ESIrg REPORT ON MEDIA VALUE OF PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL SEPTEMBER 2006

Transcription

1 ESIrg REPORT ON MEDIA VALUE OF PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL SEPTEMBER 26 Ronaldinho is the worldwide leading star, according to the study on media value carried out by ESIrg - University of Navarra. Other football superstars are Ronaldo, Rooney and Beckham, manifesting the supremacy of Brazilian and English players. By teams, the leader is Real Madrid, followed by Barcelona, Manchester, Chelsea and Arsenal. - ESIrg (Economics, Sport and Intangibles research group), has developed its own methodology as part of a broader project to evaluate intangibles in the Sport business. - The report uses a large data base of 6. observations directly related to the media value of football players and clubs. - This study provides evidence of the strong correlation between the media value of the players and the revenues that they bring to their clubs, as well as between the media value of clubs and revenues sources: match attendances, broadcasting rights and other commercial arrangements. Authors Francesc Pujol ESIrg and Department of Economics, Universidad de Navarra Pedro Garcia-del-Barrio ESIrg and Universitat Internacional de Catalunya We gratefully acknowledge the collaboration of: Juan Carlos Molero Department of Economics, Universidad de Navarra J. Raúl Mata Research assistant, Universidad de Navarra Miguel Cardenal Universidad de Extremadura and the financial support provided by the research grant MEC: Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología (SEJ )

2 1 CONTENTS 1. Summary 2 Main sections 2. Media Value of the players 9 Zoom 2.1: Variations in Media Value 13 Zoom 2.2: Spotlight of Ronaldinho, media leader worldwide 14 Zoom 2.3: Champions League: top football superstars competition in the world 2 Zoom 2.4: Big media battles between players 21 Zoom 2.5: Relationship between popularity and notoriety of players Media Value of the managers 3 Zoom 3.1: Media battles between managers Media Value of the teams 34 Zoom 4.1: Media Value pre-eminence by countries 39 Zoom 4.2: Notoriety of the teams by linguistic areas 4 Análisis específicos 5. Relationship between media value and commercial revenues of players Relationship between media value and revenues of the clubs Real Madrid-FC Barcelona: a worldwide battle for media value Media impact of new hired players in Europe and Spain How is the Media Value measured? nd Report on football Media Value. Edition February Professional Report on football Media Value (IP-S6) 68

3 2 1. Summary Ronaldinho surpasses Ronaldo as the leading media football star The new report on media value, carried out by ESIrg Universidad de Navarra, concludes that at the end of season 25/6 Ronaldinho, FC Barcelona, has become the world media leader. Ronaldinho reaches the greatest media value with 17.5 points, above Ronaldo (Real Madrid, 15.2 points) and Rooney (Manchester United, 14.2). The study then reveals that a change in the world leadership has taken place, since at the beginning of the season the first positions in the ranking were hold by Ronaldo and Beckham, Real Madrid players. The amount 17.5 signifies that Ronaldinho possess a media value which is 17.5 times greater than the average of the 9 players registered at the European Champions League. The study also provides insights, through graphical analysis, to various media battles between significant peers in the season: Ronaldinho-Ronaldo, Henry-Eto'o, Messi-Robinho or Lehmann-Kahn. Winners and losers Among the 2 more valuable individuals, in terms of media value, nine players are competing in the Spanish league (six of them in Real Madrid and three in Barcelona) and seven play in the Premier league, which suggests a clear predominance of these two leagues. Regarding the changes in media value throughout the season, Ronaldinho, Rooney, Eto o and Cesc (Arsenal) experienced the greatest increases, whereas 3 Real Madrid players experienced the biggest losses: Robinho, Beckham and Ronaldo. The more detailed analysis of Ronaldinho s media value evolution shows that he reached his pick at December 25, coinciding with the match between Real Madrid and FC Barcelona and at the time when he was awarded as the best football player in the world. Since April he also benefited from the impact of the last rounds of the Champions league. Media value of managers The methodology developed by ESIrg also permits evaluating the media value of the coaches. It is noteworthy that in some cases the manager happens to be the most popular figure within the club, as it is the case with Alex Ferguson (Manchester Utd). The Old Trafford chief is followed by Mourinho (Chelsea), Rijkaard (Barcelona), Wenger (Arsenal) and Benitez (Liverpool). Ferguson leads the ranking of media value with 15.2 points, followed by the Mourinho, who reaches 13.1 points, and Rijkaard (Barcelona) with 8.4

