Senior Housing News Webinar. New Construction is Back

Transcription

1 Senior Housing News Webinar New Construction is Back June 25, 2014

2 Seniors Housing Market Performance & Trends Senior Housing News Seniors Housing Construction Webinar June 25,

3 Presentation Outline Market Fundamentals Overview Supply and Demand Construction Trends Asking Rent Growth Capital Markets Overview Closed Transactions Volume Property Pricing National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 3

4 Property Count Seniors Housing Occupancy Distribution Seniors Housing Occupancy Distribution; All Markets 1Q14 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, % 80-85% 85-90% 90-95% % Source: NIC MAP Data & Analysis Service National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 4

5 Private-pay Seniors Housing Occupancy Continues to Strengthen Seniors Housing Occupancy 4Q05 1Q14 93% 92% 91% 90% Secondary All Markets Primary 89% 88% 87% 86% Source: NIC MAP Data & Analysis Service National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 5

6 PIT SJ NY B B M SF DC P S D C D S LA O SA C P A M SD KC S T M H R C LV D P The Breadth of the Recovery in Primary Markets Seniors Housing Occupancy by Metro Market As of 1Q14 100% Pre-recession Peak to Trough Range Current Quarter Occupancy 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% Source: NIC MAP Data & Analysis Service National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 6

7 SJ NY CLE CIN BAL PIT TAM SF POR ORL BOS DC SAC SEA DET LA DEN SA KC STL MIN SD ATL RIV PHI MIA CHI HOU LV DAL PHO Sizable Variation in Assisted Living Occupancy Rates by Metro Market Majority Assisted Living Occupancy By Metro Market As of 1Q14 98% 96% 94% Increased Q/Q Decreased Q/Q 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% 80% Source: NIC MAP Data & Analysis Service National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 7

8 Seasonality Hits Assisted Living, Occupancy Rises for Other Properties Occupancy by Campus Type; Primary Markets 4Q05 1Q14 *Includes all CCRCs and other entrance fee properties. 95% 93% 91% 89% Independent Living CCRCs* Assisted Living Nursing Care 87% 85% Freestanding Memory Care 83% Source: NIC MAP Data & Analysis Service National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 8

9 Construction Activity Moderates, 1Q14 Starts Down 65% vs. Last Year Units Under Construction by Campus Type; Primary Markets 4Q05 1Q14 *Includes all CCRCs and other entrance fee properties. 12,000 10,000 8,000 Assisted Living 6,000 4,000 Independent Living 2, Source: NIC MAP Data & Analysis Service CCRCs* Freestanding Memory Care National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 9

10 Construction Concentrated Locally and in Assisted Living/Memory Care Current Construction Rankings (New/Expansions) CCRCs* Independent Living Assisted Living Freestanding Memory Care DET DAL NY DEN SJ MIA HOU HOU MIN SA MIN CLE HOU HOU BOS CHI LA NY ATL DAL CHI BAL TAM PHO KC DEN PHI ATL PIT PHI DAL TAM STL DC SEA BOS DEN DET PHO DC ,000 Source: NIC MAP Data & Analysis Service , , ,000 *Includes all CCRCs and other entrance fee properties. National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 10

11 Tempered Construction to Contribute to Independent Living Recovery Majority Independent Living Supply-Demand Forecast Primary Markets 1Q06 1Q15 F Units 6,000 5,000 Inventory Growth (L) Absorption (L) Occupancy (R) 93% Forecast 92% 4,000 91% 3,000 90% 2,000 89% 1,000 88% 0 87% -1,000 86% -2,000 85% Source: NIC MAP Data & Analysis Service National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 11

12 Assisted Living Supply to Accelerate, Overall Balanced Supply-Demand Majority Assisted Living Supply-Demand Forecast Primary Markets 1Q06 1Q15 F Units 3,000 2,500 Inventory Growth (L) Absorption (L) Occupancy (R) 93% Forecast 92% 2,000 91% 1,500 90% 1,000 89% % 0 87% % -1,000 85% Source: NIC MAP Data & Analysis Service National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 12

