Baseline Study Report Belarus Lithuania Russian Federation (Original language: Russian)

Transcription

1 UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) «Management of the Neman River basin with account of adaptation to climate change» Baseline Study Report Belarus Lithuania Russian Federation (Original language: Russian) Vladimir Korneev Central Research Institute for Complex Use of Water Resources (CRICUWR) Minsk, Republic of Belarus With input from Egidijus Rimkus and Audrius Sepikas (Lithuania), Andrey Shalygin (Russian Federation) August 2011

2 Table of Contents Executive Summary Neman River Basin Overview Background Geology and relief Soils Hydrological characteristics Water resource formation Hydrological observation network Water flow characteristics Ice conditions Overview of extreme weather conditions Climatic conditions Climate overview Overview of the network of meteorological observation posts Water use characteristics in the Neman River Basin Population Industry and agriculture Water use overview Quality of surface water Characterization of the surface water quality monitoring network Surface water quality classification General description of surface water quality Characterization of the previously conducted studies on climate change and its implications for water resources in relation to the Neman River basin Characterization of the meteorological and hydrological observation network in the Neman River basin in the context of using the observation data to analyze and forecast climate change and its impact on the water resources of the river basin Total vulnerability assessment of the Neman River basin water resources to climate change Description of the existing legislative and normative base for development of international cooperation in the Neman River basin and for planning in the field of use of water resources in the context of climate change Brief description of the previously implemented projects related to the Neman River basin Conclusions and Suggestions Reference Index

3 Executive Summary As suggested by hydrometeorological observation data and climatic forecasts, water resources may be vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with major implications for the human society and ecosystems. The growing intensity of precipitation and changing precipitation patterns may increase the risks of floods and excessive droughts. The frequency of high precipitation may increase throughout the 21 st century, raising the probability of flooding and accelerating soil erosion. Drought-prone areas are also expected to increase in size. Rising water temperatures and the changing nature of extreme weather conditions, including floods and droughts of increased intensity, will negatively impact water quality and increase water contamination. Major contaminants may include organic carbon deposits, pathogens, pesticides, and salt. This, along with hot water pollution, may have significant implications for ecosystems, human health, and water supply reliability. Sectors that are projected to be the most affected by these negative impacts will include agriculture (facing increased demands for irrigation), energy (decreased hydropower potential and lower availability of cooling water), tourism (notably, water tourism), fisheries and water transport. Because of the importance of these sectors for national and individual well-being, the effects of climate change on water resources have major direct and indirect implications. Serious risks also exist for biodiversity [1]. The EU water framework directive recommends the use of the river basin approach to water management. The Neman river basin, covering the territory of the Republic of Belarus, Republic of Lithuania and Kaliningrad Region (Oblast) of Russian Federation, has high levels of water usage, owing to abundance of industrial and industrial facilities, and oil and high density of oil and petroleum pipelines. Evaluation and forecasting of the water resources in the transnational basin of the Neman River and water quality have become of relevance recently in the context of climate change. As a part of the UNECE pilot projects program on adaptation to climate change in transboundary water basins, a pilot project is under way in the Neman river basin. This baseline study report on the Neman river basin presents essential data for the study of the water resource dynamic of the Neman river in the context of adaptation to climate change and water resources management. This includes an overview of the Neman river basin, a literature review of climate change in the three countries concerned, a presentation of data from the network of observation posts, and a range of other institutional, legal and scientific aspects of water management of the Neman river basin in the context of assessment, forecasting and adaptation to climate change. 3

4 1 Neman River Basin Overview 1.1 Background The Neman River Basin is located between and N and E. Total river length is 937 km, and the river basin area is км 2. Based on the size of the river basin, the Neman is classified as a major river. The river basin covers the territories of Belarus, Lithuania, Russia (Kaliningrad Oblast), Poland and Latvia (Figure 1.1, Tables 1.1, 1.2). Because the Latvian and Polish sections of the Neman river basin have only the upper reaches of some tributaries, they are beyond the scope of this Report. Figure1.1 Map of the Neman river basin 4

5 Table1.1 - Countries in the Neman river basin area Total basin area, Km Country Drainage basin area, км² % of total basin area Lithuania ,7 Belarus ,4 Russian Federation ,2 Poland ,6 Latvia 98 0,1 The river Neman begins at the juncture of the Rivers Ussa and Losha and flows into the Curonian Lagoon of the Baltic Sea. Total water surface area is км 2. The source is located near the settlement of Verkh-Nemanets. The next 25 kilometers of the watercourse the Nemanets - is a narrow canal. The stream widens at the merger with its two tributaries Losha (42 Km) and Ussa (115 km), and is referred to as the River Neman from this point [2]. In terms of length and catchment area size, Neman's largest tributaries include, from source to estuary, Berezina, Schara, Kotra, Svisloch, Merkis, Vilija (Neris), Nevezis, Dubisa, Sesute, Jura and Minija [3,4]. The Neman's catchment area has a pear-like shape, typical of large and medium-sized river basins. The Neman River Basin has an extended shape towards the Southeast. [3,4]. Morphometric parameters (depth, width, profile, flow velocity, etc) vary in different districts of the river depending on the intensity of the tributary network. Depth ranges from 1 m in the upstream section to 3 m in the lower reaches. On average, river bed depth increases by 2 mm per each kilometer [3,4]. Conventionally, the River Neman is divided into three districts upstream (from source to the mouth of the River Kotra, midstream (from the River Kotra to the River Vilija/Neris), and downstream (from the merger with the River Neris). River width varies from m in the upstream to metres in the midstream, and reaches a maximum of 500 metres in the downstream. Average riverbed slope is 0.16 о / оо in the upstream district, 0.23 о / оо in the midstream district, and 0.10 о / оо in the downstream district. The river Neman is a meandering river. Mean meander ratio is 1.76, ranging from 1.86 in the upstream to 2.26 in the midstream, and 1.21 in the downstream section. A river is ranked as highly meandering if its meander ratio exceeds 1.60 * Table 1.2 Neman river basin geographic and administrative data Country Distance from estuary, Km (maximum minimum) Basin area, км 2 Altitude above sea level, m (maximum minimum) Belarus , Belarus-Lithuania border Lithuania , Lithuania-Russia border , Lithuania or Russia , Main characteristics of the Neman river basin by country are shown in Table 1.2. * Krenkel P. Novotny Vl.,

