North American Industrial Battery Forecast

Transcription

1 Presented at the 127 th Convention of Battery Council International May 3-5, 2015 North American Industrial Battery Forecast Mitch Bregman Division President Energy and Industrial Systems

2 Thank You Industry Experts Sean Blayloch - Exide Doug Bouquard East Penn Bruce Cole Exide Taylor Frederickson - Exide John Gagge EnerSys Jim Garcia Exide Gary Gray EnXergy Vincent Halma Kion Jerry Hoffman NorthStar Sam Jaffe Cairn ERA Mark Jesko Exide Scott Johnson Clark Mark Kelley Crown Battery John Kleba Midtronics Manfred Kleinert Exide Europe François Linck Saft Jeff Long EnerSys Saeed Mahramnia Schneider Electric Jim Marshall Emerson Chuck Mathias East Penn Mike Nispel C&D Tech Jay Northey GS Battery Doug Pierce Yuasa Chad Uplinger EnerSys Steve Vechy EnerSys Mark Wels East Penn Brett Wood Toyota John Wood - Ecoult 1

3 Data Collection Methodology Sales data include lead-acid battery sales of reporting BCI members Imports from non-reporting companies are not included Stationary products include batteries 25Ah and above Lead prices assumed to be stable during forecast period Stationary 2013 market segment data corrected, total market remains unchanged 3-Year industry forecast is an accumulation of the forecast from individual reporting members 2

4 Macro Industrial Battery Market Drivers Global Economy Alternative Technologies Environmental Awareness Source: Industry Experts 3

5 Motive Power 4

6 Sales $MM NA Motive Power Battery Market 2014 $1,100 $1,050 $1,000 $950 $900 $850 $800 $750 $700 $949 $1, Industrial Truck Railroad Mining Segment 2014 Actual Growth Last Year BCI Fcst Ind. Truck 9.5% 4.2% Railroad 22.1% 4.8% Mining -20.7% 2.1% TOTAL 9.4% 4.2% Drivers North America Economy User Productivity / Solution Selling Source: BCI, Industry Experts 2014 Motive Power Sales Grew 9.4% with Strong Economy Industrial Truck is 95% of Motive Power Market 5

7 Sales $MM Sales $MM Quick Word On Rail and Mining Segments Railroad Starting Traffic & Idling/Emissions Regulations $40 $30 Railroad Battery Sales $40 $30 Mining Coal vs Natural Gas Mining Battery Sales +22% % 2014 $20 $20 $10 $10 $ $ Government Environmental Regulations are Driving Market Changes Source: BCI, Industry Experts, EPA 6

8 Sales $MM NA Motive Power Battery Market $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ Industrial Truck Railroad Mining CAGR Ind. Truck 5.5% Railroad 6.5% Mining -12.8% TOTAL 5.2% Motive Power Shows Steady Growth Source: BCI 7

9 Number of Lift Trucks (000) NA OEM Lift Truck Sales CAGR Electric 3.3% IC 1.5% TOTAL 2.5% 50 0 Electric Internal Combustion Growth Electric 4.1% IC 12.8% TOTAL 7.5% Total Lift Truck Sales Approaching 2006 Historical Peak Electric Lift Truck Sales at Record Levels Source: Industrial Truck Association 8

10 % Electric Trucks Sold NA OEM Electric Lift Truck Market Share 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% Recession Drivers Environmental Awareness North America Economy Improved Truck Technology Narrowing Performance Gap with IC Trucks Experts Expect Electric Lift Trucks to be 60-65% of the Market Source: Industrial Truck Association, Industry Experts 9

11 Industrial Truck Batteries (000) NA Industrial Truck Battery Unit Sales CAGR % % Drivers North America Economy User Productivity Industrial Truck Battery Unit Sales Peaked in Unit Sales up 1.7% Source: BCI, Industry Experts 10

12 Industrial Truck Battery Sales $MM Industrial Truck Unit Vol (000) NA Industrial Truck Battery Mix Change NA Industrial Truck Battery Sales $1, $1, % $ % $600 Industrial Truck Battery Unit Mix Other 24-Cell 18-Cell +5.2% +1.4% +1.1% +3.0% $ $ Cell -1.3% +0.5% $ User Productivity Driving Improved Product Mix - Premium Batteries (Tubular & Flat Plate High Capacity) - Opportunity Charging Requires Larger, More Expensive Batteries Source: BCI, Industry Experts 11