4 3 points. Below we show the graph of the evolution of media value of Mourinho and Rijkaard, representing a battle which is presumably going to happen again in season 26/7. The clear distance in favour of Mourinho at the beginning of the season has faded when Rijkaard has become the European champion with Barcelona. Real Madrid holds the status of world s leader in terms of media value Attending to the media value by teams, the study reveals that two Spanish clubs are placed in the top positions. The most valuable club is Real Madrid and the second one is FC Barcelona, which in the last season has reduced the distance. The positions 3 to 5 are held by English clubs: Manchester, Chelsea and Arsenal. Real Madrid is the team with the highest media value all over the world (84.2 points). The second position, which was held by Manchester United at the beginning of the Champions League 25/6, is now occupied by Barcelona with 72.5 points, seven more than those obtained by Manchester United. Chelsea came ahead of Arsenal and behind Manchester, with score of Real Madrid, with 84.5 points, still holds the leadership in media value, even if in the last three seasons it has not won one single title, which has been very negative for its interests in terms of media status. Consequently, the distance with FC Barcelona, which was of 35 points at the beginning of season 25/6, is now of about 11 points. The 72.5 points obtained by FC Barcelona signifies the second world position, after overcoming Manchester Utd. At the end of season 25/6, Manchester reached the third (65.6 points) and Chelsea the forth one (52.9 points). We conclude the section on clubs with a detailed analysis of the global media battle between the two top teams in football: Real Madrid and FC Barcelona. The study suggests that Real Madrid possesses a higher notoriety (news generated) within English speaking markets presumably due to the Beckham effect and within French speaking markets Zidane effect, whereas Barcelona predominates Spanish speaking areas (the most important one, since it represents more that 5. news per year to each of those teams), as well as the German and Italian area. In support of the media globalization phenomenon we find that 43% of the news related to these two clubs comes from non-spanish speaking areas, which is even more remarkable if noting that we could not take into account the news reported in Japanese or Chinese. Relationship between media value and revenues The methodology developed by ESirg - Universidad de Navarra is able of translating into economic value one of the most important intangibles in football business: the popularity

5 4 and notoriety of the players as well as its subsequent media and social impact. We have denoted all these realities within the term media value. Perhaps the most interesting achievement of this study consists of rigorously analysing the close relationship between the media value and the economic revenues generated by the football business. Our research concludes that there is a extremely high correlation between media value of a player and the commercial revenues he generates, as well as between media value of clubs and the total revenues obtained through match attendances, broadcasting rights and merchandising. These results are extremely relevant for the management of intangibles in sports. Besides, the examine of the media value of football players and teams draws the interest of all kinds of institutions within the business (like sponsors), and not just of clubs or players agents. Media impact of the hiring new players The report finishes exploring the impact that players who changed team in the summer had on the media. The most valuable acquirement in the Spanish LFP seems to be Van Nistelrooy, followed by Cannavaro and Thuram. Real Madrid and FC Barcelona concentrate the attention of fans, since they gather 9 out of the 1 most popular new hired players. The only exception is Joaquin, moving from Betis to Valencia, who gets the forth highest position. In Europe, the new players that have awaken the greatest interests from the supporters are those of English clubs: Ballack (Chelsea), followed by Gallas (Arsenal) and Ashley Cole (Chelsea). 6. observations to estimate the media value of football This study on media value of football is part of a broader project to evaluate intangibles within the sport business. The same methodology was also used to elaborate the previous reports on the World Football Cup in Germany and the World Basketball Championship in Japan. The present report is the most ambitious one of those computed by ESIrg Universidad de Navarra. To achieve the results shown here, Francesc Pujol (Universidad de Navarra) and Pedro Garcia-del-Barrio (Universitat Internacional de Catalunya) have collected a data base which, at the present moment, amounts for more than 6. observations that are directly linked to the media value of football players and clubs. The size of the data set permits granting credibility to the results, since each single value was built from combining many individual observations (collected twice a week throughout the season).

6 5 How the media value is measured? The basic guidelines of the methodology elaborated by ESIrg consist of estimating the intangible notion of media value by two complementary elements: popularity and notoriety. Even if both notions are apparently impossible to seize, we propose an innovative way to capture a coherent approximation of them. We measure the popularity level of a sport player by the number of web pages referred to her or him. In order to avoid spurious results, we introduce selective filters in the search process, as we consider only web pages referred to the player, the team where she or he plays and the related sport or competition where they play. The popularity measure reflects the interest that a given sport players creates among general public all around the world (through her or his presence in personal web pages, blogspots, galleries and so on), as well as specialized web pages (like official sport institutions, commercial firms or the media). In order to obtain a measure of notoriety we estimate the number of press news that each player generates in any given time. We follow a similar process used with the popularity measure, introducing filters in the search process. The notoriety measure reflects the mass media exposure received by each sport player. This measure is basically linked to her or his present sport performance and, usually in an lesser extent, also due to personal or social characteristics or activities which generate news. The final individual measure of media value is obtained by a combination of the popularity measure and the notoriety measure. The strength of our methodology is that we are able to provide an individual measure of media value for each one of the players participating in any kind of sport competition, at any time of the competition. This also implies that we have an accurate and homogeneous measure for all players, which allow us to built rankings and to establish comparisons of media value between players and across time. From the individual measure of media value we can construct additional measures of team media value or other related measures. More detailed information can be found in the ESIrg web site:

