Space Weather Prediction Research and Services for China Manned Space Mission
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1 Space Weather Prediction Research and Services for China Manned Space Mission Siqing Liu National Space Science Center, CAS Center for Space Science and Applied Research, CAS
2 Outline I. General information of Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) II. Services for China Manned space missions III. Researches on Space Weather
3 I. SEPC Foundation To support China manned space missions, SEPC was established in 1993 in NSSC,CAS; Set up its space environment operational system and forecasting team in Started to issue space environment prediction all over the world in 1998 via internet. 7days/week, 365days/year 3
4 RWC China SEPC is one of the four subcenters of Regional Warning Center China (RWC China, ISES). SAPC (Solar Activity Prediction Center) SEPC (Space Environment Prediction Center) NAO/CAS (National Astronomical Observatories) CSSAR/CAS (Center for Space Science and Applied Research) IDPC (Ionospheric Disturbance Prediction Center ) RPRI (Radio--Wave Propagation Research Institute ) GSPC (Geomagnetic Storm Prediction Center ) GGI/CAS (Geology and Geophysics Institute ) 4
5 I. SEPC Organization SE forecast group SE forecast research group SE model research group SE effects research group SE operation system developing group Space debris group 16 forecasters come from different groups
6 Outline I. General information of Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) II. Services for China Manned space missions III. Researches on Space Weather
7 China Manned Space Engineering Nov.20,Shenzhou Ⅰ June 16 Shenzhou Ⅸ Manual rendezvous and docking Jan. 10 Shenzhou Ⅱ 2002 Mar.25 Shenzhou Ⅲ Dec. 30 Shenzhou Ⅳ Oct.15 Shenzou Ⅴ The first manned spacecraft 2008 Oct.12 Shenzhou Ⅵ Multi-person and multi-day 2011 Sep.29 Tiangong Ⅰ Nov.1 Shenzhou Ⅷ Rendezvous and docking Sep.25 Shenzhou Ⅶ SVA, Space-related scientific tests As a subsystem of space application system in China manned space engineering, SEPC has supplied space weather service in each step of China Manned Space Engineering
8 Missions during Solar Cycles Nov.20, 1999 Shenzhou Ⅰ Jan. 10, 2002 Shenzhou Ⅱ Mar.25, 2002 Shenzhou Ⅲ Dec. 30, 2002 Shenzhou Ⅳ Oct.15, 2003 Shenzhou Ⅴ The first manned spacecraft Oct.12, 2005 Shenzhou Ⅵ Multi-person and multi-day Sep.25, 2008 Shenzhou Ⅶ SVA Space-related scientific tests Sep.29, 2011 Tiangong Ⅰ Nov.1, 2011 Shenzhou Ⅷ Rendezvous and docking June 16, 2012 Shenzhou Ⅸ maned rendezvous and docking Date?-?
9 Service for China manned missions Space environment parameter (long term forecast, ssn and radio flux ) SEE numeric evaluation(single event effects, radiation damage effects) Background Analysis Forecast for launch window (solar activity, geomagnetic activity, space debris, atmospheric environment, radiation environment) Mid-term Forecast Short-term Forecast Monitoring, forecast and warning (solar eruption. solar proton, solar wind, geomagnetic storm, three times one day) Nowcast Forecast Warning Design Period Before Launch In Orbit experiment Monitoring, forecast and warning (solar eruption. solar proton, solar wind, geomagnetic storm, once every day) Nowcast Forecast Warning Long term experiment period Process of Space Weather Forecast Service
10 Leonid Burst Prediction for Shenzhou 1 Nov.18 Nov. 20 In 1999, in order to avoid Leonid burst, Shenzhou-1 postponed its launch time from Nov.18 to Nov. 20 for 48 hours. This is the first time of changing launch plan due to space environment in China. According to the observation, Meteoroid flux had declined to the safe level at the launch time.
11 Successfully avoided the severe space environment event Solar Proton Event.
12 Geomagnetic field quiet period prediction for Shenzhou Ⅶ The geomagnetic Ap index during SZ 7 launch, EVA and companion microsatellite experiment
13 2012 China dragon event Message Alert report Space weather bulletin
14 Space environment detectors on Tiangong Ⅰ Energetic particle radiation detector Proton 2.5~5MeV 5~10MeV 10~18.5MeV 18.5~40MeV 40~80MeV 80~150MeV >150MeV Electron 0.2~0.4MeV 0.4~0.5 MeV 0.5~0.6MeV 0.6~0.8MeV 0.8~1.0MeV 1.0~1.2MeV 1.2~1.5MeV >1.5MeV Orbital atmospheric environment detector Density, composition
15 Solar proton event on March 7,2012 proton electron
16 Outline I. General information of Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) II. Services for China Manned space missions III. Researches on Space Weather
17 Model Research Review in SEPC Sun Sunspot and solar F10.7 long term and 27 day forecast Solar eruptive event forecast study Solar wind A Three Dimensional Asymmetric Magnetopause Model Prediction method study of relativistic electron flux at GEO orbit Regional TEC model Forcast model of ionospheric fof2 Thermospheric density correction model Mid term Ap index forecasting Solar wind velocity during low CME periods model research Magnetopause Ionosphere Thermosphere Geomagnetic field
18 Mid-term Forecast Solar Cycle Forecast
19 Pch index and solar wind speed forecast Processed Data Luo et al, Solar Phys. 2008
20 Three Dimensional Asymmetric Magnetopause Empirical Model (Lin et al. 2010, JGR) In comparison with previous magnetopause empirical models, this model reduces the standard deviation of prediction greatly. Parameterized by solar wind dynamic and magnetic pressures, IMF Bz, and the dipole tilt angle. It s appropriate for the near Earth magnetopause prediction under both normal and extreme solar wind conditions. Can describe the 3D magnetopause, including the asymmetries and the indentations near the cusps.
21 GEO relativistic electron flux forecast model regional TEC Dst index forecast medel
22
23
24 Real time Data
25 Visitors
26 Thanks for your attention!
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