Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction

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1 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 Request for Services N 2005/ Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Vietnam Country Study November 2006 Ref MWH rev. 0 This project is funded by the European Union A project implemented by MWH

2 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 TA Team: Roger Few (team leader) Authors: David Viner, Laurens M. Bouwer In partnership with: Nguyen Huu Ninh, Ngo Cam Thanh A study carried out for the Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group (VARG) with support from the European Commission REVISION DATE DESCRIPTION PREPARED BY (AUTHOR) REVIEWED BY 0 Nov 06 Vietnam Country Study D. Viner, L. Bouwer Michele Lombardini Ref MWH rev. 0

3 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Foreword This report has been produced as part of the project Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction, funded by the European Commission on behalf of the Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group (VARG). VARG is an informal network of bi- and multilateral institutions aiming to facilitate the integration of adaptation to climate variability and change into development processes through sharing of information and experiences. The report is based on a review of secondary information, a series of meetings, interviews and follow-up communications with experts in Vietnam, and discussions during an international VARG workshop in Geneva, Switzerland in October 2006 hosted by United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction and sponsored by DFID, DGIS, GTZ, OECD and SIDA. We are extremely grateful for the assistance and continuing input given to the project by all the country experts consulted, VARG and the participants in the international workshop (see Appendix 2). The findings from this study and the country studies in México and Kenya are summarised in the synthesis report for the project. Vietnam country study team: > David Viner, MWH Consultant (study leader) > Laurens M. Bouwer, MWH Consultant Vietnam country study partners: > Nguyen Huu Ninh/Ngo Cam Thanh, Center for Environment Research Education and Development (CERED), Vietnam Project team leader: > Roger Few, MWH Consultant Project risk assessment expert: > David Viner, MWH Consultant Project steering committee: > Maria Lamin, European Commission > Frank Sperling, VARG Secretariat/World Bank > Jessica Troni, UK Department for International Development > Maarten van Aalst, Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre > Silvia Llosa, UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction > Shardul Agrawala, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Technical assistance and logistical support: > MWH (Montgomery Watson Harva sa/nv) Funding for the project was provided by: > European Commission (EC): country studies and synthesis > UK Department for International Development (DFID): partnerships, international workshop > Netherlands Directorate-General for International Cooperation (DGIS): international workshop > German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ): international workshop > Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): international workshop > Swedish international Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA): international workshop Vietnam Country Study - November 2006

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5 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Table of Content 1. INTRODUCTION OVERVIEW Country background Climate hazard and disaster profile, and potential climate change impacts Typhoons and tropical storms Floods Approaches to disaster risk management Organisations Activities Approaches to climate change adaptation Activities under the UNFCCC Adaptation research activities and projects Current UNDP adaptation efforts CASE STUDY: NAM DINH PROVINCE Introduction Hazards and vulnerability Current risk from weather extremes Changes in risk resulting from climate change Current policy and practice Disaster preparedness Dykes and Levees Non-structural measures Adaptation needs/options Policy integration Flood protection Development of adaptation options Information base INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS Progress in integration Current mechanisms/incentives Current barriers to integration CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Conclusions Recommendations Climate and hazard information Communication of risk and planning tools Coordination Political momentum and institutional capacity Grassroots capacity and community involvement Financing adaptation...36 Vietnam Country Study - November 2006

6 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 ANNEXES...39 Appendix 1 - Sources Consulted...41 Appendix 2 - Experts Consulted...43 Appendix 3 - Working Terminology...45 List of Tables Table 1. Incidence of poverty (%) by region... 4 Table 2. Natural Disasters in Vietnam by decade, Table 3. Legislation relating to structural flood defences Table 4. Policies related to disaster risk management (from National Report 2005) Table 5. Selected Socio-economic variables for Nam Dinh, Red River Delta Region and Vietnam Table 6. Potential Run-off changes in the Red River by Table 7. Towards adaptation in Nam Dinh Table 8. Existing mechanisms and incentives that have helped, or may help, foster integration Table 9. Existing barriers to integration Table 10. Summary of key points List of Figures Figure 1. Map of Vietnam... 3 Figure 2. Projected climate changes for South-east Asia from a range of GCMs... 6 Figure 3. Organisational chart of the Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control... 8 Figure 4. The Disaster Cycle for the Second Strategy and Action Plan for Mitigating and Managing Disasters in Vietnam Figure 5. Nam Dinh province and Giao Thuy District in the Red River Delta, Vietnam Figure 6. Mapping of storm tracks during the 2005 season Figure 7. Rainfall Changes for the Red River Region, derived from Global Climate changes and regional scaling factors Figure 8. Mean Sea level at Hon Dau Station, Vietnam Figure 9. Annual variations in the number of Tropical Cyclones active in the North-west pacific Figure 10. Annual variations in the number of tropical cyclones making landfall in Vietnam or affecting the country over the period Ref MWH rev. 0

7 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ADRC Asian Disaster Reduction Centre MOST Ministry of Science and Technology CACC Capacity Building for Adaptation to Climate Change project NCAP Netherlands Climate Assistance Programme CCFSC Central Committee for Storm and Flood Control NDMP Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership for Central Vietnam CECI CERED CISDOMA Canadian Centre for International Studies and Cooperation Centre for Environment Research Education and Development The Consultative Institute for Socio- Economic Development of Rural and Mountainous Areas NGO NOAA NRC PRSP RAMSAR non-governmental organisation National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (United States) Netherlands Red Cross Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper Ramsar Convention on Wetlands CPWC Cooperative Programme on Water and Climate RCCCSD Research Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Development DANIDA DDMFSC DMC Danish International Development Agency Department of Dyke Management, Flood and Storm Control Disaster Management Center RCM SEA-START TAW regional climate model Southeast Asia Global Change SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training Technical Advisory Committee for Flood Defence (Netherlands) DMU DP DRM DRR ENSO GCM Disaster Management Unit disaster preparedness disaster risk management disaster risk reduction El Niño Southern Oscillation global climate model UNDP UNEP UNESCO-IHE UNFCCC United Nations Development Programme United Nations Environment Programme UNESCO Institute for Water Education United National Framework Convention on Climate Change GEF HMS ICZM IMF IMH Global Environment Facility Hydrometeorological Service integrated coastal zone management International Monetary Fund Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology UN-ISDR VARG VEPA United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group Vietnam Environment Protection Agency IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change VESDI Vietnam Environment and Sustainable Development Institute ISG International Support Group (MONRE and MARD) VNHLSS Viet Nam Household Living Standard Survey IVM MARD Institute for Environmental Studies Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development VNICZM VNRC Vietnam Netherlands Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project Vietnam Red Cross MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment WRU Water Resources University Vietnam Country Study - November 2006

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9 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction 1. INTRODUCTION This report has been produced as part of the project Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction, carried out for the Vulnerability and Adaptation Resource Group (VARG) with support from the European Commission. The general objective of the project is to assess, within a poverty reduction perspective: how and under which conditions can current disaster risk management practices help prepare for climate change; under which circumstances does climate change require changes in disaster risk management approaches; what lessons can be learnt from the exercise that could inform wider adaptation policy. The project uses grounded examples in Vietnam, México and Kenya and exchange of experiences across those contexts to provide insights into how a more integrated approach to disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation can be built. The country studies are designed to identify the extent to which current disaster management practices reflect future adaptation needs and assess what changes may be required if such practices are to address future risks, especially in low-income settings. Although risk assessments form part of the studies, we place the emphasis on the institutional capacity and constraints/opportunities within the policy process. Each study is based upon a review of secondary information and a series of interviews and meetings with a number of agencies, researchers, government departments and NGOs during a fiveday visit by members of the project team. Following initial analysis of these findings, further comment, feedback and input was received from country experts, several of whom subsequently participated in an international VARG workshop held in October 2006 at which the findings and implications of the studies were discussed. This document consists of five sections. Section 2 provides a national overview of present and future risks from extreme weather events and current approaches to DRM and climate change adaptation in Vietnam. This is followed in Section 3 by a case study designed to illustrate at a finer scale the implications of climate change for DRM approaches and practice. Drawing on the previous sections, Section 4 then presents an institutional analysis (for the country as a whole), assessing progress in integration of DRM and climate change adaptation and setting out a series of factors that may be contributing to or hindering that process. The concluding section, Section 5, commences with a summary statement on the extent to which present approaches may help prepare for climate change, before presenting a series of preliminary recommendations as to how approaches may need to change in order to meet future challenges. Key points discussed in the latter sections are also listed in tables, including a final summary table listing the main issues and possible means by which they could be addressed. NB The usage of terms relating to risk, vulnerability, disaster management and adaptation in this report is based primarily on standardised definitions provided by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN-ISDR). Please see Working Terminology at the end of the document (Appendix 3). Vietnam Country Study November

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11 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction 2. OVERVIEW 2.1. COUNTRY BACKGROUND Vietnam s long, narrow land mass spans the length of South East Asia s east coast, on the South China Sea, and its west borders Cambodia and Laos. Vietnam has an extensive coastline of over 3000km in length, and the majority of its population lives in these coastal regions. Vietnam is a relatively poor country that has had to recover from the damage of war, loss of financial support from the old Soviet Bloc, and the rigidities of a centrallyplanned economy. Since the mid-eighties, Vietnam has undergone major economic growth. The Doi Moi process (literally translated means change and newness ) has reformed economic policy and has decentralised markets, allowing foreign investment and impressive economic growth, doubling the size of the economy and raising many out of poverty (Ninh et al, 2006). However, this economic development has raised conflicts and compromises by placing stresses on the environment such as deforestation, land degradation, flooding, water pollution, over-fishing and waste, which place stresses on many communities and have created greater difficulties for many of the country s poor (Ninh et al., 2006). Many still remain in poverty, with an estimated 29% of the total population living below the poverty line in According to new poverty line standards, this amount would be higher. Figure 1. Map of Vietnam Vietnam is heavily dependant on its natural resources, particularly agriculture and fisheries. 80% of the country s population is rural and is largely dependant on the main food crop of rice, of which Vietnam is one of the world s largest exporters (IUCC, 1997). Whilst the country s large Delta regions in the North (the Red River Delta) and South (the Mekong Delta) provide fertile land for agriculture, the country is plagued by frequent natural disasters, specifically typhoons, tropical cyclones and flooding, which play a substantial role in inhibiting economic development. These delta regions are also densely populated, and with Vietnam s population of 80 million expanding at a rate of 1.4% (growth rate in 2000, MoNRE, 2003), these regions will incur greater pressures still in future. Regional differences in poverty incidence are indicated in Table 1. These may be related to the impacts of natural disasters, as the less disaster stricken south-east of Vietnam has experienced much higher growth rates in the past, compared to the Central Coast and North Central regions. However, Vietnam Country Study November