6 Table 1.2 The Neman River Basin basic data Districts of the Neman River Basin 3. Downstream (from confluence with the River Vilija/Neris to the delta)* 1. Upstream (to confluence with the River Kotra) 2. Midstream (from the River Kotra to the River Vilija/Neris) 534, North ,0 West Distance to estuary and direction of the water flow (maxmin) West Elevation above sea level, m (maxmin) 179,0-96,5 96,5-21,1 21,1-0,0 Change in elevation, m Subbasin area, km2 Mean annual unit discharge, l/s/km2 Mean annual water discharge, m3/s Number of tributaries flowing into the River Neman Mean stream gradient, о / оо 82,5 32,983 6,0 197,9 27 0,88-0,11 Average slope:0,20 75,4 38,272 6,0 470,3 11 0,15-0,12 Average slope:0,23 21,1 24,914 6,6-6,9 616,0 (Giliya / Matrosovka Arm: 48.1km to estuary * 19 0,12-0,03 Average slope^ 0,10 Mean width, м Mean depth, м Mean hydrographical network density, Km/км ,5-4, Km/км 2 80 to Up to 500 1,0 3,5 (over 20m in Kaunas Reservoir ) Km/км 2 1,1-5, Km/км 2 Total/Mean 937,4км 179,0-0,0 179, ,0-6,9 616,0 57 0, Km/км 2 * Mainstream flow in the Neman River Delta is distributed as follows: Gilija/Matrosovka %, Rusne 84-71%, including Severnaya/Skirvite 63%, and Atmata, 37%). 6

7 The upstream district of the Neman River extends for 400 km from source to confluence with the River Kotra (534.7 km to estuary). Total catchment area (including the River Kotra Basin) is 32,983 km 2. In this portion, the River Neman is joined by 27 relatively large tributaries. The upstream district of the river basin is located entirely within Belarus, in the territories of Minsk, Brest and Grodno Oblasts. The length of the midstream district, from the mouth of the River Kotra in Grodno Oblast, Belarus (534.7 km to estuary) to confluence with the River Vilija/Neris within the city limits of Kaunas, Lithuania (207.7 Km to estuary), is 300 km. In this section, the Neman is joined by 11 relatively large tributaries. Midstream catchment area is 38,272 км 2. Kaunas hydropower station was built in at 223 km to estuary, and the Kaunas reservoir was created in the section between the cities of Kaunas and Prenai, Lithuania ( km to estuary). The downstream district, 200 km in length, begins at the confluence with the River Vilija/Neris (207.7 Km to estuary) and ends in a wide delta. At this section, the river is joined by 19 significant tributaries. Total catchment area is 24,914 km 2. From a hydrological perspective, the delta area is divided into the smaller and larger delta. The larger delta, 43 km in length, starts at 48.1 km to estuary at the arm of the River Matrosovka/Gilija. The smaller delta boundary is formed by the Skirvite/Severnaya and Atmata Arms. The Atmata arm constitutes the Northern boundary of the Neman River delta. The length of the smaller delta is 13,2 km. Lithuania s Rusne Island is surrounded by the two arms. The Delta has a large number of canals and polders. 1.2 Geology and relief The hydrographical network of the Neman river basin was formed in the late quaternary period. The upstream section of the basin is the oldest, formed before the most recent glacial period, while the midstream and downstream portions were formed after the glacial period. The basin s watershed coincides with the boundaries of the Baltic Sea Lowlands and Zemaitijos Plateau, and extends into the Mid-Lithuanian Plain. Landscape and relief formation date back to the glacial period. The uneven, and occasionally rolling or ridged terrain was formed during the second glacial age, mainly as a result of the processes accompanying the glacier s retreat. The central portion of the basin is crossed from the Southwest to the Northeast by the Baltic boulder train. To the Southeast of the boulder train is the Belarusian Plateau. The Vilija River Valley constitutes the southern boundary of the plateau, with the moraine ridge of the Oshmyany Plateau extending further to the South. On the left bank of the river, the basin s boundary is constituted by the Novogrudok and Volkovyssk Plateaus and the Awgustow trough. Elevations of this part of the basin range from m to m in the river valleys. In the lower reaches of the river Northwest of the Baltic moraine ridge, elevation drops rapidly towards the coastline. This section of the Neman river basin is mostly flat, with occasional rolling hills. Elevations range from 50 to 80 m, falling to m in the river valleys. Terrain elevation drops further towards the Baltic sea coast, to several metres above sea level in the delta trough. [2] 7

