THE ADAPTATION OF SUGARCANE TO CLIMATE CHANGES: OBSERVATIONS ABOUT THE BRAZILIAN BREEDING.

Transcription

1 THE ADAPTATION OF SUGARCANE TO CLIMATE CHANGES: OBSERVATIONS ABOUT THE BRAZILIAN BREEDING. Silvia Angélica D. de Carvalho, PhD André T. Furtado, PhD Departament of Science and Technology Policy Geoscience Institute UNICAMP

2 1. OBJECTIVE AND METHODOLOGY Objective: It presents some observations about sugarcane breeding in Brazil and it analyzes the country's ability to provide adapted varieties to climate changes, maintaining its current position of major producer; Methodology: Literature review; Interviews carried out with coordinators from some Brazilians breeding programs; Survey of secondary data;

3 2. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN ALCOHOL PRODUCTION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES Research objectives: Investigating the main sugarcane breeding programs in Brazil, identifying the main technological challenges for the crop related to the adaptation to climate changes and supporting the formulation of public policies focused on the sugar and alcohol sector Thematic Project - ALCSCENS: Generation of Alcohol Production Scenarios as Support for the Formulation of Public Policies Applied to the Adaptation of the National Sugar and Alcohol Industry to the Climate Changes; It s inserted in the Research Program of Global Climate Changes at Research Foundation of São Paulo State FAPESP

4 2. The importance of studying the Sugarcane and Alcohol Sector: Expansion Constraints & Impacts Potential, Pressure, Demand, Economical Interest, Land, Technology Environment, Food Security, Tax Burden Demographic Dynamics, Infrastructure Human Health, Harvest Forecast

5 2. Thematic Project: the sugarcane sector adaptation depends on the interaction and adaptation of all these areas. Climatology Demography Politics Food Security Health Genetic Engineering Modeling Geo-technology Scientific Communication Agriculture

6 Home page:

7 3. BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE SECTOR Brazil is the world s largest producer of sugar and alcohol; The sugarcane production grew 143% in the decade ; Strong growth is due to the intensification of domestic and foreign demands for sugar and alcohol;

8 Millions of tons GROWTH OF SUGARCANE BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION Harvest-Year Source: Ministry of Agriculture - Anuário Estatístico da Agroenergia 2010/ Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Secretaria de Produção e Agroenergia Brasília, : MAPA /SPAE, 2ª ed., p.

9 (Millions of hectares) (Tonnes per hectares) EVOLUTION OF THE PRODUCTION AREA AND THE PRODUCTIVITY OF BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE (yield t/ha) (Planted area) (Harvested area) Source: Ministry of Agriculture - Anuário Estatística da Agroenergia 2010/ Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Secretaria de Produção e Agroenergia Brasília, : MAPA /SPAE, 2ª ed., p.

10 EVOLUTION OF ETHANOL BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION Millions of m 3 Harvests Source: Ministry of Agriculture - Anuário Estatística da Agroenergia 2010/ Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Secretaria de Produção e Agroenergia Brasília, : MAPA /SPAE, 2ª ed., p.

11 Millions of tonnes EVOLUTION OF SUGAR BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION Harvests

12 3. BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE SECTOR But, in recent harvests, some indicators start to fall: harvest 2010/2011 harvest 2011/2012 Percentage change Planted area (thousand ha) 8, , ,49 Yield (ton/ha) 77,45 68,29-11,82 Production (thousand ton) 623, , ,4 Sugar Production (thousand ton) 38, , ,37 Alcohol Production (thousand m 3 ) 27, , ,17 What is happening? Why are the indicators falling?

13 3. BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE SECTOR There are some structural problems such as lack of renewal sugarcane planted area, and besides... The climate had an important role in the drops just mentioned: Extension of the dry season; Instability of rainfall, more intense and in short period; Absence of rain in significant periods of plant development And so on...

