Duke Energy International Geracao Paranapanema 'BBB-' Global And 'braaa' National Scale Ratings Affirmed

Transcription

1 Research Update: Duke Energy International Geracao Paranapanema 'BBB-' Global And 'braaa' National Scale Ratings Affirmed Primary Credit Analyst: Sergio Fuentes, Buenos Aires (54) ; Secondary Contact: Camilla Dolle, Sao Paulo ; Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale Outlook Ratings Score Snapshot Related Criteria And Research Ratings List DECEMBER 22,

2 Research Update: Duke Energy International Geracao Paranapanema 'BBB-' Global And 'braaa' National Scale Overview Brazil-based hydro-power generator, Duke Paranapanema, continues to enjoy a good operating performance and healthy financial results during 2014 despite the severe drought. We are affirming our 'BBB-' global scale and 'braaa' national scale ratings on the company. The stable outlook reflects our expectation that the company will maintain an EBITDA margin in the 65%-75% range and strong credit metrics even if it decides to engage in new power generation projects or if it complies with its contractual obligation to increase its power generation installed capacity by about 330 megawatts (MW) in the state of Sao Paulo. Rating Action On Dec. 22, 2014, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its 'BBB-' global scale and 'braaa' national scale ratings on Duke Energy International Geracao Paranapanema S.A. (Duke Paranapanema). The outlook remains stable. Rationale The rating on Duke Paranapanema mainly reflects its "satisfactory" business risk profile, "modest" financial risk profile, and our expectations that a sovereign default scenario would take a toll on the company. We view Duke Paranapanema's business risk profile as "satisfactory," based on the company's long-term concessions to operate eight hydro plants for a total installed capacity of 2,241 MW (1,086 MW of assured energy), the very low operating cost, and good operating performance, substantial contracted sales, and an assured energy and energy reallocation mechanism that provides certain protection against drought. Its exposure to dry weather conditions, given that it's a fully hydro power generator, mitigates these strengths. Also, the uncertainties about Duke Paranapanema's ability to comply with a contractual obligation, which was part of its 1999 privatization agreement, to increase its power generation capacity by 15% (about 330 MW) in the state of Sao Paulo by September 2007 is also a negative rating factor. The state filed a lawsuit against the company, which argued that it couldn't comply due to a lack of opportunities to build plants in the state. On Aug. 31, 2011, the judge ruled that the company must comply with the agreement. The company presented to DECEMBER 22,

3 court an expansion plan including the gas-fired thermo plant and two small hydro power plants under construction by a sister company, which Duke Paranapanema could acquire. Duke Paranapanema has also appealed the judge's ruling. We don't expect this legal dispute to be resolved during the next two years, and the company has the financial capacity to finance any investment the court orders it to make. Duke Paranapanema benefits from a commercial strategy that consists of selling a great portion of its assured energy under contracts mainly to large users because it can manage credit risk and generally charge higher prices than through contracts with regulated utilities (basically electric distributors) through public bids. Contracts with large users are normally with tenors from three to eight years and have more flexible conditions than those with regulated clients. To protect itself from the drought's impact, Duke Paranapanema sold a lower portion (93% compared to normal levels of 95% to 100%) of its assured energy under contracts during 2014, and we expect contracted levels to range at levels between 90% and 95% in 2015 and Duke Paranapanema benefits from the energy reallocation mechanism in Brazil that provides certain protection against drought. This mechanism basically allows hydro power generators, whose output has dropped amid dry weather, to purchase power at very low cost from their peers located in regions with excess water levels. However, this mechanism is less effective when a drought affects the entire system. We assess Duke Paranapanema's financial risk profile as "modest," reflecting its strong cash flow generation and low debt levels, which results in healthy financial metrics, as seen in our expectations that debt to EBITDA will be below 1.5x and FFO to debt more than 50% in 2014 and In addition, our "modest" assessment incorporates our expectation that the company could carry out new, sizable investments in power generation capacity by building new plants in the next two to three years. Still, we expect its debt to EBITDA to remain less than 3.0x and FFO to debt more than 30% in the next 24 months. Our base case assumptions for 2014 include: Electricity demand growth in Brazil of about 3%; Insufficient water levels, but no rationing; Contracted sales representing about 93% of assured energy; and Flexible 100% dividend payout. Based on these assumptions we arrive at the following credit measures: Annual EBITDA of R$800 million to R$900 million; Capital expenditures (capex) of about R$50 million; EBITDA margin of 65%-75%; Total adjusted debt (net from cash surplus) to EBITDA of less than 1.5x; Funds from operations (FFO) to total adjusted debt of more than 50%; and Significant portion of its free cash flow generation as dividends. DECEMBER 22,

