Futures study. Meetings and conventions 2030: A study of megatrends shaping our industry

Transcription

1 Futures study Meetings and conventions 2030: A study of megatrends shaping our industry 1

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3 Contents Table of Contents Preface Petra Hedorfer (GNTB)... 5 Matthias Schultze (GCB)... 5 Partners and supporters of the study... 6 Situation and challenges Megatrends Globalisation and internationalisation "Peak Everything" Shortage of resources Urbanisation City of the future Demographic change, feminisation and diversity Technology in work and life Sustainable development Mobility in the future Safety Scenarios...54 Architecture Transfer of knowledge Technology Summary of study results...74 Appendix Methodology References Participants in the futures study Glossary Solely for reasons of better readability, we use the masculine form only for gender-specific terms in our study. This includes both genders as a matter of course. 3

4 Preface It is not our task to predict the future but to be wellprepared for it. PERICLES (5TH CENTURY BEFORE CHRIST) 4

5 Preface Petra Hedorfer, Chief Executive Officer of the German National Tourist Board (GNTB) and Chair of the GCB s Board of Directors Matthias Schultze, Managing Director of the GCB German Convention Bureau When it comes to the rating of destinations for meetings and conventions, Germany has always been in the top range of all important international rankings. But it would be careless to rely on the assumption that this favourable situation would automatically continue. Due to globalisation and technology, increasing mobility and the constantly evolving idea of sustainability, the general circumstances are subject to rapid change. The German Convention Bureau has made it their business to determine the challenges we might be facing in the years to come, and the measures that might be suitable to maintain our success as a meeting and convention destination on a high level or even increase it in the future. To paint a detailed picture of probable future developments in the meeting and convention business, the GCB has prepared this study with the support of a wide selection of industry partners. The joint preparation for the challenges we will be facing bears many opportunities for further growth! With reference to eight generally applicable so-called "megatrends", numerous fields of activity may be derived for our industry, which shall be further examined in the eight chapters of the study. Specific scenarios have been designed for this study focussing on architecture, transfer of know ledge and technologies, which provide a good overview of how trends that are currently emerging will develop up until The aim of the study will have been reached if a constant dialogue continous and sustainable is established among the players in the industry as well as with representatives of politics and science, which will ideally develop into a continuous process of jointly and collaboratively managing the challenges we will be facing. Against this background, providers and event planners on the one hand can derive individual strategies, and industry associations can use the study to create a common roadmap for the future on the other. I would like to thank our study partners whose support has clearly enabled us to prepare the study in the given form, the participants in the Delphi surveys, the participants in the interviews and workshops, the numerous industry experts, the representatives of politics and society, the scientists from the most different disciplines and the IZT (Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment). 5

6 Study partners Study partners In your opinion, which will be the most important challenges in the area of meetings and conventions of the future, and why have you participated in the study? Joachim König, EVVC European Association of Event Centres Gerrit Jessen, MCI Deutschland GmbH "For the EVVC, the crucial challenge is to inform the members of the association in a comprehensive way about trends, outlooks and concepts regarding possible future developments, identifying critical developments for the event industry early on and mastering them. The biggest challenge will be to recognise the changes to be made to event formats in the future. The demographic development with an increasingly older, more colourful and feminine society will also show its impact on the meeting and convention industry both on the participants and on the staff. Our reason to participate in the study is to learn new approaches in thinking, novel ideas and opportunities regarding this topic." "Globalisation, unlimited mobility and sustainability: these are only three factors which have a large impact on conventions and events already today. We participate in the study to be able to identify future trends early, using them to develop recommendations for our customers. As a global agency, we regularly invest in research concerning the event industry in our core markets." 6

