International Comparison of Housing Risk Premia

Transcription

1 Innaional Compaion of Houing Rik Pmia Chi Julliad ondon School of Economic and Gac Wong Whaon School of Buin Pliminay Vion: Fo Dicuion and Ciicim Only Yiia Gu and Alxanda Infld povidd xclln ach aianc. Coponding auho: Gac Wong, 400 SH-DH, 3620 ocu Walk, Philadlphia, PA (25)

2 Pliminay. Inoducion Ealy liau ugg ubanial ik-adud un o al a. (Buggman, Chn and Thibodau, Ibboon and Silgl, Hazll, Hkman and Mil) Chan, Hndho and Sand (990), uing un o U.S.-lid quiy REIT, how ha h al a ik pmium i likly o b caud by h uag of moohd, appaial houing pic daa which unda h volailiy of un. Thi pap conibu o hi dba by fi conucing a panl of houing ik pmia fo 3 dvlopd couni ov a long ampl piod (966:Q3 o 2004:Q4), and hn xploing h laionhip of h ik pmia o chang in h financial mak dph, quiy mak acivii, popy ax ym, ubanizaion and dvlopmn o zoning gulaion. By compaing h xpinc of houing mak in vaiou dvlopd couni, hi pap add o ou undanding of wha coniu h al a ik pmium. Compad o h un o quiy, al a un a laivly lil udid. On obacl i h lack of liabl anacion daa. Innaional compaion a paiculaly cac bcau of daa limiaion ouid h Unid Sa. Th dawback of im i udi of a un, howv, i hi lack of pow o diinguih among vaiou macoconomic dvlopmn ha may hav ignifican co-movmn. W fill in hi gap in h liau by xploiing a ich daa and by focuing on panl analy. Thin OECD couni a udid: Aualia, Canada, Dnmak, Fanc, Ialy, Japan, h Nhland, Noway, Spain, Swdn, Swizland, Unid Kingdom and h Unid Sa. Gmany i omid fom h pliminay ul pnd bcau of h limid availabiliy of conin daa houghou h ampl piod. 2

3 Pliminay 2. Eimaing h Houing Rik Pmia A. On h Saionaiy of h Pic-n Raio In pincipl, an agn could ih buy o n a hou o civ h am vic flow. Howv, ning and buying a hou a no pfc ubiu inc houhold migh div xa uiliy fom owning a hou (.g. abiliy o cuomiz h inio, pid of ownhip). Moov, popi fo n migh on avag b diffn fom popi fo al. 2 Nvhl, long-un movmn in h n lvl hould capu long-un movmn in h vic flow. Alo, Gallin (2004) find ha hou pic and n a co-ingad (i.. aionay) and ha h pic-n aio i a good pdico of fuu pic and n chang. 3 Finally, focuing on h pic-n aio i analogou o h commonly ud pic-dividnd aio o analyz h ock mak. Dno wih P and pcivly h pic and n of houing. Digading ax and dpciaion, h andad a picing laion among h vaiabl will b P [ m ( P )] = E, wh m, i h ochaic dicoun faco bwn and. 4 Iaing fowad w hav P = E m, E [ lim m, T P T ] T = 2 Th hou pic indx flc all yp of dwlling whil n nd o ovwigh mall and low qualiy dwlling. Givn ha high qualiy hou flucua mo ov h buin cycl, w would hav o conol fo buin cycl pan in h mpiical analyi. 3 No ha Gallin (2003) mpiically c h hypohi of co-ingaion bwn pic and incom uing panl-daa fo co-ingaion, ha hav bn hown o b mo powful han h imi analog. Thi impli ha h commonly ud o cocion pnaion of pic and incom would lad o onou fquni infnc. 4 Fo xampl, in h xbook C-CAPM w would hav u' ( C ) m = β β ( γ ln C ), u' ( C ) wh γ i h laiv ik avion cofficin and 0 < β < i h in-mpoal dicoun faco. 3