12 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 other factors, such as a better infrastructure and transportation system, play an important role as well (Benson, 1997). Table 1. Incidence of poverty (%) by region AREA Northern uplands Red River Delta North Central Central Coast Central Highlands South East Mekong Total Data source: General Statistics Office, Viet Nam Household Living Standard Survey (taken from NDMpartnership Framework and Action Plan ) Note: 2002 data are preliminary estimates. Rural households are typically 5 times more likely to live under the poverty line than urban households (2002 estimates from VNHLSS), and poverty in rural areas has declined much slower than in urban areas. The expansion of irrigation infrastructure may increase agricultural production. But is has been suggested that due to the lack of flood protection neither the government nor farmers are willing to invest in such infrastructure (Benson, 1997) CLIMATE HAZARD AND DISASTER PROFILE, AND POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Vietnam experiences a tropical monsoon climate. The wide range of latitudes and the marked variety of topographical relief means that the climate tends to vary considerably from region to region. Mean annual temperature ranges from C and a distinct seasonal difference is felt between the dry season in November to April and the warm rainy season from May to September (MoNRE, 2003). Mean annual rainfall ranges from 600mm to 5,000mm, 80-90% of which is concentrated in the rainy season. (MoNRE, 2003). The location and topography of Vietnam make it one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, suffering from typhoons, tropical storms, floods, drought, seawater intrusions, landslides and forest fires (Jegillos et al., 2005). Of these, the most damaging and frequent are typhoons, tropical storms and floods. Over recent decades, the damage due to natural disasters has increased drastically (Table 2) and this trend may continue in future as climate change is expected to alter the current storm system and precipitation regimes. 4 Ref MWH rev. 0

13 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Table 2. Natural Disasters in Vietnam by decade, (ADRC, 2002) According to MoNRE (2003), climate model simulations under a range of emissions scenarios suggest mean annual temperature changes for Vietnam of C by 2070, but further simulations based on a range of scenarios suggest that this change could be as great at 3-4 C (Climate Impacts LINK Project, 2003). Changes in precipitation are less certain, with a range of possible outcomes covering both increases and decreases in annual mean precipitation, but increases are generally suggested (MoNRE, 2003; Granwich et al., 1993). Regions affected by the North-eastern monsoon are expected to experience increases of 0-5% during the dry season and 0-10% in the rainy season (MoNRE, 2003) Typhoons and tropical storms Vietnam is affected by typhoon and tropical cyclone activity from the North-West Pacific ocean, with 4-5 events affecting the coast of Vietnam every year (MoNRE, 2003). These regular disasters cause extensive and repeated damage to buildings and infrastructure and losses to agriculture and fisheries, having a detrimental effect on the capacity of communities to develop and move beyond poverty (DW Vietnam, 2004). Breaching or over-topping of protective dykes in the event of storm surges from typhoons and tropical storms causes agricultural land to be flooded by salt-water and thus be rendered unproductive for several years. When this occurs frequently, resources in the community are insufficient to make repairs and the result is severe poverty and malnutrition (CCSFC, 2003). Furthermore, environmental degradation has contributed to Vietnam s vulnerability to storms and cyclones in recent years, mangrove destruction has left many regions less protected from the storm surges that accompany the storms (Tri et al, 1998). Vietnam Country Study November

14 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 The most intense and destructive storm in recent history was Typhoon Linda in 1997, which flattened entire communities leaving tens of thousands homeless, ha of rice fields destroyed, thousand of fishermen lost at sea and roads, dykes and bridges smashed (Tiempo, 1997). The frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones originating in the Pacific have apparently increased over the last few decades (Fan et al., 2006). In Vietnam, the decade had the largest number of typhoons, and during the decade the number of typhoons decreased (see also Figure 10). During recent years, the trajectories of typhoons has moved southward, and the typhoon season appears to have shifted to later in the year. Tropical cyclone and typhoon occurrences are expected to alter under climate change scenarios, as storms may become more frequent, more intense or change patterns of storm track (IPCC, 2001), and the typhoon season may become longer (Granwich et al., 1993) Floods Figure 2. Projected climate changes for South-east Asia from a range of GCMs Source: IPCC data Distribution Centre, 2004 More than one million people in Vietnam are at risk from annual flooding (based on 1995 population figures), a vast majority of whom are people living in the low lying Delta regions (Zeidler, 1998). In 6 Ref MWH rev. 0

15 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction the flood season, heavy rainfall upstream causes high discharges and large-scale annual flooding throughout September and October. This period of inundation can last even longer, up to 6 months depending on climate variability and topography (Wassman et al., 2004). These floods are added to by shallow tidal flooding at the coast. Projections of populations change and development suggest that, even without any changes in climate or sea-level, the number of people at risk is expected to rise by 60% by 2025 and the US$720 million of capital value currently at risk from annual flooding may increase ten-fold to make the total equivalent to 5% of Vietnam s GDP (Zeidler, 1998). Rising sea-levels will almost certainly occur and increase this risk even further. Sea-level rise of 30 centimetres to 1m over the next 100 years is expected, which is projected to cause the capital value lost every year to US$17 billion 80% of the country s annual GDP if no protective measures are taken (Zeidler, 1998). The increased risk is not restricted to coastal areas, in fact rise of river beds and backwater effects will also cause serious problems to inland river regions, with a total of km2 flooded annually (Zeidler, 1998). Changes to precipitation regimes expected under climate change scenarios will exacerbate flooding problems further. Most climate models indicate overall increases in precipitation (Figure 2) and the concentration of Vietnam s annual rainfall over a short rainy season makes the system sensitive to rainfall increases (MoNRE, 2003). Wet season rainfall increases are expected to increase peak flows considerably and reduce the return period of a 100-year event to 20 years (MoNRE, 2003) APPROACHES TO DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT This section outlines some key disaster risk management institutions operating in Vietnam and discusses their activities Organisations Disaster risk management in Vietnam is coordinated foremost by the Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control, which was founded in This Committee is chaired by the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development. Additionally, each sectoral ministry has a ministerial Committee for Flood and Storm Control that cooperates with the national central committee and offices at provincial level. Central government structures are complemented by a management system extending to provincial and local levels. Committees for Flood and Storm Control (CFSC) The main body for co-ordinating disaster management in Vietnam is the Central Committee for Storm and Flood Control (CCSFC) with the Department of Dyke Management and Flood and Storm Control in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development acting as its standing office (Rego, 2001). The CCFSC have responsibility for gathering data, monitoring flood and storm events, issuing official warnings and coordinating disaster response and mitigation measures. The CCSFC consists of representatives of the various relevant ministries, as well as the Department of Dyke Management, Flood and Storm Control, the Hydro-meteorological Service, and the Vietnam Red Cross (Figure 3). According to the organisational framework (from National Report 2005), the Central Committee is responsible for assisting the Government in: Observing and investigating the establishment and implementation of the annual flood and storm preparedness solutions and plans; Vietnam Country Study November

16 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 Issuing mandates on mobilizing labour forces, equipment, etc to respond to pressing situations which exceed local authorisation; Instructing localities how to overcome consequences caused by floods and storms; Organizing summing up workshops on disaster preparedness and mitigation to propagate experiences, lessons, and advanced technologies in disaster preparedness and mitigation in localities and sectors At the provincial, district and commune levels, local CFSCs are responsible for: Helping the equivalent People s Committee to implement flood and storm measures in the territory; Organizing dyke protection, flood and storm preparedness and mitigation; Flood recovery and rehabilitation. Figure 3. Organisational chart of the Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control Sector Committees Ministries and central sectors establish Sector Committees for Flood and Storm Control, which are responsible for: Building and implementing flood and storm preparedness and mitigation, protecting people, physical and technical materials under the sector s management Managing contingency materials and equipment in support of flood and storm preparedness and mitigation under the sector s management function Timely supply of materials, equipment, technologies, etc. to affected areas in emergency situations and support for flood and storm recovery, following the mobilizing mandates of the Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control 8 Ref MWH rev. 0

17 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Drawing out lessons in flood, inundation, and storm preparedness and mitigation and promoting them to localities and units in the sector. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) was established in November 1995 by merging several Ministries. The Department of Dyke Management, Flood and Storm Control (DDMFSC) is the organisation that has the task to maintain the dykes and flood defences. The director of the Standing Office of the CCFSC is also the director of the DDMFSC, which falls under MARD. The DDMFSC has a number of functions that relate to the management of dikes (Decree No. 355/TTg of Prime Minister, May 1996). They also implement all disaster prevention and mitigation activities ordered by the Government and Ministry (MARD). The Disaster Management Center (DMC) operates under the DDMFSC and thus the ministry of MARD. The task of the DMC is to coordinate with the National Hydro-meteorological Forecasting Center and provide information to the DDMFSC for flood and storm disaster mitigation. It also supports CCFSC in reservoir operation. The DMC issues warnings and directions for disaster management. (Decision No. 180NN-TCCB of MARD, January 1997). Hydro-meteorological forecasting is undertaken by the National Hydro-meteorological Forecasting Center, which falls under the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment (MONRE). The Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology under MONRE provides research and expertise for weather forecasting and climate modelling. Additionally, the Hanoi University of Science undertakes and provides predictions for wave height and direction as well as precipitation and drought. The ministry of MARD has established the so-called International Support Group (ISG). The ISG is a forum for dialogue in the agriculture and rural development sector in preparation for donor- Government Consultative Group (CG) Meetings. The Thematic Ad-hoc Group 2 of ISG addresses Hydraulic works development, disaster control and rural water supply, which focuses on strengthening coordination among Ministries and donors in water sector strategies and River Basin Organisations (RBOs). Vietnam Red Cross The Vietnam Red Cross (VNRC) are the major agency operating across the whole of the country that are involved in DRM. The VNRC have a range of activities operating at the country, province, district and commune level. The activities of the VNRC are related to minimizing impacts of disasters by raising awareness in communities on disaster preparedness, and organizing works of prevention and response to disasters as well as works of relief and recovery. An important project of the Vietnam Red Cross relating to disaster risk reduction is mangrove replantation in the coastal zone (for more details see subsection 3.3) Partnerships with international institutions The Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership for Central Vietnam (NDM-Partnership) is an association made up of voluntary members of Government, NGOs and donors. The objective of the NDM- Partnership is to establish proactive co-operation among concerned Government agencies, interested donors and NGOs, through regular information sharing and policy dialogue; proposing and recommending priorities in allocation of resources, and setting implementation modalities to effectively utilise Government, Donor, and NGO resources for mitigation of natural disasters (NDM Part- Vietnam Country Study November

18 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 nership, 2004). Although initially aimed at the Central Provinces of Vietnam, in response to the severe flooding disaster in 1999, the intention has been expressed to widen the partnership to the national level. Specifically, the partnership has set the objective to support the Government in implementing its development strategies, as set out in the Second National Strategy and Action Plan for Disaster Mitigation and Management, that are to reduce the number of deaths from 800 per year in the 1990s to 200 deaths per year in the period , and to reduce the economic losses caused by disasters from an average of 2% in the 1990s to below 1% of national GDP in the period (NDM Partnership, 2004). The Partnership has also recognised the long-term risk of climate change. The UNDP disaster reduction programme in Vietnam consists of a number of projects, among them the project Capacity building for Disaster Mitigation in Viet Nam ( ), which has helped to initiate the NDM-Partnership, and the project Support to the Disaster Management System in Viet Nam ( ), which has helped to establish a nationwide water disaster information and monitoring system Activities According to the extensive analysis of Benson (1997) the following natural disaster risk reduction measures can be recognised in Vietnam: 1. Structural measures The main approach to disaster mitigation in Vietnam is a system of 5,000km of river and 3,000km of sea dykes. This extensive dyke and levee system has been in operation for over 1000 years, built and maintained by the local community who were obliged to contribute 20 work days per year to their maintenance. This has since dropped to only 10 days per year due to pressures on human resources and economic restrictions, and is likely to reduce further in the future (CCFSC, 2003). Table 3 lists legislation relating to dykes and other defence works in Vietnam. Table 3. Legislation relating to structural flood defences > Ordinance on Dykes (1989) > Ordinance on Prevention and Control of Floods and Storms and Implementation Provisions (1993) > Law on Water Resources (1998) > Regulation on flood diversion and slowing (1999) > Decree on flood diversion and slowing (1999) > Decision on the works of flood and storm prevention (2002) > Dyke Management Law (draft 2006) Dykes are present mainly in the northern and central parts of the country. Along the Red River in the north many river dykes have been put in place as well as seawalls. Along the central coast, small river basins are present, and flooding along these rivers can be regarded as flash floods. Seawalls present here are lower than in the northern areas and frequently overflow and wash away. In the Mekong Delta in the south annual flooding occurs, and little has been done to protect the land from flooding. No dykes are present here, and water flows in an open channel system. In these areas, an extensive system of drainage channels and pumping stations has been put in place for agriculture. 10 Ref MWH rev. 0