7 Study partners Axel Biermann, Ruhr Tourismus GmbH Stefan Lohnert, SevenCenters of Germany Heike Mahmoud, visitberlin Berlin Convention Office "The Ruhr metropolitan area as the third-largest urban agglomeration in Europe reflects the societal megatrends like a melting pot. Examples of the future-oriented change in the region are the former coal mines which are now used as locations for events and meetings, and InnovationCity Ruhr, a project regarding a climate-friendly reconstruction of a model city. We have participated in the study because we would like to obtain new findings to implement this new spirit of innovation of the region in meetings and convention tourism too." "The most important challenge in our industry is as simple as difficult: to be able to constantly adapt to the framework conditions which are changing in an increasingly fierce way and markedly faster. Those can be space-related, technical but also legal requirements and this in an international context. The study is an important opportunity to mutually bring us up to speed, comparing our activities to the actions of the top players in the industry in addition." "Conventions and meetings represent an important part of knowledge transfer and personal exchange of information. Markets and customer behaviour are changing at a breathtaking speed, almost in parallel with the technological evolution of society. One of our tasks is to provide strong networks and platforms for innovation and trends to our Berlin customers. The integration of science in this process, as is currently realised by the German Convention Bureau, is an important contribution for the meeting industry, not only in Germany but all over the world. Berlin is one of the leading convention destinations of the world. We have participated in this study in order to learn the requirements of the future." 7

8 Study partners EDITOR OF THE STUDY STUDY PARTNERS 8

9 Supporters SUPPORTERS OF THE STUDY German National Tourist Board 9

10 Introduction Situation and challenges Reliable information about the future and the identification of actionable options for shaping that future are more and more urgently required to be able to master the big challenges of globalisation, rapid societal change and the technological and scientific changes both in terms of the seizing of opportunities and the assessment of risks. Megatrends Futurology: Desktop Research, Delphi Survey, Interviews with Experts, Scenario Workshop, Online Workshop Future Study: Fields of action Future Scenarios Statement from Experts Measures and Suggestions 2014: Development of a Roadmap 10

11 Introduction In the past decades, meetings and conventions have developed into significant economic factors with comparatively good prospects for the future. In Germany, 2.97 million events hosting 362 million participants were held in Among all meeting and convention destinations, Germany is presently the number one location in Europe and number two in the world - after the U.S.A. An important reason for the unchallenged position as European market leader is Germany s excellent infrastructure. A broad network of providers from various industries offers ideal prerequisites for the organisation of successful meetings and conventions. The wide range of top-class meeting hotels, congress centres and event locations is of particular importance here, as is the excellent value for money. And the transport connections with more than 40 airports, an extensive railway network and well developed motorways are unique as well. In addition, German providers distinguish themselves by their high power of innovation and their leading position in the area of "Green Meetings" and sustainability, for example. "Meetings and conventions 2030: A study of megatrends shaping our industry" shall contribute to the efforts aimed at safeguarding that power of innovation. This study identifies, analyses and evaluates trends and drifts with regard to their expected development until 2030 and their significance for the meeting and convention industry. The aim is to bring attention to relevant trends early on to allow the industry to respond in time, thereby protecting and further expanding Germany s successful position as a meeting and convention destination. The providers and meeting organisers of today shall be offered a tool for shaping the meeting and convention industry of tomorrow, to be able to efficiently go along with developments, and partly even influence or control them. Events promote innovation The meeting and convention industry in its multifaceted appearance is particularly affected by the ever increasing complexity of the modern world. Meetings, conventions and events serve as platforms for exchanging experiences and ideas. For this reason, their successful organisation also depends on numerous contextual conditions and prerequisites and this is not likely to change during the next few decades. By forming a basis for an exchange of information and the transfer of knowledge and supporting all aspects of education, events also promote innovation. In this way, they generate impulses for political, economic, scientific, and social processes, serving as an instrument for international understanding in addition. All the more, significant players need to identify and communicate future-oriented topics early on and integrate them in their business strategies. Modern scientific futurology may make a material contribution here, providing support and stimulation. A tool for the meeting and convention industry of tomorrow Recognised experts from all relevant scientific disciplines as well as partners and members of the German Convention Bureau were involved in the scientific work in a targeted way, contributing their expertise to this study. Proven methods of modern scientific futurology were used for preparing the study: in addition to guideline-based interviews with international and national experts, these included scientific trend analyses, a two-step Delphi survey of selected international and national experts, a broad online survey within the industry on the further development of the meeting and convention industry and a processoriented and participatorily designed outlining of scenarios. Initially, this study gives an overview of the current situation of the meeting and convention industry. Based on that, selected social megatrends especially important to the industry are described: globalisation, shortage of resources, urban development, demographic change, feminisation and diversity, mechanisation and digitalisation, sustainable development, mobility and safety. DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE INDIVIDUAL DEVELOPMENTS, THE DESCRIPTIONS INCLUDED IN THE STUDY SHALL NOT SERVE AS FORECASTS. THEY SHALL RATHER STIMULATE THE READER TO IMAGINE VARIOUS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENTS. These developments are very plausible and likely; due to the complexity of the individual developments, the descriptions shall not serve as "forecasts", however. They shall rather stimulate the reader to imagine various and multifaceted possible developments which are interconnected in addition. 11

