The hazard of Global Bleaching in Belize Barrier Reef

Transcription

1 P E T I T I O N TO THE WORLD HERITAGE COMMITTEE REQUESTING INCLUSION OF BELIZE BARRIER REEF RESERVE SYSTEM IN THE LIST OF WORLD HERITAGE IN DANGER AS A RESULT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOR PROTECTIVE MEASURES & ACTIONS November 15, 2004 FROM: Belize Institute of Environmental Law and Policy (BELPO) P.O. Box 54, San Ignacio, Cayo District, Belize, Central America Telephone: (501) (501) [email protected] TO: World Heritage Committee UNESCO World Heritage Centre 7, place de Fontenoy 7532 Paris 07 SP France

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3 Table of Contents Executive Summary 3 I. Legal Framework to list the Belize Barrier Reef on the List of World Heritage in Danger... 5 A. Right of Non-Governmental Organizations to Petition 5 B. List of World Heritage in Danger 5 C. Criteria for Listing a Site... 5 D. Site Requirements 5 E. Supplementary Factors. 6 F. Inclusion Criteria for Natural Properties... 6 II. Climate Change and its Science 7 A. Climate Change Science Has a Long Pedigree... 7 B. Climate Change Science Has Strengthened in Legally Significant Ways since III. IV. Satisfaction of Requirements and Supplementary Factors to List the Belize Barrier Reef as World Heritage in Danger 10 A. The Belize Barrier Reef is on the World Heritage List. 10 B. The Belize Barrier Reef is Threatened by Serious and Specific Danger Threats to the Belize Barrier Reef 12 a. Climate Change and the Oceans. 12 b. Climate Change and Coral Bleaching 13 c. Additional Threats to the Reef and the Compounding Effects of Climate Change 17 i. Overfishing 17 ii. Pollution 19 iii. Coral Disease 20 iv. Increased Coastal Development/Tourism. 21 v. Multiple Threats Make the Reef Less Resilient to Climate Change Impacts Threats to the Belize Barrier Reef Amount to Ascertained & Potential Dangers 23 a. Ascertained Danger. 23 b. Potential Danger C. Major Operations are Necessary for the Conservation of the Belize Barrier Reef Program for Corrective Measures at the Belize Barrier Reef..25 a. Enhance Protection From Other Threats to the Reef System Health so that Corals will be More Resilient to Climate change 26 b. Mitigate Climate Change Impacts by Extending MPA Protection to Least Affected Areas..27 c. Establish a Coral Bleaching Response Program d. Improve efforts at Research, Monitoring, and Education Global Response 29 D. Request for Assistance for Protection of the Belize Barrier Reef...31 Conclusion

4 The World Heritage Committee should uphold its duty under Article 11(4) of the World Heritage Convention to add the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System (Belize Barrier Reef) to the List of World Heritage in Danger. The Belize Institute of Environmental Law and Policy (BELPO), a non-governmental organization incorporated in 1995 in Belize to promote the development and enforcement of environmental laws, petitions the World Heritage Committee to uphold its duty under Article 11(4) of the 1972 Convention Concerning the Protection of the World Cultural and Natural Heritage (World Heritage Convention) to list the Belize Barrier Reef as World Heritage in Danger due to the serious and specific, ascertained and potential dangers from the combined effects of global climate change. 1 The unique and diverse Belize Barrier Reef community is currently facing serious and specific danger due to the effects of global climate change. The Site faces additional threats, including pollution, coral disease, coastal development, increased tourism impacts, especially cruise ship tourism, and over fishing, that have weakened and will continue to further weaken the resiliency of the reef system. These threats compound the danger of global climate change by making the reef more vulnerable to its effects. Global climate change is a real and serious threat, particularly to sensitive coral reef ecosystems like that of the Belize Barrier Reef. Numerous recent scientific studies identify climate change as the greatest future threat to the world s coral reefs and to the Belize Barrier Reef. 2 Climate change can cause a phenomenon known as coral bleaching that eventually leads to changes in ecosystem composition and mortality of corals. 3 Coral bleaching has resulted in a 50% reduction in live coral cover in some areas at the Belize Barrier Reef. 4 If the World Heritage Committee and the Government of Belize do not take action now to combat the direct and compounding effects of climate change, the unique 1 Work on this petition began as an idea presented at the non-governmental organization Environmental Law Alliance Worldwide (E-LAW) 2002 annual meeting in Guadalajara, Mexico, which BELPO attended. Work began with the efforts of the University of Florida/University of Costa Rica Joint Program in Environmental Law and its Conservation Clinic to evaluate the legal status of protection of the entire Mesoamerican reef system. Research support was provided by the University of Florida/University of Costa Rica Joint Program in Environmental Law and Conservation Clinic: Erika Zimmerman, J.D. Candidate ([email protected]); Thomas T. Ankersen, Director ([email protected]) edu/summer_costarica]. Working with BELPO and other environmental law NGOs, the Joint Program Conservation Clinic in Costa Rica helped to examine different threats to the multi-national reef system. Support to the Joint Program from the John D. and Katherine T. MacArthur Foundation and to E-LAW from the Summitt Foundation allowed the participation of environmental lawyers from each of the reef countries, including Belize. 2 See e.g. Kramer, Philip A. and Patricia Richards Kramer. Ecoregional Conservation Planning for the Mesoamerican Caribbean Reef (MACR), 15 (May 2002) ; See also Wilkinson, Clive, Chapter 1- Coral Bleaching and Mortality- the 1998 Event 4 Years Later and Bleaching to Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2002, 43, Pomerance, Rafe. Coral Bleaching, Coral Mortality, and Global Climate Change Report presented to the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force. (5 March 1999), Hoegh-Guldberg, O. Climate Change: Coral bleaching and the future of the world s coral reefs. Marine and Freshwater Research 50: (1999), Smith, S.V. and Buddemeier, R.W Global change and coral reef ecosystems. Annual Review of Ecological Systems 23: ; Pew Oceans Commission. America s Living Oceans: Chartering A Course for Sea Change. A Report to the Nation: Recommendations for a New National Ocean Policy (May 2003). 3 Wilkinson, Clive, Chapter 1- Coral Bleaching and Mortality- the 1998 Event 4 Years Later and Bleaching to Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2002, 43 [hereinafter Wilkinson, Coral Bleaching]. 4 Almada-Villela, Patricia & Melanie McField, Phillip Kramer, Patricia Richards Kramer, and Ernesto Arias-Gonzalez Chapter 16- Status of Coral Reefs of MesoAmerica: Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador. Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2002, 314.

5 character and diversity of the Site, which warrants its listing as a World Heritage Site, may be lost forever. Action must be taken at the local level to make ecosystems more resilient to the effects of climate change. The World Heritage Committee should list the Belize Barrier Reef as World Heritage in Danger to acknowledge the effects of global climate change on the Site as well as to implement an immediate program of corrective measures to bolster the reef against these climate change effects. 5

6 I. Legal Framework to list the Belize Barrier Reef on the List of World Heritage in Danger A. Right of Non-Governmental Organizations to Petition Pursuant to the Information Kit: the List of World Heritage in Danger, private individuals, non-governmental organizations, or other groups, as well as a State Party, may inform the World Heritage Committee of existing threats to World Heritage Sites. B. List of World Heritage in Danger Article 11(4) of the World Heritage Convention states that the Intergovernmental Committee for the Protection of the Cultural and Natural Heritage of Outstanding Universal Value (World Heritage Committee) shall establish, keep up to date and publish, whenever circumstances shall so require, under the title List of World Heritage in Danger, a list of the property appearing in the World Heritage List for the conservation of which major operations are necessary and for which assistance has been requested under this Convention. C. Criteria for Listing a Site Pursuant to Article 11(5), the World Heritage Committee defines criteria for the listing of a World Heritage Site on the World Heritage in Danger List. These criteria and associated provisions are provided in Section III, paragraphs of the Operational Guidelines for Implementation of the World Heritage Convention (Operational Guidelines). D. Site Requirements The Operational Guidelines (80) sets out four requirements that a site must meet before the World Heritage Committee can consider its inclusion on the List of World Heritage in Danger in accordance with Article 11(4). The four requirements are as follows: 1. the property under consideration is on the World Heritage List; 2. the property is threatened by serious and specific danger; 3. major operations are necessary for the conservation of the property; 4. assistance under the Convention has been requested for the property; the Committee is of the view that its assistance in certain cases may most effectively be limited to messages of its concern, including the message sent by inclusion of a site on the List of World Heritage in Danger and that such assistance may be requested by any Committee member or the Secretariat. 6

