Education Gaps & Surpluses. in the Wisconsin Technical College System

Transcription

1 Education Gaps & Surpluses in the Wisconsin Technical College System Prepared for the Wisconsin Technical College System November 211

2 ABOUT emsi emsi provides economic data, analysis, and consulting services to workforce, education, and economic development professionals throughout the nation. Since 1995, emsi has delivered high-quality, cost-effective services that promote economic growth, institutional change, and intelligent use of human, physical, and financial resources. emsi gathers and harmonizes data from nearly 9 state and federal sources, creating a comprehensive and current database that is unsurpassed for its breadth and detail. Industry, workforce, and demographic data are available at the state, county, and zip levels. By combining dozens of data sources, emsi can fill gaps in individual sources, such as those due to suppressions and missing proprietors, yielding a composite database that exploits the strengths of each source. The emsi database is updated quarterly with the latest information from the Current Employment Statistics database. i

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Wisconsin Technical College System (wtcs) is made up of 16 colleges offering over 3 programs to state residents, ranging from nursing to farm management to welding. This analysis examines the supply of graduates from wtcs in the context of the annual demand for workers in the state and regional economies. While by no means the sole criteria for evaluation, the data in this report will assist wtcs in reviewing the effectiveness of its programs, keeping it the cutting-edge system that has served the state for the past century. Program Surpluses Surpluses exist when the number of graduates produced by local institutions exceeds the number of employees needed in the local economy each year. In many cases it is not advisable to create or expand programs for these occupational groups, as there are already a number of graduates facing a very difficult job market. Most regions considered in this report only have a handful of programs that are putting an oversupply of trained workers into the economy. Key Regional Surpluses Blackhawk Technical College Nursing Assistant Criminal Justice Medical Assistants Chippewa Valley Technical College Criminal Justice Cosmetology Medical Assistants Gateway Technical College Nursing Assistant Licensed Practical Nurse Criminal Justice Madison Area Technical College Nursing Assistant Licensed Practical Nurse Radio and TV Broadcasting Mid-State Technical College Nursing Assistant Criminal Justice Milwaukee Area Technical College Medical Assistants Cosmetology Medical Administrative Support Moraine Park Technical College Nursing Assistant Welding Computer and Information Sciences Nicolet Area Technical College Nursing Assistant Licensed Practical Nurse Registered Nurse Northcentral Technical College Nursing Assistant Licensed Practical Nurse Southwest Wisconsin Technical College Nursing Assistant Cosmetology Western Technical College Nursing Assistant Licensed Practical Nurse Medical & Clinical Technicians Wisconsin Indianhead Technical College Nursing Assistant Licensed Practical Nurse Criminal Justice Key Statewide Surpluses Nursing Assistant Medical Assistant Licensed Practical Nurse Criminal Justice Cosmetology Massage Therapy Marketing ii

4 Program Shortages Shortages, or gaps, appear when the local economy needs more graduates than local institutions are producing. These shortages may present opportunities for colleges to reach out to more students and expand programs. However, it is always important to keep in mind regional differences and issues unique to occupations when ultimately making program decisions. Conclusions Overall, the Wisconsin Technical College System and its individual colleges appear well-aligned with the needs of their economies. On the whole, the colleges in this analysis have more opportunities for growth than areas that might need to be trimmed. Graduate surpluses tend to be in program areas related to the health care industry, while those areas with the largest shortages in graduates tend to be in business services. Key Regional Shortages Blackhawk Technical College Business Administration and Management Accounting Medical Administrative Support Chippewa Valley Technical College Business Administration and Management Accounting Medical Administrative Support Gateway Technical College Business Administration and Management Construction Trades Madison Area Technical College Business Administration and Management Computer and Information Sciences Accounting Mid-State Technical College Construction Trades Milwaukee Area Technical College Early Childhood Education Banking Support Services Business Administration and Management Moraine Park Technical College Business Administration and Management Dental Assisting Nicolet Area Technical College Construction Trades Northcentral Technical College Business Administration and Management Southwest Wisconsin Technical College Farm and Ranch Management Business Administration and Management Construction Trades Western Technical College Farm and Ranch Management Food Service and Management Business Administration and Management Wisconsin Indianhead Technical College Business Administration and Management Construction Trades Accounting Medical & Clinical Technicians Wisconsin Indianhead Technical College Nursing Assistant Licensed Practical Nurse Criminal Justice Key Statewide Shortages Business Administration and Management Construction Trades Finance Farm and Ranch Management Accounting iii

