Baseline Study Report Belarus Lithuania Russian Federation (Original language: Russian)

Transcription

1 UNECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) «Management of the Neman River basin with account of adaptation to climate change» Baseline Study Report Belarus Lithuania Russian Federation (Original language: Russian) Vladimir Korneev Central Research Institute for Complex Use of Water Resources (CRICUWR) Minsk, Republic of Belarus With input from Egidijus Rimkus and Audrius Sepikas (Lithuania), Andrey Shalygin (Russian Federation) August 2011

2 Table of Contents Executive Summary Neman River Basin Overview Background Geology and relief Soils Hydrological characteristics Water resource formation Hydrological observation network Water flow characteristics Ice conditions Overview of extreme weather conditions Climatic conditions Climate overview Overview of the network of meteorological observation posts Water use characteristics in the Neman River Basin Population Industry and agriculture Water use overview Quality of surface water Characterization of the surface water quality monitoring network Surface water quality classification General description of surface water quality Characterization of the previously conducted studies on climate change and its implications for water resources in relation to the Neman River basin Characterization of the meteorological and hydrological observation network in the Neman River basin in the context of using the observation data to analyze and forecast climate change and its impact on the water resources of the river basin Total vulnerability assessment of the Neman River basin water resources to climate change Description of the existing legislative and normative base for development of international cooperation in the Neman River basin and for planning in the field of use of water resources in the context of climate change Brief description of the previously implemented projects related to the Neman River basin Conclusions and Suggestions Reference Index

3 Executive Summary As suggested by hydrometeorological observation data and climatic forecasts, water resources may be vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with major implications for the human society and ecosystems. The growing intensity of precipitation and changing precipitation patterns may increase the risks of floods and excessive droughts. The frequency of high precipitation may increase throughout the 21 st century, raising the probability of flooding and accelerating soil erosion. Drought-prone areas are also expected to increase in size. Rising water temperatures and the changing nature of extreme weather conditions, including floods and droughts of increased intensity, will negatively impact water quality and increase water contamination. Major contaminants may include organic carbon deposits, pathogens, pesticides, and salt. This, along with hot water pollution, may have significant implications for ecosystems, human health, and water supply reliability. Sectors that are projected to be the most affected by these negative impacts will include agriculture (facing increased demands for irrigation), energy (decreased hydropower potential and lower availability of cooling water), tourism (notably, water tourism), fisheries and water transport. Because of the importance of these sectors for national and individual well-being, the effects of climate change on water resources have major direct and indirect implications. Serious risks also exist for biodiversity [1]. The EU water framework directive recommends the use of the river basin approach to water management. The Neman river basin, covering the territory of the Republic of Belarus, Republic of Lithuania and Kaliningrad Region (Oblast) of Russian Federation, has high levels of water usage, owing to abundance of industrial and industrial facilities, and oil and high density of oil and petroleum pipelines. Evaluation and forecasting of the water resources in the transnational basin of the Neman River and water quality have become of relevance recently in the context of climate change. As a part of the UNECE pilot projects program on adaptation to climate change in transboundary water basins, a pilot project is under way in the Neman river basin. This baseline study report on the Neman river basin presents essential data for the study of the water resource dynamic of the Neman river in the context of adaptation to climate change and water resources management. This includes an overview of the Neman river basin, a literature review of climate change in the three countries concerned, a presentation of data from the network of observation posts, and a range of other institutional, legal and scientific aspects of water management of the Neman river basin in the context of assessment, forecasting and adaptation to climate change. 3

4 1 Neman River Basin Overview 1.1 Background The Neman River Basin is located between and N and E. Total river length is 937 km, and the river basin area is км 2. Based on the size of the river basin, the Neman is classified as a major river. The river basin covers the territories of Belarus, Lithuania, Russia (Kaliningrad Oblast), Poland and Latvia (Figure 1.1, Tables 1.1, 1.2). Because the Latvian and Polish sections of the Neman river basin have only the upper reaches of some tributaries, they are beyond the scope of this Report. Figure1.1 Map of the Neman river basin 4

5 Table1.1 - Countries in the Neman river basin area Total basin area, Km Country Drainage basin area, км² % of total basin area Lithuania ,7 Belarus ,4 Russian Federation ,2 Poland ,6 Latvia 98 0,1 The river Neman begins at the juncture of the Rivers Ussa and Losha and flows into the Curonian Lagoon of the Baltic Sea. Total water surface area is км 2. The source is located near the settlement of Verkh-Nemanets. The next 25 kilometers of the watercourse the Nemanets - is a narrow canal. The stream widens at the merger with its two tributaries Losha (42 Km) and Ussa (115 km), and is referred to as the River Neman from this point [2]. In terms of length and catchment area size, Neman's largest tributaries include, from source to estuary, Berezina, Schara, Kotra, Svisloch, Merkis, Vilija (Neris), Nevezis, Dubisa, Sesute, Jura and Minija [3,4]. The Neman's catchment area has a pear-like shape, typical of large and medium-sized river basins. The Neman River Basin has an extended shape towards the Southeast. [3,4]. Morphometric parameters (depth, width, profile, flow velocity, etc) vary in different districts of the river depending on the intensity of the tributary network. Depth ranges from 1 m in the upstream section to 3 m in the lower reaches. On average, river bed depth increases by 2 mm per each kilometer [3,4]. Conventionally, the River Neman is divided into three districts upstream (from source to the mouth of the River Kotra, midstream (from the River Kotra to the River Vilija/Neris), and downstream (from the merger with the River Neris). River width varies from m in the upstream to metres in the midstream, and reaches a maximum of 500 metres in the downstream. Average riverbed slope is 0.16 о / оо in the upstream district, 0.23 о / оо in the midstream district, and 0.10 о / оо in the downstream district. The river Neman is a meandering river. Mean meander ratio is 1.76, ranging from 1.86 in the upstream to 2.26 in the midstream, and 1.21 in the downstream section. A river is ranked as highly meandering if its meander ratio exceeds 1.60 * Table 1.2 Neman river basin geographic and administrative data Country Distance from estuary, Km (maximum minimum) Basin area, км 2 Altitude above sea level, m (maximum minimum) Belarus , Belarus-Lithuania border Lithuania , Lithuania-Russia border , Lithuania or Russia , Main characteristics of the Neman river basin by country are shown in Table 1.2. * Krenkel P. Novotny Vl.,

6 Table 1.2 The Neman River Basin basic data Districts of the Neman River Basin 3. Downstream (from confluence with the River Vilija/Neris to the delta)* 1. Upstream (to confluence with the River Kotra) 2. Midstream (from the River Kotra to the River Vilija/Neris) 534, North ,0 West Distance to estuary and direction of the water flow (maxmin) West Elevation above sea level, m (maxmin) 179,0-96,5 96,5-21,1 21,1-0,0 Change in elevation, m Subbasin area, km2 Mean annual unit discharge, l/s/km2 Mean annual water discharge, m3/s Number of tributaries flowing into the River Neman Mean stream gradient, о / оо 82,5 32,983 6,0 197,9 27 0,88-0,11 Average slope:0,20 75,4 38,272 6,0 470,3 11 0,15-0,12 Average slope:0,23 21,1 24,914 6,6-6,9 616,0 (Giliya / Matrosovka Arm: 48.1km to estuary * 19 0,12-0,03 Average slope^ 0,10 Mean width, м Mean depth, м Mean hydrographical network density, Km/км ,5-4, Km/км 2 80 to Up to 500 1,0 3,5 (over 20m in Kaunas Reservoir ) Km/км 2 1,1-5, Km/км 2 Total/Mean 937,4км 179,0-0,0 179, ,0-6,9 616,0 57 0, Km/км 2 * Mainstream flow in the Neman River Delta is distributed as follows: Gilija/Matrosovka %, Rusne 84-71%, including Severnaya/Skirvite 63%, and Atmata, 37%). 6

7 The upstream district of the Neman River extends for 400 km from source to confluence with the River Kotra (534.7 km to estuary). Total catchment area (including the River Kotra Basin) is 32,983 km 2. In this portion, the River Neman is joined by 27 relatively large tributaries. The upstream district of the river basin is located entirely within Belarus, in the territories of Minsk, Brest and Grodno Oblasts. The length of the midstream district, from the mouth of the River Kotra in Grodno Oblast, Belarus (534.7 km to estuary) to confluence with the River Vilija/Neris within the city limits of Kaunas, Lithuania (207.7 Km to estuary), is 300 km. In this section, the Neman is joined by 11 relatively large tributaries. Midstream catchment area is 38,272 км 2. Kaunas hydropower station was built in at 223 km to estuary, and the Kaunas reservoir was created in the section between the cities of Kaunas and Prenai, Lithuania ( km to estuary). The downstream district, 200 km in length, begins at the confluence with the River Vilija/Neris (207.7 Km to estuary) and ends in a wide delta. At this section, the river is joined by 19 significant tributaries. Total catchment area is 24,914 km 2. From a hydrological perspective, the delta area is divided into the smaller and larger delta. The larger delta, 43 km in length, starts at 48.1 km to estuary at the arm of the River Matrosovka/Gilija. The smaller delta boundary is formed by the Skirvite/Severnaya and Atmata Arms. The Atmata arm constitutes the Northern boundary of the Neman River delta. The length of the smaller delta is 13,2 km. Lithuania s Rusne Island is surrounded by the two arms. The Delta has a large number of canals and polders. 1.2 Geology and relief The hydrographical network of the Neman river basin was formed in the late quaternary period. The upstream section of the basin is the oldest, formed before the most recent glacial period, while the midstream and downstream portions were formed after the glacial period. The basin s watershed coincides with the boundaries of the Baltic Sea Lowlands and Zemaitijos Plateau, and extends into the Mid-Lithuanian Plain. Landscape and relief formation date back to the glacial period. The uneven, and occasionally rolling or ridged terrain was formed during the second glacial age, mainly as a result of the processes accompanying the glacier s retreat. The central portion of the basin is crossed from the Southwest to the Northeast by the Baltic boulder train. To the Southeast of the boulder train is the Belarusian Plateau. The Vilija River Valley constitutes the southern boundary of the plateau, with the moraine ridge of the Oshmyany Plateau extending further to the South. On the left bank of the river, the basin s boundary is constituted by the Novogrudok and Volkovyssk Plateaus and the Awgustow trough. Elevations of this part of the basin range from m to m in the river valleys. In the lower reaches of the river Northwest of the Baltic moraine ridge, elevation drops rapidly towards the coastline. This section of the Neman river basin is mostly flat, with occasional rolling hills. Elevations range from 50 to 80 m, falling to m in the river valleys. Terrain elevation drops further towards the Baltic sea coast, to several metres above sea level in the delta trough. [2] 7