7 E. Supplementary Factors The Committee may keep in mind discretionary factors provided by Operational Guidelines (85) when considering the inclusion of a site. These supplementary factors are: a. Decisions that affect World Heritage properties are taken by Governments after balancing all factors. The advice of the World Heritage Committee can often be decisive if it can be given before the property becomes threatened. b. Particularly in the case of ascertained danger, the physical or cultural deterioration to which a property has been subjected should be judged according to the intensity of its effects and analyzed case by case. c. Above all in the case of potential danger, one should consider that: i. the threat should be appraised according to the normal evolution of the social and economic framework in which the property is situated; ii. it is often impossible to assess certain threats as to their effect on cultural or natural properties iii. some threats are not imminent in nature, but can only be anticipated, such as demographic growth. d. Finally, in its appraisal the Committee should take into account any cause of unknown or unexpected origin which endangers a cultural or natural property. F. Inclusion Criteria for Natural Properties The Operational Guidelines (81) provides that the Committee can enter a property on the List of World Heritage in Danger when it finds that the condition of the property corresponds to at least one of the following criteria. The relevant criteria that warrant the listing of the Belize Barrier Reef are listed below: Operational Guidelines (83) In the case of natural properties: i. ASCERTAINED DANGER- The property is faced with specific and proven imminent danger, such as: a. A serious decline in the population of the endangered species or the other species of outstanding universal value which the property was legally established to protect, either by natural factors such as disease or by man-made factors such as poaching. b. Severe deterioration of the natural beauty or scientific value of the property, as by human settlement, construction of reservoirs which flood important parts of the property, industrial and agricultural development including use of pesticides and fertilizers, major public works, mining, pollution, logging, firewood collection, etc. 7

8 c. Human encroachment on boundaries or in upstream areas which threaten the integrity of the property. ii. POTENTIAL DANGER- The property is faced with major threats, which could have deleterious effects on its inherent characteristics. Such threats are, for example:... b. planned resettlement or development projects within the property or so situated that the impacts threaten the property;... d. the management plan is lacking or inadequate, or not fully implemented. II. Climate Change and its Science Climate change, particularly in the form of higher sea surface temperatures and higher atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), leads to coral bleaching and decreased carbonate saturation, respectively. Before submitting (in section III) how the conditions for danger listing are met, we set out in this section some of the basics of climate change and its science, with a focus on these two aspects relevant to coral reefs. We show that climate change science has a long pedigree that it has strengthened in legally significant ways since 1988, that climate change in respect of these two aspects is real and will get worse, and that human activities lie at the heart of the problem. A. Climate Change Science Has a Long Pedigree The science of climate change has come a long way since Benjamin Franklin began his climate studies in 1763: since the first description of the greenhouse effect, the first calculation of global warming from human emissions of CO 2 and the first modeling for global carbon exchange including feedbacks during the 19 th century, and since the argument of Callendar in 1938 that CO 2 greenhouse global warming was underway. Accelerated development of the science during the 1950s and 1960s led to the establishment in 1967 of the International Global Atmospheric Research Program and the creation in 1970 of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, followed by the landmark 1971 Study of Man s Impact on Climate (SMIC) conference of leading scientists which reported a danger of rapid and serious global change caused by humans and called for an organized research effort. In 1979, the first World Climate Conference was held in Geneva, and the World Climate Research Programme was launched to coordinate international research, at the same time as the U.S. National Academy of Sciences found it highly credible that doubling CO 2 will bring 1.5º- 4.5ºC global warming. 5 5 The information in the preceding three paragraphs has been taken from the American Institute of Physics Discovery of Global Warming: Timeline of Milestones. Available at 8

9 In 1988, the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess the science of climate change, and its impacts, mitigation and adaptation options, amongst other tasks. B. Climate Change Science Has Strengthened in Legally Significant Ways Since 1988 In its First Assessment Report in 1990, the IPCC said: Our judgment is that: Global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3ºC to 0.6ºC over the last 100 years, with the five global average warmest years being in the 1980s. Over the same period, global sea level has increased by 10-20cm. These increases have not been smooth in time or uniform over the globe. The size of this warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models, but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability. Thus, the observed increase could be largely due to this natural variability; alternatively this variability and other human factors could have offset a still larger human-induced greenhouse warming. The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more. 6 [Emphasis added] In its Second Assessment Report (SAR), in 1996, the IPCC, having noted that [c]onsiderable progress has been made in the understanding of climate change science since 1990 and new data and analyses have become available 7, essentially confirmed its 1990 judgment on temperature increase, increased the range of global sea level rise over the last 100 years to 10-25cm, and said that: Our ability to quantify the human influence on global climate is currently limited because the expected signal is still emerging from the noise of natural variability, and because there are uncertainties in key factors. These include the magnitude and patterns of long term natural variability and the time-evolving pattern of forcing by, and response to, changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and land surface changes. Nevertheless, the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate. 8 [Emphasis added]. In 2001, the IPCC published its Third Assessment Report (TAR) which indicated that since the SAR there was new evidence, improved understanding, and reduced uncertainty, supporting an updated conclusion; and for the first time, percentage confidence ranges were assigned to almost all the key findings and projections. The latter is of particular legal relevance as civil tribunals commonly require facts to be proved on the balance of probabilities, or on the preponderance of the evidence crudely, that a fact is 51% certain to be true. 6 IPCC First Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Executive Summary, at xii. 7 IPCC, Second Assessment Report, 1995, Summary for Policymakers, at 3. 8 IPCC, Second Assessment Report, 1995, Summary for Policymakers, at 5. 9

10 Some of the key findings are set out below, divided into those relating to increases in (1) temperature and (2) atmospheric concentrations of CO 2: 9 Key findings on temperature increases: The global average surface temperature (over land and sea) has increased over the 20 th century by about 0.6ºC, ±0.2ºC, with most of the warming occurring between and In the light of new evidence since the Second Assessment Report and taking into account remaining uncertainties, most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations (67-90% confidence). Globally the 1990s were the warmest decade since 1861 (90-99% confidence), including the Northern Hemisphere (67-90% confidence). The temperature increase in the 20 th century is the largest of any century in the last 1,000 years (67-90% confidence). Global ocean heat content has increased since the late 1950s, the period for which adequate observations of sub-surface ocean temperatures have been available. More than half of the increase in heat content has occurred in the upper 300m of the ocean, equivalent to a rate of temperature increase in this layer of about 0.04ºC/decade. Warm episodes of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon (which consistently affects regional variations of precipitation and temperature over much of the tropics, sub-tropics and some mid-latitude areas) have been more frequent, persistent, and intense since the mid-1970s, compared with the previous 100 years. Emissions of greenhouse gases (in particular, CO 2, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone and halocarbons) and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate. The global average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8ºC from This is much larger than the observed changes during the 20 th century and is without precedent during at least the last 10,000 years (90-99% confidence). Key findings on atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 : The atmospheric concentration of CO 2 has increased by 31% since 1750 from about 280 ppm in pre-industrial times to 365 ppm in This concentration has not been exceeded during the past 420,000 years and likely (i.e., 67-90% confidence) not during the past 20 million years. The current rate of increase is unprecedented, at least during the past 20,000 years. 9 IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.)] (Summary for Policymakers). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881 pp. Available at 10

11 The annual average concentration increase over the period was 0.4%, with an annual rate of concentration increase of 1.5 ppm over the period About 75% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere from were due to fossil fuel burning. Currently, the ocean and the land together take up about half of the anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. By 2100, models project atmospheric CO 2 concentrations of ppm for the range of illustrative scenarios: a % increase above the pre-industrial level of 280 ppm. After taking uncertainties, especially about the magnitude of climate feedbacks from the terrestrial biosphere, into account, the models project concentrations of ppm or a % increase. Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations at 450, 650 or 1,000 ppm would require global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions to drop below 1990 levels, within a few decades, about a century, or about two centuries, respectively, and continue to decrease steadily thereafter. Eventually CO 2 emissions would need to decline to a very small fraction of current emissions. We next show how increases in temperature and in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses affect coral reefs in general and the Belize Barrier Reef in particular, in the context of submitting that the requirements and supplementary factors in relation to listing the Reef as a World Heritage Site in Danger are satisfied. III. Satisfaction of Requirements and Supplementary Factors to List the Belize Barrier Reef as World Heritage in Danger The Belize Barrier Reef satisfies all four listing criteria and the supplementary factors in accordance with the Operational Guidelines and is thus eligible for inclusion on the List of World Heritage in Danger. This section of the petition below articulates the factors that satisfy each of these four requirements for the Belize Barrier Reef Site. A. The Belize Barrier Reef is on the World Heritage List [Operational Guidelines (80)(i)] The Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System was inscribed on the World Heritage Site List in 1996 under three natural criteria set out in the Operational Guidelines (40)(a): (ii) be an outstanding example representing significant on-going ecological and biological processes in the evolution and development of terrestrial, fresh water, coastal and marine ecosystems, and communities of plants and animals; (iii) contain superlative natural phenomena or areas of exceptional natural beauty and aesthetic importance; and (iv) contain the most important and significant natural habitats for in-situ conservation of biological diversity, including those containing threatened species of outstanding universal value from the point of view of science or conservation. The Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System is listed as a serial nomination consisting of seven sites. The seven sites are Bacalar Chico National Park and Marine Reserve, 11

