weekly football tip sheet

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1 weekly football tip sheet ISSUE 19 cfp National championship nfl wild card playoffs

2 Football Weekly INDEX Rotation Schedule... 2 Recent NFL Wild Card Playoff Trends... 3 Football Line Moves... 5 Wild Card Playoff Matchups... 6 CFP National Championship Game WELCOME TO THE VEGAS INSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY Thanks for picking up a copy of Issue #19 of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly publication. This is a special issue in many ways, as we wrap up the college football season with our coverage of the National Championship Game between Alabama & Clemson, as well as breakdown all of the Wild Card action in the NFL. The season has gone way too fast, and after this, there will be just three issues remaining in our season coverage. We d be remiss if we didn t thank you once again for being a regular reader. Keep in mind that Vegas Insider isn t just football though, as we cover the full gamut of sports on our web property, We invite you to visit that address anytime 24/7 for the best in sports betting coverage. The bowl season flew by and we hope you enjoyed what we had to offer for the 40 games. This last week was the best one of the bowl season for our handicappers, as they combined to go 16-6 ATS in Best Bets. Jason was particularly hot, going 7-1 ATS to come within a game of Jim for the season lead. Browse to the two-page spread we have put together for the Alabama- Clemson showdown to see who each of those guys likes in the title contest. While there you will also find plenty of other great coverage including stats, previews, trends, and a chart illustrating recent National Championship Game results. Of course, before we even get to the CFP title game on Monday, there is a big weekend of NFL playoff actions, we open our four week dedicated coverage of the NFL postseason by breaking down the four wildcard games on tap for Saturday and Sunday. For each of the games, we are offering a full page of coverage, including stat matchups, written previews, head-to-head histories between the teams, our strength ratings, and of course, picks and Best Bets for every game. With the playoffs upon us, we are also dedicating our feature articles for the rest of the year to analyzing the trends and key handicapping angles from playoffs past. This week s article deals exclusively with the wildcard round, and you might be surprised to find some of the highly distinctive angles we have uncovered. Be sure to not place a single playoff bet this weekend until at least consulting this week s piece. Every one of the four games is affected by something in the article. NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFFS The week 17 games were good for our NFL leader once again, as Doug hit nine out of 10 games overall and was 2-1 on Best Bets. He is now 29 games over-.500 for the season overall, good for 59%. However, he still trails Jim by two games in the Best Bet standings and has just nine games to make that up. We appreciate your continued support of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly, and hope your New Year 2016 is off to a great start! SATURDAY, JANUARY 9, KANSAS CITY -3-3 P: 1:20PM C: 3:20PM E: 4:20PM ESPN 102 HOUSTON PITTSBURGH P: 5:15PM C: 7:15PM E: 8:15PM CBS 106 CINCINNATI SUNDAY, JANUARY 10, SEATTLE P: 10:05AM C: 12:05PM E: 1:05PM NBC 104 MINNESOTA GREEN BAY P: 1:40PM C: 3:40PM E: 4:40PM FOX 108 WASHINGTON 0-1 COLLEGE FOOTBALL NAT'L CHAMPIONSHIP MONDAY, JANUARY 11, 2016 UNIV. OF PHOENIX STADIUM - GLENDALE, AZ 151 ALABAMA P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN 152 CLEMSON SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 1

3 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly 2 RECENT NFL WILD CARD PLAYOFF TRENDS The NFL playoffs have gone through various trend patterns over the years, with some seasons being dominated by underdog and upstart teams, and others being relatively predictable with favorites taking care of business eventually. As such, it is difficult for bettors to navigate the waters from yearto-year. In past decades, predicting the playoffs was usually as easy as looking at a team s body of work. That truly isn t the case anymore, especially on a round-to-round basis, as it seems that how a team is playing lately seems to be a bigger factor than anything else nowadays. That line of thinking would bode well for teams like Seattle and Kansas City, each of whom are in action this coming weekend. However, that said, if any round of the playoffs is truly wild and unpredictable, it is fittingly the Wild Card round. After writing a handful of years ago about how well road teams had been doing in the Wild Card round, wouldn t you know it, the home teams came up with a weekend sweep, including one huge home dog upset. That was followed in 2013 by a 3-1 SU & ATS weekend for the hosts. Then I started theorizing that perhaps home field advantage was returning. As luck would have it, the pendulum swung back the other way in 2014, when three of four road teams came out with victories. That was followed up fittingly by hosts netting a 3-1 record last season. It is clear that the level of unpredictability makes it very tough for football bettors. Although each of the last two Super Bowl games have matched #1 seeds (this year Denver & Carolina), one other trend that has developed in recent years that has been truly significant is the emergence of the eventual champion from wildcard weekend. In fact, half of the league s last 10 champions have started their playoff journey during this weekend, so it sometimes makes more sense to just throw away anything you think you may have learned in the 17 weeks of the regular season. Is the eventual Super Bowl Champion, like Baltimore of 2013, one of the teams playing this weekend? Only time will tell but savvy bettors have picked up big winnings by banking