13 Assisted Living Construction Starts Moderate Weather to Blame? Construction Starts (Nbr. Units); Primary Markets 1Q06 1Q14 Majority Assisted Living 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 3,000 Majority Independent Living 2,000 1, Source: NIC MAP Data & Analysis Service National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 13

14 Most Assisted Living Construction in Combined Service Properties Units Under Construction in Majority Assisted Living By Campus Type Primary Markets 4Q05 1Q14 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Combined Properties Units % Total IL % AL 4,402 57% MC 2,282 29% NC 139 2% 3,000 2,000 1, Source: NIC MAP Data & Analysis Service Freestanding Memory Care Freestanding Assisted Living National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 14

15 High Construction Falling Occupancy Majority Assisted Living Supply-Demand; 1Q14 Top 10 Markets Ranked by Construction vs. Inventory Construction Absorption* Inventory* Employment** Houston, TX 17.4% 9.6% 8.7% 2.8% Denver, CO 12.7% 4.5% 6.1% 1.6% Detroit, MI 10.5% 3.5% 0.5% 2.1% Minneapolis, MN 9.4% 9.6% 7.7% 1.3% Cleveland, OH 9.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% Orlando, FL 8.7% 1.2% -0.1% 3.0% Tampa, FL 8.1% 1.3% 0.2% 2.5% Boston, MA 8.0% 3.4% 6.0% 0.2% Kansas City, MO 8.0% 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% San Antonio, TX 7.5% 5.8% 4.1% 1.8% All Primary M arkets 5.4% 2.8% 2.3% 1.7% * Annual % change ** Annual % change; as of Jan 2014 Source: NIC MAP Data & Analysis Service National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 15

16 Asking Rent Growth Remains Steady, Outpacing Expenses for Now Annual Rent Growth/Inflation; Primary Markets 1Q07 1Q14 5% 4% 3% Majority NC 2% Majority AL Majority IL 1% Cost Index* * Avg Hourly Earnings (Nursing/Residential Care) x Food/Beverage CPI x 0.40, annual % chg 0% Source: NIC MAP Data & Analysis Service; Bureau of Labor Statistics; NIC Research & Analytics National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 16

17 Private Buyers Represent 60% of 1Q14 Volume, Public/REITs Close $368m U.S. Seniors Housing & Care Transactions Volume ($b) 1Q08 1Q14* $12 $10 User/Other Private Institutional Public/REIT $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Source: NIC MAP Data & Analysis Service * Volume for 1Q14 is preliminary. Closed transactions only. National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 17

18 Non-Portfolio Pricing Remains Near Peak Rolling 4-Quarter Price Per Unit ($k) By Property Type & Portfolio/Single Property 1Q08 1Q14* $250 $200 $150 Seniors Housing: Portfolio Seniors Housing: Single $100 $50 Nursing Care: Portfolio Nursing Care: Single $ Source: NIC MAP Data & Analysis Service * Pricing for 1Q14 is preliminary. Closed transactions only. National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 18

19 Spread Over 10-Year Yield (basis points) Seniors Housing Following Multifamily Spreads Rolling 4-Quarter Cap Rate Spreads 1Q08 1Q14* Seniors Housing 400 Multifamily Source: NIC MAP Data & Analysis Service; RCA; FRED * Pricing for 1Q14 is preliminary. Closed transactions only. National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 19

20 Chuck Harry Managing Director and Director of Research & Analytics National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 20

21 Rationale for Construction Lending Newly Constructed Product Addresses shifting consumer preferences Operationally efficient design Marketing appeal Strong investor demand for high quality product Relationship Building Less Crowded Competitive Environment

22 Who is Lending? Banks REITs Finance Companies on a limited basis

23 Main Elements of Construction Loan Leverage, Pricing, Recourse Term, Amortization, Distributions, Reserves, Ancillary Business Stay Tuned for A Common Vocabulary: RED s Guide to Construction Lending Terminology

