Merrill Lynch Investor Conference Sun City, South Africa March 2014

Transcription

1 Merrill Lynch Investor Conference Sun City, South Africa March 2014 Ketso Gordhan CEO Tryphosa Ramano CFO Richard Tomes Joint MD SA Cement 1

2 Contents Introduction Overview of PPC Strategy Operational Review Cement Lime Aggregates Rest of Africa PPC Footprint Algeria Corporate update Restructure of BEE I 2

3 South Africa Botswana Zimbabwe Mozambique Introduction 3

4 Company overview PPC at a Glance Overview of PPC s Operations Established over 120 years ago Listed on the JSE for 104 years Largest cement manufacturer with leading market positions in SA, Zimbabwe, Botswana and Rwanda Leading burnt lime and dolomite producer in southern Africa Strong presence in the aggregates industry in Gauteng and Botswana. Cement is also exported to other African countries For the 2013 financial year: Revenue R 8.3 bn EBITDA R 2.5 bn Operating profit R 1.9 bn 4

5 Product overview Cement South Africa Zimbabwe Botswana Rwanda Mozambique PPC s product range includes Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) for specialised application in the infrastructural market ( ), market-leading Surebuild (42.5) for general-purpose application, and the SureRoad brand for exclusive use in road construction Surebuild, Unicem; an established 32.5 multipurpose cement and PMC (22.5) are distributed from the Bulawayo factory OPC, Surebuild, PMC (22.5) and Botcem (32.5); a popular ash-blended cement for the retail market CIMERWA produces a 42.5N Portland Pozzolana Cement and a 32.5N Portland Composite Cement PPC s 42.5N Surebuild is distributed as the Força brand and the 32.5N Obras product was introduced during 2012 Lime Aggregates Readymix Concrete (RMC) PPC s products include unslaked lime, hydrated lime, limestone and burnt dolomite 1 Strength category of cement Concrete stone, road stone, crusher sand, river sand, building sand, plaster sand, Magalies silica, natural base, sub-base, fill material, dolomite and agricultural lime Pronto Readymix supplies concrete as well as plaster and mortar to the Gauteng area. This includes standard and pumpable concrete mixes from 10MPa 50MPa, as well as dual purpose dry mortar and superflat speciality plaster 5

6 Strategy overview PPC s strategies are: 1. Enhance our industry leader position in southern Africa ( Keeping the home fires burning strategy) Excel in sales, marketing, customer focus, overall value offering Efficient operations and optimised logistics Renew/upgrade equipment, especially relating to customers or efficiency Acquire businesses with good strategic fit 2. Expand our operational footprint into other parts of Africa ( Rest of Africa strategy) Grow revenue outside South Africa to >40% of group revenue by 2017 Stringent criteria: Identify suitable markets Locate limestone (quality and quantity) Identify local partner/government support Contract with equipment supplier and project managers Secure appropriate funding Ensure skilled staffing is in place 6

7 South Africa Botswana Zimbabwe Mozambique Operational Review 7

8 South African operating environment Capital Formation & GDP (% change) SA economic slowdown underway Treasury s 2013 GDP estimate is 1.8% rising to 2.7% in 2014 Household consumption to be negatively impacted by lower growth and rising interest rates GFCF slowed down materially in 2013 to an estimated 3.2% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% % -3.0% Gross Fixed Capital Formation Final Household Consumption Real GDP Growth Treasury estimates of GFCF in may be a challenge to achieve Public sector still not spending 100% of allocated infrastructure budgets Public sector infrastructure expenditure (R billion) 2008/ / / / /13 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Budget Actual % Spend Source: National Treasury, SA Reserve Bank, PPC calculations 8

9 PPC s South African cement market Demand Slowdown in the economy has negatively affected cement demand growth Heavy rains in a number of provinces have also exacerbated the slowdown in demand For the first five months of the FY14, PPC s SA cement volumes have consequently contracted Pricing PPC achieved a 4% price increase on 1 Jan 2014 Pricing environment is highly competitive The Eastern Cape is however exhibiting strong growth Driven by a number of factors including supply to wind farms and provincial government projects 9

10 Cement imports Imports by Port of Entry Despite continued rand weakness, imports continue to enter the country tons of cement imported in 2012 Figure has risen to 1.1 million tons in 2013 up 44% ±70% Majority of imports still coming into the Durban port ± 13% ± 17% Pakistan remains the main exporter of cement into SA Average FOB price remains at ~R29 per bag Source: SARS, DTI, PPC research Durban PE & EL Cape Town 10

11 Cost update RSA cement cost of sales well managed: Benefits of three mega plant strategy being reaped Technical issues resulting in lower than planned production output at Dwaalboom last year not repeated Distribution costs, however negatively affected by rising fuel prices Zimbabwe cement cost of sales well managed: Benefits of investment in palletiser and right-sizing of operations being realised Impact of rand devaluation however magnifies increase in cost of sales and overheads Admin and other operating costs increase by double digits Driven up by rising international overheads as expansion strategy continues Impact of consolidating CIMERWA and Safika from 1 January 2014 Also impacted by timing of marketing expenditure Implementation of carbon taxes delayed Finance Minister has postponed implementation of carbon taxes to 2016 PPC continues to engage government on this proposed instrument 11

12 South Africa acquisitions and capex Acquisition of Safika Cement Following Competition Commission approval in December 2013: A 69% shareholding in Safika was acquired for R377 million Safika consolidated into PPC Group as of 1 January 2014 Business is making a positive impact on Group EBITDA Modernisation Capex: Slurry kiln 8 Acquisition of Pronto Holdings Final tranche to be purchased in 2014 Purchased at 5,6 times Pronto s EBITDA less net debt First 50% of the business purchased for R180 million Remaining 50% of the business to be purchased at the end of May 2014 Slurry Kiln 8 SK8 commissioned in 1973 Modernisation to meet emissions legislation, improve thermal efficiency, output and operating costs Planetary coolers to be replaced by latest generation grate cooler Once upgraded, SK8 to produce 5000 tpd of clinker at heat consumption <3.4 MJ/kg clinker Estimated SA capital expenditure for 2014 financial year: R550m R650m 12