4 Pliminay 4 = =, m E wh w aumd ha h la m go o zo in xpcaion (hi anvaliy condiion baically ul ou xploiv bubbl pah fo h pic lvl). Dividing boh id by, w hav 5 = = = = 0,, m E m E P. Thi la xpion giv wo impoan mag. Fi, und vy mild gulaiy condiion, 6 h pic-n aio will b aionay, uifying on a hoical gound h mpiical finding of Gallin (2004). Scond, h pic n aio i h dicound um of fuu n gowh a and cai infomaion gading boh h fuu xpcd n gowh and, mo impoanly, h implid dicoun faco ha will b h focu of ou analyi. In h nx cion w puh hi inuiion vn fuh o back up h 5 No ha h I am uing h fac ha = = 0,, m m 6 Fo xampl, in h xbook C-CAPM w would hav = = ) ln ( C E P γ β implying ha h aionaiy of conumpion and n gowh a and h aumpion of boh i having fini cond momn would b nough o dliv a aionay pic n aio. To hi in anoh way, no ha in a wold in which n follow a dminiic pah w would hav f R P = = = 0 β wh f R i h go ik f a bwn and and I ud h fac ha [ ] f R m E, =

5 Pliminay (unobvd) quid a of un on houing invmn fom h obvabl pic n aio and n gowh a. B. Implid Expcd Run Th go un on houing, R, i givn by h following accouning idniy h P Rh, = P Following Campbll and Shill (988), w log-linaiz hi laion aound h ady a. Und h aumpion ha h pic-n aio i aionay, w can log-linaiz h la quaion a ( ρ ) k ρ( p l ) ( p l ) l h, = wh h, := log R h,, p := log P, l := log, l := l l, ρ := /( xp( l p)), l p i h long un avag log n-pic aio, and k i a conan. Th log pic-n aio can b hfo win (digading a conan m) a a lina combinaion of fuu n gowh, fuu un on houing and a minal valu p T T T = lim ρ ( l h, ) ρ ( p T l T ) T () = 0 l Moving o xc n gowh a, l T = l, and xc un (ik pmia) on houing, h, = h,, wh i h log al ik f a, h pic-n aio can b xpd a p l = [ l ] T ρ h, lim ρ ( p T l T ) (2) T = 0 5

6 Pliminay Thi qualiy ha o hold x-po fo any alizaion and hnc, hold x-an in xpcaion fo any pobabiliy mau ha i p l = = 0 E T [ l h, ] E [ lim ρ ( p T l T )] ρ (3) T Auming ha h anvaliy condiion hold (i.. uling ou h pnc of ininic bubbl7) w hav = 0 [ l ] p l = ρ E (4) h, Thi la xpion ha a aighfowad conomic inpaion: if h pic-n aio i high oady, agn ih xpc high fuu n gowh a o low fuu dicoun a. Mo impoanly h la xpion can b -aangd o xp h mak xpcaion of houing ik pmia a a funcion of h pic n aio and xpcd n gowh a Eh, = ρ E l ( p l ) = 0 = 0 ρ. Thfo, w can back up im vaiaion in ik pmia fom h im vaiaion in n gowh a and h pic n aio. In paicula, dfining wih ˆ E l h conin ima of h xpcd n gowh in piod condiional on h infomaion availabl a im, w can ima h fuu dicound am of ik pmia (l i b dnod by ˆ h, ) a 7 S Foo and Obfld (99). 6

7 Pliminay ˆ := ˆ ρ E l ( p l ) h, = 0 Moov, w can idnify h im innovaion in ik pmia (l i b dnod by ~ h, ) a ~ ρ. = ˆ ˆ = ˆ ˆ, ) ˆ h : ( E E h, ( E E ) l ( p l ) = 0 C. Empiical Implmnaion To conuc ˆ and h, ~, w follow Campbll (99) and compu h obciv h, xpcaion of n gowh a uing a ducd fom VAR. Conid h VAR 8 z ε = Az wh z i a n x vco of im i and A i a n x n maix of cofficin. Wihou lo of gnaliy, aum ha l i h fi vaiabl includd in z and l b a n x vco ha ha ny fo h fi lmn and zo lwh. Dnoing wih Ê, h VAR foca opao condiional on h infomaion availabl a im (baically w poxy aional xpcaion wih lina pocion in h pii of Sim), w hav ha ˆ ˆ ˆ = [ A z ] E z = A z E l ' ( ˆ ˆ ) ( ˆ ˆ ˆ ) ' [ ˆ E ˆ E z = ε E E l = A ε ] wh Â a h VAR imad cofficin and εˆ a h imad idual. Thfo = 0 [ ˆ A z ] ˆ h, = ρ ' ( p l ), 8 Thi i wihou lo of gnaliy inc a VAR wih m lag can alway b win in an auo-giv fom of od on. 7