7 6 Table 1 Ranking of Players with the greatest Media Value Player Club League MediaValue Ronaldinho Barcelona Spanish Ronaldo Real Madrid Spanish Rooney Manchester Utd English Beckham Real Madrid Spanish 14.3 Henry Arsenal English 1.1 Eto'o Barcelona Spanish 9.88 Ballack (Bayern Munich)/Chelsea English 9.84 Zidane Real Madrid Spanish 9.77 Van Nistelrooy (Manchester Utd)/Real Madrid Spanish 9.43 Messi Barcelona Spanish 8.69 Gerrard Liverpool English 8.54 Raúl Real Madrid Spanish 8.47 Adriano Inter Milan Italian 8.36 Lampard Chelsea English 7.99 Kahn Bayern Munich German 7.11 Graph 1. Evolution of Media Value of Ronaldinho Evolución del Valor Mediático de Ronaldinho Oct Oct Nov Nov Dic Dic Feb Mar Mar Abr Abr May May Table 2 Media Value ranking of Managers Manager Club Country Media Value 1 Ferguson Manchester Utd Ing Mourinho Chelsea Ing Rijkaard Barcelona Esp Wenger Arsenal Ing Benitez Liverpool Ing Magath Bayern Munich Ale Luxemburgo Real Madrid Esp Capello Juventud Ita Hiddink PSV Hol 3. 1 Ancelotti Milan AC Ita 2.9

8 7 Graph 2. Comparative evolution of Media Value: Rijkaard vs. Mourinho Media Value Points Media Value Variation Rijkaard (FCB) Mourinho (Ch) Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Table 3 Teams with the highest Media Value Club MediaValue RM=1 1 Real Madrid Barcelona Manchester Utd Chelsea Arsenal Bayern Munich Milán AC Juventus Liverpool Inter Milan Graph 3. Evolution of Media Value: Real Madrid vs. FC Barcelona Evolución del Valor Mediático del RM y FCB FC Barcelona Real Madrid Sept Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar Abr May

9 8 Graph 4. Relationship between Media Value and total Revenues of the clubs. 18 Relationship between Player's Media Value and Advertising Income 15 Media Value Henry Van Nist. Ballack Terry Del Piero Ferdinand Vieira Kew ell Advertising Income

10 9 2. Media Value of football players Ronaldinho is the new leader football player in terms of media value, after surpassing Ronaldo, again a Brazilian player. Ronaldinho reaches 17.5 points and Ronaldo gets 15.2, while the third place is for Rooney, who obtains 14.2 points. 17 out of the top 2 players with greatest media value are competing either in the English Premier Leaguer or in the Spanish LFP. Real Madrid, with 6 players of the top 2, gathers the largest number of superstars, while Barcelona has 3 players among these 2. The highest increases in media value during the season correspond respectively to: Ronaldinho, Rooney, Eto o and Cesc. On the other extreme we find Robinho, Beckham and Ronaldo (all of them playing for Real Madrid). A detailed analysis of Ronaldinho s evolution shows his periods of greatest media exposure: December (match against Real Madrid and awards by France Football and FIFA) and the final of the Champions League. The Champions League is the strongest league in the world, as it gathers the majority of media value football superstars. The section duels of media value glimpses the potential extent and variety of analysis which the information contained in our data set allows. In table 1 we show one of the main results of this twice-a-year study: the ranking of players with highest media value at the present moment. To compute the media value, we combine both measures of popularity and notoriety for each football player. In accordance with the explanation given in Section 9 of this report, the popularity refers to the interest that eacy player draws from fans and institutions around the world, as captured by the number of web sites in which the player and his team are explicitly mentioned (and introducing additional filters to avoid inaccurate results). The second element of the media value comes from the notoriety associated to the number of news that the player generates, which is mainly driven by his sport performance, although it also occasionally depends on non-sport related factors. To calculate the notoriety, we had into account the main languages in the world. In the past, ESIrg has carried out studies on the media value impact generated by shortterm competitions, like the Football World Cup 26 and the Basketball World

11 1 Championship, also in 26. In those instances, the records obtained correspond basically to the media value that the specific competition brings forth to a particular team or player, rather than refer to the global media value of them. As we have stressed in those reports, some time has to pass by before we try to predict the long term persistence of such events. In effect, it is not easy to evaluate the extent in which special impacts as those coming from a World Cups would be translated into the intrinsic and established media value. ESIrg considers that an accurate media value of a player is cumulative intrinsic value generated throughout the season, while the player participates with his team in different competitions. Moreover, we consider that the most precise and reasonable measure of the true media value is the one obtained by computing the average of the records taken twice a week along the whole season. This is certainly a more accurate procedure than attending only to the values achieved in a sort competition. It is also better measure than computing only the records reported at the end of a long term league, since it might be bias by the amplification factor of occasional success or (especially regarding notoriety) by other isolated events that provokes a big eco in the media, but has not a sport-related nature. For instance, the media value of Rooney experienced a huge increase at the end of the season, due to the proximity of his injury to the World Cup and the speculation around his participation on it. The case of Henry is also paradigmatic of this: the uncertainty about his final team destination, once the Champions League concluded, strongly influenced his media value. Similarly, the news of Zidane retirement generated a rise in media value in the following weeks after his announcement. These aspects advise computing the individual media value upon the average records obtained throughout the period of the competition. In this way, we avoid the distortions coming from sporadic events. Hence, we consider that the long spell covered by our procedure ensures the stability and accuracy of our measure. After these methodological comments, we are ready to analyse the results of table 1. At the end of 25/6 season, the ranking of media value presents Ronaldinho (FC Barcelona) as the worldwide leading star. His score reaches as high as 17.5 points, meaning that his media value is 17.5 times greater than the average figure for the 97 players competing in the Champions League and included in our data base. The next three positions are hold by well-established superstars: Ronaldo (Real Madrid) who gets 15.2 points and the second position and Beckham (also in Real Madrid) with 14 points. The other player is a younger and emerging figure: Rooney (from Manchester Utd), who reaches 14.2 points and climbs into the third position in the world ranking. Note that the two leaders in the market are Brazilian players and the next two top players are English ones.