8 1.3 Soils The soils in the Neman River Вasin are mostly moraine loam and sandy clay, sometimes with boggy peat deposits. Sandy clay soils are the most common in the Northwest, occupying most of the catchment area of the Rivers Minija, Jura, Dubisa, Nevezys, and the southern section of the Baltic Moraine Ridge up to the River Vilija valley. Sand and sandy clay soils occupy a large area in the upper reaches of the Neman, in the Jura hollow, East of downstream Dubisa, in the lower reaches of the Vilija, between the Jesia and Neman rivers south of Kaunas, and part of the Minija River basin. The Awgustow Trough has mostly sandy and marshy soils, and the Lida Plain up until Grodno has sandy clay and sandy soils. Pentlands with peat layer thickness of 2 3 m are widespread in the Naliboki forest and the catchment area of Lake Vygonischanckoye. Loess-like loam soils occur in the Srevech and Usha River basins, while sand and silt deposits cover the entire delta hollow of the Neman [2]. 1.4 Hydrological characteristics Water resource formation The bulk of the basin s water resources are formed in the territories of three countries Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia (Table 1.4). An insignificant proportion of the runoff (0.3%) comes from the tributaries originating in Poland and Latvia. In medium-dryness years, Belarus contributes 43.5% of the Neman River runoff, Lithuania 50.0 %, and Russia, 6,2 % [15, 16]. Table 1.4 Annual water resource formation in the Neman river basin, km 3 Country River basin area Incoming Annual Total % of country s (Obnuastream An- Down- Source runoff, incountry, runoff, annual км 2 countries км 3 countries last s) total runoff, land area км 3 км 3 Belarus n/a 9.30 Lithuania Belarus Lithuania Poland Russia Latvia Russia (Kaliningrad Oblast) Lithuania 1.31 Baltic Sea

9 The hydrographical network is fairly well developed, with a mean density of 0,4 Km/км 2. The basin is a region well supplied with water. Mean annual unit discharge is 6 l/s*km 2. Mean annual water unit discharge from 14.4 м 3 /s at the confluence of the Rivers Usha and Losha to 616 m 3 /s in the delta *. Mean annual unit discharge low rate in the Neman does not reach 6.6 l/(s-kм 2 ) until its confluence with the Vilija, whereupon it increases gradually further downstream. Variations in mean annual water discharges are similar in different sections of the water stream. The water discharges does not remain constant over years, with variations depending on the climatic patterns of a given year. Geographic distribution of the runoff is complex, and is greatly influenced by the relief. The highest runoff are recorded in the Northwestern section of the basin. Water feeding is mainly by snow melt (33-40%), rain (25-23%) and ground water (10-40%). Most of the river flow is formed as a result of land runoff. Snow melt that not absorbed into the ground through the frozen soil contributes 40% of this runoff Hydrological observation network The range of the available hydrological data depends on the characteristics of the hydrological regime observation points in the river basin, including the location of the sites monitoring water levels and water discharges, and the measurement periods. The structure of the hydrographical network and the network of observation points in the Neman River Basin are presented in Figure 1.2. Belarus operates 27 hydrological observation points located at 20 sites (including 17 watercourses and 3 reservoirs), listed in the National Register of the National System of Environmental Monitoring of the Republic of Belarus (Table 1.5). Water levels and water discharges are measured on the water courses and water levels on reservoirs. Lithuania has 45 hydrological posts (Table 1.6). All hydrological observation stations are automatizated from 2011 year. Kaliningrad Oblast has 3 hydrological posts (Table 1.7), including one (Matrosovka arm) measuring water discharges and the remaining two measuring the water levels only. * Darbutas A., Rimkus Z.,

10 Figure1.2 Hydrographical network and hydrological observation points in the Neman river basin 10

11 п/п Table 1.5 List of active hydrological observation points in the Neman River Basin, Belarus (watercourses) Name of the water body Location Distance from the mouth, Km Catchment area, км 2 Year observations started 1 Neman Stolbtsy Neman Belitsa Neman Mosty Neman Grodno Valovka River Podberezhye Olshanka River Bogdanovo Isloch River Borovikovshina Gavya River Lubiniata Schara River Slonim Schara River Schara Ross River Studenets Svisloch River Sukhaya Dolina Kotra River Sugar Plant Vilija River Steshytsy Vilija River Vileika Vilija River Mikhalishki Naroch River Cheremshitsy Naroch River Naroch Uslyanka River Uzla Stream, no name Naroch (urban-type , settlement) 21 Stream, no name Kupa , Stream, no name Antonisberg 0.4 5, Skema Nikoltsy Oshmyanka River Bolshiye Yatsiny

12 Table List of active hydrological observation points in the Neman River Basin, Lithuania River Station 1 Akmena Paakmenis 2 Akmena-Dan Kretinga 3 Dubysa Lyduv nai 4 Jūra Taurag 5 Kauno marios Birštonas 6 Kauno marios Darsūniškis 7 Kauno marios Kauno HE 8 Klaip dos kanalas Lankupiai 9 Kražant Pluskiai 10 Merkys Puvočiai 11 Minija Kartena 12 Minija Lankupiai 13 Mituva Žindaičiai 14 Nemunas Druskininkai 15 Nemunas Kaunas 16 Nemunas Nemajūnai 17 Nemunas Panemun 18 Nemunas Smalininkai 19 Nemunas(atš.Rusn ) Šilininkai 20 Nemuno (ats.atma) Rusn 21 Neris Buivydžiai 22 Neris Jonava 23 Neris Vilnius 24 Nev žis Babtai 25 Nev žis K dainiai 26 Nev žis Panev žys 27 Nev žis Traupis 28 Skroblus Dubininkai 29 Str va Semelišk s 30 Šalčia Valkininkai 31 Šešup Kudirkos Naum. 32 Šešup Liubavas 33 Šešuvis Skirgailiai 34 Širvinta Liukonys 35 Šyša Šilut 36 Šušv Josvainiai 37 Šušv Šiaul nai 38 Šventoji Anykščiai 39 Šventoji Ukmerg 40 Ūla-pelesa Zervynos 41 Upita Eidukai 42 Verkn Verbylišk s 43 Vilnia Vilnius 44 Žeimena Pabrad 45 Žuvintas Rezervatas 12

