YANG SHI. June Doctorial Candidate in Marketing Cell phone: (852) School of Business and Management Fax: (852)

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1 YANG SHI June 2015 Doctorial Candidate in Marketing Cell phone: (852) School of Business and Management Fax: (852) Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong EDUCATION Ph.D. Candidate in Marketing, HKUST, 2010 present (expected, July 2015) Dissertation Title: Two Essays on Television Advertising Committee Chair: Ying Zhao Committee Members: Baohong Sun, Jun B. Kim, Wenbo Wang, Xiaoquan Zhang BS in Management Information System, Department of Statistics, Xiamen University, China RESEARCH INTERESTS Empirical modeling of consumer decision making, Advertising, Consumer television viewing behavior, Structural models JOB MARKET PAPER Are Advertisers Getting Their Money s Worth? -- Evidence from A Comprehensive Study of TV Viewers Commercial Viewing Behavior In traditional broadcast networks, commercials are usually priced based on the expected audience size of associated TV programs. However, the actual audience size of commercials varies since viewers may zap during commercial breaks. This paper conducts a comprehensive study of TV viewers zapping behavior and examines the impact of the resulting audience loss on advertising cost-effectiveness. Specifically, we model individual viewer s binary viewing decisions in each minute of a commercial break and adopt a latent class approach to account for viewer heterogeneity. Unlike previous research in which data are limited in one way or another, this research employs a unique, large-scale and rich data set (more than 2 million observations across consumer and minute) to include all important variables collectively identified by prior literature and their interactions. Thus, we can obtain more accurate predictions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first empirical study which includes individual viewer s interactions with environmental factors as predictors of zapping, in particular viewers immediate and cumulative involvement levels in associated programs. We find that the zapping propensity is 1 / 6

2 negatively correlated with both immediate and cumulative involvement levels. Moreover, the magnitudes of correlations with cumulative involvement level vary across program genres and viewers in zap-prone segments are more/less sensitive to immediate/cumulative involvement level than those who are less zap-prone. Using actual price paid for each ad, we further examine advertising cost-effectiveness by studying firms best advertising purchase strategies in different scenarios. When advertisers are allowed to choose specific ad positions within a commercial break, one major healthcare product company in HK saves 8.8% amount of money to achieve the same number of ad exposures by accounting for the audience loss during commercial breaks in the advertising purchase strategy, compared with purchasing ad solely based on program audience sizes. WORKING PAPERS 1. Are Advertisers Getting Their Money s Worth? -- Evidence from A Comprehensive Study of TV Viewers Commercial Viewing Behavior, with Ying Zhao and Jun B. Kim (job market paper) 2. Modeling Advertisers Willingness to Pay (WTP) in TV Commercial Slot Selling Auctions, with Ying Zhao (best doctorial consortium paper award (the second place) in 2014 JMS annual conference; under review at Journal of Marketing Research) SELECTED RESEARCH IN PROGRESS 1. Learning from Bidding Experience: A Structural Model, with Ying Zhao (estimation in progress) 2. Modeling Advertisers Budget Allocations with Endogenous Prices, with Ying Zhao (estimation in progress) 3. A Two Stage Model of TV Viewers Strategic Viewing and Zapping Behavior, with Ying Zhao and Jun B. Kim (model under construction) 4. Consumer Learning Present Bias from Purchase and Consumption of Vice Goods, with Shi Wang (data collection in progress) CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS 1. A Two Stage Model of TV Viewers Strategic Viewing and Zapping Behavior, 2014 ISMS Marketing Science Conference, Atlanta, US 2. Modeling Advertisers Willingness to Pay (WTP) in TV Commercial Slot Selling Auctions, 2014 Annual Conference of China Marketing Science, Xiamen, China HONORS AND AWARDS The Best Doctoral Consortium Paper Reward (the second place) in Annual Conference of China Marketing Science, Xiamen, China (2014) ISMS Marketing Science Conference Doctoral Consortium Fellow, Atlanta, US (2014) 2 / 6

3 Postgraduate Studentship, HKUST (2010-present) People s Scholarship, Xiamen University ( ) Liangwen Scholarship for Excellent Students in Statistics, Xiamen University (2008) Finance-Information Scholarship of City Bank (5 People in the entire University), Xiamen University (2007) Team Championship in Domino Competition, Xiamen University (2007) TEACHING Teaching Interests Marketing Management (Scheduled to teach in HKUST: Spring 2016) Marketing Research, Advertising Management Marketing Strategy, Brand Management Teaching Experience Teaching Assistant, Marketing Research (MBA course), HKUST Teaching Assistant, Marketing Management (UG course), HKUST SKILLS Languages: Mandarin (native), English (fluent), Cantonese (fluent) Software: Matlab, SAS, R, SPSS, Stata PROFESSIONAL AFFILIATIONS INFORMS Society for Marketing Science Data Mining Research Center (Xiamen University, China) PRE-DOCTORAL PUBLICATIONS Hsieh, Beng-Yen, and Yang Shi, The Research on Customers with High Risk in Insurance of the Third Realm based on Data Mining, (in Chinese, CSSCI-indexed) Statistics & Information Forum, 24.8 (2009), SELECTED COURSEWORK Seminar in Quantitative Modeling Seminar in Marketing Strategy Models Consumer Decision Processes Behavioral Decision Theory Microeconomic Theory I Microeconomic Theory II Ying Zhao Liang Guo Anirban Mukhopadhyay A. V. Muthukrishnan Yuanchuan Lien Susheng Wang 3 / 6