8 Pliminay ~ ' ( I ρ Aˆ) ˆ ε ( p h, = ha i, in ach piod w can ima (up o a conan) xpcd fuu ik pmia and innovaion o ik pmia a a funcion of obvabl vaiabl. Th vaiabl includd in ou imaion a GDP gowh a, inflaion-adud ik-f in a, log houing pic-n aio, n gowh a and a buin cycl poxy. 9 Moov, no ha inc p l ) = log( P / ), and ha ou idnificaion i ( xac up o a conan, w hav ha o implmn hi appoach mpiically w nd o know h log pic n aio only up o a conan i.. w only nd hou pic indx l ), and nal pic indx whil h xac lvl of P / i no ncay (ha i, w nd h indx o only ac h im vaiaion in n and pic). 3. Explaining h Houing Rik Pmia To inviga h vaiaion of ˆ abov, h following gion i pfomd: h, () R h = α βx h C h Ya Qua ε h, wh R h i h dmand xc un ( ˆ h ) fo couny h a im. X h a im-vaying, couny-pcific mau lad o dvlopmn of financial and quiy mak, h popy ax ym, ubanizaion and zoning gulaion which a dcibd in dail blow. C h capu any couny-pcific, non-im-vaying faco, which includ bu a no limid o iniial condiion a h a of h ampl piod,, 9 Following Hodick and Pco (997), w imad: y = g c g = 2g g _2 v wh y i GDP gowh fom qua - 5 o qua, g i h unobvd a vaiabl o capu h mooh im- vaying nd, and c h cyclical componn. Th vaianc of v i nomalizd o b /600 im h vaianc of h cyclical componn, c, a i i cuomay wih qualy daa. Thi a-pac pnaion i imad via Kalman fil and Kalman mooh. 8

9 Pliminay yp of udiciay ym and gogaphical locaion. 0 Th combind xplanaoy pow of h h goup of fixd ffc i laivly low (R-quad=0.07). To accoun fo ponial ial colaion in ε h, Nwy-W andad o a pod. Two vion of quaion () a hown houghou hi pap, wih and wihou h ya and qua fixd ffc. A comphniv panl daa wa compild o mau dvlopmn in h financial mak, quiy mak, dmogaphic and lad iniuion. H w dicu colaion bwn h imad ik pmia and faco ha a obu o aonabl chang in pcificaion and vaiabl dfiniion. Oh ul a availabl upon qu. Tabl how h ummay aiic of all vaiabl in h gion pnd. A. Db and Equiy Mak I i no upiing ha h iz of h banking co (laiv o GDP), which flc h dph and ophiicaion of h cdi mak, ha a ngaiv colaion wih h houing pmia (column ad 2). Th a o obain cdi i likly o duc xpcd ik. On h oh hand, wo mau of ockmak liquidiy oal valud add a a aio of GDP and h unov aio how a poiiv laionhip wih h houing ik pmia, which i omwha upiing (column 3 o 6). Two oh mau of ockmak dvlopmn, h aio of ockmak capializaion o GDP and h aio of oal quiy iu o GDP, do no hav aiically ignifican colaion wih h houing pmia. On nowohy ul in Tabl 2 i how abl and obu h colaion bwn ik pmia and mau of db and quiy mak dvlopmn a. Alhough 0 Wih h xcpion of Aualia, which oind h OECD in 97, all oh couni in ou ampl w oiginal mmb couni. A dummy conolling fo h accion da i no ignifican in any of h pcificaion howd in hi pap. 9