12 Laughing Bird Caye National Park, Half Moon Caye Natural Monument, Blue Hole Natural Monument, Glovers Reef Marine Reserve, South Water Caye Marine Reserve, and Sapodilla Cayes Marine Reserve. 10 The Committee acknowledged that the seven sites illustrate the evolutionary history of reef development and are a significant habitat for threatened species, including marine turtles, manatees and the American marine crocodile. The Committee further recognized the Belize Barrier Reef as the largest barrier reef in the Northern Hemisphere and a classic example of reefs through fringing, barrier, and atoll reef types. 11 B. The Belize Barrier Reef is Threatened by Serious and Specific Danger [Operational Guidelines (80)(ii)] The compounding effects of climate change in conjunction with the other threats to the reef, both singly and in combination, represent specific and proven threats that create an ascertained danger defined by Operational Guidelines (83)(i) as specific and proven imminent threats. Global and site specific scientific studies demonstrate that the Belize Barrier Reef is faced with the specific and imminent threat of coral bleaching due to climate change. Further, the List of World Heritage in Danger also recognizes potential danger in Operational Guidelines 83(ii) where the property is faced with major threats which could have deleterious effects on its inherent characteristics. Numerous scientific studies on the coral reefs of the world, and particularly in Belize, show that climate change represents the greatest future threat to coral reefs. 12 Studies show that coral bleaching and disease are occurring in the Belize Barrier Reef, leading to changes in the composition of the ecosystem as well as to mortality of corals. 13 In addition, Operational Guidelines (85)(a) recommends that the Committee also take into account any cause of unknown or unexpected origin which endangers a cultural or natural property. Thus, even if the Committee does not find that climate change is an ascertained danger on the Belize Barrier Reef, the factual existence of coral bleaching and disease including degradation and mortality at the Site 14 warrant its listing under potential danger. The Committee should therefore list the Belize Barrier Reef as World Heritage in Danger on the basis of the ascertained danger of climate change impacts or, 10 UNEP, World Conservation Centre. Available at 11 UNEP, World Conservation Centre. Available at 12 See supra note See Aronson, Richard B. & William F. Precht, Ian G. Macintyre, and Thaddeus J.T. Murdoch. Coral bleach-out in Belize. Nature Vol.405. May 2000.; See also Kramer, Phillip and Patricia Richards Kramer, Ernesto Arias-Gonzalez, and Melanie McField, Chapter 16- Status of Coral Reefs of Northern Central America: Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador. Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2000; Kramer, Philip A. and Patricia Richards Kramer. Ecoregional Conservation Planning for the Mesoamerican Caribbean Reef (MACR), 14 (May 2002); Aronson, R.B & W.F. Precht, M.A. Toscano, and K.H. Koltes. The 1998 bleaching event and its aftermath on a coral reef in Belize. Marine Biology 141: (2002); Almada-Villela, Patricia & Melanie McField, Phillip Kramer, Patricia Richards Kramer, and Ernesto Arias-Gonzalez Chapter 16- Status of Coral Reefs of MesoAmerica: Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador. Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2002, 314; Aronson, RB & WF Precht, 2001, White-band disease and the changing face of Caribbean coral reefs, Hydrobiogia 460: Id. 12

13 alternatively, on the basis of potential danger due to present and future coral bleaching and its nexus to inevitable climate change. 1. Threats to the Belize Barrier Reef a. CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE OCEANS It is initially helpful to place the threat of climate change to the Belize Barrier Reef in the context of the implications of climate change for the oceans. In the words of UNESCO s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission 15 : [I]f the current trend of global warming continues, it has been determined that impacts will include: Sea level rise: As the sea warms up, the water expands and polar ice melts. Thus, coastal areas will be modified (with uncertain consequences) and the reduction of ice coverage in the polar regions could fuel the global warming process, as polar ice reflects much of the sun's radiance away from the earth, thus mediating the temperature of the atmosphere. Currents: As the oceans warm there will also be changes in their distribution of heat and salt concentrations that will alter the way the oceans flow around the globe, the results of which include interference with ecosystems and changes in weather patterns (temperatures and precipitation). Fisheries: The ocean s biological populations are sensitive to and dependent upon the physical processes of the ocean, and will be impacted by the changing of the currents and the predicted increase of extreme weather events. The collapse of the Peruvian fishery as a result of the severe 1998/99 El Niño event is an example of this. Coral reef ecosystems: Corals are susceptible to rising temperatures and die when the water becomes too warm, via a process called coral bleaching. Furthermore, coral reefs support an incredibly diverse ecosystem. Thus coral bleaching has implications that extend beyond the isolated deaths of corals, it jeopardizes the life of the entire ecosystem. Diseases: Warmer oceans create an increased opportunity for diseases such as cholera and shellfish poisoning, as well as optimize conditions for harmful algal blooms, which have impacts on both human and marine life. 13 UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission. Available at 13

14 b. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CORAL BLEACHING: In the Status of the Coral Reefs of the World: 2002 report 16, the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN) concluded that [t]he increasing evidence is that coral reefs are bearing the brunt of Global Climate Change in the marine environment and the prognosis for reefs... is grim. 17 The report further stresses that [t]he major concern is that we may be in a period of accelerating ocean warming and more frequent coral bleaching events that could cause serious damage to reefs, not in decade scales but in the next few years. Support for the report indicates a strong need for remediation strategies and that this position is now the consensus position of most coral reef scientists and managers around the world. 18 i. Effects of Coral Bleaching Global climate change is thought by many leading scientists to be the major cause of numerous massive coral bleaching events. 19 Coral bleaching occurs when corals lose their symbiont algae, zooxanthellae, which cause the corals to turn white as the skeleton reflects through the tissue. The photosynthetic zooxanthellae are necessary to provide energy and oxygen for the growth and formation of the calcium carbonate skeleton that forms the coral colony. Coral bleaching is a response of the coral to environmental stress. 20 These stresses include changes in temperature, salinity, light, sedimentation, aerial exposure, and pollutants. The most common cause of coral bleaching is a response to higher temperatures and/or higher incident solar radiation. 21 As a likely response to climate change, coral bleaching has become more frequent in coral reefs around the world over the past two decades. 22 While some corals can recover from bleaching events over time, prolonged or repeated bleaching episodes will eventually lead to coral mortality. 23 Recent modeling estimates show that an increase in mean sea surface temperature of only 2ºF (1ºC) could cause global destruction of coral reef ecosystems 24, including the Belize Barrier Reef. Studies in the Mesoamerican Caribbean Reef (MACR), the 1,000 km reef system along the coastlines of Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras to which the Belize Barrier Reef belongs, predict that future bleaching events are perhaps the greatest future threat to the eco-region s coral reefs. 25 The study determined that the frequency and intensity of 16 Wilkinson, Coral Bleaching, supra note 3, at Id. 18 Id. 19 See e.g. Pomerance, Rafe. Coral Bleaching, Coral Mortality, and Global Climate Change Report presented to the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force. (5 March 1999). 20 Brown, B. and J. Ogden. Coral bleaching. Scientific American, (January 1993). 21 Glynn, P.W. Coral-Reef Bleaching-Ecological Perspectives. Coral Reefs 12(1):1-17 (March 1993). 22 Id. 23 Aronson, Richard B. & William F. Precht, Ian G. Macintyre, and Thaddeus J.T. Murdoch. Coral bleach-out in Belize. Nature Vol.405. May [hereinafter Aronson, Coral bleach-out] 24 Hoegh-Guldberg, O. Climate Change: Coral bleaching and the future of the world s coral reefs. Marine and Freshwater Research 50: (1999). 25 See e.g. Kramer, Philip A. and Patricia Richards Kramer. Ecoregional Conservation Planning for the Mesoamerican Caribbean Reef (MACR), 14 (May 2002) [hereinafter MACR]. 14

