Financial statement analysis and valuation of the Carlsberg Group

Transcription

1 Copenhagen Business School Department of finance Cand.merc. FSM Thesis December 2010 Financial statement analysis and valuation of Carlsberg Group Guidance: Jens Borges Name: Alexander Aagesen Velde Words: Characters (no spaces): Characters (with spaces): Paragraphs: Lines: 2691

2 Executive summary The purpose sis is driven by goal of examining if oretical price of one Carlsberg B share is undervalued, overvalued or equal to market price at date The method of process in sis is primary divided in strategic analysis, financial statement analysis and valuation. By Carlsberg`s non- financial value drivers, strategic analysis concludes that Carlsberg`s three regions are expecting growth. The expectations are not primary driven from Carlsberg`s largest market, which are Norrn- and Western Europe, as a matter of fact this region has declined. The reason can be divided in two. Number one, re are a growing number of microbreweries, and second reason is that consumers are changing ir drinking habits, by substituting beer with wine. Furr on, in Eastern European region and Asia, Carlsberg has increased ir market shares in growing markets, which y still are expected to continue with in future. In financial statement analysis, Carlsberg has performed strong. The financial statement analysis is characterized by finding financial value drivers with purpose of using m toger with non- financial drivers to provide strong budgeting in valuation. The valuation is done by DCF model, which is calculated by Carlsberg`s free cash flows discounted by wacc. The Carlsberg share price at date is DKK 384; we estimated oretical price to DKK 428 per B share. Seeing that prices where different has resulted in a creation of different scenarios which is done to analyze how changes in cost of equity, cost of debt and risk free rate affects B share through movements in wacc. The scenario analysis showed that Carlsberg B share was strongly affected by changes of variables in wacc. The DCF model is usually considered to be stronger with support from relative valuation models, which we also concluded within sis. The Carlsberg B share is characterized as underpriced at date The qualitative conclusion in sis is that we have unrealized gain in Carlsberg B share. 2

3 1 INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION PROBLEM STATEMENT LIMITATIONS METHOD COMPANY PRESENTATION HISTORY CARLSBERG`S MARKET Norrn- and Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia SHAREHOLDERS STRATEGIC ANALYSIS MACRO ANALYSIS PEST Analysis Political- and law related relationship Economic factors Social relationships Technological factors STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS OF THE INDUSTRY Customer`s negotiation power Potential threat form substitute products Suppliers negotiation power The potential threat of new entrants Competition in industry SWOT AND CONCLUSION OF THE STRATEGIC ANALYSIS FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS ACCOUNTING POLICIES REFORMULATION OF THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS Reformulation of income statement Operating activities, sales Operating activities, or operations Financing activities Reformulation of balance sheet ANALYSIS OF PROFITABILITY

4 4.3.1 ROE- Return on equity Operating activities ROIC- Return on invested capital PM- Operating profit margin AT- Asset turnover Financing activities FLEV- Financial leverage r SPREAD RISK Operational risk Risk in PM Risk in AT Risk in OLLEV Risk in foreign exchange Financial risk Risk in FLEV and SPREAD Interest rate risk Common size analysis Breweries in common size analysis ROI- return on investments ratio PM- Profit margin ratio AT- Asset turnover ratio FLEV- Financial leverage ratio Conclusion of financial statement analysis VALUATION VALUATION BY THE DCF MODEL Budget period Terminal period BUDGETING Development in sale AT PM (sales) Tax NOPAT (or operations) Future free cash flow COST OF CAPITAL WACC Capital structure Required rate of return on debt- rd

5 Required rate of return on equity- re The risk free rate- rf Beta- β The market risk premium- RM - rf Tax rate- Tc TERMINAL PERIOD VALUATION BY THE DCF MODEL SCENARIO ANALYSIS Movements in cost of debt Movements in cost of equity Movements in CAPM RELATIVE VALUATION MODELS P/B, Price- book P/EBITDA EV/EBITDA CONCLUSION REFERENCES APPENDICES

6 1 Introduction 1.1 Introduction In last decade re has been an increased focus on brewing industry because of consolidation in market. Carlsberg has proven, in a period of acquisitions, to be managed to becoming one of big four breweries in world. The advantages for Carlsberg have been to go through financial crisis with strong results due to operating margins and growth. Carlsberg have been in Danish culture since mid of 19 th century when Jacob Christian Jacobsen founded brewing company. As from start, company has developed to be a worldwide respected company, as well as a multinational company which operates in Europe and Asia. The beer industry is estimated to increase annually by 1, 6 per cent from year Furr on, in period of Carlsberg have had 25, 5% sales growth, which is best compared to or breweries among big four. One important strategic step for Carlsberg was ir acquisition of S&N toger with Heineken. The most recognized products in The Carlsberg Group s beer portfolio are Carlsberg Pilsner, Tuborg, Baltika and Kronenbourg. As a result of above, with possibilities with growth in income, re will be exciting to provide an evaluation of The Carlsberg Group, and find out if stock price is undervalued or overvalued compared to market value on Copenhagen Stock Exchange (CSE). Through economic recession, stock market has had a dramatic fall in stock prices. This has also hit OMX Copenhagen 20 index, which has fallen from 500 to 400 last two 6

7 years. Carlsberg have strongly gone through recession and are about same value level as for two years ago. Figure 1.1: Development in price, OMXC 20 index and Carlsberg B share Source: nasdaqomxnordic.com A valuation of Carlsberg is particularly interesting since company has beaten OMX C20 index over time. 1.2 Problem Statement The case is that we want to calculate value of Carlsberg`s B shares. We want to value share and examine if share is undervalued, overvalued or equal to price traded at stock exchange. Furr on, we want to be familiar with cost of capital, and how changes in variables put into cost of capital affects share price. How should share be valued, and does oretical price of one Carlsberg B share match with market price? The problem statement can be solved by following sub- questions: 7

8 Strategic analysis Which external factors have effect on Carlsberg? How is Carlsberg s competitive position? Financial statement analysis How has financial development in Carlsberg been past five years? How has Carlsberg s key financial figures been compared to competitors in brewing industry? Valuation By calculating Carlsberg`s value in Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, what is price of one Carlsberg B share? How will Carlsberg`s share price change when variables in cost of capital change? 1.3 Limitations The sis has a dead line to submit , so basis of data is to be set at a given date. The date I have sat is , following data after this date will not be drawn into sis. There is assumed that reader of sis has basis knowledge about Economics and applied models in assignment. The economic ory and applied models will not be deeply explained. The basic material is taken from annual reports and information from ir web site. Since Carlsberg is a public company re are certain rules for information to be provided in public. This makes it important, that above mentioned material shall consist of what 8

9 market has access to in general. For assignment we will assume re is stock market efficiency. The strategic analysis will be done to analyze how strategic factors of Carlsberg affects financials. We will not conclude on strategic advices. Divergence in gains/losses due to inflation will not be considered in analysis of financial statements and following not be included in valuation. The valuation will not include synergies by potential acquisitions from or institutions/companies. 1.4 Method The assignment is built by following structure: Introduction Presentation of The Carlsberg Group Strategic analysis Accounting analysis Valuation Conclusion 9

10 Introduction The introduction will contain introduction, problem statement, limitation and method. Presentation The presentation of Carlsberg will provide reader insight into company. The presentation contains among history, ownership, products and development in market price. Strategic analysis The meaning of strategic analysis is to get an overview of external and internal factors. The conclusion of strategic analysis is to be furr used in valuation. The strategic analysis will consist of three levels: Society level Industry level Company level The analysis on perspective of society is to show which factors in society which effects Carlsberg. This analyze will be done through PEST model, Political factors, Economical factors, Social factors and Technological factors. The relations in industry will be analyzed through Porters Five Forces. This model focuses on competitive rivalry in industry, threat of new entrants, threat of substitute products or service, bargaining power of customers and bargaining power of suppliers. Then we will do an internal analysis of Carlsberg by an SWOT analysis, which also works as a tool to gar content of strategy so we can conclude on strategic analysis. Financial statement analysis 10

11 The financial statement analysis is providing insight from financial development in Carlsberg from last 5 years. The aim of accounting analysis is to look at links with strategic analysis, which later can be used in budgeting. The accounting analysis treats reformulation of Carlsberg`s official financials, return on equity (ROE), operational risk, financial risk and common- size analysis. The accounting will be analyzed by an extended Du Pont model; model has basis in ROE. To use this model we need to reformulate income statement and balance sheet. The goal for reformulating income statement and balance is to split up and get a clear view of operating activities and financial activities. The reformulation is done on basis of method from book written by Ole Sørensen 1. Valuation In valuation we can chose from different models. There will be used one absolute value model and three relative value based models. There are typical two absolute value models in Valuation. There is Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model and Residual Income (RI) model. The DCF model is built on reformulated income statements and balance sheet (accounting), where operating activities and financial activities are divided. The model calculates company s value by discounting future cash flows from investor and lenders due to discounting rate. The RI model is built on official accounting numbers; in this model re can be negative accounting conventions due to a relatively small distribution of income and following value in terminal period 2. The RI model takes account of equity on book and discounting back residual income. In this assignment we will use DCF model, because this model is independent of accounting rules and model is preferred by professional analysts. The model of absolute value cannot stand alone, so we will use following relative value based models to calculate Carlsberg s share price: P/B- Price/Book P/EBITDA- Price/Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization 1 Sørensen, Ole (), Regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse- En praktisk tilgang 2 Sørensen, Ole (), Regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse- En praktisk tilgang, p

12 EV/EBITDA- Enterprise value/ EBITDA 2 Company presentation The presentation will serve as an introduction to strategic analysis and financial statement analysis. 2.1 History The young brewer, Jacob Christian Jacobsen, founded an industrial brewery on Valby Bakke, just outside Copenhagen s old urban area. The brewery was named Carlsberg after his son, Carl, and hill (berget) in Valby. The quality of beer was exceptional from start, and Carlsberg became a success right away. J. C. Jacobsen also received a strong international reputation at an early age. In 1894 Tuborg got into United Breweries, which in 1903 went into an agreement with Carlsberg to share profits and losses, at same time as y had separately breweries and competed against each or. The deal made foundation for a later merger between Carlsberg and Tuborg in The fusion became a start on a powerful international expansion. Carlsberg have achieved great results from ir partnerships last century in an ongoing industry characterized by consolidation. In 2001, Carlsberg started a joint venture with Orkla (Norwegian company), agreement where to distribute beer from industry in Norway, Sweden and Russia. Furr on in 2004 y bought stake of 40% which Orkla had. In 2008 Carlsberg went through a milestone; y went into an acquisition of Scottish & Newcastle (S&N) toger with Heineken. By this y got control of Russian and Baltic breweries, acquired French leader Kronenbourg and Greek brewery Mythos. This takeover has made Carlsberg among biggest breweries on a world basis. Today more than people works in Carlsberg Group and y deliver ir portfolio of products, which is more than 500 brands, in more than 150 markets. Furr on y have sold about 120 million hectoliters of beer, which in a daily basis amounts to 100 million bottles of beer 3. Carlsberg is today fourth largest brewery group in world. The strategy in Carlsberg has divided ir market in three regions. This is; Norrn & Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Asia

13 Figure 2.1: Financial data from Carlsberg in period Revenues in million DKK Sales volume beer, million hl Net revenue Profitt before tax ,6 100,7 115,2 126, ROIC Operating margin Pay out ratio Shareholders Market value (billions dk) 7,80 % 9,20 % 11,70 % 8,20 % 8,20 % 9,20 % 9,80 % 11,80 % 13,30 % 15,80 % 34,00 % 24,00 % 20,00 % 20,00 % 15,00 % ,8 58,8 Source: Carlsberg, annual report Carlsberg`s results have been positive last five years. Their sales volume, revenue and margins have increased in a stable manner, also included results from, year where financial crisis hit economy hardest. Despite a hard year in, liquidity in Carlsberg is better than ever, so it`s not unfair to conclude that Carlsberg is a very strong company in ir industry and generally in economy. Next we will see how shareholder structure in Carlsberg is. 2.2 Carlsberg`s market We will look at development in Carlsberg`s three different regions by net revenue, operating profit and operating margin per region. Figure 2.2: Development in net revenue 13

14 Source: Own manufacturing of Carlsberg`s annual report Figure 2.3: Development in operating profit Source: Own manufacturing of Carlsberg`s annual reports

15 Figure 2.4: Development in operating margin Source: Own manufacturing of Carlsberg`s annual reports, We will characterize Carlsberg`s market focus, by its regions, and this is as following: The Norrn and Western Europe as a mature market, Eastern Europe as a growing market and Asia as emerging market. From figures above we can see that 61, 65% of net revenue is from mature markets, but this region has lowest operating margin of 11, 61%. The figures also shows us that Asia has got 7% of total net revenues in, and an operating margin of 16, 67%. In Asian region share of Carlsberg has increased from 6, 5% in 2007 to 7, 1% in. At same time Eastern European region has increased share of Carlsberg`s market from 21, 6% in 2007 to 31, 25% in. The Eastern European market operates with best margins due to Carlsberg`s markets and regions, and following this is considered to be positive for Carlsberg, by means of earning power. Next we will go furr into different regions. 15