10 Pliminay h xi a poiiv colaion bwn h db and quiy mak indicao (=0.527), hi laionhip o h houing pmia m o b mo o l indpndn, a hown in column 7 o 0. I i alo wohwhil o poin ou ha non of h oh vaiabl xplod blow ha imila xplanaoy pow. B. Iniuion and Dmogaphic In all ul ha follow, w conol fo h log aio of dpoi mony bank a o GDP and h log aio of ockmak oal valu add o GDP. Rul uing log ockmak unov aio a vy imila (Tabl 3A and 4A). Th aio of fdal o local oal popy ax vnu, which poxi fo how cnalizd h ax ym i concning al a, i poiivly colad wih ik pmia (column and 2, Tabl 3). Thi i conin wih h xiing liau on how dcnalizaion pomo fficincy. Anoh iniuional diffnc w inviga i h maximum loan-o-valu (TV) aio. Alhough h maximum TV aio do no how much vaiaion ov im wihin ach couny, i ha a abl and ngaiv laionhip wih houing ik pmia (column 3 and 4). A high TV aio pumably hlp fom a mo ubanial and abl ouc of houing dmand. W xpc hi impac o diffnia by incom gowh givn h am chang in h maximum TV aio, h high h incom gowh h lag (in abolu valu) i impac hould b. Whil column 5 o 8 do how a ngaiv and ignifican inacion m (bwn GDP gowh and h maximum TV aio), h main ffc bcom l ignifican and poiiv. Thi migh b du o h lack Daa on maximum TV aio a obaind fom Tabl 2 in Almida, Campllo and iu (woking pap, 2006). 0

11 Pliminay of aiical pow o idnify h pci impac of a faco wih limid im vaiaion wihin couni. Th la wo column xplo on dimnion of dmogaphic uban populaion gowh. I i uncla how hi migh impac h houing ik pmia: whil ubanizaion migh imply houing dmand gowh, i migh alo indica apid dmogaphic chang ha inoduc uncainy o h mak. Ou daa how ha a high a of uban populaion gowh m o cola wih a high houing pmia. Compaing Tabl 2 and 3, mau of db and quiy mak hav aonably abl and gnally obu colaion wih h houing ik pmia. C. Dvlopmnal o Zoning Rgulaion Whil w acknowldg h difficuly o maningfully mau zoning chang a a naional lvl, w amp o capu and xplo mao chang in ach of h couni. W achd houghou govnmn publicaion, zoning manual, lgal fnc and al a building guid and cam up wih a li of gulaion ha ook ffc duing ou ampl piod. Th yp of gulaion and ou. Dcnalizaion f o whn h zoning o building applicaion poc i mo dcnalizd, ypically inoducing a high dg of vaiaion in m of zoning icivn wihin h couny. Chang wih a Social focu moly concn ih paicipaion of h gnal public o h igh of cun idn o ic dvlopmn on nvionmnal gound. A hid yp includ Simplificaion o amlining of h zoning applicaion poc. Th w hav a h momn goupd und Oh, which dv fuh udy.

12 Pliminay Column and 2 how val ining ul. Houing ik pmium inca wih mo dcnalizaion o ocial focu in h zoning poc. Thi i phap no upiing bcau i i mo coly o lan how o dal wih a ym ha vai fom plac o plac wihin h couny. Similaly, mo communiy paicipaion impli a mo complx gam wih play wih diffn obciv. In column h wo cofficin do no ignificanly diff fom ach oh, hfo w xpimn wih a combind mau which i h impl addiion of h wo indicao, which poduc ul which a makably imila (column 3 and 4). Cofficin of h unclaifid ( Oh ) gulaion a ignifican and ngaiv in all pcificaion. I i puzzling ha ffo o implify h ym do no m o hav any ignifican impac on h houing pmium. W hav omid hi goup fo column 5 o 8, which do no chang ou pviou concluion. 4. Concluion Th pow of hi pap div fom ou abiliy o conol fo couny-lvl fixd ffc, which abob h impac of iniial condiion and oh non-im-vaying faco, and inviga ignifican faco ha commonly impac h voluion of h houing ik pmium in diffn mak. W hav idnifid impoan ol ha financial mak dvlopmn and vaiou iniuion play, om of which dmand fuh and a mo daild udy. Th includ liquidiy in h quiy mak and diffn yp of zoning. An innaional compaion no only allow u o xplo h univaliy of laionhip bwn conomic quanii, bu i i alo imly fo h incaingly ingad global conomy. Tadiionally al a i on of h mao a which lack 2

13 Pliminay innaional abiag, bu wih h dvlopmn of vaiou invmn vhicl, h incad flow of global capial and libalizaion of local popy law, w a ing mo foign ownhip and dvlopmn of al a in many couni. I i indd logical o daw lon fom diffn mak by xploing h poibilii of a common, undlying mak mchanim. 3