8 1.3 Soils The soils in the Neman River Вasin are mostly moraine loam and sandy clay, sometimes with boggy peat deposits. Sandy clay soils are the most common in the Northwest, occupying most of the catchment area of the Rivers Minija, Jura, Dubisa, Nevezys, and the southern section of the Baltic Moraine Ridge up to the River Vilija valley. Sand and sandy clay soils occupy a large area in the upper reaches of the Neman, in the Jura hollow, East of downstream Dubisa, in the lower reaches of the Vilija, between the Jesia and Neman rivers south of Kaunas, and part of the Minija River basin. The Awgustow Trough has mostly sandy and marshy soils, and the Lida Plain up until Grodno has sandy clay and sandy soils. Pentlands with peat layer thickness of 2 3 m are widespread in the Naliboki forest and the catchment area of Lake Vygonischanckoye. Loess-like loam soils occur in the Srevech and Usha River basins, while sand and silt deposits cover the entire delta hollow of the Neman [2]. 1.4 Hydrological characteristics Water resource formation The bulk of the basin s water resources are formed in the territories of three countries Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia (Table 1.4). An insignificant proportion of the runoff (0.3%) comes from the tributaries originating in Poland and Latvia. In medium-dryness years, Belarus contributes 43.5% of the Neman River runoff, Lithuania 50.0 %, and Russia, 6,2 % [15, 16]. Table 1.4 Annual water resource formation in the Neman river basin, km 3 Country River basin area Incoming Annual Total % of country s (Obnuastream An- Down- Source runoff, incountry, runoff, annual км 2 countries км 3 countries last s) total runoff, land area км 3 км 3 Belarus n/a 9.30 Lithuania Belarus Lithuania Poland Russia Latvia Russia (Kaliningrad Oblast) Lithuania 1.31 Baltic Sea

9 The hydrographical network is fairly well developed, with a mean density of 0,4 Km/км 2. The basin is a region well supplied with water. Mean annual unit discharge is 6 l/s*km 2. Mean annual water unit discharge from 14.4 м 3 /s at the confluence of the Rivers Usha and Losha to 616 m 3 /s in the delta *. Mean annual unit discharge low rate in the Neman does not reach 6.6 l/(s-kм 2 ) until its confluence with the Vilija, whereupon it increases gradually further downstream. Variations in mean annual water discharges are similar in different sections of the water stream. The water discharges does not remain constant over years, with variations depending on the climatic patterns of a given year. Geographic distribution of the runoff is complex, and is greatly influenced by the relief. The highest runoff are recorded in the Northwestern section of the basin. Water feeding is mainly by snow melt (33-40%), rain (25-23%) and ground water (10-40%). Most of the river flow is formed as a result of land runoff. Snow melt that not absorbed into the ground through the frozen soil contributes 40% of this runoff Hydrological observation network The range of the available hydrological data depends on the characteristics of the hydrological regime observation points in the river basin, including the location of the sites monitoring water levels and water discharges, and the measurement periods. The structure of the hydrographical network and the network of observation points in the Neman River Basin are presented in Figure 1.2. Belarus operates 27 hydrological observation points located at 20 sites (including 17 watercourses and 3 reservoirs), listed in the National Register of the National System of Environmental Monitoring of the Republic of Belarus (Table 1.5). Water levels and water discharges are measured on the water courses and water levels on reservoirs. Lithuania has 45 hydrological posts (Table 1.6). All hydrological observation stations are automatizated from 2011 year. Kaliningrad Oblast has 3 hydrological posts (Table 1.7), including one (Matrosovka arm) measuring water discharges and the remaining two measuring the water levels only. * Darbutas A., Rimkus Z.,

10 Figure1.2 Hydrographical network and hydrological observation points in the Neman river basin 10

11 п/п Table 1.5 List of active hydrological observation points in the Neman River Basin, Belarus (watercourses) Name of the water body Location Distance from the mouth, Km Catchment area, км 2 Year observations started 1 Neman Stolbtsy Neman Belitsa Neman Mosty Neman Grodno Valovka River Podberezhye Olshanka River Bogdanovo Isloch River Borovikovshina Gavya River Lubiniata Schara River Slonim Schara River Schara Ross River Studenets Svisloch River Sukhaya Dolina Kotra River Sugar Plant Vilija River Steshytsy Vilija River Vileika Vilija River Mikhalishki Naroch River Cheremshitsy Naroch River Naroch Uslyanka River Uzla Stream, no name Naroch (urban-type , settlement) 21 Stream, no name Kupa , Stream, no name Antonisberg 0.4 5, Skema Nikoltsy Oshmyanka River Bolshiye Yatsiny

12 Table List of active hydrological observation points in the Neman River Basin, Lithuania River Station 1 Akmena Paakmenis 2 Akmena-Dan Kretinga 3 Dubysa Lyduv nai 4 Jūra Taurag 5 Kauno marios Birštonas 6 Kauno marios Darsūniškis 7 Kauno marios Kauno HE 8 Klaip dos kanalas Lankupiai 9 Kražant Pluskiai 10 Merkys Puvočiai 11 Minija Kartena 12 Minija Lankupiai 13 Mituva Žindaičiai 14 Nemunas Druskininkai 15 Nemunas Kaunas 16 Nemunas Nemajūnai 17 Nemunas Panemun 18 Nemunas Smalininkai 19 Nemunas(atš.Rusn ) Šilininkai 20 Nemuno (ats.atma) Rusn 21 Neris Buivydžiai 22 Neris Jonava 23 Neris Vilnius 24 Nev žis Babtai 25 Nev žis K dainiai 26 Nev žis Panev žys 27 Nev žis Traupis 28 Skroblus Dubininkai 29 Str va Semelišk s 30 Šalčia Valkininkai 31 Šešup Kudirkos Naum. 32 Šešup Liubavas 33 Šešuvis Skirgailiai 34 Širvinta Liukonys 35 Šyša Šilut 36 Šušv Josvainiai 37 Šušv Šiaul nai 38 Šventoji Anykščiai 39 Šventoji Ukmerg 40 Ūla-pelesa Zervynos 41 Upita Eidukai 42 Verkn Verbylišk s 43 Vilnia Vilnius 44 Žeimena Pabrad 45 Žuvintas Rezervatas 12

13 Table List of active hydrological observation points in the Neman River Basin, Kaliningrad Oblast, Russian Federation п/п Name of the water body Location Distance from the mouth, Km Catchment area, км 2 Year observations started 1 Neman Sovetsk Neman, Matrosovka arm Mostovoye Sesupe Dolgoye Water flow characteristics By its pattern of annual stream flow, Neman ranks among rivers with significant spring flood and low flow rate throughout the rest of the year. Based on the analysis of the annual variations of the water flow patterns in the Neman river bases, the following annual phases can be identified: Spring tide (melt water constitutes the bulk of the runoff); Summer season (river feeding partly by rain, and partly by groundwater); Autumn period (reduced evaporation following a drop in the air temperature, resulting in slightly increased flow rate); Winter season (river feeding mainly by groundwater). Spring tide is particularly noteworthy. Spring runoff represents 41,4-46,2% of annual runoff, and summer runoff only 15,4-17,9 %. Autumn and winter runoff volumes are roughly similar, (11-37 and % of annual runoff, respectively). Maximum water discharges during the spring tide period is dependent mainly on the amount of snow accumulated over the winter period, and on the intensity of snow melting. Neman s catchment area is relatively small, and the change in the air temperature occurs almost simultaneously. In most cases, the onset is rapid, and high water levels are reached fairly quickly. Winter thaws are generally short, and do not affect the entire river basin simultaneously. Snow accumulation reduces during the winter tide, and spring tide is insignificant after a warm winter. The largest floods normally occur between late March and early April. Floods in the summer and autumn normally occur after long spells of rainy weather in the summer and winter months. The magnitude of this flooding rarely exceeds the spring tide. Maximum runoff volumes vary greatly from year to year, but simultaneously throughout the length of the river. Minimum runoff volume is mainly determined by groundwater flow. Minimum water flow volumes are distributed relatively evenly in time and magnitude along throughout the length of the river. In the low season, water discharges are determined by climatic factors and local physicgeographic characteristics. The latter include lake density, quantity of bogs, and predominant soil characteristics. Large forests and sandy soils are conducive to more regular annual distribution of the runoff, decreasing the share of the flood season and increasing the proportion of tidal season runoff and increasing the share of the runoff in the mid-season. Seasonal runoff variations can be high due to low density of lakes and wetlands in the basin area. Main runoff characteristics include water discharges for the given probabilities, including annual runoff at 50, 75, and 95% of the probabilities, spring tide runoff at 50, 25, 10, 5, and 1% of the probabilities; summer/autumn and winter runoff at 50, 75, 95, and 97% of the probabilities, and rain floods at the river cross section near the national borders and along the main tributaries of the Neman, at 25, 10 and 5% of the probabilities. 13