on such thoughts. Many experts right now believe that the Chiefs, Steelers, and Seahawks are all capable of winning a title in With the overbearing perception of unpredictability on our minds, we at the Football Weekly thought we d go back and dig through the database of the recent playoff logs and see if we couldn t uncover any tips of the trade that might help better handicap the wildcard weekend games. We looked at it all, home/road scenarios, dogs/ favorites, lines, stats, you name it. Continue reading to see what we ve found, and then see if you can t apply to the upcoming action. GENERAL WILDCARD PLAYOFF ATS TRENDS The OUTRIGHT winner owns a pointspread record of ATS in the L30 Wildcard Playoff games! Last year produced the only ATS loss in that stretch, as Dallas (-6) failed to cover the number in a controversial win over Detroit. That was rare, so for this weekend, regardless of the pointspread, if you can t see the team you re betting on winning the game, don t do it. Home field advantage meant very little in Wildcard Playoff action prior to the 2012 games, but hosts swept all four games that year SU & ATS to turn the tide, and now have gone 11-5 SU & ATS in the last four seasons. Favorites were 4-0 SU & ATS in the 13 Wildcard Playoffs but underdogs were 4-0 SU & ATS in Last year, all four hosts were favored and went 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS. Are we due for another underdog revival this weekend? Wildcard road favorites have become increasingly common in recent playoff seasons, as there have been 10 in the L7 seasons. Those teams are just 5-5 SU & ATS, with San Francisco last winning at Bay by a field goal in 2013 as a 3-point favorite, and Kansas City blowing a huge lead in losing at Indianapolis that same season. For 2016, the potential exists for ALL FOUR games to have road favorites. Stay tuned to the line moves throughout the week. Home favorites of a TD or more in the wildcard round are a perfect 8-0 SU & ATS since 2005, but including this season, there hasn t been one in any of the last three years. There has been a definitive separation in success levels of the home teams in the Saturday and Sunday games. In the L18 Saturday games, home teams are 13-5 SU & ATS. In that same span, road teams are 9-9 SU & ATS on Sunday s. Sunday road NFC teams have been terrific, going 7-5 SU & ATS in the L12. UNDER the total is also 10-2 in those games. In a break from the usual, both NFC games are on Sunday this year. Wildcard Trends by Seed Number #4 seeds are on a 12-6 SU & ATS run over the L9 Wildcard seasons. Washington and Houston will try and continue that run of success in Of the six #3-#6 seed Wildcard matchups over the last three seasons, UNDER the total is #3 seeds that were an underdog or less than a 3-point favorite have lost six straight games SU & ATS, scoring just 13.7 PPG in the process. Minnesota is an underdog to Seattle, and Cincinnati will also fit this trend in Wildcard Trends regarding Totals The common pattern in the L7 years has shown that when road teams have won, UNDER the total has a record of Home teams scored just 15.7 PPG in those road wins. UNDER the total is on a significant trend pattern going into 2016, with a record of over the L3 seasons. Of the L13 Wild Card games with totals of 44 or higher, UNDER the total is Those with totals less than 44 are 5-2 OVER in the L7. Of the L18 Sunday Wild Card games, 14 have gone UNDER the total. Of the 16 Saturday games, OVER the total is FOLLOW THE LINE MOVES Sharp bettors have been right on sides at a rate of in the L24 wildcard playoff games, good for 78% ATS!!! This is determined to be when the line moves off its opening position towards either team. For instance, if the line opens as home team minus-3, and closes at home team minus-2, it is assumed that sharp bettors are favoring the road THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

4 Football Weekly team. Note that the sharps won last year with Carolina & Detroit, but lost by following Cincinnati. Similarly, but not quite as advantageous, sharp bettors have also done well on totals in wildcard games. Over the L7 wildcard playoff seasons, bettors are 14-8 (63.6%) when moving totals off their opening numbers. Clearly it is worthwhile to follow the line moves in the week leading up to kickoff. STATS GENERATED IN WILDCARD PLAYOFF GAMES Only one home team that has topped the 20-point mark has lost in the L14 years of wildcard playoff action, going 31-1 SU & ATS. That was 2008 Pittsburgh. Only two home teams that scored 20 points or fewer in a wildcard playoff game have won in the L12 years, going 2-21 SU & ATS. Those winners were San Diego, who beat Tennessee 17-6 in 08, and Houston in 2013, a winner over Cincinnati. A year ago, Pittsburgh scored just 17 in a loss to Baltimore. The magic point total for road teams is 17 points. Teams coming up shy of that in the wildcard round were 0-18 SU & ATS since 02. Teams reaching that total were ATS. Teams that gain more first downs are ATS in the L5 wildcard playoff seasons Teams that win the time of possession battle are on a SU & ATS run in the wildcard playoffs. Wildcard playoff teams that gain more yards rushing in their playoff games are 21-7 SU & ATS over the L7 seasons. At the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a wildcard playoff game are on a 19-9 SU & ATS run. Putting up big passing numbers in wildcard playoff games has been a recipe of success the last four wildcard season, since those teams are 12-4 SU & ATS in that time. That is a change from prior years as teams had tended to put up big passing numbers in catch up mode. Alternatively, teams that make the most of their passing opportunities or hit big plays are far more successful in the long term. In fact, teams gaining more yards per pass attempt in a wildcard playoff game are ATS since 04. Teams committing fewer turnovers than their opponent haven t been as successful as