15 disturbances to the region s reefs have recently increased, including several reefs affected by repeated and/or coinciding events. 26 ii. Effects of Rising Atmospheric CO 2 Besides the effects of increasing temperatures, scientists have indicated that the rise in atmospheric CO 2 alone represents a significant threat to coastal marine ecosystems by reducing the ability of marine organisms to replace themselves. One study concludes that regardless of any remaining disagreements over the magnitude and importance of climate change, the continued rise in atmospheric CO 2, itself, will have direct and dramatic effect on marine ecosystems. 27 Rising CO 2 levels will cause decreased carbonate saturation in the ocean that will inhibit calcareous organisms, including corals, from being able to deposit calcium carbonate. Without this reef-building ability, corals will not be able to replace themselves and as water levels rise due to increased sea level, corals will basically drown. High CO 2 partial pressures may also physiologically impair some coral species by causing intracellular and blood-acid base imbalance, which may decrease growth rates or cause reduction in reproductive potential. Further, rising CO 2 may also effect the coral reef community composition within the ecosystem by shifting the latitudinal and vertical distributions of species, which could result in the decline of some fisheries. The study states that [d]ecreased ph and carbonate saturation state in the upper ocean waters are a chemical certainty with negative ecological impacts that are only a question of time and scale. Regardless of any dramatic changes in global CO 2 emissions, the already measurable changes in CO 2 and carbonate saturation rate will continue to grow in severity, having negative consequences for the marine environment and particularly coral reefs. 28 Projections for increases in CO 2 over the next fifty years indicate that concentrations will exceed those experienced by corals for the last half million years. 29 iii. Effects of the 1998 Mass Bleaching Event on Coral Reefs in Belize In 1998, severe bleaching of corals occurred worldwide, with a 16% loss in the world s reefbuilding corals, after the highest sea surface temperatures on record. 30 The high temperatures were related to both El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and to global warming. 31 One report concluded that only anthropogenic global warming could have induced such extensive coral bleaching simultaneously throughout the disparate reef regions of the world. 32 In Belize, the results were catastrophic. The 1998 event caused mass mortality of scleractinian (hard) corals on Belize lagoon reefs, which was the first time that a coral 26 Id. 27 Seibel, Brad A. and Victoria J. Fabry. Chapter 8: Marine Biotic Response to Elevated Carbon Dioxide. Advances in Applied Biodiversity Science. No. 4, (August 2003). 28 Id. at Wilkinson, Coral Bleaching supra note 3, at Kramer, Phillip and Patricia Richards Kramer, Ernesto Arias-Gonzalez, and Melani McField, Chapter 16- Status of Coral Reefs of Northern Central America: Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador. Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2000, Pomerance, Rafe. Coral Bleaching, Coral Mortality, and Global Climate Change Report presented to the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force (5 March 1999). 32 Id. 15

16 population in the Caribbean has collapsed completely from bleaching. 33 Temperatures at the reef were historically rarely higher than 29ºC but exceeded 30ºC during the summer of A study of sediment cores extracted from below the reef showed that in the past 3,000 years, no other events of this nature have occurred on the reef. 35 The combination of the 1998 bleaching event followed by Hurricane Mitch, which hit the reef in October of 1998, resulted in devastating loss of corals, including 50% reduction in living coral cover in some locations. Massive bleaching occurred on both the forereef and lagoon. While most of the forereef corals recovered with some partial mortality, the reefs in the central Belize lagoon experienced heavy mortality. 36 Until the 1998 event, most corals in Belize had recovered from smaller bleaching events, including an event in Bleaching in 1998 had a more severe impact with a lack of recovery of affected corals because the high sea surface temperatures and amount of irradiance persisted at elevated levels for a longer period than in previous years, months as opposed to days. From late August through October 1998, temperatures remained high enough for a sufficient period to lead to coral mortality. 38 The 50% reduction in live coral cover that occurred in Belize between 1997 and 1999 is still evident. Over the past few years, the affected corals have been colonized by algae rather than growth of new corals. In parts of southern Belize, coral losses were as high as 75%. 39 The most abundant coral on this section of the reef before the event, the lettuce coral Agaricia tenuifolia, experienced almost complete mortality at all depths. One study of the coral bleach-out in Belize concluded that the results justify concerns that climate change is degrading coral reef ecosystems. 40 In addition, the 1998 coral bleaching event altered the benthic community composition of the Belize Barrier Reef ecosystem. 41 After the mass mortality of corals in 1998, the grazing sea urchin Echinometra virdis limited the growth of macroalgae in the open spaces. The Agaricia tenuifolia which was almost completely wiped out, although prone to bleaching, has the ability to re-establish in such open spaces in the absence of macroalgae as it can colonize disturbed reef surfaces; however, the open space allowed the encrusting sponge Chondrilla cf. nucula to opportunistically increase, taking over the available spaces and preventing new coral growth. 42 Observations have been made that this report from Aronson only refers to the reefs of a particular faro and is not characteristic of the entire reef. Climate change not only leads to mortality of corals but also to decreased rates of coral accretion. 43 A study of the reef after the 1998 bleaching event revealed that [i]f corals are 33 Aronson, Coral bleach-out, supra note Id. 35 Id. 36 Id. 37 Id. 38 Aronson, R.B & W.F. Precht, M.A. Toscano, and K.H. Koltes. The 1998 bleaching event and its aftermath on a coral reef in Belize. Marine Biology 141: (2002). [hereinafter Aronson, 1998 bleaching event]. 39 Almada-Villela, supra note 4, at Aronson, Coral bleach-out, supra note Aronson, 1998 bleaching event, supra note Id. 43 Smith, S.V. and Buddemeier, R.W Global change and coral reef ecosystems. Annual Review of Ecological Systems 23:

17 unable to recover substantially, vertical accretion will be slowed or possibly arrested over the next several decades, at a time when sea-level rise is expected to accelerate due to global warming. 44 While the bleaching event in 1998 to date was the most severe and widespread on record, it was not an anomaly. Between 1998 and 2002, sixteen countries or territories experienced a total of seventy bleaching records. 45 In 2002, there were over 440 reports of bleaching to the comprehensive coral bleaching database ReefBase, 46 including major coral bleaching at the Great Barrier Reef in Australia where almost 60% of the total reef area was affected by bleaching. 47 The 1998 global bleaching event, which the corals in the Belize Barrier Reef have yet to fully recover from, and the 2002 major bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef are alarm calls for the future of the coral reefs as we know them. 48 iv. Climate Change is Predicted to Increase the Frequency and Intensity of Damaging ENSO Events and Hurricanes The MACR study specifically recognizes the critical role that global climate change will play in influencing the frequency and intensity of El Niño-La Niña bleaching-related events and hurricanes, as well as in potential modifications to current and wind patterns. 49 Many late season hurricanes hit Belize, causing coral damage and mortality. 50 In addition, the region has experienced recurrent bouts of coral bleaching throughout the 1980s and 90s, which have resulted in major changes in the coral populations. 51 The combination of storms and bleaching events can be devastating to corals. For example, bleaching events in conjunction with major hurricanes, Hurricane Mitch in 1998, Hurricane Keith in 2000, and Hurricane Iris in 2001, have led to the destruction of up to 75% of the corals in Belize. 52 In 2001, after a collaboration of regional scientists conducted coral reef surveys of the entire MACR from Mexico to Honduras, concern was raised about low coral cover at many sites, particularly in the sub-regions of Belize. 53 Coral cover of 25-30% would be considered good for the Caribbean; the 2001 survey observed only 12.9% average coral cover across the study sites in Belize. 54 v. Predictions for Future Climate Change Impacts Models for the next 100 years predict that bleaching will become more frequent and severe, seriously damaging coral reefs, as warming continues. 55 The Earth s climate warmed 0.6ºC over the last 100 years. There have been two main warming periods, first from and then 1976-present. The rate of warming since 1976 is doubles that of the first period 44 Aronson, 1998 bleaching event, supra note Wilkinson, supra note 3, at Available at ReefBase is a comprehensive database of records of coral bleaching containing more than 3,800 records, starting with some records from as far back as Wilkinson, Coral Bleaching supra note Id. at MACR, supra note 22, at Alamda-Villela, supra note 4, at Id. at Id. at 303, Id. at Id. at 307, Kramer, supra note

18 and exceeds that of any time within the past 1,000 years. 56 The 1990s was the warmest decade on record with a series of major El Niño events. 57 The temperature of tropical oceans has increased by 1-2ºC in the last 100 years. In the next 50 years, the frequency and duration of ENSO events is also likely to increase. 58 Computer models predict that unless global warming is stopped, bleaching events will become more intense and frequent, possibly leading to a complete global loss of corals in most areas by By the year 2030, bleaching events are predicted to occur annually in most tropical oceans; however the Caribbean reefs could be one of the first regions to experience annual bleaching events by the year As the frequency and intensity of bleaching events and hurricanes increases with global warming, the corals in the Belize Barrier Reef will be devastated without time to recover between more frequent bleaching. Scientists further predict that coral reefs worldwide will experience reductions in coral cover and local extinctions of coral species that could result in the total extinction of some coral species that have narrow distribution ranges. 60 Therefore, if climate change is not attenuated and the severity of the impacts of climate change at the Belize Barrier Reef is not mitigated, the unique and diverse ecosystem of these sites will be degraded and potentially destroyed. vi. Impacts of Coral Bleaching/Climate Change on the Belize World Heritage Site Within the Belize Barrier Reef World Heritage Site, South Water Caye Marine Reserve and Laughing Bird Caye National Park are the sites most susceptible to future bleaching events. Sapodilla Cayes Marine Reserve is susceptible to coral bleaching and experienced greater than 50% mortality during the 1998 bleaching event. Glovers Reef Marine Reserve has experienced damage from bleaching and is susceptible to future bleaching events. Half Moon Caye Natural Monument and Blue Hole Natural Monument are susceptible to coral beaching and hurricanes but have so far only experienced moderate reef damage due to bleaching, and Bacalar Chico National Park is also susceptible to future bleaching events. 61 c. ADDITIONAL THREATS TO THE REEF AND THE COMPOUNDING EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE i. OVERFISHING a. Reduction in Fish Populations The coral reefs in Belize provide an important support for many commercial and artisanal fisheries, as well as aquaculture. Belize has the highest fish diversity in the MACR; 56 Walther, Gian-Reto & Eric Post, Peter Convey, Annette Menzel, Camille Parmesan, Trevor J.C. Beebee, Jean-Marc Fromentin, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, and Franz Bairlein. Ecological Responses to Recent Climate Change. Nature 416, (March 2002). 57 Almada-Villela, supra note 4 at Walther, supra note Hoegh-Guldberg, O. Climate Change: Coral bleaching and the future of the world s coral reefs. Marine and Freshwater Research 50: (1999). 60 Wilkinson, Coral Bleaching supra note 3, at Id. 18