12 11 Among the 2 individuals with the highest score in media value, we find 9 players in the Spanish LFP. Six of them belong to Real Madrid: Zidane (now retired), Van Nistelrooy, Raúl, and Robinho, in addition to those already mentioned. For which regards FC Barcelona, besides Ronaldinho, we find Eto o and Messi. Then, another 7 players compete in the English Premier League: four of them in Chelsea (including the recently hired Ballack and Shevchenko) and one player for each of other three clubs: Manchester Utd, Arsenal and Liverpool. The rest of the 2 top positions is occupied by players in the Italian league (Adriano in Inter de Milan and Del Piero for Juventus), one in the German league (Kahn, Bayern Munich) and the last one in the Scottish league (Keane, playing for Celtic, even though he started the season in Manchester Utd). The high concentration of football superstars suggests the leading status of the Spanish and English football leagues. Table 1 Ranking of players with the highest Media Value Player Club League Media Value 1 Ronaldinho Barcelona Esp Ronaldo Real Madrid Esp Rooney Manchester Utd Ing Beckham Real Madrid Esp Henry Arsenal Ing Eto'o Barcelona Esp Ballack (Bayern Munich)/Chelsea Ing Zidane Real Madrid Esp Van Nistelrooy (Manchester Utd)/Real Madrid Esp Messi Barcelona Esp Gerrard Liverpool Ing Raúl Real Madrid Esp Adriano Inter Milan Ita Lampard Chelsea Ing Kahn Bayern Munich Ale Keane (Manchester Utd)/Rangers Esc Robinho Real Madrid Esp Drogba Chelsea Ing Del Piero Juventus Ita Shevchenko (Milan AC)/Chelsea Ing 5.62 In Table 2 compares the final ranking of players with the prevailing one at the beginning of the season, restraining the analysis to the top 1 players. As shown, the leading player was initially Ronaldo (Real Madrid), followed by Beckham (also in Real Madrid). The third position was hold by Ronaldinho, who throughout the season climbed to the first place. Therefore, we have witnessed during the season a change in leadership of media value for football players. Besides, two players of the initial top 1 are no longer there at the end of the season: Raúl and Robinho. Both individuals play for Real Madrid, but they possess a

13 12 complete diverse profile: while the former is a mature star, the latter is a promising younger who has still to prove his potential. Among the players improving his position in the ranking, we find Rooney and Ronaldinho. It is noteworthy that a very young player, Messi, is among the top players, even from the beginning of the season. It manifests the huge expectation that he had awaken from football fans all around the world. Coming back to the examine of Table 1 reveals that Eto o and Henry, who were not within the top 1 at the beginning of the season, have experienced also an important increase in popularity and notoriety, which naturally stems from their performance along the Champions League. Table 2 Ranking of the top players (in Media Value) in the previous season Initial Ranking Player Team Initial VM Final Ranking (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 1 Ronaldo Real Madrid Beckham Real Madrid Ronaldinho Barcelona Robinho Real Madrid Zidane Real Madrid Rooney Manchester Utd Raúl Real Madrid Ballack Bayern Munich Van Nistelrooy Manchester Utd Messi Barcelona Zoom 2.1: Changes in Media Value The following lines further analyze the players Media Value, as it shows who have experienced the greatest changes throughout the season. Our analysis here is constrained to the main superstars, namely to the top 5 players. We compute the variation of media impact as the difference between the global media value (average for all the season) and the corresponding figure at the beginning of the league (average of the records registered between September and November). Table 3 ranks the seven players who experienced a greatest increase in media value, while Table 4 does the same for the seven losers. (Both tables report this information in column 4, whereas column 5 gives the percentage change with respect to the values at the beginning of the season). Note that five of the seven players whose popularity has grown the most, participated in the Final match of the Champions League. This finding conveys a

14 13 clear message of the relevance of this competition for global media impact. The player who has enjoyed a greatest increase in absolute terms throughout the season is Ronaldinho, whereas in relative terms the winner is by far Cesc Fabregas (Arsenal). Table 3 Players (within Top 5) who experienced higher rates of Media Value increase Player Team Media Value Increase in MV points Percentage Increase (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 1 Ronaldinho FC Barcelona Rooney Manchester Utd Eto'o FC Barcelona Cesc Arsenal Lehmann Arsenal Larsson FC Barcelona Terry Chelsea Regarding the players enduring loses of popularity and notoriety, we find five Real Madrid players. Naturally, as far as we have concentrated in the absolute value, this result is strongly influenced by the astonishing starting records associated to these players at the beginning of the season. In this regard, Robinho was the player who lost the greatest value, reflecting presumably the fact that his sport performance did not match the high expectations he had initially generated. This is an example of the difference between initial media impact and the notion of Media Value, which is a much more stable notion. More importantly, Robinho also presents the highest decrease in relative terms. The case of Beckham is similar to the one of Ronaldo: they are well established superstars so as regards the sport context as within the commercial sphere. The bad sport performance they have had along with the injuries, has resulted into a significant decrease in mass media exposure (Remember anyway that they still hold the second and four position in Media Value worldwide). Table 4 Players (within the Top 5) who have lost larger points of Media Value Player Team Media Value Loses in MV points Perecentage Decreasse 1 Robinho Real Madrid Beckham Real Madrid Ronaldo Real Madrid Duff Chelsea Baptista Real Madrid Raúl Real Madrid Vieira Juventus