16 2.2.1 Norrn and Western Europe This region holds following countries: Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Baltic States 4, Great Britain, Germany, Switzerland, France, Italy, Greece, Portugal, Poland and South East Europe 5. The region has a mature market and it`s an important part of Carlsberg`s overall market, with 43% 6 of total volume and 62% of ir total net revenue. The region is characterized by players in beer industry which must compete for market shares, by taking m from each or. The region consists of markets which are both characterized by local- and international breweries. Furr on, regions has a well- established retail structure 7 and a strong beer portfolio including strong brands. See appendix 7 for development in beer consumption, GDP and population. The impact of economic crisis affected individual markets very differently, by Nordic countries with an increase in beer consumption per capita, on or side Baltic States, South Eastern Europe, Great Britain and France has undergone a decline in consumption last five years. Also in future re is expected a small decline in beer consumption. Unfortunately, we do not have access to data about net revenues and or accounting information in different countries, so we cannot calculate how beer consumption works in line with Carlsberg`s financials divided by country. In figure you can see development in net revenue, operating profit and operating margin from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania 5 Bulgaria, Croatia, Serbia 6 Annual report, p Annual report, p

17 Figure 2.5: Development in Carlsberg`s market, Development in Carlsberg, 2007 Net revenues, DKK bill. Norrn and Western Europe Eatsern Europe Asia ,087 37,128 36,5 9,658 19,137 18,5 2,886 3,555 4,2 Operating profit, DKK bill Norrn and Western Europe 3,383 3,953 4,2 Eatsern Europe 2,134 4,109 5,3 Asia 0,366 0,511 0,7 Operating margin, percentage Norrn and Western Europe 10,54 % 10,65 % 11,51 % Eatsern Europe 22,10 % 21,47 % 28,65 % Asia 12,68 % 14,37 % 16,67 % Source: Own manufacturing from Carlsberg`s annual reports, As you can see, Carlsberg has increased volume, net revenue and margin last years compared to overall market. This means y have captured market shares and capital with strong margins in period, which also have been a period of recession, which is a prove of Carlsberg`s strength in fluctuations of a business cycle. In Denmark, Carlsberg improved its market share by 60bp 8, to 56, 3%; y have also got a strong position in market for cider, with Somersby cider. The increase in beer volume is by help from ir latest acquisition of S&N, which have provided Kronenbourg in France, Mythos in Greece and Baltic States. By organic growth in overall beer market in Norrn- and Western Europe, region had a decline of 5%- 6% in Eastern Europe In Eastern Europe Carlsberg have gained control over BBH, after buy of parts of S&N, and Eastern Europe is now containing Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Belarus and Azerbaijan. In Eastern Europe, Russia is clearly most important country in this region, with Baltika in front. Eastern Europe has got 44% of total volume of sales, and an 8 Carlsberg annual report, p.33 9 Carlsberg annual report, p.30 17

18 operating margin of 28, 65%, which is strongest one among Carlsberg`s three regions. See appendix 9 for development in beer consumption, GDP and population. As you can see re have been growth in beer consumption, in period On or hand, decline in is considered to be a negative impact from recession in Because recession is considered to be finished, we can expect a furr increase in this region, especially Russia in near future. The development in net revenue, operating profit and operating margin were showed earlier in figure 2.5. You can see from figure 2.5 that net revenue has decreased by DKK 637 mill. This is due to a negative impact on consumption in times of recession in this region, but Carlsberg has managed to capture market shares in all countries, expect Kazakhstan. The Group`s total beer volume has increased 10% since 2008, while organic beer volumes declined by 6% 10. Furr on re has been a strong increase in margin. By this, Group has increased ir share of market and y accumulate strong profits from ir operations, which make importance of a strong focus on this region vital for Carlsberg Asia This region consists of Malaysia, Singapore, China, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and India. The emerging market has an enormous growth potential. The Carlsberg brand is one of strongest in region. The region has been an attractive area for investors last years due to high growth, a big population and low cost production. You can see development in beer consumption, GDP and population in appendix 10. Asia was only region with growth in consumption, The annual growth is strongest in Vietnam and China, where China must be said to be most important part of this region because of all present- and potential consumers. The development in net revenue, operating profit and operating margin is shown in figure 2.5, figures tell us that Carlsberg`s allocation in region is low, but in a process of strong growth. The region gained 18, 15% in net revenue in compared to Carlsberg also managed to increase operating margin by 2, 3% more in. Carlsberg has a strong 10 Carlsberg annual report, p

19 position in this region which is considered to be region with greatest growth potential in beer consumption and GDP. 2.3 Shareholders 11 Carlsberg has a nominal share of capital at DKK 58, 8 billion divided on A shares and B shares. The Carlsberg shares are listed on NASDAQ OMX Copenhagen A/S. Each A share carries 20 votes, and each B share 2 votes, but is entitled to a preferential dividend. The B share is listed in consumer staples index. The A shares nominal value are DKK 13, 2 billion and B shares have a nominal value of DKK 45, 6 billion. According to The Carlsberg foundation`s charter, y must at all-time hold at least 51% of votes and more than 25% of share capital of Carlsberg A/S. The Carlsberg foundation is biggest stock holder. At end of Foundation held 30% of company s share capital, due to combination of A shares and B shares by Foundation. It had 73% of votes at same time. Figure The market is divided in three regions which are mentioned through assignment. These are, North- and Vest Europe, East Europe and Asia. These areas will be discussed in next section. 11 Carlsberg annual report 12 Carlsberg annual report p. 55, own manufacturing 19

20 3 Strategic analysis The purpose of strategic analysis is to provide an overview of internal and external factors which affects Carlsberg`s strategic position. The strategic analysis focuses on nonfinancial value drivers. The non- financial value drivers makes an important part of budget, which later will be used for valuation, this is due to value drivers which aren`t financial, but is a basis for financial drivers, which are used in budget. The strategic analysis will contain following three levels: Society-, industry- and company level. First we will analyze society level, n industry level and at last company level. 3.1 Macro analysis PEST Analysis We will go through PEST 13 analysis by looking at factors in surrounding world of Carlsberg. The PEST model consists of following factors: Political-, economic-, socialand technological- factors. In accordance to most important political relations which affects Carlsberg we will discuss; Tax and expenses, marketing, environment and competitive law Political and law related relationship Throughout Carlsberg`s market re are many countries which debates public s alcohol consumption due to taxes and health issues. An excise tax on beer is often justified on two grounds, which is as a source of funding for government. At same time governments often cite health concerns as a reason for increasing excise taxes. In countries which are members of EU, governments have increased taxes last years. For example, British government has increased taxes on a yearly basis since 2003, with only exception in 2008, when taxes where increased twice. The taxes has grown 4, 4% on an annual basis, since April 2003 to April 14. In or countries where beer taxes has been unchanged recent 13 Sørensen, Ole (), Regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse- En praktisk tilgang, p

21 years, national governments has recently decided to increase taxes coming years in or markets which is important for Carlsberg, such as Finland, Poland, Greece, Russia and Ukraine. On or hand, re are not as high beer taxes in or parts of Eastern Europe and Asia. Furr on, we can tell that taxes will have an effect on Carlsberg in future. But also changes in taxes on spirits and wine can have effects on substitution in market for alcohol. In a number of countries you must be at a certain age to drink beer, typically se countries have laws which forbid marketing from alcohol and beer. Such as Norway, you need to be 18 years old to buy beer and re is not allowed to do commercials for beer. In this way re are advantages for Carlsberg as an owner of brands such as Ringnes, so y can market beer through or and better marketing channels. The demand and focus for environmental care has increased much recent years. Carlsberg has an operating CSR division to handle this issue. Carlsberg`s environmental strategy has given Group one of best positions due to efficiency of water and energy consumption. In Carlsberg Serbia, in Central Europe, received special honors for being a strong promoter of environmental sustainability and producing a report for relevant information of Carlsberg`s environmental performance. To maintain strong position of handling issues in pollution and waste of energy in brewing industry, Group is implementing efficiency programs. Also in China, y have implemented production excellence program; this is for a more effective maintenance process, lower energy usage and reduced water usage. In Russia y made an energy saving scheme, made for reducing heated energy costs and negative environmental impact of water vapor released into atmosphere 15. UN global compact principles are also used in day- to- day practices. Law of competition in beer sector can influence Carlsberg because of ir enormous size. This can make national governments around world to put up against potential buy out plans from Carlsberg, which can be done to prevent monopolies. Following this can slow Carlsberg growth in future. 15 Carlsberg annual report, p

22 Next we will discuss economic factors, which will be discussed through GDP and conjunctures Economic factors The world economic market is characterized by business cycles, which are of importance for Carlsberg and beer industry. As we write, economy is in a period of recovery and people are increasing ir disposable income, which has proven to be positive for Carlsberg and regions where y operate. But anor economic factor is higher tax burden in Europe 16, especially in Russia. Carlsberg is expecting a decline in Norrn- and Western region and Russia, and growth in Asia and Eastern Europe 17. The sensitivity level in beer consumption and net revenues are minimal in mature market in Norrn- and Western region. Furr on, in Asia and Eastern Europe demand for beer is different and more sensitive for disposable income and gross domestic product (GDP), because of lower GDP per capita in se regions. See future development in appendix 11, 22 and 13. In Carlsberg s region in Norrn- and Western Europe, re is expected a decline in organic growth, but y still have great possibilities to increase ir market share. In future business cycle in this region is expected to increase due to a more comprehensive trade balance on an international level 18. Carlsberg has a dominating and well established position in market and will on worst have a small decline in sale. In Eastern Europe, The Russian market will be negatively impacted due to 200% excise duty increase 19. Although y have increased taxes much, Russian market has proven strong earnings for Carlsberg and Baltika. Baltika beer is been number 1 with an increasing market share, which in amounts to 40, 6% of Russian market 20 (from 38, 8% in 2008). Although region has a lower GDP per capita than in Norrn- and Western Europe, y have strong expectations for this region in future with growing middle class. See estimated GDP growth for Eastern Europe in appendix : Document: The contribution made by beer to European economy, p. 27 Earnst & Young 17 Carlsberg annual report, p.6 18 Imf.org 19 Annual report, p Annual report, p

23 In perspective of Carlsberg`s market present, Asian region is number one market for Carlsberg in terms of operating profit margins. The weak spot for region is low level of GDP per capita, but future estimates are set to a large increase according to IMF, see appendix 3. The downside for this region is that re will be many years before GDP level has increased to match welfare and disposable income level to Carlsberg`s European regions. The Asian region is characterized by large populations, growing economies, rising per capita incomes and improving infrastructure 21, but because of poverty in Asian region market can be affected more on a short term basis, but on long term outlook is good and y will experience growth in economy and beer market due to considerations of estimated GDP and following disposable income. In general Carlsberg can expect an increase in Asia and Eastern Europe, but expect a small decline in mature market in Europe 22. The disposable income and GDP will grow on long run, but re might be some small declines in short term. In next section we will discuss culture, lifestyle and consumption according to social relationships in analysis of Carlsberg`s PEST model Social relationships Carlsberg has ir primary operations in Europe and Asia, which are recognized as regions with different cultures and alcohol consumption. Because of growing impact of brewing industry with ongoing internationalization, Carlsberg need to face growing demand around world, especially in ir primary regions. Often countries and cultures have different traditions towards beer and alcohol. In next figure you can see results from a survey of European alcohol habits, based on consumption on a monthly basis. Figure 3.1: Alcohol consumption 23, Europe 21 Annual report, p Annual report, p Document: Alcohol Price and Consumer Behavior, July, Ipsos 23

24 The figure tells us that market for alcoholic beverage is relative strong; when just 24% of people from survey answer that y do not drink beverages with alcohol. In Nordic market, beer consumption has increased and is expecting to increase in future, but beer consumption in Norrn- and Western Europe on a general basis has declined. For example, in Great Britain 2/3 of all beer is consumed outside home (ontrade), although re have been a small decline in consumption, only country which has a beer consumption outside home larger than Great Britain is Ireland 24. The new trends in society impact European region by a decrease in beer consumption, e.g. Nerlands have had a change in preferences. The wine consumption has increased from 14, 5 liters in 1990 to 21, 6 liters in In same period beer consumption per head has decreased from 88 liters to 77 liters. The European alcohol consumption has changed last 15 years, and today more people in Europe prefer to drink wine 25. This trend has clearly an impact on beer consumption, which is an area Carlsberg needs to consider for coming years. In Eastern Europe beer consumption is expected to increase through Carlsberg`s portfolio : Document: The contribution made by beer to European economy, p. 27 Earnst & Young 24

25 In Asia, especially in China which is Carlsberg`s largest market in this region, has consumed more beer than ever, of beverage growth, beer is beverage which has increased most in absolute terms, and over next five years China is estimated to account for more than half of world s absolute volume growth in beer 26, which is considered a large impact. Due to Carlsberg portfolio of brands we can see that Carlsberg pilsner and Tuborg is consumed in Denmark, in Russia y drink Baltika and in France y drink Kronenbourg. In 2005 Carlsberg started Jacobsen brewery in Valby at same location as Group began brewing in 19 th century. This is a response to demand of high quality beer due to growing premium segment. This segment is important due to future tradition and consumption in Carlsberg`s regions. As a response to global society in terms of culture, beer consumption and integration, Carlsberg has a new corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategy combined with group strategy consisting of focus areas as: Step change innovation, Efficiency, commercial execution and people and winning behaviors 27. The CSR strategy has purpose of growing business responsible and making a positive contribution to society by implementing responsible business practices 28. We have seen development so far in beer consumption per capita, which tells us; In Norrn and Western Europe re is a decrease in beer consumption, but on or hand re are growth in Asia and Eastern Europe. Next we will discuss development in Carlsberg`s technology due to brewing technology, but also secondarily outsourced technology by ir IT system Technological factors The brewing machineries have changed over history, which has been important to be openminded towards a modern-, quality- and cost effective demand in development in society. The innovation in brewing is important to brewing process, environment, costs, logistics and consumer preferences. By this Carlsberg have implemented a strategy dependent on Annual report, p Annual report, p 25 25