13 Change in OEM Lift Truck Unit Sales US Industrial Capacity Utilization 60% 40% Lift Truck Units vs. US Industrial Capacity Utilization R² = % 0% -20% % -60% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% Change in US Industrial Capacity Utilization Change in Capacity Utilization & OEM Lift Truck Sales R²=0.85 Source: Federal Reserve, BCI, ITA 12

14 MP Battery and OEM Lift Truck Units (000) US Industrial % Capacity Utilization US Industrial Capacity Utilization US Industrial Capacity Utilization & Lift Truck/Battery Sales Long-Run Ind. Cap. Util. Avg 80.1 ( ) Motive Battery Units OEM Lift Truck Sales Industrial Capacity Utilization US Industrial Production Capacity Utilization is Below the Long- Run Average, Indicating Headroom for Growth Source: Federal Reserve, BCI, ITA 13

15 Sales $MM NA Motive Power Sales Forecast $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Industrial Truck Railroad Mining Forecast CAGR Ind Truck 4.8% Railroad 5.0% Mining 7.3% TOTAL 4.8% Yearly Forecast % % % BCI Forecast MP Sales Growth at 4.8% per Year vs. Historical 5.2% Source: BCI 14

16 15 Stationary

17 Sales $MM NA Stationary Market 2014 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 $980 $ Segment 2014 Actual Growth Last Year BCI Forecast Comm. -9.6% 8.0% Ctrl & S/G 7.8% -2.2% UPS -15.3% 13.0% Misc Standby -6.0% 1.7% Communications UPS Control & Switchgear Misc Standby* TOTAL -9.4% 8.1% *Misc Standby Includes: Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling, Photovoltaic, Diesel Generator Starting, etc Stationary Market Down -9.4% in 2014 Driven by Reduced Telecom & UPS Capital Spending Source: BCI, Industry Experts 16

18 Sales $MM NA Stationary Market $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ CAGR Comm. 1.1% Ctrl & S/G 2.9% UPS -1.2% Misc Standby 17.6% TOTAL 1.9% Communications UPS Control & Switchgear Misc Standby* *Misc Standby Includes: Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling, Photovoltaic, Diesel Generator Starting, etc After Several Years of Steady Growth, Stationary Market Declined in 2014 Source: BCI, Industry Experts 17

19 Sales $MM NA Stationary Product Sales $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Percent Share 54% 44% 23% 26% 33% 20% Flooded 2-Volt VRLA VRLA Monobloc CAGR Flooded -6.1% 2-Volt VRLA 3.5% Monobloc 5.6% TOTAL 1.9% Growth Flooded -16.5% 2-Volt VRLA -1.1% Monobloc -10.1% TOTAL -9.4% Market Continues to Mix Towards VRLA Monobloc Flooded Decline Accelerated in 2014 Source: BCI 18

20 Sales $MM Communications Market Growth & Trends $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $ Flooded 2-Volt VRLA VRLA Monobloc Segment CAGR 2014 Growth Flooded -4.8% -0.5% 2-Volt VRLA 2.1% -2.3% Monobloc 2.4% -16.7% TOTAL 1.1% -9.6% Drivers Telecom Capex Spending Regulatory Environment Carrier System Architecture Changes Telecom Market Uncertainty and Evolution Impacting Battery Sales Source: BCI, Industry Experts 19

21 Why Mobile Data Didn t Drive Battery Sales Uncertainty AT&T Spending Spree Acquisition Paralysis Net Neutrality Changing Industry Dynamics Network Build-Out Changing Software vs Hardware (AT&T Domain 2.0) Increasing Competition (Incumbents & Disrupters) Keep Engaged in the Market During Uncertainty and Change Source: Industry Experts, AT&T/Verizon Annual Reports 20

22 Communications Quarterly Sales % 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Telecom Year/Year Quarterly Sales Change Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012/ / /2013 Drivers Large Telecoms Influencing Market Capital Spending Mix Change Uncertainty Communications Sales Remain Soft, Five Straight Quarters of Year/Year Quarterly Sales Decline Source: BCI, Industry Experts 21

23 Sales $MM NA UPS Market Growth & Trends $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $ Flooded 2-Volt VRLA VRLA Monobloc Segment CAGR 2014 Growth Flooded -12.7% -41.7% 2-Volt VRLA 1.3% -8.0% Monobloc 4.9% -3.7% TOTAL -1.2% -15.3% Drivers Co-Location Data Center Capacity Storage Efficiency Changing Backup Requirements Mix Change = Lower $/Watt Evolution from Enterprise to Cloud Data Storage Driving Market Source: BCI, Industry Experts 22