12 Megatrends Globalisation and internationalisation Peak Everything" Urbanisation city of the future Demographic change, feminisation and diversity Technology in work and life Sustainable development Mobility in the future Safety 12

13 Megatrends Megatrends An important starting point for futures studies based on scientific facts is the concept of "megatrends" which is also used for the given study. Trends in general indicate factors resulting from change and innovation. Megatrends are long-term overall transformations encompassing a long time frame and demonstrating a wide reach as well as high impact and stability. They can be experienced by anyone, as they lead to a paradigm shift or reorientation e.g. in politics, during leisure time, at work, and in the structures of value creation (in the meeting and convention industry, for example), thus resulting in overall change. The term "megatrend" was created by John Naisbitt, a U.S. trend researcher, in his book of the same name in Today, four characteristic features are attributed to a megatrend: Stability: exists for at least two decades Omnipresence: has an effect on all areas of life Universality: is of a basically global character despite regional differences Robustness: survives even temporary setbacks 13

14 Megatrends Globalisation and internationalisation MEGATREND Globalisation and internationalisation 14

15 Megatrends Globalisation and internationalisation Contrary to previous ages, the kind of globalisation which has been observable during the past decades is a process impacting the entire surface of our planet. This process is multifaceted and can be identified in almost all areas of social life. It immediately involves more and more population groups on all continents. Increasing global interrelations between areas like economy, politics, social life, culture, communication and environment can be seen. The complexity of global relationships grows on the level of individuals, institutions, states, companies and associations as well as supranational organisations such as the European Union. This consolidation of relationships between states in particular is referred to as internationalisation. Development is directed away from merely national politics and towards the consolidation with and delegation of regulation competences to supranational and international institutions. Foreign participants in events in Germany (in millions) *Forecast based on the average annual change rate for the period , EITW 2020: A total of 80 million overnight stays by foreign guests in Germany +2m Americas Globalisation indicators Almost all of the indicators for globalisation such as individual mobility, goods transport volume, communication and internet access are pointing upward. The same applies to the areas of culture, language and politics. International legal relations are increasing, as is the number of organisations, the importance of non-governmental organisations is growing. SOFI futures studies 60m m m Asia, Arabic Gulf States +14m Europe SOURCE: GNTB FORECAST As part of an international think tank - the "Millennium Project" - futurologists and masterminds gather information about futures studies, and produce the "State of the Future Index" (SOFI) annually. The researchers assess areas indicating an improvement or deterioration during the past 20 years, projecting them over the next 10 years into the future. The latest SOFI stated: 15

