GED. Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions of up to Two Years: Enrollment and Graduation Patterns. GED Testing Service. Research Studies,

Transcription

1 FOLLOW-UP REPORT, Crossing the bridge, Year one GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions of up to Two Years: Enrollment and Graduation Patterns GED Testing Service Research Studies, A Program of the American Council on Education

2 September 2010 American Council on Education ACE and the American Council on Education are registered trademarks of the American Council on Education and may not be used or reproduced without the express written permission of the American Council on Education. GED Testing Service One Dupont Circle NW, Suite 250 Washington, DC (202) Fax: (202) GED and the GED Testing Service are registered trademarks of the American Council on Education and may not be used or reproduced without the express written permission of the American Council on Education. All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.

3 GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions of up to Two Years: Following up on Enrollment and Graduation Margaret Becker Patterson

4 Acknowledgments A hallmark of research is that even a comprehensive study brings up further questions. The need for this paper came from questions that followed publication of Crossing the Bridge: GED Credentials and Postsecondary Educational Outcomes (Year One Report). The author thanks all the people who asked questions about Crossing the Bridge findings, especially members of the GED Testing Service Research Advisory Panel, GED Administrators, and adult educators. A special thank you goes to Jizhi Zhang and Wei Song for their help with accessing datasets and reviewing earlier drafts of the paper. Another thank you goes to Sarita Patterson for assistance with tables and references. For more information on Crossing the Bridge research work and this paper, please contact the author at margaret_patterson@ace.nche.edu. GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions 2

5 Introduction For thousands of adults without high school diplomas, the GED credential 1 provides a bridge to postsecondary education, particularly into postsecondary programs of up to two years (Patterson, Zhang, Song, & Guison-Dowdy, 2010). Crossing the Bridge, a first-year report on the population of GED testtakers from a 2003 cohort of approximately one-half million candidates, indicated that nearly 78 percent of 2003 GED Tests passers who entered postsecondary education enrolled in institutions of up to two years. The American Council on Education (ACE) has pioneered a multiyear longitudinal study, in support of the 21st Century GED Initiative, to learn about the effect of the GED credential on postsecondary enrollment, persistence, and completion. The 21st Century GED Initiative is a comprehensive, multiyear initiative consisting of three key components: education and preparation; enhanced career- and college-ready assessment aligned with Common Core national standards; and transition services to postsecondary education and career opportunities. This report follows up on the 2003 population of GED Tests passers from the first year of the project, specifically a subpopulation of enrollees in institutions of up to two years. The follow-up study examines which GED Tests passers enroll, their patterns of enrollment, which GED Tests passers graduate from postsecondary programs, and when they graduate from postsecondary institutions of up to two years. It also considers college attendance levels and compares GED Tests performance by postsecondary enrollment and graduation status for this subpopulation. A first look is offered as to how states compare in enrollment and graduation rates. Data on postsecondary outcomes will inform the 21st Century GED Initiative, as studies identify how adults with GED credentials persist (or don t persist) in postsecondary education and factors associated with postsecondary completion. The results of this research also will inform the broader postsecondary community of expected postsecondary outcomes of adults with GED credentials and needed support. Literature Review In the United States, an estimated 40 million adults aged 16 and older lack a high school credential (ACE, 2010). At the same time, federal and state efforts do not emphasize recruiting adults into the pipeline to postsecondary education (Council for Adult and Experiential Learning [CAEL], 2008; Reder, 2007). Focusing more resources on individuals who pursue a GED credential presents an alternative way to fill the postsecondary education pipeline (Behal, 1983; CAEL, 2008; Duke & Ganzglass, 2007; Reder, 2007). Since 1942, nearly 18 million adults have passed the GED Tests (ACE, 2010). Approximately 65 percent of GED Tests passers cited educational reasons for taking the GED Tests (ACE, 2010), and the GED credential is recognized as a pathway to postsecondary education for individuals without a high school diploma and with diverse demographic characteristics (Fry, 2010; Heckman, Humphries, & Mader, 2010; Patterson, Zhang, Song, & Guison-Dowdy, 2010; Reder, 2007). As economic implications for GED credential recipients are debated in the literature on GED test-takers, postsecondary participants with GED credentials tend to show modest increases in earnings and postsecondary graduates show even 1 Virtually all candidates who pass the GED Tests that is, meet their jurisdiction s minimum score requirements receive a GED credential, unless the jurisdiction in which they test has additional requirements for receiving the credential (ACE, 2010). Throughout this paper, the term GED Tests passer identifies candidates who took and passed the GED Tests as a prerequisite to receiving a GED credential. GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions 3