5 CONTENTS i About emsi ii Executive Summary 1 Introduction 1 Methodology 2 Statewide Analysis 8 Blackhawk Technical College 11 Chippewa Valley Technical College 44 Appendix 44 Region Definition 44 Key Assumptions 44 Program-to-Occupation Mapping 45 / Calculation 45 Detailed Regional Demand Data 142 Detailed Regional Supply Data 27 emt Completions by Award Level 27 Detailed Statewide Data by Career Cluster 251 Distribution of Demand for Top 1 Program Areas with Unmet Demand 254 Data Sources 14 Gateway Technical College 17 Madison Area Technical College 21 Mid-State Technical College 24 Milwaukee Area Technical College 28 Moraine Park Technical College 31 Nicolet Area Technical College 33 Northcentral Technical College 35 Southwest Wisconsin Technical College 38 Western Technical College 41 Wisconsin Indianhead Technical College iv

6 INTRODUCTION The Wisconsin Technical College System (wtcs) is made up of 16 colleges across the state that are devoted to vocational, technical, and adult education. Established 1 years ago, the system offers over 3 programs to state residents, ranging from nursing to farm management to welding. The purpose of this educational program gap analysis is to examine the supply of graduates from wtcs in the context of the demand for workers in the state and regional economies. Are there too many accountants being produced in a certain region? Is there a shortage of computer programmers being produced for the local workforce? Answers to these types of questions will inform wtcs as to how it meets the state s economic needs and whether its students will be able to find jobs upon graduation. While by no means the sole criteria for evaluation, the data in this report will assist wtcs in reviewing the effectiveness of its programs, keeping it the cutting-edge system that has served the state for the past century. METHODOLOGY emsi uses several data measures in the production of an educational gap analysis. The two most important metrics are average annual job openings and 29 program completers. These are used to represent occupational demand and workforce supply. By annual openings, we refer to the number of job openings that emsi anticipates will be available to workers in the geographic area within a one-year time period. To measure annual openings, emsi sums the projected numbers of new and replacement jobs in an occupation. New jobs are entirely new positions that will become available due to economic growth, and replacement jobs are positions that become available due to events such as retirement, firings, out-migration, and other events. By 29 completers we refer to the number of individuals within the geographic area who completed programs that train workers to enter the occupational group being analyzed. Since average annual openings and 29 completers are used as representative measurements of supply and demand, the difference between the two metrics represents the anticipated training gap or surplus of workers for each program. The key figure labeled Gap/Surplus is either a deficit or an oversupply of trained workers. A surplus of trained workers shows up as a negative number, indicating that the number of completers produced in the latest academic year is beyond the needs of the regional economy. To reach a greater level of equilibrium that will meet the needs of the regional economy and the regional workforce, the colleges in that region should reduce their annual output of completers by that amount. Naturally, this analysis should not be taken as the only piece of information when deciding whether the academic programs in question are a good fit for the regional economy, but it does fulfill the critical criteria of determining the market demand for such programs. It should be emphasized that in addition to the data found in this report, there are other important factors that should be considered when creating an academic program plan, including grant possibilities, the cost and value of competing regional programs, regional business networks, the availability of teaching personnel, and the intrinsic values of the college and local culture. For these reasons, this analysis should by no means be used as the final step for program evaluation. Further information on methodology can be found in the appendix. 1

7 STATEWIDE ANALYSIS The Wisconsin Technical College System (wtcs) has 47 campuses in 16 college districts throughout Wisconsin. The colleges award two-year associate degrees, one- and two-year technical diplomas and short-term technical diplomas. Approximately 4, state residents enroll in at least one course each year, with the equivalent of 84, full-time students enrolled in career programs. Table 1 lists the occupational program groups offered across the state and their occupation data. The key column in this analysis is Gap or Surplus, which is 29 Graduates and subtracted from. A negative, or red, number indicates a surplus of graduates while a positive number indicates a shortage of graduates. Table 1: Program Areas Offered by wtcs across Wisconsin Educational Field Graduates and Gap or Surplus Nursing Assistant 37,828 2,58 $ ,5 (6,66) emt Paramedic 6,218 2 $ ,38 (1,26) Medical Assistants 17,28 1,686 $ ,537 (91) Licensed Practical Nurse 1, $ ,34 (831) Criminal Justice 1, $ ,42 (714) Cosmetology 15,934 1,946 $ ,32 (673) Massage Therapy 2, $ (298) Marketing 5, $ (26) Electromechanical Technicians 1,13 (42) $ (8) Drafting 5,47 (148) $ (67) Interior Design 1, $ (65) Radio and TV Broadcasting 1, $ (51) Civil Engineering Technicians 1, $ (36) Occupational/ Physical Therapy 3, $ (35) Electric and Power Installation* 2, $ (31) Respiratory Care Therapist 2, $ (15) Forestry $ (12) Nuclear Medical Technologist $ (4) Retailing/Merchandising 1,78 74 $ (3) Legal Support Staff 9, $ Gaming $ Nuclear Technicians $ Cabinetmaking 1,88 (59) $ * For these programs an additional adjustment was made to one of their associated occupations. The occupations in question were common across industries, so an additional weight was applied to account for the percent in the industry related to the educational program. The same adjustment was made in the regional data. 2

