Infrastructure Interdependencies

Transcription

1 Infrastructure Interdependencies Terrence K. (Terry) Kelly, Ph.D. Senior National Security Officer White House Office of Science and Technology Policy based in part on an article to appear in IEEE Control (December 2001) by Steve Rinaldi, Air Force Quadrennial Defense Review Jim Peerenboom, Argonne National Laboratory Terry Kelly, Office of Science and Technology Policy

2 Infrastructure Interdependencies Our nation s infrastructures have become increasingly interconnected and interdependent this creates an increased possibility that a rather minor and routine disturbance can cascade into a regional outage it also creates new assurance challenges that can only be met by a partnership between owners and operators and government at all levels. President s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection 1997

3 Critical Infrastructures the framework of interdependent networks and systems comprising identifiable industries, institutions (including people and procedures), and distribution capabilities that provide a reliable flow of products and services essential to the defense and economic security of the United States, the smooth functioning of governments at all levels, and society as a whole. Critical Infrastructure Assurance Office

4 Examples of Critical Infrastructures Energy (electric power, oil, natural gas) Telecommunications Transportation Water systems Banking and finance Emergency services Government services Agriculture Others

5 Interdependencies Are Intuitive, but not Well Understood Transportation WALL ST. Wall Street Oil & Gas Production and Storage Satellite Business Electric Power Telecom Water Supply Emergency Services Government Information Banks/Finance

6 Infrastructures as Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) Framework for our analysis Guiding principles: Any analysis of infrastructures must account for their CAS nature Infrastructures will exhibit emergent behaviors - which cannot be predicted a priori Infrastructures are adaptable - whether through human intervention or the nature of the physical system itself Interdependencies greatly increase infrastructure complexity CAS nature requires that analyses are holistic - not reductionist - and that these analyses consider multiple dimensions

7 Definitions Dependency: A linkage or connection between two infrastructures, through which the state of one infrastructure influences or is correlated to the state of the other Interdependency: A bidirectional relationship between two infrastructures, through which the state of each infrastructure influences or is correlated to the state of the other infrastructure. More generally, two infrastructures are interdependent when each is dependent on the other

8 Examples of Infrastructure Interdependencies Fuels, Lubricants SCADA, Communications Water for Production, Cooling, Emissions Reduction Oil Water Fuel Transport, Shipping Fuel for Generators, Lubricants Fuels, Lubricants Power for Pumping Stations, Storage, Control Systems Power for Pump and Lift Stations, Control Systems Water for Cooling, Emissions Reduction Water for Cooling SCADA, Communications Water for Electric Power Power for Switches Power for Compressors, Storage, Control Systems SCADA, Communications Fuel for Generators Power for Signaling, Switches Fuel Transport, Shipping Production, Cooling, Fuel for Generators Telecom Transportation Heat Natural Gas Shipping SCADA, Communications Shipping Emissions Reduction SCADA, Communications

9 Interdependencies Considerations Increasing reliance on information technology and telecommunications has increased interdependencies Interdependencies transcend individual public and private-sector companies Infrastructure linkages vary significantly in scale and complexity local, regional, national, international Gaps exist in capability to analyze multiple contingency events involving interdependent infrastructures Understanding interdependencies requires examining multiple dimensions

10 Dimensions for Describing Infrastructure Interdependencies Coupling and Response Behavior Adaptive Loose/ Tight Inflexible Security Health/ Safety Type of Failure Linear/ Complex Business Public Policy Social/ Political Cause Common Legal/ Regulatory Technical Cascading Escalating Economic Infrastructure Characteristics Spatial Physical Organizational Operational Temporal Cyber Normal Repair/ Restoration Stressed/ Disrupted Logical Geographic State of Operation Environment Types of Interdependencies

11 Types of Interdependencies Physical: Two infrastructures are physically interdependent if the state of each is dependent on the material output(s) of the other Cyber: An infrastructure has a cyber interdependency if its state depends upon information transmitted through the information infrastructure Geographic: Infrastructures are geographically interdependent if a local environmental event can create state changes in all of them Logical: Two infrastructures are logically interdependent if the state of each depends on the state of the other via a mechanism that is not a physical, cyber, or geographic connection

12 Infrastructure Environment Economic Business Public policy Legal and regulatory Technical Security Social/political Health/safety