6 more (Georges, 2001; Hanni, 2008; Heckman, Humphries, & Mader, 2010; Lofstrum & Tyler, 2005; Murnane, Willett, & Boudett, 1999; Song & Hsu, 2008). Still, GED Tests passers may delay enrollment in postsecondary education (Behal, 1983; Golden, 2003; Ou, 2008; Patterson, Song, & Zhang, 2009). Individuals with GED credentials need sufficient time after testing to make the decision and prepare to enroll in postsecondary programs (Boudett, Murnane, & Willett, 2000; Patterson, Zhang, Song, & Guison-Dowdy, 2010; Reder, 2007), many of whom tend to participate in a two-year program (Ou, 2008; Patterson, Zhang, Song, & Guison-Dowdy, 2010). Another important observation from the literature is that many enrollees do not complete the first year of postsecondary education or a degree program (Council for Advancement of Adult Literacy [CAAL], 2008; Duke & Ganzglass, 2007; Heckman, Humphries, & Mader, 2010, Murnane, Willett, & Tyler, 2000; Patterson, Zhang, Song, & Guison-Dowdy, 2010; Reder, 1999; Tyler, 2003). In addition to enrollees who drop out of college, many tend to also stop out and come back at a later time (Hensley and Kinser, 2001; Patterson, Zhang, Song, & Guison-Dowdy, 2010). By definition, stopout suggests that a participant would return to school at a later date that for some adults, not completing may simply mean they haven t completed yet (Patterson, Zhang, Song, & Guison-Dowdy, 2010). Considering the patterns of enrollment and stopout could provide further evidence of persistence. Stopout may actually contribute toward degree completion in that the reasons that lead to stopout may be very close to the reasons that later bring adult postsecondary enrollees back (Hensley and Kinser, 2001). Information to clarify the number of GED credential recipients in the population currently pursuing postsecondary education across the country has only been available recently (CAEL, 2008; Maralani, 2006; Ou, 2008; Patterson, Zhang, Song, & Guison-Dowdy, 2010). While previous work introduces a general picture of the characteristics of GED Tests passers who enroll in postsecondary education, a more in-depth look at the subpopulation that chooses postsecondary institutions of up to two years is needed. Method Research questions were: 1. What are the patterns of enrollment for GED Tests passers in postsecondary institutions of up to two years? How do enrollees compare with non-enrollees in demographic characteristics and in performance on the GED Tests? 2. What are the enrollment patterns for GED Tests passers who graduate from postsecondary institutions of up to two years? What are their demographic characteristics and GED Tests performance? What are their attendance levels? How long does it take them to graduate? What postsecondary degree types do they earn? How do states differ in their GED passer postsecondary enrollment and graduation rates? 3. How do stopout/dropout patterns differ for GED Tests passers who do not graduate from postsecondary institutions of up to two years? How do their demographic characteristics and GED Tests performance compare with those of graduates? What are their attendance levels? Data on 540,031 adults from the GEDTS International Database (IDB) were matched with postsecondary enrollment and completion records as of September 2009 from the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC), a nonprofit organization. The IDB data included testing and demographic data from a 2003 cohort of GED Tests candidates who began testing in 2003 and either passed that year or did not pass the GED Tests through 2008; results from the first-year study focused primarily on passers (Patterson, Zhang, Song, & Guison-Dowdy, 2010). NSC serves as a repository for data from GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions 4

7 approximately 3,000 postsecondary institutions 2 and currently holds records for 93 percent of the total U.S. postsecondary student enrollment. The first data source for the present study was the 2003 cohort of GED Tests passers in the IDB; non-passers were excluded from analysis. Descriptive statistics for demographic characteristics, GED Tests performance, and U.S. states were provided. Demographic data included (at time of testing): Age Gender Ethnicity Highest K 12 grade completed before leaving school Primary language (English, Spanish, French, or other language) State where GED Tests were taken Educational reasons for testing (to enter a two-year institution or to enter a fouryear institution) GED Tests pass date GED Tests standard scores were reported for all five content area tests and the overall battery. A second data source was the NSC data matched to the first data source. Variables from this data source included: Institution level (four-year, two-year, and less than two-year institution) State in which the postsecondary institution was located Semester enrollment (total number of semesters enrolled and timing of Enrollment by semester) Postsecondary completion status Degree type (certificate, associate, bachelor) Attendance level (full-time, half-time, and less than half-time attendance) Semesters consisted of six-month time lengths (January to June and July to December) for the years from January 2003 through September 2009 (the final semester includes only the months of July, August, and September 2009 because of cutoff of data collection for Year 1). The use of semester was determined after considering a variety of commonly used time lengths for coursework that are in place in postsecondary institutions, such as quarter, trimester, semester, and other time periods. The semester as defined above best fit the available enrollment data. Enrollment patterns for enrollees and non-graduates were analyzed where more than 50 individuals followed a similar pattern of enrollment; 83,081 enrollees and 73,993 non-graduates were represented under this criterion (76.0 percent of enrollees with GED credentials and 76.9 percent of nongraduates, respectively, in institutions of up to two years). Patterns of enrollment for graduates were examined when at least five graduates followed a particular pattern (n = 9,840 graduates, or 75.0 percent of graduates from institutions of up to two years). Examining the hundreds of small-frequency enrollment patterns occurring in the remaining 25 percent of each group was outside the scope of this study. Enrollees were classified into one of eight enrollment pattern groups: 2 The number of GED credential recipients who enroll in postsecondary may be underreported. However, the percentage of enrollment that could not be matched through the NSC database is approximately 7 percent of all postsecondary students, and GED credential recipients represent only a fraction of that 7 percent. GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions 5