you might think in the wildcard playoffs, but are 16-6 SU & ATS over the L8 seasons. TEAMS REGULAR SEASON WON-LOST RECORD TREND If the L7 wildcard playoff seasons have proven anything, it s that regular season records do not matter one iota when it comes to determining who will win. In fact, teams that won more regular season games are just SU & ATS in that span. In four matchups, the teams shared the same won-lost mark. With divisional winner hosting wildcard teams in this round, it is often road teams sporting the better mark. Such is the case in both #4-#5 matchups in Home teams that won fewer games during the season than their wildcard opponent are on an 8-3 SU & ATS surge, including an outright win by Carolina last January. Home teams that won nine games or fewer during the regular season are on a 6-1 SU & ATS run in the wildcard playoffs and own a record of 8-3 SU & ATS since 03. Strangely, at the same time, hosts that won 12 or more games are also 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in that span. Road wildcard teams that won 11 or more games and were forced to play in the wildcard round are just 6-10 SU & ATS since 08. Alternatively, wildcard visitors that won nine games or less in the regular season boast a record of 7-7 SU & ATS since 02. Teams Regular Season Offensive Statistics Trends Teams that scored more points per game during the regular season have won just nine wildcard playoff games in the L6 years, that s 9-15 SU & ATS. Rushing statistics have meant little to nothing when it comes to wildcard playoff success lately, as teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are just SU & ATS since 09. Similarly, those that averaged more yards per rush were just SU & ATS in that span. Wildcard teams with an edge in offensive passing yardage are slightly better at SU & ATS over the L7 seasons in this playoff round. More efficient passing yards per attempt are SU & ATS in that span but have gotten hot of late, going 12-6 SU & ATS in the L18 wildcard games. Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively, and more yards per play in the regular season own a slight edge when it comes to wildcard playoff success, going SU & ATS over the L7 seasons. Offensive yards per point has proven to be as effective of an offensive statistical indicator as any other category, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point offensively are only SU & ATS in the wildcard playoffs dating back to 06. The teams this weekend with those edges are Kansas City, Cincinnati, Minnesota, & Bay. Teams that turned the ball over fewer times in the regular season than their opponent are SU & ATS since 08 in wildcard playoff games. Teams that converted 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season were just SU & ATS in the L7 wildcard playoff seasons. Teams Regular Season Defensive Statistics Trends Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are on a SU & ATS run in wildcard playoff action. So far, this is one of the more definitive statistical angles we have found. Kansas City, Cincinnati, Seattle, and Bay hold the edges in the matchups this weekend. Rushing defense hasn t been nearly as effective of an indicator when it comes to winning wildcard playoff games, as teams that allow fewer rushing yards per game are just SU & ATS since 08. Those that allowed fewer yards per rush were a bit better at SU & ATS. Wildcard teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed are just SU & ATS over the L7 seasons in this playoff round. The 2015 group with edges was 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS, so perhaps this is a trending stat angle. Houston, Cincinnati, Seattle, and Bay will look to maintain that success. Defensive pass efficiency is a curious statistic in that teams who ve held the edge in this category are SU & ATS over the L7 seasons. The interesting part is that 22 of the 28 teams with edges in this stat were the road teams. Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively have been quite successful, going 19-9 SU & ATS in the wildcard round since 08. Those that held an edge in yards allowed per play were a few games worse at SU & ATS. The teams that gave up fewer yards this SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 3

5 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly 4 season for this weekend are Houston, Cincinnati, Seattle, and Bay. Wildcard teams that made opposing offenses work harder, or those at allowed more offensive yards per point, have won their wildcard playoff games at a SU & ATS rate over the L7 seasons. Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are on a 17-8 SU & ATS run since 08 in wildcard playoff games. Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Washington hold edges for Teams that stopped 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season were SU & ATS in the L28 wildcard playoff games. SUMMARY Although we ve found a few decent trends that you might be willing to put to use this weekend, it s obvious that stats are not the end all when it comes to handicapping wildcard playoff games. Certain stats, as you probably made notes on, can prove very valuable, others almost certainly not, no more valuable than the flip of a coin. If blindly following any stat strategy however, err on the defensive side of things, as it seems that the better defensive teams have been the more reliable wildcard wagers of late. For a quick wrap up though, as you get ready for this weekend s games, expect the unexpected. Don t put a whole lot of stock into teams records or home field advantage. Think more along the lines of what have you done for me lately? Ask yourself specific questions Do you see a team capable of making a run all the way to the Super Bowl playing this weekend? If so, that team will almost certainly get the job done here. Have you followed the line moves all week long leading up to kickoff? Which team has the better