19 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Dykes are often of poor quality as they consist mostly of earthen structures and have been built by manual labour. Sedimentation of stretches of rivers between dykes in response to the reduction of overbank areas has increased the flood risks as the river bed in some places has risen above the local topography. Also, the raising of dykes has increased flood risk as it has caused a false sense of security in the local population, leading to increasing investments in houses and infrastructure behind the dykes. 2. Non structural measures Non structural measures include mangrove re-plantation and windbreaks along buildings. Mangrove restoration has been demonstrated to improve conditions substantially, as mangrove offers protection from the storm surges which accompany tropical storms and cyclones. For example, restored mangrove in the Kien Thuy District of Northern Vietnam reduce a 4m storm surge brought by storm number 7 in 2005 to a 0.5 m wave, causing no harm in the region (Jegillos et al., 2005). A number of projects such as this have been introduced to vulnerable coastal regions of Vietnam and have proved very successful. 3. Building structures Poor housing is an important concern and the most important single cause of risk. There is however a large amount of traditional knowledge of appropriate building techniques. Building codes and landuse planning legislation and enforcement have been put in place, but further legislation may be needed as well as more strict enforcement. 4. Disaster warning and preparedness Forecast and warning is being carried out by the Vietnamese government for tropical cyclones and floods. There is no system for flash floods but research has started to look into forecasting possibilities. The national typhoon warning system delivers a 48 hour warning, based on a typhoon model that is operated by the Hydrometeorological Service (HMS). Real-time observational data is available from the Japan Meteorological Agency and China Meteorological Agency. In 2008 data will also be available from Vietnam s satellite Vinasat. The predicted typhoon path from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre is used for reference as well. During the flood season, dykes are monitored 24 hours per day. Warnings are broadcasted through TV and radio and in smaller communities through loudspeakers in the streets. In 1995, the CCFSC set up a disaster communication system which uses an electronic mail network to disseminate information to every province in Vietnam on a 24 hours a day, 365 days a year basis, exchanging disaster assessment reports between provincial and national levels, and passing disaster response directives to its staff in the field (Rego, 2001). However, the CCFSC have identified that the current systems for disaster warning are still severely lacking, often unreliable, and the procedures for issuing warnings suffer from a lack of modern communication technology and that public awareness of the threat of water disasters is low even though the risk of flooding is very high (CCSFC, 2003). 5. Post disaster relief Immediate relief efforts are well-organised and effective, but rehabilitation efforts could be improved, particularly for the poor. Vietnam Country Study November

20 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 Policies and plans for disaster risk management Table 4 lists a series of policies relating to DRM in Vietnam. These are reflected in successive national strategy plans for the country. Table 4. Policies related to disaster risk management (from National Report 2005) > Land policy and land use management > Policies for forest planting, protecting and forest management and exploitation > Policy on managing natural resources and exploitation management > Water resources management policy > Policy on environmental protection, sustainable development, and environmental management > Policies for flood diversion and retention and dredging riverbed for flood release > Policy for overcoming the aftermath of disaster in disaster-prone areas > Policies for living-with-flood areas After an international workshop on flood mitigation, emergency preparedness and flood disaster management in Hanoi in 1992, the First National Strategy and Action Plan for Disaster Mitigation was developed and approved in 1994 (updated 1995). The plan addressed the following important water-related disasters in Vietnam: river floods; flooding from the sea; increased runoff; erosion and siltation of river beds; slope instability, mudflows, and landslides; torrential rains in combination with strong winds; failures of water-retaining structures; and seawater intrusion into ground water The plan had three main goals: forecasting and warning, disaster preparedness and mitigation, and emergency relief. The Disaster Management Unit has since developed a Second National Strategy and Action Plan for Disaster Mitigation and Management for the period This addresses all major phases of the disaster cycle (Figure 4) and has the following ten basic principles: 1. Disaster planning will be based on multi-hazards identification and risk assessment; based on the different types of disaster hazard and different levels of disaster risk in different parts of the country. 2. Disaster preparedness and disaster forecasting are the preferred methods of disaster mitigation. 3. Disaster preparedness and disaster mitigation are the task of each local area throughout the country. 4. Measures for ensuring the long-term benefit of disaster mitigation for the whole community are to be given the highest priority. 5. Measures for reducing the risk of a particular type of disaster must be compatible with reducing the risk of other types of disasters. 6. All measures must be carefully considered, both for practicality and technology, and these measures have to be realistic in the Vietnamese context in its current and future state of development. 7. Reduction of disaster risk must be compatible with traditional disaster coping mechanisms of local people; and must support hunger eradication and equitable poverty reduction (HEPR). 8. Measures for disaster preparedness and mitigation must be consistent with the economic development level of each local area, as well as the desired general economic development of the country. 9. Measures for disaster mitigation must be compatible with measures for protecting the environment, protecting equitable development, sustaining natural resources and preserving cultural heritage. 12 Ref MWH rev. 0

21 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction 10. Co-operation and co-ordination between the central level of government, local level of government, state agencies, non-government organisations, and the general public must be well established using a bottom up approach starting at the grassroots level. Similarly, cooperation and coordination of external assistance needs to be strengthened and aggressively pursued. Figure 4. The Disaster Cycle for the Second Strategy and Action Plan for Mitigating and Managing Disasters in Vietnam. Local plans for disaster preparedness are also developed. The process for developing these on a yearly basis has been explained as follows by NRC (2006): Every year, the CCFSC sends out instructions to the provinces to prepare a DP plan for the local hazard situation. In the DP plan, there should be options for various hazards with preparation in human and material resources, facilities and equipment, strengthening of dykes and disaster prone areas, task assignments. These instructions are then cascaded down to the commune level. At the commune level, village heads are requested to provide information about their villages (hazards, high-risk areas, vulnerable people, available resources, etc.). The commune people s committee establishes a Committee for Flood and Storm (CFSC), comprising of heads of villages and mass organisations. The CFSC sends its teams out to do field surveys in villages. From the survey results and local resources, the CFSC standing members develop a DP plan with task assignment for its membership. The village heads are then informed of the plan at meetings who guide and instruct the local people in the implementation of the plan in the villages. Disaster reduction projects A number of donor supported projects are being carried out in Vietnam that support natural disaster risk reduction. A selection of projects is listed below (adapted from Danida, 2005). The Vietnam Netherlands Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project started in The first phase of the Project ( ) had the objective of establishing an Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) programme for Vietnam. The main aspect of this phase was the sustainable development of the coastal zone. The current phase of the projects aims to strengthen institutional Vietnam Country Study November

22 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 ICZM frameworks at the province level, as well as introduction of ICZM at the district level. Also, a first national ICZM strategy document will be set up. The Second Phase of the project is projected to start in The project is funded by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and is coordinated by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MoNRE) of Vietnam through its Viet Nam Environment Protection Agency (VEPA). The Vietnam Coastal Wetlands Protection and Development Project ( ), is aiming to re-establish the coastal mangrove wetland ecosystem, in particular in the area of the Mekong delta in order to support sustainable coastal protection. The project also aims to help poor people that depend on mangrove forests by helping them to move and resettle in the buffer zone and provide them with sustainable livelihoods. The project is funded by the Government of Vietnam, Danida and the World Bank. The Quang Ngai Disaster Mitigation Project ( ) the project aims to have a planned and effective response to disasters and is focussed on local communities in Quang Ngai province. A proactive approach could reduce the impacts of floods and other disasters on local livelihoods. The project is funded by the Australian Government. The Water Disaster Risk Reduction Projects in Da Nang City and Binh Dinh Province are under the Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership (NDM Partnership) for Central Vietnam. The aim is to mitigate the effects of water-related disasters on poverty and hunger, gender equality, environmental protection and sustainable development in the most vulnerable and poorest areas of central Vietnam. These projects of two years are carried out by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in collaboration with CECI and are funded by the Royal Netherlands Embassy, the Government of Luxemburg and UNDP. Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper A Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for Vietnam was completed in 2002, called the Comprehensive Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy. This paper mentions, among the major policies and measures to promote sustainable growth and poverty reduction, that in order to develop agriculture and the rural economy to achieve rapid poverty reduction, it is needed to develop a disaster prevention strategy to minimise losses and stabilise livelihoods and production in disaster-prone areas (PRSP 2003, p 69). It goes on to state that attempts must be made to: Strengthen the program on disaster prevention and mitigation, build the system of information collection and hydrometeorology forecasts, raise the awareness and improve the people s capacity to respond to natural disasters, build infrastructure and safe sites, build up reserves for emergency and train rescue teams. Establish the Fund for Recovery from Disaster to provide timely and effective assistance to the poor in case of disaster. Make efforts to set up the social safety net system such as the Hunger Prevention Fund, which may be utilised before the harvest period. Annually, State budget funds will be used to invest in building and mending dykes and in funding other flood and drought prevention facilities and to build flood prevention and distribution facilities in the North. In the Central region, continue to adjust the population master plan, build flood prevention facilities, lakes to prevent water overflow, provide financing for people to build houses on stilts to withstand the effects of flooding, complete the irrigation sea dyke system, estuary dykes and flood control, reduce losses from natural calamities, especially to ensure the safety of people s homes and ensure their normal life in the deep flood areas in the Mekong river delta during the high water season. 14 Ref MWH rev. 0