26 innovation and newly developed products, such as Jacobsen lager beer. Carlsberg`s core competences are within malt- and cereal- based beverages, but y are also expanding into new platforms to meet needs such as women and health 29. By large growth and acquisitions which Carlsberg has experienced last decade, y have a seven year contact with IBM, which started in 2005 to develop ir IT system through a mutual IT platform, which have and will help improving efficiency in Carlsberg 30, through Carlsberg IT. By outsourcing of IT function Carlsberg can easier adapt and integrate, especially in ir new markets. This is important for Carlsberg s financial and strategic position, especially in Norrnand Western Europe where competition is at a high level of intensity. Macro factors in PEST analysis We can consider macro factors due to beer industry and Carlsberg and conclude that Norrn- and Western European region is facing a slight decline in level of beer consumption. The governmental health considerations and fact that people are drinking more wine in this region have had a negative impact on beer market. Furr on, in Asian and Eastern European region beer market has experienced an increase, in addition to general market increase, Carlsberg has managed to increase ir share in growing beer market last years and throughout financial crisis. We can conclude that Carlsberg has had a great strategy in se two regions last years and y are strong positioned due to political-, economic-, social- and technological factors. 3.2 Structural analysis of industry The industry analysis is taken account for in Porter`s five forces 31, see appendix 14. The models general purpose is to decide upon competition in a given industry by looking at aspects as: Competition in industry Supplier`s negotiation power 29 Annual report, p HQ2005.aspx 31 Sørensen, Ole (), Regnskabsanalyse og værdiansættelse- En praktisk tilgang, p

27 Competition from substitute products Threats by new competitors Buyers negotiation power As done earlier in assignment, we will keep on dividing Carlsberg`s market in following three geographical regions; Norrn- and Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Asia. The main focus of analysis will be done by European regions because y are by far most important market for Carlsberg Customer`s negotiation power Carlsberg primary sell beer to distributers which sells it to consumers. The customer s negotiation power is different in three regions. In following sections we will discuss customer`s negotiation power. Norrn- and Western Europe This market is characterized by many distributors and few breweries compared to distributors. The ten largest breweries produce approximately 60% of market volume, and following 20 largest breweries produces toger a bit more than 70% 32 of market volume, in this market three largest breweries are Heineken, Carlsberg and AB InBev. The distributors have many brands to choose from and refore a strong position in negotiation, but consumers are decision makers in end. The consumer has a strong economy in this region and this fact seems to follow ir strong preferences. Of Carlsberg`s markets, this is region with most intense competition. So, in this region consumers are ones with negotiation power. Eastern Europe 32 document: Carlsberg in beer- world 27

28 The ten largest breweries in this region has 84, 3% 33 of beer volume. In Eastern European region Carlsberg is largest brewery followed by SAB Miller and Heineken in respective places of produced beer volume. The Russian market is of great importance, with market leader Baltika which has got a large share of volume compared to competitors. Since consumers demand for Baltika is very strong, distributors have less negotiation power than in Norrn- and Western European region, because of need for supply of Baltika to satisfy customers. The consumption is mainly distributed towards Baltika and refore distributors have little negotiation power. Asia This region has some of distribution structure as Norrn- and Western region, but re are large differences in disposable income and GDP, although GDP growth are estimated to increase much coming years. The largest ten breweries are producing 57, 6% of market volume and largest twenty breweries produces 71, 7% 34 of beer volume. This region has had a large growth in beer consumption, at same time as international breweries are entered market. The consumer has many brands to choose among, but relatively low disposable income levels at this time. In this region consumers are considered to have medium negotiation power, se considerations are drawn from a combination of relatively few breweries compared to distributors and low level of GDP Potential threat form substitute products The products which in highest degree can be substituted with beer are wine, spirits, cider and or beverage with alcohol. By assuming beer is cultural rooted due to difference in consumption between regions and countries we can look at development by beverage containing alcohol and how consume differ in regions. Anor point by threats for 33 document: Carlsberg in beer- world 34 document: Carlsberg in beer- world 28

29 substitute products is national government s focus on health and indicators in industry by se trends. Norrn- and Western Europe This region has had a decline in beer consumption previous years. Many of countries, such as Nordic countries, Great Britain and Germany face a substitute from beer to wine. The reason for this is growing awareness and focus on health 35, where wine is considered as healthy. Also Governments focus on financial strains due to high consumption of alcoholic beverages, leads to higher beer taxes, which has proven to have a negative impact on beer consumption. Carlsberg is expecting a slight decline in beer consumption in this region; this is also because of world economic turmoil. Eastern Europe Russia is most important market in this region. In Russia Baltika has increased ir volume, but total consumption has decreased. The consumer preferences have previous year s glowed strong for consumption if beer, wine, and alcoholic cocktails, which are considered to have been, and still are, substitutes for vodka and or strong spirits 36. Asia In this region consumption for alcoholic beverage is increasing fast, and so are per capita incomes. Such as China, beer and wine are substitute products for spirits. In perspective of GDP level in this region, wine prices has increased less than beer prices, which has favored wine consumption. The consumers are considered to have focus on lifestyle in combination of alcoholic beverage, and young consumers are considered most important segment 37. Also light beer has an increasing popularity with increasing segment of female drinkers in segment. The Asian region is all over considered an emerging market which has experienced a large growth in beer consumption and re is also expected to be continuing large increase in region document: Consumer lifestyles 36 document: Consumer lifestyles 37 document: Consumer lifestyles 29

30 3.2.3 Suppliers negotiation power We will not discuss supplier`s negotiation power through Carlsberg`s three regions, because suppliers are affecting Carlsberg at about same level in three regions. The main suppliers of Carlsberg are suppliers of raw material and suppliers of packaging. Primarily, raw material which supplier`s supply are malt, barley and hops. There are many suppliers of raw materials in all of Carlsberg`s regions and suppliers have following little to negotiate with. By recovery of economic crisis, suppliers of raw materials have lower spot prices that normal, which are an advantage for Carlsberg, but we can expect prices on raw material to increase in future. In last decade, breweries have changed wrapping of beverages, as Carlsberg has with Baltika. The breweries have increased ir interests in bottling and similar activities and following suppliers of packaging has little negotiation power The potential threat of new entrants New brewers need to pay high costs for establishing production facilities toger with distribution networks, because of size of industry. In this way, especially in Norrnand Western Europe, it s important to have extensive production to gain on economies of scale on production, administration and distribution and sales. For a potential new entrant in this industry it takes a large amount of investing in brewing and large sales and profits to gain on economies of scale in competitive brewing industry, but new trend in microbreweries have not got same high cost level as international breweries, nor have y got large administration, distribution and sale expenses bounded to establishment. Carlsberg has a wide product portfolio which is considered to have increased ir brand loyalty. This makes a potential penetration in market for new brewers even harder because y will easier vanish among many beer brands. On or hand, microbreweries have grown and captured market shares because of growing segment for premium beer. To answer on increasing demand for special beer, Carlsberg has launched new Jacobsen series, which is a series which suits into segment of special beer. The risk of new entrants is considered to be low. 30

31 3.2.5 Competition in industry We can conclude that intensity of competition is high in Norrn- and Western European region, but medium and low in Eastern European- and Asian region. The beer industry is heavily dependent on Carlsberg, Heineken, SAB Miller and AB InBev, as y posses 40, 7% of market share in world 38. Furr on, this is positive as breweries can gain advantage in economies of scale and increase recognition in ir portfolio of brands. The Norrn- and Western European region has a high level of competition in ir mature market. The market is here characterized as declining in volume and operating costs are relatively high. One of reasons for decline is shift in consumption pattern, where beer is substituted for wine. The Eastern European region is characterized as a growth market. This market is still growing, and competitors are about to be finished with establishing face. Carlsberg is gaining market shares in this region. The Asian market has a relatively low intensity in competition. The industry has grown strongly, and market in this region is also expected maintain strong growth. The market is characterized by large investments by international breweries, and following breweries has a positive effect on growth in GDP; fact that about all industries is invested heavily in Asia can make growth accelerate even more than in Carlsberg`s or regions. Also, re is a shift from spirits to beer in this region which makes it even more attractive. 3.3 SWOT and conclusion of strategic analysis The strategic analysis has purpose of analyzing non- financial value drivers. Carlsberg has a competitive advantage in economies of scale and ir distribution- and sale system. The competitive advantage has capacity to maintain and increase Carlsberg`s earnings power. Furr on, it is difficult for smaller competitors to steal market shares from Carlsberg, especially I Norrn- and Western European region, but also for largest competitors, 38 document: Company shares in world, beer 31

32 which are losing market shares to Carlsberg. We consider Carlsberg to have a durable competitive advantage. Next we will sum up analysis from PEST model, Porters five forces and new internal factors which can affect Carlsberg`s financials. The internal factors toger with external factors will be shown in SWOT- framework in next figure. Figure 3.2: SWOT Strength Opportunities Quality brands Possibilities for organic growth in Strong performance in operations in Asia toger with strategic Eastern Europe acquisitions and joint ventures Economies of scale Baltika has a great potential in Russia Product innovation and possibilities for furr growth in Market leading positions or Eastern European countries Strong position compared to smaller Increasing growth in premium competitors segment Capabilities of adapting to new Liquidity and possibilities for greater environmental policies advantage of economies of scale Weaknesses Threats Largely exposed to European beer Turbulent period in global market economy, a period of recovery or a Very weak presence in Norrn new face of recession? America and Latin America The RUB exchange can make large The base of ir total cost are large losses for Carlsberg on a short term basis Decline in beer consumption in Norrn- and Western European region Changes in consumption pattern 32

33 National governmental regulations in beer taxes Consolidation in industry driven from large competitors As you can see in SWOT analysis, Carlsberg has a strong beer portfolio and y are all time renewing ir beverage in accordance to changing needs in society. One weakness Carlsberg has compared to smaller breweries are large costs, this is an area where Carlsberg has a continually focus, but as y grow over time, so will costs. The fact that Carlsberg and its products are market leaders in several countries makes mapping of Carlsberg`s non- financial drivers leading to stronger expectations to ir growth potential in future. 4 Financial statement analysis In extension of strategic analysis we make a financial statement analysis of The Carlsberg Group. The financial statement analysis have purpose of giving an overview of Carlsberg`s historical performance, by analyzing Carlsberg`s accounting figures in period of In financial statement analysis we will consider financial value drivers which have been of importance to Carlsberg. The financial statement analysis will be divided in five sections, which is: Accounting policies, reformulation of financial statements, analysis of return on equity (ROE), risk analysis and benchmark analysis. The analyses of ROE will be done on basis of Du- Pont pyramid 39. The annual accounting sheets will be reformulated for analytical purposes; an explanation follows in 39 Regnskapsanalyse og værdiansættelse- En praktisk tilgang,ole Sørensen, p

34 sections of reformulation of income and balance sheet. In extension re will be developed an analysis of risk factors. In benchmark analysis re will be selected key financial ratios from beer industry compared to Carlsberg`s actual key financial ratios. The key financial ratios will be calculated directly from official yearly accounts. There will not be done a reformulation of yearly accounts of competitors. The official accounts will be regarded as giving a true guideline of values used in calculations of key financial ratios. The focus in analysis of risk will be towards operational- and financial risk. 4.1 Accounting policies The accounting which will be used in financial statement analysis, is Carlsberg`s official yearly accounts, which is available at Carlsberg`s web page. The accounting is presented in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The first time Carlsberg presented yearly accounts in accordance with IFRS where 1 January Since accounts were presented for first time in 2005 accounting policies has been consecutive accommodated. There is all time new supplement to original edition of IFRS, se supplements does not need to have impact on composition of accounts. Many of supplements demands for deepening of posts in accounts. Carlsberg`s accounting policies has not been changed during period which is analyzed. Furr on, Group reports that re haven`t been any consequences of importance due to regulations in IFRS 40. Following we do not need to make own calculations in existing public accounts due to differences among years of period We can conclude that annual reports are true and valid, and y are sat up by same methods, which make m ready to be reformulated on same conditions. 4.2 Reformulation of financial statements In previous section we discussed accounting policies, and y can now be reformulated and used in financial statement analysis. 40 Carlsberg annual report, note 40, p

35 The value creation of a company goes through operating- and financing activities. In official financial statements y do not separate operating- and financing activities, and because of that, we need to reformulate financial statements so we can provide separation. The value creation primarily comes from operating activities, because ir core business lies here. The purpose of reformulating operating activities is to calculate true total revenues for operating activities. The financing activities are derived from operating activities, where re are financing activities which are supposed to provide debt or equity to finance operating activities, which are supposed to service debt and get interests from liquidity. There will also be determined total revenues derived from financing activities. We will find this by going in- depth on posts in financial statements which are specified directly posts from official financial revenues and expenses. We will explain different posts in next passage about reformulation; posts will primarily be derived from financial statements for Reformulation of income statement As we have discussed earlier, income statement will be reformulated so we can use it for analytical purposes. In following section reformulation of important posts will be explained by dividing financial statements into operating- and financing activities. Next, we broke down operating activities and divided m in two groups, which are sales and or operations. Figure 4.1: Reformulation income statement 35