14 Data for the Belarusian and Lithuanian portions of the Neman River Basin are presented in Table 1.8 [13]. Russia s Kaliningrad Oblast has no hydrometric observation points that monitor water discharges. Blank cells in the table indicate that the duration of observations is insufficient to calculate water flow volumes for the given probabilities of exceeding the upper limit. Table 1.8 Water discharges (m 3 /s) in the major streams of the Neman river basin for the given probabilities of exceeding the upper limit by hydrological observation point River Neman Vilija P, % Belarus Stolbtsy Mosty Grodno Vileika Mikhalishki Annual runoff, m 3 /s 50% 17, ,6 62,7 75% 15, , % 13, ,9 45,7 Spring tide runoff, m 3 /s 1% % % % % 89, Summer/autumn season runoff, m 3 /s 50% ,7 9,31 31,4 75% - 66,2 83,7 6,66 29,4 95% - 59,8 75,8 3,38 26,9 97% - 58,3 74,1 2,75 26,2 Winter season runoff, m 3 /s 50% - 54,3 68,2 10,5 27,9 75% - 46,2 59,8 9,22 23,3 95% - 37,5 49,7 7,84 18,2 97% - 35,7 47,6 7,55 17,3 Lithuania Druskininkai Nemajūnai Smalininkai Vilnius Jonava Annual runoff, m 3 /s 50% % , % ,0 122 Spring tide runoff, m 3 /s 1% % % Summer/autumn season runoff, m 3 /s 50% ,4 81,1 75% 91, ,9 71,5 95% 75,2 98, ,6 60,1 97% 71,3 93, ,0 57,8 Winter season runoff, m 3 /s 50% 88, ,4 80,3 75% 67,9 90, ,5 63,6 95% 49,2 71, ,8 45,8 97% 45,7 68, ,5 42,3 14

15 1.4.4 Ice conditions In the river Neman, winter begins after mid-november, with the start of ground ice formation and the ice drift. Most of the ice on the water surface is floating pieces of the ground ice. Ice flows. Ice drift starts almost simultaneously along the length of the river, although the onset of ice drift can be earlier in the upper reaches of the river. Ice drift does not always result in complete freeze-up, and may sometimes lead to only a short-term stoppage in the flow of ice in the upper reaches of the river. Freeze-up dates vary along the river, but the mean is normally around mid-december. Freeze-up starts in the upper reaches of the river, and 1 2 days later in the lower reaches. In the midstream, freeze-up is delayed by days because of the rapid current. Freeze-up is not normally accompanied by major ice jams and sharp rises in water levels, similar to those observed during winter thaws or break-up of ice. During mild winters, the onset of freeze-up is sometimes delayed until January or February. Disruptions in the ice cover are not infrequent, mainly during thaws. These are accompanied by large and lasting rises in the water level, exceeding those observed in the summer and autumn months. In addition to the winter temperature conditions, the thickness and stability of the ice cover depends on current speed, which varies along the length of the river and is determined mainly by the river slope. For this reason, the ice cover is thicker and more stable in the upper and lower reaches of the Neman, where the river slope is small, and the current is much slower than in the midstream. In most observation points, ice thickness varies from cm in a mild winter to cm in a more severe winter. In some parts of the Neman, it is not uncommon to encounter long stretches of thick sponge-like ice underneath a layer of crystalline ice. The thickness of the spongelike ice layer can sometimes reach up to 3 m. Ice holes typically occur in a mild winter, and tend to be larger and more numerous in the midstream section of the river than in its lower reaches. Due to differences in the nature of the current and in the climatic conditions for ice formation, freeze-up duration is longest in the upstream and shortest in the midstream section. The freeze-up period lasts days at Stolbtsy, days at Belitsa and days at Grodno. The breakup of the Neman typically occurs after mid-march, and is earliest in the midstream (Grodno being a notable example) Overview of extreme weather conditions Extreme weather conditions include droughts, catastrophic flooding, and dangerous ice conditions. Due to the climatic conditions of the Neman River, the most relevant weather-related threats are droughts, spring floods, and rain-induced tides that lead to flooding. Over the entire period of observation, the most severe floods in the Neman river basin occurred in 1886, 1931, and In the most catastrophic of these floods, in 1958, maximum water level was exceeded by 394 cm at the hydrological observation point near Mosty [14]. At present, water discharge is being regulated by the Hydropower plant dam in Kaunas, Lithuania. Construction is under way of a hydropower plant upstream of Grodno, and plans are in place to build a hydropower dam below Grodno. These large energy sector facilities can mitigate the effects of floods and flash runoff by impoundment of the water flow. However, water flow management does not entirely eliminate the risk of floods, which still continue to persist, even after the construction of the Kaunas dam. The frequency of flooding has increased in the last decades, due to unstable snow cover in the Neman delta. Although these floods are much less extreme, they still 15

16 result in economic damage. In the tributaries of the Neman, particularly in Lithuania s Zemaitijos Plateau, rain-induced flooding has been observed more frequently in the warm season, as a result of more frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation Droughts in abnormally dry seasons are more an issue for the upper reaches of the river in Belarus, but are also common in Lithuania. An abnormally dry season is defined as less than 5 mm of precipitation in a hot spell of 30 or more days. On average, four out of ten years were abnormally dry prior to 1990, affecting up to 25% of the Neman basin area. In the 1990 the frequency of abnormally dry years increased to one in two. The number of droughts occurring from April to May has also increased relative to the previous decades. An increase in the frequency of droughts in the warm season has increased in the Neman river basin since the 1990s, affecting larger areas, and growing in length and intensity. Ground freezing, defined as the drop in surface air and soil temperature below 0 о С in a period of active plant growth against the background of above-zero temperatures. In , ground freezing in May-September has become more common relative to the previous two decades throughout the territory of Belarus including Neman River basin. In Lithuania (including Neman River basin), summer droughts are the longest, and are characterized by high temperature, low air humidity and high vaporisation. Dry spells of 5 9 days are the most common in May (9 12 times in ten years), and less frequent in other months (P= 50 80%). The probability of dry spells of days is 2 3 times lower. In Lithuania, dry weather conditions and drought are the most common in the South and Southeast, where sandy soils prevail. Here, arid conditions are observed, on average, once in three years, while in the rest of Lithuania the frequency is once in every 5 6 years. 1.5 Climatic conditions Climate overview The climate in the Neman river basin is moderately continental. Humid Atlantic air masses prevail most of the year. Air masses from the continent add continental features to the climate, particularly in the East and Southeast. The climate in the river basin area is transitional from maritime to continental. Mean annual temperature is +6 o C, including -4.9 o C in January and +17 o C in July. Westerly and South-easterly winds prevail. Mean annual precipitation is mm, except in the Vilija/Neris basin, where it exceeds mm *. 75% of annual precipitation is rain, 65% is vaporised, and around 32% are transformed into land runoff. Mean annual wind speed is м/с. The large basin area in Belarus causes higher monthly temperature variations, ranging from 20 С to 32 С from West to East. Mean temperature rises from the Northeast to the Southwest during the year and to the Southeast during the warm season. Mean annual air temperature is +5 С in the Northeast, +5,5 С in the North and + 6,5 С in the South and Southeast. On average, the temperature increases by 0.5 С per each 200 km Southward. In the warm period, astronomic and sun radiation factors determine the sublateral pattern of the air temperature. Mean air temperature in July ranges from 17,5 С in the North to 18,5 С in the South of the basin area, and mean January temperature from -6,5 in the Northeast to -5 С in the Southwest. In the cold season, the patterns of atmospheric air circulation determine the submeridional direction of the isotherms. On average, the temperature drops by 0,5 С per every 100 km Eastward. * Литовский статистический ежегодник,