8 (A) Single-semester enrollees enrolled in just one six-month semester period during the time of study. (B) Two-semester enrollees enrolled in two consecutive six-month time periods. (C) Three-semester enrollees enrolled in three consecutive six-month time periods. (D) Short-term enrollees enrolled for either one semester or two consecutive six-month semester periods, stopped out for a single semester, and enrolled again for either one or two semesters, with the total enrollment period no longer than three semesters. (E) Short-term enrollees enrolled for either one or two semesters, then stopped out for at least a year, returning much later to enroll again for either one or two semesters, with the total enrollment period no longer than three semesters. (F) Long-term enrollees enrolled for at least four consecutive semesters. (G) Long-term enrollees stopped out for a single semester at some point during an enrollment period of at least four consecutive semesters and later returned. (H) Long-term enrollees with more than one-semester stopout were similar in definition to group G, yet like their counterparts in group E, stopped out for a year or longer. Descriptive data were also cross-tabulated across groups (postsecondary enrollees compared with non-enrollees, and graduates with non-graduates). Two-way tables were checked for both statistical and practical significance, with an odds ratio used as an effect size for categorical data (Agresti, 2007), as long as each comparison group had at least 5 percent of the total group size and the odds ratio was < 0.90 or > Means were compared for test performance and other continuous variables using t-statistics (p < 0.05) and Cohen s d (Cohen, 1988) as an effect size for practical significance of mean differences, with d > 0.3 as criterion for a meaningful difference. Postsecondary Enrollees and Non-enrollees Results From the 2003 cohort, as displayed in Table 1 on the next page, 109,325 GED Tests passers, or 31.5 percent of all 346,877 GED Tests passers (Patterson, Zhang, Song, & Guison-Dowdy, 2010), enrolled in institutions of up to two years. The first set of research questions considers how enrollees in postsecondary programs of up to two years compare with non-enrollees (regardless of institutional level). Males and females with GED credentials enrolled at similar rates; non-enrollees were more likely to be male. Enrollees generally resembled non-enrollees in age, ethnicity, and primary language. For highest grade completed, candidates completing higher grades may be more inclined to enroll, particularly those who left after completing 11th or 12th grade. When testing, enrollees tended to state a goal of entering a two- or four-year institution more frequently than non-enrollees. GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions 6

9 Table 1. Postsecondary Enrollment Status of the 2003 Cohort of GED Tests Passers, by Demographic Characteristics 2003 Cohort of GED Tests Passers Who Enrolled in Characteristic Institutions of up to Two Years 2003 Cohort of GED Tests Passers Who Did Not Enroll Number in 2003 Cohort of GED Tests passers 109, ,228 Gender (Percent): Male Female Age in 2003 (Median Years) Ethnic Group (Percent): Hispanic African American White American Indian/Alaska Native Asian Native Hawaiian/ Pacific Islander Primary Language (Percent): English Language Other Than English Highest Grade Completed (Percent): 8th Grade (or Below) th Grade th Grade th Grade th Grade Reasons for GED Testing (Percent): Enter Two-Year Institution Enter Four-Year Institution Institutional Control (Percent): Public 97.1 Private 2.9 Institutional Level (Percent): Two Year 99.4 Less Than Two Year 0.6 Attendance Status: Full Time 38.8 Half Time 37.4 Less Than Half Time 23.8 Notes: Percentages represent column percents for the 2003 cohort of GED Tests GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions 7

