SARA: South America integrated Risk Assessment

Transcription

1 SARA: South America integrated Risk Assessment Jairo A. Valcárcel GEM Founda?on 11/12/2012 Project sponsored by Swiss Re Founda?on

2 SARA: South America integrated Risk Assessment Outline Background Objec?ve and Scope Work packages Management

3 Background Main conclusions from the country proﬁles on informa?on for risk management. Project promoted by the ECLAC and the IADB [Zapata 2007]: Background Objec?ve and scope Work packages Management A need to standardize informa?on on seismic risk The informa?on available for risk assessment is not always prepared in terms that decision makers require.

4 Background Background Objec?ve and The informa?on generated by diﬀering Wscope ork packages Management groups of specialists is frequently incompa?ble, leading to confusions among decision makers. There is a lack of informa?on on the possible beneﬁts and costs of mi?ga?on and risk reduc?on measures that could be implemented

5 Current ini2a2ves Na2onal ini2a2ves Local projects for seismic hazard analysis, city scenarios Regional ini2a2ves Seismic hazard assessment in the northern Andes (PILOTO Project ) Comprehensive Approach for Probabilis?c Risk Assessment (CAPRA) Background Objec?ve and scope Work packages Management

6 Opportuni2es and needs in seismic risk assessment in South America Scien2ﬁc based ini2a2ve: The use of Global state- of- the- art Background Objec?ve and scope Work packages Management standards and datasets The par?cipa?on of local scien?sts in the development of databases and models Regional scale: Modeling the seismic hazard beyond na?onal borders

7 Objec2ves and scope Speciﬁc objec2ve: Informa2on for seismic risk management Background Objec2ve and scope Work packages Management To es?mate the seismic risk To communicate the results To connect researches with risk managers To suggest risk management strategies from transparent basis

8 Objec2ves and scope Speciﬁc objec2ve: Strengthen of local researches capabili2es Background Objec2ve and scope Work packages Management To promote the research on seismic risk To es?mate earthquake risk on standard procedures To ac?vely disseminate informa?on To understand the seismic risk beyond the physical aspects To build upon past and ongoing ini?a?ves on seismic risk

9 Work packages WP6: Integrated risk assessment WP1: Modeling seismic hazard WP2: Exposure database WP3: Physical Vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure Background Objec?ve and scope Work packages Management WP4: Indices for socioeconomic vulnerability, resilience, disaster impacts and indirect losses

10 Work package 1: Modeling seismic hazard in South America Harmoniza?on of current seismic hazard models Faults LEFT_LATERAL NORMAL_FAULTS REVERSE RIDGES RIGHT_LATERAL Background Objec?ve and scope Work packages WP1: Seismic Hazard Management TRENCH countries Open- source archive of ac2ve faults for northwest South America [Veloza et al. 2012] Historical seismicity for South America in a preliminary version of GEM Historical Seismicity Catalogue

11 Work package 1: Modeling seismic hazard in South America Building a new seismic hazard model for South America Background Objec?ve and scope Work packages WP1: Seismic Hazard Management Seismic Hazard assessment in the northern Andes [Dimate et al 1999] Seismic Hazard map for South America GSHAP [Giardini 1999]

12 Work package 1: Modeling seismic hazard in South America Some key milestones June 2013: Harmonised seismicity catalogue for the region June 2013: Catalogue Workshop January 2014: Hazard Input Workshop August 2014: Final Hazard Workshop

13 Work package 2: Exposure Database Iden?ﬁca?on of predominant building typologies in each country Background Objec?ve and scope Work packages WP2:Exposure Management Lateral Material load resis?ng system Roof Exterior walls Floor Founda?on Building posi?on within a block Structural irregularity Date of construc?on or retroﬁt Occupancy Shape of the building plan Height Direc?on GEM Building Taxonomy [Brzev et al. 2012]

14 Work package 2: Exposure Database Regional Building Exposure Database Development GED4GEM approach [Dell Acqua et al. 2012]; PAGER- WHE project [Jaiswal et al. 2010] City inventory databases Background Objec?ve and scope Work packages WP2:Exposure Management BREC- 4- GEM [Dell Acqua et al. 2012]

15 Work package 2: Exposure Database Some key milestones March 2013: Building Typology and Taxonomy Review Workshop September 2013: Predominant buildings in South America, with focus on Quito and Lima documented in reports January 2014: Regional Exposure Workshop

16 Work package 3: Physical Vulnerability of Typical Buildings and Infrastructure Development of vulnerability func?ons Calibra?on using consequences data [from the global component] Expected value of loss(%) Review of exis?ng fragility and consequence func?ons Background Objec?ve and scope Work packages WP3: Physical Vulnerability 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Management Sa (Te=0.35 s), (cm/s2) Concrete frames with unreinforced masonry walls (pre code) Precast concrete frames (pre code) Reiforced masonry (pre code) Unreiforced masonry (low code) GEM Physical Vulnerability Guidelines

17 Work package 3: Physical Vulnerability of Typical Buildings and Infrastructure Some key milestones July 2013: Vulnerability Workshop October 2013: Vulnerability guidelines training workshop September 2015: Analy?cal vulnerability func?ons derived using GEM vulnerability guidelines

18 Work package 4: Indices for Social Vulnerability, resilience and indirect losses Background Objec?ve and Composite index development scope - Social vulnerability index - Disaster resilience index - Economic vulnerability index Robustness tes2ng and valida2on of composite indices Work packages WP4: Social vulnerability Management

19 Work package 4: Physical Vulnerability of Typical Buildings and Infrastructure Some key milestones September 2013: Database of collected socioeconomic data for the region July 2014: Stakeholder Workshop

20 Work package 6: Integrated City Scenario and Regional Risk Assessment Background Objec?ve and scope Work packages Regional risk assessment WP6: city scenario & regional risk assessment Annual probability of exceedance 1 Management E E E E E+04 Aggregated economic losses

21 Work package 6: Integrated City Scenario and Regional Risk Assessment Background Objec?ve and scope Work packages City scenario assessments Conﬁgura)on of the scenarios WP6: city scenario & regional risk assessment - Expected losses for speciﬁc events Management - Socioeconomic indicators [Yépez 2001]

22 Work package 6: Integrated City Scenario and Regional Risk Assessment City scenario assessments Communica?on Par?cipa?on of diﬀerent stakeholders Management Emergency response and recovery Vulnerability reduc?on Background Objec?ve and scope Work packages WP6: city scenario & regional risk assessment Management

23 Work package 6: Integrated City Scenario and Regional Risk Assessment Some key milestones September 2013: City scenario data collected and processed September 2013: Preliminary events for city scenarios selected January 2014: Stakeholder workshop on city scenarios November 2014: Updated scenario events iden?ﬁed July 2015: Stakeholder workshop on ﬁnal city scenarios

24 Management Background Objec?ve and scope Work packages Management Scientific Committee Coordination Body (Hazard, Physical Risk, Social Vulnerability/ Resilience, IT) Technical Review Panel WP1 WP2 GEM Secretariat WP3 GEM Model Facility WP4 Regional institutions/ individuals WP6

25 cities3 Events <all other values> SARA: South America integrated Risk Assessment City Bogotá Ingeominas Caracas Funvisis La Paz Obs.de San Calixto Lima Loja Inst. Geofisico del Peru - PUCP Univ.Tecnica Particular de Loja Manizales Universidad Nacional Medellín Universidad de Medellín IGEPN Universidad de San Francisco de Quito San Juan INPRES Quito Santiago Pont. Univ.Católica de Chile Sao Paulo Universidade de Sao Paulo

26 SARA: South America integrated Risk Assessment Thank you