13 Table List of active hydrological observation points in the Neman River Basin, Kaliningrad Oblast, Russian Federation п/п Name of the water body Location Distance from the mouth, Km Catchment area, км 2 Year observations started 1 Neman Sovetsk Neman, Matrosovka arm Mostovoye Sesupe Dolgoye Water flow characteristics By its pattern of annual stream flow, Neman ranks among rivers with significant spring flood and low flow rate throughout the rest of the year. Based on the analysis of the annual variations of the water flow patterns in the Neman river bases, the following annual phases can be identified: Spring tide (melt water constitutes the bulk of the runoff); Summer season (river feeding partly by rain, and partly by groundwater); Autumn period (reduced evaporation following a drop in the air temperature, resulting in slightly increased flow rate); Winter season (river feeding mainly by groundwater). Spring tide is particularly noteworthy. Spring runoff represents 41,4-46,2% of annual runoff, and summer runoff only 15,4-17,9 %. Autumn and winter runoff volumes are roughly similar, (11-37 and % of annual runoff, respectively). Maximum water discharges during the spring tide period is dependent mainly on the amount of snow accumulated over the winter period, and on the intensity of snow melting. Neman s catchment area is relatively small, and the change in the air temperature occurs almost simultaneously. In most cases, the onset is rapid, and high water levels are reached fairly quickly. Winter thaws are generally short, and do not affect the entire river basin simultaneously. Snow accumulation reduces during the winter tide, and spring tide is insignificant after a warm winter. The largest floods normally occur between late March and early April. Floods in the summer and autumn normally occur after long spells of rainy weather in the summer and winter months. The magnitude of this flooding rarely exceeds the spring tide. Maximum runoff volumes vary greatly from year to year, but simultaneously throughout the length of the river. Minimum runoff volume is mainly determined by groundwater flow. Minimum water flow volumes are distributed relatively evenly in time and magnitude along throughout the length of the river. In the low season, water discharges are determined by climatic factors and local physicgeographic characteristics. The latter include lake density, quantity of bogs, and predominant soil characteristics. Large forests and sandy soils are conducive to more regular annual distribution of the runoff, decreasing the share of the flood season and increasing the proportion of tidal season runoff and increasing the share of the runoff in the mid-season. Seasonal runoff variations can be high due to low density of lakes and wetlands in the basin area. Main runoff characteristics include water discharges for the given probabilities, including annual runoff at 50, 75, and 95% of the probabilities, spring tide runoff at 50, 25, 10, 5, and 1% of the probabilities; summer/autumn and winter runoff at 50, 75, 95, and 97% of the probabilities, and rain floods at the river cross section near the national borders and along the main tributaries of the Neman, at 25, 10 and 5% of the probabilities. 13

14 Data for the Belarusian and Lithuanian portions of the Neman River Basin are presented in Table 1.8 [13]. Russia s Kaliningrad Oblast has no hydrometric observation points that monitor water discharges. Blank cells in the table indicate that the duration of observations is insufficient to calculate water flow volumes for the given probabilities of exceeding the upper limit. Table 1.8 Water discharges (m 3 /s) in the major streams of the Neman river basin for the given probabilities of exceeding the upper limit by hydrological observation point River Neman Vilija P, % Belarus Stolbtsy Mosty Grodno Vileika Mikhalishki Annual runoff, m 3 /s 50% 17, ,6 62,7 75% 15, , % 13, ,9 45,7 Spring tide runoff, m 3 /s 1% % % % % 89, Summer/autumn season runoff, m 3 /s 50% ,7 9,31 31,4 75% - 66,2 83,7 6,66 29,4 95% - 59,8 75,8 3,38 26,9 97% - 58,3 74,1 2,75 26,2 Winter season runoff, m 3 /s 50% - 54,3 68,2 10,5 27,9 75% - 46,2 59,8 9,22 23,3 95% - 37,5 49,7 7,84 18,2 97% - 35,7 47,6 7,55 17,3 Lithuania Druskininkai Nemajūnai Smalininkai Vilnius Jonava Annual runoff, m 3 /s 50% % , % ,0 122 Spring tide runoff, m 3 /s 1% % % Summer/autumn season runoff, m 3 /s 50% ,4 81,1 75% 91, ,9 71,5 95% 75,2 98, ,6 60,1 97% 71,3 93, ,0 57,8 Winter season runoff, m 3 /s 50% 88, ,4 80,3 75% 67,9 90, ,5 63,6 95% 49,2 71, ,8 45,8 97% 45,7 68, ,5 42,3 14

