An Overview of Sandia National Laboratories and Some Key Complex Systems National Security Challenges

Transcription

1 An Overview of Sandia National Laboratories and Some Key Complex Systems National Security Challenges Richard O. Griffith, Ph.D. Senior Manager Complex Systems for National Security Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL SAND P

2 Sandia s History 2

3 Sandia s Governance Structure Sandia Corporation AT&T: Martin Marietta: Lockheed Martin: 1995 present Existing contract expires Sept. 9, 2012 Government owned, contractor operated Federally funded research and development center 3

4 Sandia s Sites Albuquerque, New Mexico Livermore, California Tonopah, Nevada Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, Carlsbad, New Mexico Pantex, Texas 4

5 People and Budget (As of October 11, 2011) On-site workforce: 11,876 Regular employees: 9,122 Gross payroll: ~$943 million FY11 Operating Revenue $2.4 billion 11% 10% 50% Technical staff (4,557) by discipline 29% 32% (Operating Budget) Nuclear Weapons Defense Systems & Assessments Energy, Climate & Infrastructure Security International, Homeland, and Nuclear Security Computing 17% Other fields 12% Other science 6% Physics 6% Chemistry 5% Math 2% Electrical engineering 20% Mechanical engineering 17% Other engineering 15% 5

6 The Mission Has Evolved for Decades 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Production engineering & manufacturing engineering Development engineering Multiprogram laboratory Research, development and production Post-Cold War transition Broader national security challenges 6

7 Addressing Our Evolving National Security Environment is of the Greatest Importance Traditional strategic nuclear threats Threats from other nation states Threats from non nation states Threats of tech surprise Other threats: natural disasters, climate change, energy supply 7

8 Nuclear Weapons Integrated, engineered warhead systems Arming, fuzing, and firing systems Safety systems Gas transfer systems Neutron generators 8

9 Defense Systems and Assessments Program Areas Information Operations Integrated Military Systems Proliferation Assessment Remote Sensing & Verification Space Mission Surveillance & Reconnaissance Areas of Expertise Nuclear Detonation Detection System Nonproliferation Cyber Security Synthetic Aperture Radar Space Situational Awareness Data Processing and Exploitation 9

10 Energy, Climate, and Infrastructure Security Program Areas Infrastructure Security Energy Security Climate Security Enabling Capabilities Areas of Expertise Modeling & Analysis, Cyber, Electricity Distribution, and Energy Assurance Renewables, Energy Efficiency, Energy for Transportation, and Nuclear Energy Systems Sensing & Monitoring, Carbon Capture, Sequestration, Modeling and Analysis, and Water Discovery Science & Engineering, Systems Analysis, and Regulatory & Policy 10

11 International, Homeland, and Nuclear Security Program Areas Critical Asset Protection Global Security Homeland Defense and Force Protection Homeland Security Areas of Expertise Countering Bioterrorism Nuclear, Radiological, and Chemical Risk Reduction Nonproliferation and Arms Control Physical Security Emergency Response Systems Analysis and Engineering Border Security Aviation and Airworthiness Security 11

12 Research Disciplines Drive Capabilities High Performance Computing Nanotechnologies & Microsystems Extreme Environments Computer Science Materials Engineering Sciences Micro Electronics Bioscience Pulsed Power Research Disciplines 12

13 What is a Complex System? Source: Engi, Dennis. Complex Systems: A Panel Discussion, One Sandian s Perspective, Jan 2007.

14 What is a Complex System? Is composed of interacting elements that as a whole exhibit one or more properties (behavior among possible properties) not obvious from properties of individual parts. Key Attributes Multiple interacting phenomena Non-linear dynamics and effects Elements with memory Large network of elements or nested complexity Examples Living cells, human brain Human-operated automobile in traffic Ecosystems, power grid Bounded Closed Loop Solutions Functions Many interconnected components Non-linear Elements/ Components

15 National Security Challenge: Pandemics In October 2005, Public Health officials worldwide were afraid that the H5NI avian flu virus would jump species and become a pandemic like the one in 1918 that killed 50M people worldwide. Pandemics occur and have devastating national and international consequences Pandemics may be natural or man-made No vaccine, no antiviral What policy decisions and actions would mitigate the threat to the U.S.? Chickens being burned in Hanoi

16 Definition of the Complex Adaptive System of Systems (CASoS) System: Global transmission network composed of person to person interactions beginning from the point of origin (within coughing distance, touching each other or surfaces ) System of Systems: People belong to and interact within many groups: Households, Schools, Workplaces, Transport (local to regional to global), etc., and health care systems, corporations and governments place controls on interactions at larger scales Complex: many, many similar components (Billions of people on planet) and groups Adaptive: each culture has evolved different social interaction processes, each will react differently and adapt to the progress of the disease, this in turn causes the change in the pathway and even the genetic make-up of the virus HUGE UNCERTAINTIES