quarterback/coach nucleus? Did you note the teams with the key statistical edges, particularly in offensive and defensive yards per point? Did you check the Strength Indicators or any other mathematical models that might help project an approximate number of points you can expect from each team? Proper preparations can certainly help separate the betting winners and losers in the playoffs. Date Day Seed# - Home Score Seed# - Road Score OL FL OT FT SU ATS O/U Conf 1/7/06 Saturday #4 - NEW ENGLAND Season #5 - JACKSONLLE HOME HOME UNDER AFC 1/7/06 Saturday #3 - TAMPA BAY 10 #6 - WASHINGTON ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC 1/8/06 Sunday #4 - NY GIANTS 0 #5 - CAROLINA ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC 1/8/06 Sunday #3 - CINCINNATI 17 #6 - PITTSBURGH ROAD ROAD OVER AFC 2006 Season 1/6/07 Saturday #3 - INDIANAPOLIS 23 #6 - KANSAS CITY HOME HOME UNDER AFC 1/6/07 Saturday #4 - SEATTLE 21 #5 - DALLAS HOME Push UNDER NFC 1/7/07 Sunday #4 - NEW ENGLAND 37 #5 - NY JETS HOME HOME OVER AFC 1/7/07 Sunday #3 - PHILADELPHIA 23 #6 - NY GIANTS HOME ROAD UNDER NFC 2007 Season 1/5/08 Saturday #3 - SEATTLE 35 #6 - WASHINGTON HOME HOME OVER NFC 1/5/08 Saturday #4 - PITTSBURGH 29 #5 - JACKSONLLE ROAD HOME OVER AFC 1/6/08 Sunday #3 - SAN DIEGO 17 #6 - TENNESSEE HOME HOME UNDER AFC 1/6/08 Sunday #4 - TAMPA BAY 14 #5 - NY GIANTS ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC 2008 Season 1/3/09 Saturday #4 - SAN DIEGO 23 #5 - INDIANAPOLIS HOME HOME UNDER AFC 1/3/09 Saturday #4 - ARIZONA 30 #5 - ATLANTA HOME HOME OVER NFC 1/4/09 Sunday #3 - MINNESOTA 14 #6 - PHILADELPHIA ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC 1/4/09 Sunday #3 - MIAMI 9 #6 - BALTIMORE ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC 2009 Season 1/9/10 Saturday #3 - DALLAS 34 #6 - PHILADELPHIA HOME HOME OVER NFC 1/9/10 Saturday #4 - CINCINNATI 14 #5 - NY JETS ROAD ROAD OVER AFC 1/10/10 Sunday #4 - ARIZONA 51 #5 - GREEN BAY HOME HOME OVER NFC 1/10/10 Sunday #3 - NEW ENGLAND 14 #6 - BALTIMORE ROAD ROAD OVER AFC 2010 Season 1/8/11 Saturday #4 - SEATTLE 41 #5 - NEW ORLEANS HOME HOME OVER NFC 1/8/11 Saturday #3 - INDIANAPOLIS 16 #6 - NY JETS ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC 1/9/11 Sunday #3 - PHILADELPHIA 16 #6 - GREEN BAY ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC 1/9/11 Sunday #4 - KANSAS CITY 7 #5 - BALTIMORE ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC 2011 Season 1/7/12 Saturday #3 - HOUSTON 31 #6 - CINCINNATI HOME HOME OVER AFC 1/7/12 Saturday #3 - NEW ORLEANS 45 #6 - DETROIT HOME HOME OVER NFC 1/8/12 Sunday #4 - NY GIANTS 24 #5 - ATLANTA HOME HOME UNDER NFC 1/8/12 Sunday #4 - DENVER 29 #5 - PITTSBURGH HOME HOME OVER AFC 2012 Season 1/5/13 Saturday #3 - GREEN BAY 24 #6 - MINNESOTA HOME HOME UNDER NFC 1/5/13 Saturday #3 - HOUSTON 19 #6 - CINCINNATI HOME HOME UNDER AFC 1/6/13 Sunday #4 - BALTIMORE 24 #5 - INDIANAPOLIS HOME HOME UNDER AFC 1/6/13 Sunday #4 - WASHINGTON 14 #5 - SEATTLE ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC 2013 Season 1/4/14 Saturday #4 - INDIANAPOLIS 45 #5 - KANSAS CITY HOME HOME OVER AFC 1/4/14 Saturday #3 - PHILADELPHIA 24 #6 - NEW ORLEANS ROAD ROAD UNDER NFC 1/5/14 Sunday #3 - CINCINNATI 10 #6 - SAN DIEGO ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC 1/5/14 Sunday #4 - GREEN BAY 20 #5 - SAN FRANCISCO ROAD Push UNDER NFC 2014 Season 1/3/2015 Saturday #4 - CAROLINA 27 #5 - ARIZONA HOME HOME OVER NFC 1/3/2015 Saturday #3 - PITTSBURGH 17 #6 - BALTIMORE ROAD ROAD Tie AFC 1/4/2015 Sunday #3 - DALLAS 24 #6 - DETROIT HOME ROAD UNDER NFC 1/4/2015 Sunday #4 - INDIANAPOLIS 26 #5 - CINCINNATI HOME HOME UNDER AFC THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

6 Football Weekly FOOTBALL LINE MOVES It is Wild Card weekend ahead in the NFL and we have the latest line moves on all the action. In addition, we have what has been happening in college football s national championship contest to this point. Once 10 games below.500 with our NFL picks here, we have come back to square record at least. NFL SATURDAY (105) PITTSBURGH AT (106) CINCINNATI 8:15 ET CBS With the uncertainty of who might play quarterback for Cincinnati and Pittsburgh not sure to have running back D Angelo Williams, the total has fallen a point to Reports are Andy Dalton will give it a go in practice, while other reports have coach Marvin Lewis preparing AJ McCarron as starter. With Williams unofficially, day to day, if he cannot go or is ineffective, that means seldom-used Fitzgerald Toussaint is the Steelers main ball carrier. Both totals in the previous battles this season were 49 and they were split. Too many athletes at skill positions and Pitt is on 8-0 OVER playoff run to go below the number. Our Take Play Over CFB MONDAY (151) ALABAMA VS. (152) CLEMSON 8:30 ET ESPN The total has been tumbling from 53.5 to 51 in the college football title game. The Alabama defense is undoubtedly one reason for the total slippage, but bettors have taken a closer look at Clemson s defense from a matchup perspective and found the Tigers have at least the personnel to contain or limit what the Crimson Tide like to do on offense. We do have contrasting angles to view this title tilt, with Clemson 8-1 UNDER after scoring 37 or more points in consecutive games and the Tide 14-3 OVER as a neutral field favorite. Our Take Lean Under RECORDS NFL College (regular season) Bowls 11-8 NFL (103) SEATTLE AT (104) MINNESOTA 1:05 ET NBC Not sure if this or Pitt./Cincy game will be more physical, but it will be close. Seattle s defense is different than the teams that made last two Super Bowl appearances, but at this point no less effective in leading the NFL in fewest points allowed (17.3 PPG). Minnesota learned important lessons about being physical on defense in losses to Bay and the Seahawks and has permitted 16 PPG in the other remaining contests since. This has helped shove the total from 42 to 40.5 and we will back the Vikings UNDER record this season. Our Take Play Under NFL (107) GREEN BAY AT (108) WASHINGTON 4:40 ET FOX Just like most horse bettors, they are less concerned about pedigree and look at recent results. This is what football are doing when surmising the current form of Bay and Washington. It is pretty obvious who is playing better at this moment and the Redskins have been pushed from a Pick to -1. In looking at keys, the Packers have eight turnovers in last three games, Washington has three miscues in their past six. Also, Bay has allowed rushing yards a contest in their last half dozen contests, while the Skins have given up 100 or fewer rushing yards in five of last six encounters. Our Take Washington covers SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 5