23 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Establish local flood prevention funds mobilised from contributions by the people according to government regulations. Furthermore, a reserve plan is needed to cope with weather problems APPROACHES TO CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION Activities under the UNFCCC The Initial National Communication of Vietnam (2003) has identified key sectors that are vulnerable to climate change, and where adaptation is potentially needed. A Vulnerability and Adaptation assessment has been carried out for the following seven sectors: Water resources Agriculture Forestry and land-use Aquaculture Coastal zone Energy and transport Human health The climate change scenario upon which the vulnerability assessment for the Initial National Communication is based was generated using the CCAM model from CSIRO, using the IS92A and B scenarios. It must be stated that these scenarios are not state-of-the-art in terms of the climate models used or the underlying socio-economic conditions. As a result, therefore, they must be used a guides rather than absolute values. Seven different regions were identified, for which the elements temperature, rainfall and sea-level rise were analysed for the periods 2010, 2050 and A number of adaptation options have been identified in these assessments, but no programmes to implement adaptation measures have been described. The Initial National Communication however describes one project that may contribute to the reduction of natural hazards. This is the Project on forest plantation on sandy soil in the coast of the Southern Central Viet Nam (project number 4 described in the Annexes). The project aimed at planting 5 million hectares of new forest, of which 60,000 hectares of coastal protective forest, during the period of Its main purpose was preventing sand movement in the central coastal zones. The Vietnam Second National Communication to the UNFCCC is in preparation and forthcoming in 2006 or According to Danida (2005), for adaptation, the focal areas will be water resources, coastal zone management and agriculture. MoNRE carries out the work, with support from UNEP/GEF Adaptation research activities and projects Several vulnerability and adaptation projects explicitly related to climate change have been carried out or proposed in Vietnam. Some are discussed later in subsection 4.1, but the more general ones listed by Danida (2005) include: The project Climate Change Impacts in Huong River Basin and Adaptation in its Coastal District Phu Vang ( ) is funded by the Netherlands Climate Assistance Programme (NCAP) and implemented by the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology and Department of Natural Resources and Environment in Hue, which are both part of MONRE. The project aims to strengthen the capacity of sectors, institutions and people, in order to reduce their vulnerability to water-related disasters. This is achieved by improving their understanding and preparedness and minimise negative Vietnam Country Study November

24 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 effects and losses. The main focus is on water resources and stakeholder involvement, and a stakeholder action plan (SAP) is to be developed. The Viet Nam Coastal Zone Vulnerability Assessment project ( ) assessed the vulnerability of the entire coastal zone of Vietnam to the effects of sea-level rise, and developed an approach for integrated coastal zone management in Vietnam. The project was undertaken by the Marine Hydrometeorological Centre of the Hydro-meteorological Center (HMS), with support from a European coastal zone management expert team. The project was funded by the Dutch Government. The Cooperative Programme on Water and Climate (CPWC) (2000 ongoing) is a network organisation focussing on climate change and water resources. The programme aims to improve the capacity in water resources management to cope with the effects of increasing variability of the global climate. A number of dialogue meetings were held in Vietnam and South East Asia, which have functioned as a platform for improved access to information on meteorology and climatology. The CPWC secretariat is located at UNESCO-IHE in The Netherlands. The Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMH) is carrying out a number of projects related to climate change impacts and adaptation. A recent effort involves the simulation of climate change using a regional model, with support from the Southeast Asia Global Change SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training (SEA-START) Regional Center, established in Also, it is involved in a project funded by DANIDA on the benefits of climate change adaptation from small and medium scale hydropower plants Current UNDP adaptation efforts A new GEF-funded project will be implemented in Vietnam over the period on community based adaptation. This project also covers Bangladesh, Bolivia, Guatemala, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Morocco, Namibia, Niger, and Samoa. This project aims to inform the GEF as well as national governments, donors and others, on how local-scale adaptation in different sectors and institutions can be supported. Additionally, two project proposals from UNDP that relate to climate change adaptation are pending for review at GEF; one on land degradation in the South Central Coast region of Vietnam; and a proposal for a comprehensive capacity building project for climate change adaptation ( Implementing long-term adaptation measures that increase the resilience of national development sectors to the impacts of climate change ). 16 Ref MWH rev. 0

25 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction 3. CASE STUDY: NAM DINH PROVINCE Using the case study of Nam Dinh Province on the Red River Delta in Northern Vietnam as illustration, this section investigates how effectively present DRM practices may be able to cope with future hazards, highlighting both how current approaches may help to prepare for climate change and how they may need to alter. This section is based on the literature review and interviews (both structured and informal) with individuals involved in DRM, with a particular focus on the impact of flooding on poor rural livelihoods. The aim is that the material in this section provides a case study example that will help ground and inform the national-level institutional analysis in Section INTRODUCTION Nam Dinh province is one of 11 provinces in Vietnam s Red River Delta Region in northern Vietnam (Figure 5). Nam Dinh lies 90 km south of the country s Capital, Hanoi, and is bordered by the provinces of Ha Nam (north), Ninh Binh (west) and Thai Binh (north-east), with 72 km coastline on the south-east. The Red River runs north-west to south-east, along Nam Dinh s north-eastern border. The province covers 1637 km2, of which 65% is agricultural, 3% forest, 15% specialised land and 5.7% residential (Vietnam Trade Information Center, 2001). Figure 5. Nam Dinh province and Giao Thuy District in the Red River Delta, Vietnam Nam Dinh Province lies in the Red River Delta Region, which, like the Mekong Delta region in the south of the country, is fertile and agriculturally highly productive. The low-lying land provides ideal conditions for wet rice cultivation and this high productivity has made the region one of the most densely populated and intensely cultivated areas of coastal Vietnam (Adger, 2000). Regions like this have doubled their agricultural output since the 1980s (Adger, 1999). Nam Dinh s close proximity to the Capital, Hanoi, means that transport and communication links are relatively good. Whilst the geography of the region brings productivity, it also means that the region is vulnerable to natural disasters. The low-lying land is subject to annual floods from the Red River, and also tidal flooding and saltwater intrusion from the coastline. The coastline is also vulnerable to tropical storms and cyclones, which bring destructive high winds, very heavy rainfall and storm surges several times a year. Vietnam Country Study November

26 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 Table 5. Selected Socio-economic variables for Nam Dinh, Red River Delta Region and Vietnam SOCIO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES NAM DINH PROVINCE RED RIVER DELTA REGION VIETNAM Area (km²) Population (millions, 1994) Population growth (est. %) Population density (persons per km²) 1,060 1, Urban Population (%) GDP (VND 000billion, 1993; 1989 constant) Food crop production per capita (kg rice equivalent per capita) (from Adger, 2000) 3.2. HAZARDS AND VULNERABILITY Current risk from weather extremes The Red River Delta region and in particular Nam Dinh Province is currently affected by large and rapid changes in floodwater levels. Inundation occurs annually, due partly to very high river-levels in the rainy season causing deep flooding in the Delta region, but also to tidal flooding at the coast, which brings shallower, saline flood waters to low-lying coastal regions. Figure 6. Mapping of storm tracks during the 2005 season. Photograph taken in the Nam Dinh CCFSC Office (Photo by Laurens Bouwer). Nam Dinh Province is currently protected by a system of dykes and levees which have been built and added to over the last 1000 years by the local communities (Jegillos et al, 2005). This system protects the precious agricultural land from inundation and allows the rice production on which the local economy is dependent. In addition to this annual cycle of flooding, the region is also subject to tropical storms and cyclones that bring high winds, very intense rainfall, flash flooding and storm surges. These events affect Nam Dinh several times a year, causing extensive and repeated damage to buildings and infrastructure and losses to agriculture and fisheries, upon which the communities of the region depend. Figure 6 shows the tracks of typhoons during the 2005 season. 18 Ref MWH rev. 0

27 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Changes in risk resulting from climate change Anthropogenic climate change is likely to increase existing risks in Nam Dinh. Whilst typhoons may not increase in frequency, evidence from studies in other regions of the world indicates a possible strengthening of typhoons (Emmanuel, 2005). There are a number of additional factors which also need to be accounted for in assessing changing risks to Nam Dinh province, including: sea level rise; changes in precipitation amounts and rates; and changes in wave height and steepness. Table 6. Potential Run-off changes in the Red River by 2070 CASE 1 CASE 2 CASE 3 > Temperature increases and total annual rainfall increases. > Daily Rainfall increases by 20%. > Temperature increases and rainfall decreases in rainy season, rainfall in dry regions increases. > Daily rainfall increases by 25% > Temperature increases and rainfall increases in both seasons. > Daily rainfall decreases by 10% (MoNRE, 2003) Annual Run off Low Flow Flood-top Discharge Present 2070 % Present 2070 % Present 2070 % Case Case Case (Kelly et al., 1996, in: Lien, 2002). Figure 7. Rainfall Changes for the Red River Region, derived from Global Climate changes and regional scaling factors Vietnam Country Study November

28 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 Regionally-scaled climate projections for the Nam Dinh province have greater uncertainty associated with them, with annual precipitation changes ranging from increases of 20% to decreases of 40-50% (Figure 7) (Lien, 2002). The implications for river run-off for a range of changes in climate are demonstrated in Table 6. It is likely that increases in total precipitation, and increases in intensity of precipitation, will cause increases in peak flows and further flood risk in the region. The low lying province of Nam Dinh is highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, which could be as much as 1m (IPCC, 2001). Such a rise would threaten 60% of the wetlands and cause inundation of cultivated agricultural areas (Zeidler, 1998). The Xuan Thuy RAMSAR site in Nam Dinh (Red River mouth) is particularly at risk (Zeidler, 1998). The loss of the coastal wetlands mangrove ecosystem in this region will have knock on effects for the vulnerability of the region to tropical storms and cyclones, as the mangrove systems protect coastal regions from storm surges. Sea level rise of around 1.5 to 2.0 mm per year is already evident in record for the last 50 years (Figure 8). Climate model simulations have also indicated that increased sea surface temperatures under a warmer climate will cause tropical storms and cyclones to become, on average, more intense, resulting in an increase in frequency of the most damaging storms. For Vietnam, there are also concerns that the cyclone season will become longer and that storm tracks will alter. (Granwich et al., 1993). An increasing trend in tropical cyclone frequency in the North West pacific may already be evident in recent records (Figure 9), but presently there is no indication of increases in the number reaching Vietnam (Figure 10). Note that the numbers shown in Figure 10 only represent the typhoons making landfall in Vietnam or those that are seriously affecting the country. The total number of storms observed off the coast of Vietnam may be higher. Figure 8. Mean Sea level at Hon Dau Station, Vietnam (Lien, 2002) Figure 9. Annual variations in the number of Tropical Cyclones active in the North-west pacific (Lien, 2002) 20 Ref MWH rev. 0

29 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Figure 10. Annual variations in the number of tropical cyclones making landfall in Vietnam or affecting the country over the period (data from Dr. Tran Thuc, IMH) number of typhoons An increase in the number of very damaging storms reaching Northern Vietnam, together with increases in vulnerability due to mangrove destruction and increased population pressure in the region in the future would cause an increase in risk in coastal regions CURRENT POLICY AND PRACTICE Disaster Risk Management is carried out at a local level within Nam Dinh Province. There is a well defined vertical structure for the demarcation of responsibilities and roles within Vietnam. Each province and subsequent district being responsible for implementation of national policies. The main focus of policies is the prevention of risk from identified natural disasters. In Nam Dinh, as already specified, the main re-occurring risk is from typhoons. A range of disaster risk management measures have been identified for Nam Dinh according to the draft Second National Strategy and Action Plan, though many have yet to be implemented and/or enforced. These are: Afforest and protect existing upstream forest watersheds to reduce downstream floods, Build large and medium scale reservoirs upstream on big rivers to retain flood water; Strengthen dyke systems to be able to resist design flood levels; Build flood diversion structures; Clear flood-ways to rapidly release flood water; Strengthen dyke management and protection works to ensure the safety of the dyke systems. Construct emergency spillways along the dykes for selective filling of flood retention basin. Designate and use flood retardation basins to decrease the quantity of flood water flow. Non-structural measures that have been identified include: Models for river flood forecasting have to be developed to give out prompt warnings and to be able to quickly carry out effective response measures. The national disaster committee and organisations for flood and storm control from central to local levels of government have to be strengthened to mobilise the work of flood and storm mitigation and management at all levels. Legal documents such as the Regulation on Flood and Storm Warning, Ordinance on Flood and Storm Prevention, Ordinance on Dykes, Regulations of the Government on construction of dykes, flood release, flash flood prevention, disaster relief, activities of standing offices for flood and Vietnam Country Study November