24 Sales $MM NA UPS Quarterly Sales $85 $80 $75 $70 $65 $60 $55 $50 UPS Quarterly Sales $MM Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Drivers Near-Term Data Center Overcapacity Long-Term Data Storage Demand Growth Since last summer, the number of videos watched on Facebook has tripled, now totaling over 4 billion per day. - John Titlow, April 2015 UPS Sales Recovering, Three Straight Quarters of Sales Growth After Declines Starting 2Q13 Source: BCI, Industry Experts, fastcompany.com 23

25 Sales $MM Control & Switchgear Market Growth & Trends $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ Flooded 2-Volt VRLA VRLA Monobloc Segment CAGR 2014 Growth Flooded 0.9% 6.4% 2-Volt VRLA 11.3% 8.8% Monobloc 5.9% 16.3% TOTAL 2.9% 7.8% Drivers Aging Power Infrastructure Increasing Power Demand Control & Switchgear Market Remains Stable Flooded Batteries Approximately 70% of the Market Source: BCI, Industry Experts 24

26 Sales $MM NA Misc. Standby Market Growth & Trends $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ Flooded 2-Volt VRLA VRLA Monobloc Segment CAGR 2014 Growth Flooded -1.2% -30.4% 2-Volt VRLA 12.2% 7.9% Monobloc 21.7% -8.2% TOTAL 17.6% -6.0% Drivers Renewable Energy Demand Rail-Positive Train Control *Misc Standby Includes: Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling, Photovoltaic, Diesel Generator Starting, etc Many Applications, Mix Driving Market Sales Source: BCI, Industry Experts 25

27 Sales $MM NA Stationary Sales Forecast $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Communications UPS Control & Switchgear Misc Standby Forecast CAGR Comm. 4.4% Ctrl & S/G 6.0% UPS 2.4% Misc Standby 4.0% TOTAL 4.0% Yearly Forecast % % % BCI Forecast Stationary Growth at 4.0% per Year Source: BCI 26

28 Industrial Battery Market Summary 2014 NA Market $1.93 Billion Motive Power $1.04 Billion Stationary $888 Million Market Flat in 2014 Motive Power 9.4% Stationary -9.4% Forecasted Growth 4.5% CAGR Motive Power 4.8% to $1.20 Billion Stationary 4.0% to $1.00 Billion Source: BCI 27

29 Sales $MM NA Energy Storage Systems BCI Forecast $100 $80 Forecast $86 Drivers Increasing Renewable Energy Generation / Energy Conservation $60 Government Regulation & Funding Overtaxed Infrastructure $40 $20 $0 $36 $18 $4 $2 $ Constraints Project Economics & Capital Cost Unproven Technology Market Moving Out of Demonstration Stage Confidence Increasing, BCI Forecasting Strong Growth Source: BCI, Industry Experts 28

30 Grid Energy Storage is Real in New York City NYSERDA & Con Edison 125MW Peak Reduction Program Offset Potential Closing of Indian Point Nuclear Facility 44MW for Energy Storage for Behind-the- Meter Distributed Energy Storage Brooklyn/Queens 52MW Demand Management Program Target to defer $1 Billion substation investment for 10 years 11MW for Utility-Side Battery Energy Storage required in place by 2018 First 1MW of Projects Approved Glenwood Management Luxury Apartments Proven Lead-Acid Technology Demand Response and Peak Shaving Two Opportunities Valued at $50MM in NYC Source: Demand-Energy.com, NYSERDA, Con Edison, greentechmedia.com 29

31 What Keeps You Up At Night? Source: Industry Experts, worditout.com 30

32 Stationary Motive Alternative Technologies Customers want smaller, lighter, maintenancefree, longer-lasting batteries: lowest cost of ownership Fuel Cell Lithium Lead-Acid batteries can t meet all the needs, all the time Alternative technologies will win select applications Lead-Acid is a Low-Cost, Trusted Solution Technology Advances Critical for Sustained Growth Source: Industry Experts, datacenterjournal.com, BYD 31 Lithium NiCd Fly Wheels

33 Presented at the 127 th Convention of Battery Council International May 3-5, 2015 North American Industrial Battery Forecast Mitch Bregman Division President Energy and Industrial Systems