7 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly AFC WILD CARD PLAYOFF (101) KANSAS CITY (-3 40) [SU:11-5 ATS:8-8] AT (102) HOUSTON [SU:9-7 ATS:9-7] JANUARY 9, :35 PM on ABC - NRG STADIUM (HOUSTON, TX) Offensive Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive Defensive Statistics Statistics 2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KANSAS CITY [4.7] [6.9] [4.1] [6.1] HOUSTON [3.7] [6.2] [4.1] [6.1] When the coaching staff s of these two AFC teams watch the recent tape on each other, they make check the box it came in, since neither squad looks much like the other back when they prepared for each other in Week 1. Kansas City came into the season expected to have a strong running game and they did not disappoint in finishing sixth at yards per game. It just wasn t supposed to be Charcandrick West as the team s leading rusher. Remember last season when the Chiefs did not have touchdown catch from a wide receiver, Jeremy Maclin took take of that with 8 TD s, which made Alex Smith a better quarterback. But what has really carried Kansas City to 10-game winning streak (7-3 ATS) is defense, which has allowed 12.8 PPG in this period. If the defense plays normal game and Smith does not turn the ball over, Chiefs improve upon 1-10 ATS playoff mark since Houston started the season with Brian Hoyer as their quarterback and ended up with him six changes later. Through it all coach Bill O Brien was the steadying force and receiver DeAndre Hopkins its breakout star. The Texans defense was supposed to carry them, but giving up 44 points to Miami on Oct.25th, that seemed out of the question. But Houston defenders vowed to improve and they held five of last nine opponents without a touchdown. Whatever your thoughts on Texans, know this, the SU winner in their games this season are a perfect 16-0 ATS. GAME TRENDS KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS(L10G) - as favorite of 7 or less points HOUSTON is 1-7 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - Against strong teams outscoring opponents by more than 6.0 points per game(cs) HOUSTON is 8-2 OVER(L10G) - Less than 6 days rest STRENGTH RATINGS BRD Power Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Rtng # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 101 KANSAS CITY HOUSTON HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN Rematch in same locale from Week 1. Kansas City took the season opener as one-point road favorites. This continued ongoing trend in which the visitor is 6-1 ATS and cashed the last three. Otherwise, it might be Houston s turn up as spread winner because of the seven meetings between these club, the Texans have covered all the even numbered affairs. The favorite does hold a small 4-3 ATS edge and on three occasions that has been the Chiefs. The total has exactly matched the team performances with K.C./Over (4 times) and Houston/Under (3). PICKS Jim (53%) (60%)* Jason (51%) (57%)* Doug (59%) (56%)* Power (51%) Effective Strength (53%) Forecaster (49%) Saturday, January 9, (101) KANSAS CITY at (102) HOUSTON (+3) Kansas City* Houston* Kansas City* Houston Kansas City Saturday, January 9, (101) KANSAS CITY at (102) HOUSTON - TOTAL (40) Bettors (49%) Consensus (55%) * indicates Best Bet (BB) Houston Houston Houston OVER UNDER UNDER* OVER OVER OVER UNDER OVER 6 BEST BET Paul says Houston will be a home underdog once again this season to Kansas City, but with much higher stakes. Both these teams had incredible turnarounds, with the Chiefs winning 10 in a row and the Texans seven of nine to finish the season. Both defenses were remarkable and really clapped down on opposing offenses. Despite their similarities, I believe Kansas City is a good bet to cover and advance. The Chiefs biggest edge is at the quarterback position with Alex Smith taking on Brian Hoyer. Though he s been a little off of late, Smith is well known for taking care of the pigskin, which is usually the deciding factor in any game, let alone the playoffs. Hoyer lacks the big game experience and offensive weapons in this matchup. K.C. by 6 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

8 Football Weekly AFC WILD CARD PLAYOFF (105) PITTSBURGH ( ) [SU:10-6 ATS:8-6-2] AT (106) CINCINNATI [SU:12-4 ATS:12-3-1] JANUARY 9, :15 PM on CBS - PAUL BROWN STADIUM (CINCINNATI, OH) Offensive Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive Defensive Statistics Statistics 2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PITTSBURGH [4.4] [7.8] [3.8] [7.0] CINCINNATI [3.9] [7.8] [4.3] [6.2] It seems almost cruel for Cincinnati fans to have this matchup. They lose Andy Dalton, but not for the season, they fall in OT to Denver and then the New York Jets lose setting up a third game with hated Pittsburgh. If all goes well, Dalton should start for the Bengals, but this just makes it more anxiety for Cincinnati backers. The Bengals offense averaged 27.8 PPG when Dalton was available from start to finish of games and was at 21.2 PPG when he was not. However, how will Dalton play, like the confident QB we have seen all year or the one we have witnessed in postseason losses? This places more an onus on the NFL s No.2 scoring defense (17.4 