17 The Neman river basis is located in a sufficiently wetted zone. High air humidity, extensive cloud cover and a favourable temperature pattern are conducive to large precipitation. Mean annual precipitation is mm, reaching 700 mm and above in the Novogrudok and Slonim plateaus. Precipitation is unevenly distributed throughout the year, with 70% falling out in the warm season (including over 1/3 in July August). Precipitation is the lowest in February March, the period of low cyclonic activity. Most of the precipitation is rain, and only 10 15% is snow. Soil surface vaporization ranges from 450 mm in the Northwest to 600 mm in the Southwest. Water surface vaporization is mm. Relative humidity is generally high, at 84 90% in the Spring and 66 78% in the summer. Humidity factor ranges from 0,9 1,0 in the North to 0,8-0,9 in the South, with the exception of the Novogrudok plateau, where the ratio is 1,0-1,2. In the Lithuanian section of the basin area, the climate changes from maritime within km of the coastline to continental in the East. Mean annual air temperature is 6-7 С, ranging from a high of 7,4-7,6 С on the Baltic coast to 5,8 С in the East of the basin area. Mean temperature in January is -1,4 and -5,2 С, respectively. In July, mean temperature is highest at the Baltic Coast (17,6 С) and lowest (16,4 С) in Zemaitijos Plateau. Mean annual precipitation is 660 mm, ranging from less than 570 mm in the North to over 900 mm in Zemaitijos Plateau. Two-thirds of the precipitation occur in the warm period from April to October. Climatic conditions in Kaliningrad Oblast are characterized by very mild winters, often without permanent snow cover, warm and rainy autumns, and high humidity throughout the year. For the greater part of the year (173 days), the area is under the influence of cyclonic activity, while high pressure areas are present for only 133 days. The area is affected by 175 atmospheric fronts in a year, leading to cloudy or overcast weather, and moderate to strong winds. Overcast weather conditions are frequent throughout the year. Mean cloud intensity exceeds 5,5 points. High air humidity and cloudiness have a marked effect on the light pattern. Aboveaverage numbers of overcast or cloudy days are recorded at the Baltic Sea Cost, and in the Sovetsk Chernyakhvsk-Zheleznodorozny strip, explained by patterns of convection activity during the warm season. Clear weather is relatively rare only days in a year. Mean annual temperature is around +8 С, including +17 С in July, and -3 С in January. Rainy weather is recorded 185 days, and snow 55 days in a year. Prevailing wind direction is West, mean annual wind speed is up to 4 m/s. In the course of the project, climate forecasts will be developed for the entire Neman river basin. 17

18 1.5.2 Overview of the network of meteorological observation posts The metrological observation network in the Neman basin area is comprised of 28 meteorological stations, including 13 in Belarus, 13 in Lithuania, and 2 in Kaliningrad Oblast. The list of meteorological stations and general meteorological data are presented in Tables 1.9, The map of the meteorological stations network is shown in Figure 1.3. Data on Lithuania presented in Figure 1.3 and Table 1.10 refer only to meteorological stations. Some meteorological observations are also being conducted at five climatic stations (former meteorological posts) and 20 hydrological stations. Figure 1.3 Map of the meteorological observations network in the Neman river basin 18

19 Table 1.9 List of meteorological observation points in the Neman River Basin and general climatic data on the Belarusian section of the basin area Precipitation during the Precipitation during the Beginning of observation, year Location п/п warm season, mm cold season, mm 1 Baranovichi Grodno Volkovyssk Lida Novogrudok Oshmyany Schuchin Vileika Volozhin Stolbtsy Naroch Ivatsevichi Lyntupy Table1.10 List of meteorological stations in the Lithuanian section of the Neman River Basin п/п Weather station 1 Dotnuva 2 Dūkštas 3 Kaunas 4 Kybartai 5 Laukuva 6 Lazdijai 7 Panev žys 8 Raseiniai 9 Ukmerg 10 Utena 11 Var na 12 Vilnius 13 Šilut * Two meteorological stations are operating in the Russian section of the Neman river basin in Kaliningrad Oblast, located near the cities of Nesterov and Sovetsk (Table 1.11). Table 1.11 List of meteorological stations in Kaliningrad Oblast, Russian Federation Weather Code Meteorological station Kaliningrad Sovetsk * Dūkštas Meteorological station is at boundary between Neman river basin and Dauguva river basin, so Dūkštas station can belong to both basins. 19

20 1.6. Water use characteristics in the Neman River Basin Population Belarus As of 1 January 2009, the Belarusian section of the Neman River Basin was inhabited by 2242,6 thousand residents, including 1439,0 thousand (64%) in cities and 807,1 thousand (36%) in rural settlements. Below is the population of the largest cities in the Neman river basin: Grodno (Grodno Oblast), 338,000; Baranovichi (Brest Oblast), over 169,000; Molodechno (Minsk Oblast), around 140,000; Lida (Grodno Oblast), around 107,000; Volkovyssk (Grodno Oblast), around ; Slonim (Grodno Oblast), around 52,000. The Neman basin area has a range of other cities (Novogrudok, Skidel, Nesvizh, Stolbtsy, Vileika, Schuhin, etc.), with relatively small populations. Lithuania The Lithuanian section of the Neman River Basin is inhabited by thousand residents, including 1897,56 thousand (70%) in cities, and 813,24 thousand (30%) in rural areas. Some of the largest cities include: Druskininkai, 15,6 thousand; Alytus, 63,7 thousand; Prenai, 10,5 thousand; Jurbarkas 12,5 thousand; Kaunas, 336,8 thousand; Vilnius (Neris River Basin), 543,1 thousand Jonava (Neris River Basin), 33.4 thousand Kaliningrad Oblast Kaliningrad Oblast is an area of high anthropogenic impact on the environment. Population density is 65 inhabitants per km 2, eight times above the Russian average. Some of the largest cities include: Sovetsk, 44.6 thousand; Neman, 12 thousand; Nesterov, 4.6 thousand; Krasnoznamensk, 3.4 thousand. The Russian section of the Neman river basin in Kaliningrad Oblast is inhabited by over 120 thousand residents, including 70 thousand (58,3%) in cities and 50 thousand (41,7%) - in rural areas Industry and agriculture Belarus Main industries in the Neman River Basin include food, chemical and petrochemical, engineering and metal processing, wood, timber and pulp, manufacturing of construction materials, and light industry. Industrial enterprises are concentrated mainly in large and medium-sized cities of Grodno, Minsk and Brest Oblasts, including Grodno, Lida, Volkovyssk, and Baranovichi. 20

21 There are plans to develop hydropower production by using the Neman s water resources. A hydropower plant in under construction upstream of Grodno, and plans have been developed to construct another hydropower facility downstream, at Nemnovo Village. Agricultural land occupies some 53% of the basin area, including arable land, 39 %, and hayfields and pastures, 14%. Of the Vilija river basin area, 45.5% is agricultural land, including 31.4% arable land and 14.1% hayfields and pastures. Lithuania Kaunas and Alytus are the two largest industrial cities standing directly on the River Neman. Two other cities Druskininkai and Birstonas are located in the recreation zone and have little industrial production. The largest industrial centres include Panevezys (standing on the River Neris/Vilija, tributary of the Neman. The largest hydropower facility on the Neman is the Kaunas Hydropower Plant. Main sectors of industrial production include food, wood processing, textile, chemical, metal processing, machine engineering instrument and furniture manufacturing industries. Kaliningrad Oblast Industry is relatively underdeveloped. Main sources of anthropogenic impact are two large pulp and paper plants in the cities of Sovetsk and Neman, and waste water discharges from the sewage systems of Krasnoznamensk, Neman, Sovetsk and Nesterov. Total agricultural land area is 1500 thousand hectares, including around 400,000 hectares of arable land and 150,000 of hayfields and pastures. National Forest Fund lands occupy over 400,000 hectares, and another 170, hectares are utilized by other land user categories, such as cities, villages, hamlets and roads Water use overview Belarus Some 41.5 % of the Neman River runoff is formed within Belarus. A portion of the runoff (around million m 3 annually) is being channeled through the Vileika-Minsk water system into the Dnieper River basin. Some 12.4 % of the basin area is irrigated. Total length of the surface irrigation network is km. The runoff of several streams within the river basin is being regulated by 21 reservoirs with a total surface area of км 2 and the total volume of million км 3. Hydropower resources are being exploited, by operating small-scale hydropower plants. Ten small hydropower plants are in operation in the Neman River Basis. A hydroelectric power plant is under construction upstream of Grodno, and plans are in place to build another hydropower plant below Grodno at Nemnovo Village. Housing and utilities and personal services are the primary water users (71% of all water consumption). Industry and the energy sector consume 20%. Water use structure changed little in However, water consumption has shown a tendency to decline of water use across all sectors and users, except agricultural farms. The share of the agricultural sector in total water use has increased by 0.8% in the last five year period. The share of subterranean water decreased in from 51% to 48% of the total water consumption. Waste water discharge has also declined, including of untreated effluents and effluents treated to standard quality. Nevertheless, the share of effluents treated to standard quality remains high relative to total release (89%). Most waste water (76%) is released by housing and utilities, and only 16% by industry. Total water use in the basin area represents 2.75% of the available water resources, including 2.2% of surface water resources and 3.71% of subterranean water resources. 21

22 Lithuania The Lithuanian section of the Neman basin area forms 47.5% of the Neman River runoff. Almost all of the water usage (96%) is from surface sources. Nearly 99% of the total water usage is for industrial purposes, which is explained by high water usage in hydropower generation (90% of the total). The second largest water user (1.5%) is pond fish farming. A significant proportion of the water (20%) is reused. The share of household water consumption is less than 1%, and agricultural water consumption around 1%. Of the total waste water discharge, over 95% are effluents requiring no treatment, 4% have been treated to the National standard quality, and less than 1% is untreated effluents. Surface water utilization by all sectors of the economy represents 19% of the surface runoff. Around 93% of the water is used for power generation. The Neman basin area has 32 hydropower plants, of which the Kaunas hydropower plant is the largest. Kaliningrad Oblast The Kaliningrad Oblast section of the basin area contributes 6.2% of the Neman river runoff. The basin area occupies 20.7% of the Oblast s territory. Most water utilization (66 % in 2006, 53 % in 2009) is from surface sources, and less than 1% is sea water. Around 40% of the water is used for industrial purposes, while the share of household water use increased from 43% in 2006 to 61 % in Agriculture accounts for 1 % of the total water utilization. The share of subterranean sources in the total water use increased in from 34 to 47%. Waste water discharge has had a tendency to decline. The share of effluents treated to standard quality in the total waste water discharge grew from 13% to 19%. Various sectors of the economy utilize around 5 % of the surface runoff formed within Kaliningrad Oblast and 0.6 % of the total runoff. Subterranean water usage represents around 32 % of the total commercial subterranean water reserves The basin area has two paper and pulp plants, in Neman and Sovetsk, which represent the main sources of water pollution in the area. 22