4 Econometrics Topics in Microeconometrics Topics in Advanced Microeconomic Theory Industrial Organization Statistical Methods for Business and Economics I Doctoral Seminar: Empirical Corporate Finance Peng Wang Songnian Chen Hamid Sabourian Yasutora Watanabe Lancelot James Vidhan K. Goyal REFERENCES Ying Zhao Associate Professor of Marketing Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong Tel: (852) Fax: (852) mkyzhao@ust.hk Jun B. Kim Assistant Professor of Marketing Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong Tel: (852) Fax: (852) junkim@ust.hk Ralf van der LANS Associate Professor of Marketing Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong Tel: (852) Fax: (852) rlans@ust.hk 4 / 6

5 APPENDIX: ABSTRACTS OF SELECTED OTHER RESEARCH WORK Modeling Advertisers Willingness to Pay (WTP) in TV Commercial Slot Selling Auctions (Best doctorial consortium paper award (the second place) in 2014 JMS annual conference; under review at Journal of Marketing Research) This paper uncovers advertisers underlying willingness to pay (WTP) in HK television commercial slot selling auctions which are overlapped discriminatory multi-unit auctions with discrete semi-sealed bids. We specify advertisers WTP as a parametric function of their intrinsic valuations of pure slot attributes, as well as extrinsic valuations which depend on the context of the focal auction and competition from other auctions selling similar commercial slots. The two no-regret bidding principles (first proposed by Haile and Tamer, 2003) are extended to obtain informative boundary conditions for asymptotical identification. Results show that the WTP largely depends on TV rating. Advertisers WTP decreases with tighter budget constraints, more bidding experience, or more available similar slots. The model is useful for the TV station to predict revenue. In order to protect advertisers profits, two ads in the same product category are not allowed to be broadcast in the same commercial break. We find that advertisers WTP increases significantly when the TV station merges a group of smaller categories into one bigger category. Learning from Bidding Experience: A Structural Model (estimation in progress) Prior literature provides preliminary evidence that bidders WTP is influenced by their past bidding experience, yet the underline mechanism remains unknown. In a structural framework, this paper explicitly models how bidders learn from their bidding experience and how they adjust the following bidding strategies (such as bidding frequency and bid amount) accordingly. In the commercial slot selling auctions in HK, a bidder s necessary bid to win (NBW) in a given auction depends on both his or her own valuation and other competitors valuations. Bidders only know their own valuations so that they are uncertain about the NBW. Bidders update their expectations of the distribution of the NBW by Bayes rule in two stages, from their winning or/and losing bids in past auctions that sell similar items, as well as their own losing bids in the focal auction. The proposed structural framework enables us to distinguish the informational role of past winning bids from that of losing bids in bidding strategies. This paper also examines how experienced bidders and inexperienced bidders perceptions of the NBW evolve differently with bidding experience. Modeling Advertisers Budget Allocations with Endogenous Prices (estimation in progress) Understanding how advertisers allocate their budgets across various types of television commercial slots is an interest of the television network. Considering commercials broadcast in the same of day part and program genre to be the same type, this paper investigates advertisers budget allocation decisions across different commercial types with a Multiple Discrete-Continuous 5 / 6

6 Extreme Value (MDCEV) model. We employ a translated, nonlinear, but additive utility function structure (first proposed by Kim, Allenby and Rossi, 2002) to capture the decreasing marginal utility for purchasing one more commercial slot in the same type. Distinguished from the existing literature, the price of each commercial slot in our context is endogenously generated from a bidding process which varies across individuals and bidding occasions. We use the control function approach to solve this endogeneity problem. The model helps recover advertisers various baseline preferences and saturation patterns of different commercial slot types. The results are insightful for the television network s program production and scheduling decisions. Bibliography [1]. Haile, Philip A. and Elie Tamer (2003), Inference with an Incomplete Model of English Auctions, Journal of Political Economy, 111(1), [2]. Kim J, G. M. Allenby, and P. E. Rossi (2007), Product attributes and models of multiple discreteness, Journal of Econometrics, 138, [3]. Pechman, Cornelia and David W. Stewart (1988), Advertising Repetition: A Critical Review of Wearin and Wearout, Current Issues and Research in Advertising, 11(1-2), [4]. Siddarth Sivaramakrishnan and Amitava Chattopadhyay (1998), To Zap or Not to Zap: A Study of the Determinants of Channel Switching during Commercials, Marketing Science, 17(2), / 6