PPG allowed) to shine. With Pittsburgh averaging 2.4 turnovers a game in their last 10, Marvin Lewis s defense has to shine to end seven-game playoff losing streak. Pittsburgh s defense has to prepare for the possibility of two Cincinnati quarterbacks, with Dalton not a certainty and AJ McCarron still a viable option. The Steelers ended up being stout against the run (5th), but vulnerable to the pass (30th). They will employ same strategy as last win, making every effort stopping the Cincy run game and hoping to keep Bengals out of end zone. Ben Roethlisberger is in charge of the most lethal passing offense in the NFL, but if D Angelo Williams is hobbled, that makes Pitt more one dimensional. Steelers are incredible 20-5 and 19-6 ATS in Queen City the past 23 years. GAME TRENDS PITTSBURGH is 6-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against strong defensive teams allowing less than 18.5 PPG(CS) CINCINNATI is 1-9 ATS(L10G) - In January CINCINNATI is 8-2 UNDER(L10G) - All Games STRENGTH RATINGS BRD Power Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Rtng # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 105 PITTSBURGH CINCINNATI HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN Hard to consider a more difficult matchup for Cincinnati. With this the rubber match this season, the Bengals are in periods of 1-4 ATS, 3-9 ATS and 4-15 against the spread versus Pittsburgh since the final day of This battle, like the last 10, will feature a point spread which is under a touchdown, with the favorite holding a modest 5-4 ATS edge. (First game this season was a Pick) The road club has taken three of four and five of eight, including the past two. The Under is 6-3 in the last nine. PICKS Jim (53%) (60%)* Jason (51%) (57%)* Doug (59%) (56%)* Power (51%) Effective Strength (53%) Forecaster (49%) Saturday, January 9, (103) PITTSBURGH at (104) CINCINNATI (+2.5) Bettors (49%) Consensus (55%) * indicates Best Bet (BB) Pittsburgh* Pittsburgh* Cincinnati Cincinnati Cincinnati Cincinnati Pittsburgh Cincinnati Saturday, January 9, (103) PITTSBURGH at (104) CINCINNATI - TOTAL (45.5) OVER OVER OVER OVER UNDER UNDER OVER OVER BEST BET Jim says I can assure you that those playoff teams in the AFC watching this past Sunday s proceedings in Buffalo were not happy when the Jets failed to come from behind to beat the Bills. That left the conference s final postseason spot to Pittsburgh, perhaps the most lethal team in the AFC at this point. I have seen it before, teams with the capability of winning a title making it in by the skin of their teeth and then going on a run. The Steelers are certainly capable of doing that behind their QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Antonio Brown. This is THE best offense in football at this point, and the only reason their numbers aren t better at this point is because Big Ben spent several weeks on the bench with a knee injury. While Pittsburgh is good and looks ready, Cincy has a sketchy playoff history, a quarterback controversy, and surely self-doubt from getting whipped by Pittsburgh a month ago. Pittsburgh moves on. SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 7

9 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly NFC WILD CARD PLAYOFF (103) SEATTLE ( ) [SU:10-6 ATS:8-7-1] AT (104) MINNESOTA [SU:11-5 ATS:13-3] JANUARY 10, :05 PM on NBC - TCF BANK STADIUM (MINNEAPOLIS, MN) Offensive Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive Defensive Statistics Statistics 2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SEATTLE [4.5] [7.8] [3.6] [6.1] MINNESOTA [4.7] [6.4] [4.3] [6.7] Seattle is an even bigger favorite than they were just over a month ago when they visited the Twin Cities. This on the surface looks correct, since they dominated Minnesota that day 38-7 and have closed the season 6-1 SU and ATS. The swagger is back for a team which is looking for a third straight Super Bowl appearance. Seattle s defense finished second in total defense and first in fewest points (17.3) and looks to have solved earlier passing defense issues. On offense it is the Russell Wilson show and he closed the season with 24 passing TDs and only one interception. Marshawn Lynch might be available for squad that is 8-0 ATS having won four of five games. That thrashing by Seattle got the attention of the Minnesota players about raising the level of their intensity and they finished 3-1 and 4-0 ATS to become NFC North champions. After being bludgeoned for 173 yards on the ground by Seahawks, the Vikings defense got more physical and attacked the line of scrimmage and has conceded 89 YPG since. The pass defense is still only average, which places a premium on keeping Wilson in the pocket like St. Louis did two weeks ago. Coach Mike Zimmer has to take the handcuffs off Teddy Bridgewater and allow him to make more plays in the passing game, which also helps Adrian Peterson find running lanes. Minnesota is 13-3 ATS this year and when in the role of underdog or Pick, a solid 6-1 ATS. GAME TRENDS MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS(L10G) - Against high-scoring teams averaging 25 PPG or more(cs) SEATTLE is ATS(L10G) - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 14.3 yards per point(cs) SEATTLE is 9-2 OVER(L2Y) - Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 20 PPG(CS) STRENGTH RATINGS BRD Power Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Rtng # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 103 SEATTLE MINNESOTA HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN Seattle mauled Minnesota 38-7 just a little over a month ago, which is consistent pattern in this contest. With the exception of the 2004 hookup, the average margin of victory in the other eight confrontations has been 22.1 PPG. In five of those blowouts, the Seahawks coming away the victor, including the last three. Seattle s triumph was only the third by a road club in nine tries and the favorite has zipped off four in a row. The Over is on 3-0 and 4-1 move.these conflicts. PICKS Jim (53%) (60%)* Jason (51%) (57%)* Doug (59%) (56%)* Power (51%) Effective Strength (53%) Forecaster (49%) Sunday, January 10, (105) SEATTLE at (106) MINNESOTA (+5.5) Bettors (49%) Consensus (55%) * indicates Best Bet (BB) Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Sunday, January 10, (105) SEATTLE at (106) MINNESOTA - TOTAL (40) UNDER OVER UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER 8 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

