Banco Indusval & Partners S.A. 'BB-' Global Scale And 'bra-' National Scale Ratings Affirmed, Outlook Remains Negative

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1 Research Update: Banco Indusval & Partners S.A. 'BB-' Global Scale And 'bra-' National Scale Ratings Affirmed, Outlook Remains Negative Primary Credit Analyst: Guilherme Machado, Sao Paulo (55) ; Secondary Contact: Edgard Dias, Sao Paulo +55 (11) ; Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale Outlook Ratings Score Snapshot Related Criteria And Research Ratings List JULY 13,

2 Research Update: Banco Indusval & Partners S.A. 'BB-' Global Scale And 'bra-' National Scale Ratings Affirmed, Overview Banco Indusval & Partners S.A. (BI&P) continues to have a small market share and generate poor profitability metrics; however, the bank is trying to improve its revenue diversification. We are affirming our global scale 'BB-/B' and national scale 'bra-/bra-2' issuer credit ratings on the bank. The outlook remains negative. The negative outlook reflects our view of the negative trend in Brazil's BICRA Economic Risk and our belief that BI&P could experience financial deterioration from pressures on the Brazilian banking system as a result of the impact of fiscal and monetary tightening in our economic assessment of Brazil. The outlook also reflects a negative trend that we see in the bank's business position. We believe its small market presence and its small customer base could continue to pressure the bank business stability, as evidenced by its poor financial results in the past 24 months. Rating Action On July 13, 2015, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed our global scale long-term 'BB-' and short-term 'B' issuer credit ratings on BI&P. At the same time, we affirmed our national scale long-term 'bra-' and short-term 'bra-2' issuer credit ratings on the bank. The outlook remains negative. Rationale Under our bank criteria, we use our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment's (BICRA) economic risk and industry risk scores to determine a bank's anchor, the starting point in assigning an issuer credit rating. Our anchor for a commercial bank operating only in Brazil is 'bbb-', based on the country's economic risk score of '6' and an industry risk score of '5'. Brazil's economic risk reflects its low GDP per capita levels and modest growth prospects that limit household debt capacity and the country's ability to withstand economic downturns. Although still significant, the economic imbalances risk has somewhat decreased in 2014 as credit and house price growth has moderated while banks' asset quality has gradually improved and nonperforming loans (NPLs) and credit losses have stabilized at manageable JULY 13,

3 levels. On the other hand, the country is facing challenging political and economic conditions. Brazil's economic growth prospects have weakened in 2014 while fiscal debt burden remains high. We believe likely economic contraction will take its toll on banks, which in our view will move into a correction phase in the next months. Such scenario would prompt a reversal in the recent improvement in asset quality and profitability. Therefore we assess our economic risk trend as negative. While large and most mid-size banks are well prepared to weather weak economic prospects, we believe some medium and smaller banks will face significant credit losses. Our industry risk assessment for Brazil reflects the significant presence of government-owned banks, which has caused material distortions over the past few years, weakening competitive dynamics. On the other hand, the country's regulatory structure has extensive coverage and is broadly in line with international standards. Brazilian banks benefit from a stable core customer deposit base and fluid access to local and international capital markets. Banks' external funding constitutes only 7.3% of their total liabilities. We continue to base our assessment of BI&P's "weak" business position on the bank's marginal market presence, poor financial results during the past 24 months, and small customer base, which pressure the bank's business stability. As of March 31, 2015, the bank's total assets were Brazilian real (R$) 5.2 billion, representing a market share of about 0.1%. During the same period, its expanded loan portfolio was R$3.9 billion, mainly composed of corporate loans (64%), and upper middle market loans (36%). BI&P's strategy is to deleverage its loan portfolio and to focus on fee-based business, such as investment banking, and on its full service wealth management and trading platform (Guide Investimentos). Still, the bank continues to originate most of its credit in its corporate segment, in which the bank has expertise and know-how. Therefore, we believe the bank won't increase its market share, which could continue to pressure its business stability. BI&P has posted poor performance during the past two years as the bank struggles to increase its loan portfolio amid a stagnating economy and low GDP per capita levels, which limit the country's credit capacity. Its newly-employed strategy of focusing on noncredit related revenues could improve its revenue stability if the bank succeeds in realizing those business lines. Our assessment of the bank's capital and earnings reflects BI&P adequate capital ratios. According to our risk-adjusted capital framework (RACF) methodology, we expect an average 7.7% ratio for the next two years as the bank continues to implement its conservative growth strategy in its loans portfolio. The bank reduced its growth pace considerably during 2014 and 2015 amid a sluggish economy. Management's decision to restrict lending to protect the bank against eventual spikes in delinquency has somewhat eased pressure on the bank's risk adjusted capital (RAC). Nevertheless, we expect the bank to show low profitability in the next two years. The decrease in the bank's loan portfolio should hurt its net interest income, but an increase in revenues JULY 13,

