Quantitative Analysis in International Affairs American University School of International Service SIS Fall 2008

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1 Quantitative Analysis in International Affairs American University School of International Service SIS Fall 2008 Instructor Faculty Assistant Name Prof. Rachel Sullivan Robinson Katie Rice Phone Office Clark 117 Office Hours Tuesdays 2:00-5:00 Thursdays 1:00-3:00 Course Meeting Time Tuesdays 5:30-8:00 Meeting Location SIS 17 Mondays 12:00-2:00 SSRL (Hurst 202) Course Description Statistical evidence is a particularly compelling way to support claims in international relations (IR) because of its systematic nature and its widespread acceptance across background and place. This course will provide you with the knowledge and skills necessary to be an informed consumer and producer of statistical knowledge. Specifically, you will learn the following: How to find data commonly used to evaluate policies and make decisions in IR How to evaluate and make claims of causality How to present data in figures and tables using Microsoft Excel and Word How to interpret results of commonly performed statistical procedures How to conduct descriptive & multivariate analyses using statistical software (SPSS) My philosophy of statistics, which guides this course, is that the simplest argument is almost always the most compelling, particularly when one s audience consists of non-specialists, such as congresspeople or country leaders. Thus we start the course by discussing descriptive statistics, data sources, and how to present data clearly in tables and figures. We then move on to bivariate comparison the best way to begin to understand the relationship between two concepts. We continue on to regression analysis, which allows for the simultaneous assessment of the effect of multiple factors on an outcome of interest. We finish the course by learning about sampling techniques and a variety of ways to test whether groups differ from one another in meaningful ways. Throughout the course I will stress the importance of distilling the results from statistical analysis into a format that is easily digestible by your intended audience, which includes figures and tables accompanied by explanations in plain English. Required Text Healey, Joseph F Statistics: A Tool for Social Research, Seventh Edition. Belmont, CA: Thomson Wadsworth. The text is available new and used from the AU bookstore, as well as from a variety of online sources (e.g., Amazon.com, Powells.com, ichapters.com). Note that this is not the most recent edition of the book, and that you should be sure to buy the version without the CD (it s cheaper!). I don t mind if you use an older (or newer) edition, but it s your responsibility to know where your edition differs from the seventh edition.

2 The book is also on reserve at the library. Course Activities Pragmatics The course meets once a week for 14 weeks, and there is no class the week of Thanksgiving (11/25/08). Each class lasts two and a half hours, and we will always take a 10-minute break in the middle of class to stretch and have a snack. We will organize collective snack duties during the first meeting. Class Time Class time will be divided between lectures, Q&A, and time in the computer lab (the SPA Lab in Ward Sub-Terrace). Lectures will be focused on the statistical material in the textbook, while time in the computer lab will be for learning how to use SPSS and for accessing data. Homework Homework will be a combination of problem sets, short articles for discussion, and the production of a research paper on a topic of your choosing. Problem sets and readings will be posted on the course s Blackboard site. Research Paper The research paper will provide you with an opportunity to practice asking a research question, locating the research already produced by others on the topic, finding and analyzing data to answer your question, and presenting the results in both oral and written form. The final paper will include an annotated bibliography and an original, statistical analysis of data pertinent to your question. You will receive feedback on your paper at several points during the semester, and you will present your findings to your peers in class. Evaluation Your final grade is out of 1000 points and has three components: Midterm exam 20% 200 points Homework 35% 6 assignments; 5 worth 50 points each, 6 th worth 100 points Research project 45% 75 points for annotated bibliography 75 points for data analysis 50 points for presentation 50 points for review of a peer s data analysis 200 points for final paper Homework is graded on a +,, -, -- (etc.) basis, where a + corresponds to 50 points, a to 45 points, a - to 40 points, and so forth. The final assignment will be graded in the same manner, but with increments of 10. Your homework may be typed or handwritten, and the pages should be stapled together. If you write up your homework by hand, please try to be at neat as possible, and remove all hanging pieces of notebook paper. It is OK to use Excel for its calculating capabilities, but please do not use the formula commands. I encourage you to work together on homework, but ask that you please write up your own assignment to turn in. At the end of the semester, your total points will be converted to a letter grade along the general lines of: A 95% and higher B % C % A % B % C % B % C % An A means superior work, a B excellent work, a C satisfactory work, a D unsatisfactory and/or incomplete work, and an F below minimum-standard work. 2