17 Example Teen Household T1 T1 Key Research Challenges: Application of Networked Agent Method to Influenza T1 Social Networks for Teen 1 Extended Family or Neighborhood T1 T1 Teen Random + Disease manifestation (node and link behavior) Latent Mean duration 1.25 days Transition Probabilities ps = 0.5 ph = 0.5 pm = 0 ps (1-pS) Infectious presymptomatic Mean duration 0.5 days I R 0.25 (1-pH) ph Infectious asymptomatic Mean duration 2 days I R 0.25 Infectious symptomatic Circulate Mean duration 1.5 days I R 1.0 for first 0.5 day, then reduced to for final day Infectious symptomatic Stay home Mean duration 1.5 days I R 1.0 for first 0.5 day, then reduced to for final day pm (1-pM) pm (1-pM) Dead Immune Everyone Random School classes 6 per teen Stylized Social Network (nodes, links, frequency of interaction) Research Challenges - social network characterization - disease behavior - transmission physics - propagation of influence - effects of network reconfiguration - effects of policy changes - quantification of uncertainties

18 National Security Challenge: Health Care System The Veteran s Health Administration requires a huge, and growing, investment of national resources The nation must balance ethical continuity of care with national imperatives of cost containment and care for the wounded warrior Goal: Enable a massive government agency to better anticipate, manage and respond to future emergent issues Fundamental advances in complexity-based modeling of individuals, organizations and health dynamics have many other potential applications. 18

19 Veterans Health Administration Threat Modeling Complexity: The nation s largest integrated healthcare system, the VA also serves a highly mobile population with a higher than average incidence of health problems. System performance and resilience depend on non-linear disease dynamics, supply chain dynamics, and individual behaviors, decisions and interrelationships. Complex Adaptive System modeling enables rational decision making to balance mission, costs, and lives saved. 19

20 Veterans Health Administration Threat Modeling Research Challenges: New modeling approaches are needed to address the interface of individual health and behavioral dynamics with collective organizational performance and resilience. Models to define facility and community interactions with disease outbreaks and processes are needed. Potential major effects of social interactions among patients, healthcare workers, and community members require interdisciplinary investigation and new models of computational verification and validation. 20

21 National Security Challenge: Interdependent Infrastructures Natural Disasters Terrorism

22 Interdependent Infrastructures: A Complex System Perspective Air Transportation Complex Systems Natural Hazards Terrorist Threat Physical Structures US Highway System Electrical Power Distribution Economics

23 A Complex System Perspective Use Appropriate Modeling Approach for Each System Complex Systems Air Transportation Natural Hazards Terrorist Threat Physical Structures US Highway System Annual probability of exceedence, P(Y y) Reduced earthquake set hazard f i,r True hazard 1/r e i,r (a) ln(annual probability of earthquake of magnitude M m) Reduced earthquake set recurrence relationship for source Su g um True recurrence relationship for source S u (b) Y i,r Ground shaking, y (e.g., PGA) m Magnitude, M Electrical Power Distribution Economics

24 A Complex System Perspective Illustrative Example Uncertainty Analysis Earthquake Modeling Natural Hazards Optimization Discrete-Event Simulation Air Transportation Terrorist Threat Complex Systems Graph Theory Network Analysis Uncertainty Analysis Physical Structures Structural Dynamics Fragility Analysis US Highway System Dynamic Traffic Assignment Simulation Power Models Graph Theory Network Models Electrical Power Distribution Economics Macro Economics Input/Output Models Nash Equilibrium

25 National Security Challenge: Electric Power Grid The Drive for Clean Energy, Increased Efficiency and Security is Forcing the Grid to Evolve Unlimited use of stochastic renewable sources through dynamic power flow control and optimized energy storage. Reduction of excess centralized generation capacity reducing our dependence on fossil fuel based generation and associated fuel transportation logistics. Self-healing, self-adapting, self-organizing decentralized architectures. This could greatly improve the security of critical infrastructure. Generation Sources or other Microgrids Transmission Substation Storage Load Load Renewable energy Storage 2 Renewable energy Secure Scalable Microgrid

26 Grid Evolution will be Significant Today's Grid Transmission Power Distribution Substation Loads Generation Generation Sources or other Microgrids Power Substation Storage Loads Load Renewable energy Storage Transmission 26 Generation

27 Traditional vs Renewable Generation 30 Forecasting is used to set generation Available resource forecast Power (GW) Actual load Day ahead demand forecast California ISO Time of day (hours) State Estimator Power Prediction Feedback loop controls minor frequency variations and output voltage and power Gen AGC Fixed Infrastructur e Feedback is often through people Load 27

28 Research Challenges Dynamics of multi-machine power systems described by Reduced Network Models or Structure Preserving Models cannot tolerate variable input sources, significant variations in frequency or voltage (~5%). RNM impedance loads are assumed constant. Smart loads of the future will be highly variable and controllable. In SPM the dynamics of multi-machine power systems are described by differential algebraic equations assuming constant 60Hz sinusoidal network response. The future smart grid may not be constant frequency. These approximations are made with integral manifolds. Physics and dynamic behavior is lost in component models. The future smart grid will be highly dynamic.

29 Research Challenges: Microgrids What are the constraints on the makeup and size of a microgrid? Can microgrids be coupled together? How would you control their interactions? How will a microgrid or collection of microgrids react to faults or major disruptions? How will they be controlled and their health monitored? In order to analyze the unconstrained behavior of microgrids and coupled microgrids, new models, theories and tools are needed.

30 Partnerships The national security challenges we seek to address require a very broad set of capabilities and fundamental R&D Sandia has an ongoing strategic relationship with the University We seek to deepen ties with the research community in areas of mutual interest - invited seminars - joint research proposals and projects - graduate student fellowships - student internships (undergraduate and graduate) - faculty sabbaticals