15 14 Zoom 2.2: Detailed analysis of Ronaldinho, worldwide media leader The large data set (on which the indexes of media value are built), allows performing very detailed analysis for individual players. Ronaldinho represents a paradigmatic case, as he is the new leader in the worldwide ranking of media value. The type of study we present in the following lines could be done for each of the 9 players of our data set, although it will be perhaps interesting for just a fraction of them. Our data base is enriched twice a week, by recording the levels of popularity and notoriety of each of the players. At the moment in which this report was completed, the data consist of 6, gross observations. Hence, we can compute the weekly variation in popularity, notoriety and media value for each individual, as the following graphs illustrate for the case of Ronaldinho. Graph 1 contains a summary of the information that is later supplied more in detail. Remind that the total media value assigned to Ronaldinho in Table 1 (17.5 points) is calculated as the average of the values recorded throughout the season. The figure of this variable fluctuates from 1 points, in mid November, up to 25 points, in December and at the end of the season. After careful discussion and contrasting procedures, ESIrg developed a mature measure, which resulted in the ranking shown in Table 1. The ranking is then the final step of a refinement process in the evaluation of intangible assets, like the market value of a football player. The congruence of our results supports the validity of ESIrg methodology. Furthermore, when looking at the weekly variation of media value, the sequence describes perfectly well what any documented specialist would expect. For example, Graph 1 shows that the media value of Ronaldinho exploited in December, coinciding with relevant events. In December the 3 rd, Ronaldinho completed one of the best performances in his career, scoring two outstanding goals against Real Madrid, endless rival of FC Barcelona. Besides, in the middle of December, he was appointed as the best player in the world, award given by France Football and the FIFA. Naturally, that extremely high international recognition in the media cannot be indefinitely maintained and it dropt down in January and February (which is also congruent with the break in the Champions League competition). Afterwards, in February, the match against Chelsea provoked a new injection that entails a positive impact in his international exposure. The same feature occurs again in the semi-finals against AC Milan, where the contribution of Ronaldinho was also decisive.

16 15 The sustained increase in media value of Ronaldinho in May responds also to a sportmedia rationale. Given his status of FC Barcelona superstar, he draws the interest of all the people showing any interest in the final match of the Champions League. In this context, the winner-take-all argument plays again a crucial role, even if his actual performance was not brilliant during the match. Graph 1 Evolución del Valor Mediático de Ronaldinho Oct Oct Nov Nov Dic Dic Feb Mar Mar Abr Abr May May The analysis of Graphs 2 and 3 separates the media value into its two elements: popularity and notoriety. Although naturally related, each of these components follows its own dynamic path. As regards the popularity, Graph 2 shows that this variable over reacts in front of big sport events (like those mentioned in December and May). However, a large part of these occasional shocks progressively disappear. Graph 2 2 Evolución de la Popularidad de Ronaldinho Oct Oct Nov Nov Dic Dic Feb Mar Mar Abr Abr May May

17 16 Graph 3 Evolución de la Notoriedad global de Ronaldinho Oct Oct Nov Nov Dic Dic Feb Mar Mar Abr Abr May May Graph 3 illustrates the evolution of the number of news generated by Ronaldinho, which we have denoted by notoriety. It can be interesting to examine these factor according to the different linguistic regions. Graphs 4 to 8 display the evolution of news in English, German, French, Italian and Spanish language respectively. It is worth noting that the foreign languages are strongly influenced by elements of local origin. For instance, the increase experienced by Ronaldinho in media exposure in the French media in December, stems presumably from the fact that the award given by France Football is more notorious in that country and from the sportive origins of Ronaldinho, who move to FC Barcelona from PSG. Another example is offered in Graph 7: Italian news coverage is positive bias towards teams playing against Italian clubs. It is meaningful that Ronaldinho received more attention in Italy when he played the semi-final against Milan than when playing the final in the Champions League. Graph 4 24 Evolución de la Notoriedad de Ronaldinho (área de habla inglesa) Oct Oct Nov Nov Dic Dic Feb Mar Mar Abr Abr May May

18 17 Graph Evolución de la Notoriedad de Ronaldinho (área de habla alemana) Oct Oct Nov Nov Dic Dic Feb Mar Mar Abr Abr May May Graph 6 6 Evolución de la Notoriedad de Ronaldinho (área de habla francesa) Oct Oct Nov Nov Dic Dic Feb Mar Mar Abr Abr May May Graph 7 25 Evolución de la Notoriedad de Ronaldinho (área de habla italiana) Oct Oct Nov Nov Dic Dic Feb Mar Mar Abr Abr May May