4 from fees and commissions--as the bank continues to develop its brokerage business will somewhat compensate for it. The bank's client profile provides better asset quality than banks that cater to small and midsize enterprises (SMEs); however, it doesn't represent high credit spreads, which prejudices its profitability indicators, albeit with lower risk. We do not anticipate any capital injections in the next two years, and we do not expect the bank to make any dividend payments through The bank's "adequate" risk position stems from its stable asset quality indicators even in an adverse economic environment, as well as its conservative risk management. BI&P's loan portfolio has performed better than its peers'. As of March 15, 2015, NPLs stood at 2.33% while net charge-offs were 0.74%; these ratios compare well with banks within the system that focus on the SMEs and corporate segments, which have shown significant asset quality deterioration. On the other hand, we still believe that BI&P's high credit risk concentration will pressure the bank's risk position. As of March 2015, its top 20 customers represented 22% of its loan portfolio, a level slightly higher than its peers', and it has remained relatively stable. Furthermore, agribusiness is still BI&P's core business line, representing significant portion of its loan portfolio (26% as of March, 2015). We expect the agribusiness segment to continue to represent a high percentage of the bank's loan portfolio during the next two years because of its strong profitability. In our opinion, BI&P's funding is "below average" compared to the overall Brazilian banking industry. Its main funding source is core customer deposits, which accounted for 91% of the total funding base as of March Time deposits represent a significant share of BI&P's core deposits and 18.5% of those had a liquidity condition, according to Brazilian Central Bank data as of December On the other hand, the bank has taken the initiative to diversify its funding portfolio with the issuance of letters of credit: its agribusiness, financial, and real estate bills already correspond to 39% of its total funding base (up from 18% in June 2013). In addition, the bank has other sources such as foreign borrowing and on-lending, representing 9% of the total base, mainly comprised of trade finance operations and on-lendings from the Brazilian Development National Bank (BNDES). Even though BI&P's stable funding ratio is adequate at 118%, we still view the bank's funding profile as "below average," given its concentration in and reliance on wholesale funding, which we believe to be more volatile and expensive than retail depositors. Still, the bank has been increasing its retail funding base lately, somewhat improving its funding profile. We view BI&P's liquidity as "adequate." The bank's broad liquid assets totaled R$1.4 billion as of March 2015, covering 50% of its short-term customer deposit base, which reflects its prudent liquidity management. In addition, BI&P's broad liquid assets, which are well-positioned compared to its peers', covered its short-term wholesale funding by 3.1x, as of March We expect continued "adequate" liquidity management going forward. JULY 13,

5 Outlook The negative outlook reflects our view of the negative trend in Brazil's BICRA Economic Risk; it also reflects potential financial deterioration from pressures on the Brazilian banking system as a result of the impact of fiscal and monetary tightening in our economic assessment of Brazil. A confirmation of this negative trend could trigger a downgrade on the ratings on the bank, as well as a downgrade on SACP, because we believe a more difficult operating environment would hurt the bank. The outlook also reflects a negative trend that we see in the bank's business position. We believe its small market presence and customer base could continue to pressure the bank's business stability, as demonstrated by poor financial results during the past 24 months. We will keep monitoring how the bank's revenues base develops as it deleverages its loans portfolio and focuses on noncredit related business lines. We could revise our outlook on BI&P to stable if the negative trend in Brazil's BICRA Economic Risk abates and the bank improves its profitability through a stable revenue base. Ratings Score Snapshot Issuer Credit Rating BB-/Negative/B SACP bb- Anchor bbb- Business Position Weak (-2) Capital and Earnings Adequate (0) Risk Position Adequate (0) Funding and liquidity Below average and Adequate (-1) Support 0 GRE Support 0 Group Support 0 Government Support 0 Additional Factors 0 Related Criteria And Research Related Criteria National And Regional Scale Credit Ratings, Sept. 22, 2014 Standard & Poor s National and Regional Scale Mapping Tables, Sept. 30, Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011 Banks: Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, JULY 13,

6 Bank Capital Methodology And Assumptions, Dec. 6, 2010 General: Use Of CreditWatch And Outlooks, Sept. 14, 2009 Ratings List Ratings Affirmed Banco Indusval & Partners S.A. Counterparty Credit Rating Brazil National Scale BB-/Negative/B bra-/negative/bra-2 Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at and at All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. JULY 13,

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