23 1.7 Quality of surface water Characterization of the surface water quality monitoring network Water quality monitoring in the three countries consists of monitoring surface, ground and drinking water. Complete quality monitoring of surface water that includes hydrological, hydrochemical, hydrobiological, and ecological monitoring is implemented in Belarus and Lithuania only. It is only the hydrological and hydrochemical water monitoring, which is implemented in the basin of the Neman River in the territory of the Kaliningrad Region of the Russian Federation. Hydrochemical monitoring in the three countries includes measuring of practically the same values, however both the measuring frequency and methods applied in Lithuania differ from those in Belarus and Russia. Water body radiological monitoring is organized together with hydrochemical monitoring in Belarus. Belarus Qualitative composition monitoring of the water ecosystems in the Neman River basin concerning the hydrochemical parameters is organized by 62 surface water monitoring stations that are included in the Monitoring Station State Register of the National Environment Monitoring System (NEMS); 5 of those stations are situated in the transboundary river basins of the Neman, the Vilia, the Krynka, the Western Svisloch, and the Black Gancha. In total fixed monitoring covers 22 water courses and 12 reservoirs. Hydrochemical monitoring periodicity of the water courses depends on the integrity of the factors: size and water content of the water body, its economic purpose, conditions and level of the anthropogenic load, etc. (7 or 12 times per annum). Hydrochemical factors of the surface water of the water basins are monitored 4 times per annum: in wintertime, once the spring flood is over, when the summer steady low water level is on, and on the eve of ice formation. Hydrobiological monitoring in the Neman River is organized in the upper and lower river stations in Stolbtsy (Belarus) and Grodno (Belarus), and in the following water courses of the basin: the Lidea River, the Issa River, the Zelvianka River, the Schara River, the Svisloch River, the Kotra River, the Gozhka River, the Vilia River, the Servech River, the Usha River, the Sula River, the Spanovka River, the Oshmianka River, the Berezina River, and the Naroch River, the Antonysberg Brook, the Skema Channel, at the international river stations: the Neman River (the Privalki population place), the Krynka River (the Geniushi population place), the Black Gancha River (the Goriachki population place), the Narev River (the Tikhovolia population place), and at 12 water basins. Hydrobiological monitoring is organized three times per annum at the majority of the water courses; and an all-inclusive one-time bottle sampling is organized at some water courses and basins during the vegetative season. Routine observations are focused on the main communities of the freshwater ecosystems: phytoplankton, phytoperiphyton, zooplankton, and macrozoobenthos. Lithuania Quality monitoring of surface water includes physicochemical and biological parameters. Monitoring can be split in two types. Intensive monitoring is focused on the most affected water bodies. Monitoring frequency is governed by the Monitoring Program depending on the condition of the water body and its controllable parameters; this monitoring can take place as often as monthly or more rarely, e.g. once in a few years. Background monitoring is organized to control general condition of the water bodies. Monitoring frequency is governed by the Monitoring Program, and it is 4 times per annum up to once in a few years. Generally 584 rivers, 276 lakes, and 6 spots in the near shore waters are the sites monitored along the river basin. 23

24 Surface water monitoring in the Neman River basin in the Kaliningrad Region (Russia) comprises 3 water bodies at 5 river stations, including: on the Neman River - in Neman (Belarus) (under to the city), in Sovetsk (Russia) (under and below the city), on the Matrosovka River Arm (the Mostovoye Village population place), on the Sheshupa River (the Dolgoe population place). Water samples are taken every ten days (second category stations), monthly (third category stations), and quarterly (forth category stations). Whenever it is possible, bottle sampling at water courses is arranged to coincide with the main phases of the river regime (summer and winter lowwater seasons, spring and autumn floods) Surface water quality classification To classify surface water quality, Russia and Belarus apply 7 quality degrees, and Lithuania applies 5 quality degrees. Belarus Water quality of the surface water bodies is evaluated by comparing the measured parameters with maximum admissible concentration (MAC) set for the fishery water body basins that have been stipulated for the Neman River basin according to Resolution 43/42 dd. May 08, 2007 issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus and by the Ministry of Public Health of the Republic of Belarus "On some issues regulating control over water quality of the fishery water bodies" with regard to the regional background values of the surface water quality parameters as amended by Resolution 70/139 dd. December 24, 2009 of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus and the Ministry of Public Health of the Republic of Belarus. Belarus also applies an all-inclusive parameter a water pollution index (WPI) - that has 7 water pollution degrees. WPI is calculated as the mean value of the sums of the proportions between the average concentration levels and maximum admissible concentration set for the fishery water according to 6 parameters: dissolved oxygen, biological oxygen demand in 5 days, nitrogen ammonia, nitrite nitrogen, oil-products, and phenols. Regional (oblast) departments of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus issue permits for special water use to water consumers and set allowable concentrations (AC) of polluting agents in waste waters sewed into natural water bodies individually for each water consumer. Lithuania Maximum admissible concentration (MAC) for waste waters supplied to the general sewage collection system (MAC sew ), for waste waters drained into the surface water (MAC DR ), and for surface water bodies (MAC sur ) have been set according to Order 624 "Regulations to minimize pollution of surface waters with hazardous substances" issued by the Ministry of Environment of Lithuania on December 12, Kaliningrad Region (Russia) Water quality of the surface water bodies in the Neman River basin are evaluated by comparing the measured parameters with the maximum admissible concentration (MAC) set for the fishery water bodies according to the Order 20 "On approving normative standards of water quality for fishery water bodies, including normative standards of admissible concentration levels of hazardous substances in the waters of fishery water bodies" issued by the Russian Federal Fishery Service on January 18, When WPI is calculated in Russia, the fixed components are the water dissolved oxygen concentration value and the biological oxygen demand value only. Other components are selected 24

25 individually. Those are the components, the concentrations of which exceed the MAC values to the maximum extents set for the water bodies of respectively various purposes General description of surface water quality Belarus According to the ratio of the water quality categories, condition of the water bodies in the Neman River basin remain within the limits of the 2 nd -3 rd degree (clean - moderately polluted) [5]. Average annual concentrations levels of chemical compounds dissolved in the water of the basin are generally lower than MAC. It has been registered that nitrogen and phosphorus compounds exceed admissible concentration limits (up to 6 MAC sometimes) at various stretches of the river. Chemical water composition of the Neman River at the international river station close to the Privalki population place is usually characterized by the relatively low content of the priority chemical agents. On the strength of all hydrobiological parameters, the condition of the Neman River ecosystem down to Stolbtsy (Belarus) is steadily estimated as the 2 nd -3 rd degree (clean moderately polluted). Downstream the condition of the river ecosystem gets worse, and nearby Grodno (Belarus) it corresponds to the 3 rd degree (moderately polluted), which is due to industrial and domestic wastewater. Condition of the river ecosystem at the international river station close to the Privalki population place corresponds to the 2 nd -3 rd degree (clean moderately polluted). Lithuania 102 water bodies show a very good ecological condition of their water bodies in the Neman River basin, which is about 17 per cent of all bodies. 135 water bodies (about 23 per cent) are in a good ecological condition. The highest number of the water bodies belongs to the mid-level ecological condition group: 258 water bodies or 44 per cent. 26 water bodies have a poor ecological condition, and 5 water bodies have a very poor ecological condition. Those are 4 per cent and 1 per cent of the total number of the water bodies correspondingly. [6] Kaliningrad Region (Russia) Values of the specific combinatory water pollution index (SCWPI) at the background and control river stations in the Neman River are characterized as 3A (polluted). The Neman is polluted by unstable organic substances; general iron and oil-product pollution levels are exceeded. Some years show exceeded mercury maximum admissible concentration (MAC) [7]. 25