19 the country s commercial fishery is also expanding. 62 Artisanal fishing is substantial, and many communities have very few alternatives to fishing. Due to better technologies and increased demands, fishing pressures are increasing for targeted species including snapper, grouper, conch, and lobster. Over-exploitation of sharks and natural stocks of shrimp is definite, as well as local depletions of popular aquarium fish taken by collecting. 63 One example of the evidence of over-fishing in Belize includes the presence of more grazing in open areas by the E.virdis sea urchin due to reductions in its predators by overfishing. 64 Another example is the demonstrated variance in mean size and number of different fished species in MPAs versus nearby fished areas particularly spearfishing and targeted hook-and-line spawning aggregations; with greater mean size and number are inside the reserve Some studies suggest that the ecological extinctions and loss of ecosystem function caused by overfishing are the biggest threats to marine environments, weakening marine areas to the level that they are made susceptible to other stresses such as pollution and climate change. 65 According to FishBase and the IUCN, Belize has 554 marine and 237 reefassociated fish species. Of these species, 21 are threatened and 14 are protected under existing treaties and conventions. 66 b. Loss of Fish Spawning Aggregations Many of the fish spawning aggregation sites in Belize have now become inactive or reduced due to overfishing practices. 67 Fishing pressure is intense near spawning aggregations because they are usually located at or near recognizable cayes and atolls, and the aggregations make it possible to harvest an enormous number of fish at one time. However, this practice can remove an entire reproductively active fish population for miles. The number of aggregating Nassau Groupers (Epinephelus striatus), for example, has been depleted by 90% in Belize waters due to overfishing. 68 Belize established regulations in 2002 to protect 11 spawning sites and created a four-month closed season for grouper fishing; however, despite attempts to involve local fishers in the conservation efforts, the spawning sites are still at risk due to a lack of enforcement and awareness of the protective regulations. 69 Continued protection of grouper aggregation sites is needed for long-term conservation, as the Nassau Grouper is listed on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Animals IUCN, Fisheries Department- Hol Chan Marine Reserve. Conservation Modules: Why Local Conservation Issues in Belize?. Belize (2002). [hereinafter IUCN, Local Conservation] 63 Id. 64 Almada-Villela, supra note 4 at 306, , Pew Oceans Commission. America s Living Oceans: Chartering A Course for Sea Change. A Report to the Nation: Recommendations for a New National Ocean Policy (May 2003). 66 Almada-Villela, supra note Id. at Id. 69 National Geographic News. Belize, UN try to save reefs and help fishers Available at 70 Almada-Villela, supra note 4, at

20 c. Increased Growth of MacroAlgae Maintaining healthy fish populations is also essential to control the growth of macroalgae on coral reefs, which allows open spaces for new coral recruitment and prevents the algae from out competing corals for space and prohibiting larvae from settling. 71 Many reefs in the Caribbean, including the Belize Barrier Reef, have experienced substantial increases in macroalgal abundances over the last two decades which represent a phase shift from coral to algal dominated communities. 72 Algae are now dominant on the patch reefs, for example, at Glovers Reef World Heritage Site in Belize because of the reduced numbers of herbivorous fish that would otherwise control the growth of macroalgae by grazing. 73 This may be an oversimplification since overfishing is but one of the factors; there is a complex relationship between nitrification, herbivory and coral disease. In general, coral mortality is often followed by overgrowth of macroalgae because reduced populations of herbivores are not able to keep up with the rapid pace of the algal growth. 74 Some of the algal dominance is also attributed to the Caribbean-wide die-off due to disease in of the blackspined sea urchin, Diadema antillarum, which is one of the most important herbivores in the reef system. 75 d. Illegal Fishing Although Belize has laws designed to manage marine fisheries, including prohibitions on fishing with scuba gear, the use of nets along reefs, the use of traps outside reefs, taking conch or lobster below the legal size limit, and fishing outside closed seasons, these laws are ineffective because they are not adequately enforced. One of the biggest challenges in Belize is the need for improved enforcement and the necessary infrastructure to monitor the large reef area to reduce illegal fishing. 76 For many years, illegal fishing occurred near Sapodilla Cayes Marine Reserve and Glovers Reef Marine Reserve by fishermen from Guatemala and Honduras. Also, Mexican fisherman often illegally fish in Belize waters near Bacalar Chico National Park and Marine Reserve and have for many years. 77 e. Impacts of Overfishing on the Belize World Heritage Site Overfishing in and around the World Heritage Sites is a major problem at Glovers Reef Marine Reserve, South Water Caye Marine Reserve, Sapodilla Cayes Marine Reserve, Laughing Bird Caye National Park, and Bacalar Chico National Park and Marine Reserve. At South Water Caye, fish landings have severely declined and many historic spawning sites are now inactive. At Bacalar Chico, as fishermen have become associated with the tourism industry, fishing pressures will most likely continue increasing without the 71 Id. at Williams, I.D. and N.V.C. Polumin. Large-scale associations between macroalgal cover and grazer biomass on middepth reefs in the Caribbean. Coral Reefs : Almada-Villela, supra note 4, at Hughes, TP Catastrophes, phase shifts, and large-scale degradation of a Caribbean coral reef. Science 265: Aronson, 1998 bleaching event, supra note Id. at UNEP, World Conservation Centre. Available at 20

21 enforcement or implementation of stricter regulations and the personnel to enforce those regulations. 78 ii. POLLUTION Pollution from land based sources constitutes a major problem on Belize reefs. Nutrient enrichment likely occurs on Belize reefs due to the banana and citrus plantation agrochemical run-off of pesticides and fertilizers. 79 This run-off results in decreased live coral cover and increases in algae and sponges that smother the reef. 80 Another major problem is pollution from sewage from tourist resorts and residential and urban centers. 81 Inadequate sewage disposal causes nutrient enrichment on coral reef ecosystems, seagrasses, and mangroves as well as increases the growth of algae and decreases fish populations. Additionally, at least one human gut bacteria species, Serratia marescens, is implicated in White Pox, a lethal disease of Elkhorn Coral, Acropora palmata. Inadequate solid waste disposal and introduction of industrial effluents cause contaminate the water, introduce toxins to marine life, destroy corals and seagrass, decrease fish populations, and increase mortality in species including sea turtles and sea birds. 82 Chemical effluent from industries as well as some biocides may result in immunosuppression to some forms of marine life. 83 These may originate from agriculture and industry as noted above; as well as golf course management in close proximity to reefs. 84 a. Impacts of Pollution on the Belize World Heritage Site Pollution is a primary concern at Glovers Reef Marine Reserve where nutrients, pesticides, and chemicals enter from the Gulf of Honduras. Excess nutrients and pollution from agriculture is also a problem at South Water Caye Marine Reserve, Laughing Bird Caye National Park, and Sapodilla Cayes Marine Reserve. Nutrients, sediments, and pesticides from agriculture and development are of particular concern at Sapodilla Cayes Marine Reserve. Bacalar Chico National Park and Marine Reserve has problems with pollution from the Chetumal Bay, septic system seepage on Ambergis Caye, and coastal and inland drainages. 85 iii. CORAL DISEASES The cumulative effects of climate change and other anthropogenic stresses are further linked to the emergence of new marine diseases. Such stresses weaken the resistance of the host coral. They have also led to increased frequencies of opportunistic diseases that 78 MACR, supra note UNEP, supra note IUCN, Local Conservation, supra note UNEP, supra note IUCN, Fisheries Department- Hol Chan Marine Reserve. Conservation Modules: Negative Impacts of Habitat Destruction and Human Impact. Belize (2002). [hereinafter IUCN, Negative impacts] 83 De Swart,R.L., Ross,P.S., Vos,J.G., and Osterhaus,A.D.M.E Impaired immunity in harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) fed environmentally contaminated herring. Vet.Q. 18: s127-s De Swart,R.L., Ross,P.S., Vos,J.G., and Osterhaus,A.D.M.E Impaired immunity in harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) fed environmentally contaminated herring. Vet.Q. 18: s127-s128; Swancar, Amy, 1996, Water Quality, Pesticide Occurrence, and Effects of Irrigation With Reclaimed Water at Golf Courses in Florida: USGS Water-Resources Investigations Report MACR, supra note