13 Zimbabwe, Botswana, Mozambique and Rwanda Zimbabwe In-country liquidity constraints have led to a slowdown in local demand Limited growth in domestic selling prices Offset by an increase in exports to neighbouring countries Favourable Impact of rand devaluation Botswana The demand and pricing environment remains under pressure Cautiously optimistic on the outlook for government infrastructure spending Mozambique Volumes remain under pressure in the southern regions due to intense price competition as a result of imported cement products Rwanda Operational efficiencies improving, with focus now on regional export opportunities 13

14 Lime and Aggregates Lime Burnt product volumes in line with prior year Negatively impacted by a reduction in exports as well as lower sales to key steel and alloys clients This was however offset by increased sales of limestone product Rising cost of sales likely to limit margin growth Aggregates Increase in projects in operating zones have led to improved volume growth in South Africa and Botswana SA volumes favourably impacted by increased sales to readymix, CPM segments and newly secured projects Improved cost performance likely to lead to an improvement in division s performance for FY14 An improvement in performance is anticipated for the Aggregates business in 1H

15 South Africa Botswana Zimbabwe Mozambique Rest of Africa 15

16 PPC s expansion strategy Algeria Operations Focus Regions Ethiopia Population (m) 37.5 Urbanisation (%) 72% GDP per capita ($) 5,668 Cement consumption/capita (kg) 549 Real GDP growth 13-18E 4.3% Capacity (mtpa) 22 Cement price per tonne ($) Population (m) 86.8 Urbanisation (%) 17% GDP per capita ($) 533 Cement consumption/capita (kg) 74 Real GDP growth 13-18E 8.7% Capacity (mtpa) 9 Cement price per tonne ($) 130 DRC Population (m) 74.7 Urbanisation (%) 34% GDP per capita ($) 241 Cement consumption/capita (kg) 26 Real GDP growth 13-18E 9.8% Capacity (mtpa) 0.68 Cement price per tonne ($) 400 Botswana Population (m) 2.1 Urbanisation (%) 24% GDP per capita ($) 7,471 Cement consumption/capita (kg) 302 Real GDP growth 13-18E 4.9% Capacity (mtpa) - Cement price per tonne ($) Source: Cemnet 2012, IMF data South Africa Population (m) 51.1 Urbanisation (%) 62% GDP per capita ($) 6,847 Cement consumption/capita (kg) 226 Real GDP growth 13-18E 3.7% Capacity (mtpa) 16 Cement price per tonne ($) Mozambique Population (m) 22.5 Urbanisation (%) 31% GDP per capita ($) 640 Cement consumption/capita (kg) 68 Real GDP growth 13-18E 9.7% Capacity (mtpa) 1 Cement price per tonne ($) Rwanda Population (m) 10.4 Urbanisation (%) 17% GDP per capita ($) 724 Cement consumption/capita (kg) 37 Real GDP growth 13-18E 8.6% Capacity (mtpa) 0.2 Cement price per tonne ($) Zimbabwe Population (m) 13.0 Urbanisation (%) 29% GDP per capita ($) 799 Cement consumption/capita (kg) 76 Real GDP growth 13-18E 4.9% Capacity (mtpa) 1.5 Cement price per tonne ($)

17 Algeria PPC to acquire a 49% stake in Hodna Cement Company Hodna to construct a 2 mtpa plant for ~$350 million Feasibility study underway and to be concluded mid-2014 Construction likely to commence by end 2014 Intend to fund via project finance 80% debt funding Algerian cement demand estimated at 22 mtpa with production capacity of ~18 mtpa Government committed to roll out major infrastructure investments Cement selling prices range between $80 - $120 per ton Favourable costs of production due to affordable gas prices and availability of electricity available at project location Well located raw material components on site limestone, gypsum and shale 17

18 South Africa Botswana Zimbabwe Mozambique Corporate update 18

19 Restructure of BEE I transaction Special general meeting held on 18 March 2014 to approve the restructure of a portion of PPC s 2008 BEE I transaction Restructure beneficial to shareholders as it: Gives greater flexibility to PPC balance sheet with the reclassification of debt to equity Ensures better alignment with PPC staff who now become PPC s BEE partners staff ownership to rise to ~12% Notional vendor financing scheme to be put in place to facilitate this shareholding Repayment of third party BEE debt to be financed via the issue of perpetual preference shares Transaction to be concluded by the end of F

20 Investor contacts Ketso Gordhan Tryphosa Ramano Richard Tomes Azola Lowan Chief Executive Officer Chief Financial Officer Joint MD: SA Cement Investor Relations Tel

21 Addendum: Southern African cement industry map 21

22 Disclaimer This document including, without limitation, those statements concerning the demand outlook, PPC s expansion projects and its capital resources and expenditure, contain certain forwardlooking statements and views. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty and although PPC believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to be correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of, among other factors, changes in economic and market conditions, success of business and operating initiatives, changes in the regulatory environment, other government action and business and operational risk management. Whilst PPC takes reasonable care to ensure the accuracy of the information presented, PPC accepts no responsibility for any damages, be they consequential, indirect, special or incidental, whether foreseeable or unforeseeable, based on claims arising out of misrepresentation or negligence arising in connection with a forward-looking statement. This document is not intended to contain any profit forecasts or profit estimates, and the information published in this document is unaudited. 22