Impacts and Adaptations The Case of the Drought

Transcription

1 Impacts and Adaptations The Case of the Drought V. Wittrock 1 and E. Wheaton 2 1 Saskatchewan Research Council 2 Saskatchewan Research Council and University of Saskatchewan Presentation at the Water Management Workshop in Alberta s Special Area #2 February 26, 2007 Hanna, Alberta SRC Publication No D07 smart science solutions

2 Outline Where this information is coming from Climatology of the Drought Impacts of the Drought Adaptation Strategies

3 First National Drought Assessment for Canada Near record to record drought over southern Canada and North America + Climatological aspects onset, persistence, extent, atmospheric circulation patterns Biological and physical impacts, socioeconomic impacts, adaptation options, recommendations Lead Authors: Wheaton, Kulshreshtha, Wittrock, Bonsal, Chipanshi, Grant, Koshida Steering Committee led by AAFC; thorough review process

4 Canadian Agricultural Adaptations to 21 st Century Droughts: Preparing for Climate Change? Or Agricultural Drought Adaptations (ADA) Home Project Summary Project Team Advisory Group Project Components Project Benefits About the Droughts Drought Impacts Project Deliverables (Presentations and Publications) Related Links Funding: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program, Government of Canada; and In-Kind Contributions Research team and funding: Saskatchewan Research Council; Environment Canada; University of Lethbridge Olds College Advisory Committee guidance

5 Institutional Adaptation to Climate Change Canada-Chile Case Study on Adaptation

6 (PFRA 2001 website)

7 Drought persistence Spring Summer

8 Drought Severity & Trends (Annual Palmer Drought Severity Index) Record summer droughts occurred in British Columbia, Alberta & Saskatchewan ( year record) for Record agricultural drought year (September to August) occurred in British Columbia and Alberta for ( year record) Large decadal variations with rapid switches from dry to wet

9 Drought Spatial Patterns Summer (June, July, August) PDSI isoline Extent of Data and droughts appear to be the most extensive of this set of major droughts Preferred area for droughts in Canada is the southern prairie provinces Northward extension of these recent droughts appears unusual was a major multi-year drought, unlike 1961, for example

10 Surface Water Impacts Dugouts are often essential adaptations to water scarcity on Prairie farms, esp. for livestock and household use Dugouts were drying out by the fall of 2000, and this trend became worse in 2001and continued in the Hanna area into

11 Surface Water Impacts Surface Water Impacts Red Deer River at Drumheller ( ) (05CE001) R 2 = 0.00 Mean Annual Stream Flow (m3/s) South Saskatchewan River at Medicine Hat ( ; 05AJ001) R 2 = 0.01 Alberta and Saskatchewan streams had well below average (or no) flows in Red Deer River at Drumheller low flows 2000 to SSR at Medicine at low flows 2000 and 2001 extreme precipitation event June Mean Annual Stream Flow (m3/s)

12 GLOBAL PRECIPITATION ANOMALY Global Precipitation Climatology Centre The impact of the June storm Percentage of normal (100% is normal)

13 More Impacts of the 2001 and Droughts Person Previously reliable and good quality water supplies (surface and groundwater) were severely affected, and some failed The number of prairie sloughs was the lowest on record in May

14 Census Agricultural Regions

15 Crop Yields Spring Wheat in Census Agricultural Region 2, Alberta Spring Wheat in Census Agricultural Region 4A, Alberta Crop Production (bu/ac) Barley in Census Agricultural Region 4A, Alberta Crop Production (bu/ac) Crop Production (bu/ac) Barley in Census Agricultural Region 2, Alberta Crop Production (bu/ac)

16 Insects Grasshoppers numbers were projected to be severe to very severe during the drought years

17 Some Economic Impacts of the 2001 and Droughts Total Canadian agricultural production loss was ~$3.6 billion for both years Gross Domestic Product fell ~$5.8 billion total for both years Employment losses > 41,000 for both years Worst year was and the hardest hit provinces were Alberta and Saskatchewan (Wheaton et al. 2005)

18 Crop insurance 2001/ and /2003 Crop Year Crop insurance payments exceeded $2 billion for the /2003 crop year across all of Canada (500% above the 10-year average). Highest payments were made in Saskatchewan ($1.1 billion), Alberta ($790 million), and Ontario (more than $100 million). Payments in 100s millions $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 $ yr avg $1, $2, (Wheaton et al. 2005) Time period

19 Reduction in Gross Domestic Product & Loss** in Employment: 2001 & Droughts in Canada Region Loss ** of G.D.P. (000$) 2001 Loss ** in Employment (No. of Workers) 2001 British Columbia $0 $42, Prairies $1,434,619 $3,108,331 10,083 17,803 Central Canada $412,886 $228,132 4,038 1,949 Maritimes $115,122 $21,750 1, Trade-Related Impacts* $164,031 $251,840 2,474 3,578 Total Canada $2,126,658 $3,653,008 17,637 23,777 (Wheaton et al. 2005) Economics Questions: Suren Kulshreshtha suren.kulshreshtha@usask.ca

20 Examples of Adaptation Strategies Water Supply new wells established, temporary water pipelines installed, new dugouts established, implemented conservation measures

21 Examples of Adaptation Strategies Photo source: AAFC-PFRA Livestock brought feed in, moved cattle out, sold more cattle than normal, sold cattle earlier in the year than normal, allowed cattle to graze on low production crops

22 Examples of Adaptation Strategies Crops seeded more drought tolerant crops, used crops as greenfeed, bought more crop insurance, decreased the amount of inputs. Photo: V. Wittrock 1996

23 Examples of Adaptation Strategies Photo Source: PFRA-AAFC Government Programs Crop Insurance, Water Supply Expansion Program, Farm Stress Line, etc Community Support Ducks Unlimited Canada, Hay West, Say Hay concert, etc.

24 Photo Source: V. Wittrock, S. Wittrock 2004 Questions?