8 Educational Field Graduates and Gap or Surplus Dental Assisting 11,194 1,195 $ Cartography/Surveying 1, $ Nutrition/Dietician $ Cardiovascular Technicians $ Mechanical Engineering Tech 1,75 (17) $ Avionics Technology 1,224 (27) $ Flight Training $ Vet Tech 2, $ Funeral Service and Mortuary Science 1,215 7 $ Heating and A/C 6, $ Industrial Technology 3,216 (39) $ Computer Engineering Tech 2,966 (78) $ Substance Abuse Counseling 5, $ Hospitality* 3, $ Translation 1,712 2 $ Biological Technicians 1, $ Chemical Technician 2,753 (159) $ Sign Language 1,712 2 $ Computer/ Electronics Installation 6,78 (291) $ English/Writing 1, $ Life Science/ Environmental Technicians 1, $ Water Quality & Wastewater Treatment Mgmt & Recycling Tech 2, $ Vehicle Maintenance and Repair 24, $ Pharmaceutical Science 6, $ Welding 15,647 (31) $ Industrial Mechanics 14,34 (1) $ Computer Engineering 3, $ Farm Mechanics 5,65 47 $ Medical Radiologic Technology & Sonography 11, $ Heavy Equipment Operation 3, $ Medical & Clinical Technicians 11, $ Machine Shop 2,299 (1,314) $ Computer Graphics and Animation 7, $ Landscaping 6, $ Corrections 8,43 18 $ Music 4, $ Electronic Technicians 17,769 (543) $ Fire Safety 9, $ Quality Control 13,595 (763) $ * For these programs an additional adjustment was made to one of their associated occupations. The occupations in question were common across industries, so an additional weight was applied to account for the percent in the industry related to the educational program. The same adjustment was made in the regional data. 3

9 Educational Field Graduates and Gap or Surplus Computer and Information Sciences 35,242 1,448 $23.9 1, Graphic Communications 2,585 (1,151) $ Medical Administrative Support* 43,829 3,224 $ ,474 1, Optometric Tech 1,82 1,183 $ Parks, Recreation and Leisure Facilities Mgmt 9,573 1,72 $ Human Resources 1, $ Registered Nurse 54,13 5,163 $ ,981 1, Truck & Bus Driver/Commercial Vehicle Operation 25, $ Commercial and Advertising Art 17,674 1,322 $ Early Childhood Education 33,199 1,692 $13.5 1, Accounting 62,26 2,62 $ , Farm and Ranch Management 83,974 (2,582) $9.6 1, Finance 2,788 3,193 $ , Banking Support Services 23, $ Child Care 26,719 2,145 $8.91 1,15 5 1,55 Construction Trades 69,578 3,138 $ , ,44 Food Service and Management 57,975 2,953 $ , ,551 Business Administration and Management 11,381 3,462 $ ,245 1,24 2,221 Real Estate 67,143 12,241 $7.96 3, ,534 Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science 181,384 2,97 $ , ,773 1,348,133 61,28 $ ,118 28,589 14,367 * For these programs an additional adjustment was made to one of their associated occupations. The occupations in question were common across industries, so an additional weight was applied to account for the percent in the industry related to the educational program. The same adjustment was made in the regional data. Statewide Programs with the Largest Surpluses The programs displayed in the figure below are those for which there are too many workers seeking to fulfill the annual occupational demand in the state of Wisconsin. In many cases it is not advisable to create or expand programs for these occupational groups, as there are already a number of graduates facing a very difficult job market. However, it is important to keep in mind regional differences and issues unique to occupations when ultimately making program decisions. By far the largest surplus of graduates in the state is found in the nursing assistant program area. While it is true that medical occupations in general tend to be Program Surpluses (8,) (3,) Nursing Assistant emt Paramedic Medical Assistants Licensed Practical Nurse Criminal Justice Cosmetology Massage Therapy Marketing Electromechanical Technicians Drafting Interior Design Radio and TV Broadcasting 4