10 passers who were either enrollees or non-enrollees in postsecondary education For Enrollees Missing n for age = 148 For Enrollees Missing n for gender = 1,025 For Enrollees Missing n for ethnicity = 11,805 For Enrollees Missing n for primary language = 12,378 For Enrollees Missing n for highest grade completed = 9,509 For Enrollees Missing n for institutional control = 1 For Non-Enrollees Missing n for gender = 2,348 For Non-Enrollees Missing n for age = 458 For Non-Enrollees Missing n ethnicity = 19,244 For Non-Enrollees Missing n for primary language = 22,906 For Non-Enrollees Missing n for highest grade completed = 17,061 Postsecondary Enrollment Patterns The patterns of enrollment for GED Tests passers, as shown in Table 2, varied considerably across the eight groups (five short-term and three long-term enrollees, as defined in the Methods section earlier). In the group of enrollees with at least 50 people per pattern, these eight patterns represented nearly 100 percent of possible patterns in the sample. The most common pattern was group A, the one-semester enrollee, with 36,779 enrollees, or 44.3 percent of the enrollee sample. Most single-semester enrollees (60.7 percent) entered within three years of passing the GED Tests. Single-semester enrollees did not reenroll during the period of study. Approximately 18.0 percent of single-semester enrollees enrolled in the last year of the study period (January 2008 to September 2009), so they could be considered neither dropouts nor stopouts. Two-semester enrollees (B) and three-semester enrollees (C) had the next highest proportions of group size for short-term enrollees, with 17.0 and 7.9 percent, respectively. Both of these groups enrolled for consecutive semesters without stopping out. Short-term enrollees who stopped out (D and E) enrolled for no more than three semesters total, yet were more likely to stop out for multiple semesters (E, with 7.9 percent) than for a single semester (D, with 4.3 percent). The largest group of long-term enrollees (F, with 17.5 percent) enrolled for at least four and as many as 14 semesters. Enrollees in group F may represent students enrolled in general coursework but not a degree program, part-time students, students pursuing multiple certificates, or students pursuing an associate degree or multiple degrees. Table 2. Patterns of Semester Enrollment, by 2003 GED Tests Passers in Institutions of up to Two Years, All Enrollees Enrolled Pattern Pattern Description (n = 83,081) Percent A one-semester enrollee 44.3 B two-semester enrollee 17.0 C three-semester enrollee 7.9 D short-term enrollee with one-semester stopout 4.3 Table 2 continued on next page GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions 8

11 Table 2, continued from previous page E short-term enrollee with more than one semester stopout 7.9 F long-term enrollee (four or more consecutive semesters) 17.5 G long-term enrollee with one-semester stopout 1.1 H long-term enrollee with more than one semester stopout 0.4 Postsecondary Graduates and Non-graduates The second and third sets of research questions compare postsecondary graduates (n = 13,113) from institutions of up to two years with non-graduates (n = 96,212). Approximately 12.0 percent of students with GED credentials graduated from institutions of up to two years. On average, GED Tests passers graduated from postsecondary institutions of up to two years in two years and nine months. Degree types included certificates (n = 2,219, or 38.3 percent of graduates with degree type) and associate degrees (n = 3,576, or 61.7 percent). Of those participants with a goal of entering a two-year institution when GED testing, 1,515, or 42.4 percent, later received an associate degree. How long did it take them to graduate? Graduates enrolled for an average of 6.3 semesters, much longer than the average non-graduate (2.9 semesters; d = 1.2). Enrollment peaked between two and three semesters for those earning postsecondary certificates and between eight and nine semesters for those receiving associate degrees. Males were significantly more likely to get certificates, and females to get associate degrees. African-American GED Tests passers were significantly more likely to get certificates, and Hispanic and white GED Tests passers to get associate degrees, but the difference was largest between Hispanic and African-American GED Tests passers, with African-American students 19 percent less likely to get an associate degree than Hispanic students (OR = 0.81). Although the most frequent month for passing the GED Tests was May, which might reflect candidates wishes to participate in spring GED graduation ceremonies or prepare to enter fall postsecondary programs, GED Tests passers did not differ in postsecondary graduation status by month of testing. Age did not differ by degree type. Characteristics of both groups of GED Tests passers, postsecondary graduates and non-graduates, are presented in Table 3 on the next page. The likelihood for males to graduate was 73 percent of that for females, compared with non-graduates. The average age (when taking the GED Tests) for graduates was 23.5 years, slightly higher than the age for non-graduates but the difference was not practically meaningful. The likelihood of graduation for Hispanic students with GED credentials was 77 percent of that for white students, compared with non-graduates. The difference between African-American and white students with GED credentials with respect to graduation status was not practically significant. Because of very small percentages, American Indian, Asian, and Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander groups could not be accurately compared. Other planned comparisons were for primary language, highest grade completed, and reasons for testing. Because of very small percentages, primary language groups could not be accurately compared. Graduates and non-graduates alike tended to complete 10th grade; differences were not practically meaningful, with the exception of 12th-grade completers with GED credentials. The likelihood of 10thgrade completers to graduate from postsecondary education was 55 percent of that of 12th-grade completers. Differences in goals to enter either a two-year or four-year institution, in contrast to enrollees GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions 9