14 4. SUGARCANE AND CLIMATE SCENARIOS São Paulo State, the largest Brazilian producer, has fertile lands and very favorable climatic conditions; The new areas of crop expansion have worst conditions: poor soil, high temperature and water stress. For example, the North of São Paulo and the Midwest of the country; The Brazilian climate scenarios (PINTO & ASSAD, 2008) estimated that the increase in temperature will promote an increase in water stress, leading to a raise in areas with high climatic risks; According to these scenarios, sugarcane is one of the few crops that should have significant expansion of the productive area. Reference: Pinto, H.S. & Assad, E.D. Global Warming and the New Geography of Agricultural Production in Brazil. British Embassy, 2008.

15 4. SUGARCANE AND CLIMATE SCENARIOS Recent studies bring some reservations to this strong expansion of the sugarcane Gonçalves et al (2011): The temperature rise expected in the coming decades can be generally suitable for sugarcane, but the influence of water for the crop is large, especially during vegetative growth. As the water stress has been observed precisely in the sugarcane vegetative growing period, there may be a significant drop in the productivity of sugarcane (like occurred in the last harvests). Reference: GONÇALVES, R. R. V. et al Análise comparativa do clima atual e futuro para avaliar a expansão da cana-de-açúcar em São Paulo. XVII Congresso Brasileiro de Agrometeorologia, Guarapari ES, 2011.

16 4. SUGARCANE AND CLIMATE SCENARIOS Thus, the temperature rise associated with increasing water stress may lead to an increase in production costs by requiring the use of other technologies such as irrigation; (and adapted varieties) So, the research and development of highly productive varieties are essential to ensure the adaptation of this crop.

17 5. SUGARCANE GENETIC BREEDING Traditional Brazilian centers of sugarcane breeding have been responsible for major advances in productivity and they are still the basis of technological development in the sector; The sugarcane yield grew 30% in 30 years thanks to the genetic breeding and support of public research programs, like PROALCOHOL; Leading Brazilians genetic breeding institutes: University Network for Development of the Sugar-Ethanol Sector RIDESA*; Sugarcane Tecnology Center CTC*; Agronomic Institute of Campinas IAC*; * initials in Portuguese

18 5. SUGARCANE GENETIC BREEDING University Network for Development of the Sugar-Ethanol Sector RIDESA It was founded in 1991 and owns 59% of the sugarcane planted varieties in Brazil; It represents a network composed by 10 federal universities located in various regions of the country and... Because of this, RIDESA can develop a wide range of sugarcane varieties suitable for different Brazilian climates and soils; In 20 years of history, it developed 59 sugarcane varieties; In March/2011, it presented 13 new varieties: 2 of them with features such as rusticity and water stress tolerance;

19 5. SUGARCANE GENETIC BREEDING Sugarcane Tecnology Center CTC This center was owned by COOPERSUCAR Sugar and Alcohol Producers Cooperative; currently, a private institution; It has the largest and the most complete collection of sugarcane germplasm in the country; When the collection was owned by Coopersucar, it was a public source of research, nowadays it is used only for CTC; CTC owns 38% of the sugarcane planted varieties in Brazil; Last year, CTC launched two new varieties with resistance to water stress; It is developing transgenic varieteis resistant to water stress;

20 5. SUGARCANE GENETIC BREEDING Agronomic Institute of Campinas - IAC It is the forerunner of the agricultural research in Brazil and it gave the start to study of sugarcane crop in the country; Between the 40s-50s, it launched the first Brazilian range of sugarcane varieties; It lost space in the 80s-90s with changes in the government public policies; IAC has been restructured and, in 2005, it founded the Advanced Center of Sugarcane in partnership with the State Government of São Paulo; It has experiments in the Central-West of the country for varieties resistant to water stress and high temperatures;