10 growing as the healthcare industry expands, there are over 6, more graduates in this program than job openings each year. In other words, there are seven times as many graduates as available positions. This number is somewhat mitigated by the fact that students must be nursing assistants before they can become licensed practical nurses. Consequently, some of these graduates will continue their schooling rather than enter the job market. However, licensed practical nurse programs also produce over 2.5 times the number of graduates needed each year in the workplace. It will be important for colleges to consider the interaction of these programs, how graduates move between school and the workforce, and whether further transition into registered nursing is also taking place. On the surface, emt paramedic programs are producing an estimated 1,38 graduates for only 174 open positions a year. However, 94% of these graduates have a less than one-year certificate. These students could potentially be using their education solely for volunteer purposes or using it to expand their skills for their current position. If those students are not included in the numbers, then the state would actually have a shortage of 95 graduates each year. Colleges should consider these nuances when making program decisions. The next largest surplus is also in the healthcare field. The medical assistant program area produces over 9 extra graduates compared to the needs of the job market. Healthcare occupations are projected to grow, but it appears that student interest is surpassing the needs of this expanding industry. Criminal justice and cosmetology have the next largest surpluses of graduates, at 714 and 673 respectively. Police and sheriff s patrol officers provide the largest occupational demand for criminal justice graduates, with 242 average annual openings, but even this need is more than met by the current supply. Cosmetology also has a key occupation driving demand, with an average of 522 openings for hairstylists a year. However, about twice that number complete hairstyling programs each year. wtcs programs in this field face competition from a number of private beauty schools. Other programs with an estimated surplus of over 5 graduates include massage therapy, marketing, electromechanical technicians, drafting, interior design, and radio and TV broadcasting. Dental assisting does not at first glance appear to have any surplus or gap at the state level, but looking closer, the data show that the two main programs, dental assistant and dental hygienist, are moving in opposing directions. Dental assisting programs have a surplus of 49 graduates, while dental hygienist programs actually have a shortage of 7 graduates compared to the needs in the workforce. Statewide Programs with the Largest Shortages There are 47 program areas offered through wtcs that have shortages of at least 5 students, the top 25 of which are illustrated in the figure below. Some have numbers that signify a potential opportunity for wtcs expansion. Others, however, have certain caveats relating to their data that might change the picture immediately perceived from the numbers and which should be kept in mind when determining program changes. Data are rarely perfect, and awareness of the unique issues in each field are crucial to drawing informed decisions from the numbers. More detailed data are in the Appendix. Business administration and management programs have a shortage of over 2, graduates at the associate degree level. Some of the occupations with the largest demand for these workers are general and operations managers, managers of administrative support workers, and construction and production worker managers. Other programs with large shortages include farm and ranch management, early childhood education, optometric technicians, and graphic communications, among others. Computer and information sciences is a grow- 5

11 Program Shortages 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Corrections Music Electronic Technicians Fire Safety Quality Control Computer and Information Sciences Graphic Communications Medical Administrative Support Optometric Tech Parks, Recreation and Leisure Facilities Mgmt Human Resources Registered Nurse Truck & Bus Driver/Commercial Vehicle Operation Commercial and Advertising Art Early Childhood Education Accounting Farm and Ranch Management Finance Banking Support Services Child Care Construction Trades Food Service and Management Business Administration and Management Real Estate Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science ing field typically with higher-than-average wages. While many four-year institutions also offer degrees in this field, a signifigant part of the job market remains open to associate degree holders. Finance and human resources are other fields that, though dominated by four-year programs, still have some valuable opportunities for associate degree holders. For several program areas, a key occupation is driving most of the occupational demand. In accounting almost half the demand is for bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks. Photographers are a large need in commercial and advertising art. Firefighters comprise 88% of the occupational demand in the fire safety program area, and correctional officers and jailers 75% of the demand in corrections. The largest program gap appears to be in administrative assistant and secretarial science. While the data show a need for an additional 4,773 office workers on top of the almost 5 graduates produced each year, the reality may be that these positions are being filled by workers without formal education. Even though the data were adjusted to reflect this issue, local knowledge will again be important in truly understanding the demand for trained workers in this field. Banking support services, child care, landscaping, and truck and bus driver/commercial vehicle operation are other fields where demand might be met by workers without any postsecondary education. 6

12 The third largest program gap, real estate, also has issues surrounding the data. emsi uses state projections to estimate job growth in occupations, with the most recent data from the state being the projections. In 28 the housing bubble was just starting to collapse, and there were large numbers of people who had entered the real estate field because of the seemingly endless opportunities. This increase in job numbers influences the state projections and consequently the job demand numbers for this analysis. Given that the housing market has yet to recover in most places, these numbers mostly likely do not reflect the current economic situation in most areas and should not be relied upon for program decisions. The food service and management field has several moving pieces within its reported gap of 1,551 graduates. First, part of the demand is driven by occupations requiring only short-term on-the-job training that would not be ideal jobs for graduates of wtcs. Second, most graduates are coming from management-related programs, and compared to the demand for managers in food service the shortage is much smaller, around 55. Third, programs teaching the art of baking have an estimated shortage of 87 graduates annually. There are also several aspects to the shortages of graduates in the construction trades program area. The field includes several short-term on-the-job training occupations that are unlikely to appeal to trained applicants. The largest number of graduates are from carpentry and electrician programs, but the supply still does not meet the demand for these occupations. Other programs, though smaller, also have shortages, adding up to the overall gap in worker supply. Registered nursing shows a shortage of 426 graduates at the associate degree level annually. However, it is likely that in this field bachelor s degree holders are competing for these same jobs. If those graduates are included, the shortage actually becomes a surplus of 1,45. If program adjustments are considered in this field, it is important to contemplate what, if any, are the key differences between the education levels and if they make a difference in the job market, as well as any additional licensing or certification that qualified applicants must possess. The occupations associated with parks, recreation and leisure facilities management may not be the most relevant to wtcs graduates. While the courses of study wtcs offers focus on management, few of the occupations are management level. It may be that these programs address such a specific niche in the market that is difficult to capture in the data. As such, local and institutional knowledge will be key in judging their effectiveness. Music is a program area for which it is difficult to capture the gaps in the labor market. Some musicians are self-taught, while others boast years of formal study. Parts of the job market are informal and less likely to be reported in government data. And many students may study music simply for personal pleasure. Add to this the fact that there were only five graduates at the associate level in 29 in the entire state, suggesting a lack of student interest, and it is difficult to determine the exact nature of the suitability of this program from the data. Local and institutional knowledge will be key to understanding the need for this program. Sign language is a very specific program area that is tied directly to the interpreters and translaters occupation. The problem is that the occupation definition includes interpreters in foreign languages. It is impossible to determine what part of the demand is solely for sign language interpreters, meaning that the demand numbers are likely overstated. Taking that issue into consideration, it is likely that not much of a gap exists in this program area. Overall, the needs of the state economy seem to be reasonably well met. However, there are a number of program areas that could easily expand by several hundred or even several thousand students. The following analyses of the individual colleges and their regional economies will assist in determining where those students are most needed. 7

