1 Using Predictive Analytics to Tailor Services for Better Outcomes for Children in NYC ERICSA 50 th Annual Training Conference & Exposition May Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista, Florida
2 ERICSA Using Predictive Analytics to Tailor Services for Better Outcomes for Children in NYC Frances Pardus-abbadessa Executive Deputy Commissioner, Human Resources Administration Office of Child Support Enforcement May 22, 2013
3 Agenda Brief Overview of NYC Child Support Predictive Analytics Early Intervention Strategic Enforcement
4 NYC Child Support Program 406,000 cases and 70 % or about 300,000 have a child support order in place In CY 2012, collected $739 million, assisting 1/4 of a million NYC children Approximately 800 staff who are located in 11 offices throughout the City, including every Family court Organized by functional area no case ownership Effective April 1, 2012 the State no longer contributes to the program. Funding is 34% local and 66% federal
5 NYC Child Support Program
6 What is Predictive Analytics? Predictive analytics is using data to generate predictive insights to make smarter decisions and improve performance: Helps shift focus towards prevention instead of solely reaction Promotes tailoring operations and business processes rather using the one-size-fits-all approach Facilitates the right action, on the right case, at the right time
7 NYC s Challenges 300,000 cases with orders, 43% with a collection in the month No one person is accountable for the case Manual intervention by staff is reactive; i.e. after the NCP falls into debt or is targeted for automated enforcement Reports lack information about how to optimize resources and prioritize work NYC needed greater insight into the potential future behavior of NCPs in order to obtain better outcomes for the children of NYC.
8 Predictive Analytics and NYC Goal: Improve collections Solution: Design predictive model(s) to predict the likelihood of a successful outcome for a case based on the history of successful outcomes for similar cases Model 1: New Case Model (cases with newly established orders) The New Case Model helps identify the NCPs who are at highest risk of failing to pay their child support over the first three (3) months. This model is used for early intervention Model 2: Existing Case Model (cases with orders > 4 months) The Current Support Model will help OCSE identify the NCPs who are at highest risk of failing to pay their child support obligations in the coming month This model is used for strategic enforcement
9 Predictive Variables Examples Predictive Variable Wage Garnishment Status NCP Age New Cases Model # of Children on Case # of Children Where NCP Provides Medical Insurance Current Support Obligation Amount Number of NCP Cases Child on Cash Assistance Existing Cases Model Predictive Variable Current Paid % 1 month prior Age of Youngest Child At least 1 Child Born in Wedlock # of Children Where NCP Provides Medical Insurance # of years since case created Arrears to Obligation Amount Ratio Child on Cash Assistance These are only some of the variables used in each model. The impact of a specific variable is different in each case
10 Early Intervention Early intervention outreach, using the New Cases Model, began in August 2012 All NCPs who obtain a new child support order and meet the high risk criteria are identified monthly. The expectation is by making a concerted effort to contact the NCP and welcoming them into the program, it may be what is needed to motivate some number of these high risk groups to comply with their child support order.
11 Early Intervention A caseworker welcomes them into the child support program and Ensures they understand their order Reviews the rules governing the program Reinforces the need to read their mail Informs them to call her if they have a problem Asks if they have any questions The caseworker tracks the case Those paying, require no action Those not paying, will receive a follow-up call & as appropriate, referral to other services
12 Early Intervention: The Results Number of NCPs identified for outreach 93 Number of NCPs for whom contact was attempted 87 Number of NCPs mailed introduction letter 37 Number of NCPs contacted by phone 18 Number of NCPs engaged in program 5 Number of NCPs paying 43
13 Early Intervention: The Challenge Convincing enforcement staff of the benefit of early intervention Shift in focus from enforcement to supportive role is a significant change in how staff perceive their role Difficulty engaging and connecting to NCPs adds to the difficulty in convincing staff of the value of this approach
14 Strategic Enforcement 160,000 cases out of approximately 300,000 do not pay their child support. Approaching all 160,000 cases using the same strategy and giving them equal importance fails to recognize the difference that exist across the caseload. There are insufficient resources to provide extra scrutiny to 160,000 cases. By filtering the cases, it ensures we align our resources to those cases that are most likely to yield results and increase collections.
15 Strategic Enforcement: Our Plan We are redesigning our full enforcement system and plan to incorporate the existing case model data into the system. It is a local system that allows us to focus on non paying child support cases. The current system lacks any ability to distinguish between cases and largely gives each case equal weight. The predictive data will inform our efforts on how best to enforce our cases.
16 Strategic Enforcement: Going it Alone Ideally it would be best to have a predictive model included in our state system, but it is not necessary. Developing a model ourselves required Contracting with experts in this area Having a deep understanding of our caseload & the factors that may trigger compliance vs noncompliance Recognition that it is okay to treat cases differently based on their case circumstances.
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