26 2 Characterization of the previously conducted studies on climate change and its implications for water resources in relation to the Neman River basin This section analyses previously conducted studies, of the used models, generated evaluation records and forecasts (scenarios) of climate changes in the countries of the Neman River basin, and general evaluation of their application to the Neman River basin. Belarus Researches to evaluate and forecast climate change are conducted for the territory of Belarus with respect to the obligations of the Republic of Belarus according to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. According to those obligations, the First National Message has applied global climate models (GCM) developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (UK): versions HadCM2 and HadCM3. The first prediction estimates of agricultural climatic conditions of Belarus have been based on implementation of the GFDL (USA) and ССС (Canada) models. O.D. Sirotenko, E.V. Abashina, and V.N. Pavlova from the All-Russian R&D Institution of Agricultural Meteorology Calculation (Obninsk, Russia) calculated the expected agricultural climatic parameters according to the HadCM3 scenario for the territory of Belarus applying the CLIMATE - SOIL - HARVEST simulation system. Due to the system similar calculations were made to build national messages of the Russian Federation regarding climate change problems. According to the Forth National Message in line with the obligations of the Republic of Belarus under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (2006), water resources has been decreasing in the basins of the Neman River since 1988, and runoff has decreased by 4-13 per cent during the timeframe. The analyzed period has been characterized by the changes of the average monthly runoff distribution during the year (winter and spring months primarily), when monthly river discharge has dramatically increased across the entire country by per cent in January-March. An increase of the winter runoff is due to the increase of thaw frequency and due to winter floods. Runoff has dramatically decreased in April and May. The Message contains an overall summary about decrease of the maximum runoff of the Belarusian rivers; at that, the most considerable decrease of the maximum runoff has been registered in the Neman and Berezina Rivers. The Fifth National Message of the Republic of Belarus in line with the obligations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (2009) applies the LEAP model [8]. The "top-down" method has been used to predict emissions for the period until This method comprises all greenhouse gases and all branches of economy that are in the cadastre. The LEAP model was used to forecast emissions for the Power Engineering Industry, and expert evaluation was used for other industries. The conclusion of the Message states: "Climate change will increase runoff volatility and frequency of natural disasters (dry spells, intensive floods)." Climate change studies are also conducted in Belarus within the framework of the TACIS SKPI transboundary cooperation project titled "Support to Kyoto Protocol Implementation in CIS". Within the framework of this project the following models are used: ECHAM5 (the Max Planck Institute's model for atmosphere circulations) and CSIRO Mk3 (model for bioproductivity). The conducted studies allowed making a number of generalizations (conclusions): the number of the days with an extremely warm winter's end has increased; the difference between 1990 and the current climate is +1,2 O C; stable temperature passage of 0 O C will changed its date; rainfall continue to increase in wintertime and decrease in early spring, especially in the South of the country. 26

27 Figures 2.1 and 2.2 show temperature and rainfall change forecast for the Republic of Belarus according to the TACIS SKPI project results; the figures illustrate the given conclusions. A v e ra ge te m p e ra tu re, 0 C Figure 1. Forecast of the monthly mean temperature change (Source: the TACIS SKPI project) January February March April May June July August September October November December M o n th ly p re cip ita tio n, m m January February March April May June July August September October November December Figure 2.2 Forecast of the monthly precipitation change for monthly mean temperatures (Source: the TACIS SKPI project) Generally ground air average temperature will continue growing in the territory of Belarus in the 21st century, and this will happen primarily due to the increasing minimum temperatures. The listed trends as well as many other peculiarities of a changing climate will exercise a significant influence on the living conditions of citizens and on economic activities. The consequences of rapid change of climatic conditions include repetitive growth of dangerous hydrometeorological elements and wide negative weather fluctuations leading to social-economic damage, directly affecting efficiency of such vital industries of economy as agriculture, forestry, energy, transport, construction, housing maintenance and utilities, and the health of people. The specialists of the Republican Hydrometeorological Center (RHMC) got the following results basing on the data analysis. Belarus witnessed the longest warming period in late 20 th and early 21 st century if compared to the entire period of instrumental observations of the air temperature approximately for the last 130 years. That warming is peculiar not only because of its unprecedented duration, but also because of the higher air temperature, which exceeded the climatic normal on the average by

28 ºС in 20 years ( ). Out of those warmest 20 years after the Second World War (i.e. since 1945), 16 years were from the period of Temperature regime has risen in every month practically. Air temperature rise is more substantial in winter and early spring. It is very important to evaluate monthly air temperature and precipitation changes in such industries as agriculture, fuel and energy complex, forestry, etc. There is a growing tendency of frost proof date increase in the territory of Belarus. Ground frosts of varying intensiveness can be still seen yearly in May, and those are the most dangerous especially for warm-weather crops. Autumn ground frosts are not so dangerous because the air temperature rise in spring and summer months determines accelerated ageing of agricultural plants. Temperature rise during the first spring months causes earlier loss of snow cover, and air temperature exceeds 0 ºС earlier, too. On the average, this transition happens days prior to the previously multiyear observed mean temperature values of the analyzed period. Duration of the snow pack season has decreased by days in the Republic of Belarus, and the depth of soil freezing has decreased by 6-10 centimeters. The vegetative season starts ten days earlier. V.F. Loginov, Academician and Doctor of Geographic Science, has made a comprehensive research of climate change and its consequences for the Belarusian economy in a scientific-methodological context [9]. In his works he has provided a comparative analysis of various atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM). According to his data, the HadCM2 model (UK) simulates data of the reference period in the best way and considers an accumulated growth of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The comparative results of the CSIRO Mk2 (Australia) and CGCM1 (Canada) models are a bit worse. The HadCM2 model prognosis data for the period of show an increase of the average annual air temperature by 1 о С, at that the average annual day-time temperature rises by 0.92 о С, and the average annual night-time temperature rises by 1.15 о С. Aggregated temperature increments by more than 0.5 о С and 10 о С are expected to be basically the same and build approximately о ; and as 15 о С are concerned, the aggregated temperature increments are much higher. The existing climate change assessments for the territory of Belarus stay in line with the global warming concept. The last decades have a clear warming trend, especially in winter and spring months (1-4). The longest warming period was registered in late 20 th and early 21 st century if compared to the entire 120 year period of systematic instrumental observations in Belarus. It should be noted that the research and assessment results found in Belarus are of the most general and approximate character. Evaluation of the global climate change impact on the water resources of Belarus has never been made in the river basin perspective. Russian Federation For the baseline study of the climate impact on water resources, information listed in the report titled "On strategic assessments of the climate change consequences for the natural environment and economy of the Union State for the following years" has been analyzed; the report was prepared by the research teams of the Russian Federation and of the Republic of Belarus. According to the report, precipitations are going to increase in the territory of the Union State in winter. Precipitations are only going to increase in the midland and in the North of Russia in summer. Inessential rainfall augmentation is going to be in the Republic of Belarus in some summer months. Arid conditions are expected to develop in the southern regions of the Union State, predominantly in Russia. At that, the number of regions including the arid ones is going to witness an intensive increase of storm rainfalls in summertime. The regions characterized by sufficient or excessive moistening will have a growing of water resources (Figure 2.3). 28

29 Figure 2.3 Water resource changes (river runoff) by mid-21 st century (per cent if compared to ); Source: Report "On strategic assessments of the climate change consequences for the natural environment and economy of the Union State for the following years" (draft) However, it is rather problematic to make particular conclusions on the forecast of runoff change in the Neman River basin basing on the studies made in the Russian Federation when preparing this Report. This is due to the fact that the research results are of very general character (annual runoff), and the results should be considerably clarified. Moreover, the Neman River basin is located at the virtual border of a "decreasing-increasing runoff". This forecast allows to make a preliminary conclusion about both the runoff increase (up to 5 per cent roughly) and the runoff decrease (up to 2 per cent); at that, the second scenario is even more likely to happen. That is why it is planned to undertake a more detailed and deep study within the framework of the pilot project under the umbrella of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and ENVSEC, which is titled "Managing water resources of the Neman River basin with respect to climate change adaptation", in order to study climate change implications on water resources of the Neman River basin as various river regimes are concerned (annual runoff, flood runoff, summer-autumn and winter low-water seasons runoff). Lithuania Studies to evaluate climate changes in the Neman River basin have been made to the maximum extent in the territory of Lithuania. To forecast climate changes in the Neman River basin, the report of the Lithuanian Environment Protection Agency [10] applies the most suitable Europe-designed models (HadCM3 and ECHAM5) that portray the developing processes and their feedbacks in a more complex manner. At that, the following social-economic development scenarios have been studied: A1 a very fast economy development is expected; population grows till the mid-21 st century, and decreases then; the state-of-the-art technologies are implemented rapidly. There are usually three subgroups in this group: A1FI fossil (organic) fuel will be a predominant energy resource; A1T non-fossil (non-organic) fuel will be predominant; A1B balanced fuel use is expected; 29

30 A2 the world is predicted to be a very heterogeneous one with a constantly growing number of inhabitants. Economy develops slowly; new technologies are applied at some most developed regions; B1 sudden globalization is likely to happen; the number of inhabitants varies according to the A1 scenario, however the economic system promptly evolves into the information system; the society consumes less; new clean technologies are implemented intensively; B2 the future world is aiming to local solution of economic, social and environmental problems. Population grows constantly (slower than the A2 scenario), and the economy develops intensively on the average. The study has applied the outcoming data to simulate three emission greenhouse scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). The highest greenhouse gas concentration in the air is predicted, providing that the humanity develops according to the A2 emission scenario. Implementation of the B1 scenario would have the smallest impact on the climatesphere. A1B is an intermediary option (though, it is very close to the A2 scenario in the first half of the century). A big portion of the resulting prognostic values has been based on the A1B scenario of changes. The work provides climate forecasts until 2020, the trends of dry spell alternations, the forecast of the runoff of the Neman River basin till 2020, and evaluation of the climate change lake impact. The following conclusions have become the result of the conducted studies. According to the climate element change forecasts, the first two decades of the 21 st century will have air temperature rising at all seasons. The biggest air temperature fluctuations are forecasted for winters (up to 2 ºC), and fluctuations during other seasons will not exceed 1 ºC. The average annual temperature will rise too: from 0.4 ºC to ºC. Rainfall will increase in autumn and winter, it will remain basically the same in summer, and it will lightly increase in spring. Annual precipitation will grow from 2-3 millimeters to millimeters. Sunlight exposure will get longer in spring and autumn, and will get shorter in winter. According to the HadCM3 general circulation model of the A1B scenario, the amount of precipitations across the entire territory of Lithuania will increase by 6 millimeters on the average within the next thirty years. The biggest changes (8-9 millimeters) are forecasted for the South-East of the country and for the Jyamaitia Upland where the amount of winter-season precipitations will achieve millimeters. The amount of spring precipitations should grow by 3 millimeters only, and a light precipitation decrease is likely to happen in the South-Eastern part of the country. The amount of precipitations will decrease by 6-7 millimeters per season in summer and autumn over the whole territory of Lithuania. Weeks-long dry spells may happen in April-October in the studied territory. Therefore the deposits of moisture will exhaust promptly, the horizontal width of the ground water will decrease, and the rivers will dry-up. Dry spells will happen in Lithuania more and more often: in 1970 s-1990's those would happen once in ten years in the average (1964, 1971, 1983), and their number has dramatically increased in the last 16 years: there were even 5 dry spells (1992, 1994, 1999, 2002, 2006). Moreover, previous studies had already mentioned the trend: arid periods had been much longer rather than in late 19 th - early 20 th century. Runoff alteration due to climate changes in the Lithuanian part of the Neman River basin arise from the local physiographic factors. This is specifically the case of the hydrological basin region in South-East Lithuania. Spring flood comes earlier. Spring floods of the majority of the subbasins situated in Western Lithuania will get smaller in 2020 if compared to this year, and they will remain the same in the South-Eastern part or will even exceed the today's level. It was not possible to find out clear characteristic trends of spring flood development till 2020 of the hydrological region in Central Lithuania. Summer-autumn runoff will become more proportional across the entire territory of the basin if compared to the present (the majority of the rivers will be less affected by rain floods). Winter floods of year 2020 will statistically become the beginning of spring flood in the low- 30