4 Liquidity We assess Duke Paranapanema's liquidity as "adequate." We expect sources to exceed uses by at least 1.2x in the next two years, which helps insulate the company against adverse events. We also expect sources to exceed uses even if EBITDA were to decline by 20%. Our assessment of the company's liquidity also incorporates its good financial flexibility thank to its good access to credit markets. It can also retain discretionary cash by reducing its large dividends. Duke Paranapanema is largely in compliance with its covenants (net debt to EBITDA of less than 3.2x and EBITDA/financial result of more than 2x), and would continue to do so amid a significant drop in EBITDA. Principal Liquidity Sources: Cash and short-term investments of R$611 million as of Dec. 31, 2013; R$479 million debentures issued in May 2014; and FFO of about R$550 million in Principal Liquidity Sources: Short-term debt maturities of R$249 million as of Dec. 31, 2013; Maintenance capex of about R$50 million in 2014; A R$500 million reduction in capex in November 2014; and A 100%, but flexible, dividend payout in Other Modifiers On an aggregate basis, the modifiers do not affect the rating. Group Influence Duke Paranapanema is ultimately controlled by Duke Energy International Brasil, which, in turn, is controlled by Duke Energy Corp. (BBB+/Stable/A-2), a diversified North American energy company. The group rating methodology does not provide any uplift to Duke Paranapanema's stand-alone credit profile because we consider it a non-strategic subsidiary for Duke Energy Corp. Outlook The stable outlook on Duke Paranapanema reflects our expectation that the company will maintain a good operating performance with EBITDA margin of 65%-75% and strong credit metrics even if it decides to engage in new power generation projects or if it complies with its contractual obligation to increase its power generation installed capacity by about 330 MW in the state of Sao Paulo. The company has the financial capacity to finance that potential investment, if the court mandates it. Downside scenario We could lower the ratings if the company carries out a very aggressive expansion strategy while maintaining a 100% dividend payout resulting in total DECEMBER 22,

5 debt to EBITDA consistently of more than 3.0x and FFO to total debt of less than 30%. Upside scenario The ratings are limited by that of the sovereign because we expect the company's liquidity to suffer from a lower cash flows and significant delays in collection of sales in a sovereign default scenario. Ratings Score Snapshot Corporate Credit Rating: BBB-/Stable/-- Business risk: Satisfactory Country risk: Moderately high Industry risk: Moderately high Competitive position: Satisfactory Financial risk: Modest Cash flow/leverage: Modest Anchor: bbb+ Modifiers: None Diversification/Portfolio effect: Neutral (no impact) Capital structure: Neutral (no impact) Financial policy: Neutral (no impact) Liquidity: Adequate (no impact) Management and governance: Fair (no impact) Comparable rating analysis: Neutral (no impact) Rating Above the Sovereign: bbb- Related Criteria And Research Key Credit Factors For The Unregulated Power And Gas Industry, March 28, 2014 Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Jan. 2, 2014 Corporate Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 Corporate Methodology: Ratios and Adjustments, Nov. 19, 2013 Group Rating Methodology, Nov. 19, DECEMBER 22,

6 Ratings List Duke Energy International Geracao Paranapanema S.A. Corporate Credit Rating Global Scale BBB-/Stable/-- Brazil National Scale braaa/stable/-- Senior Unsecured braaa Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at and at All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. DECEMBER 22,

7 Copyright 2014 Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC, a part of McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT'S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED, OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P's opinions, analyses, and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw, or suspend such acknowledgement at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal, or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain nonpublic information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, (free of charge), and and (subscription) and (subscription) and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at DECEMBER 22,