36 DKK million Net revenue Cost of sales Deduction of depreciation Gross profitt Sales and distribution expenses Administrative expenses Share of profitt after tax, accociates Special items EBITDA (Sales) Depreciation & amortization EBIT (Sales) EBIT (or operations) Tax from result of sales Tax from result of or operations NOPAT (Sales) NOPAT (Or operations) Nopat (Sales+or operations) Financial income Financial expenses Tax from net financial expenses Concern result Non controlling interests Comprehensive income Operating activities, sales As it is derived from official financial statements revenues and expenses are derived from sales, though y are corrected for depreciation and amortization, so depreciation and amortization stands as an independent post. See appendix 16. To find results for NOPAT (sale) we used following formula 41 : NOPAT (sales) tax = Corporation tax + tax advantage See appendix Regnskapsanalyse og værdiansættelse- En praktisk tilgang,ole Sørensen, p

37 The post special items are related to investments in brewery related activities and are following moved up in reformulation as a part of operating activities, sale Operating activities, or operations The posts or operating income and or operating expenses (net or operating income) in official income statement are considered as or operations than direct sales in reformulation. The reason for our classification is that main source of gain in se posts is derived from real estate activity outside brewing related activities. And by classifying se posts as or operations in reformulation, we can easily find pure profit margin 42 (PM) for sale later in analysis of profit (ROE). Furr on, we have deducted tax of or operations from official corporation tax to find pure NOPAT (sale), see appendix 17. In reformulation, or operations is not a part of net financial expenses, so tax advantage from net financial expenses has not affected NOPAT (sale) or NOPAT (or operations) Financing activities The financing activities include expenses, which are arranged due to need for funding. In Carlsberg se activities consist of income and expenses due to interests. All posts of financing activities are derived by sub posts in financial income and financial expenses from official financial statements. The tax effect of financial income and financial expenses can be found by official tax rates used in different years. See appendix Reformulation of balance sheet As in reformulation of incomes statement we are excited to split up and divide posts due to characterization of operating activities and financing activities. The operating activities are divided into operating assets and operating liabilities, and financing activities are divided into financial assets and financial liabilities. 42 Regnskapsanalyse og værdiansættelse- En praktisk tilgang,ole Sørensen, p

38 Figure 4.2: Reformulation balance sheet Net operating assets DKK million Operating assets: Intangible assets Property, plant and equipement Investements in associates Cash and cash equivalents Deferred tax assets Retirement benefit plan assets Inventories Receivabels from sale of goods and services On trade loans Tax receivabels Or receivabels Prepayments Total operating assets Operating liabilities Trade payabels Non current liabilities, provisions Current liabilities, Provisions Retirement benefit obligations and similar obligations Corpration tax Deposits on returnabel packaging Net operating liabilities Net operating assets Net financial assets Equity Common shareholder`s equity Minority interests Shareholder`s total equity Financial liabilities Non curent liabilities, borrowings Current liabilities, borrowings Liabilities accociated with assets held for sale Deffered tax liabilities Non current liabilities, Or liabilities Current liabilities, Or liabilities Total financial liabilities Financial assets Non current assets, securities Current assets, securities Cash and cash equivalents Assets held for sale Total financial assets Net financial obligations

39 An explanation of important posts will be done in following section. The operating assets are basis for Carlsberg`s business operations on a daily basis. All non- current assets from Carlsberg`s official financial statements, except securities, are posted under operating assets in reformulated balance sheet. One post which can be doubted is investments in associates. This post is placed under operating assets because investments are connected to brewing, but doubtful side lies in Asian and Eastern European markets which has or cultures and consumer preferences than beer culture in Norrn- and Western Europe, n by means can be driven differently. Furr on, post for cash and cash equivalents 43 is both an operating assets and a financial asset. This post consists of bank deposits and cash. There lies a necessity to pay bills on a daily basis, as can be compared with an investment of property, plant and equipment. So as an operating asset we have placed 1% of net revenue as a buffer to carry out operations in an efficient manner 44. On or hand, remaining value of this post is placed in financial assets. Or receivables comprise VAT receivables, loans to associates and or receivables 45. Because of categorization of investments in associates under operating assets, we can compare this with or receivables, due to loans and VAT receivables. By this post is not placed under financial assets, but operating assets. Furr on acquisition of S&N is of great importance due to changes in balance sheet in Carlsberg. We can see that balance sheet have increased much in intangible assets last 2-3 years. The values from acquisition are recognized in intangible assets 46 as an operating asset under goodwill and trademarks. The net financial obligations have increased from 28, 582 billion DKK to 58, 088 billion DKK in period This shows importance of growing net revenues, operating profit and assets to keep on to competitive advantage for Carlsberg. The balance sheet`s reformulated financial statement has following form 47 : NOA NFO = Total equity 43 Annual report, note 21, p Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdiansættelse- En praktisk tilgang, p Annual report, note 19, p Annual report, note 14, p Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdiansættelse- en praktisk tilgang, p

40 4.3 Analysis of profitability The profitability analysis is derived from an extension of DuPont- model, which has basis in return on equity (ROE). The purpose of profitability analysis is to analyze what is underlying value drivers in accordance to historical development in ROE. As you can see in next figure, DuPont- model is divided in two, on left side re are operating activities and on right side re are financing activities. Figure 4.4: Reference frame for analysis of ROE 48 ROE Return from operating activities Return from financing activities Level 1 Return on net operating assets Financial leverage Level 2 Profit margin X Asset turnover X Financial leverage x spread Level 3 Gross margin and expense drivers Individual asset and liability drivers Net borrowing cost drivers The DuPont- model will be gone through systematically by starting with ROE. Later we will go into benchmark analyses and compare or large international breweries with Carlsberg ROE Return on equity ROE expresses return on amount of capital investor has invested. Following relations by operating activities and financial activities are: 48 Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdiansættelse- En praktisk tilgang, p

41 Figure 4.5: ROE 49 ROE = ROIC + [FLEV * (ROIC r)] The next table shows a positive return throughout whole period. Carlsberg has a strong ROE in period, and ratio must be stated as satisfactory for owners and Carlsberg Group. Figure 4.6: Calculated yearly ROE 50 ROE % 15 % 15 % 5 % 7 % To analyze reason for strong returns, we will look at analysis of components of ROE. ROE is divided into operating activities and financing activities Operating activities ROIC Return on invested capital ROIC expresses how Carlsberg have benefited from ir resources. The higher ROIC is, better Carlsberg has benefited from ir resources, and following if ROIC increase, ROE will increase. Figure 4.7: ROIC 51 ROIC= NOPAT/NOA 49 Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdisættelse. En praktisk tilgang, p Own manufacturing from reformulated financial statements 51 Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdisættelse. En praktisk tilgang, p

42 The next table shows that ROIC has been on a stable level through analyzed period. The best ROIC level has been 8% and lowest level of ROIC was in In 2008 market fell due to recession, and we can see that ROIC expresses difficulties of taking advantage of ir resources. The differences in 2005 and 2008 compare to or years cannot be distinguished and interpreted clear and direct from ROIC alone, so we will take a look at this at next level. Also, we cannot tell how much of relations between ROIC and ROE is affecting each or. Figure 4.8: Calculated ROIC 52 ROIC ,70 % 7,60 % 8,00 % 4,30 % 5,50 % PM Operating profit margin The profit margin creates ROIC toger with asset turnover. The profit margin tells us profitability of each crone per sale. The next figure shows how we can calculate profit margin. Figure 4.9: PM PM = NOPAT/Net revenue Figure 4.10: PM Own manufacturing from reformulated financial statement 53 Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdisættelse. En praktisk tilgang, p

43 Profitt margin ,90 % 8,70 % 8,80 % 9,00 % 10,80 % We can see that PM has increased steadily in period of analysis, also in period of recession. But as we saw in previous section ROIC has dropped to 5% two years ago and has been held at 5% last year. From this we can interpret that control of revenues compared to expenses has been strong. In next section PM is divided into PM for sales and PM for or operations. Figure 4.11: PM for sales and or operations PM (sales) = NOPAT (sales)/net revenue PM (or operations) = NOPAT (or operations)/net revenue Figure 4.12: Divided PM 54 PM sales (primary operations) PM sales( or operations) ,10 % 8,20 % 8,00 % 8,10 % 10,90 % 0,80 % 0,50 % 0,80 % 0,90 % 0,10 % As you can see from figure, PM for sales is much better than PM for or operations in period. Because Carlsberg focuses on ir operating activities in sale, result came as no surprise. The PM for sales has increased from 4, 9% in 2005 to 10, 9% in. The PM for or items is at a stable level in period, except in when PM was down by 0, 10%. The negative PM for or items is mainly because of a decrease in gain of disposals in real estate under or activities 55. But annual report does not tell us in which country decrease in gains is derived from. 54 Own manufacturing 55 Annual report, note 6, p

44 Figure 4.13: Net comprehensive income PM PM, net comprehensive income= Net comprehensive income/ net revenue PM, net comprehensive income Figure 4.14: PM for net comprehensive income ,90 % 6,40 % 6,10 % 3,80 % 6,10 % We can see that PM for net comprehensive income has increased from 2, 9% in 2005 to 6, 1% in. This indicates that Carlsberg has had a better productivity which has led to a strong PM in sales. Before we can conclude that operating PM is primary development factor in DuPont- model we use in analysis as a reference framework, we will analyze and discuss asset turnover for Carlsberg AT Asset turnover Asset turnover is a measure of sales per crones for investments in NOA. To find asset turnover we can use following formula: Figure 4.15: Asset turnover 57 Asset turnover= Sales/NOA As you can see in calculations of assets turnover in figure 4.16, re has been an increase in first three years and n a decrease in This tells us that Carlsberg has generated more sales over years due to NOA, except in 2008, which was a tough year 56 Stephen H. Penman, Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation, 4 th EDT. p Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdisættelse. En praktisk tilgang, p

45 for beer industry. In AT has increased compared to 2008, but is lower than in period Companies with a high PM often have a lower AT. In Carlsberg`s mature market, especially in Norrn- and Western European region where beer consumption has dropped, but also in growth market in Eastern Europe, industry can be difficult to enter for new competitors. The NOA has increased much in 2008 because of acquisition of S&N. By discussing AT and PM we can see that Carlsberg has a stronger PM than AT. This makes it easier to achieve a stronger PM and more difficult to increase AT. Asset turnover Figure 4.16: AT ,79 0,88 0,91 0,47 0, Financing activities The financing activities make right side of extended DuPont- model, where we will look at factors; FLEV, r and SPREAD. The financing activities have, as ROIC, an effect on ROE. The relation is as shown earlier: Figure 4.17: ROE 59 ROE = ROIC + [FLEV * (ROIC r)] FLEV Financial leverage The FLEV expresses financial leverage in firm. The company often finances NOA with NFO and equity. The FLEV can be found by making a ratio by comparing NFO to 58 Own manufacturing 59 Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdisættelse. En praktisk tilgang, p

46 equity. The FLEV measures relations between two sources of financing. As following FLEV is: Figure 4.18: FLEV 60 FLEV ,47 1,46 1,46 1,1 0,98 FLEV is stable in period compared to drop in 2008 and. The drop in FLEV is caused by a higher increase in percentage of equity compared to NFO. This tells us that Carlsberg has strengned ir equity base through period, which makes it easier to finance breweries in future r r expresses relationship between net financial expenses and NFO. Figure 4.19: r r ,10 % 2,20 % 3,10 % 3,90 % 3,90 % The factor r has had very small fluctuations in period of analysis. The reason for increase in period is that net financial expenses in percentage have increased more than what NFO have. Overall, Carlsberg has had a stable r level, which can be explained by effective and well planned financing activities. The usage of r will be explained in section for SPREAD. 60 Own manufacturing 46

47 SPREAD The link arm (ROIC- r) is called SPREAD. On a basis, you can say, if company has a positive SPREAD, company will have a positive financial gearing, because n ROIC is positive geared and will provide a larger ROE. Figure 4.20: SPREAD SPREAD ,60 % 5,40 % 4,90 % 0,40 % 1,60 % Carlsberg has a positive SPREAD through whole period, which means that gearing is positive and ROE increases as a result of positive SPREAD. The SPREAD has fluctuated through five years. We can tell from analysis of ROE that ROIC has increased and link arm (FLEV*SPREAD) has decreased. This means that increase of ROE in period is due to increase in ROIC. The fall in ratios; SPREAD and FLEV has been weaker in end of period we analyze. The reason for this may be Carlsberg`s appearance in large Norrn- and Western European region which has been in a market with intensive competition where re have been many acquisitions last decade RISK The analysis of profitability in section above shows development in period Furr on, analysis gives us an overview of factors which affects ROE, both advantages and disadvantages. The realized results are of course not guaranties for future results, so we will discuss key ratios due to an analysis of risk Operational risk The operational risk includes analysis of risk in PM, AT, OLLEV 61 and foreign exchange rates. 61 OLLEV is a shortening for operating liability leverage 47