16 Megatrends Globalisation and internationalisation "There is less poverty in the world, fewer infectious diseases, and less war. People are living longer, the literacy rate is growing, more women are in public offices and the internet is more widespread than ever". b bfor further information please refer to Localisation and diversity as countertrend As is the case with all megatrends, globalisation is no monolithic process. There are opposing trends like the important phenomenon of "glocalisation" or localisation, where local and traditional aspects are strengthened. At a cultural level, diversity and variety are, in part, a result of globalisation. For globally acting companies, this means that they have to better take into account the requirements of local customers and markets despite the increasing homogenisation in many product areas. This is especially true for the meeting and convention industry. In view of the rapidly changing framework conditions, the significance of meetings and conventions distributed over several locations and countries is growing. Now it is even more important to know perceptions and backgrounds from the various markets, countries and people in order to plan and react correctly. Globalisation as a dynamical process The forms of globalisation represent a comprehensive and powerful process causing different interests to arise which may be of international impact. b b"global Trends 2030": further link at Increasing efforts to achieve "global governance" Against the background of existing and possibly arising economic, technological, ecological and sociocultural challenges, the efforts to achieve "global governance" should intensify. Understanding and concerted action ("coalitions of the willing" in climate protection, for example) will be agreed upon more often in the future. Due to globalisation, meetings and conventions will have to become even more international. What does this mean in detail for the meeting and conventions industry in Germany during the next two decades? "Due to the international competition between destinations, the participation in conventions will also depend on the ability and willingness to pay for such participation in view of economic crises. The attendance at events in far away countries might decrease also because of the time needed and the associated efforts. In any case, intercultural skills have to be strengthened and technological options need to be utilised in a targeted way." Professor Dr. Ulrich Reinhardt, Scientific Head at the FOUNDATION FOR FUTURE STUDIES (BAT British American Tobacco) 16

17 Megatrends Globalisation and internationalisation Conclusions With globalisation, the international competition among former competitors in the German meeting and convention industry will aggravate. In addition, there are emerging destinations such as the BRICS states. Initially, they will be attractive mainly within a regionally limited area, but later develop global attractiveness depending on their international orientation especially in view of the prospering economies and the growing middle class of those regions which are of special relevance for meetings and conventions. During the course of the progressing internationalisation and globalisation of the markets and societal structures, the meeting and convention industry will gain in importance. Suitably equipped meeting locations and events are an essential prerequisite for the increasing processes of clarification and networking. For globally acting organisations in particular, efficient exchange of information and transfer of knowledge are of particular importance as their market position and services are mainly based on the development and leveraging of intellectual resources. Patterns of expectation, languages, cultural behaviours as well as ways of communication and interaction will need to be taken into consideration even more in the future. This applies to salutations, for example, religious rituals, necessary meeting breaks and locations for prayer, forms of contact and taboos, holidays and food culture. But the local ambience of event locations is important as well and has to meet international requirements and competitive criteria. Against the background of increasing globalisation, destinations are facing the challenge to better concentrate their forces. Ideally, they will jointly try to attract events, participants and guests using a coordinated or even shared strategy. INTERCULTURAL SKILLS GROW MORE AND MORE IMPORTANT.» Challenges Intensified competition with emerging destinations such as the BRICS states»» Adapting to a new range of participants from the emerging destinations Growing importance of meeting locations and events as an essential platform for the increasing processes of clarification and networking Increasing requirements in the area of intercultural skills / sensitivity» Measures Taking into account patterns of expectation, languages, cultural behaviours as well as ways of communication and interaction when preparing and organising successful meetings and conventions (including the use of technology)»» Qualification and further education measures for the strengthening of intercultural sensitivity, language skills and attentive manners of communication Investing in market research and education Forming strategic marketing alliances 17