30 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 storm prevention, damage measurement and assessment, and other regulations have been prepared and need to be continuously reviewed and strengthened. Community disaster awareness should be enhanced through education, training, workshops, and circulation of disaster bulletins. Plans in accordance with all probable disaster situations have to be prepared that include disaster specific measures so that disaster damage can be mitigated. Shifting the cultivation season has to be studied as a measure to mitigate damage to agriculture production. Master plans have to be developed to mitigate hazards, to familiarise local populations, and to evacuate people where there is currently no available capability for limiting the impact of disasters that frequently occur in important localities. For each disaster occurrence, lessons learned and experience have to be collected for future application when a similar disaster occurs Disaster preparedness Typhoons have a clearly identifiable season and for this reason preparedness in Nam Dinh is high. Local commune speaker systems help provide information. Also there is a programme of education of the young (primary and secondary schools). The Nam Dinh Provincial Red Cross is charged with identification of areas at risk and educational activities. The organisation manages the inter-agency Natural Hazard Mitigation Centre which is responsible for co-ordination of DRM in the province. Climate change, in terms of anthropogenic change is not factored into DRM planning. The planning and mitigation for typhoons is undertaken on a seasonal basis. Nam Dinh is sub-divided into 10 clearly defined districts. Each of these districts is further divided into a number of communes. For example the Giao Thuy district has 21 communes (Figure 5). At the provincial level the Red Cross collates information and resources which is then passed down to the district level and hamlet level. At the provincial level education material is produced and training courses put in place to teach officials at the district level, this activity is then replicated at the district level to be passed on to individual communes. The Nam Dinh provincial Red Cross co-ordinates the activities of the individual districts. At the district level, for example in Giao Thuy, information is co-ordinated by Red Cross officials and passed back to the Provincial Red Cross. At each district level the Red Cross undertakes a risk assessment of individual properties and households. This risk assessment involves: Identification of vulnerable areas, based upon previous experience; Identification of vulnerable households, based upon exposure of property; Identification of vulnerable households based upon vulnerability of individuals, gender, age, physical ability; Analysis of dyke strength (visual inspection). Based upon the outcome of the risk assessment a number of possible actions are likely: Permanent evacuation (or managed retreat) of individual households, in Nam Dinh during 2005, 80 households were moved on a permanent basis; Structural strengthening of individual households to provide more robust defence against damage; Specific evacuation plans and training given to the head of each household in the event of a typhoon; Identification of resources required for dyke strengthening in each commune. In the onset of a typhoon, the Red Cross organises evacuations, under the auspices of the Natural Hazard Mitigation Centre. External help comes from other agencies such as the Women s Union. 22 Ref MWH rev. 0

31 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Special attention is given to the most vulnerable households in terms of disaster preparedness and relief. Warnings to fishermen are provided through radio contact (if available) or the firing of warning rockets organised by the Red Cross at commune level. Fishing boats are moved to safe areas inland away from open water and are rafted to ensure protection Dykes and Levees The dyke and levee system in Nam Dinh provides the first line of defence against tidal surges associated with typhoons. Nam Dinh Province has 72 kilometres of coastline, and is low lying with most land being at or just above sea-level. The province has 663 kilometres of dykes, of which 91.5 kilometres consists of sea dykes. Most sea dykes have been reinforced with concrete on the coastal edge, but they are liable to erosion on the leeward side if they are over-topped. In the context of risk reduction, the weakest spots along the dykes have been identified and are being reinforced. Identification of weak spots is based on location and dimensions of the Dyke with regard to the water levels that occur one every 20 years. Overall, the National Standard, based upon Russian designs for dykes was abandoned in This is replaced with design standards that are now based upon local knowledge and experience. Seadykes in Nam Dinh are built to withstand water levels and storms with a 5% recurrence interval, i.e. events that occur every 20 years. Within Nam Dinh dykes are currently built to withstand category 9 storms. However, dykes may fail at water levels that are lower than the design dyke height. The strength of dykes and their resistance to different failure modes - such as sliding of the inner or outer dyke slope, erosion of the dyke revetment, and piping, causing water to flow under the dyke and erode the dyke body - together determine dyke safety (TAW, 2000). There are four categories of dykes, of which only the categories 1-3 are eligible for funding from the national government; category 4 dykes are locally financed. The classification into these four categories of dykes mainly depends on the property and values at risk behind the dykes. The system of river dykes in Nam Dinh is adequate and to date none have failed, as there are no high river water levels. Flood retention areas and flood diversion structures are being used upstream of Hanoi, in order to avoid downstream flooding throughout the Red River catchment. Some of these schemes are being used for hydro-electrical purposes Non-structural measures The impacts of typhoons are mitigated by helping to replant mangroves. The Japanese Red Cross have provided funds for planting in six provinces and the Danish Red Cross have helped in Nam Dinh between Replanting the mangroves has been perceived as beneficial for disaster risk reduction by local government and population. A recent survey (Jelligos et al, 2005) found that areas that were protected by mangroves that otherwise often breached during storms experienced considerably less damage. However, the report goes on to stress that the exact benefit is difficult to establish, as other factors, such as the density and height of the mangrove forest, the coastal characteristics and the typhoon strength also influence the amount of damage incurred. The report also stresses that an assessment of the benefits of mangrove plantation would be helpful. Mangroves take about 8 years to reach maturity. Three species of mangroves are being used; the highest of which can reach 10 meters. The possibility for mangrove plantation depends on the type of soils/lands, and therefore mangroves cannot be expanded to entire coastal areas. Artificial plants/mangroves can physically protect dykes, where natural cultivation is not possible. This option could be further explored. Vietnam Country Study November

32 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 Other risk reduction measures include strengthening of homes and in some cases resettlement. Support was given by the Vietnam Red Cross to 1000 houses to help strengthen them against damage. In some areas of Nam Dinh Province people have been permanently relocated from the most vulnerable sites by the Red Cross ADAPTATION NEEDS/OPTIONS The Second National Strategy and Action Plan mainly focuses on structural measures for disaster reduction in Nam Dinh, such as reservoir building (often upstream of the Red River, north of Hanoi), and strengthening of dykes. In addition, upstream tree afforestation and mangrove afforestation are proposed as a non-structural measure. The DDMFSC that controls and maintains the dykes is strong and adequate in carrying out its tasks of maintaining and restoring flood protection structures. The emergency response to disasters also seems to be adequate, as the Vietnam Red Cross is well organised and present at different levels (national, province, district, commune) and is working closely with different community groups. A very important positive step in the development of risk management practices has been the plantation of mangrove forests in the coastal zone. These measures of restoring natural protection are very relevant in complementing the traditional measure of building dykes. Although the positive effects on coastal protection have to be assessed more precisely, preliminary investigations show that the mangroves are capable of protection the coast and in particular the dyke system that is present along the Nam Dinh coastline. Therefore, plantation of mangroves seems to be beneficial in upgrading the coastal protection system to prepare for more severe climatic conditions. At the same time, the mangrove plantations increase the amount of habitat for various plant and animal species and may also help diversify the livelihoods of local communities as they provide opportunities for fisheries. In Nam Dinh Province, current disaster risk management practices are focused on maintaining and if needed, restoring the current protection from flooding due to typhoons. Current disaster management as carried out by CCFSC in Nam Dinh is very much focused on response and relief, rather than disaster risk reduction. In view of climate change, response to disasters may be adequate at this moment, but the protection of livelihoods may be at stake. The preparation for future weather related risks in Nam Dinh Province may be limited for a number of reasons, and there are several areas in which progress is needed in reducing future risk (see also Table 7) Policy integration There is a lack of integration between policies for development and disaster risk reduction. Current government development policies, for instance, promote fisheries and shrimp farming in order to improve the livelihoods in Nam Dinh Province. However, in terms of vulnerability reduction of rural communities this may in fact be counterproductive, as fish ponds and other fisheries activities in the coastal zone appear to be much more vulnerable to weather extremes such as storms and floods than traditional agricultural activities such as rice production. Funding of the plantation of mangroves is currently entirely initiated and supported by donors (carried out together with the Vietnam Red Cross) and not by the government / CCFSCF or DDMFSC. As a consequence, there is no integration of these activities into local development policy. This may lead to ineffectiveness. For instance, in some places mangroves have already been cut again as local communities want to take up their fisheries activities in the areas where mangroves were replanted. Therefore land-use may also need to be regulated better, in order to avoid conflict between different economic, protective and ecologic functions of the coastal zone. 24 Ref MWH rev. 0

33 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Flood protection Current safety levels are such that the dykes can withstand a category 9 storm, which occurs roughly once every 20 years. In general dykes and sea walls at any location in Nam Dinh (and in the typhoonprone north of Vietnam) will fail if a strong storm makes landfall (e.g., Storm Number 7, September 2005). Therefore a small shift in typhoon activity or intensity could drastically increase the frequency of dyke breach, as current safety levels have little room for accommodating a more severe storm climate. There is not at present a single standard for the construction of dykes and sea-walls, leading to local differences in strength and safety. This problem has already been recognised at the national level, and the Faculty of Coastal Engineering of the Water Resources University is carrying out a study into establishing a single dyke standard for Vietnam. Also, dykes are only reinforced with concrete on the front (seaward) aside, and consequently dykes may erode on the back side once they are overtopped. There are only limited financial means for DDMSFC to improve dykes and sea-walls and funds are just sufficient for recovery. Priorities for strengthening flood protection lie at present with the city of Hanoi, for instance, rather than the rural areas. If more financial resources would be available, current practice may be able to minimise the risks. However, an analysis of the cost and benefits is needed in order to determine whether upgrading is warranted, and in which locations exactly. Alternatives, such as the possibility of integration of mangrove replantation into DDMFSC policy need to be explored as well. An assessment of the effectiveness of mangrove replantation is then also needed, in order to justify the investments for the Ministry of Planning and Investment Development of adaptation options Adaptation studies and policy that have been developed at the national level in the context of the National Communication of Vietnam under the UNFCCC have mainly looked at vulnerability and potential impacts. Some sectoral adaptation options have been broadly identified in the Initial National Communication, but these adaptation options have not been further developed or evaluated. National climate policies need to address the development and evaluation of adaptation measures on the ground, in particular measures that can link with and integrate into disaster risk reduction activities that are already part of daily business Information base At the local level there is awareness that climatic variations, mainly in response to El Nino and La Nina events, is influencing the frequency of storms in this area. There is also awareness that climate change may lead to a permanent aggravation in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events (this is also the case at the national level). However, it appears that at the national level, where climate studies are performed, there is a need to stimulate the capabilities for seasonal forecasting and prediction, as well as studies into climate change and climate change impacts (see also subsection 4.3). Table 7. Towards adaptation in Nam Dinh > Integrate disaster reduction policies into local development policy in order to effectively reduce vulnerabilities > Increase funds for coastal/flood protection, as current funds are just sufficient to maintain the status quo > Develop a single standard for dyke construction > Upgrade coastal protection, in order to reduce the frequency of dyke breaches > Assess the effectiveness of alternative measures such as mangrove replantation > Develop and evaluate practical adaptation measures that integrate with disaster risk reduction > Improve forecasting and modelling capacities at the national level Vietnam Country Study November