48 Risk in PM The risk in PM is basically about relation between sale and expenses. The PM can be pushed by a decline in sales. There can be many factors leading to provide a decline in sales. These factors can following be: New beer introduced to industry, national governments applying new rules and policies, for example by taxes which can affect prices and consumer preferences and competitors developing new brewing technology. The expenses, off course, have an important role for risk in PM. Carlsberg has a large expense in cost of sale, such as cost of materials, which absolutely is one of Carlsberg`s most important expenses. Furr on, sales and distribution expenses, as well as marketing plays a large role in Carlsberg`s operations. Clearly, expenses should at all-time be held on track in brewing industry`s playing field Risk in AT The risk by AT is Carlsberg`s possibility to adjust NOA in relations to sales. The adjustment for assets can be a large process, because non- current assets as breweries, buildings and or machinery is a large part of assets, and se kinds of assets can be difficult to cut down on. We can conclude that Carlsberg has a significant risk in AT Risk in OLLEV OLLEV expresses risk in a fall in operating liabilities (OL) compared to NOA. By this happening, Carlsberg can get financial issues and suppliers can pull back credit which Carlsberg gains from. We can evaluate risk in OLLEV as very small Risk in foreign exchange As mentioned in strategic analysis, Carlsberg has a large part of ir revenues in or parts than Danish exchange rate. The Group is exposed to following currencies: RUB, EUR, GBP, CHF, NOK, SEK, PLN and UAH. Figure 4.21: Distribution of revenue nominated in foreign exchange rates 48

49 Source: Carlsberg annual report, p. 107 Carlsberg has foreign exchange risk in translation of debt in or currencies than relevant for specific entities Carlsberg has invested in and will invest in. The net investments and new debt which follows in investments makes Carlsberg exposed to exchange rate risk. By comparing to 2008, Carlsberg has had some losses due to investments which include risk in foreign exchange. The fluctuations in have provided exchange rate losses for Carlsberg in terms of operating income. The largest losses have been in following exchange rate relations: RUB/DKK which has dropped 17% since GBP/DKK which dropped 11% compared to 2008 and NOK/DKK which fell 6% compared to Since 2006, Carlsberg and Baltika breweries have balanced financial expenses in foreign currencies to mitigate risk exposure of RUB. Denmark`s fixed exchange rate regime has made Carlsberg having no risk in DKK/EUR relationship Financial risk The financial risk includes risk in FLEV and SPREAD, as well as interest rate risk. 62 Annual report, note 34, p

50 Risk in FLEV and SPREAD FLEV has decreased in period There is very little risk in drop in FLEV. On or hand, if FLEV had increased every year financial risk would have been higher. This is because an increase in NFO would have led to higher risk exposure in to interest rate and n higher net financial expenses. Furr on, in SPREAD ratio, if everything else is equal, an increase in debt will increase risk in form of interest rate risk as in case of FLEV. By an increase in debt, investors will require a higher return on ir investment. In today`s situation we can conclude that re is little risk due to FLEV and SPREAD Interest rate risk The risk of Carlsberg`s interest rate risk is considered due to long- term bank borrowings, short- term bank borrowing and long- term bonds. Carlsberg has a total of DKK million in gross debt, 63. The total bank borrowings are DKK mill which are 58, 7% of total borrowings. Furr on, issued bonds has a book value of 34, 3 % of total debt, which is DKK mill. The bonds are fixed rate, ranging with an interest rate from 6, 22%- 7, 41%, where bonds with highest interest rate are ones with longest maturity 64. The bank borrowings are divided in floating rates and fixed rates, where floating rate borrowings stands for DKK mill. and fixed rate borrowings amounts to DKK mill. The bank borrowings which stands for largest amount of borrowings has a maturity of 2-3 years, which is in range of duration of 2, 1. In next figure you can see date of maturity on Carlsberg`s debt. Figure 4.22: Debt outstanding for payment 63 Annual report, note 24, p Annual report, note 24, p

51 Source: Carlsberg annual report, note 34, p. 111 The exposure in interest rate risk is mainly in EUR and USD on a short term, but also some risk in DKK. In medium- to long- term risk lies primarily in EUR. The short term debt is primarily used to control foreign exchange risk. We consider exchange rate risk to be little Common size analysis In last sections analysis of key financial ratios re are many key financial ratios for Carlsberg which are analyzed. The development is not yet compared to or breweries or companies with similar products in industry. By comparing important key financial ratios as a reference to or breweries, it is possible to indicate how Carlsberg has performed 65 toger with or companies in brewing industry Breweries in common size analysis To get optimal analysis it is important to choose companies which sells products which are equal to Carlsberg`s products and which competes on same market. The companies chosen for common size analysis solely has its core business and resources in brewing. 65 Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdisættelse. En praktisk tilgang, p

52 The companies are Heineken, SAB Miller and Anheuser- Busch InBev (AB InBev). Heineken 66 is based in Nerlands and was founded in Amsterdam. Their main products are Heineken and Amstel beers. As discussed, Heineken joined Carlsberg to acquire S&N in In Heineken had 55,2% of ir total revenues in Western Europe, 20,9% in Central and Eastern Europe, 11,9% in Africa and Middle East, 10% in America and 2% in region Asia Pacific. SAB Miller 67 was found in South Africa and has ir headquarters in UK. Their most recognized brands are Grolsch which were acquired by SAB Miller in 2008, Miller Genuine Draft, Pilsner Urquell and Peroni Nastro Azzurro. The EBITA contribution for SAB Miller Group in 2010 where: 21% from South Africa, 15% from Africa and Asia, 14% from North America, 22% from Europe and 21% from Latin America. AB InBev 68 has ir roots from Den Hoorn Brewery in Belgium from 14 th century. AB merged with InBev in Their most known brands are Budweiser, Stella Artois, Becks, Leffe and Hoegaarden. For year AB InBev has ir share of EBITDA in spread in following way: 45% in North America, 33,5% in Latin America, 12, 1% in Europe, 2,7% in Asia Pacific and 6, 7% in exporting and holding companies around world. The financial statement analysis covers accounting years 2007, 2008 and. The official annual reports are used to calculate key ratios, because reformulating all annual reports will be too much work. So we have also calculated key ratios for Carlsberg on basis official annual reports. There are no regulations of annual reports. The annual reports have an accounting period by , except SAB Miller which has The key ratios for common size analysis which are calculated are ROI, PM, AT and FLEV

53 ROI return on investments ratio ROI is calculated as profit before tax / total assets. Figure 4.23: ROI All of big four breweries have gone through financial crisis with positive ROI. As we can see, Heineken and AB InBev have had exact similar developments in years 2007-, and ir ROI in following years have been 11, 1%, 2, 9% and 7, 1% for period. SAB Miller has increased ROI by 0, 2% throughout period of three years. Carlsberg have has experienced a ROI rate of 5, 9% in 2007, 2% in 2008 and 4, 2% in. This is good due to fact that y have had largest percentage increase in profit before tax and second largest percentage increase, after AB InBev, in total assets PM Profit margin ratio The PM ratio is calculated as following; profit before tax/net revenue Figure 4.24: PM 53

54 By looking at PM we see that Carlsberg is only brewery which has increased ir PM in period. The PM for Carlsberg has been 8, 1%, 4, 8% and 9, 6% for period We can tell from figure that AB InBev has a high PM; this is because y have had a well-managed integration between Anheuser Busch and InBev which have increased ir net revenue in period by 57%, which accounts for $19560 mill in. SAB Miller and Heineken have had drops of 7, 5% and 17, 8% in ir PM rate compared to AT Asset turnover ratio The AT ratio is calculated by net revenue/ total assets Figure 4.25: AT 54

55 SAB Miller has had a strong period with an increase of 8, 2% in ir AT rate in period. Heineken provided, with a small margin, a stronger AT rate than Carlsberg. In case of AB InBev, brewery was just behind Carlsberg due to ir AT rate which were 4% below Carlsberg`s by looking at decrease in AT rate in compared to FLEV Financial leverage ratio The FLEV ratio is calculated as NFO/ equity Figure 4.26: FLEV 55

56 The FLEV rate is a measure of companies financial strength. From Carlsberg has had a decrease in FLEV. The FLEV has gone from 1, 1 to 0, 3 in period. The reason for Carlsberg FLEV level is that y have managed to increase ir equity base by a multiple of 2, 94 in only three years and at same time lowered ir NFO by 27, 2%. Carlsberg`s financial position is strong compared to competitors, something which is very important in an industry which frequently is characterized by consolidation. In this way Carlsberg has great possibilities by acquiring breweries in future. SAB Miller has had a stable financial level in analyzed period and ir FLEV rate, hardly spoken, hasn`t changed at all. Heineken has had a small decrease in ir equity and a large increase in NFO, which have made FLEV rate fluctuate from 0, 1 to 1, 7 in period. AB InBev`s FLEV rate where -0, 1in 2007 and has risen to 1, 5 in Conclusion of financial statement analysis The financial statement analysis had purpose of mapping development of Carlsberg`s financial statements in period and to find and analyze financial value drivers. 56

57 The financial statement analysis shows that Carlsberg has an increase in ROE though five year period, in, ROE was 7%. The increase in ROE is due to a continuous increase in ROIC, which was 5, 5% in. ROIC is put toger by PM and AT. The PM is primary reason for ROIC and increasing ROE. The PM is 10, 8% in. The increasing PM derives from PM from Carlsberg`s sale by operating activities, which is 10, 9% in. Carlsberg`s FLEV is decreasing through whole period. This is an explanatory factor for Carlsberg`s strong financial position. Carlsberg identifies ir future expected cash flow in foreign exchange rates by financial derivatives. 93% of Carlsberg`s debt is bank borrowings and issued bonds. On a medium- to long- term basis, y are exposed to risk in EUR, but as discussed in section of interest rate risk, government is controlling DKK/EUR through a fixed rate policy, so in practice re is no risk in exposure of EUR. We looked at ROI, PM, AT and FLEV in common size analysis, where we compared three companies with Carlsberg. Carlsberg has, in relative terms, strongest financial position and is only company which has increased ir PM in period due to sales by operating activities. The big four in three year period, are characterized by a large increasing asset base and with much higher NFO. 57

58 5 Valuation We have adapted to condition of having a base of more than one valuation- model, so we can evaluate Carlsberg, and avoid false premises in valuation process by only using one model. Our primary valuation model will be discounted cash flow (DCF) model. On a secondary basis we will calculate value by calculating value with help from P/B-, P/EBITDA and EV/EBITDA- model. 5.1 Valuation by DCF model We will begin valuation with DCF- model which is shown in following model 69 : Budget period In budget period we will decide upon expected free cash flow, which will be discounted with investors and lenders requirements on return, which in our case is wacc. The optimal would be to have an infinitely budget period, but that is in case of our situation not possible. In valuation of Carlsberg we have used a budget period for five years, where Carlsberg`s is expected to have a steady state growth Terminal period The terminal period describes an infinitely expected forecasted decided upon by growth rate, g. The terminal period has a large impact on our estimation; hence estimate is very sensitive in estimation of value in terminal period. 69 Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdisættelse. En praktisk tilgang, p

59 The budget period and terminal value decides company value. When we have decided upon value of equity, we must subtract NFO from value of equity. In next section we will decide upon budget and future wacc. 5.2 Budgeting To decide future expected cash flows we need to forward a budget. The budget will be calculated on basis of strategic- and financial statement analysis, and as discussed will be for years The value of budgeting factors will be discussed in next section Development in sale The development in sale will be divided in following sub groups: Norrn- and Western Europe, Eastern Europe and Asia. Norrn- and Western Europe The region is expected to have a low growth rate in GDP. This also is case for beer consumption. This market is a mature market, as we discussed in strategic analysis. The competition in industry at region is intense and we can expect a moderate growth in existing market. The new segment for special beer, where Carlsberg has entered with Jacobsen pilsner has grown last years and we can expect an increase of market share for Carlsberg in this segment. We consider issues of substitution from beer to wine as factor which will decrease growth in Carlsberg`s net revenue in budget period. Eastern Europe The growth market has been strong in period of analysis. The Eastern European market has experienced growth and BBH`s operations by promoting Baltika in region toger with or products from Carlsberg contributes to expectations in growth. One negative aspect for possibilities for organic growth in this region is beer taxes in Russia; this will probably slow increase in beer consumption. Through, Russian 59

60 economy has been characterized by expected decline and fair. This is considered as a factor which will decrease expectations for net revenue on short term. Asia Asia is an emerging market. Carlsberg has a large market share in Western China which is largest contribution to market share in this region. The region stands for 7% of Carlsberg`s net revenue which is important due to positioning in Asian market which is expected to grow strong on long run. Overall, Carlsberg`s development in sales will keep on growing with a relatively high stable rate. Off course, total sales have been increasing much in period due to acquisition of S&N, but combination of strong growth in Asia and Eastern European markets toger with strong financial position of Carlsberg and possibilities for new strategic buys will clearly affect Carlsberg positive with growth in sales in future. We estimate sales to increase with 8% in 2010 and 2011, in 2012 and 2013 we will expect a growth rate of 7% and in 2014 and in terminal year, 2015 we estimate sales rate to increase 6% AT The budgeting of AT 70 will be used to calculate NOA for budgeting period. As you know, AT is a ratio which measures sale for each crone invested, and tells us about status of relations, in relevant period, between sales and NOA. To put AT in perspective we can tell from benchmark analysis that breweries has increased ir asset base through organic growth and acquisitions, and y all have found an AT rate which suits ir own business model. The AT has decreased during period. But we will use an increasing value for period as for calculating AT for and terminal period With background for our analysis we will use an AT rate as shown in table below. Figure 5.1: Budgeted AT 70 Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdisættelse. En praktisk tilgang, p