12 versus non-enrollees, were not practically meaningful for graduates and non-graduates. These stated reasons for testing may have a relationship with the decision to enroll, but not to graduate. Table 3. Characteristics of the 2003 Cohort of GED Tests Passers Who Enrolled in Institutions of up to Two Years, by Graduation Status Characteristics Graduates Non-Graduates Effect Size 2003 Cohort of GED Tests Passers 13,113 96,212 Gender (Percent): Male (reference) Female OR=0.73*** Age in 2003 (Mean) d=0.3*** Ethnic Group (Percent): Hispanic OR=0.77*** African American OR=0.90*** White (reference) American Indian/Alaska Native none Asian none Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander none Primary Language (Percent): English none Spanish Highest Grade Completed (Mean): d=0.1*** Highest Grade Completed (Percent): 8th Grade (or below) NS 9th Grade OR=0.91*** 10th Grade (reference) th grade NS 12th grade OR=0.55*** Reasons for GED Testing (Percent): Enter Two-Year Institution OR=0.95*** Enter Four-Year Institution OR=0.94*** Semesters Enrolled (Mean) d = 1.2*** Institutional Control (Percent): Public none Private Institutional Level (Percent): Two Year none Less Than Two Year Table 3 continued on next page GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions 10

13 Table 3, continued from previous page Attendance Status (Percent): Full Time (reference) Half Time OR=1.83*** Less Than Half Time OR=2.74*** Notes: *** p <.001. OR=odds ratio. D=Cohen s d. NS=not significant, p <.05. Percentages represent column percents for the 2003 cohort of GED Tests passers who were either enrollees or non-enrollees in postsecondary education. Percentages reflect sample sizes with missing data already excluded. Age range for non-graduates was 16 to 100 years; missing n = 128 For non-graduates missing n for gender = 873 For non-graduates missing n for ethnicity = 10,403 For non-graduates missing n for primary language = 10,804 For non-graduates missing n for highest grade completed = 8,247 For non-graduates missing n for attendance status = 31,211 Age range for graduates was 16 to 76 years; missing n = 20 For graduates missing n for gender = 152 For graduates missing n for ethnicity = 1,402 For graduates missing n for highest grade completed = 1,262 For graduates missing n for institutional control = 1 For graduates missing n for attendance status = 4,236 Enrollees who attended full time were 83 percent more likely to graduate than those who attended half time, and nearly three times as likely (OR = 2.74) as those who attended less than half time. Public and private institutions and two-year and less than two-year institutions could not be compared because of small percentages. Differences in GED Tests Performance All three research questions inquire into potential difference in GED Tests performance by enrollment status and graduation status. Did GED Tests passers who enrolled in postsecondary education have higher scores than those who did not enroll? Did postsecondary graduates have higher GED Tests scores than those who did not graduate? Tables 4 and 5 on the next page display the median and mean standard scores for the four groups, respectively. Although on average postsecondary enrollees tended to have higher standard scores than non-enrollees, and graduates tended to have higher standard scores than non-graduates, the differences were not practically meaningful (d < 0.3). The only mean standard score differences with significant effects were between non-enrollees and postsecondary graduates (d = 0.4 for Language Arts, Writing, Mathematics, and the battery score). GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions 11

14 Table 4. GED Tests Performance of 2003 GED Tests Passers, by Enrollment and Graduation Status GED Test Median Standard Score Non-Enrollee Enrollee Non-Graduate Graduate Language Arts, Writing Social Studies Science Language Arts, Reading Mathematics Battery 2,580 2,650 2,640 2,730 Notes: Range of standard scores is 410 to 800; range for battery is 2,250 to 4,000. Table 5. GED Tests Performance of 2003 GED Tests Passers, by Enrollment and Graduation Status GED Test Mean Standard Score (Standard Deviation) Non-Enrollee Enrollee~ Non- Graduate~ Graduate~ Language Arts, Writing 503 (68) 521 (77) 519 (75) 535 (86) Social Studies 529 (69) 540 (74) 538 (72) 554 (81) Science 551 (71) 560 (77) 559 (76) 572 (83) Language Arts, Reading 561 (94) 577 (100) 575 (98) 593 (106) Mathematics 490 (62) 503 (71) 501 (70) 517 (80) Battery 2,635 (278) 2,701 (312) 2,692 (305) 2,771 (348) Notes: ~ = Enrolled in institutions of up to two years. Range of standard scores is 410 to 800; range for battery is 2,250 to 4,000. Postsecondary Non-graduate and Graduate Enrollment Pattern In terms of number of semesters enrolled, non-graduate enrollment was close to that of enrollees overall, as shown in Figure 1 on the next page. Enrollment for non-graduates was highest for those enrolling in a single semester, while enrollment for graduates was highest at four semesters total. GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions 12