15 1.4.4 Ice conditions In the river Neman, winter begins after mid-november, with the start of ground ice formation and the ice drift. Most of the ice on the water surface is floating pieces of the ground ice. Ice flows. Ice drift starts almost simultaneously along the length of the river, although the onset of ice drift can be earlier in the upper reaches of the river. Ice drift does not always result in complete freeze-up, and may sometimes lead to only a short-term stoppage in the flow of ice in the upper reaches of the river. Freeze-up dates vary along the river, but the mean is normally around mid-december. Freeze-up starts in the upper reaches of the river, and 1 2 days later in the lower reaches. In the midstream, freeze-up is delayed by days because of the rapid current. Freeze-up is not normally accompanied by major ice jams and sharp rises in water levels, similar to those observed during winter thaws or break-up of ice. During mild winters, the onset of freeze-up is sometimes delayed until January or February. Disruptions in the ice cover are not infrequent, mainly during thaws. These are accompanied by large and lasting rises in the water level, exceeding those observed in the summer and autumn months. In addition to the winter temperature conditions, the thickness and stability of the ice cover depends on current speed, which varies along the length of the river and is determined mainly by the river slope. For this reason, the ice cover is thicker and more stable in the upper and lower reaches of the Neman, where the river slope is small, and the current is much slower than in the midstream. In most observation points, ice thickness varies from cm in a mild winter to cm in a more severe winter. In some parts of the Neman, it is not uncommon to encounter long stretches of thick sponge-like ice underneath a layer of crystalline ice. The thickness of the spongelike ice layer can sometimes reach up to 3 m. Ice holes typically occur in a mild winter, and tend to be larger and more numerous in the midstream section of the river than in its lower reaches. Due to differences in the nature of the current and in the climatic conditions for ice formation, freeze-up duration is longest in the upstream and shortest in the midstream section. The freeze-up period lasts days at Stolbtsy, days at Belitsa and days at Grodno. The breakup of the Neman typically occurs after mid-march, and is earliest in the midstream (Grodno being a notable example) Overview of extreme weather conditions Extreme weather conditions include droughts, catastrophic flooding, and dangerous ice conditions. Due to the climatic conditions of the Neman River, the most relevant weather-related threats are droughts, spring floods, and rain-induced tides that lead to flooding. Over the entire period of observation, the most severe floods in the Neman river basin occurred in 1886, 1931, and In the most catastrophic of these floods, in 1958, maximum water level was exceeded by 394 cm at the hydrological observation point near Mosty [14]. At present, water discharge is being regulated by the Hydropower plant dam in Kaunas, Lithuania. Construction is under way of a hydropower plant upstream of Grodno, and plans are in place to build a hydropower dam below Grodno. These large energy sector facilities can mitigate the effects of floods and flash runoff by impoundment of the water flow. However, water flow management does not entirely eliminate the risk of floods, which still continue to persist, even after the construction of the Kaunas dam. The frequency of flooding has increased in the last decades, due to unstable snow cover in the Neman delta. Although these floods are much less extreme, they still 15

16 result in economic damage. In the tributaries of the Neman, particularly in Lithuania s Zemaitijos Plateau, rain-induced flooding has been observed more frequently in the warm season, as a result of more frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation Droughts in abnormally dry seasons are more an issue for the upper reaches of the river in Belarus, but are also common in Lithuania. An abnormally dry season is defined as less than 5 mm of precipitation in a hot spell of 30 or more days. On average, four out of ten years were abnormally dry prior to 1990, affecting up to 25% of the Neman basin area. In the 1990 the frequency of abnormally dry years increased to one in two. The number of droughts occurring from April to May has also increased relative to the previous decades. An increase in the frequency of droughts in the warm season has increased in the Neman river basin since the 1990s, affecting larger areas, and growing in length and intensity. Ground freezing, defined as the drop in surface air and soil temperature below 0 о С in a period of active plant growth against the background of above-zero temperatures. In , ground freezing in May-September has become more common relative to the previous two decades throughout the territory of Belarus including Neman River basin. In Lithuania (including Neman River basin), summer droughts are the longest, and are characterized by high temperature, low air humidity and high vaporisation. Dry spells of 5 9 days are the most common in May (9 12 times in ten years), and less frequent in other months (P= 50 80%). The probability of dry spells of days is 2 3 times lower. In Lithuania, dry weather conditions and drought are the most common in the South and Southeast, where sandy soils prevail. Here, arid conditions are observed, on average, once in three years, while in the rest of Lithuania the frequency is once in every 5 6 years. 1.5 Climatic conditions Climate overview The climate in the Neman river basin is moderately continental. Humid Atlantic air masses prevail most of the year. Air masses from the continent add continental features to the climate, particularly in the East and Southeast. The climate in the river basin area is transitional from maritime to continental. Mean annual temperature is +6 o C, including -4.9 o C in January and +17 o C in July. Westerly and South-easterly winds prevail. Mean annual precipitation is mm, except in the Vilija/Neris basin, where it exceeds mm *. 75% of annual precipitation is rain, 65% is vaporised, and around 32% are transformed into land runoff. Mean annual wind speed is м/с. The large basin area in Belarus causes higher monthly temperature variations, ranging from 20 С to 32 С from West to East. Mean temperature rises from the Northeast to the Southwest during the year and to the Southeast during the warm season. Mean annual air temperature is +5 С in the Northeast, +5,5 С in the North and + 6,5 С in the South and Southeast. On average, the temperature increases by 0.5 С per each 200 km Southward. In the warm period, astronomic and sun radiation factors determine the sublateral pattern of the air temperature. Mean air temperature in July ranges from 17,5 С in the North to 18,5 С in the South of the basin area, and mean January temperature from -6,5 in the Northeast to -5 С in the Southwest. In the cold season, the patterns of atmospheric air circulation determine the submeridional direction of the isotherms. On average, the temperature drops by 0,5 С per every 100 km Eastward. * Литовский статистический ежегодник,