61 E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Net revenue , , , , , ,80 AT 0, , , , , ,53 0,57 0,60 0,63 0,65 0,65 NOA PM (sales) The net revenue is driven by sales in beer, which gives Carlsberg an advantage in cost of sales, distribution and administration. Carlsberg have lowered cost level, and by doing this y have increased PM. In annual report Carlsberg states that y have cut costs and are planning keep on integrating operating activities in company 71. Carlsberg has regulated ir operating margin targets by regions. Their new targets as following are: 15-17% in Norrn- and Western Europe (previously 14-16%), 26-29% in Eastern Europe (previously 23-25%) and Asia 15-20%. For all Carlsberg s operations target is set to 20% 72. We can tell by this, that financial targets put by Carlsberg on operating margin has strengned PM (sale) in Carlsberg and following ir financial position. According to PM calculated by reformulation of income statement, PM rate has grown from 5, 1% in 2005 to 10, 9% in. On basis of above mentioned factors and earlier analysis, we will set PM rate to 10, 5% in 2010, 10, 75% in 2011, and 11% for 2012 and beyond Tax Carlsberg is operating with a tax rate of 25%. This rate will be used through whole budget period. 71 Annual report, p Annual report, p. 7 61

62 5.2.5 NOPAT (or operations) The post includes gains/losses on real estate, financial products and funding and expenses in R&D activities 73. The posts do not have clear underlying values; hence analysts often place this post in relations with total sales 74. The core NOPAT for or operations is calculated in next figure. Figure 5.2: E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E NOPAT (or operations) ,00 299,20 329,12 362,03 398,24 438,06 In period 2005-, NOPAT (or operations) amounts to a mean value of DKK 272 mill. We will use mean value as a starting point of budget in Furr on, core NOPAT for or operations will be set at a constant growth rate of 10% Future free cash flow Now, when we have decided PM and NOA`s, we can decide upon future free cash flow. Figure 5.2: Budgeted FCFF Terminal period 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Valuation of Carlsberg Group by DCF model NOPAT NOA FCFF Annual report, note 6, p Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdisættelse. En praktisk tilgang, p

63 5.3 Cost of capital WACC To conclude on final estimate for DCF- model, we will decide wacc. The wacc expresses required rate of return for investors and lenders. Wacc is expressed in following way: Figure 5.3: WACC 75 WACC = rd (1 Tc) D/V + re * E/V To decide wacc we will first decide capital structure and required return for investors and debt holders Capital structure The capital structure is decided by market value of equity and debt. Practically speaking, market value of equity is primary purpose of this assignment. The value of equity will be decided by stock value of one Carlsberg B share at date The A shares are also listed on OMX Copenhagen stock exchange, and will be calculated in value of equity. Figure 5.4: 75 Brealey, Myers and Allen, Principles of Corporate Finance, Ninth edt., p

64 Market value equity A shares 33,69925 B shares 118,8576 Share price Market value equity, DKK mill 58581,81 Capital structure Debt Equity portion 60 % Debt portion 40 % The market value of debt is decided in NFO which is calculated in reformulated balance sheet. On , NFO amounts to DKK mill. The capital structure is shown in figure 5.4. The experts in cost of capital often suggest a constant rate, which makes calculation of equity- and debt portion easier. But, one of disadvantages with providing a constant wacc to DCF- model is fact that capital structure varies from year to year, or even more often. So, if capital structure will change during budget period, re will be biases in estimated value 76. After we have valuated Carlsberg share we will do a scenario analysis to analyze changes variables included in wacc. Carlsberg considers capital structure to be satisfying for shareholders and company. The above mentioned capital structure will be applied as a constant 77 when we decide wacc Required rate of return on debt rd Carlsberg has financial liabilities summing to DKK million, at date The non- current liabilities are mainly bank borrowings and issued bonds which are measured in amortized costs. The long- term bank borrowing is amounted for DKK mill., and pays 76 Thomas Plenborg, Firm valuation: Comparing residual income and discounted cash flow approach, p. 313 (11) 77 Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdisættelse. En praktisk tilgang, p

65 a fixed rate at 4, 91% including margin in 78 (from 5, 03% in 2008). The bonds operates with an average yield of 6, 59% and has a total value of DKK mill. The current liabilities consists primary of bank borrowings, which is amounted to DKK 3013 mill. The interest rate on short- term debt is no to be found in any of Carlsberg`s reports. But we know that ir risk exposure towards interest rate on a short- term primarily is in EUR and USD, but also secondarily DKK 79. The DKK/EUR is under Danish Government at an fixed rate, and exposure in USD is due to Eastern European currencies, Eastern European currencies which are hedged with USD fluctuates in a degree, that re is difficult to calculate a constant required rate of return on debt due to this relation. Furr on, USD/ Eastern European currency relationships consists of a small portion of total financial liabilities, so interest rate exposure is relatively small. In accordance to interest rate exposure to DKK in short run, we can look at reference rates, such as CIBOR 3 80 and CIBOR 6, which has respectively been 1, 5521% and 1, 07057% for December. The CIBOR rates are low compared to ir peak, in period of our analysis (2005- ), in November 2008, where CIBOR 3 was 6, 0757% and CIBOR 6 6, 0926%. We consider Carlsberg`s debt to be well hedged by ir large decrease in debt compared to debt level in 2008 and lenders can only require a very small risk premium due to Carlsberg`s strong financial position. For estimate of wacc we will use an interest rate of 5, 5% as cost of debt, as we find this realistic Required rate of return on equity re To decide owners required rate of return we will use CAPM. CAPM 81 is shown in next figure: Figure 5.5: Required return on equity r(carlsberg) = rf + (rm (Carlsberg) rf) * β 78 Annual report, note 24, p Annual report, note 34, p This page covers development in interest rate for CIBOR 3 and CIBOR 6 81 Brealey, Myers and Allen, Principles of Corporate Finance, Ninth EDT., p

66 The risk free rate rf In ory risk free rate 82 is equal to zero coupon bonds, which is suitable with time horizon due to each cash flow`s that will be discounted back. This is impossible within frames of this assignment and refore we will use Danish government bonds with a ten year maturity to estimate risk free rate. The Danish Government Bond has a maturity date in 2019 with an effective rate of 3, 62% 83. The effective rate will be used in CAP- model as risk free rate Beta β The beta expresses assets sensitivity to market risk. The market risk is also called systematic risk. The systematic risk affects all assets in market in different degrees. The systematic risk consists of following factors: inflation, interest rate level and oil prices. We cannot get rid of systematic risk by diversification. In next figure we can see relation between beta value and risk. β = 0 0 β 1 β = 1 β 1 Figure 5.6: Relation between beta and risk 84 Investments are risk free Investments with less risk than market portfolio Risk equal to market portfolio Investments with more risk than market portfolio 82 Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdisættelse. En praktisk tilgang, p yield at was not possible to track, so we consider, in terms of equal value, yield from as proper yield to use for risk free rate. 84 Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdisættelse. En Praktisk Tilgang, p

67 Before we calculate beta, we need to consider following assumptions to get an accurate measure 85 : The measurement period for regression should at least have five years of historical data The regression should be based on monthly returns. Company stock returns should be regressed against a value- weighted, welldiversified market portfolio The historical beta value will be calculated by a regression analysis in excel 86. See appendix 25. To decide beta value, we will value return of Carlsberg`s shares compared to return on market index, which will represent value of market portfolio. We have chosen Danish OMX C20 index, where Carlsberg is traded, to represent value of market portfolio. There is chosen returns for seven years; In regression we found that beta is 1, 067. We will use beta estimate for valuation later on. This means that Carlsberg`s has a little more risk than market portfolio The market risk premium RM rf The risk premium 87 is extra required return investors demands, if y are to invest in something else than risk free rate. According to Ole Sørensen we can do research and interviews of different investors to collect data and decide market risk premium. The market risk premium ranges from 9% - 2% 88. By estimating market risk premium in a period of economic recovery, we need to consider alternatives. In recession, assets which were considered risk free, such as government bonds has decreased in value, but this has also been case for expected return in market portfolio. In or words, market risk premium in period has not changed much. We will use a market risk premium of 6% in our analysis. 85 Koller, Goedhart and Wessels, Valuation- Measuring and Managing Value of Companies, p Benninga Simon, Financial Modeling, p Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdisættelse. En praktisk tilgang, p Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdisættelse. En praktisk tilgang, p

68 Tax rate Tc We will use tax rate of 25%, as we have done earlier on. Now we can decide wacc. Figure 5.7: values to estimate wacc Weight Equity Weight Debt rf Market risk premium Cost of equity Cost of debt Tax rate WACC 0,6 0,4 3,62 % 6,00 % 10,00 % 5,50 % 25,00 % 7,65 % As we can see required rate of return for investors and lenders are 7, 65%. 5.4 Terminal period There is not possible to have an infinitely budget period, so we use a terminal period. The terminal value is calculated by following formula and discounted wacc. Terminal value = FCFF = Future free cash flow in terminal year rwacc = The constant wacc g = Growth We need to go through assumptions of growth rate (g) before we can start calculating estimate. The terminal period is at a steady state- level and we will assume that growths in sales, PM and AT are constants Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdisættelse. En praktisk tilgang, p

69 To decide g, we will use our basis from strategic analysis. In strategic analysis we concluded that re are large growth opportunities in Asia and Eastern Europe. At an early stage, Carlsberg positioned mselves in se two regions, this is a strategic advantage, because y have breweries in regions and sales, distribution and marketing activities will be run better because y have been in a establishing face for several years. This makes Carlsberg well positioned compared to competitors. Carlsberg have had a large growth last years, but Norrn- and Western European market is on a though spot. In our estimate we will use g = 3%. The growth rate has a large impact on valuation of Carlsberg, which we can see later in scenario analysis. 5.5 Valuation by DCF model Figure 5.8: DCF- model Terminal period 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Valuation of Carlsberg Group by DCF model NOPAT NOA FCFF Discounting rate 1,0765 1,1589 1,2475 1,3429 1,4457 1,5563 PV FCFF PV RIDO (2014) Terminal value (TV) PV TV PV core operating activities Company value NFO Monority interests 4660 Value equity No. A shares Value per B share 428 No. B shares

70 In estimation of Carlsberg B share, correct price of one share is DKK 428. Carlsberg closing price was 384. Intuitively, this tells us that share is underpriced. One way to check if we have calculated right estimate is to compare calculation of share price, by calculating residual income. The residual income model (RIDO), has coherence with DCF- model in terms of income statement, balance sheet and statement of cash flow, but also with dividend model 90. The next figure is RIDO. Figure 5.9: RIDO Terminalperiod 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Valuation of Carlsberg Group by RIDO NOPAT NOA ROIC 0, , , , , , RIDO Discounting 0,0765 1,08 1,16 1,25 1,34 1,45 1,56 PV RIDO PV RIDO (2014) Terminal vale (TV) PV TV PV core operating activities Enterprise value NFO Minority interests 4660 Value equity NO. A shares Value B shares 428 No. B shares As we can see, valuation by RIDO is equivalent with share price estimated in DCF- model. There can be several reasons for difference in share price of DKK 54. The discounting rate is an important factor in DCF- model. The discounting rate, as known, is estimated by wacc. There are several variables in wacc, and following, re may be 90 Ole Sørensen, Regnskapsanalyse og verdisættelse. En praktisk tilgang, p

71 many different values in discounting rate when variables change or are estimated differently. Anor factor which is sensitive to DCF- model is terminal period. By this factor, a small movement in growth will make share price fluctuate much. Changes in wacc affects estimate of share price, se movements will be analyzed in scenario analysis in next section. There is too early to decide if estimate of Carlsberg B share is correct priced, due to assumption that one valuation model cannot stand by itself. 5.6 Scenario analysis To understand changes in different variables in cost of capital, we will create scenarios, and following analyze how changes affect Carlsberg B share calculated in DCF- model. The analysis of scenarios will contain variables from wacc and terminal period. All different scenario analysis will be calculated in excel Movements in cost of debt We will start by analyzing changes in wacc by movements in required return of debt. The scenario analysis is done in excel, by changes in factors which influences wacc. Figure 5.10: Fluctuations in cost of debt 91 Benninga Simon, Financial Modeling, p

72 Changes in Cost d ebt Cost Equity 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 wacc 7,050 % 7,125 % 7,200 % 7,275 % 7,350 % 7,425 % 7,500 % 7,575 % 7,650 % 7,725 % 7,800 % 7,875 % 7,950 % Diff. wacc -0,075 % -0,075 % -0,075 % -0,075 % -0,075 % -0,075 % -0,075 % -0,075 % -0,075 % -0,075 % -0,075 % -0,075 % Cost Debt 0,035 0,0375 0,04 0,0425 0,045 0,0475 0,05 0,0525 0,055 0,0575 0,06 0,0625 0,065 Share price Diff. Price As we can see, figure above measures sensitivity by movements in cost of debt. The data which are chosen for model is a cost of debt ranging from 3, 5% - 6, 5%. We can see when cost of debt changes by 0, 25%, wacc changes by 0, 075%. In terms of value per share, we can see price movements are large, because share is priced between DKK313- DKK850, due to cost of debt. When cost of debt changes with 0, 25%, share price changes between ranges DKK 26- DKK77. In our case Carlsberg B share is valued by assumption that cost of debt is 5, 5%. By figure we can see that if cost of debt increases by 0, 25% B share decreases by DKK 33. On or hand, if cost of debt decreases, from 5, 5% rate used in our valuation earlier in assignment, B share increases by DKK 39, and n has a value of 463. If cost of debt decreases, by anor 0, 25%, B share increases an extra DKK 42, and will n be valued at DKK 502. By analysis of cost of debt, we can see that discounting rate is very sensitive by changes in factor, cost of debt. The or factor to keep in mind is value of terminal value; analysis tells us that relatively small changes in cost of debt will have a large impact on share value in DCF- model. So we must bear in mind importance of deciding a proper cost of debt, when evaluating a company. In next section we will analyze changes in cost of equity and how this affects wacc Movements in cost of equity Figure 5.11: Fluctuations in cost of equity 72