10 Football Weekly NFC WILD CARD PLAYOFF (107) GREEN BAY [SU:10-6 ATS:9-7] AT (108) WASHINGTON ( ) [SU:9-7 ATS:9-7] JANUARY 10, :40 PM on FOX - FEDEX FIELD (LANDOVER, MD) Offensive Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive Defensive Statistics Statistics 2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF GREEN BAY [4.2] [6.1] [4.5] [6.6] WASHINGTON [3.7] [7.4] [4.8] [7.3] The fact Washington even won the NFC East is remarkable and they did so convincingly by 4-0 SU and ATS finish. The Redskins enter the postseason with a great deal of confidence, with a hot QB in Kirk Cousins, improving run game, a bevy of perimeter playmakers and playing mistake-free football (three turnovers in last six outings). Most experts agree, Washington has the least amount of overall talent of remaining teams, yet they are 6-2 (5-3 ATS) at home, outscoring opponents by 7.1 PPG. As has become the norm in recent years, the best teams do not always win, often it is the hottest team and the Redskins certainly qualify at that level. Of all the teams playing this weekend, Bay is only one without an identity, which tells you part of the problem. The offense cannot realistically run or throw all that well. Finishing 12th in rushing was helped by two huge games against Chicago and Dallas and the Packers were unimaginable 25th in passing yards. Teams learned to not fear Bay pass catchers who were feeble in creating separation and not deep threats and Aaron Rodgers play slipped to first year levels as starter. The Packers are not a superior defensive team, with its greatest strength limiting points, listed seventh in yards per point. While Bay would appear to be the better club, this is a mismatch when it comes to player confidence. Unless the Packers can build quick substantial lead, hard to imagine them leaving Virginia with a victory. GAME TRENDS GREEN BAY is 8-2 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards per carry(cs) WASHINGTON is 1-6 ATS(L3Y) - Against resilient defenses allowing more than yards per point(cs) WASHINGTON is 7-1 OVER(L5Y) - VS NFC-NORTH STRENGTH RATINGS BRD Power Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Rtng # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 107 GREEN BAY DETROIT HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN These NFC combatants have not seen much of each other in recent years, with this just the third gathering since Two years ago, Bay pushed around Washington as touchdown favorites. The Packers last visit to FedEx Field was 2010, on their way to the Super Bowl and they lost as field goal faves. Going back to 2001, Bay has been favored in each contest and is ATS and this also happens to be the same record as the home club. The Under is 4-2 in these conflicts. PICKS Jim (53%) (60%)* Jason (51%) (57%)* Doug (59%) (56%)* Power (51%) Effective Strength (53%) Forecaster (49%) Sunday, January 10, (107) GREEN BAY at (108) WASHINGTON (-1) Bay Bay* Washington* Bay Bay Bay Bettors (49%) Sunday, January 10, (107) GREEN BAY at (108) WASHINGTON - TOTAL (44.5) Consensus (55%) * indicates Best Bet (BB) Bay UNDER* OVER UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER Bay BEST BET Jason says If you read this week s NFL feature article, you will see many statistical angles favoring Bay in the final wildcard matchup with Washington. The ironic thing is that the majority of these stat angles are due to the Packers defense, which has NOT faltered lately. In fact, even in the blowout loss to Arizona, most of the Cardinals points were due to turnovers or poor field position thanks to bad pass blocking. Bay has played pretty well all season long on the defensive side of the ball, and has a huge edge in that regard on Sunday. At the same time, the offense HAS struggled, but this is still an Aaron Rodgers led team and I have to believe that he will come to play on Sunday. The Packers actually run the ball better too. So, to summarize, the Packers have a better defense, running game, and quarterback, AND are an underdog. That sounds like a recipe for playoff success for Bay. SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 9

11 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME (151) ALABAMA ( ) [SU:13-1 ATS:7-6] VS (152) CLEMSON [SU:14-0 ATS:7-6-1] JANUARY 11, :30 PM on ESPN - UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM (GLENDALE, AZ)[NEUT] Offensive Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive Defensive Statistics Statistics 2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ALABAMA (2) [4.8] [7.3] [2.3] [5.8] CLEMSON (1) [5.0] [8.3] [3.6] [6.0] Here is what you need to know about Alabama. They have a sledgehammer offense, with an offense line that got better as the year went along, leading the way for Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry. Quarterback Jake Coker has gone from game-manager to reliable playmaker, which has made the Crimson Tide a far more dangerous club, especially with the emergence of WR Calvin Ridley. Defensively, as good as Clemson is, Nick Saban has a wrecking crew that has time and again this season taken away almost everything the opposing team wants to do. The front four might be Saban s best-ever and the linebackers clean up everything else. The secondary is better than last year, but hard to say how much since Mississippi loss as they have hardly been tested. The Tide looks unbeatable