17 The Neman river basis is located in a sufficiently wetted zone. High air humidity, extensive cloud cover and a favourable temperature pattern are conducive to large precipitation. Mean annual precipitation is mm, reaching 700 mm and above in the Novogrudok and Slonim plateaus. Precipitation is unevenly distributed throughout the year, with 70% falling out in the warm season (including over 1/3 in July August). Precipitation is the lowest in February March, the period of low cyclonic activity. Most of the precipitation is rain, and only 10 15% is snow. Soil surface vaporization ranges from 450 mm in the Northwest to 600 mm in the Southwest. Water surface vaporization is mm. Relative humidity is generally high, at 84 90% in the Spring and 66 78% in the summer. Humidity factor ranges from 0,9 1,0 in the North to 0,8-0,9 in the South, with the exception of the Novogrudok plateau, where the ratio is 1,0-1,2. In the Lithuanian section of the basin area, the climate changes from maritime within km of the coastline to continental in the East. Mean annual air temperature is 6-7 С, ranging from a high of 7,4-7,6 С on the Baltic coast to 5,8 С in the East of the basin area. Mean temperature in January is -1,4 and -5,2 С, respectively. In July, mean temperature is highest at the Baltic Coast (17,6 С) and lowest (16,4 С) in Zemaitijos Plateau. Mean annual precipitation is 660 mm, ranging from less than 570 mm in the North to over 900 mm in Zemaitijos Plateau. Two-thirds of the precipitation occur in the warm period from April to October. Climatic conditions in Kaliningrad Oblast are characterized by very mild winters, often without permanent snow cover, warm and rainy autumns, and high humidity throughout the year. For the greater part of the year (173 days), the area is under the influence of cyclonic activity, while high pressure areas are present for only 133 days. The area is affected by 175 atmospheric fronts in a year, leading to cloudy or overcast weather, and moderate to strong winds. Overcast weather conditions are frequent throughout the year. Mean cloud intensity exceeds 5,5 points. High air humidity and cloudiness have a marked effect on the light pattern. Aboveaverage numbers of overcast or cloudy days are recorded at the Baltic Sea Cost, and in the Sovetsk Chernyakhvsk-Zheleznodorozny strip, explained by patterns of convection activity during the warm season. Clear weather is relatively rare only days in a year. Mean annual temperature is around +8 С, including +17 С in July, and -3 С in January. Rainy weather is recorded 185 days, and snow 55 days in a year. Prevailing wind direction is West, mean annual wind speed is up to 4 m/s. In the course of the project, climate forecasts will be developed for the entire Neman river basin. 17

18 1.5.2 Overview of the network of meteorological observation posts The metrological observation network in the Neman basin area is comprised of 28 meteorological stations, including 13 in Belarus, 13 in Lithuania, and 2 in Kaliningrad Oblast. The list of meteorological stations and general meteorological data are presented in Tables 1.9, The map of the meteorological stations network is shown in Figure 1.3. Data on Lithuania presented in Figure 1.3 and Table 1.10 refer only to meteorological stations. Some meteorological observations are also being conducted at five climatic stations (former meteorological posts) and 20 hydrological stations. Figure 1.3 Map of the meteorological observations network in the Neman river basin 18

19 Table 1.9 List of meteorological observation points in the Neman River Basin and general climatic data on the Belarusian section of the basin area Precipitation during the Precipitation during the Beginning of observation, year Location п/п warm season, mm cold season, mm 1 Baranovichi Grodno Volkovyssk Lida Novogrudok Oshmyany Schuchin Vileika Volozhin Stolbtsy Naroch Ivatsevichi Lyntupy Table1.10 List of meteorological stations in the Lithuanian section of the Neman River Basin п/п Weather station 1 Dotnuva 2 Dūkštas 3 Kaunas 4 Kybartai 5 Laukuva 6 Lazdijai 7 Panev žys 8 Raseiniai 9 Ukmerg 10 Utena 11 Var na 12 Vilnius 13 Šilut * Two meteorological stations are operating in the Russian section of the Neman river basin in Kaliningrad Oblast, located near the cities of Nesterov and Sovetsk (Table 1.11). Table 1.11 List of meteorological stations in Kaliningrad Oblast, Russian Federation Weather Code Meteorological station Kaliningrad Sovetsk * Dūkštas Meteorological station is at boundary between Neman river basin and Dauguva river basin, so Dūkštas station can belong to both basins. 19

20 1.6. Water use characteristics in the Neman River Basin Population Belarus As of 1 January 2009, the Belarusian section of the Neman River Basin was inhabited by 2242,6 thousand residents, including 1439,0 thousand (64%) in cities and 807,1 thousand (36%) in rural settlements. Below is the population of the largest cities in the Neman river basin: Grodno (Grodno Oblast), 338,000; Baranovichi (Brest Oblast), over 169,000; Molodechno (Minsk Oblast), around 140,000; Lida (Grodno Oblast), around 107,000; Volkovyssk (Grodno Oblast), around ; Slonim (Grodno Oblast), around 52,000. The Neman basin area has a range of other cities (Novogrudok, Skidel, Nesvizh, Stolbtsy, Vileika, Schuhin, etc.), with relatively small populations. Lithuania The Lithuanian section of the Neman River Basin is inhabited by thousand residents, including 1897,56 thousand (70%) in cities, and 813,24 thousand (30%) in rural areas. Some of the largest cities include: Druskininkai, 15,6 thousand; Alytus, 63,7 thousand; Prenai, 10,5 thousand; Jurbarkas 12,5 thousand; Kaunas, 336,8 thousand; Vilnius (Neris River Basin), 543,1 thousand Jonava (Neris River Basin), 33.4 thousand Kaliningrad Oblast Kaliningrad Oblast is an area of high anthropogenic impact on the environment. Population density is 65 inhabitants per km 2, eight times above the Russian average. Some of the largest cities include: Sovetsk, 44.6 thousand; Neman, 12 thousand; Nesterov, 4.6 thousand; Krasnoznamensk, 3.4 thousand. The Russian section of the Neman river basin in Kaliningrad Oblast is inhabited by over 120 thousand residents, including 70 thousand (58,3%) in cities and 50 thousand (41,7%) - in rural areas Industry and agriculture Belarus Main industries in the Neman River Basin include food, chemical and petrochemical, engineering and metal processing, wood, timber and pulp, manufacturing of construction materials, and light industry. Industrial enterprises are concentrated mainly in large and medium-sized cities of Grodno, Minsk and Brest Oblasts, including Grodno, Lida, Volkovyssk, and Baranovichi. 20