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35 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction 4. INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS This section combines findings from the desk review, the case study and discussions with key experts to explore more broadly at national-level the current progress in integrating adaptation and disaster risk management in Vietnam, across different sectors and weather-related hazards. Subsection 4.1 provides a summary of progress, discussing advances that are contributing either directly or indirectly toward inter-linkage. Subsections 4.2 and 4.3 then draw out a series of mechanisms (positive) and barriers (negative) that appear to have shaped how effective that process has been to date: for ease of comparison, these points are organised under a common set of themes PROGRESS IN INTEGRATION Overall risk reduction efforts are under way in Vietnam and may be reducing vulnerabilities for the long-term, including those associated with climate change. Though progress remains limited, specific advances relating directly or indirectly to integration of climate adaptation and disaster management have emerged in strategic policy, vulnerability and adaptation assessment, institutional coordination and projects sponsored by external agencies. A strategic policy approach taking a long-term view on disaster risk is provided by the Second National Strategy and Action Plan (draft, under revision): this plan has put more emphasis on disaster preparedness and forecasting than the First National Strategy and Action Plan. It also recognised the need to ensure the long-term benefits of disaster management, although disaster risk reduction was not emphasised as such. The Plan also reports what changes in climate are expected for Vietnam. The fact that climate change is being recognised as a threat in long-term natural disaster risk management is encouraging for the integration of climate change adaptation among other long-term issues into disaster risk management approaches. Assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change has been developed for the National Communication process to the UNFCCC. This work, undertaken mainly by the environment sector, has assessed potential impacts of climate change (including extreme weather events) on key sectors and identified adaptation options. Integration of institutions engaged in disaster management, climate risk and development remains a weakness in Vietnam, but there are positive examples of coordination to build upon, including the multi-scale framework provided by the CFSC system and the NDM-partnership for Central Vietnam. The latter is a partnership of government, donors and NGOs, and is focusing on the medium and long-term investments that are needed for disaster risk reduction. The Partnership may eventually be expanded to the national level. Many projects have started or are ongoing that relate to disaster vulnerability or to climate change adaptation, and others have recently been proposed, including UNDP-GEF projects on community based adaptation and implementation of adaptation (see Sections 2.3 and 2.4). But some projects also explicitly link climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. For example, the project Capacity Building for Adaptation to Climate Change project (CACC) undertaken by CECI and the Canadian International Development Agency, focuses on research, training, adaptation plans and awareness raising and advocacy. The adaptation plans consist of Safer Village Plans, for reducing community vulnerability, and Safer Production Plans for reducing the impact of natural disasters on agriculture and aquaculture production. The project Disaster Preparedness Concerned to Climate Vietnam Country Study November

36 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 Change of the Netherlands Red Cross has held campaigns on disaster preparedness and climate change. It also has produced information materials, among them a chapter on disaster preparedness and climate change for the Disaster Preparedness Manual of the Vietnam Red Cross. However, it is important to note that these projects are mainly donor-driven and there may be opportunities to expand the initiation and financial support of these activities to a broader group of actors CURRENT MECHANISMS/INCENTIVES Drawing on the findings presented so far in this report, we highlight a series of existing mechanisms and incentives that are currently fostering integration or have the potential to do so (see also table 3). These are listed under a set of themes common to each country study. Climate and hazard information Scientific capacity exists for climate modelling and forecasting, coupled with a system for disseminating warnings for tropical cyclones and floods Though some studies have been done on climate change scenario construction, efforts presently focus primarily on current risk, as research groups have only recently started to work with general circulation models for Vietnam. Climate modelling and forecasting capacities at research groups in Vietnam are good. For instance, the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMH) is doing research for improving typhoon modelling. The National Hydrometeorological Forecasting Center has an operational model for typhoon warning. Also, the Faculty of Hydrology and Oceanography at the Hanoi University of Science is performing research into typhoon modelling. The aim is to increase the accuracy, and couple the meteorology to the oceanography, in order to be able to model storm surges. They forecast storm surges and waves, and forest fire risks during droughts. This information is also used by the Disaster Management Unit at MARD. The application of RCM work for the region of Vietnam has just started at the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology together with the SEA-START Regional Center aimed at constructing climate scenarios for the lower Mekong River. Communication of risk and planning tools On-the-ground risk assessments take place at local scale and incorporate aspects of both physical and social vulnerability The risk assessment work of the Vietnam Red Cross in Nam Dinh Province takes an integrated approach in terms of poverty and development, providing information not just on past exposure to hazards but also on social vulnerability of households. The work currently provides a basis for planning preparedness activities, but could be modified to promote local-scale planning for long-term risk reduction and climate change adaptation that takes social factors into consideration. Coordination Both in the area of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, groups have been formed to better coordinate related activities of government and donors At a meeting in January 2006 with members of MONRE, MARD, Vietnam Red Cross and donors (UNDP, Swiss Embassy, Danish Embassy, Danida), it was agreed that a Thematic Ad-hoc Working Group would be formed on the theme of climate change adaptation. The group will be headed by the Deputy Director of the International Cooperation Department at MONRE. However, this group at present is an informal body and does not yet have a clear mandate. An existing institutional coordination mechanism is the Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership, which combines efforts of government and donors. In its Framework and Action Plan, the partnership recognises that climate change may impact on the frequency and severity of extreme weather events (NDM Partnership, 2004: page 16). 28 Ref MWH rev. 0

37 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Political momentum and institutional capacity There is growing awareness of future risks reflected in strategic policy on DRM that also incorporates consideration of poverty reduction and environmental sustainability. There are also inherent signs of flexibility in DRM planning. The topic of weather and climate hazards has long been a priority concern and climate change risk is also gaining political momentum. The Second National Strategy and Action Plan (currently under revision) is the main guiding document for developing and implementing disaster risk management policy in Vietnam. This Action Plan explicitly mentions climate change as an important issue for future disaster risk management practices (DMC, 2001: page 12). It also emphasises that disaster management approaches should be compatible with poverty reduction and sustainable development goals. Poverty reduction policies (e.g. PRSP s) also stress the importance of weather extremes and disaster risks reduction for poverty alleviation. Additionally, there are inherent signs of flexibility of approach in DRM in Vietnam a key asset for progress on adaptation under conditions of uncertainty. The national Action Plan emphasises the need to implement lessons learned, and planning for typhoons and other disasters is regularly updated at different levels of government. Grassroots capacity and community involvement Community projects on adaptive capacity combine with an existing system of local scale involvement in DRM planning Various grass roots and community activities and awareness raising activities are taking place in Vietnam. Vietnam Red Cross activities (supported by International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies) are carried out that aim to educate both the VNRC staff as well as local communities about the links between climate change and weather risks. Projects by CECI aim at similar objectives, by developing safer city plans and implementation of disaster risk reduction and adaptation measures at the local scale. The system of DRM in Vietnam already operates at a combination of scales, with the operation of CFSCs and the Red Cross down to district and commune/ward levels, and the Action Plan emphasises the need for coordination starting at the grassroots level. Financing adaptation External funding has already been attracted for adaptation projects Coastal management projects have been highlighted in particular by external agencies, with, for example, major funding for mangrove reforestation projects to mitigate present and future typhoon damage. Proposals for further projects are currently being targeted to the GEF. Table 8. Existing mechanisms and incentives that have helped, or may help, foster integration > Strong DRM focussed agencies at different levels: CFSC system and DDMFSC > Good capacity for weather and climate modelling > Presence of an operational forecasting and warning system > Cross sectoral dialogue through NDM partnership and Ad Hoc Working Group on Adaptation > Local scale risk assessments of social and physical aspects by VNRC > DRM strategic policies incorporate poverty reduction and environmental sustainability > Community level activities in DRM through CFSC > Various grassroots activities in DRM and climate adaptation by VNRC and donors > Ongoing and new proposals for external funding of DRM and adaptation projects Vietnam Country Study November

38 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No CURRENT BARRIERS TO INTEGRATION Drawing on the findings presented so far in this report, here we highlight a series of barriers to linking climate change concerns with disaster risk management in Vietnam (see also table 4). Climate and hazard information Shortcomings exist in short-term and long-term modelling and forecasting capacity Research groups suffer from inadequate access to data, especially real time information, mostly from satellites, in order to do better predictions. In particular assimilation of different types of data for their models is needed. The data that is accessible for free (e.g. from NOAA websites) is not sufficient, as it is not available in real-time and may lack spatial and temporal resolution that is needed for accurate calibration of operational modelling and forecasting. Also, there is a general lack of information and analyses of data on current temperature and climate change in Vietnam, which may convince policymakers of the seriousness of the problem. Communication of risk and planning tools Vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A) assessments are limited in scope and methodology The assessments that have been done for the Initial National Communications were based mostly on technical aspects, and less on economic and social aspects of climate impacts and adaptation needs. Additionally, these assessments were mostly qualitative rather than quantitative. On the basis of these qualitative assessments adaptation options were identified. Analyses of climate impacts and adaptation options that would be useful for policy development and decision-making purposes need to draw from quantitative analyses, in order to decide on effectiveness, benefits and costs. The need for more quantitative assessments of impacts and adaptation, and inclusion of economic and social aspects, was raised by the interviewees during the project. Coordination There is a lack of cross-sectoral integration and issues in coordination between government and other agencies The issues that link climate change and water management are split between the ministry of the environment (MONRE), which deals with climate change and with water management at the state level, and the ministry of agriculture and rural development (MARD), which deals with natural disasters and water management for irrigation. As mentioned earlier, the Second National Strategy and Action Plan emphasises that disaster management approaches should be compatible with poverty reduction and sustainable development goals. However, the policies of different ministries that are working in disaster risk reduction, rural development, poverty alleviation and land-use regulation appear to be not well integrated yet. An important reason for this is that the main governmental body that deals with disasters, the CCFSC, is only actively coordinating between different ministries in the event of a disaster. The promotion of fisheries activities to raise incomes in the coastal zone, for example, may run counter to objectives of vulnerability reduction. Similar problems of coordination have arisen between some project objectives of donors and local development policy, leading, for example, to problems of sustainability in some mangrove reforestation projects. 30 Ref MWH rev. 0