13 BLACKHAWK TECHNICAL COLLEGE Blackhawk Technical College (btc) serves Green and Rock counties along the southern border of the state, as well as drawing students from the northern area of Illinois. Offering approximately 5 programs across five campuses, btc helps an estimated 14, students a year to further their education. Table 2 details program subject areas and their related occupation data. Table 2: Program Areas at Blackhawk Technical College Educational Field Graduates and Gap or Surplus Nursing Assistant 2, $ (643) Criminal Justice $ (61) Medical Assistants $ (43) emt Paramedic $ (3) Industrial Technology $ (27) Electric and Power Installation 149 (1) $ (23) Vehicle Maintenance and Repair 1, $ (8) Electromechanical Technicians 45 () $ (5) Heating and A/C $ (4) Electronic Technicians 15 $ (3) Mechanical Engineering Tech 96 (5) $ (3) Computer/ Electronics Installation 34 (7) $ (2) Legal Support Staff $ (2) Fire Safety $ (1) Computer and Information Sciences 1, $ (1) Physical Therapy $ Medical Radiologic Technology & Sonography $ Corrections $ Early Childhood Education 1,7 49 $ Marketing $ Computer Graphics and Animation $

14 Educational Field Graduates and Gap or Surplus Licensed Practical Nurse 1, $ Industrial Mechanics 1,28 18 $ Landscaping $ Dental Assisting 1, $ Welding 1,23 (26) $ Medical Administrative Support 2, $ Farm and Ranch Management 4,5 (31) $ Machine Shop 2,492 (198) $ Food Service and Management 2,86 17 $ Accounting 4, $ Registered Nurse 5, $ Business Administration and Management 7, $ Administrative Assistant & Secretarial Science 9, $ ,15 2,138 $ ,682 1,76 (78) Program Surpluses btc has six program areas that the data indicate may be producing a surplus of graduates compared to the needs of the local economy. By far the largest oversupply, just as in the overall state economy, is found in nursing assistants. An unknown portion of these completers will move into the licensed practical nurse program. However, either a surplus will still exist in nursing assistants, or the excess will move into the lpn program to some degree. Medical assistants and emts are other program areas in the medical field that appear to be slightly oversupplying graduates. All 53 emt completers in the blc region, however, gained an award of less than one academic year. This type of certificate is more likely to be used by those who volunteer or are adding another skill to their current job. Consequently, the possibility exists that there could actually be a slight shortage of emt graduates for full-time positions. Discussion with local health professionals may help determine the precise needs of the region. The second largest surplus is in criminal justice. With an average hourly wage of $24.49, the occupations tied to this program area are quite desirable. However, with only an average of 18 positions coming open a year, there are not enough opportunities for the number of graduates btc is producing. A similar issue faces graduates from the industrial technology and electric and power installation programs. Program Surpluses (8) (4) Nursing Assistant Criminal Justice Medical Assistants emt Paramedic Industrial Technology Electric and Power Installation Program Shortages btc has 1 program areas that could potentially produce more graduates to meet the workforce needs of the regional economy. The largest shortage appears to 9

15 be in the administrative assistant and secretarial science program area. However, as previously mentioned, this is a case where data could be deceiving. A significant number of those occupying administrative support positions have no college education. While emsi has considered this issue and adjusted the data according to national numbers on the educational levels commonly found in these occupations, this may not have captured local nuances in the data. Any program changes should be considered in the context of student interest and discussions with local businesspeople regarding the skills and certification they require in their office support. The next largest shortage comes in registered nursing. The region could use an additional 11 nursing graduates each year. This is a high-paying occupation in a growing industry, and given the overflowing interest in other programs at btc in the medical field, it may present an opportunity to redirect students. However, competition from bachelor s degree holders, of which there were 92 in 29, could mostly fill the gap. This potential issue should be kept in mind when making program decisions. Also in the medical field, the data indicate that more graduates could be useful in medical administrative support and dental assisting, though the gap in dental assisting graduates is not overly large. In the business field, the data indicate both business administration and accounting have a shortage of graduates. Business administration, like secretarial science, has different levels of education across occupations and should be considered in the context of local knowledge. In accounting, half the demand for graduates is for bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks. Program Shortages Dental Assisting Welding Medical Administrative Support Farm and Ranch Management Machine Shop Food Service and Management Accounting Registered Nurse Business Administration and Management Administrative Assistant & Secretarial Science 1