21 AVANCED CENTER OF SUGARCANE - IAC sugarcane seedlings grown for selection (April 13, 2012)

22 ADVANCE CENTER OF SUGARCANE - IAC Sampler of sugarcane varieteis avaible to plant. (April 13, 2012)

23 6. RESULTS In the first interviews carried out, some limitations for sugar and alcohol sector adaptation in Brazil were identified: 1. Long development period of a variety until it is ready for commercialization (12 to 15 years): To ensure the sectorial adaptation, the investment on adapted varieties must start now, since the 2050 scenarios show increase in temperature and in water stress; 2. Weakening of the public research system, giving rise to structural difficulties such as: lack of resources for hiring qualified personnel and buying modern equipment; lack of government financial support, forcing the breeding programs to get involved mostly with farmers urgent needs;

24 6. RESULTS 3. Incompatibility between private logic and technological change to tackle climate change 4. farmers are unaware of climate change scenarios and their consequences, so they don t invest in development of adapted varieties; The discussion about climate changes is strongly inserted in the academy, but it is widely discussed outside it; 5. Lack of public policies oriented for the sugarcane sector adaptation to support: The professionalization and organization of the sector to face the multinational companies competition advancing in sugarcane breeding and transgenic varieties; Innovations in soil improvement and crop management and so on;

25 IN CONCLUSION... There is a restructuration in course on the national system of sugarcane science and technology with the strengthening of old institutions, the emergence of new agents and change of government posture; Need for structuring public agronomic research with focus on adaptation to climate change in the industry; Dissemination of existing commercial varieties features by drought tolerance, resistance to high temperature and rusticity; Development of new varieties with the same features; Making the former bank of germplasm from Coopersucar public again allowing the expansion of the crosses of sugarcane varieties increasing the number of successes.

26 Thanks for your attention! for questions and comments:

27 REFERENCES MARGULIS, S. e DUBEUX, C. B. S. (eds.) Economia da Mudança do Clima no Brasil: Custos e Oportunidades. Coordenação geral Jacques Marcovitch. São Paulo: IBEP Gráfica, p. GONÇALVES, R. R. V. et al Análise comparativa do clima atual e futuro para avaliar a expansão da cana-de-açúcar em São Paulo. XVII Congresso Brasileiro de Agrometeorologia, Guarapari ES. Pinto, H.S. & Assad, E.D. Global Warming and the New Geography of Agricultural Production in Brazil. British Embassy, Anuário Estatístico da Agroenergia 2010/ Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Secretaria de Produção e Agroenergia Brasília, : MAPA /SPAE, 2ª ed., p. Furtado, A. T., Scandiffio, M. I. G. and Cortez, L. A. B. The Brazilian sugarcane innovation system. Energy Policy 39, 2011, p. HASEGAWA, M. A criação, circulação e transformação do conhecimento em redes de inovação: o programa de melhoramento genético da cana-de-açúcar do IAC. Dissertação de Mestrado. IG Unicamp: Campinas, SP., HASEGAWA, M. Avaliação das capacitações dos spinoffs gerados por programas de P&D: o programa cana do IAC. Tese de Doutorado. IG Unicamp: Campinas, SP., RIDESA Rede Interuniversitária para o Desenvolvimento do Setor Sucroenergético. Catálogo nacional de variedades RB de cana-de-açúcar / Rede Interuniversitária para o Desenvolvimento do Setor Sucroalcooleiro. Curitiba, p. CHALLINOR, A. Towards the development of adaptation options using climate and crop yield forecasting at seasonal to multi-decadal timescales. Environmental Science & Policy, 12 (2009), p DINARDO-MIRANDA, L.; MACHADO DE VASCONCELOS, A. C.; LANDELL, M. G. A. (editores) Cana-de-Açúcar. 1ª edição. Campinas: Instituto Agronômico, CORTEZ, L. A. B. (coord.) Bioetanol de cana-de-açúcar: P&D para produtividade e sustentabilidade. São Paulo: Blucher, 2010, p. 954.