39 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Political momentum and institutional capacity In DRM practice, the focus appears to remain on emergency response and reconstruction rather than risk prevention and adaptation Most of the current disaster management practices in Vietnam are geared towards response and recovery and reconstruction. The CCFSC, the main organisation dealing with weather related disasters is focusing on response and not so much on preparedness or long-term risk reduction. Although the Second National Strategy Plan does put an emphasis on the need to reduce risks and does also mention the potential impacts of climate change for disaster risk management, it seems that this has not yet been translated into policy implications for disaster risk reduction activities. Dykes, for example, are rebuilt to the original dimensions after a storm, as there is only a small budget for the routine maintenance of dykes. It appears therefore that there is a clear need to demonstrate the benefits of disaster risk reduction, including explicit appraisal of the benefits of creating stronger dykes. There may also be a focus in disaster risk management towards protecting the more urbanised areas. Those projects in Vietnam that already link adaptation to disaster risk reduction tend to be strongly donor driven, as there is a lack of expertise on these issues at the administrative agencies. Therefore, ministries and government organisations have yet to demonstrate ownership of an adaptive approach to future risks. Additionally, the projects are geographically and sectorally limited, as most focus on the central provinces of Vietnam and are primarily within the sector of coastal zone management (ICZM) and coastal protection. Financing adaptation DRM suffers from inadequate financial resources to meet present needs, and little internal financing is available for climate change adaptation The country s current national plan for protection from future flooding, for example, includes dyke strengthening and upgrading, raising houses to higher levels and additional pumping measures and will cost US$6.5 billion which is one third of current GDP (Zeidler, 1998). However, these plans do not take into account sea-level rise due to climate change. A protection strategy which takes into account a 1m sea-level rise is estimated to cost a further US$2.4 billion, bringing the total protection plan to US$9 billion (Zeidler, 1998). However, these costs may be higher if 5,000 km2 in Red River Delta and 20,000 km2 in Mekong Delta will be inundated (IPCC Fourth Assessment report, in preparation). Table 9. Existing barriers to integration > Real time (satellite) information for operational forecasting needs improvement > Assessments of vulnerability and adaptation have been mostly qualitative > Social and economic impacts of climate change and adaptation options have not been studied adequately > Need for improvement of integration between environmental and DRM domains > Need for improvement of integration between poverty alleviation/rural development and DRM domains > Focus on response and recovery rather than vulnerability reduction or adaptation > Linking DRM and climate adaptation is mainly donor driven > No cost/benefit analysis available for decisions on coastal protection/dyke strengthening > Limited financial means for current risk management and dyke (re)construction > Limited financial means for risk reduction and adaptation efforts Vietnam Country Study November

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41 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction 5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1. CONCLUSIONS Climate change is expected to bring increased disaster risk to Vietnam, mainly from changes in precipitation and typhoons. The amount of rainfall is generally expected to increase, and may become more intense. Storms may become more frequent, stronger or patterns of storm tracks may change. If not properly dealt with, such changes in precipitation and storms will lead to an increased frequency and magnitude of flash floods, seasonal river floods and coastal floods in many parts of Vietnam. Sea-level rise of between 30 centimetres to 1 meter within the next 100 years is expected, which may increase the flood risk in low lying coastal areas. As temperatures in Vietnam increase, droughts can become more frequent and intense. The analysis of the Vietnamese case example highlights current linkages in disaster risk management (DRM), climate change adaptation, current mechanisms and barriers. In terms of current disaster risk management there is a defined vertical structure in Vietnam, which allows for national policies to be implemented at all levels including provincial, district and commune level. This appears to work well from a top down perspective. The agencies responsible for DRM co-ordinate their activities and have defined well-demarcated roles. At the provincial level the main threats from present and future extremes appear well identified (e.g. typhoons and flood control in Nam Dinh Province, especially Giao Thuy District) and strategies and practices designed to minimise associated impacts that are well tested appear to function. For structural mitigation, the main failings in long-term DRM are resource related. For the coastal zone, this primarily includes lack of a strategy to upgrade and maintain dykes at the hamlet, district and provincial level, and progress to integrate climate change into upgrading of coastal protection is limited. There is a shortage of information on the potential impacts of climate change at the provincial, district and commune levels. Other key shortcomings in integrating climate change adaptation and disaster risk management include those relating to information, assessment, coordination, policy prioritisation, and the integration of risk reduction with support for the livelihoods of the poor. From the case study of Nam Dinh Province and wider national analysis there have been number of areas and actions identified that are likely to improve integration and at the same time produce linked climate change adaptation and poverty reduction policies RECOMMENDATIONS We present here a series of recommendations, drawing from input to the Vietnam study, from feedback from country experts and from an international VARG workshop held in Geneva 2-4th October The recommendations are made with multi-hazard and cross-sector consideration, and highlight mainly aspects of technical and institutional capacity, and means to strengthen the policy process for linking climate change and disaster management in the context of poverty reduction. Vietnam Country Study November

42 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No Climate and hazard information Improve modelling and forecasting capacities There is a need to stimulate the capabilities for seasonal forecasting and prediction, including the relationship between ENSO and extreme events, together with investment in studies on long-term climate projections. Current research groups and hazard assessment institutions present in Vietnam are well suited to this, but there is a need to stimulate the capabilities, access to data and joint research efforts between Vietnamese and other research groups. The Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) together with donors could support this. However, the ministries of MONRE and MARD also have research budgets that could support improvement of capacities. Invest in studies on climate change impacts and adaptation The recently formed Ad Hoc Working Group on Adaptation could take up the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation options. However, this group has just started and does not yet have a clear mandate. Therefore, both MONRE and MARD also have a role contributing to such assessments. An emphasis would need to be placed on the economic and social aspects of climate change impacts and in the evaluation of adaptation options. The Vietnam Second National Communication to the UNFCCC provides an opportunity to analyse and report on possible adaptation measures that go beyond the more qualitative and general recommendations that were made in the Initial National Communication. New methodologies for the assessment of vulnerability and resilience to cope with climate change need to be used. Additionally, aims on disaster risk reduction defined in the Hyogo Framework for Action could be linked to the climate adaptation activities Communication of risk and planning tools Develop existing local vulnerability assessment mechanisms to consider long-term risk and adaptation needs Build on the existing capacity for analysis of vulnerability by local-scale institutions in Vietnam, by developing awareness, knowledge and assessment techniques relating to potential climate change impacts on extreme events. The Capacity Building for Adaptation to Climate Change project (CACC) of CECI has shown that it is possible to stimulate awareness and planning at the local level. Similarly, Vietnam Red Cross has worked to inform local personnel on the impacts of climate change through their Disaster Preparedness Manual. However, the development of assessment techniques for adaptation needs will require further work on methodology at central level and training programmes for local level personnel. Evaluate alternative adaptation measures for coast protection New assessments of adaptation options could focus on cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit aspects of alternative adaptive measures. One urgent task is to perform cost benefit analysis of current coastal protection measures. The current policy of managed retreat that is occasionally carried out (permanent evacuation) of vulnerable households (and communities) may be unsustainable: this policy brings about the need for re-settlement of households and displacement of land coupled with the loss of agricultural land of fishing infrastructure. A cost benefit analysis will allow for a demonstration of the needs for a programme of implementation of dyke design and strengthening/rebuilding that will take into account the increased risks associated with climate change. A dike improvement programme may have immediate benefits, as it reduces the costs of damage recovery that are associated with the 4-5 storms that make landfall each year. 34 Ref MWH rev. 0

43 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Coordination Improve integration of policies by strengthening coordinating institutions Disaster risk reduction, poverty alleviation, rural development and agriculture and fisheries policies are sometimes contradictory. As many of these policies are already part of the responsibilities of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), there may be opportunities to better integrate different policies with each other. The current Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership, when active at the national level, may also be a suitable platform to integrate rural development and risk reduction concerns. As MARD is already very well placed to carry out disaster risk management activities, they seem to be the most suitable agency for coordination of the integration of climate change adaptation into disaster risk management. However, as the five-year plan of MARD on flood and storm control also includes the priorities from other agencies and ministries, there is an important role for MONRE to provide information and insights on climate adaptation. Make mangrove replantation the task of DDMFSC There is a case for expanding the range of options of DDMFSC to protect the coast and agricultural areas from weather hazards. For instance, mangrove replantation efforts that are currently fostered by the VNRC and donors could be integrated into the routine work of the DDMFSC, complementing the traditional coastal protection efforts by dyke building and maintenance. Better integration of coastal protection and local development policy would also be possible if there would be a closer cooperation and tuning of policies between the departments within MARD working on rural development and policy alleviation, and the departments within MARD working on disaster risk management and dykes Political momentum and institutional capacity Promote a shift away from responsive measures and towards pro-active disaster risk reduction. The Second Strategy and Action Plan draft already promotes such an approach, but pro-active disaster risk reduction now needs to be put in practice. This may include, but is not confined to, structural risk reduction measures such as dyke strengthening. As the improvement of dykes is a relatively inflexible solution, there is a need to decide on dykes versus alternatives that have also additional benefits for local community livelihoods and ecology. Such measures could consist of expanding mangrove replantation activities. Shifts to alternative livelihoods that are less susceptible to typhoon and flood damage may also be important, as it has been shown that fisheries activities that are often promoted seem to be much more vulnerable than traditional agricultural activities. However, the implications for poverty alleviation of such policy should be assessed. Strengthen use of building codes and land-use planning legislation Specific recommendations include more strict enforcement of building codes and land-use regulations to reduce risk of damage to dwellings and other infrastructure, and stronger regulation of land use in coastal zones to balance economic uses of land with the protective and ecological functions. This particularly relates to vulnerable locations, such as mangrove areas. Further legislation may be needed to achieve a more sustainable use of the land in coastal areas. Vietnam Country Study November

44 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No Grassroots capacity and community involvement Build adaptive capacity at local level within the CFSC system A national network of local scale disaster management organisations already exists via the nested system of flood and storm control committees. These inter-sectoral committees are presently expected to produce annual disaster preparedness plans. With capacity building including awareness raising and technical training, they may be a logical vehicle through which to promote local level adaptation. Increase attention to strengthening livelihood resilience and other non-structural means to reduce risk The Second Strategy and Action Plan draft already suggests the need for studies on changing cultivation seasons in order to reduce typhoon and extreme events damage to crops. There needs to be further investigation and analysis of potential measures that can help poor households prevent and mitigate damage to assets and livelihoods and promote resilience in the face of changing risks Financing adaptation Support state budgets for structural and non-structural risk reduction measures As recommended in the latest PRSP for Vietnam, an integrated programme of investment is required in dyke strengthening and flood prevention structures together with measures in climate forecasting, emergency response capacity, evacuation sites and recovery funds, and adaptive measures toward protection of livelihood assets such as development planning and flood-resistant housing. Funds from donors and international development agencies could support the necessary capacity building for scientific research on vulnerability and adaptation in Vietnam. Where the cost-benefit case is clear, direct funding to coast protection Coastal zones in Vietnam are among the most vulnerable locations to disaster risk: they are also home to much of the population. Risk reduction along the coast is an urgent priority, as current funds are barely sufficient to maintain the status quo let alone adapt to rising sea levels and changes in typhoon hazards. Within the institutions responsible for civil protection, such as the CCFSC, there is already in-house knowledge and expertise in place to reduce risk if there was sufficient budget to allow for a thorough programme of research, design and implementation of mitigation projects. Funds to do this may come from the central government. The Ministry of Planning and Investment may decide on a larger budget for the DDMFSC in order to reduce vulnerabilities and improve and strengthen coastal protection, if appropriate decisions could be made on the costs and benefits of such investments. Drawing both on sections 4 and 5, Table 5 (overleaf) provides a summary of the key issues and associated recommendations relating to linkage between DRM and climate change adaptation in Vietnam. Under the column on Activities, suggestions for actions that might be considered appropriate for donor support have been highlighted in coloured font. 36 Ref MWH rev. 0

