AMAP State of Art and Experiences related to Arctic marine risk
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1 AMAP State of Art and Experiences related to Arctic marine risk CMERA workshop, Tromsø Lars-Otto Reiersen AMAP, Executive Secretary 1
2 AMAP s geographical coverage 2
3 AMAP initiated in 1991 to: Monitor and Assess levels, trends and effects of: Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs), Heavy metals, Radionuclides Petroleum hydrocarbons Climate Change and UV - included in 1993 Analysing samples from: Air, Water, Snow, Ice & Sediments Plankton, Invertebrate, Fish, Mammals & Birds Humans Provide science based policy related Actions 3
4 Tools: National experts - Arctic and observers AMAP Thematic Data Centers (ICES, NRPA) International organizations (ICES, IAEA, WMO, Modeling centers Scenarios GIS etc. 4
5 Marine relevant assessments Radioactivity 1993,1997, 2002, 2009 PoPs & Mercury 1997, 2002, 2009 Oil and Gas 1997, 2008, AMSA iic 2013, Climate 1997, 2004, 2011, Ocean Acidification 2013 Human health 1997, 2002, 2009, 5
6 Radioactivity, source assessments Nuclear weapons testing Reprocessing plants (Sellafield, Mayak) Waste, Storage, Dumped Ships and Containers. Accidents: Nuc. power plants: Chernobyl, Fukushima, Subs: Treasure, Scorpion, Comsomolets, Kursk. Airplanes (B-52) & Satellites. TENORM 6
7 Oil & Gas Acute and operational Oil & Gas Exploration and Exploitation, Pipelines Shipping, Tankers, Bulk, Fishing boats 7
8 OGA Key Finding #5. In marine environments, oil spills are the largest threat A spill that occur in a time and place that animals were aggregated could be especially disastrous
9 OGA Key Finding #9. Responding to major oil spills remains a challenge in remote, icy environments There are no effective means of containing and cleaning up oil spills in broken sea ice Responding to such spills in winter would be even more difficult On land and unbroken sea ice may be easier to clean up, if the work can be done before spring Prevention remains the best means to limit impacts of a spill Experimental in-situ burning of oil in ice Further research is needed on response techniques, particularly for oil under ice or in broken ice
10 Arctic melt - New opportunities ROYAL DANISH DEFENCE COLLEGE 10
11 Key Findings: Ocean Chemistry Key finding 1 Arctic marine waters are experiencing widespread and rapid ocean acidification Key finding 2 The primary driver of ocean acidification is uptake of carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere by human activities Average global surface ocean ph has fallen from a pre-industrial value of 8.21 to 8.10, corresponding to an increase in acidity of 28.8%. Values of are expected by 2100, representing a % increase in acidity (NOAA/PMEL) Key finding 3 The Arctic Ocean is especially vulnerable to ocean acidification Key finding 4 Acidification is not uniform across the Arctic Ocean Ocean surface ph - historical values and projected future values based on emission projections
12 Vulnerability of the Arctic, AMSA iic 12
13 Some Arctic peoples are at threat! 13
14 AMAP Deliverables ArcRisk - Combined Effects of Contaminants and Climate on humans; (Lead: AMAP Secretariat) 2014 UAS Guidelines for operation of Drones in the Arctic (Leads Norway & USA) 2015 SLCF reports: BC & Ozone (Leads: Norway & USA) - Methane (Leads. Canada & USA) 2015 SWIPA Follow up reports: Arctic Sea ice (Leads: tbc) Greenland Ice Sheet (Leads: Denmark) Permafrost (Leads: tbc) Arctic Freshwater budget (Leads: Canada) Feedback from the Arctic (Leads: tbc) 14
15 AMAP Deliverables POPs (Leads: Canada & Sweden) 2015 Radioactivity (Leads: Norway & Russia) 2015 Human Health (Leads: Canada & Norway) 2015/2016 Arctic Ocean Acidification 2 Mercury follow up? (Leads: Norway & tbc) 2017 Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic AACA-C (Leads: Norway & USA?) - combined effects of climate change, resource extraction, transport, new species, immigration of people, tourism, etc. 15
16 From Science to Policy: Radioactivity reduce risk (1995 -) Food advice to Arctic peoples UNECE Århus protocol (1998) UNEP Stockholm Convention on POPs (2001) UN FCCC COP & IPCC (AR# 4 & 5) ( ??) UNEP Global Mercury negotiations ( ?) 16
17 From Production to Action - a long story Substance to Market Substance to Problem Market to Problem Problem to Regulation Regulation to Effect 2-5 y 5-10 y y y 5-10 y Ramon Guardans
18 Arctic - the Barometer of the Globe! Acknowledgement to the hundreds of scientists and experts involved in monitoring, research and assessments of the Arctic 18
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