18 Megatrends Peak Everything MEGATREND "Peak Everything" Shortage of resources 18

19 Megatrends Peak Everything Since the beginning of industrialisation, the consumption of natural resources has increased hugely all over the world. Several resources are clearly facing depletion, which partly results in their prices significantly increasing. Environmental stress may affect regions worldwide, influencing the utilisation of resources. At the same time, the global population of currently around 7 billion people will have grown to around 9 billion by the year 2050, which will additionally aggravate the problem. Climate change The consequences are visible in climate change. Between 1970 and 2000 the portion of CO 2 in the atmosphere increased by 1.5 parts per million (ppm) per year - since then, it has been increasing by 2.1 ppm per year. The developed as well as the developing countries are responsible for more than 80 per cent of those emissions. Although they have committed to reducing emissions in the meantime, this commitment will not be sufficient to reduce CO2 concentration in an adequate way. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) had actually expected the given changes of the weather and climate to occur only after With the so-called "Earth Overshoot Day", the Global Footprint Network has pointed out for years when the yearly available environmental budget would be consumed each year. In the year 2013, this was 20 August instead of 31 December: this means that mankind had consumed the environmental budget for the whole year within only eight months. In 2011, the budget had lasted for around one month longer: until 27 September. IN 2013, THE "EARTH OVERSHOOT DAY" - THE DAY WHEN THE YEARLY AVAILABLE ENVIRONMENTAL BUDGET IS DEPLETED - WAS 20 AUGUST. Consumption of natural resources 100% In 2011, mankind consumed 135% of the resources generated by nature 135% QUELLE: FOOTPRINTNETWORK.ORG 19

20 Megatrends Peak Everything Consequences of the climate change It is expected that extreme weather events will occur more often, which may affect the areas of infrastructure or technology, for example, posing a social, economic and ecological challenge for the international community. Within the global context, Germany needs to better prepare for the consequences of climatic changes as well. Work-life balance Apart from ecological stress there is also stress in the social and cultural areas: acceleration and omnipresent performance requirements and performance increases are more and more depleting personal resources as well. Against the background of this development, work-life balance will play an increasingly important role. Efficient utilisation of resources and social responsibility So far, societies respond with technological innovations and individual measures. Resource efficiency is increased and renewable resources are used. Companies respond to the increasing requirements by means of activities in the areas of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and Corporate Citizenship (CC). In addition to those activities, further measures to meet the challenges are conceivable, such as restrictions for resourceintensive products and services. Due to resource bottlenecks, climate change and the environmental burden, the social, economic and ecological problems already visible today will have further increased by Which measures do you take to meet the challenges? "The Lufthansa Group has been working for years on meeting people's growing need for mobility in a way which is as environmentally-friendly as possible. In the area of climate protection, the Group has big plans and has set itself ambitious targets. Our environmental targets are guided by the industry's established four-pillar strategy which links various environmentally-relevant measures. They range from technological progress, via an improved infrastructure and operational measures right through to economic instruments. In addition to investments of billions in new, particularly efficient and quiet aircraft, we are involved in numerous trend-setting projects which sustainably improve the environmental compatibility of flying." Astrid Messmer Rodriguez, Head of Business Area Strategy and Coordinator of the Corporate Responsibility Council, Deutsche Lufthansa AG 20

21 Conclusions The meeting and convention industry is affected by shortage of resources, climate change and stress in several ways. Approaches directed at ecological and sustainably organised meetings and conventions will therefore certainly increase in importance. The requirements for sustainable actions increase, extending to all areas of conducting meetings and conventions: from the resource-sparing construction of buildings, energy generation, efficient utilisation of resources and air conditioning, through to the catering and the framework programme. Not least the demands regarding the organisers of meetings and conventions and their expertise in terms of sustainable activities are increasing as well. In the future, the certification standards for sustainable events should play a decisive role, both in terms of transparency and scientific integrity. The consequences of climate change will have a varying impact on the different regions. Accordingly, the kinds of impairment will also differ greatly. Local extreme weather events can affect infrastructure and mobility. In addition, speakers may not be able to show for the meeting, and deliveries may be delayed. In cities with a high frequency of heat waves, equipping the convention buildings with powerful air conditioning systems or other technical solutions will be very important. Depending on the climate, additional costs for prevention and damage handling will arise. With regard to personal stress, offers taking into account psychosocial regeneration as well might meet the participants need for relaxation. Attractively packaged solutions for speakers and participants might generate added value for the event, which makes the journey and participation more "rewarding" in a professional, touristic and personal sense. Megatrends Peak Everything APPROACHES DIRECTED AT ECOLOGICAL AND SUSTAINABLY ORGANISED MEETINGS AND CONVENTIONS ARE BECOMING MORE IMPORTANT.» Challenges Limits to natural resources, resulting in price increases and global environmental burden Disturbances to infrastructure and technology and impairment of mobility as a consequence of extreme weather events and climatic changes Rising importance of work-life balance due to omnipresent acceleration, performance requirements and performance increases» Measures Consistent ecological and sustainable organisation of meetings and conventions and corresponding promotion Construction of convention buildings, energy generation and utilisation of resources, air conditioning, catering and framework programme adapted to the overall requirements Standardisation and certification based on the principles of sustainability for many segments of event organisation (including sustainable and intelligent traffic concepts) Adequate consideration of elements of psychosocial regeneration as an essential need of the participants 21

