Banco Mercantil do Brasil S.A. Global Scale 'BB-/B' And National Scale 'bra-' Ratings Affirmed

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1 Research Update: Banco Mercantil do Brasil S.A. Global Scale 'BB-/B' And National Scale 'bra-' Ratings Affirmed Primary Credit Analyst: Vitor Garcia, Sao Paulo (55) ; Secondary Contact: Ricardo Brito, Sao Paulo (55) ; Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale Outlook Ratings Score Snapshot Related Criteria And Research Ratings List SEPTEMBER 4,

2 Research Update: Banco Mercantil do Brasil S.A. Global Scale 'BB-/B' And National Scale 'bra-' Ratings Affirmed Overview Banco Mercantil do Brasil continues to expand its loan portfolio with greater focus on payroll deductable lending and better use of its branch network, but tight capitalization remains a risk. We are affirming our global scale 'BB-/B' and national scale 'bra-' ratings on the bank. In our view, the bank's creditworthiness will remain stable through Rating Action On Sept. 4, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its global scale 'BB-/B' and national scale 'bra-' issuer credit ratings on Banco Mercantil do Brasil S.A. (MB). The outlook is stable. Rationale Standard & Poor's bases its ratings on MB's "moderate" business position (as our criteria define it), "weak" capital and earnings, "adequate" risk position, "below-average" funding, and "adequate" liquidity. Our bank criteria use our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) economic and industry risk scores to determine a bank's anchor, the starting point in assigning an issuer credit rating. Our anchor for a commercial bank operating only in Brazil is 'bbb'. Our economic risk assessment of '5' reflects our opinion that economic improvements and cautious fiscal and monetary policies have added to the Brazilian economic authorities' flexibility to manage significant external shocks and potential distortions arising from the current economic expansion in Brazil. We believe these potential risks remain manageable, and that the central bank's proactive stance has contained them. Our assessment of industry risk at '3' benefits from Brazil's sound regulation and good regulatory track record, and the high and stable share of core deposits supporting the Brazilian banking industry. We consider the banking sector's moderate risk appetite as a positive factor. MB's business position is "moderate." It is a midsize private bank in Brazil, currently listed on the Brazilian stock exchange, and has been operating for more than 70 years. With R$13.8 billion in assets and R$9.1 billion in loans as of June 2012 (considering loans assignments with co obligation), it is the 29th largest bank by assets, according to the central bank's data, representing less than 1% of the financial system's total assets. The bank's SEPTEMBER 4,

3 Research Update: Banco Mercantil do Brasil S.A. Global Scale 'BB-/B' And National Scale 'bra-' Ratings Affirmed loan portfolio is made up of loans to individuals (49%) and to small and midsize enterprises (SMEs; 51%). MB's credit portfolio is going through an increase in loans to individuals that reflects the bank's strategy to increase payroll deductable lending following the acquisition of Instituto Nacional do Seguro Social's payrolls, which is likely to increase origination from its branch network and improve efficiency. This increase is also due to the discontinuing of loan sales to other financial institutions with co-obligation following the regulatory changes earlier this year. The changes resulted in the deferral of the income from sale of the loan for the duration of the operation, rather its recognition upfront. We view this strategic change as positive, as it will help the bank to achieve a more sustainable growth. Payroll origination through the branches reduces risks inherent to this kind of operation, such as early liquidation of the loans and posterior sale to other banks by the correspondent, when the operation is originated by this kind of agent. MB's operations are concentrated in the state of Minas Gerais and São Paulo, however, its presence in the city of São Paulo is comparatively small. Our "weak" assessment of the bank's capital and earnings is due to its weak capital ratios and still sluggish historical profitability. According to our risk-adjusted capital framework (RACF) methodology, we expect the bank's capital to be slightly below 5% on average for 2012 and This metric is higher than in 2011 given the parent's capital injection of R$85 million, and incorporates the robust growth of its loan portfolio in the first half of 2012 and our expectation for similar growth for the rest of this year and The bank has a historically weak profitability and high-cost structure, as seen in its return on average assets (ROA) of 0.53% as of June 2012, 0.84% as of December 2011, and -0.70% as of December 2010, excluding nonrecurring items. The absence of loan sales will weaken the bank's ROA for 2012, but we believe the bank is going through a transition period by focusing on payroll lending and on-balance operations that will improve its efficiency and increase earnings in the long term with a cost structure that can handle expanded operations. We view MB's risk position as "adequate." The bank's nonperforming loans to total loans were 3.34% in June 2012, down from 3.77% in January 2012, but net charge-offs to total loans increased to 4.5% from 2.74% in June 2011, while loan loss reserves to NPLs were at 103.5% in June A significant increase in credit losses or NPLs could trigger a downgrade, but we believe the bank's expansion in payroll deductible lending will stabilize its asset quality. Additionally, the bank's loan portfolio has limited concentration in clients: the 20 largest debtors represented less than 10% of total loan portfolio. Overall, we don't expect the bank's risk position to weaken, as it will remain focused on its core line of business and as long as it manages its asset quality and credit-related losses. In our opinion, MB's funding is "below average" and liquidity is "adequate." The bank relies on time deposits to fund its activities, as it represents around 66% of its funding sources. However, the bank's time deposits are more retail oriented than for its peers thanks to its branch network that allows it SEPTEMBER 4,

4 Research Update: Banco Mercantil do Brasil S.A. Global Scale 'BB-/B' And National Scale 'bra-' Ratings Affirmed to better capture these types of deposits. We believe this is also a reflection of its focus on payroll coupled with branch origination which allows the bank to have a more stable client base. Thirty one percent of its time deposits were related to individual investors, 41% to corporations, and 28% to institutional investors such as asset managers and funds, and as of June 2012, 24.4% of its time deposits had liquidity condition. Compared with its peers, MB has no significant concentration among its 20 largest depositors. As of June 2012, the bank's liquid assets covered 23% of its total deposits and 123% of its deposits with liquidity condition. Outlook The stable outlook reflects our expectation that MB will continue expanding its activities and branch network to improve its profitability and capitalization levels. We could raise the ratings if the bank's earnings retention in the next 12 months is enough to raise our projected average RAC ratio above 5% or if there is another capital injection to boost its current capital levels. Conversely, if its asset quality deteriorates, capital levels drop, or if liquidity decreases, we could lower the ratings on the bank. Ratings Score Snapshot Issuer Credit Rating BB-/Stable/B SACP bb- Anchor bbb Business Position Moderate (-1) Capital and Earnings Weak (-2) Risk Position Adequate (0) Funding and Liquidity Below Average and Adequate (-1) Support 0 GRE Support 0 Group Support 0 Sovereign Support 0 Additional Factors 0 Related Criteria And Research Banks: Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011 Bank Industry Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, SEPTEMBER 4,

5 Research Update: Banco Mercantil do Brasil S.A. Global Scale 'BB-/B' And National Scale 'bra-' Ratings Affirmed Banks: Bank Capital Methodology And Assumptions, Dec. 6, 2010 Ratings List Ratings Affirmed Banco Mercantil Do Brasil S.A. Counterparty Credit Rating Brazilian Rating Scale BB-/Stable/B bra-/stable/-- Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal at All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. SEPTEMBER 4,

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