19 18 Graph 8 6 Evolución de la Notoriedad de Ronaldinho (área de habla española) Oct Oct Nov Nov Dic Dic Feb Mar Mar Abr Abr May May Zoom 2.3: Champions League: leading competition which gather almost all the top football superstars Among the 3 players who reached the highest records of media value during the World Cup in Germany, only four individuals were absent in the final stages of the Champions League (column 5 in Table 5). Firstly, Zidane, who is retired after having achieved the higher position in the World Cup ranking. The other players who did not get to the final rounds of the Champions League are: Owen (Newcasttle, 11º position in the ranking) and Torres (Atlético de Madrid, 22º) since their teams did not qualify. Finally, Buffon (Juventus, 16º) was not there either due to the fact that his team was excluded as a consequence of sport corruption. Similarly, only a few of the top 5 players competing in the World Cup in Germany were not present in the Champions League On the grounds of the precedent comment, and given that our data set collects records for all the players in this competition, our ranking can be considered as a worldwide ranking: basically, almost none of the international football superstars have been left aside of our data set. The same feature can be stated for the Champions League 26-7, which leads to conclude that the Champions League is the league of the football superstars and, consequently, possesses a gigantic media power.

20 19 Table 5 Media Value leaders of the World Cup who are in ChampionsLeague 26/7 Media Value Ranking (World Cup Germany) Country Player In Champions League 1 FRA ZIDANE NO Retired 2 BRA RONALDO YES 3 FRA HENRY YES 4 ENG BECKHAM YES 5 ENG ROONEY YES 6 ITA MATERAZZI YES 7 POR RICARDO YES 8 GER KLOSE YES 9 GER BALLACK YES 1 BRA RONALDINHO YES Motive for no participating 11 ENG OWEN NO Non qualified 12 ITA TOTTI YES 13 POR FIGO YES 14 POR C. RONALDO YES 15 ITA CANNAVARO YES 16 ITA BUFFON NO Excluded 17 FRA VIEIRA YES 18 ITA PIRLO YES 19 GER LEHMANN YES 2 GER PODOLSKI YES 21 ITA GROSSO YES 22 ESP TORRES NO Non qualified 23 BRA KAKÁ YES 24 ARG MESSI YES 25 ENG GERRARD YES 26 ESP RAUL YES 27 POR DECO YES 28 BRA ADRIANO YES 29 ARG CRESPO YES 3 FRA THURAM YES 31 FRA BARTHEZ NO Non qualified 32 FRA RIBERY NO Non qualified 33 ITA DEL PIERO NO Excluded 34 ENG LAMPARD YES 35 ITA NESTA YES 36 UKR SHEVCHENKO YES 37 ARG RIQUELME NO Non qualified 38 POR CARVALHO YES 39 FRA TREZEGUET YES 4 ITA LUCA TONI NO Non qualified 41 ITA ZAMBROTTA YES 42 POR PAULETA NO Non qualified 43 POR PETIT YES 44 ITA GATTUSO YES 45 BRA ROBINHO YES 46 ESP DAVID VILLA YES 47 ARG MAXI RODRIGUEZ NO Non qualified 48 POR MANICHE NO Non qualified 49 ARG SAVIOLA YES 5 BRA CAFU YES

21 2 Zoom 2.4: Big Media Duels between competitors Our methodology permits a broad array of approaches. We can compute, for instance, the media value of each single football players in monthly bases. This section presents, through graphical analysis, some of the most relevant media battles, comparing the evolution of pairs of players with similar characteristics and/or who have drawn especial attention from the fans and the media throughout the season. We have chosen up to eight media duels, reported in graphs 9 to 16. As we pointed out when we examined the case of Ronaldinho, our results are perfectly coherent with which people involved in this business should expect. Again, our conclusions advocate in favour of ESIrg methodology as a well-based and accurate procedure to compute the value and variation of the media value of players. For instance, Graph 9 shows the evolution of Ronaldo together with Ronaldino. The comparative is particularly relevant as it manifests the change in football media leadership. At the time in which the competition started, Ronaldo was the worldwide leader, but he has experienced a decline from October 25 onwards, coinciding with his recurrent injuries. The records for Ronaldo experience a substantial increase when he reappeared in March 26, leading him back to a brief spell of leadership. However, since Real Madrid was disqualified from the Champions League and lost the chances to win the Spanish LFP, Ronaldo s figure has experienced a deeper turn down. Moreover, the arrival of Van Nistelrooy to Real Madrid foretells an even bigger gap between these two Brazilians when the new report of media ranking will be computed. Graph 9 25 Media Value Variation Media Value Points Ronaldinho (FCB) Ronaldo (RM) Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

22 21 As regards the information displayed in Graph 1, the final increase experienced by Zidane may presumably be due to the announcement of his retirement after the World Cup. Note that Zidane was appointed as the indisputable leader of media value according to the ESIrg report of the World Cup in Germany (Cf.: ranking Table 5). Graph 1 25 Media Value Variation Media Value Points Beckham (RM) Zidane (RM) Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Graph 11 shows another intense battle between Henry and Eto o that was eventually won by the former. The increase in media value of Henry in the last part of the season could be influenced by the hesitations on whether or not he was going to move from Arsenal to Barcelona. Besides, as we mentioned for the case of Ronaldinho, Henry has possibly benefited from his status of major media superstar, which provides him more than proportional shares of media interest. This phenomenon is known in the literature as the winner-take-all effect. Graph 11 Media Value Points Media Value Variation Henry (Ars) Eto'o (FCB) Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