21 There are plans to develop hydropower production by using the Neman s water resources. A hydropower plant in under construction upstream of Grodno, and plans have been developed to construct another hydropower facility downstream, at Nemnovo Village. Agricultural land occupies some 53% of the basin area, including arable land, 39 %, and hayfields and pastures, 14%. Of the Vilija river basin area, 45.5% is agricultural land, including 31.4% arable land and 14.1% hayfields and pastures. Lithuania Kaunas and Alytus are the two largest industrial cities standing directly on the River Neman. Two other cities Druskininkai and Birstonas are located in the recreation zone and have little industrial production. The largest industrial centres include Panevezys (standing on the River Neris/Vilija, tributary of the Neman. The largest hydropower facility on the Neman is the Kaunas Hydropower Plant. Main sectors of industrial production include food, wood processing, textile, chemical, metal processing, machine engineering instrument and furniture manufacturing industries. Kaliningrad Oblast Industry is relatively underdeveloped. Main sources of anthropogenic impact are two large pulp and paper plants in the cities of Sovetsk and Neman, and waste water discharges from the sewage systems of Krasnoznamensk, Neman, Sovetsk and Nesterov. Total agricultural land area is 1500 thousand hectares, including around 400,000 hectares of arable land and 150,000 of hayfields and pastures. National Forest Fund lands occupy over 400,000 hectares, and another 170, hectares are utilized by other land user categories, such as cities, villages, hamlets and roads Water use overview Belarus Some 41.5 % of the Neman River runoff is formed within Belarus. A portion of the runoff (around million m 3 annually) is being channeled through the Vileika-Minsk water system into the Dnieper River basin. Some 12.4 % of the basin area is irrigated. Total length of the surface irrigation network is km. The runoff of several streams within the river basin is being regulated by 21 reservoirs with a total surface area of км 2 and the total volume of million км 3. Hydropower resources are being exploited, by operating small-scale hydropower plants. Ten small hydropower plants are in operation in the Neman River Basis. A hydroelectric power plant is under construction upstream of Grodno, and plans are in place to build another hydropower plant below Grodno at Nemnovo Village. Housing and utilities and personal services are the primary water users (71% of all water consumption). Industry and the energy sector consume 20%. Water use structure changed little in However, water consumption has shown a tendency to decline of water use across all sectors and users, except agricultural farms. The share of the agricultural sector in total water use has increased by 0.8% in the last five year period. The share of subterranean water decreased in from 51% to 48% of the total water consumption. Waste water discharge has also declined, including of untreated effluents and effluents treated to standard quality. Nevertheless, the share of effluents treated to standard quality remains high relative to total release (89%). Most waste water (76%) is released by housing and utilities, and only 16% by industry. Total water use in the basin area represents 2.75% of the available water resources, including 2.2% of surface water resources and 3.71% of subterranean water resources. 21

22 Lithuania The Lithuanian section of the Neman basin area forms 47.5% of the Neman River runoff. Almost all of the water usage (96%) is from surface sources. Nearly 99% of the total water usage is for industrial purposes, which is explained by high water usage in hydropower generation (90% of the total). The second largest water user (1.5%) is pond fish farming. A significant proportion of the water (20%) is reused. The share of household water consumption is less than 1%, and agricultural water consumption around 1%. Of the total waste water discharge, over 95% are effluents requiring no treatment, 4% have been treated to the National standard quality, and less than 1% is untreated effluents. Surface water utilization by all sectors of the economy represents 19% of the surface runoff. Around 93% of the water is used for power generation. The Neman basin area has 32 hydropower plants, of which the Kaunas hydropower plant is the largest. Kaliningrad Oblast The Kaliningrad Oblast section of the basin area contributes 6.2% of the Neman river runoff. The basin area occupies 20.7% of the Oblast s territory. Most water utilization (66 % in 2006, 53 % in 2009) is from surface sources, and less than 1% is sea water. Around 40% of the water is used for industrial purposes, while the share of household water use increased from 43% in 2006 to 61 % in Agriculture accounts for 1 % of the total water utilization. The share of subterranean sources in the total water use increased in from 34 to 47%. Waste water discharge has had a tendency to decline. The share of effluents treated to standard quality in the total waste water discharge grew from 13% to 19%. Various sectors of the economy utilize around 5 % of the surface runoff formed within Kaliningrad Oblast and 0.6 % of the total runoff. Subterranean water usage represents around 32 % of the total commercial subterranean water reserves The basin area has two paper and pulp plants, in Neman and Sovetsk, which represent the main sources of water pollution in the area. 22