14 Pliminay Rfnc Campbll, J. Y. (99):.A Vaianc Dcompoiion fo Sock Run,.Economic Jounal, 0, Campbll, J. Y., and R. J. Shill (988):.Th Dividnd-Pic Raio and Expcaion of Fuu Dividnd and Dicoun Faco,.Rviw of Financial Sudi, (3), Foo, K. A., and M. Obfld (99):.Ininic Bubbl: Th Ca of Sock Pic,.Amican Economic Rviw, 8(5), Gallin, J. (2003):.Th ong-run Rlaionhip bwn Hou Pic and Incom: Evidnc fom ocal Houing Mak,.Boad of Govno of h Fdal Rv Dicuion Pap (2004):.Th ong-run Rlaionhip bwn Hou Pic and Rn,.Boad of Govno of h Fdal Rv Dicuion Pap

15 Tabl : Summay Saiic Man Mdian No. of Ob (.d.) Raio of Dpoi Mony Bank Bank A o GDP (0.32) Raio of Sockmak Toal Valu Tadd o GDP (0.297) Sockmak Tunov Raio (0.452) Raio of Popy Tax Rvnu: Fdal To ocal (57.28) Annual Uban Populaion Gowh: S-in Inpolaion, % (0.883) Max TV Raio (0.0) Ya-on-Ya GDP Gowh, % (22.36) Zoning Dummy: Dcnalizaion (0.283) Zoning Dummy: Social (Envionmn Public Paicipaion) Focu (0.356) Zoning Dummy: Simplificaion, Conolidaion And Samlining (0.204) Zoning Dummy: Oh (0.24)

16 Tabl 2. Cdi Mak, Sockmak and Houing Rik Pmia Dpndn Vaiabl: Dmand Houing Rik Pmia () (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (0) og Raio of Dpoi Mony Bank -0.34*** ** -0.79*** -0.02*** -0.65*** -0.0*** Bank A o GDP (0.02) (0.028) (0.027) (0.030) (0.025) (0.030) og Raio of Sockmak 0.04*** 0.047*** 0.032*** 0.046*** Toal Valu Tadd o GDP (0.005) (0.008) (0.005) (0.008) og Sockmak Tunov Raio 0.038*** 0.067*** 0.057*** 0.066*** (0.007) (0.009) (0.008) (0.00) Couny Fixd Effc Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Ya Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y No Y Qua Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y No Y Obvaion R-quad Co(gdp_dmb, gdp_ock)= Nwy-W andad o in panh * ignifican a 0%; ** ignifican a 5%; *** ignifican a %

17 Tabl 3. Popy Tax, Uban Populaion Gowh, Maximum TV Raio and Houing Rik Pmia Dpndn Vaiabl: Dmand Houing Rik Pmia () (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (0) og Raio of Dpoi Mony Bank -0.20*** -0.64*** -0.50*** *** *** *** *** Bank A o GDP (0.029) (0.035) (0.030) (0.034) (0.049) (0.055) (0.049) (0.062) (0.030) (0.030) og Raio of Sockmak 0.046*** 0.049*** 0.030*** 0.045*** ** *** 0.037*** 0.049*** Toal Valu Tadd o GDP (0.006) (0.009) (0.006) (0.009) (0.007) (0.00) (0.007) (0.0) (0.006) (0.008) og Raio of Popy Tax Rvnu: 0.029*** 0.032*** Fdal To ocal (0.005) (0.005) og Max TV Raio -0.28** *** 0.295* 0.707** (0.32) (0.69) (0.6) (0.286) Inacion: og Max TV Raio & -0.63* *** -0.48* -0.27*** Ya-On-Ya GDP Gowh (0.092) (0.090) (0.09) og Annual Uban Populaion Gowh: 0.025*** 0.06* S-in Inpolaion, % (0.009) (0.009) Couny Fixd Effc Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Ya Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y No Y Qua Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y No Y Obvaion R-quad Nwy-W andad o in panh * ignifican a 0%; ** ignifican a 5%; *** ignifican a %