23 22 Graph 12 compares two young promising stars: Messi (FC Barcelona) and Robinho (Real Madrid). The evolution clearly benefits Messi, in spite of him being injured since March. Graph Media Value Variation Media Value Points Messi (FCB) Robinho (RM) Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May For which regards the analysis shown in Graph 13, the duel between Sol Campbell (Arsenal) and Belletti (Barcelona) possesses special interest, as it gives elements to respond the question: What is the economic value of scoring a goal in the final of the Champions League? According to our data, the answer is that Belleti doubled his media value due to his decisive goal in the final (he increases from 1.5 to 3 points in media value). On the other hand, Campbells goal, allowed him to move from 3 to 5 points. Again, to evaluate the success of one single big event, we need to cross-check the information of the following report of media value that is release every six months. Graph 13 Media Value Points Media Value Variation Sol Campbell (Ars) Belletti (FCB) Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

24 23 Another interesting media battle had two German goalkeepers as protagonist: Kahn and Lehmann. Only at the end of the season the emerging star managed to surpass Kahn, due to his appointment as the first keeper in the German national team for the World Cup. Graph 14 Media Value Points Media Value Variation Lehmann (Ars) Kahn (BM) Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Graph Media Value Variation Media Value Points Raul (RM) Adriano (IM) Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Graph 16

25 24 14 Media Value Variation Media Value Points Ballack (BM) Kaká (Mil) Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Finally, Graphs 17 to 19 examine the evolution of those considered the best players of the Champions League 25/6 in each field position. All of them display a positive tendency in the second half of the season. Among the defenders, Eboué emerges as a revelation, as he was almost unknown until later stages of the competition. Regarding the midfielders, Riquelme experienced a big loss once Villarreal was sent out of the Champions League. Given that this team will not participate in Europe in season 26/7, it is unlikely that Riquelme will reach similar records as those in the previous season. Graph 17 Media Value Points Media Value Variation Best Defender UEFA CL Puyol (FCB) Eboué (Ars) Cannavaro (Juv) Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Graph 18

26 25 Media Value Points Media Value Variation Best Midfielder UEFA CL Riquelme (Vill) Juninho (OL) Deco (FCB) 1 Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Graph 19 Media Value Variation Best Strikers UEFA CL 25 Media Value Points Eto'o (FCB) Henry (Ars) Ronaldinho (FCB) Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Zoom 2.5: Relationship between popularity and notoriety ESirg carries out the analysis of media value and develops its results on the grounds of two elements that could initially seem undistinguishable: popularity and notoriety. On one hand, the notion of popularity is associated with the number of institutions, professional agents or mere fans who show interest in a particular player. The evaluation of this factor is captured through the number of web sites associated to the player and his team all around the world. On the other hand, the concept of notoriety refers instead to the interest that the player

27 26 receives from the media, measured by the number of news that the player generates in the main languages. These two notions are obviously related in both directions: high level of sport performance leads to more notoriety, which in turn provokes a greater appreciation of his sport value implying subsequent increases in popularity. This causality chain also operates in the opposite way: players with high standards of popularity enjoy a legacy effect leading to continuous interest on the part of the press, even if his current sport performance does not match any more high levels of notoriety. In summary, notoriety brings about popularity but popularity also generates notoriety. Nonetheless, these are not identical notions and follow different dynamic rhythms, as the detailed analysis for Ronaldinho shows (Zoom 2.3 and Graphs 2 and 3). We consider that notoriety drives in the long run the level of popularity rather than the other way around. This is due to the fact that notoriety depends on current sport performance of the player, which will determine the future level of popularity. In accordance with this view, we can establish the following stylised patterns: 1. Current notoriety (especially that of a clear positive nature) implies increases of future popularity in as much as the level of notoriety does not drop down in the future. 2. Relative smaller levels of notoriety in the present entails diminishing standards of future popularity, unless the level of notoriety increases in the future. Finally, we complete the analysis with data of Graph 2, which shows the relationship between notoriety and popularity for the 2 players with highest records of media value. We have included the line indicating the trend followed by the observations. Points above the line indicates that the level of notoriety is greater than the average, given the level of popularity. The farther are the observations from the line, the greater is the unbalance between notoriety and popularity. If players manage to maintain high records of notoriety (through a positive sport performance), our forecast includes increases in popularity and, hence, growing levels of total media value. Players facing this favourable situation includes Ronaldinho, Messi and Eto o. On the contrary, observations below the line correspond to players who have level of popularity greater than those we would expect attending to their notoriety status and given the behaviour of the rest of the sample. In this situation we find players such as Del Piero, Shevchenko, Gerrard or Beckham, who will experience loses in media value unless they experience improvements in notoriety coming from sport success. Graph 2

28 27 Relación entre Popularidad y Notoriedad de los jugadores 25 2 Ronaldinho Notoriedad Messi Eto'o Adriano Gerrard Shevchenko Del Piero Beckham Popularidad