13 Coupling and Response Behavior Degree of coupling Loose Tight Type of interaction Linear Complex Response behavior Inflexible Adaptive Coupling Loose Tight Linear Dams Interactions Power Grids Airways Manufacturing Complex Nuclear Plant Space Missions R&D Firms Universities from Perrow: Normal Accidents

14 Examples of Recent Interdependencies Effects in California Factors/Forces Contributing to Energy Crisis in California Deregulation policies New energy marketplace dynamics Tight, high-cost gas supplies Utility financial crisis Substantial load growth Lack of new generating and transmission capacity Aging fleet of power plants Low hydro conditions Transmission/ environmental constraints Electric Power Supply/ Demand Imbalance Power Disruption Power Disruption 1 st Order Effects Reduced Gas Supply Gas Supply Curtailed Natural Gas Production Oil Pipelines Disruption of Product Pipelines Water Disruption of Irrigation Pumps 2 nd Order Effects Co- Generation Reduced Steam Injection for Heavy Oil Production Refineries Inventory Buildup; Curtailed Operations Storage Terminals Inventory Draw Down; Shortages of Gasoline and Jet Fuel Agriculture Crop Losses 3 rd Order Effects Oil Production Reduced Heavy Oil Production Road Transportation Shortages of Specially Formulated Gasoline Air Transportation Disruption of Flight Schedules Banking & Finance Financial Losses

15 Infrastructure Characteristics Organizational Operational (how the infrastructure reacts when stressed or perturbed) Temporal Infrastructure time constants Time scales of interest Spatial Components (part, unit, subsystem, system, infrastructure, interdependent infrastructures) Geographic scale (cities, regions, national, international)

16 Types of Failures Cascading failure a disruption in one infrastructure causes a disruption in a second infrastructure Escalating failure a disruption in one infrastructure exacerbates an independent disruption of a second infrastructure (e.g., the time for recovery or restoration of an infrastructure increases because another infrastructure is not available) Common cause failure a disruption of two or more infrastructures at the same time because of a common cause (e.g., natural disaster, right-of-way corridor)

17 Examples of Cascading and Escalating Failures Control Center Gas Pipeline Private Microwave Network Generating Plant Transmission Substation Natural Gas Storage Facilities Public Networks Compressor Station Distribution Substation City Gate DELAY Repair Crews Commercial Loads Industrial Loads

18 State of Operation Normal Stressed/disrupted Repair/restoration Normal Operation Power Outages Disruptions

19 Questions/Discussion 19

20 Technical R&D Challenges - I Problem Definition What are the operational requirements? What is the existing state of the art? What R&D programs exist to address the requirements? What are the gaps and shortfalls in today s programs? Architectures Designed to incorporate existing, legacy codes Accommodate disparate model types -- nodal analyses, agent-based analyses, stocks/flows, etc. Flexible and open to allow plugging in modules Can be tailored to multiple, different user communities

21 Technical R&D Challenges - II Data Collection and real-time ingestion/updating Degree of detail Validation of data Proprietary information & information sharing considerations Required data vs data requirements Classification and security concerns Scaling Temporal -- dynamics span orders of magnitude Spatial -- city to regional to national to international levels Data considerations -- what level of detail is essential?

22 Technical R&D Challenges - III Metrics Determination of metrics Development of M&S capabilities Emergence Theory of emergent behaviors Emergence and EBO Emergence and targeting priorities Relationship to enemy behaviors and options Validation and verification

23 Practical Issues in Understanding Interdependencies Importance to the operation of the infrastructures Normal operations Disruptions (including coincident events) Repair and restoration How interdependencies change as a function of outage duration, frequency, and other factors What linkages exist between critical infrastructures and community assets How backup or other mitigation mechanisms can reduce interdependence problems How businesses, government, and other organizations understand and react to intedependencies

24 Policy Research Issues Legal - Policy - Technology What is the role of the federal government: National Security Council Homeland Security Office Dept of Defense Dept of Commerce Other Departments and Agencies Regulatory agencies What is the role of governments, and how do we handle the jurisdictional issues within states, between states, and between states and the federal government International and transnational issues

25 Sociological, Business and Anthropological Research Education/Training Business/Management Risk Liability Information Sharing Antitrust Organizational Behavioral issues Human factors Data/Information overflow etc.