31 er reaches of the Neman River (near Lampedjai and Smalinikai): in most instances the increase of the river will start in winter and continue till the end of spring flood. The share of the groundwater runoff in the general river runoff will remain unchanged until Annual alteration of the groundwater runoff will slightly change too. Evaporation will slightly increase over the whole territory of Lithuania. The most vivid total evaporation change will be the move of the intensity peak to spring time in the regions of Central and Western Lithuania. Maximum total evaporation in the hydrological region of Central Lithuania and the Jyamaitia Upland in 2020 is forecasted to be in May (currently maximum values are achieved in June-July). Climate change may have the following implications on the Neman basin lakes. No strong changes are predicted for the lake water balance until The annual water level regime is likely to change the most due to seasonable alterations of the runoff: it is expected that lake water storage will be filled earlier during snow melting, however, their water level will be lower, and it will get slightly higher during summer-autumn low-water. Water level annual range is expected to be smaller than in the late 20th century. Total change of lake water storage will be rather insignificant. Big changes are expected to affect the temperature and ice conditions of the lakes. Sheet ice will be formed on the lakes later, and it will breakup faster. Years of impermanent sheet ice are forecasted to happen more often. Higher temperature of the warm season should be responsible for a higher temperate of the lake water, especially in shallow and unstratified lakes. Changes of the thermal and ice regimes of the lakes may affect the intensiveness of their eutrophication processes and water quality. The ecosystems of the lakes may start changing. Since the vegetation period will get longer and the water temperature will rise, the volume of the primary production will probably grow causing a more intensive denitrification and change of the phosphorus-nitrogen ratio. Changes of the water balance caused by climate changes will not critically affect eutrophication of the lakes and their water quality. Considering the experience of climate forecasting for the three countries of the Neman River basin as well as the results of the Lithuanian project to evaluate climate change adaptation, the HadCM3 and ECHAM5 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models can be preliminary accepted as the most suitable ones to become a basis to forecast climatic changes in the Neman basin. There are good reasons to use the regional models, e.g. CCLM. Such models depict local conditions more precisely. At that, it is important to apply the corresponding scenarios (A2, A1B or B2). Studies conducted in Lithuania have proved that various climate change models affect the results less than various scenarios. Preliminary conclusions of the studies, which have been conducted in Belarus, Lithuania and Russia and that have been devoted to evaluating and forecasting climate changes, are generally comparable. When evaluating climate change implications on the water resources of the Neman River basin, it makes sense to consider the Lithuanian experience of using the climate change models and scenarios. When analyzing the forecast, it makes sense to clarify the scenarios of social-economic development, current and perspective water use characteristics. 31

32 3 Characterization of the meteorological and hydrological observation network in the Neman River basin in the context of using the observation data to analyze and forecast climate change and its impact on the water resources of the river basin To evaluate climate change impact on water resources of the Neman River basin, it is necessary to preliminary shortlist the main hydrological stations and the closest weather stations out of the entire system of meteorological and hydrological monitoring; the "meteorology data - hydrological data" correlation dependences of the shortlisted stations will clearly disclose one-to-one relations between these parameters once they are altered. Moreover, information supplied by such hydrological and weather stations should be as comprehensive as possible, and that should contain data about the "as-long-as-possible" observation period in the statistical point of view; that will be the background for the main statistical criteria. In a quantitative sense, evaluation of the climate change impact on water resources of the river basin will be based on the fluctuating runoff characteristics. These characteristics will be found through calculating the water economy balances of the shortlisted reference hydrological stations. The hydrological stations located right on the Neman River as well as their corresponding reference weather stations will be used to evaluate and make prediction calculations of the climate change impact on the water resources of the Neman River basin. Table 3.1 lists the names and locations of the main hydrological stations and their corresponding weather stations on the Neman River and the station-based characteristics of the gathered hydrological and meteorological information including the observation period. Table The list and general descriptions of hydrological and weather stations in the basin of the Neman River, which are necessary to evaluate and forecast climate change implications # Name of the water body Hydrological stations Location (name) of the hydrological station Gathered information Weather stations Location (name) of the weather station Gathered information Belarus 1 the Neman River Stolbtsy 1922-TP * Stolbtsy 1967-TP 3 the Neman River Mosty 1951-TP Volkovysk 1945-TP 1877-TP , 4 the Neman River Grodno Grodno 1946-TP 5 the Vilia River Vileika 1945-TP Vileika 1945-TP 6 the Vilia River Mikhalishki 1945-TP Lyntupy 1945-TP Lithuania 1 Niamunas Druskininkai 1945-TP Ladziai 2 Niamunas Smalininkai 1812-TP Sovetsk 3 Niamunas Niamaniunai 1955-TP Kaunas 2006-TP 4 Niamunas Kaunas-Lampedis 1957-TP Kaunas 2006-TP 5 Niaris Buvidjai 1966-TP Lyntupy 1945-TP 6 Niaris Vilnius 1950-TP Vilnius 2006-TP 7 Niaris Ionava 1960-TP Kaunas 2006-TP Kaliningrad Region 1 Neman In the territory of the region there are no hydrological stations to monitor the Neman River water discharges. * TP (till present) 32

33 4 Total vulnerability assessment of the Neman River basin water resources to climate change Vulnerability of the water resources in the Neman River basin to climate change arises both from the natural factors, considering the location of the river basin (on the one hand it belongs to the Baltic Sea basin, on the other hand it is close to the "Black Sea - Baltic Sea" watershed), natural, meteorological, hydrological and hydromorphological specifications of the basin, and from the anthropogenic factors due to intensive water use in the river basin. To develop management of the water resources of the Neman River basin, the most essential thing is to consider possible transformation of the discharge hydrographs of low-water years, especially if all the volume of the forecasted change of the annual river runoff belongs to the summer-autumn low-water. Negative consequences of such situations for water use are characterized by the fall of minimum water levels and complicated operations of water transport, recreational use of water bodies, functioning of surface water intakes, and decreasing of the ground water levels (in the river-adjacent zone especially). At that, water quality decreases, the hydrobiological regime transforms due to the change of level and speed regimes of the water bodies, air temperature rises, and as a consequence the oxygen regime gets worse, and self-purification processes slow down. The problems of the low-water periods are topical for the Neman River basin. Figure 4.1 presents calculation results of the annual distribution of runoff from 1877 to the present day for the Neman River outlet station in the territory of Belarus (Grodno). Typical water discharge hydrographs in the low-water year (75 per cent of probability) and in the very low-water year (95 per cent of probability) have been calculated by grouping the periods shallow year 75% of probability very shallow year 95% of probability water discharge, m 3 /s J a n u a ry F e b ru a ry M a rc h A p ril M a y 33 месяц J u n e Figure Annual distribution of the Neman River runoff in low-water years (m 3 /s) according to the data received from the hydrological station in Grodno (Belarus) for the entire observation period (since 1887 till present) An essential irregularity of the annual distribution of runoff causes an increased vulnerability of the Neman River water resources to climate changes. According to the observations made in the territory of Belarus, runoff can go down to its minimum of just 3 per cent of the annual volume per month in some summer and winter months of the low-water years, and it can even be as small as 2 J u ly A u g u s t S e p te m b e r O c to b e r N o v e m b e r D e c e m b e r

34 per cent in very low-water years (especially in case of small rivers) [11]. Based on the calculations made for the Neman River according to the observation data at the hydrological station in Grodno since 1877 until present day, runoff can be as low as 5 per cent from the annual volume in certain months of the low-water year, and it can be as low as 4 per cent in a very low-water year. Analysis of the air temperature fluctuations and annual precipitation data supplied by the Grodno Meteorological Station (the "Belarus-Lithuania" transboundary district of the Neman River) presented in Figure 4.2 shows the average annual air temperature growth and the decrease of annual precipitation as for the weather station in Grodno. At the same time the Vilnius Meteorological Station reports insignificant annual precipitation increase (figure 4.3). These Belarusian and Lithuanian results correspond to the pan-european assessments according to which the amount of precipitations is decreasing in Southern Europe and increasing in Northern Europe. Lithuania and Belarus are situated in the middle of Europe approximately; at that, Lithuania is closer to Northern Europe, and Belarus is closer to Southern Europe average annual temperature, о С sum of precipitation, mm Figure Average annual air temperature and annual precipitation according to the Grodno Weather Station according to the information presented by Egidijus Rimkus (Vilnius University), 34