16 CHIPPEWA VALLEY TECHNICAL COLLEGE Chippewa Valley Technical College (cvtc) serves the residents of 11 counties in the western part of the state. cvtc offers over 5 programs at five major campuses in the region. Almost 17, full- and part-time students pursue further training and education through the college. Program areas and related occupation data for cvtc are presented in Table 3. Table 3: Program Areas at Chippewa Valley Technical College Educational Field Graduates and Gap or Surplus Criminal Justice $ (73) Cosmetology $ (59) Registered Nurse 2, $ (5) Medical Assistants $ (45) Medical Radiologic Technology & Sonography $ (42) Licensed Practical Nurse $ (37) Marketing $ (34) Computer and Information Sciences $ (32) Vehicle Maintenance and Repair $ (31) Electric and Power Installation 147 (33) $ (3) Massage Therapy* $ (29) Medical & Clinical Technicians $ (21) Heating and A/C $ (17) Electromechanical Technicians 43 (5) $ (16) Dental Assisting $ (16) Hospitality $ (15) Legal Support Staff $ (13) Substance Abuse Counseling 43 7 $ (12) Civil Engineering Technicians 92 1 $ (7) Physical Therapy $ (7) *The Massage Therapy program at cvtc has been discontinued. The program graduated its final students in

17 Educational Field Graduates and Gap or Surplus Life Science/ Environmental Technicians 56 2 $ (4) Respiratory Care Therapist $ (2) Machine Shop $ (2) Landscaping 7 $ (1) emt Paramedic $ () Truck & Bus Driver/Comm. Vehicle Operation 1, $ Industrial Mechanics $ Cartography/Surveying 4 $ Electronic Technicians 17 (9) $ Drafting $ Industrial Technology 246 (6) $ Pharmaceutical Science $ Computer/ Electronics Installation 62 (81) $ Farm and Ranch Management 8,465 (22) $ Construction Trades 1, $ Child Care $ Early Childhood Education 1, $ Welding $ Medical Administrative Support 1, $ Accounting 2, $ Nursing Assistant 2, $ Business Administration and Management 4,1 34 $ Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science 5, $ ,341 2,53 $ ,337 1,388 (51) *The Massage Therapy program at cvtc has been discontinued. The program graduated its final students in 29. Program Surpluses cvtc has 12 program areas that are producing a surplus of over 2 graduates. The largest surplus is found in criminal justice, followed by cosmetology. Both have a rather small annual demand and programs are producing over three to four times the number of graduates as jobs. The next largest surplus is in registered nursing. This is the opposite of the state economy, which has a shortage of registered nurses at the associate degree level. Competition with graduates at the bachelor s degree level may however be an issue in the job market and Program Surpluses (8) (4) Criminal Justice Cosmetology Registered Nurse Medical Assistants Medical Radiologic Technology & Sonography Licensed Practical Nurse Marketing Computer and Information Sciences Vehicle Maintenance and Repair Electric and Power Installation Massage Therapy* Medical & Clinical Technicians 12

18 should be kept in mind. Other surpluses in the health care industry include the medical assistants, medical radiologic technology and sonography, and medical and clinical technician program areas. Marketing, computer and information sciences, and vehicle maintenance and repair all have surpluses of between 2 to 4 graduates. These disparities are not huge, and should be considered in the context of local knowledge of programs and labor market needs. Program Shortages cvtc has eight program areas that have a shortage of over 2 graduates. Three of the largest gaps relate to the business world. Administrative assistant and secretarial science has a large shortage, just as it does at the state level. Part of the apparent unmet demand, however, may be met by untrained workers. Knowledge of what local businesses are looking for in their employee qualifications will be helpful in fully understanding the exact needs of the labor force. Two in-demand occupations in business administration and management are general and operations managers and construction managers. Accounting also has a key occupation driving demand, that of bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks. The next two largest shortages are in the health care industry. Medical administrative support has a shortage of 37 graduates, and nursing assistants have a shortage of 8. The shortage in the nursing assistant program area is an anomaly compared to the rest of the state, which in general has a surplus of graduates in this field. Considering the excess of graduates in other areas of the state, these jobs should be easily filled. This should be kept in consideration when contemplating program changes. The welding, early childhood education, and child care program areas each have shortages of 25 to 3 graduates. Program Shortages Child Care Early Childhood Education Welding Medical Administrative Support Accounting Nursing Assistant Business Administration and Management Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science 13