73 Changes in Cost e quity Cost Equity 9,00 % 9,25 % 9,50 % 9,75 % 10,00 % 10,25 % 10,50 % 10,75 % 11,00 % 11,25 % 11,50 % 11,75 % wacc 7,05 % 7,20 % 7,35 % 7,50 % 7,65 % 7,80 % 7,95 % 8,10 % 8,25 % 8,40 % 8,55 % 8,70 % Diff. wacc 0,15 % 0,15 % 0,15 % 0,15 % 0,15 % 0,15 % 0,15 % 0,15 % 0,15 % 0,15 % 0,15 % Cost Debt 5,50 % 5,50 % 5,50 % 5,50 % 5,50 % 5,50 % 5,50 % 5,50 % 5,50 % 5,50 % 5,50 % 5,50 % Share price Diff. Price In figure changes in cost of equity is regulated by movements which is same size, proportional, to figure which illustrates fluctuations in cost of debt and following how wacc is affected. The range of changes in cost of equity is sat between 9%- 12%, by movements of 0, 25% per change in figure`s row. Compared to chosen cost of equity, which is 10% in our valuation, an increase of 0, 25% in cost of equity, changes discounting rate with 0, 15%. Furr on, this leads to a decrease of DKK 62 per B share in our valuation. Following this will lead to a share value of DKK 366. In opposite case, if cost of equity decreases by 0, 25%, discounting rate decreases by 0, 15% and share price will increase by DKK 113, to DKK 592 per B share. As mentioned earlier, two figures illustrating cost of debt and cost of equity has a proportional change by increasing and decreasing analyzed factors in discounting rate by 0, 25%. By comparing se two analyses we can consider difference in change in discounting rate and share price. By assumptions of our calculation of share price in DCF- model, we can compare both increase and decrease of a change of 0, 25%. By an increase in cost of debt, share price drops by DKK 33, this values share at DKK 395. If cost of debt decreases, share price increases with DKK 39, which amounts to DKK 467 per share. In accordance to fluctuations in cost of equity, an increase of 0, 25% in cost of equity makes share price drop by DKK 62, which leaves a share price of DKK 366. In a case where cost if equity decreases by 0, 25%, share price increases by DKK 113, which leaves us with a value per share amounting to DKK 592. By considering changes in cost of equity, both an increase and decrease in this factor leads to larger fluctuations in share price, than what is case for changes in cost of debt. This tells us that share price and wacc is more sensitive to changes in cost of equity than in changes in cost of debt. 73

74 The analysis of cost of equity tells us that a decrease by 0, 25% in cost of equity leads to a larger change in share price, than if cost of equity increases by 0, 25%. This unbalanced fluctuation in share price due to comparison of an increase or decrease, has basis of valuation of terminal period, which is very sensitive. To explain factors of cost of equity we will examine an analysis on how fluctuations in risk free rate will affect cost of equity and following wacc factor and share price Movements in CAPM Next, we will examine analysis of differences in share value due to fluctuations in risk free rate. Figure 5.12: Fluctuations in WACC and CAPM Changes in WACC and CAPM rf 2,6000 % 2,8000 % 3,0000 % 3,2000 % 3,4000 % 3,6000 % 3,8000 % 4,0000 % 4,2000 % 4,4000 % 4,6000 % CostEquity 10,0690 % 10,0556 % 10,0422 % 10,0288 % 10,0154 % 10,0020 % 9,9886 % 9,9752 % 9,9618 % 9,9484 % 9,9350 % Diff. re -0,0134 % -0,0134 % -0,0134 % -0,0134 % -0,0134 % -0,0134 % -0,0134 % -0,0134 % -0,0134 % -0,0134 % r (Rm) 9,6000 % 9,6000 % 9,6000 % 9,6000 % 9,6000 % 9,6000 % 9,6000 % 9,6000 % 9,6000 % 9,6000 % 9,6000 % β 1,0670 1,0670 1,0670 1,0670 1,0670 1,0670 1,0670 1,0670 1,0670 1,0670 1,0670 wacc 7,6914 % 7,6834 % 7,6753 % 7,6673 % 7,6592 % 7,6512 % 7,6432 % 7,6351 % 7,6271 % 7,6190 % 7,6110 % diff. wacc -0,0080 % -0,0080 % -0,0080 % -0,0080 % -0,0080 % -0,0080 % -0,0080 % -0,0080 % -0,0080 % -0,0080 % Share price Diff. Price The analysis tells us that a change of 0, 2% in rf, changes cost of equity by 0, 0134% and following a change of 0, 0134% in cost of capital will change wacc by 0, 008%. By assumptions of calculations we used in DCF- model, we can see that an increase of 0, 2% in rf changes cost of equity from 10, 002% (round down to 10% in estimation in DCF- model) to 9,989%. Furr on, increase in risk free rate will change wacc from 7, 65% to 7, 6432% which makes share price increase by DKK 3; in this case share is valued at DKK 431. On or hand, if risk free rate decreases by 0, 2%, 74

75 cost of equity will be 10, 0154 % and wacc 7, 6592%. By assuming this, share value will be sat at DKK 423, after a drop of DKK 5. By analysis rf we can tell by scenarios that Carlsberg`s B share has little movement when rf changes. Compared to previous scenario analyses, we can see that share price increases and decreases by equal means in value, eir if rf increases or decreases due to one used in valuation, which are 3, 6%. We can also see that round down in cost of equity, from 10, 002% to 10% has almost no effect on share price. 5.7 Relative valuation models The estimation by DCF- model cannot work by itself; refore we will do a valuation of Carlsberg by two or value- models. The purpose of se models is to be able to compare value of a company with companies. In analysis we will compare Carlsberg`s company value with Heineken, SAB Miller and AB InBev P/B, Price book The P/B model expresses market value of company compared to book value. By calculating P/B of companies we can draw a mean from P/B relations in different companies and use this to multiply with book value of Carlsberg. If companies are reasonable peers, P/B can be useful as a value tool, by relating companies values to each or. As we did in common- size analysis, we consider big four as peers. Figure 5.13: P/B P/B Heineken 3, SAB Miller 1, AB InBev 1, Carlsberg 1, Mean 1,

76 By analyzing P/B values we can see that Heineken has highest market price compared to book value, more than twice as much as SAB Miller`s value. Carlsberg is valued to DKK102, 832 billion, which amount to DKK 674 per share, by calculating value with mean from four breweries. As you can see re are large differences in Carlsberg multiple and mean, which we use as an industry multiple. The P/B measure indicates that Carlsberg`s share is strongly underpriced compared to peers P/EBITDA This model expresses market value compared to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization. This value tool is a more accurate measure than P/B due to P/EBITDA model, where operating costs from companies are subtracted and estimated more directly into ratio. Figure 5.14: P/EBITDA P/EBITDA Heineken 5, SAB Miller 5, AB InBev 4, Carlsberg 4, Mean 5, The figure above tells us that SAB Miller has highest P/EBITDA relation and AB InBev has almost identical ratios. By P/EBITDA mean, Carlsberg`s market value is estimated to DKK 61, 79 bill., which is much lower that P/B estimate EV/EBITDA This value model expresses relation between enterprise value 92 and EBITDA. 92 Calculated as market value- cash and cash equivalents + debt 76

77 Figure 5.15: EV/EBITDA Heineken SAB Miller AB InBev Carlsberg Mean EV/EBITDA 10, , , , , The estimate of EV/EBITDA gives us an indication of good choice of peers. Furr on, we can see that market value and debt in relations to EBITDA is close between breweries. The estimate also states that Carlsberg`s shares are overpriced compare to or breweries. The EV/EBITDA estimate tells us that SAB Miller is brewery which has greatest earnings power. But Carlsberg is brewery which is strongest in analysis of relative valuation approaches. 6 Conclusion The main purpose of assignment was to valuate one Carlsberg B share, and conclude if share was underpriced, overpriced or equal to market price. The valuation has basis of strategic analysis and accounting analysis, this has been fundamentals for budgeting which are used in calculations of DCF- model, which is absolute valuation model we have used. The strategic analysis has given us internal- and external factors in terms of analysis of society-, industry- and company analysis. 77

78 In analysis of society, we found that Asian and Eastern European regions have had a large growth in beer consumption last five years, but re have been a decline in Eastern European market in period of The Norrn- and Western region has faced a decline in consumption level in period Part of reason for decline has been substitution in alcoholic drinks, a change in consumption pattern, from beer to wine. The total beer market is expected to grow in markets where Carlsberg is strongly positioned. In analysis of industry level we concluded that re are low possibilities for new entrants in market because of cost structure and difficulties of penetrating market, especially in Norrn- and Western region which is characterized by mature markets. In Eastern Europe y have invested in capacity and innovation, which also is case in Asian region. The revenues are expected to increase due to investments from recent years, especially with help from acquisition of S&N. The competition are mainly from Heineken, SAB Miller and AB InBev, competition is, as mentioned high, and se players have toger with Carlsberg more than 40% of total market, but re are still good growth opportunities for Carlsberg, not just for ir strong performance in different regions, but also ir possibilities of investing in new markets where ir presence are low. On a company level product portfolio is considered to be well diversified. The most exiting brands are Carlsberg pilsner, Tuborg, Baltika and Kronenbourg. These are products which re still are great potential in. As discussed earlier, regions with best possibilities for growth are Asia and Eastern Europe, but also in central and eastern part of Norrn- and Western region. Carlsberg`s excellence programs are implemented in some countries, while in or countries re will be adopted and established excellence programs in or countries in future. The 78

79 programs works as a strategy for Carlsberg to restructure operations, improve productivity and lower costs. The accounting analysis had basis of Carlsberg`s annual reports in period Carlsberg has had an increase in net revenues and NOPAT (sales) whole period. The analysis of key figures, told us that Carlsberg has increased ROE, ROIC and PM through period of analysis, The drop in ROE from in period have been because of recession, now ROE has increased again and Carlsberg has increased ir PM (sales) through whole period, Carlsberg`s PM (sales) for is 10,9%. In benchmark analysis we calculated ROI, PM, AT and FLEV, and compared Carlsberg to ir strongest competitors. The benchmark analysis showed us that Carlsberg is most interesting brewery by combination of a strong PM and FLEV. Through acquisitions, in or breweries, we saw that debt level has increased much in period of analysis, With basis from strategic analysis, reformulation of financial statements and profitability analysis, Carlsberg`s budget has been decided. Furr on, discounting rate was decided by wacc and we could n calculate Carlsberg`s share price in DCF- model. Carlsberg`s B share was estimated to DKK 428, for date, Carlsberg`s B share had, , a closing price of DKK 384 at Copenhagen Stock Exchange. By this estimate Carlsberg B share seems to be undervalued. The market prices of B share were lower than price calculated by DCF- model. 79

80 The DCF- model has several factors which can have an impact on estimated price, such as wacc and future growth. A change in wacc, of 0, 15% can make share price move DKK 62 if wacc increases and DKK 90 if wacc decreases. The scenario analysis tells us that small changes in factors in estimate can have a relatively large impact on share price. But still, we value Carlsberg B share as underpriced. The valuation by relative valuation models has basis of mean of multiples from Heineken, SAB Miller and AB InBev, which are considered as a stable choice of peers for Carlsberg. The estimate by P/B multiple supported earlier estimate, which showed us that Carlsberg`s B share was underpriced. The P/B method estimated price to DKK 674, by mean of multiples in industry. The P/EBITDA estimate was quit equal among peers and showed that Carlsberg had a lower P/EBITDA than industry mean. Also EV/EBITDA showed that level of peers was stable, but here Carlsberg had a multiple, which were higher than mean. By this P/EBITDA and EV/EBITDA tells us that Carlsberg had both a weaker and stronger level relative to peers. In our case, relative value models support DCF estimate, and underestimation of Carlsberg share is clearer by support from relative value models. We conclude that Carlsberg B share is undervalued in market, and at date re exists an unrealized gain in share. 7 References Books and articles Benninga, Simon, 2008, Financial Modeling, 3 rd edn, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Brealey, R, A, Myers, S, C & Allen, F, 2008, Principles of Corporate Finance, 9 th edn, McGraw- Hill, New York 80

81 Koller, T, Goedhart, M, & Wessels, D, 2010, Valuation: Measuring and Managing Value of Companies, 5 th edn, John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken Penman, Stephen, H, 2010, Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation, 4 th edn, McGraw- Hill, New York Plenborg, Thomas, 2002, Firm valuation: Comparing residual income and discounted cash flow approach, Scandinavian Journal of Management, issue 18, p Sørensen, Ole,, Regnskapsanalyse og Verdiansættelse- En Praktisk Tilgang, 3. udgave, Narayana Press, Gylling Websites Euroinvestor.dk Imf.org nationalbanken.statistikkbank.dk Annual reports Carlsberg Heineken SAB Miller AB InBev

82 8 Appendices Appendix 1: Development in OMXC 20 and Carlsberg B share Appendix 2: Structure of assignment Presentation of The Carlsberg Group Strategic analysis Accounting analysis Valuation Conclusion 82

