Poverty and Growth: Lessons from Uninspiring or negative economic growth contexts

Transcription

1 Poverty and Growth: Lessons from Uninspiring or negative economic growth contexts Murray Leibbrandt (SALDRU, UCT) Mapping the Future of Development Economics UNU-WIDER 3o th Anniversary Conference September 2015, Helsinki, Finland

2 This is really a within-group variance exercise In my case, the not-growth group. How constraining is this? Also not just income. How useful is this? With great attention to data within each country. Even one of the organising principles of the book.

3 Côte d Ivoire

4 Number of political violence events,

5 GDP per capita and cash crop income

6 GDP per capita, cash crop income and oil income

7 Cumulative distribution function of consumption per capita across time

8 Growth incidence curves

9 Preconditions for development Implosion versus shocks versus periodic crises

10 Madagascar

11 Poverty Thousands of 2011 Ariary Poverty and real per capita GDP, Madagascar Poverty - headcount ratio Poverty - depth Poverty - severity Per capita GDP 0.0

12 Poverty and real GDP by sector, Madagascar

13 Stunting rates in Madagascar National Gender Male Female Residence Urban Rural

14 Cameroon

15 GDP per capita of Cameroon in constant local currency values

16 Trends in monetary poverty national and urban and rural areas, National Headcount Urban Headcount Rural Headcount

17 Growth Poverty Decomposition A decomposition of changes in poverty between into growth and redistribution components shows: The growth effect plays an important part in accounting for urban poverty reduction and rural poverty increase, but that there is also a strong poverty-reducing redistribution effect in urban areas

18 Non-Monetary Measures Given Cameroon s income level, and comparing to other countries in SSA, The levels of the outcomes of the non-monetary indicators do raise serious questions about the effectiveness of public service delivery in health and education among other areas. The main cities may have respectable outcome in these indicators. The rest of the country lags significantly behind.

19 Kenya

20 Incomes by source, % Trad.agric. Wages/sal. Op. Surplus

21 Income poverty in Kenya (Sen s Index),

22 Labour income share in GDP, Remuneration/total factor income

23 Growth of formal and informal employment and real earnings of formal labour, Real average earnings growth (%) Formal employment growth (%) Informal employment growth (%)

24 Region Absolute poverty measures (%) for Headcount ratio 1994 Poverty gap 1994 Kenya Severity of poverty 1994 Headcount ratio 1997 Poverty gap 1997 Severity of poverty 1997 Headcount ratio 2005/06 Poverty gap 2005/06 National Urban poverty overall Rural poverty Overall Severity of poverty 2005/06

25 South Africa

26 Trends in Money-Metric Well-being

27 Trends in Non-money-metric Poverty Non-income/expenditure measures tell a more positive story Asset poverty has declined significantly as access to water, electricity, sanitation and housing has increased Multidimensional measures of poverty add access to education and health and also show strong declines in non-money poverty

28 Poverty and Prices

29 So what is driving these results? Average?Annual?Price?Change?(Percent) alctob_tobacco housing_electricity Items in this and the diagonally opposite quadrant raise inflation for poor relative to non-poor food_milk nalcbev_hot food_oils food_veggies food_meat hhcontents_supplies food_sugar food_cereals Ratio?of?Weights?(Poorest?40%?:?Richest?60%) Four?items?with?negative?overall?price?changes?were?omitted?from?the?scatter?plot.

30 Concluding Points Project is about prices. Were these helpful or not? Multidimensional poverty and the quality of social expenditures Look at social assistance policies,, maybe with the same expenditure just much better? But with low growth the trade-offs are harder Does the commitment to the poor remain If so, how is it financed? Increased taxes? Tax reform? User fees? Aid!