when they come to play and not making hardly any miscues, they are 9-1 ATS away after five consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers. Clemson will have a chance for these reasons. QB Deshaun Watson is the kind of wild card quarterback Alabama defense s have problems with because of his legs. Watson can run for first downs and set up favorable situations running on early downs. Watson is above average throwing deep down the field and quite accurate under 10 yards hitting slants which move the chains. Running on Tide won t be easy, which is why quick screens or quick outlet passes with a blocker has to be extension of running game. On defense, Clemson has the players to slow Henry up front and the corners to take away what Coker likes to rely on in passing game. This should be fourth quarter game and the Tigers history shows them at ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. GAME TRENDS ALABAMA is ATS(L18G) - VS higher ranked team CLEMSON is 2-8 ATS(L10G) - VS lower ranked team CLEMSON is 17-8 UNDER(L25G) - VS SEC STRENGTH RATINGS BRD Power Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Rtng # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 281 ALABAMA OVER 28, CLEMSON CLM PICKS Jim (56%) (60%)* Jason (56%) (60%)* Doug (49%) (49%)* Power (46%) Effective Strength (46%) Forecaster (46%) Monday, January 11, (151) ALABAMA vs. (152) CLEMSON (+7) Bettors (54%) Consensus (52%) * indicates Best Bet (BB) Clemson* Alabama* Alabama* Clemson Clemson Clemson Clemson Clemson Monday, January 11, (151) ALABAMA vs. (152) CLEMSON - TOTAL (51) OVER OVER UNDER OVER OVER OVER UNDER OVER 10 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

12 Football Weekly BEST BETS Jim says: Playing Michigan State with a lackluster offense and immobile quarterback is one thing, playing a Clemson team with a dynamic offensive weapon like DeShawn Watson and boatloads of motivation is an entirely different animal. For Alabama s sake, I just don t like where this pointspread was placed, as it gives the underdog Tigers more motivation than they ever had before. Clemson may be the best team in the country from the outset, and now they are being told by oddsmakers that they have less than a 30% chance of winning. From a matchup perspective, Alabama has really struggled in containing dual threat quarterbacks, and none are better than Watson. At the same time, the 38-0 score versus Michigan State was misleading, as the Spartans pressed in the second half. Clemson will be in this game, Coker won t be nearly as effective. I tend to only bet underdogs when I think they can win outright. Jason says: Clemson played a nice Orange Bowl game but I have to think that the matchup with Alabama is a completely different animal. Year after year, the Tide are ranked at the top or near the top in the recruiting rankings. That talent always shines on the field thanks to a top notch coaching staff, one that gets plucked every offseason. The result is a truly elite program that transcends the rest of the national landscape. Teams like that don t lose games like these, and Alabama has proven itself as a big game team. Jacob Coker s performance against Michigan State was big-time, and gives Alabama the offensive/defensive balance that concerned me prior to that game. Clemson will be in the game for most of the first half I would guess, but there is a reason this spread is as high as it is. Roll Tide, Doug says: I truly want Clemson to win, but in the end don t think it will happen. Alabama is the full package when it comes to a complete team, not lacking in any area. Clemson is closer than most casual fans realize, having the components to run and pass the ball on the Crimson Tide and is a superior defensive matchup compared to Michigan State. Where I see Alabama winning and covering is decided special teams edge, which will lead to shorter fields and easier scores. My guess is the Tide will take lead into the fourth quarter and at crunch time the defense makes big stop and the offense grinds out late score for victory and national championship. NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME LOGS National Championship Game Log DATE FAVORITE FAV CONF SCORE UNDERDOG DOG CONF SCORE OL FL OT FT SU ATS O/U SU/ATS SU/ATS 1/4/99 FLORIDA ST ACC 16 TENNESSEE SEC DOG DOG UNDER TENNESSEE SEC 1/4/00 FLORIDA ST ACC 46 RGINIA TECH BIG EAST FAV FAV OVER FLORIDA ST ACC 1/3/01 FLORIDA ST ACC 2 OKLAHOMA BIG DOG DOG UNDER OKLAHOMA BIG 12 1/3/02 MIAMI FL BIG EAST 37 NEBRASKA BIG FAV FAV UNDER MIAMI FL BIG EAST 1/3/03 MIAMI FL BIG EAST 24 OHIO ST BIG TEN DOG DOG OVER OHIO ST BIG TEN 1/4/04 OKLAHOMA BIG LSU SEC DOG DOG UNDER LSU SEC 1/4/05 OKLAHOMA BIG USC PAC DOG DOG OVER USC PAC 12 1/4/06 USC PAC TEXAS BIG DOG DOG OVER TEXAS BIG 12 1/8/07 OHIO ST BIG TEN 14 FLORIDA SEC DOG DOG OVER FLORIDA SEC 1/7/08 LSU SEC 38 OHIO ST BIG TEN FAV FAV OVER LSU SEC 1/8/09 FLORIDA SEC 24 OKLAHOMA BIG FAV FAV UNDER FLORIDA SEC 1/7/10 ALABAMA SEC 37 TEXAS BIG FAV FAV OVER ALABAMA SEC 1/10/11 OREGON PAC AUBURN SEC DOG DOG UNDER AUBURN SEC 1/9/12 ALABAMA SEC 21 LSU SEC FAV FAV UNDER ALABAMA SEC 1/7/13 ALABAMA SEC 42 NOTRE DAME INDPNDNT FAV FAV OVER ALABAMA SEC 1/6/14 FLORIDA ST ACC 34 AUBURN SEC FAV DOG UNDER FSU/AUB ACC/SEC 1/12/15 OREGON PAC OHIO ST BIG TEN DOG DOG UNDER OHIO ST BIG TEN Top Trends from Recent National Championship Games * Favorites are 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS in L8 national championship games * Teams failing to score 21 points in national title games are 1-11 SU & ATS * SEC teams are 7-1 SU & 8-0 in national title games since '06 * Teams scoring 31 points in national title games are 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS * '14 Florida State was only ACC team in L14 years of National Title games * Favorites of 5.5-points or more are just 4-7 SU & 3-8 ATS in national title contests since '99 11 SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION