Rafi Ahmad & Parris Lyew-Ayee

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1 Challenges with Spatial Information in the Caribbean Rafi Ahmad & Parris Lyew-Ayee Mona GeoInformatics Institute The University of the West Indies at Mona, Jamaica

2 Challenges associated with: Data availability Includes digital and non-digital data Skills sets to process primary data and derive secondary data models GIS professionals without hazard training Hazard professionals without GIS training Ability to translate core hazard concepts into workable models in a GIS (steep slopes alone do not mean landslides, etc) Demand from end users for true innovation and new approaches to old problems Narrowly-defined technological solutions, rather than broader approaches which include technological approaches as part of solution

into workable models in a GIS (steep slopes alone do not mean landslides, etc) Demand from end users for true innovation and new approaches

3 Challenges Similar throughout region Data issues range from: Availability of data Diversity of data Scale very important when adapting First World methodologies and systems to the small islands of the Caribbean Significant analytical deficiencies

when adapting First World methodologies and systems to the

4 MGI Experiences Develop entirely new approaches and processes Utilizes GIS, but not exclusively Input not necessarily from digitizing old maps or from GPS field survey for data generation Utilize old reports Interpret media reports Utilize social networks and data mining mechanisms Output not necessarily a map or a traditional GIS system May include model parameters for insurance underwriting and assessment Interactive simulations or web maps Publications (Natural Hazards Atlas of Jamaica in press) Create new markets for hazard mapping and GIS Insurance sector Real estate sector ***Need to understand market needs and budgets, not necessarily to forcefeed it with what scientists believe the industry should do***

model parameters for insurance underwriting and assessment Interactive simulations or web maps Publications (Natural Hazards Atlas of Jamaica in press) Create new markets for

5 MGI Experiences Results already being practically applied in Jamaica Insurance sector actively using MGI s system in underwriting, claims and reinsurance Real estate and infrastructure developers using GIS for site selection and geotechnical engineering Policy makers actively using MGI system in development of National Spatial Plan for Jamaica, and in the assisting with the development approvals process Investors using MGI system to plan, meshing hazards and environmental data with socioeconomic considerations

engineering Policy makers actively using MGI system in development of National Spatial Plan for Jamaica, and in the assisting

6 MGI DATABASE & GEM This presentation will show available data that may be imported into the GEM platform

7 Interactive Hazards Archive Map

8 About the System Aim: create a mechanism/system useful to all possible users & stakeholders of hazard event information-multiple hazards scenario to be able to identify events that affected their houses/communities EXAMPLE All references to FLOODS and LANDSLIDES in the entire Jamaica Gleaner Archives mapped Excluding references to general flood/landslide editorials and/or general policy discussions Also excluding non-hazard flood/landslide references ( West Indies lost by a landslide to the Pakistan cricket team ; Cable and Wireless was flooded with calls ) Including field and literature verification Records date back to the 1830 s

references to general flood/landslide editorials and/or general policy discussions Also excluding non-hazard flood/landslide references ( West Indies lost by a

9 Points to Note Not as comprehensive as an official hazard event survey, but predates such official institutions by, in some cases, a century Reports on major and minor floods and landslides included, not just the spectacular events that make the news (1907 earthquake, etc) Communities where event occurred mapped; no detail on precise location from report Only places where the impact affected people and/or infrastructure were reported, and hence mapped; other areas that were inaccessible and/or had no people may not have attracted attention to be reported on 150 years ago Products are Hazard maps: Inventory group All ground types are represented, points to controls by specific ground types

report Only places where the impact affected people and/or infrastructure were reported, and hence mapped; other areas that were inaccessible and/or had no people may not

increasing areas of paved surfaces and deforestation.

10 Floods typically occur along inland alluvial plains. Flooding is also exacerbated by urbanization, with increasing areas of paved surfaces and deforestation. Flooding along major river valleys is also prevalent.

11 Landslides preferentially occur along fault scarps throughout the island. River valley slopes are decorated with old and young landslides which supply abundant sediments to rivers. Landslide debris is exploited for aggregate, examples: Yallahs River, Morant River, Wagwater River.

River valley slopes are decorated with old and young landslides which

to many different users via web interface; no need for specialized software and/or training

12 Technical Points System based on Google API Provides detailed satellite imagery ala Google Earth, but allows user content to be added and manipulated Provides immediate accessibility to many different users via web interface; no need for specialized software and/or training Full GIS-style accessibility in terms of query, zoom-pan functions, and turning layers on and off

17 Disaster Simulator integrates hazard principles of location, infrastructure and event type, and generates over 2000 different combinations of impact 4 hazards: earthquake (mild, serious, catastrophic), tropical cyclones (from tropical storms to Category 5 hurricanes), floods and landslides, and combinations of secondary impacts etc Different wall and roof and foundation types Different landscape environments

catastrophic), tropical cyclones (from tropical storms to Category 5 hurricanes), floods and

20 Haiti-in-Jamaica Earthquake Simulation Developed for NEM Insurance as a tool to assess its reinsurance cover Quantitatively addresses concerns in industry, government and general public (through the media) about a What-If scenario Integrates geological and geophysical information (in the actual model simulation) with analysis of impact on society, infrastructure and economy Provides immediately useful and usable information

about a What-If scenario Integrates geological and geophysical information (in the actual model

23 The Results Entire island would feel the earthquake Over 75% would feel shaking enough to begin to cause structural damage in some buildings Including an extent containing over 2.2M people and over 480,000 buildings Eastern Jamaica would feel the worst effects 87% of Portland and 83% of St Thomas by area would experience MMI VIII

24 Specific Areas of Concern Portmore Large-scale housing development Developed on reclaimed land Untested by major ground-shaking event Many unauthorized housing extensions and expansions Norman Manley International Airport Runway developed on reclaimed land Palisadoes has proven history of liquefaction from tip to tip Airports are critical hubs for relief supplies and coordination Downtown Kingston Waterfront Reclaimed land with multi-storey tower blocks and intensive development Critical facilities include Jamaica s Central Bank Newport West and Petrojam Reclaimed land Critical facilities for utilities (including power supply at Hunt s Bay) and supplies *** ALL SUSCEPTIBLE TO LIQUEFACTION ***

25 Adapted from CDMP Report, 1999

26 NEM Portfolio Analysis Far more detailed breakdown of building type, by roof and wall, along with sum insured valuations Different construction types would experience different types of damage, depending on their locations (ground shaking) and construction types Similar buildings in different areas experiencing different peak ground acceleration would not experience similar damage Different building types in areas experiencing similar peak ground acceleration would experience different damage

28 Weighing the Model

29 NEM Portfolio Analysis Results can be used for reinsurance negotiations and pricing Underwriting analyses and premium calculations Dynamic model able to incorporate changes in portfolio characteristics

30 Conclusions Challenges being overcome with scientific and technological innovation Different approaches to old problems Applies solid theory and approaches with technology Use technology for different purposes: Information exchange and generation of awareness Decision making Analysis and modeling» Same raw datasets can be used for different objectives» For example: GEM Platform THANK YOU

Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative. Better Information for Smarter Investments

Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative Better Information for Smarter Investments Main Outputs Pacific disaster risk assessment Probabilistic assessment of major perils Pacific Risk