19 GATEWAY TECHNICAL COLLEGE Gateway Technical College (gtc) serves residents in Kenosha, Racine, and Elkhorn counties in the southeast corner of Wisconsin. Offering over 65 programs at three major campuses, five learning centers, and online, gtc educates 29, people a year, or approximately 5, full-time equivalent students. Program areas and related occupation data for gtc are presented in Table 4. Table 4: Program Areas at Gateway Technical College Educational Field Graduates and Gap or Surplus Nursing Assistant 2, $ (613) emt Paramedic $ (145) Licensed Practical Nurse $ (113) Criminal Justice $ (4) Accounting $ (4) Marketing $ (3) Substance Abuse Counseling $ (24) Computer and Information Sciences $ (21) Electronic Technicians $ (18) Civil Engineering Technicians 48 (1) $ (13) Medical Administrative Support $ (11) Landscaping 28 5 $ (8) Drafting 166 (3) $ (7) Radio and Television Broadcasting 23 1 $ (7) Interior Design $ (6) Medical & Clinical Technicians $ (4) Physical Therapy 19 2 $ (2) Medical Radiologic Technology & Sonography $ (2) Commercial and Advertising Art $ (1) Industrial Technology 99 1 $

20 Educational Field Graduates and Gap or Surplus Biological Technicians 66 5 $ Electromechanical Technicians 94 (6) $ Heating and A/C 369 (3) $ English/Writing 16 1 $ Medical Assistants $ Flight Training 56 9 $ Sign Language $ Hospitality $ Computer/ Electronics Installation 29 (1) $ Dental Assisting $ Quality Control 892 (33) $ Industrial Mechanics $ Vehicle Maintenance and Repair 1,49 27 $ Fire Safety $ Cosmetology 1, $ Machine Shop 1,369 (18) $ Food Service and Management 1,834 8 $ Child Care $ Registered Nurse 2, $ Early Childhood Education 2, $ Construction Trades 3, $ Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science 6,62 11 $ Business Administration 6, $ ,72 2,323 $ ,382 1,689 (37) Program Surpluses Program Surpluses gtc has eight program areas producing an excess of at least 2 graduates. The largest surplus, mirroring the large surplus at the state level, is in the nursing assistant program area. lpns are also overproduced, and decisionmakers should consider the links between these two programs and how they relate to the job market. The second largest surplus is also in the health care industry, an estimated excess of 145 emt paramedics each year. However, the gap is practically identical to the number of completers who earned an award of less than one academic year, a certificate most likely used for volunteer efforts. This could indicate that the demand (6) (3) Nursing Assistant emt Paramedic Licensed Practical Nurse Criminal Justice Accounting Marketing Substance Abuse Counseling Computer and Information Sciences and supply of full-time emt professionals is reasonably well-balanced. 15

21 The next five program areas have surpluses between 2 to 4 graduates. Most of the shortages fall in this range as well. These numbers are rather straightforward and without any particular caveats, but as always should be considered through the lens of local labor market and institutional knowledge. Program Shortages gtc has 12 program areas with a shortage of 2 or more graduates compared to the needs of the local economy. The largest is in business administration and management, followed by another program area key to the business world, administrative assistant and secretarial science. The demand for secretaries and other office support may in some cases be met by untrained workers, and any program changes should be made in the context of a thorough understanding of the needs of the local business community. A similar issue may arise with early childhood education. Associate degree-holding registered nurses in this region have no potential competition from bachelor s degree-holders, as there were no completers at that education level. As such, it may be beneficial to encourage some nursing assistant or lpn students toward this program area. The largest sources of occupational demand for graduates of the construction trades program area are electricians, carpenters, and construction supervisors. There were no regional graduates in carpentry in 29, and only three electricians completed courses of study. The possibility exists that training for these occupations is taking place within businesses in their own apprenticeship programs. It is a question that would most likely be worth further investigation. Program Shortages Industrial Mechanics Vehicle Maintenance and Repair Fire Safety Cosmetology Machine Shop Food Service and Management Child Care Registered Nurse Early Childhood Education Construction Trades Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science Business Administration 16

22 MADISON AREA TECHNICAL COLLEGE Madison Area Technical College (Madison College) serves residents in Madison with eight locations, as well as those in the 12 surrounding counties with four regional campuses. Offering over 14 program options to students, Madison College has a long history of providing technical training to workers in the state capital. Program areas and related occupation data for Madison College are presented in Table 5. Table 5: Program Areas at Madison Area Technical College Educational Field Graduates and Gap or Surplus Nursing Assistant 4, $ ,11 (99) emt Paramedic 753 $ (271) Licensed Practical Nurse 1, $ (15) Radio and TV Broadcasting $ (84) Criminal Justice 1, $ (73) Cosmetology 1, $ (72) Medical Administrative Support 3, $ (72) Marketing $ (33) Vet Tech $ (33) Electronic Technicians 48 6 $ (25) Landscaping 13 2 $ (22) Vehicle Maintenance and Repair 1,763 1 $ (16) Interior Design $ (1) Respiratory Care Therapist $ (9) Occupational Therapy $ (8) Legal Support Staff $ (7) Civil Engineering Technicians $ (5) Massage Therapy $ (4) Retailing/Merchandising 22 7 $ (3) Fire Safety 1, $ (2) Electromechanical Technicians 112 $ (1) 17