15 Figure 1. Number of Semesters Enrolled, by Graduation Status Percent Enrolled Enrolled Graduates Non-Graduates Number of Semesters Enrolled State Differences in Postsecondary Enrollment and Graduation Rates Enrollment in postsecondary education differed by state also. Table 6 on the next page displays percentages of all U.S. jurisdictions whose GED Tests passers enrolled in postsecondary institutions of up to two years, as a whole and by graduation status. The highest rates of postsecondary enrollment for 2003 GED Tests passers were in North Carolina, Iowa, Illinois, Oregon, and Nebraska. The highest rates of postsecondary graduates among enrollees with GED credentials were in New Hampshire, Georgia, South Dakota, Delaware, and Minnesota. Four states (Georgia, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Wisconsin) were among the top 10 states for both enrollment and graduation rates of 2003 GED Tests passers. GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions 13

16 Table 6. Postsecondary Enrollment and Graduation Rates of 2003 GED Tests Passers Enrolled in Institutions of up to Two Years, by State State Passers Enrolled Graduates Number Number Percent Number Percent Alabama 7,197 1, Alaska 1, Arizona 7, Arkansas 5,753 1, California 25,163 8, Colorado 8,390 2, Connecticut 2,838 N/A N/A N/A N/A District of Columbia Delaware Florida 25,536 6, Georgia 17,280 7, , Hawaii 1, Idaho 15, Illinois 15,417 7, Indiana 8,925 2, Iowa 2,904 1, Kansas 3,929 1, Kentucky 9,394 2, Louisiana 7,381 1, Maine 2, Maryland 5,043 1, Massachusetts 6,836 2, Michigan 10,834 3, Minnesota 6,575 2, Mississippi 6,117 2, Missouri 7,941 2, Montana 2, Nebraska 2, Nevada 3, New Hampshire 1, New Jersey 5,667 2, New Mexico 3,817 1, New York 23,618 5, North Carolina 9,004 5, North Dakota Ohio 15,218 N/A N/A N/A N/A Table 6 continued on next page GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions 14

17 Table 6, continued from previous page Oklahoma 7,015 1, Oregon 7,106 3, Pennsylvania 13,269 2, Rhode Island 1, South Carolina 4,775 1, South Dakota 1, Tennessee 10,396 2, Texas 34,228 8, Utah 4, Vermont 783 N/A N/A N/A N/A Virginia 10,119 3, Washington 11,670 4, West Virginia 3, Wisconsin 7,091 2, Wyoming 1, Note: N/A = Data for state not available in dataset. Enrollment Patterns by Graduation Status What were the patterns of enrollment for graduates compared with non-graduates? Table 7 displays patterns for groups A through H. Data on enrollees from Table 2 are repeated for comparison purposes. Graduates most frequently enrolled for at least four consecutive semesters (group F, with 51.1 percent), whereas non-graduates most frequently enrolled for only a single semester (group A, with 48.4 percent) or two semesters (group B, with 18.0 percent). Non-graduates have enrollment patterns that are more similar to all enrollees, not surprising given the low graduation rate. However, nearly 1 in 4 graduates also stopped out 14.9 percent for a semester and 9.4 percent for multiple semesters before resuming and completing postsecondary programs in institutions of up to two years. In fact, these graduates stopped out at proportionately higher rates (24.3 percent) than non-graduates (13.7 percent). The presence of 12.6 percent of non-graduates (groups G, H, and X), who had already committed enough time to postsecondary coursework to be termed long-term enrollees, suggests that additional GED Tests passers could graduate given a longer study period. Table 7. Patterns of Semester Enrollment of 2003 GED Tests Passers in Institutions of up to Two Years, by Graduation Status and All Enrollees Non- Pattern Pattern Description Enrolled Graduates Graduates Percent Percent Percent A one-semester enrollee B two-semester enrollee C three-semester enrollee D short-term enrollee with one-semester stopout E short-term enrollee with more than one-semester stopout Table 7 continued on next page GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions 15