22 kill corals and other marine species. 86 For example, the coral species that once dominated Belize reefs, staghorn coral (Acropora cervicornis), was destroyed by white band coral disease in the early 1980s. 87 After the 1995 bleaching event, many bleached corals, particularly Montastrea annularis complex, became infected with black band coral disease. 88 The large proportion of Montastrea annularis complex colonies dying from disease in the shallow reefs of Belize is of particular concern to scientists. 89 Following the coral bleaching event in 1998, there was a high incidence of black band disease on Belize shallow reefs and white band disease on Belize forereefs. 90 Although coral disease rates are relatively low in Belize compared to the rest of the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System, Ambergis Caye and other sites in Belize have up to 12% of their coral colonies infected. 91 a. Impacts of Coral Disease on the Belize World Heritage Site Higher incidences of coral disease at the World Heritage Site are a particular concern at Bacalar Chico National Park and Marine Reserve and Sapodilla Cayes Marine Reserve. 92 iv. INCREASED COASTAL DEVELOPMENT/TOURISM a. Poor Land Use Practices In addition to overfishing, aquaculture problems, and climate phenomena, the GEF/World Bank Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System Initiative identified problems in Belize with excessive and/or inappropriate coastal/island developments, inland resource use, land use, industrial development, port management, shipping, and navigation practices. Studies of the reef indicate that it will be necessary to implement sound management to improve water quality by controlling coastal developments. 93 Removal of mangroves for housing and tourist development projects has resulted in declines in fisheries including lobster, reduced protection from storms and hurricanes, reduced natural pollution mitigation, sediment runoff, and degradation of coral reef ecosystems and associated endangered species and marine life. 94 Other recognized problems in the area include alteration of habitat by hotel and marine construction, erosion of the shoreline by removal of seagrasses, mangroves, and vegetation, and siltation problems on coral reefs from dredging and sand mining. 95 Poor land-use practices have amplified the impacts of hurricanes on the reef as well by causing massive amount of sediments to flow into the coastal waters. The added sedimentation increases the stress on corals during extreme ENSO events. Sedimentation is hazardous to reef-building corals because it interferes with their feeding ability, decreases their access to the light, and may carry pathogens or absorbed chemicals Harvell et. al., Emergence of New Marine Diseases- Climate Links and Anthropogenic Factors, Science Vol. 285 (September 1999). 87 Aronson, Coral bleach-out, supra note Kramer, supra note 28, at Id. 90 Id. 91 Almada-Villela, supra note 4, at MACR, supra note Almada-Villela, supra note 4, at IUCN, Local Conservation, supra note UNEP, supra note Cole, Julia. Global Change: Dishing the Dirt on Coral Reefs. Nature 421: (February 2003). 22

23 b. Tourism Recently the rapidly growing tourism industry focused on the coast has become the major economic force in Belize. Tourism and export of marine products are dramatically increasing. 97 In addition to the pollution from increased tourist development on the coast, tourists cause physical damage to fragile coral reef ecosystems through increased dive activity on popular dive sites, anchor damage from dive boats and yachts, and boat groundings from collisions and propellers. 98 One of the most serious problems facing the Belize Barrier Reef is the increasing number of cruise ships that now enter the area. The Belize Cruise Tourism Policy, established by the Ministry of Tourism and the Belize Tourism Board under the Hotels and Accommodation Act of 1997, does recognize environmental concerns to prevent, control, and mitigate environmental degradation from cruise ships, providing carrying capacity limits at sites and prohibiting waste disposal and unauthorized anchoring in Belize waters. 99 Between 2001 and 2002, there was a five-fold increase in the number of international arrivals by cruise ship to Belize, exceeding the policy limits. In 2002, 319,690 tourists arrived in Belize by international cruise ship alone. 100 The Belize Tourism Board revised the cruise ship policy in 2003, raising the limit of cruise passengers allowed to disembark from 3,000 to 8,000 per day. 101 The Projected cruise arrivals for 2004 include 415 calls with a combined capacity for 1,010,922 passengers; 80% capacity was used for more reliable actual projected visitation, yielding 808,738 potential arrivals 102 However, cruise ships are notorious for increasing pollution and environmental damage in marine ecosystems and repeated violations of environmental laws. Presently hundreds of people visit sites such as Goff s Caye and Hol Chan Shark/Ray Alley on a daily basis. Additionally, in a one-week voyage a cruise ship generates an estimated 210,000 gallons of sewage, 1,000,000 gallons of gray water (which contains detergents, cleaners, oil and grease, metals, pesticides, medical and dental waste, as well as significant concentrations of priority pollutants ), 110 gallons of photochemicals, 5 gallons of dry cleaning waste, 8 tons of garbage, and 25,000 gallons of oily bilge water. 103 Cruise ship waste kills sensitive coral reef ecosystems, and in areas of high cruise ship traffic, reefs have been rapidly declining. Cruise ship anchors, chains, and propellers also crush reefs. Damage from cruise ships impacts increased growth of algae and decreases populations of fish, sea turtles, and birds. Emissions from cruise ships add to the global climate change problem, as the exhaust from one cruise ship each day is equivalent to that of 12,000 automobiles and on-ship waste incinerators release toxic chemicals into the air Almada-Villela, supra note 4, at IUCN, Local Conservation, supra note Belize Cruise Tourism Policy. Available at Belize Tourist Arrival Statistics. Available at Belize Tourism Board, Belize Cruise Ship Policy BTB official website: travelbelize.org 103 Schmidt, Kira. Bluewater Network. Cruising for Trouble: Stemming the Tide of Cruise Ship Pollution. (March 2000). 104 Oceana. Stop Cruise Pollution: Protect our Oceans. Cruise Ship pollution is a BIG problem. Available at 23

24 c. Impacts of Increased Coastal Development/Tourism on the Belize World Heritage Site The impacts of increased tourism are of primary concern at Half Moon Caye Natural Monument and Blue Hole Natural Monument. In these areas, coral reefs have been damaged by divers as well as boats. At times, heavy visitation may also beset South Water Caye. Many of the pollution problems at Sapodilla Cayes Marine Reserve are due to poor land use practices and excessive and poorly-controlled visitation, arriving in ever-larger boats. The main threats at Bacalar Chico National Park and Marine Reserve are due to tourism impacts, urbanization, and land conversion. 105 v. MULTIPLE THREATS MAKE THE REEF LESS RESILIENT TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS In Belize, the cumulative effects of overfishing, pollution, increased coastal and tourism development and visitation, and increased coral diseases will weaken the health of the reef system, making it more susceptible to degradation from the impacts of global climate change. Several studies indicate that climate change can reinforce the detrimental effects of human exploitation and mismanagement and push species and ecosystem tolerances over their limits. 106 Overfishing practices, for example, have truncated the age structure of the population and thereby increased vulnerability to the adverse effects of prolonged warming. 107 The ability of corals to recover after bleaching damage depends on their ability to recruit, adapt, and persist, and whether there are repetitions of similar disturbance events. The added human stress from these other threats to coral reefs will impede recovery of the corals from bleaching events. 108 Over the past 200 years, the resilience of reefs to withstand stress from bleaching has decreased due to the negative impacts mainly from overfishing and pollution. A forum of fifteen of the world s leading researchers met in Australia in October 2002 and concluded that if current trends continue, coral reefs will only further decline, with accelerating loss of economic and biodiversity value. The forum resolved that [i]t is necessary to re-build the resilience of reefs in the face of increasing global climate change and the accompanying ocean warming Threats to the Belize Barrier Reef Amount to Ascertained and Potential Dangers The ascertained danger of the impacts arising from global climate change, the additional threats to the reef system, and the combined effects of these factors, qualify the listing of the Belize Barrier Reef as World Heritage in Danger. Operational Guidelines (81) states that properties can be listed when at least one of the criteria for either ascertained or potential danger is met. The Belize Barrier Reef satisfies all three criteria defined for ascertained danger and at least two of the four criteria that indicate potential danger. 105 MACR supra note Walther, supra note Id. 108 Almada-Villela, supra note 4, at Wilkinson, supra note 3, at