23 Educational Field Graduates and Gap or Surplus Nutrition/Dietician 77 3 $ Farm Mechanics $ Mechanical Engineering Tech $ Hospitality $ Medical Assistants 1, $ Medical & Clinical Technicians 1, $ Industrial Mechanics 1, $ Machine Shop 975 (3) $ Biological Technicians $ Dental Assisting 1, $ Medical Radiologic Technology & Sonography 1, $ Optometric Tech 1, $ Graphic Communications 2,14 (121) $ Farm and Ranch Management 8,59 (329) $ Child Care 1, $ Computer Graphics and Animation 1, $ Welding 1,551 4 $ Commercial and Advertising Art 3, $ Registered Nurse 7, $ Parks, Recreation & Leisure Facilities Management 1, $ Finance 2, $ Construction Trades 5, $ Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science 7, $ Accounting 9, $ Computer and Information Sciences 6, $ Food Service and Management 6, $ Business Administration and Management 15, $ Real Estate 11,361 2,7 $ ,654 8,789 $ ,27 3, Program Surpluses Madison College has 11 program areas that have a regional surplus of 2 graduates or more. Like the state as a whole, the Madison College region has a surfeit of graduates in the nursing assistant program area, with an estimated 1,11 graduates competing for 12 openings each year. The production of related lpn graduates is nowhere near this, yet is still almost three times the number of jobs available. While it could be argued that Madison, being the state capital, might draw students from around the state who would then return posttraining to their hometowns, graduates still would have difficulty finding jobs given that there is a persistent over-supply in these programs across regions. emt paramedics is another health care occupation that appears to have a large surplus of graduates. However, all completers in this region earned only the less than one year certificate, so it seems likely that a large surplus does not truly exist in this area. 18

24 Program Surpluses (1,) (5) Nursing Assistant emt Paramedic Licensed Practical Nurse Radio and TV Broadcasting Criminal Justice Cosmetology Medical Administrative Support Marketing Vet Tech Electronic Technicians Landscaping The surplus of graduates in cosmetology programs is driven mainly by an excess of students in the esthetician and skin care specialist program. This course of study produced 45 graduates in 29 for less than 1 annual openings. Other programs have some superfluous numbers as well, adding up to the overall surplus. In this region, the data may not be clearly capturing the picture when it comes to the landscaping program area. The course, d under applied horticulture, is tied only to grounds maintenance workers, all other, an occupation in which 75% of jobholders have no higher education. Such a low-skill occupation seems mismatched with a program that trains for management of plant-related businesses. In this case, the data do little to illuminate program area decisions. Program Shortages There are 21 program areas offered by Madison College that have a shortage of at least 2 graduates compared Program Shortages Machine Shop Biological Technicians Dental Assisting Medical Radiologic Technology & Sonography Optometric Tech Graphic Communications Farm and Ranch Management Child Care Computer Graphics and Animation Welding Commercial and Advertising Art Registered Nurse Parks, Recreation & Leisure Facilities Management Finance Construction Trades Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science Accounting Computer and Information Sciences Food Service and Management Business Administration and Management Real Estate 19

25 to the occupational needs of the region. The largest gap, in real estate, is most likely overstated for the reasons outlined in the statewide analysis. Local knowledge will most likely be more useful in informing programs decisions in this area. Several of the top shortages are found in business services. There is a broad demand at the associate degree level for business administration and management graduates. In accounting, almost half the demand comes from the need for bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks. Finance has no graduates in the region at the associate degree level. This may be a reflection of demand being overstated. Many of the jobs in this field on average require bachelor s degrees, and considering the urban location, it may be that employers have such a large pool of four-year candidates to draw from that associate degree holders would have a much more difficult time finding employment than in other regions. Graduates of administrative assistant and secretarial science programs, on the other hand, may be competing against less-trained candidates, which would also lead to overstating demand for these programs. All in all, local understanding will be important to inform the data. Several other interesting points stand out in the data, which should be kept in mind when considering the numbers and relevant program changes. The shortage in the commercial and advertising art program area is driven by photography, while the construction trades program area needs more carpenters. The demand for graduates in the hospitality and food service and management program areas is possibly overstated, as about half of the demand comes from jobs requiring only short-term on-the-job training. And lastly, there is a small shortage of registered nurses at the associate degree level, but competition with bachelor s degree holders could potentially more than fill this gap. 2