83 Appendix 3: Key financial figures Appendix 4: Development in net revenues, Appendix 5: Development in operating profit,

84 Appendix 6: Development in operating margin, Appendix 7: Development in beer consumption, GDP and population Norrn- and Western Europe 84

85 Appendix 8: Carlsberg`s Development in key figures 85

86 Development in Carlsberg, 2007 Net revenues, DKK bill. Norrn and Western Europe Eatsern Europe Asia ,087 37,128 36,5 9,658 19,137 18,5 2,886 3,555 4,2 Operating profit, DKK bill Norrn and Western Europe 3,383 3,953 4,2 Eatsern Europe 2,134 4,109 5,3 Asia 0,366 0,511 0,7 Operating margin, percentage Norrn and Western Europe 10,54 % 10,65 % 11,51 % Eatsern Europe 22,10 % 21,47 % 28,65 % Asia 12,68 % 14,37 % 16,67 % Appendix 9: Development in beer consumption, GDP and population Eastern Europe 86

87 Consum p. Litre GDP growth Populati on Consu mp. GDP growth Populati on Consu mp. GDP growth Popula tion Consu mp. GDP growth Popula tion Country/Year Consumption, yearly Growth, mean Population, yearly Russia 67 6,4 142,9 75 7,4 141, ,7 70 7,8 141,8 2,80 % 3,25 141,70 Ukraine 52 2,6 46,7 58 6,9 46,3 71 4, ,3 46,3 7,56 % 0,33 46,33 Kazakhsatn 35 9,5 15,2 34 9,5 15,3 39 3,5 15,3 35 1,8 15,7 0,50 % 5,18 15,38 Uzbekistan n/a n/a n/a 11 8,1 27,8 8 8,6 27,3 7 7,8 27,3 10 % 8,17 27,47 Belarus 33n/a n/a 45n/a n/a 50 10,3 9,7 50 1,5 9,7 15,80 % 4,40 9,70 Azerbajian 4 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 6 13,1 8,2 n/a 9,1 8,7 16,70 % 11,10 8,45 Total consumpt Total average 5,50 % 5,29 41,50 Appendix 10: Development in beer consumption, GDP and population Asia 87

88 Consum p. Litre GDP growth Populati on Consu mp. GDP growth Populati on Consu mp. GDP growth Popula tion Consu mp. GDP growth Popula tion Country/Year Consumption, yearly Growth, mean Population, yearly Malaysia 5 5,2 24,4 5 5,7 24,8 5 5,6 25,3 5 1, % 3,70 25,38 Singapore 16 6,4 4,5 19 7,4 4,6 18 2,2 4,6 19 2,1 4,8 6,30 % 3,48 4,63 China 25 10, ,4 1321,9 32 9, , ,80 % 9, ,88 Vietnam 15 8,5 84,4 17 8,2 85,3 21 6,1 86,1 27 4,7 86,2 21,80 % 6,88 85,50 Laos n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 6 6,8 n/a 6,00 6,80 Cambodia n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1,5 14,7 n/a 1,50 14,70 India n/a n/a n/a 1 n/a n/a n/a 5, , n/a 6, ,00 Total consumpt Total average 11,20 % 4,91 371,98 Appendix 11: Estimated Development in Norrn- & Western Europe by GDP measured in per cent and U.S. dollars 88

89 Country/Year Bulgaria, % 5, Bulgaria, $ 6223, , , , , , ,688 Croatia % 5,812 1,456 1,64 2, Croatia $ 15283, , , , , , ,914 Denmark % 4,74 1,952 2,315 2,183 2,081 1,957 1,931 Denmark $ 56263, , , , , , ,02 Estonia % 13,899 1,785 3,5 3,362 3,304 3,243 3,106 Estonia $ 14402, , , , , , ,05 Finland % 8,019 2,424 1,963 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,8 Finland $ 44581, , , , , , ,621 France % 2,547 1,565 1,648 1,803 1,97 2,095 2,059 France $ 42412, , , , , , ,354 Germany % 4,72 3,332 2,022 2,02 1,841 1,671 1,274 Germany $ 40831, , , , , , ,516 Greece % 1,963 3,971 2,633 1,088 2,142 2,101 2,667 Greece $ 29634, , , , , , ,472 Italy % 5,038 1,003 1,001 1,4 1,365 1,34 1,26 Italy $ 35435, , , , , , ,674 Latvia % 17,955 0,979 3,333 3,986 4,024 4,016 3,956 Latvia $ 11465, , , , , , ,739 Lithuania % 14,783 1,289 3,119 2,571 3,317 3,579 3,555 Lithuania $ 11115, , , , , , ,761 Norway % 1,434 0,573 1,791 2,32 2,245 1,98 1,996 Norway $ 78178, , , , , , ,172 Poland % 1,703 3,361 3,697 3,931 4,205 4,294 4,266 Poland $ 11302, , , , , , ,273 Portugal % 2,584 1,122 0,05 0,6 1,1 1,2 1,2 Portugal $ 21969, , , , , , ,947 Serbia % 2,999 1, ,5 5,5 5 Serbia $ 5820, , , , , , ,413 Sweden % 5,144 4,435 2, ,5 3,4 3,4 Sweden $ 43668, , , , , , ,902 Switzerland % 1,912 2,91 1,75 1, Switzerland $ 63535, , , , , , ,66 United Kingdom % 4,897 1,702 2,018 2,285 2,437 2,512 2,58 United Kingdom $ 35257, , , , , , ,736 Appendix 12: Estimated development in Eastern Europe by GDP measured in per cent and U.S. dollars 89

90 Country Azerbaijan % 9,3 4,28 1,764 2,949 2,642 6,953 0,93 Azerbaijan $ 4798, , , , , , ,414 Belarus % 0,24 7,216 6,224 4,707 4,661 4,613 4,534 Belarus $ 5166, , , , , , ,345 Kazakhstan % 1,181 5,4 5,1 5,5 5,9 6,3 6,5 Kazakhstan $ 6930, , , , , , ,84 Russia % 7,9 3,966 4,339 4,4 4,24 4,14 4 Russia $ 8681, , , , , , ,77 Ukraine % 15,1 3,732 4,527 4,802 4,493 4,344 4,033 Ukraine $ 2568, ,8 3484, , , , ,837 Uzbekistan % 8, ,5 6,5 6 Uzbekistan $ 1175, , , , , , ,017 Appendix 13: Estimated development in Asia by GDP measured in per cent and U.S. dollars Country/Year Cambodia % 1,957 4,766 6,816 6,472 6,494 6,633 6,776 Cambodia $ 768, , , , , , ,485 China % 9,096 10,456 9,589 9,536 9,493 9,473 9,451 China $ 3734, , , , , , ,182 India % 5,678 9,668 8,373 7,976 8,174 8,148 8,128 India $ 1031, , , , , , ,755 Lao People's Democratic Republic % 7,59 7,747 7,498 7,347 6,387 7,572 9,318 Lao People's Democratic Republic $ 885, , , , , , ,318 Malaysia % 1,714 6,716 5,3 5,2 5,1 5,1 5 Malaysia $ 6950, , , , , , ,22 Singapore % 1, ,545 4,372 4,205 4,102 4,012 Singapore $ 36378, , , , , , ,96 Vietnam % 5,323 6,468 6,817 7,044 7,24 7,424 7,485 Vietnam $ 1068, , , , , , ,849 Appendix 14: Model of Porter`s five forces 90

91 Appendix 15: Reformulation of income statement 91

92 DKK million Net revenue Cost of sales Deduction of depreciation Gross profitt Sales and distribution expenses Administrative expenses Share of profitt after tax, accociates Special items Or operating income, net EBITDA (Sales) Depriciation & write down EBIT (Sales) Tax from result of primare operations Tax from result of or operations NOPAT (Sales) NOPAT (Or operations) Nopat (Sales+or operations) Financial income Financial expenses Tax from net financial expenses Concern result Non controlling interests Comprehensive income Appendix 16: Depreciation and amortization Depreciation and amortization Cost of sales Sales and distribution expenses Administrative expenses Special items Total depreciation and amortization Appendix 17: NOPAT (sales) and tax deductions Yearly tax rate Corporation tax Tax advantage NOPAT (sale) tax % 25 % 25 % 28 % 28 %

93 Appendix 18: Tax advantage Financial income Financial expenses Net financial expenses Tax effect Appendix 19: Reformulation of balance sheet 93

94 Net operating assets DKK million Operating assets: Intangible assets Property, plant and equipement Investements in associates Cash and cash equivalents Deferred tax assets Retirement benefit plan assets Inventories Receivabels from sale of goods and services On trade loans Tax receivabels Or receivabels Prepayments Total operating assets Operating liabilities Trade payabels Non current liabilities, provisions Current liabilities, Provisions Retirement benefit obligations and similar obligations Corpration tax Deposits on returnabel packaging Net operating liabilities Net operating assets Net financial assets Equity Common shareholder`s equity Minority interests Shareholder`s total equity Financial liabilities Non curent liabilities, borrowings Current liabilities, borrowings Liabilities accociated with assets held for sale Deffered tax liabilities Non current liabilities, Or liabilities Current liabilities, Or liabilities Total financial liabilities Financial assets Non current assets, securities Current assets, securities Cash and cash equivalents Assets held for sale Total financial assets Net financial obligations

95 Appendix 20: Extended DuPont- model Appendix 21: Exchange rate risk, distribution of exchange rates due to revenues Appendix 22: Interest rate risk, payment debt 95

96 Appendix 23: Common- size analysis ROI Appendix 24: Common- size analysis, PM 96

97 Appendix 25: Common- size analysis AT Appendix 26: Common- size analysis, FLEV 97

98 Appendix 27: Budget, net revenue, AT and NOA Appendix 28: Budget, NOPAT (or operations) Appendix 29: Budget, Future free cash flow Appendix 30: Capital structure 98

99 Appendix 31: Beta estimation Date CAR CAR Index closing return value Index return Dec 1, 384 0, ,69 0, Nov 2, 355,25 0, ,2 0, Oct 1, 357 0, ,16 0,03298 Sep 1, 368,5 0, ,03 0 Aug 3, 373 0, ,03 0, Jul 1, 362,5 0, ,23 0,06824 Jun 2, 340,5 0, ,7 0,00045 May 1, 334 0, ,83 0, Apr 1, 274 0, ,79 0, Mar 2, 230 0, ,36 0,05586 Feb 2, 200 0, ,48 0,08076 Jan 2, 194 0, ,79 0, Dec 1, ,25 0, ,72 0,06005 Nov 3, ,25 0, ,05 0,08081 Oct 1, , ,19 0,20806 Sep 1, , ,15 0,18878 Aug 1, ,5 0, ,11 0, Jul 1, ,5 0, ,43 0,01632 Jun 2, ,5 0, ,3 0,08142 May 2, , ,29 0, β = 1,067 99

100 Apr 1, , ,00257 Mar 3, , ,1 0,00731 Feb 1, , ,24 0, Jan 1, , ,83 0,12934 Dec 3, , ,14 0,01628 Nov 1, , ,76 0,07385 Oct 1, , ,92 0, Sep 3, , ,93 0, Aug 1, , ,3 0,00675 Jul 2, , ,66 0, Jun 1, , ,69 0,0343 May 1, , ,57 0, Apr 2, , ,46 0, Mar 1, , ,59 0, Feb 1, , ,44 0,01612 Jan 1, , ,84 0, Dec 1, , ,48 0, Nov 1, , ,33 0, Oct 2, , ,92 0, Sep 1, ,5 0, ,39 0, Aug 1, ,5 0, ,57 0, Jul 3, , ,29 0,00465 Jun 1, ,5 0, ,01 0,00505 May 1, ,5 0, ,89 0,06192 Apr 3, , ,71 0, Mar 1, , ,12 0, Feb 1, , ,64 0, Jan 2, ,5 0, ,06 0,0114 Dec 1, , ,52 0, Nov 1, 2005 Oct 3, , ,37 0, , ,82 0, ,5 Sep 1, , ,6 0, Aug 1, , ,65 0, Jul 1, , ,31 0, Jun 1, , ,97 0, May 2, , ,18 0,

101 Apr 1, ,5 0, ,25 0,03343 Mar 1, , ,66 0, Feb 1, , ,96 0, Jan 3, ,5 0, ,02 0, Dec 1, , ,66 0, Nov 1, ,5 0, ,88 0, Oct 1, ,5 0, ,18 0,03495 Sep 1, , ,86 0, Aug 2, , ,18 0, Jul 1, , ,31 0,0042 Jun 30, ,43 0 Jun 1, , ,43 0, May 3, , ,14 0,00728 Apr 1, ,5 0, ,99 0,01464 Mar 1, , ,75 0,06432 Feb 2, , ,94 0, Jan 1, , ,83 0, Dec 1, , ,35 0, Nov 3, , ,72 0,06109 Oct 1, ,5 0, ,01 0,07993 Sep 1, , ,19 0,01653 Aug 1, , ,16 0, Jul 1, ,5 0, ,52 0,00177 Jun 2, ,5 0, ,9 0, May 1, , ,63 0, Apr 1, , ,63 0, Mar 3, , ,65 0, Feb 3, ,5 0, ,03 0,04819 Jan 1, ,82 101

102 Appendix 32: WACC Appendix 33: Valuation DCF- model Appendix: 34: Valuation RI 102

103 Appendix 35: Movements cost of debt Appendix 36: Movements cost of equity 103

104 Appendix 37: Movements in WACC and CAPM 104