3 Participation, which includes coming to class, asking questions, and contributing to discussions, is expected and so therefore is not attributed a specific percentage of the total grade. Policies As members of the same intellectual community, we benefit from one another s insights and presence, so your attendance at all class sessions is expected. If you miss class, please be sure to contact your peers for notes and information on assignments ( addresses are available through Blackboard). The best way to contact me is via or by coming to my office hours. I will try to answer all s within 24 hours of their receipt, except on weekends, when I generally do not check . If you cannot come to my office hours, I am willing to try to schedule appointments for other times. All homework assignments must be turned in during class in hard copy. Homework assignments will not be accepted late, as we will always discuss them immediately following their completion. All paper assignments are to be turned in electronically via Blackboard by the beginning of class the day they are due. For assignments related to the paper, I will automatically grant you a 24-hour extension if and only if it is requested at least 24 hours before the due date. The grades of late papers (those turned in anytime after class the day the paper was due, or anytime after the 24-hour extension) will be reduced by one letter grade and will be accepted no later than a week after the original due date. All requests for grade changes must be made in writing, and submitted to me in person within one week of the return of the test/assignment. I reserve the right to increase or decrease a disputed grade. Accommodations If you require disability-related accommodations, please make sure that you have registered with Disability Support Services (DSS) such that they will send me an accommodation letter. More information is available on their web site ( For any other accommodations, please provide me with documentation before the third week of classes. I also encourage you to come talk to me personally if there is anything I can do to help facilitate your full participation in the course. Academic Integrity University policies on academic integrity (this includes plagiarism!) will be strictly enforced. By registering, you have acknowledged your awareness of the Academic Integrity Code ( and you are obliged to become familiar with your rights and responsibilities as defined by the Code. My Teaching Philosophy Successful learning means both mastering the relevant subject matter as well as acquiring and practicing associated skills. As a teacher, it is my responsibility to 1) create an environment where all students can learn, 2) equip students with the tools necessary for that learning to occur, and 3) provide necessary support along the way. Consider me your guide to this course as well as to the subject of statistics. It is my responsibility to try to anticipate your needs, but it your responsibility to let me know if your needs are not being met. To that end, I will ask you to complete a mid-term evaluation of my teaching and the course overall. 3

4 Detailed Schedule Please note that you are expected to have completed homework and reading by class time the day that they are listed. (It s OK if you don t get to the reading in time for Week 1!) Week Date Topic Readings Homework Due 1 Aug. 26 Introduction & Descriptive Chapters 1-4 Statistics 2 Sept. 2 Descriptive Statistics, Cont d. Research Paper, Tables/Figures Homework 1 on descriptive statistics 3 Sept. 9 Computer Lab** Data sources Read Foreign Policy (2005) 4 Sept. 16 SPSS Lab** Basics Paper Proposal 5 Sept. 23 Introduction to Correlation Chapters 11, 12, 14 Homework 2 on SPSS 6 Sept. 30 Bivariate & Multivariate Regression Chapters Homework 3 on correlation 7 Oct. 7 SPSS Lab** Regression Literature review for paper 8 Oct. 14 The Normal Curve & Sampling Chapters 5-6 Homework 4 on regression 9 Oct. 21 Midterm Exam None 10 Oct. 28 Data Analysis Lab** Read Steinberg & Saideman (2008) 11 Nov. 4 Estimation & T-tests Chapters 7-9 Data analysis for paper 1 12 Nov. 11 Measures of Association for Categorical Data Chapters 10, 13 Homework 5 on significance tests 13 Nov. 18 Presentations None Homework 6 (comprehensive) Nov. 25 NO CLASS Thanksgiving! 14 Dec. 2 Presentations None None Dec. 9 Final paper due to Blackboard by 5 pm. ** Note: All computer lab sessions take place in the SPA Computer Lab in Ward Sub-Terrace ** 1 Your review of a peer s data analysis will be due the Friday before his or her in-class presentation. 4

5 Additional Resources Healey Companion Web Site Go to search for the textbook, and select the student companion site (to the right). Here you will find data sets and a variety of other resources. CTE SPSS Resources Options include print and video tutorials, as well as links to SPSS s own site ( Similar resources are also available through J:\CLASSES\SSRL\SPSS\Doc Tutorial Files. Social Science Research Lab (SSRL) Located in Hurst 202, this computer lab is staffed by graduate students knowledgeable about statistics and SPSS who are paid to help you! (Note this is where Katie, our class TA, will hold office hours, on Mondays from 12:00 pm to 2:00 pm.) The lab s phone number is (202) and they are open during the following times: Monday-Thursday 9:30 am 11:00 pm Friday 9:30 am 7:00 pm Saturday 12:00 pm 7:00 pm Sunday 10:00 am 7:00 pm The Cartoon Guide to Statistics Provides a humorous alternative to the course s main text. By Gonick and Smith (2005). How to Lie With Statistics Gives a good sense of how statistics are abused, and in so doing, how to use appropriately. By Huff and Geis (1993). StatSoft Electronic Textbook Online textbook with clear descriptions of statistical concepts, from the basic to the complex ( The Math Forum An amazing resource for all things math, including a database of problems and their solutions, with commentary from math experts ( UCLA Stat Computing Portal Includes links to a variety of online statistics resources, organized by software (including SPSS) and type of analysis (multilevel, survey, etc.) ( Web Center for Social Research Methods Includes a neat statistical advisor (under Selecting Statistics ) that helps you select the appropriate statistics to use ( 5