Overview and Commentary. Mark E. Boettcher, MAI MHDC Market Analyst

Transcription

1 Overview and Commentary The Missouri Housing Development Commission is dedicated to strengthening communities and the lives of Missourians through the financing, development and preservation of affordable housing. Mark E. Boettcher, MAI MHDC Market Analyst 1

2 To tell a convincing and objective story Conclusions to flow smoothly from the data Transparency - Everything should be replicable by MHDC To be efficient. Starting the Monday after the Friday due date I start reading the 100+ market studies submitted 2

3 Remember, the point of all the analysis is to inform MHDC: What locational factors affect the subject site What the achievable restricted rent is per unit type What the achievable market rent is per unit type If the market supports the developer s projected restricted rent estimates The point in time when the property is expected to reach stabilization If there are any risks to these projections If there are enough households at sufficient income levels to make the project viable 1 1 The project should absorb the restricted units and not reduce occupancy at other affordable developments in the PMA. 3

4 Each study must be in a searchable PDF format. Be in color. Have page numbers. Have a table of contents. 4

5 Source the data in a table at the location of the table. DATA SOURCE Meet or exceed the items contained in the guidelines. 5

6 The market study and the 1300 Form must be prepared or updated within six months of submission to MHDC. Example: if submission deadline is Sept. 5, 2015 then the studies cannot be dated earlier than March 9, UNLESS: There is an update. 6

7 Update or not, no report will be accepted if the origination date exceeds 18 months. For example, 18 months prior to Sept. 5, 2015 is March 6, The site and neighborhood must be inspected by the same person. 7

8 The MHDC 1300 Form was improved Make sure your analyst uses the most current form 8

9 To include: precise statements of key conclusions reached by the analyst. Summary of positive and negative attributes and issues that will affect the property s marketability, performance, and lease-up. Concise description of the site and the immediately surrounding land uses. 9

10 The crime rate in the subject s neighborhood The rank of the subject s school district The distance to public transit Unemployment rate in the PMA 10

11 Brief summary of the subject development, including the proposed population to be served. Brief description of the defined primary market area (PMA). 11

12 Summary of economic conditions in the PMA. Summary of key demographic data including number of households and income levels. S Summary of absorption 12

13 A statement describing whether the subject site is within a one-mile radius of any property that has been approved for state or federal LIHTC, HOME, or Fund Balance financing through MHDC within the previous two funding year cycles. 13

14 A YOC % Occ. C mile 50% Occ. B P = 2016 YOC % Occ. 14

15 Restatement of: The poverty rate The percent and number of publically subsidized housing units (as defined by MHDC in these guidelines) in the subject s census tract and abutting census tracts* 15

16 Public Housing Authority Projects Housing Choice Vouchers Project-based Section 8 Rural Development LIHTC 16

17 The percent and number of publically subsidized housing units (as defined by MHDC in these guidelines) in the subject s census tract and abutting census tracts. This is hypothetical - no real examples have been created yet. Census Tract Total Housing Units PHA Project Based Sec. 8 Housing Choice Sec. 8 Vouchers RD LIHTC Total Publically Subsidized Percent Publically Subsidized Per Tract Other Remaining Market Rate Units (Subject) 2, % 120 1, , % 0 2, , % 0 2, , % 25 2, , % 0 2,105 Total 12, , % ,905 17

18 Census Tract Total Housing Units PHA Project Based Sec. 8 Housing Choice Sec. 8 RD LIHTC Total Publically Subsidized Percent Publically Subsidized Per Tract Other Market Rate Units 1000 (Sub) 2, % 120 1, , % 0 2, , % 0 2, , % 25 2, , % 0 2,105 Total 12, , % ,905 18

19 The Guidelines require the insertion of an aerial or map - something like this. 19

20 City Index Jefferson City 0 Kearney 0.97 Excelsior Springs 1.23 St. Peters 1.87 Parkville 2.13 Kansas City 2.21 Hollister 2.92 Mexico 3.78 Missouri 4.33 Rolla 4.45 Columbia 5.00 Maryville 5.17 North KC 5.56 Springfield 6.06 Poplar Bluff/Neeley 6.21 Springfield St. Louis Kansas City St. Louis St. Louis Kansas City

21 Using the link in the market study guidelines, report the state ranking of the subject s school district. 21

22 Summary of demand for the proposed units. Summary of the capture rate analysis. 22

23 Region City SMA PMA Neighborhood Site Abutting Census Tracts* Subject Census Tract *Only for St. Louis and Kansas City 23

24 Poor Example Good Example Subject Site Photo is taken from site s east side looking west. Smith Lane is in the foreground. 24

25 Large circle is SMA = 30,000 HH. Small circle is PMA = 3,000 HH. Secondary market is over-counted by 3,000 HH. 25

26 According to My Data Source, the number of households decreased 13% between 2000 and 2014 and another 3% decrease is expected through

27 According to My Data Source, the median household income in the PMA and city are expected to grow by 3.0% annually through

28 PMA Total HH Size Qualified HH Age Qualified HH Income Qualified HH Renter Qualified HH Special Needs Qualified HH = Total Eligible HHs in PMA Rent Burdened HH 28

29 There were modifications to the market study guidelines necessitated by changes to the QAP More clarity to what was already reported (Explaining subscribed data, table data source, updates ) Addition of new items (census tracts, school district ranking, crime data, poverty rate, one-mile radius rule, definition of publically subsidized housing ) 29

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31 Mark Boettcher, MAI Market Analyst/Reviewer MHDC