29 28 3. Media Value of the managers Sir Alex Ferguson (Manchester United) is the highest ranked football manager in the world. His media value reaches as high as 15.2 points. The second place is hold by Mourinho (Chelsea), who ranks 13.1 points, while the third one corresponds to Rijkaard (Barcelona) with 8.4 puntos. In some cases, like Mourinho and Ferguson, the manager is the most popular personality within the Club, since they get higher records than the players. Rijkaard has overcome at the end of the season the gap in media value that he had with respect to Mourinho. In order to compute the ranking of media value for the managers of the teams, we have followed exactly the same methodology than the one applied to the players. Table 6 offers the results, providing the answer to one of the debates within the football circles Has Mourinho (Chesea) become even more popular than Ferguson (Manchester Utd)? Our data allot a negative answer to this query, suggesting that the fans and the press still concede more importance to the historical records of Ferguson. His 15.2 points represent more than 2 points of difference with respect to Mourinho. On the other hand, Rijkaard (Barcelona) is placed in the third position and far away from these other two. The four managers of English teams involved in the Champions League are found within the five with greatest media value. Table 6 Ranking of managers with the greatest media value Coach Team Country Media Value 1 Ferguson Manchester Utd England Mourinho Chelsea England Rijkaard Barcelona Spain Wenger Arsenal England Benitez Liverpool England Magath Bayern Munich Germany Luxemburgo Real Madrid Spain Capello Juventus Italy Hiddink PSV Netherlands 3. 1 Ancelotti Milan AC Italy 2.9 Zoom 3.1: media duels between managers. Next, we compare through graphical analysis the evolution of the coaches media value using monthly records. Graph 21 shows the unexpected and tight battle between the

30 29 managers of the two teams playing the final match of the Champions League: Rijkaard (Barcelona) and Wenger (Arsenal). Then, we show the duel confronting Mourinho and Rijkaard, which will be presumably repeated during the next season. Even if the predominance of Mourinho has been indisputable, at the end of the season the distance has been noticeable reduced up to a minuscule expression. The similar position achieved by both managers ventures a tight battle during the current season. Finally, our analysis is completed by the joint evolution of coaches that are managing English (Graph 23), German (Graph 24) and Italian (Graph 25) teams. Graph Media Value Variation Media Value Points Rijkaard (FCB) Wenger (Ars) Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Graph 22 Media Value Points Media Value Variation Rijkaard (FCB) Mourinho (Ch) Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

31 3 Graph 23 Media Value Points Media Value Variation Ferguson (MU) Wenger (Ars) Mourinho (Ch) Benitez (Liv) Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Graph 24 7 Media Value Variation Media Value Points Magath (BM) Schaaf (WB) Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Graph 25 Media Value Variation Media Value Points Capello (Juv) Mancini (IM) Ancelotti (Mil) Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

32 31 4. Media Value of the Teams Real Madrid is the world leader of media value as it achieves 84.2 points. FC Barcelona obtained 72.5 points and holds the second place, while the third one goes to Manchester United with 65.6 points. Real Madrid has suffered a significant deterrence throughout the season due to bad sport performance. FC Barcelona, Arsenal and Villarreal emerge as the main winners, in terms of media value, of the season. FC Barcelona is team with the greatest dependence with respect to the principal superstar (Ronladinho). Other teams with high rates of reliance are Villarreal (Riquelme) and Inter de Milán (Adriano). English, Spanish and Italian teams generate the 75% of total media value. European football is a unique spectacle involving large audiences which are gathered not just within the home town of the team, but often all around the world. Therefore, the inspection of the media value by teams entails particular importance. What is the team attracting greatest popularity and notoriety? Again the methodology developed by ESIrg provides the right approach to this question. Our data base comprises information for all the 32 teams competing in the Champions League in season 25/6. The media value of each team is calculated by aggregation of the media value obtained by the 15 most valuable players in the team. Real Madrid is found to be the most powerful team in the world, as its ranking of media value reaches 84.2 points. Note that this is so even after three consecutive seasons without achieving any sport trophy, which is a hindrance for media development purposes. As a matter of fact, the distance with the second team (FC Barcelona) has strongly been reduced: from the 35 points of difference one year ago, has become now about 11 points. At the beginning of the season FC Barcelona was in the third position, but it has overcome Manchester United that right now holds the third position with 65.6 points. Chelsea occupy the forth place granted by its 52.9 points. In the top 1 of teams, in terms of media value, we find four clubs from England, three Italian clubs, two Spanish ones and finally one from Germany. Table 7

33 32 Most powerful teams in the world, in terms of media value Team Media Value RM=1 1 Real Madrid Barcelona Manchester Utd Chelsea Arsenal Bayern Munich Milán AC Juventus Liverpool Inter de Milán In Graph 26 we have calculated the proportion of total media value generated by each one of the 32 teams under examination. Real Madrid still controls 12% of the total media value, followed by Barcelona with 1%. The eight most powerful teams in Europe represent around 65% of total media value of European football. Graph 26 Distribución del valor mediático total, por equipos Real Madrid 12% Resto 35% Barcelona 1% Manchester Utd 9% Juventus 6% Milán AC 6% Bayern Munich 7% Arsenal 7% Chelsea 8% The scope of the following analysis consists of estimating the influence of the last season upon the media value of the clubs. To this aim, we compute the difference (in percentage) of the global value accumulated at the end of the season with the corresponding record attained only at the beginning. Graph 27 makes manifested that FC Barcelona is the team which has increased the most its media value (2%) followed by Arsenal (almost 1%).