Tomorrow is Today. Market changes lead to the transformation of PostNL. Peter van Buijtene Königswinter 1 December

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1 Tomorrow is Today Market changes lead to the transformation of PostNL Peter van Buijtene Königswinter 1 December

2 Content 1. Introduction: market dynamics drive change 2. Postal Market Dynamics 3. PostNL Approach to Change 4. Conclusions. What about the USO 1. If there is time, what does the consumer think of the uso 2

3 1. Market Dynamics Drive Change 3

4 1. Market Dynamics Drive Change Dutch consumer - 90% online presence fast adaptater of new information and communication technology; ICT changes succeed exponentially; This is changing consumer communication and buying behavior per generation. Socio-economic drivers changed the role of post as medium 4

5 2. Postal Market Dynamics decline in market postal volumes Total Addressed Mail Market, Netherlands Total Domestic Addressed Mail Market ,8 billion pieces and falling

6 2. Postal Market Dynamics low cost non-priority mail competition on Dutch Market Delivery days 6 (Mon to Sat) 2 (Tue & Fri) Delivery slots 6 24, 48, 72hrs same + next week 72hrs Delivery times hrs hrs Posting times < 21.00hrs < 17.00hrs Public rates for,000 items 72hrs 0-20g ± 28 eurocents shift from priority to non-priority market demand ± 20 eurocents

7 2. Postal Market Dynamics Competion: lower wages, less delivery days Lower labour costs of new entrants enabled lower pricing; Mail deliverers are paid per piece delivered; No collective labour agreement or guaranteed legal minimum wages yet. Employers' cost per hour x Competitors pay per adress TNT Post mail deliverer TNT Post postmen 7

8 3. PostNL Approach to Change Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Non prio Prio Prio Non prio Prio Prio Non prio Prio Posting Priority & Non-priority Delivery Tuesday - Saturday 8

9 3. PostNL Approach to Change Market based peak/off Peak model: non-priority propositions at lower prices volume non - priority n on - priority non - priority non - priority priority priority priority priority priority priority Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Priority mail delivered on 6 six days; Non-priority mail delivered on Tue, Thu and Sat = 3 days low volumes; Peakdays more volume delivered than if non priority was deliverd over days. 9

10 Percentage of households to visit 3. PostNL Approach to Change different breaking points in delivery costs 100% 2012 peak days 2012 off-peak days 2010 equal days 2012 equal days Peak days: economies of scale with more pieces per household; 0% Mail volume Off-peak days: efficiency with less households to visit; The total costs of peak/offpeak days are less then the total costs equal days. 10

11 3. PostNL Approach to Change Centralisation of preparation to large preparation centres next-day mail: pre-sorted and prepared in the early morning; non-priority: pre-sorted and prepared 3 times a week at daytime; Sorting & preparation is differentiated from distribution work. This leaves little room for full time jobs. In future delivery work is expected to be part-time jobs for mail deliverers. Centralisation of delivery & preparation will cut floorspace with 70%. 11

12 3. PostNL Approach to Change the new path of a letter 12

13 3. PostNL Approach to Change the Danish X/Y Model doesn t fit Dutch Market 13

14 4. Conclusions: Tomorrow is Today Consumer communication behavior is changing rapidly; A new postal market demand is emerging; Postal operators are adapting services and operations accordingly Tomorrow is today USO: how to react to these developments?! 14

15 . What about the USO Review Where do we stand What is happening around us What does the customer want Future What does that mean for the USO What changes do we foresee 1

16 . Market Dynamics Drive Change 16

17 . What about the USO the number of letterboxes has been constant

18 . What about the USO; volume drop 33% Strong decline of the number of daily letters in the letterbox letter boxes letter boxes 2004: :49 18

19 Luxemburg Nederland UK België Zwitserland Duitsland Tsjechië Frankrijk Oostenrijk Denemarken Italië Portugal Polen Slovenië Hongarije Ierland Griekenland Noorwegen Roemenië Spanje Estland Zweden Bulgarije Litouwen Letland Finland. What about the USO; economic grounds infrastructure Number of letter boxes per km2 0,0 0,48 0,47 0,46 0,4 Short distance to letterboxes compared to rest of Europe 0,30 0,29 0,27 0,24 0,23 0,20 0,16 0,1 0,1 0,10 0,09 0,08 0,08 0,07 0,07 0,07 0,06 0,0 0,04 0,03 0,02 19 Reference: Main developments in the postal sector ( ), Copenhagen Economics, November 2010 & data IPC

20 . What about the USO; growth of retail outlets number of outlets has grown Postwinkel PostNL postagent Postkantoor PostNL Servicepunt Businesspoint Postkantoor

21 . What about the USO; number of delivery days number of USO 6 delivery days in Europe exception to the rule Zweden Spanje Slovenië Slowakije Roemenië Portugal Polen Malta Luxemburg Litouwen Letland Italië Ierland Hongarije Griekenland Finland Estland Tsjechië Cyprus Bulgarije Oostenrijk Belgie UK Zwitserland Noorwegen Nederland Duitsland Frankrijk Denemarken 21 Source: IPC 2011

22 In Euro's. What about the USO; price of stamps price of stamps in Europe 1,2 Tarieven 0-20 gr ( ) 1,1 1 0,9 0,8 0,7 Gemiddeld 0,6 0, 0,4 Nederland (PostNL) 0,3 0, Noorwegen* Denemarken* Finland België Oostenrijk 22 Italië Luxemburg Frankrijk Duitsland UK* Portugal Nederland (PostNL) Spanje Gemiddeld

23 . What about the USO; public spending on post postal expenses per household is minimal Yearly Household Expenditure post; 28 (0,1%) post; 3 (0,2%) telephone; telephone; other; other; other telephone post

24 . What about the USO; a changing world Consumer Communication Behaviour innovative technology Consumer Buying Behaviour Consumer behaviour driven by IT Post Pakketten 24 Annual report 2010 KPN Estimation PostNL

25 . What about the USO; abundance of alternatives Post Parcels Bron: Sandd Economendag 2010 International Post Digital substitution 2

26 . What about the USO; shift in communication means of communication used to contact friends, family and relatives. telephone text-message personal visit 96% 94% 86% 8% postcard 71% digital communities/blogs chats e-card 47% 42% 41% letter parcel internet postcard 12% 2% 23% 26

27 Questions Questions 27

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