22 Megatrends Urbanisation MEGATREND Urbanisation City of the future 22

23 Megatrends Urbanisation The process of urbanisation has been going on for centuries and is not likely to end soon. In 1975, 38 per cent of the global population lived in cities, in 2008 it was more than half, and in 2030 it will be more than 60 per cent according to a United Nations report. Even in already strongly urbanised Germany, where three fourths of the population are living in cities, the areas of high population density and metropolitan areas are still growing despite the total population being decreasing. living and working solutions in various forms and price categories will gain importance in the future. Unoccupied areas and buildings in cities may easily become especially lively locations of temporary "intermediate usage". The meeting and convention industry can also benefit from this fact by locating meetings and events exactly at those places of innovative culture production and vivid publicity which initially cannot be developed by urban planning and the real estate market in this manner. Intelligent technologies In the year 2030, the city as a focal point of human life and important location for events will have to rely on intelligent technologies for an efficient and networked infrastructure. It is essential to establish smart technologies as innovative solutions to the requirements faced by cities in various areas of living and working. A specific characteristic of the urbanisation process is the so-called megacity. Depending on the definition, metropolises with at least ten million inhabitants and polycentric agglomerations with several centres are included (McGee 1998). Accordingly, the Rhein-Ruhr metropolitan area with its far more than 13 million inhabitants also counts among the megacities (UN 2004). Due to their growing number, enormous size and rapid development megacities will have gained in importance all over the world by They are focal points of globalisation processes and which should not be underestimated locations for international meetings and congresses in a world which is more and more dominated by cities. Progressing urbanisation on the one hand is accompanied by settlement areas (mainly smaller cities) which are being depleted in the course of the increasing concentration of the population on the other. Such "shrinking cities" can be observed in developed countries in particular. Temporary usage concepts It can be expected that by 2030 even more people than today will use flexible forms of living and working. Be it for a business or private reason temporary Due to their enormous size and rapid development, megacities will have gained in importance as focal points of globalisation all over the world by Which design potentials have to be developed and which approach do you follow with respect to this trend? What does Berlin currently do to achieve its goals? "For conventions, the increasing urbanisation is a challenge which can be mastered using special service, regional integration and attractive additional offers. The specific addressing of target groups and customised touristic offers with local colouring are increasingly important in international competition. Apart from that we try to offer special benefits by means of concrete sustainability projects. Berlin has become part of an international network. As a member of the "BestCities Global Alliance" of ten leading convention cities worldwide, we offer a powerful network and tailored services Heike Mahmoud, CMP, Director Conventions, visitberlin Berlin Convention Office for any customer. The services are reviewed and certified annually by Lloyds Registered Quality Assurance. In this manner, we can offer our customers great added value. Berlin is one of the most diverse metropolises in Europe: a trendsetter in an international context, vivid art and design capital, a city that is constantly changing. Those capacities and innovations have an increasing impact on the contents of meetings and conventions. The know-how of the city leaves its mark on the events in form of key notes or best practices. A win-win situation for both sides for shaping the future." 23