18 Table 7, continued from previous page F long-term enrollee (four or more consecutive semesters) G long-term enrollee with one-semester stopout H long-term enrollee with more than one-semester stopout Discussion and Implications As in an earlier study of the 2003 population of postsecondary enrollees with GED credentials (Patterson, Zhang, Song, & Guison-Dowdy, 2010), students with GED credentials enrolled in institutions of up to two years had a graduation rate of approximately 12 percent. More than half of the latter graduates received associate degrees after an average of four years; another third earned certificates, on average within a year to year and a half after enrolling. These results highlight the role of extended time, with an average graduate tending to require nearly twice the time to graduate from a postsecondary program. Administrators and staff of college programs that are traditionally considered two-year programs need to be aware of these findings when planning or enhancing programs of study and recruiting adults with GED credentials. Did adults with GED credentials put in the time needed to complete programs? At first glance, the low graduation rate and prevalence of short-term enrollment would suggest they did not; nongraduates tended to enroll for a semester or two and not return during the period of study, as found in prior research (CAAL, 2008; Duke & Ganzglass, 2007; Heckman, Humphries, & Mader, 2010; Murnane, Willett, & Tyler, 2000; Patterson, Zhang, Song, & Guison-Dowdy, 2010; Reder, 1999; Tyler, 2003). Without a doubt, more research (both quantitative and qualitative) is needed to identify the circumstances and reasons for the loss of the vast majority of enrollees with GED credentials. Even so, the underlying patterns of enrollment were truly complex. Single-semester enrollment was the most common short-term pattern for graduates and non-graduates alike, and long-term consecutive enrollment of at least four semesters was the most prevalent long-term pattern for graduates and non-graduates. To state that graduates didn t enroll for single semesters or that non-graduates didn t enroll for four or more consecutive semesters would be inaccurate for thousands of GED Tests passers. The primary difference was that graduates tended to follow long-term patterns. Institutions offering traditional two-year postsecondary programs need to not only encourage but support GED Tests passers in these patterns. Persistence of GED Tests passers to postsecondary degree completion is evident in the higher likelihood of full-time enrollees to graduate and their low incidence of stopout. These findings for graduates contrast with previous findings in Hensley and Kinser (2001) and Patterson, Zhang, Song, & Guison-Dowdy (2010). Although one in four graduates stopped out surprisingly, at a higher rate than non-graduates half of graduates enrolled for consecutive semesters, ranging from two to seven years, without stopping out at all. A more in-depth look at patterns for graduates, perhaps including patterns that fewer than five graduates followed, as well as qualitative research into the experiences of those who stop out and return to graduate, would help determine the full extent of these contrasts. With the exception of gender, highest grade completed, and their educational goals when taking the GED Tests, enrollees in postsecondary institutions of up to two years had demographic characteristics similar to non-enrollees with GED credentials. One implication of these similarities is that the message of the value of further education may have a broad reach, whether acted upon or not; demographic characteristics of GED credential recipients may have little or no relationship with whether they enter postsecondary institutions such as community or technical colleges. It is not surprising that those with the GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions 16

19 goal to enter a two-year postsecondary program would tend to do so. A notable difference from the 2003 GED Tests passers population (regardless of institutional type), as reported by Patterson, Zhang, Song, & Guison-Dowdy (2010), was a more even balance of males and females enrolling in institutions of up to two years. If enrollees did not differ substantially from non-enrollees in demographic characteristics, which characteristics of graduates from postsecondary schools of up to two years, beyond enrollment patterns, distinguished them from non-graduates? On average, graduates might be expected to have at least one of the following characteristics: Female White or African-American ethnic group Twelfth-grade completer (in contrast to average 10th-grade completer, at time of GED Tests) Enrolled an average of six semesters Enrolled as a full-time student What role does performance on the GED Tests play in postsecondary enrollment and persistence? Standard scores of postsecondary graduates with GED credentials on average did not differ significantly from non-graduates, but postsecondary graduates had moderately higher scores in writing and mathematics compared with GED Tests passers who never enrolled in postsecondary education. Perhaps students with stronger performance in writing and mathematics not only possess the confidence to enroll in a two-year institution, but also the necessary skills to persist to graduation; GED Tests passers with lower scores may be less likely to even enroll. While findings related to degree type were informative, many questions remain. What circumstances were associated with differences in degree type by gender and ethnic group? Are men drawn more toward short-term postsecondary opportunities that allow them to quickly qualify for a new career path? Do programs of longer length appeal more to women, who may traditionally have work and family responsibilities so could not participate in short-term, intensive certificate programs and would require extended time to pursue postsecondary degrees? Previous research has identified the GED credential as offering a pathway for ethnically diverse dropouts (Fry, 2010; Medhanie & Patterson, 2009; Patterson, Zhang, Song & Guison-Dowdy, 2010; Reder, 2007). What factors might explain tendencies of African-American GED Tests passers to more frequently earn postsecondary certificates, and Hispanics to attain associate degrees? Further research into possible interactions and the qualitative nature of these associations is warranted. Finally, the prevalence across states was intriguing, particularly that several of the same states testing GED Tests passers had a position among states with highest rates for both postsecondary enrollment and graduation. Although sizable proportions of enrollees may simply reflect large populations (for example, Georgia and North Carolina test approximately 30,000 adults annually), the proportion of graduates fluctuated for states with comparable population size. In the same example, Georgia had a graduation rate that was 37 percent higher than North Carolina s graduation rate. Further research into the demographic characteristics, test performance, and enrollment patterns of individual states would be valuable. GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions 17