25 a. Ascertained Danger The Belize Barrier Reef is faced with specific and proven imminent danger: i. Operational Guidelines (83)(i)(a) The Belize Barrier Reef has experienced serious declines in endangered and threatened species as well as other species of outstanding universal value which the property was legally established to protect. In particular, the Belize Barrier reef has experienced a 50% reduction in live coral cover. 110 These declines are due to both human exacerbated natural factors including hurricanes and ENSO events as well as the man-made factors of pollution, overfishing, increased development, the rise of mass tourism, and the impacts of global climate change which include coral bleaching, rising atmospheric CO 2, new emerging coral diseases, and increased severity of damaging storms and ENSO events. ii. Operational Guidelines (83)(i)(b) The total amounts of the coral cover and species loss that have been caused by the threats to the Belize Barrier Reef have resulted and will continue to result in severe deterioration of the natural beauty and scientific value of the reef system. iii. Operational Guidelines (83)(i)(c) Human encroachment on the boundaries of the Belize Barrier Reef sites in the form of invading pollution run-off, impacts of increased tourists in the area, and illegal fishing, for example, all threaten the integrity of the reef system. b. Potential Danger The Belize Barrier Reef is faced with major threats which could have deleterious effects on its inherent characteristics: i. Operational Guidelines (83)(ii)(b) Potential danger includes the threat of a planned resettlement or development project within the property or so situated that the impacts threaten the property. Poor land-use practices and new tourist developments, including hotels and marinas, have created pollution problems that are impairing coral reefs. Further planned development projects will continue to add to the degradation of the reef system. In particular, the policy of Belize to encourage an increasing number of cruise ships to this area will have a serious impact on the future health of the reefs. It will render the reefs less resilient to the impacts of global climate change, reducing their ability to support the communities that depend upon them for food, income and survival in times of severe weather. 110 Almada-Villela, supra note 4, at

26 ii. Operational Guidelines (83)(ii)(d) Though the management plan for the Belize Barrier Reef is lacking and inadequate, a gap analysis of the national protected area system, including the MPA network, is currently underway as a component of the National Protected Area Policy and System Plan project. As part of this process, resiliency of MPAs to climate change is being incorporated. Support and funding, however, will be required for the implementation of the resulting recommendations of this analysis. 111 The management plan needs to include better measures designed to protect the reef system from the dangers of global climate change. Although the severity of the impacts of climate change are not certain, the Belize Barrier Reef should be managed according to an adaptive management plan to achieve the most effective policy design in the face of these uncertain threats. 112 Adaptive management effectively deals with uncertainty in the management of renewable resources, such as fisheries and wildlife, by incorporating the predicted impacts over time into present policy choices. 113 Further, known threats to the reef, such as overfishing, pollution, and coral disease, should be minimized to both mitigate deterioration of the reef as well as to increase its resiliency to the impacts of climate change. In the following section, we address how the management plan for the Belize Barrier Reef can be improved to deal with climate change and other threats to the reef. C. Major Operations are Necessary for the Conservation of the Belize Barrier Reef [Operational Guidelines (80)(iii)] Major conservation operations are necessary for the conservation of the Belize Barrier Reef both locally at the World Heritage Site to make the reef system more resilient to global climate change and globally to reduce the emissions of green house gases that lead to global climate change. 1. Program for Corrective Measures at the Belize Barrier Reef The procedure for inclusion of properties on the List of World Heritage in Danger in Operational Guidelines (86) requires the Committee to develop, and adopt, as far as possible, in consultation with the State party concerned, a program for corrective measures. In addition Operational Guidelines (84) requires that the factor or factors which are threatening the integrity of the property must be those which are amenable to correction by human action. Although climate change cannot be reversed in the short term, there are corrective measures that can be taken to help mitigate the adverse effects that it will cause. The following are suggestions that the Committee should consider in its program for corrective action for the Belize Barrier Reef: 111 Executive Summary, Work Plan for the Formulation of Belize's Protected Areas Policy and System Plan, Task Force on Belize's Protected Areas Policy and System Plan, Walters, Carl. Adaptive Management of Renewable Resources. Macmillan Publishing Company, New York Id. 26

27 a. Enhance Protection From Other Threats to the Reef System Health so that Corals will be More Resilient to Climate Change Better protection of existing marine protected areas 114 (MPAs) from threats to coral reefs, including overfishing, pollution, disease, coastal development, and tourism impacts, should be implemented so that corals will be more resilient to climate change and have a better chance to recover from post-bleaching events. 115 Threats assessments have recently been carried out for the three atolls and the barrier reefs system in an effort to focus management efforts toward reduction of these identified threats. 116 Furthermore, the CZM program initiated in Belize in 1993 has supported the planning and expansion of the national MPA network and the introduction of an integrated management program that addresses landbased impacts on the Belize reef system, including the preparation of development guidelines for the cayes. The goal of this management approach is " to support the allocation, sustainable use and planned development of Belize's coastal resources through increased knowledge and building of alliances, for the benefit of all Belizeans and the global community." The government of Belize established the Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute in 1998 which is the focal point for implementing this approach, working in partnership with its sister agencies, NGOs and the private sector. The Strategy developed, however, needs support and funding to achieve the desired effect of mitigating the threats to the World Heritage Site in particular and to the Belize reef system in general. 117 Current management of MPAs in Belize is deemed moderately satisfactory as compared to the rest of the MACR by the Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2002 report. However, the report recognizes that management in Belize is not as effective because Belize has the legal and institutional policy framework to manage coral reefs, but may lack the long-term funding for enforcement and monitoring of the extensive system of MPAs. 118 Despite legal protections of the Word Heritage Site, including for example some no-take areas and other fishing restrictions, Belize lacks the necessary infrastructure to provide proper monitoring and enforcement of its laws over the large reef area. 119 Thus, [i]n light of recent changes and future global threats to the MACR, sound local and regional management is urgently required. 120 Belize also relies heavily on the support of NGOs and the international government for protection of its reefs. 121 The 2003 Recommendations of the 5th IUCN World Parks Congress See IUCN World Commission on Protected Areas (WCPA)- Marine. Available at See supra Discussion of resiliency of coral reefs against climate change at notes (David Wilkie, Wildlife Conservation Society, Workshop Reports "Belize Threats Assessment and Mapping - Highlights for Glover's Reef, Turneffe Islands, LIghthouse Reef and the Barrier Reef", 2004.) 117 The National Integrated Coastal Zone Management Strategy for Belize, CZMAI, MACR supra note 23, at See supra notes 74-75, discussion of illegal fishing in Belize waters. 120 MACR supra note 23, at Almada-Villela, supra note 4 at Recommendations of the of Vth IUCN World Parks Congress. Climate Change and Protected Areas Available at [hereinafter WPC Recommendations] 27

28 (WPC Recommendations) specifically recognizes the need to incorporate climate change impacts into both local and global protected area conservation strategies. The WPC Recommendations acknowledge that: Ecosystems and species will change as climate changes, requiring new protected areas and new management strategies in existing protected areas. Polar ice and glaciers are melting; sea levels are rising. Climate change is exacerbating the problems of invasive alien species and diseases, displacing native species. In combination with growing human populations, human settlement patterns and land use changes, climate change is exerting new demands on limited resources. These changes will require new resources for protected areas to meet their goal of conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services. The Committee should also support and expand many of the existing marine protection efforts in Belize. A small-scale reef restoration project is planned for Laughing Bird Caye National Park. Since 1997, all of the elkhorn, A. palmata, coral has been decimated. Disease, elevated temperatures, and hurricane have destroyed the once abundant populations. Elkhorn coral is one of the faster growing species (5-6 inches per year) and can be propagated from fragmented pieces as it grows in high-wave action, shallow waters. There are many of these naturally broken, living fragments available for transplant from Gladden Spit Marine Reserve. Although there have been several successful elkhorn coral transplant projects elsewhere (primarily replacing reef lost to groundings), this restoration project will be small scale, as it is unknown whether conditions at Laughing Bird Caye will still support elkhorn growth. 123 One example of a current, successful conservation project which the Committee should support is the Tri-national Alliance of Non-governmental Organizations of the Gulf of Honduras (TRIGOH). TRIGOH is a federation of eleven non-governmental organizations from Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras, established in 1995, that implements conservation initiatives in the Gulf of Honduras shared by the three countries. TRIGOH promotes the sustainable management of fisheries, the protection of threatened species, the development of ecotourism projects, and the design of contingency plans for the prevention of disasters which could damage the natural resources in the Gulf of Honduras and in the Central American region in general. 124 The Committee should encourage regional joint protective efforts, such as those of TRIGOH, in its protection program for the Belize Barrier Reef. b. Mitigate Climate Change Impacts by Extending MPA Protection to Least Affected Areas The impacts of coral bleaching and climate change can be mitigated further by establishing 123 Notes from Lisa Carne, marine biologist with Friends of Nature, Belize 124 World Conservation Prize is Awarded to the Tri-National Alliance of Honduras, WWF Central America Vol 9 No.1 (2000), available at TRIGOH was awarded the J. Paul Getty prize for outstanding achievements and innovative efforts to conserve nature worldwide. The annual prize is regarded as one of the most prestigious international environmental tributes. Id. 28

