape 2009 (by economic loss)
11 Global Risks Landscape (WEF) Global Risks Landscape 2009 (by economic loss) Global Risks Landscape 2010 (by economic loss)
12 Global Risks Landscape (WEF) Global Risks Landscape 2009 (by economic loss) Global Risks Landscape 2010 (by economic loss) Global Risks Landscape 2009 (by Human impact)
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17 Risk Curve Chronic risk Disaster risk
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20 Flood Risk Map 1% AEP = 100 Yr Return Period
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22 What is (Disaster) Risk Profile? A snapshot of all the risks a target human system is subject to within a given timeframe. A simple risk profile includes a set of hazard scenarios, potential losses, and the probability of occurrence. A more comprehensive risk profile may include impacts of risk, categorization of risks, relative priority of the risks, acceptable levels of risk, linkages between different levels of risks, ways of measuring the risk (qualitative and quantitative), key risk areas/hotspots, risk reduction measures, capacity for risk treatment, learning needs and tools, etc.
23 Multi-Dimension Risk Profile Multi-levels of government Multi-sectors at risk Multi-hazard systems Multitimeframes
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26 Summary Risk profile is a snapshot of all the risks a target community is subject to within a given timeframe. It should be evidence-based, comprehensive, complete, user-friendly. There are 4 ways to present risk profiles risk matrix, risk curve, fact table, and risk maps. A contextual framework for disaster risk profiling is presented, including the structure of National Risk Atlas.
27 Any Questions?
Disaster Risk Assessment:
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