45 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Table 10. Summary of key points ISSUES RECOMMENDATIONS ACTIVITIES > Real time (satellite) information for operational forecasting needs improvement > Vulnerability and adaptation assessments have been mostly qualitative > Social and economic impacts have not been studied adequately > Need for improvement of integration between poverty alleviation/rural development and DRM domains > Need for improvement of integration between environmental and DRM domains > DRM focus remains on emergency response and reconstruction rather than prevention and adaptation > Linking DRM and climate adaptation at the local level is mainly donor driven > Inadequate financial resources to meet present DRM needs > Little internal financing for risk reduction and adaptation efforts Specific areas where donor agencies could engage Improve modelling and forecasting applications Invest in studies on climate change impacts and adaptation Improve integration of policies by strengthening coordinating institutions Promote a shift away from responsive measures and towards proactive disaster risk reduction Build adaptive capacity at local level and policy advocacy Support state budgets for structural and nonstructural risk reduction measures > Stimulate capabilities, access to data and joint research efforts, with support from research budgets of MONRE, MARD and the Ministry of Science and Technology, and donors > The Working Group on Adaptation as well as MONRE and MARD should take up the integrated assessment of adaptation options > Economic and social dimensions of impacts and adaptation measures should be considered > MARD should take up coordination of the integration of climate change adaptation into disaster risk management > The Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership should aim to integrate rural development and risk reduction concerns > Evaluate alternative protective measures for coastal protection > Make mangrove replantation the task of DDMFSC > Promote alternative livelihoods that are less susceptible to typhoon, flood and drought damage > Strengthen use of building codes and land-use planning legislation > Local vulnerability assessment mechanisms should be developed to consider long-term risk and adaptation needs (e.g. CACC project by CECI) > Build adaptive capacity at local level within the CFSC system > Increase attention to strengthening livelihood resilience and other non-structural means to reduce risk > An integrated programme of investment is required in dyke strengthening and flood prevention, climate forecasting, emergency response and evacuation, recovery funds, and adaptive measures > Where the cost-benefit case is clear, direct funding to coast protection Vietnam Country Study November

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47 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 Request for Services N 2005/ Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction Vietnam Country Study - Annexes November 2006 Ref MWH rev. 0 This project is funded by the European Union A project implemented by MWH

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49 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction APPENDIX 1 - SOURCES CONSULTED > Asian Disaster Reduction Centre (ADRC) th Century Asian Natural Disasters Data Book.. > Adger, W.N. 1999: Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastal Vietnam. World Development 27, > Adger, W.N. 2000: Institutional adaptation to environmental risk under the transition in Vietnam. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 90, > Benson, C. 1997: The economic impact of natural disasters in Viet Nam. Working Paper 98, Overseas Development Institute, London, 121 pp. > Danida 2005: Climate Check in Viet Nam: Final Country Report. 31 pp. > DMC 2001: Second National Strategy and Action Plan for Disaster Mitigation and Management in Vietnam: Disaster Management Center, Hanoi, Vietnam, 58 pp. > DW Vietnam (2004) Disasters and Vulnerability Reduction. > Emanuel, K., 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, > Fan, D.D. and Li C.X., 2006: Complexities of China's Coast in Response to Climate Change. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2 (Suppl. 1), > General Statistics Office of Vietnam (2006) Population and Employment. > Granwich, S., Kelly, M., Nguyen, H.N.(Eds) (1993) Global Warming and Vietnam A Briefing Document. University of East Anglia, Norwich. > Information Unit on Climate Change (IUCC) (1997) Vietnam and Climate Change. > Initial National Communication 2003: Viet Nam Initial National Communication Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Hanoi, 135 pp. > PRSP 2003: The Comprehensive Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy. Hanoi, November 2003, 125 pp. > Jelligos, S.R., Lunde, G., Kawate, H., Dzung, T.V. (2005) Final Evaluation: Vietnam Red Cross mangrove and Disaster Preparedness in the Red River Delta and Northern Coastal Vietnam ( ). The Danish Red Cross. > Kelly, P.M., Lien, T.V., Ninh, N.H-u. (1996). Climate Scenarios for Vietnam. Project: Socio-economic and Physical approaches to Vulnerability to Climate Change. Hanoi 33p. > Kelly, P.M. and W.N. Adger 2000: Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation. Climatic Change 47, > Lien, T.V. 2002: Climate change scenario for Red River catchment. Civil Engineering & Management Research Report 2002 W-007 / WEM-007, University of Twente, The Netherlands, 29 pp. > Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MNRE), Socialist Republic of Vietnam (2003) Vietnam International Communication. > National Report 2005: National Report on Disaster Reduction in Vietnam. Prepared for the World Conference on Disaster Reduction, Kobe-Hyogo, January pp. > Ninh, N.H., Luat, H.N., Son, N.D. (2005) Environmental Analysis of the Draft Socio Economic Development Plan Vietnam Union of Scientific and Technological Associations Centre for Environment Research Education and Development, Hanoi. Vietnam Country Study - November

50 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 > NRC 2006: External evaluation report: preparedness for disaster related to climate change. Vietnam Red Cross and Netherlands Red Cross, 24 pp. > NDM-Partnership 2004: NDM-Partnership Framework and Action Plan ( ). NDM-Partnership Secretariat, Hanoi, 81 pp. > Rego, A.J. (2001) National disaster management Information Systems and Networks: An Asian Overview. Paper presented at GDIN Available at: > Silver, M. 2005: Fiver-year Plan Logical Framework: Water Disaster Management and Mitigation. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Hanoi, 11 pp. (dated 30 July 2005) LF%20-Dykes%20and%20Flood%20Protection%20-%2030July05.pdf > Sekhar, N.U. 2005: Integrated coastal zone management in Vietnam. Ocean and Coastal Management 48, > TAW 2000: From probability of exceedance to probability of flooding: towards a new safety approach, Technische Adviescommissie voor de Waterkeringen, Dienst Weg- en Waterbouwkunde, Rijkswaterstaat, Delft. > Thomalla, F., T. Downing, E. Spanger-Siegfried, G. Ham and J. Rockström 2006: Reducing hazard vulnerability: towards a common approach between disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation. Disasters 30, > Tiempo (1997) Tiempo Climate Cyberlibrary: Typhoon Linda hits Vietnam. Issue 26, December > Tri, N.H., W.N. Adger and P.M. Kelly 1998: Natural resource management in mitigating climate impacts: the example of mangrove restoration in Vietnam. Global Environmental Change 8, > US Library of Congress, > Van Aalst, M. and M. Helmer 2004: Preparedness for Climate Change. Red Cross/Red Crescent Centre on Climate Change and Disaster Preparedness, The Hague, 42 pp. > Van Drunen, M., R. Lasage and C. Dorland 2005: Climate change in developing countries: an overview of study results from the Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance Programme. Report R-05/21, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, 225 pp. > Wassmann, R., N.X. Hien, C.T. Hoanh and T.P. Tuong 2004: Sea level rise affecting the Vietnamese Mekong delta: water elevation in the flood season and implications for rice production. Climatic Change 66, > Wickramanayake, E. 1994: Flood mitigation problems in Vietnam. Disasters 18, > Zeidler, R.B. 1998: Continental shorelines: climate change and integrated coastal management. Ocean and Coastal Management 37, Websites > Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control: > Disaster Management Unit: > GEF Community Based Adaptations to Climate Change Program: > International Support Group MARD: > International Support Group for Natural Resources and Environment: > Institute of Meterology and Hydrology: > Natural Disaster Mitigation Partnership: > SEA-START Regional Center: > VNICZM project: 42 Ref MWH rev. 0

51 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction APPENDIX 2 - EXPERTS CONSULTED Nguyen Thi Hong Ha, Southeast Asian Association of Vietnam, The Consultative Institute for Socio-Economic Development of Rural and Mountainous Areas (CISDOMA) Ninh Van Hiep, SEARAV The Consultative Institute for Socio-Economic Development of Rural and Mountainous Areas (CISDOMA) Ass. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Khac Tich, The Consultative Institute for Socio-Economic Development of Rural and Mountainous Areas (CISDOMA) Tran Tu Anh, The Netherlands Red Cross Assoc. Prof. Dr. Chu Van Ngoi, Faculty of Geology, Hanoi University of Science Ass. Prof. Dr. Le Trinh, Vietnam Association for the Conservation of Nature & Environment Environment & Sustainable Development Institute (VESDI) Anh Nam, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) The International Support Group on Natural Resources and Environment (ISGE) MA. Pham Van Tan, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) Melanie Miltenburg, The Netherlands Red Cross Huynh Thu Ba, Sustainable Development Cluster, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Pham Thanh Hang, Sustainable Development Cluster, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Prof. Dr. Tran Tan Tien, Vietnam National University Hanoi University of Science, Faculty of Hydro-Meteorology & Oceanography Assoc. Prof. Tran Thuc, Director, Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMH) Pham Van Duong, The centre of Hydro-meteorological and Environmental Network Nguyen Mong Cuong, Research Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Development (RCCCSD) Duong Anh Tuyen, Viet Nam Partnership for the Development of Human Resources in Rural Areas Hoang Thai Dai, Ph.D, Water Resources University (WRU) Faculty of Planning & Management of Water Resources Development System Le Thac Can, Hanoi National University Vietnam Environment and Sustainable Development Institute (VESDI) Dr. Hoang Minh Hien, Department of Dyke Management, Flood and Storm Control Disaster Management Centre (DMC) Nguyen Thi Van Anh, Social Policy Project, United Nations Children s Fund Gaby Breton, Natural Disaster Mitigation Projects (NDMP) Canadian Centre for International Studies and Cooperation (CECI) Dr. Lien, Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMH) Vietnam Country Study - November

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53 Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management for Sustainable Poverty Reduction APPENDIX 3 - WORKING TERMINOLOGY For the purposes of this project we have adopted and used the following definitions, based primarily on UNISDR terminology (see Risk Hazard Vulnerability Coping capacity Adaptation Disaster Disaster risk management Mitigation Preparedness The probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses (deaths, injuries, property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or environment damaged) resulting from interactions between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable conditions. A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity that may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation. The conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards. The means by which people or organisations use available resources and abilities to face adverse consequences that could lead to a disaster. Adjustments in response to actual or expected climate change or its effects ( anticipatory or proactive adaptation is adaptation that takes place before impacts of climate change are observed) A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources. The systematic process of using administrative decisions, organisation, operational skills and capacities to implement policies, strategies and coping capacities of the society and communities to lessen the impacts of natural hazards and related environmental and technological disasters. This comprises all forms of activities, including structural and non-structural measures to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) adverse effects of hazards. Structural and non-structural measures undertaken to limit the adverse impact of natural hazards, environmental degradation and technological hazards. NB In terms of climate change mitigation has a distinct meaning: it refers to human efforts to reduce the sources of (or enhance the sinks for) greenhouse gases. Activities and measures taken in advance to ensure effective response to the impact of hazards, including the issuance of timely and effective early warnings and the temporary evacuation of people and property from threatened locations. Relief / response The provision of assistance or intervention during or immediately after a disaster to meet the life preservation and basic subsistence needs of those people affected. It can be of an immediate, short-term, or protracted duration. Vietnam Country Study - November

54 Framework Contract AMS/451 Lot No 6 Recovery Disaster risk reduction (disaster reduction) Decisions and actions taken after a disaster with a view to restoring or improving the pre-disaster living conditions of the stricken community, while encouraging and facilitating necessary adjustments to reduce disaster risk. The conceptual framework of elements considered with the possibilities to minimise vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout a society, to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) the adverse impacts of hazards, within the broad context of sustainable development. Capacity building Efforts aimed to develop human skills or societal infrastructures within a community or organisation needed to reduce the level of risk. 46 Ref MWH rev. 0

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