29 new MPAs and modifying existing MPA boundaries so that protective management will coincide with the areas that are least likely to be affected by future ENSO events and climate change (some of this work in ongoing through the gap analysis). Research evaluating MPAs in Belize at Glovers Reef Marine Reserve suggests that management plans need to take into consideration ENSO events and oceanographic process, particularly current patterns and water temperature, to identify areas that will be least influenced by climate change. This new research suggests that without incorporating this information into the MPA design, management will be only partially successful, and there is a possible need to readjust boundaries so that these factors are incorporated into protective management plans. Before designating new protected area boundaries, these considerations and future influence by global climate change should be determined. 125 The WPC Recommendations suggest a two-fold response to protect biodiversity in the face of climate change. It includes the development of new conservation strategies that have elements, such as the creation of new protected areas that are specifically designed to be resilient to change and the creation of corridors to protect biodiversity from the effects of climate change. It must also include the limitation of climate change by stabilizing global greenhouse gas concentrations. The WPC calls on governments, non-government organizations and local communities to identify and designate protected areas that increase representation of species and ecosystems, the persistence of which is found to be jeopardized due to climate change, including: all threatened species by 2012 and all species and ecosystems by c. Establish a Coral Bleaching Response Program Establishment of a Coral Bleaching Response Program, like that established at the Great Barrier Reef, would provide early warning of major bleaching events, monitor the spatial extent of a bleaching event, assess the ecological impacts, raise awareness about coral bleaching and climate impacts, and further evaluate management policies and strategies for dealing with mass bleaching events. The plan links local reef monitoring programs and attempts to maximize consistency with bleaching response programs in other regions. An adequate bleaching response program for the Belize Barrier Reef would be beneficial to improving awareness and management strategies, particularly for preparation for another massive bleaching event like that experienced in Part of the responsibility of the National Coral Reef Monitoring Group included this rapid response to events such as bleaching. Granted, it certainly needs strengthening, but some credit should be given to the fact that these concerns have been thought of and addressed to some extent. d. Improve efforts at Research, Monitoring, and Education There is an urgent need for research that addresses the vulnerability and resiliency of coral reefs in response to coral bleaching, hurricane, and climate change impacts. More information is needed for successful management on oceanic currents, circulation patterns, 125 McClanahan, Tim R. Evaluation of the Marine Protected Area on the Remote Reef Atoll of Belize, Central America. The Wildlife Conservation Society. 126 WPC Recommendations, supra note 113, at Australia, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority. Great Barrier Reef Coral Bleaching Response Program. Available at 29

30 and water temperature trends to track coral larval flow and pathways of upcurrent pollutants, as well as further assessment and monitoring of the populations of endangered species including the West Indian Manatee, American crocodile, sea turtles, and threatened bird species.. Some of this research is being planned or is underway. Data is also needed on the impacts of recent increased tourism in Belize on coral reef health, particularly the impact of the rapid rate of cruise ship arrivals. 128 This research is critical to identifying the most valuable areas that are the most vulnerable and require immediate protection. More monitoring and education are also essential to improving the enforcement of existing fisheries regulations. The mechanisms for adapting to global climate change must be assessed. In addition, local communities, tourists, and the public need to be educated about the need for the conservation of coral reefs, especially in light of increasing adverse climate change impacts on coral reef ecosystems Global Response Although unhealthy reefs are impacted more severely, global climate change affects both unhealthy and pristine reefs, thus even reefs with adequate and enforced legal protections will still be affected. Any management plan designed to sustain coral reefs must therefore include a plan designed to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases to lessen the future impacts of climate change. 130 Studies suggest that 40% of the world s coral reefs will be lost by 2010, and another 20% in the 20 years following unless urgent management action is implemented. 131 One study stresses that [t]he recent history of coral reefs suggests that collapse is not impossible and indeed, that we may be closer to worldwide collapse than we realize. 132 We submit that the nature of corrective measures that may be included in a program is to be determined, primarily, by the legal obligations contained in the World Heritage Convention (the Convention) and, secondarily, by the provisions of the Operational Guidelines. There is nothing in the Convention or in the Operational Guidelines that prohibits including in the program measures that need to be taken by States other than the State in whose territory the World Heritage Site is located. It is quite clear that Belize s contribution to those human activities which have caused, and which will cause, increases in temperature and in atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 is, and will be, relatively tiny. However, the activities of larger States with high emissions of greenhouse gases clearly threaten the Reef, and these States also have obligations as Parties to the Convention. We therefore submit that the Committee should consider for inclusion amongst the corrective measures the reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases by States who are Parties to the Convention and who emit, and have emitted, the highest levels of these gases. Inclusion of such a measure is justified, for example, by: 128 Almada-Villela, supra note 4, at Id. 130 Pomerance, supra note Kramer, supra note Knowlton, Nancy. The future of coral reefs. Proceedings of the National Acadmey of Sciences 98(10), (May 2001). 30

31 (a) the recognition in the preamble to the Convention that deterioration of any item of heritage constitutes a harmful impoverishment of the heritage of all the nations of the world, that as a World Heritage Site the Belize Barrier Reef is a part of the heritage of outstanding interest that needs to be preserved as part of the world heritage of mankind as a whole, and that is it is incumbent on the international community as a whole to participate in the protection of such heritage of universal value; (b) the recognition in Article 4 of the Convention that the duty of ensuring the protection, conservation, presentation and transmission to future generations of the Belize Barrier Reef World Heritage Site belongs to all States, not only the State of Belize (to whom the duty primarily belongs); (c) the recognition in Article 6.1 of the Convention that this World Heritage Site constitutes world heritage for whose protection it is the duty of the international community as a whole to co-operate; and, (d) arguably above all, the obligation in Article 6.3 of the Convention on all States particularly, in the present context, those States whose deliberate emission of high levels of greenhouse gases not to take any deliberate measures which might damage directly or indirectly the Belize Barrier Reef. The inclusion of greenhouse gas reduction measures in the program of corrective measures raises the question of the relationship of the Convention with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol (KP). The UNFCCC has as its ultimate objective the stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The KP (once in force), in pursuit of that ultimate objective, would impose quantified greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets on Annex I parties for the period In focusing on the concept of preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, these instruments do not have as their express focus the transmission of the world s most outstanding heritage sites to future generations, and do not impose a duty in those terms. This therefore raises the question: if the duty of Parties to the Convention to protect and to transmit the Belize Barrier Reef to future generations is in danger of not being complied with because of past, present and future emissions of greenhouse gases by many of those States who are also Parties to the Convention, is the obligation to transmit the Reef to future generations incapable of validity or recognition on the basis that such emissions are a matter for the UNFCCC and the KP? In our respectful submission, the answer to that question must be No. To answer it otherwise would be to subordinate obligations to protect and transmit World Heritage Sites to future generations to the vicissitudes of other international processes and instruments that do not have these fundamental duties at their heart and which are negotiated on the basis of other considerations. We respectfully submit therefore that it is the duty of the World Heritage Committee to uphold the Convention in the sphere of dangers to World Heritage Sites as a result of present, past and future greenhouse gas emissions and not to abdicate its role and duties under the primary international instrument for protecting and 31

32 transmitting the world s most outstanding heritage, such as the Belize Barrier Reef, to future generations. Put another way: there is no lawful basis, in the current context, upon which to assert that international legal instruments aimed at the causes of dangers take precedence over international legal instruments aimed at protection from the impacts of those dangers. The requirement of Operational Guidelines (80)(iv) that assistance be requested under the Convention also recognizes that the Committee is of the view that its assistance in certain cases may most effectively be limited to messages of its concern, including the message sent by inclusion of a Site on the List. Thus, the fact that the Belize Barrier Reef is threatened by anthropogenic climate change warrants its listing as World Heritage in Danger, if for no other reason than to bring attention to the devastating effects of climate change on marine ecosystems. D. Request for Assistance for Protection of the Belize Barrier Reef [Operational Guidelines (80)(iv)] Petitioner BELPO requests assistance under the Convention for the protection of the Belize Barrier Reef from the detrimental impacts of global climate change and the compound effects of other threats to the reef that will make the Belize Barrier Reef less resilient to global climate change impacts. An appropriate scheme of financial support for design and implementation for this program is also requested. IV. Conclusions The Belize Barrier Reef meets all the requirements and fits within the suggested criteria for the listing of a site on the List of World Heritage in Danger due to serious and specific threats both singly and in combination of climate change, overfishing, excessive and uncontrolled development, disease, and pollution that are ascertained dangers to the reef system, or at a minimum, potential dangers to the reef system. The World Heritage Committee should therefore take action to protect the Belize Barrier Reef and recognize the problem of anthropogenic climate change by listing the Belize Barrier Reef on the List of World Heritage in Danger and assisting the Government of Belize and Non-Governmental Organizations in developing a program of immediate corrective measures for the Site on the basis of the serious and specific, ascertained and potential threats arising from climate change impacts. Submitted, Candy Gonzalez, J.D. Belize Institute of Environmental Law and Policy (BELPO) P.O. Box 54 32

33 San Ignacio, Belize Central America 33