18 Tabl 4. Dvlopmn gilaion and Houing Rik Pmia Dpndn Vaiabl: Dmand Houing Rik Pmia () (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) og Raio of Dpoi Mony Bank -0.86*** -0.32*** -0.86*** -0.32*** -0.84*** -0.28*** -0.84*** -0.28*** Bank A o GDP (0.026) (0.035) (0.026) (0.030) (0.026) (0.030) (0.026) (0.029) og Raio of Sockmak 0.037*** 0.047*** 0.037*** 0.048*** 0.037*** 0.048*** 0.037*** 0.048*** Toal Valu Tadd o GDP (0.005) (0.008) (0.005) (0.008) (0.005) (0.008) (0.005) (0.008) Zoning: Dcnalizaion 0.04** ** 0.034* (0.020) (0.02) (0.020) (0.020) Zoning: Social (Envionmnal, 0.034** 0.055*** 0.034** 0.054*** Public Paicipaion) Focu (0.05) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) Zoning: Simplificaion, * Conolidaion And Samlining (0.026) (0.027) (0.025) (0.026) Zoning: Oh -0.48*** -0.76*** -0.48*** -0.73*** -0.47*** -0.75*** -0.47*** -0.73*** (0.027) (0.027) (0.027) (0.028) (0.027) (0.028) (0.027) (0.028) Zoning: Dcnalizaion 0.036*** 0.045*** 0.038*** 0.046*** Social (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) Couny Fixd Effc Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Ya Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y Qua Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y Obvaion R-quad Nwy-W andad o in panh * ignifican a 0%; ** ignifican a 5%; *** ignifican a %

19 Tabl 3A. Popy Tax, Uban Populaion Gowh, Maximum TV Raio and Houing Rik Pmia Dpndn Vaiabl: Dmand Houing Rik Pmia () (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (0) og Raio of Dpoi Mony Bank -0.74*** -0.49*** -0.5*** *** -0.55*** *** *** Bank A o GDP (0.026) (0.035) (0.026) (0.030) (0.029) (0.035) (0.046) (0.056) (0.046) (0.063) og Sockmak Tunov Raio 0.07*** 0.077*** 0.062*** 0.068*** 0.057*** 0.068*** (0.008) (0.00) (0.008) (0.00) (0.008) (0.0) (0.0) (0.05) (0.02) (0.06) og Raio of Popy Tax Rvnu: 0.025*** 0.03*** Fdal To ocal (0.005) (0.005) og Annual Uban Populaion Gowh: 0.024*** 0.05* S-in Inpolaion, % (0.008) (0.009) og Max TV Raio *** 0.300* 0.478* (0.36) (0.77) (0.73) (0.298) Inacion: og Max TV Raio & *** *** Ya-On-Ya GDP Gowh (0.094) (0.094) (0.094) (0.094) Couny Fixd Effc Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Ya Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y No Y Qua Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y No Y Obvaion R-quad Nwy-W andad o in panh * ignifican a 0%; ** ignifican a 5%; *** ignifican a %

20 Tabl 4A. Dvlopmn gilaion and Houing Rik Pmia Dpndn Vaiabl: Dmand Houing Rik Pmia () (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) og Raio of Dpoi Mony Bank -0.66*** -0.28*** -0.66*** -0.28*** -0.64*** -0.25*** -0.64*** -0.25*** Bank A o GDP (0.025) (0.030) (0.025) (0.030) (0.025) (0.030) (0.025) (0.030) og Sockmak Tunov Raio 0.062*** 0.067*** 0.062*** 0.066*** 0.062*** 0.068*** 0.062*** 0.067*** (0.008) (0.009) (0.008) (0.009) (0.008) (0.009) (0.008) (0.009) Zoning: Dcnalizaion (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.022) Zoning: Social (Envionmnal, 0.032* 0.059*** 0.032** 0.059*** Public Paicipaion) Focu (0.05) (0.06) (0.05) (0.06) Zoning: Simplificaion, Conolidaion And Samlining (0.025) (0.027) (0.025) (0.026) Zoning: Oh -0.46*** -0.76*** -0.46*** -0.72*** -0.45*** -0.76*** -0.45*** -0.72*** (0.027) (0.028) (0.027) (0.028) (0.027) (0.028) (0.027) (0.028) Zoning: Dcnalizaion 0.03* 0.044*** 0.033*** 0.045*** Social (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) Couny Fixd Effc Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Ya Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y Qua Fixd Effc No Y No Y No Y No Y Obvaion R-quad Nwy-W andad o in panh * ignifican a 0%; ** ignifican a 5%; *** ignifican a %