23 1.7 Quality of surface water Characterization of the surface water quality monitoring network Water quality monitoring in the three countries consists of monitoring surface, ground and drinking water. Complete quality monitoring of surface water that includes hydrological, hydrochemical, hydrobiological, and ecological monitoring is implemented in Belarus and Lithuania only. It is only the hydrological and hydrochemical water monitoring, which is implemented in the basin of the Neman River in the territory of the Kaliningrad Region of the Russian Federation. Hydrochemical monitoring in the three countries includes measuring of practically the same values, however both the measuring frequency and methods applied in Lithuania differ from those in Belarus and Russia. Water body radiological monitoring is organized together with hydrochemical monitoring in Belarus. Belarus Qualitative composition monitoring of the water ecosystems in the Neman River basin concerning the hydrochemical parameters is organized by 62 surface water monitoring stations that are included in the Monitoring Station State Register of the National Environment Monitoring System (NEMS); 5 of those stations are situated in the transboundary river basins of the Neman, the Vilia, the Krynka, the Western Svisloch, and the Black Gancha. In total fixed monitoring covers 22 water courses and 12 reservoirs. Hydrochemical monitoring periodicity of the water courses depends on the integrity of the factors: size and water content of the water body, its economic purpose, conditions and level of the anthropogenic load, etc. (7 or 12 times per annum). Hydrochemical factors of the surface water of the water basins are monitored 4 times per annum: in wintertime, once the spring flood is over, when the summer steady low water level is on, and on the eve of ice formation. Hydrobiological monitoring in the Neman River is organized in the upper and lower river stations in Stolbtsy (Belarus) and Grodno (Belarus), and in the following water courses of the basin: the Lidea River, the Issa River, the Zelvianka River, the Schara River, the Svisloch River, the Kotra River, the Gozhka River, the Vilia River, the Servech River, the Usha River, the Sula River, the Spanovka River, the Oshmianka River, the Berezina River, and the Naroch River, the Antonysberg Brook, the Skema Channel, at the international river stations: the Neman River (the Privalki population place), the Krynka River (the Geniushi population place), the Black Gancha River (the Goriachki population place), the Narev River (the Tikhovolia population place), and at 12 water basins. Hydrobiological monitoring is organized three times per annum at the majority of the water courses; and an all-inclusive one-time bottle sampling is organized at some water courses and basins during the vegetative season. Routine observations are focused on the main communities of the freshwater ecosystems: phytoplankton, phytoperiphyton, zooplankton, and macrozoobenthos. Lithuania Quality monitoring of surface water includes physicochemical and biological parameters. Monitoring can be split in two types. Intensive monitoring is focused on the most affected water bodies. Monitoring frequency is governed by the Monitoring Program depending on the condition of the water body and its controllable parameters; this monitoring can take place as often as monthly or more rarely, e.g. once in a few years. Background monitoring is organized to control general condition of the water bodies. Monitoring frequency is governed by the Monitoring Program, and it is 4 times per annum up to once in a few years. Generally 584 rivers, 276 lakes, and 6 spots in the near shore waters are the sites monitored along the river basin. 23

24 Surface water monitoring in the Neman River basin in the Kaliningrad Region (Russia) comprises 3 water bodies at 5 river stations, including: on the Neman River - in Neman (Belarus) (under to the city), in Sovetsk (Russia) (under and below the city), on the Matrosovka River Arm (the Mostovoye Village population place), on the Sheshupa River (the Dolgoe population place). Water samples are taken every ten days (second category stations), monthly (third category stations), and quarterly (forth category stations). Whenever it is possible, bottle sampling at water courses is arranged to coincide with the main phases of the river regime (summer and winter lowwater seasons, spring and autumn floods) Surface water quality classification To classify surface water quality, Russia and Belarus apply 7 quality degrees, and Lithuania applies 5 quality degrees. Belarus Water quality of the surface water bodies is evaluated by comparing the measured parameters with maximum admissible concentration (MAC) set for the fishery water body basins that have been stipulated for the Neman River basin according to Resolution 43/42 dd. May 08, 2007 issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus and by the Ministry of Public Health of the Republic of Belarus "On some issues regulating control over water quality of the fishery water bodies" with regard to the regional background values of the surface water quality parameters as amended by Resolution 70/139 dd. December 24, 2009 of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus and the Ministry of Public Health of the Republic of Belarus. Belarus also applies an all-inclusive parameter a water pollution index (WPI) - that has 7 water pollution degrees. WPI is calculated as the mean value of the sums of the proportions between the average concentration levels and maximum admissible concentration set for the fishery water according to 6 parameters: dissolved oxygen, biological oxygen demand in 5 days, nitrogen ammonia, nitrite nitrogen, oil-products, and phenols. Regional (oblast) departments of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus issue permits for special water use to water consumers and set allowable concentrations (AC) of polluting agents in waste waters sewed into natural water bodies individually for each water consumer. Lithuania Maximum admissible concentration (MAC) for waste waters supplied to the general sewage collection system (MAC sew ), for waste waters drained into the surface water (MAC DR ), and for surface water bodies (MAC sur ) have been set according to Order 624 "Regulations to minimize pollution of surface waters with hazardous substances" issued by the Ministry of Environment of Lithuania on December 12, Kaliningrad Region (Russia) Water quality of the surface water bodies in the Neman River basin are evaluated by comparing the measured parameters with the maximum admissible concentration (MAC) set for the fishery water bodies according to the Order 20 "On approving normative standards of water quality for fishery water bodies, including normative standards of admissible concentration levels of hazardous substances in the waters of fishery water bodies" issued by the Russian Federal Fishery Service on January 18, When WPI is calculated in Russia, the fixed components are the water dissolved oxygen concentration value and the biological oxygen demand value only. Other components are selected 24