24 Make it Happen-Tips from a Lender Construction and Pre-Opening budget Operator involvement in proforma, design, and market assessment Defensible business plan Demonstrate knowledge of the market Alignment between parties Don t solicit financing proposals too early Equity Zoning Line of sight to permits

25 Market Observations Attractive Products Crossover Developers Increasingly competitive construction environment 6/26/

26 Kathryn Burton Gray Senior Managing Director Head of Seniors Housing & Health Care tel Adam B. Sherman Managing Director tel Watch your for A Common Vocabulary: RED s Guide to Construction Lending Terminology or visit redcapitalgroup.com BRIDGE FINANCING CONSTRUCTION FINANCING PERMANENT AGENCY (FHA & FANNIE MAE) DEBT & EQUITY PLACEMENTS* FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES* *Services provided by RED Capital Markets, LLC (MEMBER FINRA/SIPC) and its registered representatives. 6/26/

27 ENVIRONMENT l The fundamental outlook for the senior housing sector is positive; Demographic trends for senior housing show a steep increase in the 75-and-over age group in coming years with limited new supply in hard to zone locations. The industry will be challenged to meet the demand for new units coming from the rapidly increasing resident age group. - Construction of new senior housing units declined drastically after the boom period of the late 1990s. The credit crunch, recession and slow recovery has slowed development since Senior housing development is rebounding in markets with fewer barriers to entry. Catalyst for Opportunity 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Q1 '06 Q3 '06 Q1 '07 Q3 '07 Q1 '08 Q3 '08 Q1 '09 Q3 '09 Q1 '10 Q3 '10 Q1 '11 Q3 '11 Majority IL Majority AL Chart Source: NIC - Increasing demographic trends senior population > 75 projected to grow annually by fivefold as compared to Source: PREI Research Well located, high quality senior living communities developed now will enjoy above average returns and unique market acceptance.

28 OPPORTUNITY l Need based nature of higher acuity (AL and ALZ) provides stability in both increasing and decreasing cycles. l Projects completed in the next four years will be uniquely positioned to capture benefits of a recovering economy with limited new competitive product providing enhanced yields. l Senior housing team with established track record of sourcing Best in Market sites, constructing high quality State of the Art product with strong in-house management. - Attractive sites, with no significant competition due to challenging entitlement processes; - Development team with deep local knowledge and strong construction management skills; - Operations management capable of best metrics in market; - Long term ownership drives management continuity. Senior housing development investment utilizing experienced team with fast start deal, product and market knowledge.

29 TARGET l High density affluent markets l Complex and difficult zoning = barrier to entry l Limited Supply/In fill locations l Known competitive landscape l Core of walkable communities l High visibility and traffic counts l Clustered assets REALIZE l 25,000 Qualified Care Givers l 7,500 Qualified Seniors l $115,000 Care Giver Median Income l $650,000 Median Home Value MARKET/SITE SELECTION Develop new product in select major metro markets in California and the Northeast. The Kensington Approach to market will drive opportunities in proven markets with limited supply.

30 ENTITLEMENT PROCESS Entitlement Timeline/Cost Land Contract Submit Zoning Applications Environmental Initial Review City Council City Council Grants Entitlement Due Diligence Application Deemed Complete Planning Commission Possible Public Vote 0 Months 6 Months Months Months $50,000 $350,000 $500,000 $750,000 Ability to manage a complex, costly and difficult entitlement process l Respect for the City s land use entitlement and environmental review process l Identify and coordinate diverse group of consultants l Understanding of citizen participation initiatives l Collaborative approach to the process

31 Kensington Park Retirement Community Kensington, MD The Kensington Redondo Beach Redondo Beach, CA The Kensington Montclair Montclair, NJ The Kensington White Plains White Plains, NY Kensington Place Redwood City, CA The Kensington Sierra Madre Sierra Madre, CA The Kensington Falls Church Falls Church, VA