20 References Agresti, A. (2007). An introduction to categorical data analysis (2nd ed.). New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons. American Council on Education (ACE). (2010) GED testing program statistical report. Washington, DC: Author. Behal, E. (1983). After the GED Tests: Postsecondary education enrollment patterns and perceptions of GED examinees. GED Testing Service Research Studies No. 5. Washington, DC: American Council on Education. Boudett, K., Murnane, R., & Willett, J. (2000). Second-chance strategies for women who drop out of school. Monthly Labor Review, 123(12), Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Council for Adult and Experiential Learning (CAEL). (2008). Adult learning in focus: National and stateby-state data. Chicago, IL: Author. Retrieved May 15, 2008, from Council for Advancement of Adult Literacy (CAAL). (2008). Reach higher, America: Overcoming crisis in the U.S. workforce. New York, NY: Author. Duke, A., & Ganzglass, E. (2007). Strengthening state adult education policies for low-skilled workers. Retrieved August 21, 2008, from Fry, R. (2010). Hispanics, high school dropouts, and the GED. Washington, DC: Pew Research Center. Georges, A. (2001). The GED certificate and the poverty status of adult women. Journal of Children & Poverty, 7(1), Golden, S. (2003). Self-efficacy: How does it influence academic success? Adult Learning, 14 (3), Hanni, M. (2008). The economic value of the GED: Data from Utah. Salt Lake City, UT: Department of Workforce Services. Harris, L., & Ganzglass, E. (2008). Creating postsecondary pathways to good jobs for young high school dropouts: The possibilities and the challenges. Washington, DC: Center for American Progress. Heckman, J., Humphries, J., & Mader, N. (2010). The GED. NBER Working Paper Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. Hensley, L., & Kinser, K. (2001). Rethinking adult learner persistence: Implications for counselors. Adultspan Journal, 3(2), Lofstrum, M., & Tyler, J. (2005). Is the GED an effective route to postsecondary education? Unpublished manuscript. GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions 18

21 Maralani, V. (2006). From GED to college: The role of age and timing in educational stratification. Los Angeles, CA: California Center for Population Research. Retrieved August 22, 2008, from Medhanie, A., & Patterson, M. (2009). Policies of test centers and jurisdictions and GED candidate test performance. Research Studies Washington, DC: GED Testing Service. Retrieved January 4, 2010, from Murnane, R., Willett, J., & Boudett, K. (1997). Does a GED lead to more training, postsecondary education, and military service for school dropouts? Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 51(1), Murnane, R., Willett, J., & Boudett, K. (1999). Do male dropouts benefit from obtaining a GED, postsecondary education, and training? Evaluation Review, 23(5), Murnane, R., Willett, J., & Tyler, J. (2000). Who benefits from obtaining a GED? Evidence from high school and beyond. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(1), Ou, S. (2008). Do GED recipients differ from graduates and school dropouts? Findings from an inner-city cohort. Urban Education, 43(1), Patterson, M., Zhang, J., Song, W., & Guison-Dowdy, A. (2010). Crossing the bridge: GED credentials and postsecondary educational outcomes year one report. Washington, DC: American Council on Education. Reder, S. (1999). Adult literacy and postsecondary education students: Overlapping trajectories. Review of Adult Literacy and Learning, Vol. 1. Retrieved August 21, 2008, from Reder, S. (2007). Adult education and postsecondary success. New York, NY: Council for Advancement of Adult Literacy. Retrieved June 5, 2009, from Song, W., & Hsu, Y. (2008). Economic and noneconomic outcomes for GED credential recipients. Research Studies Washington, DC: GED Testing Service. Retrieved May 4, 2008, from Tyler, J. (2003). Economic benefits of the GED: Lessons from recent research. Review of Educational Research, 73(3), Tyler, J. (2005). The General Educational Development (GED) credential: History, current research, and directions for policy and practice. In Comings, J., Garner, B., & Smith, C. (Eds.), Review of Adult Learning and Literacy, Vol. 5: Connecting Research, Policy, and Practice (pp ). Mahwah, New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Tyler, J., & Berk, J. (2008). Low-skilled workers and the Rhode Island labor market: The role of education credentials. Unpublished manuscript, Providence, Rhode Island: Brown University. Tyler, J., & Lofstrum, M. (2008). Is the GED an effective route to postsecondary education for school dropouts? National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved December 22, 2009, from GED Tests Passers in Postsecondary Institutions 19

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