35 Figure 4.3 Annual precipitation (millimeters) according to the Vilnius Weather Station Analysis of the runoff change of the Neman River transboundary (Belarus-Lithuania) river district is presented in figures , and this is also according to the materials of the Vilnius University * (figures ); according to the data it is possible to make the following preliminary conclusions about the trends of the runoff changes in the Neman River: annual water discharge has slightly decreased (figure 4.4); at that, annual water discharge has increased in many river tributaries in the territory of Lithuania (the territory of Belarus reports both an increased and decreased water discharge of the river tributaries); this increases the risks of floods in warm season (especially in July) due to rain floods caused by a more frequent repetition of extreme amounts of precipitations; minimal water discharge during summer-autumn low-water remained almost unchanged; only minimal water discharge has insignificantly increased during the observation period with a trend of a decreasing water discharge during the last years (figure 4.5); water discharge has considerably increased during low-water winter seasons (especially in January and February), which has been due to warming of winters, the increased amount of winter precipitations and a diminished thickness and durability of snow cover (figures 4.6, 4.8, 4.9); water discharge has decreased during spring flood: floods become less extreme, and the spring flood peak comes earlier (figures 4.7, 4.10). The listed trends have been clearly seen after * Egidijus Rimkus, Vilnius University 35

36 water discharge, m 3 /s Figure Average annual water discharges of the Neman River according to the Grodno hydrological station water discharge, m 3 /s Figure 4.5 Minimum water discharges of the Neman River according to the Grodno hydrological station during summer-autumn low-water 36

37 water discharge, m 3 /s Figure Minimum water discharges of the Neman River according to the Grodno hydrological station during winter low-water water discharge, m 3 /s Figure Maximum water discharges of the Neman River according to the Grodno hydrological station

38 Figure Mean temperature (ºC ) and the amount of precipitations (millimeters) in January- February in Vilnius Figure 4.9 Alteration of snow cover thickness and durability in Vilnius from 1961 till

39 Figure Discharges hydrographs of the Neman River according to the Smalininkai hydrological station after disposal of the Kaunas Hydro Electric Power Station from 1985 till 2009 (the red curve), from 1960 till 1984 (the blue curve): today the high water peak comes 23 days earlier than 50 years ago. The presented results of the analysis of the water regime change of the Neman River (especially of the winter low-water and spring flood) prove correlation between the water resource characteristics and the meteorological data, and also vulnerability of the water resources to climatic conditions. Total vulnerability assessment of the water resources of the Neman River basin in the territory of the Kaliningrad Region (Russia) has been made by Andrei Shalygin (the State Hydrological Institution (St. Petersburg, Russia). The statistical analysis of hydrometeorological data in the European Russia made it possible to conclude that since the late 1970 s till the late 1980 s, runoff forming conditions in almost all river basins have significantly changed: increase of water discharges during the low-flow months, especially winter, rise of the minimum water discharges, increased variability of some characteristics of river water regime, especially of the winter runoff. For example, the total water resources of the Volga - the largest river of the European Russia - grew on average by 17%, while the winter runoff has increased by % and its dispersion has sharply increased also. Since the Russian Federation doesn t have water discharge gauges on the Neman river on it s territory in Kaliningrad region (the lowest one is at Smalininkai in Lithuania), we don t have data on the Neman runoff since early 1900 s and can t make analogical analysis for the Neman river runoff. However, analysis of the meteorological data provided by the observation stations situated in the Kaliningrad Region makes it possible to conclude that temperature has been rising from January till March (after 1988 especially). Average annual air temperature in the territory of the Neman River basin the Kaliningrad Region increased by 1.2 C from 1989 till 2009 if compared to the period from 1946 till 1987 (Figure 4.11). Monthly mean air temperature has practically increased throughout the entire year but for November; at that, maximum warming is from January till March (by 2.6 C on the average). (Figure 4.12). 39

40 10 a) Mean annual air temperature, o C b) Mean air temperature during Jan-Mar, o C Figure 4.11 Long-term dynamics of the average annual air temperature fluctuations (a) in the Neman River basin (Kaliningrad) and of the mean temperature from January till March (b) Monthly air temperature о С Figure 4.12 Monthly mean air temperature from 1946 till 1987 and from 1988 till

41 Annual precipitation has slightly increased (by 18 mm) in relative to , basically in January-March (by 34 mm). Another months have different divergences of precipitation anomalies. Trends of the air temperature change found in the Russian territory of the Neman River basin can be compared with the results received in the territories of Lithuania and Belarus by the experts of these countries. 41

42 5 Description of the existing legislative and normative base for development of international cooperation in the Neman River basin and for planning in the field of use of water resources in the context of climate change Characterization of the existing legislative and normative base contains the list of existing international conventions and framework documents as well as of the international agreements, strategies and event plans focused on integrated water resource management (including the climate change issues) regarding the transboundary basin of the Neman River. The main international conventions and framework documents for international cooperation in the Neman River basin are as follows: The Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes. Place and date of entering into force: , Helsinki. This Convention is ratified by Belarus, Lithuania and Russian Federation. Convention on Environmental Impact Assessment in a Transboundary Context (ESPOO, EIA). Signed by the Republic of Belarus: Ratified by the Republic of Belarus: This Convention is ratified by Belarus and Lithuania, and it is signed by Russian Federation. Guidance on Water and adaptation to climate change UNECE, New York and Geneva, The EU Water Framework Directive. 2000/60/ ЕС. These two documents are methodical for the three countries of the Neman river basin. Bilateral agreements: Agreement between the Government of the Republic of Belarus and the Government of the Russian Federation "On environment protection cooperation" (entered into force on July 5, 1994); Agreement between the Government of the Republic of Belarus and the Government of the Russian Federation "On cooperation in the fields of environment protection and sustainable use of transboundary water bodies" (entered into force on October 25, 2002); Agreement between the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus and the Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Lithuania "On environment protection cooperation" (signed on April 14, 1995); Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the Republic of Lithuania "On environment protection cooperation" (June 29, 1999); Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the Republic of Poland "On environment protection cooperation" (August 25, 1993); Technical protocol "On cooperation in the field of monitoring and data exchange on transboundary surface waters" (signed by the Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Lithuania and the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus in 2008). These documents are signed at level necessary as their status and they are a basis for bilateral cooperation. The trilateral agreement: The is trilateral agreement developed in 2007 y. between the Government of the Russian Federation, the Government of the Republic of Belarus and the Government of the Republic of Lithuania: "On cooperation in the field of use and protection of the water bodies in the Neman River basin". European Union expressed interest to accede to the Agreement as the fourth side and to submit it to Republic of Belarus and to Russian Federation. Republic of Belarus has no objection to EU accession to the Agreement as the fourth side. Solution of the problem with Russian Federation is at the stage of negotiations. National normative legal acts of the countries of the Neman River basin essentially provide for a complex approach to use and protection of waters, and they are targeted to implement the principles of the Helsinki Convention of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe 42

43 (UNECE) to protect and use the transboundary watercourses and international lakes. Moreover, additions and amendments are constantly put into the legislative acts in order to harmonize national laws with the accepted international obligations. Thus, for example, the Republic of Belarus is developing a new edition of the Water Code. This Edition will use of the River basin approach to water resource management considering also global experience and climate change adaptation. There are following achievements as the developed strategies and event plans on integrated water resource management are concerned (including the climate change issues) with regard to the transboundary basin of the Neman River: in Lithuania: the Neman River Basin Management Plan was developed in 2010; the plan includes the system of measures to improve the environmental situation of the water bodies of the basin on the level of its sub-basins (section 3 of this plan is devoted to assessment and adaptation to climate change). the plan of "Assessment of surface water bodies" was developed in 2010; the document presents the typology of the water bodies with regard to the EU Recommendations; the document provides methodology and the results of the water body quality evaluation; the background (reference) conditions, parameters and evaluation criteria are provided there too; in Belarus: within the framework of the program document, which is titled "Strategies in the field of environment protection in the Republic of Belarus for the period until 2025", a number of measures is planned to implement the tasks related to decreasing of the climate impact and adaptation of social and economic spheres to its changes in 2010 (introducing of an cleaner production methods to industry and agriculture, decreasing of gas emission and wastewaters); the draft of the Schemes of Complex Use and Protection of the Neman River basin water resources was developed in 2010; the schemes include systematized materials of the studies and project calculations with regard to the current status and perspective development of complex use, protection of water resources and adverse effect control of the waters, which is tied with the development perspectives of all sectors of the national economy; The Central Scientific Research Institution of Complex Use of Water Resources (CRI- CUWR) developed the system of reference parameters and water quality classification for the main basins of the Transboundary Rivers including the Neman River basin in ; the system and classification considered the recommendations of the EU Water Framework Directive and experience of the EU countries [12]. The draft of the "Water strategy of the Republic of Belarus till 2020" specifies main areas of activities related to protection and use of water resources in the Republic of Belarus providing guaranteed quality drinking water supply to the population, sustainable rational water use in industries and agriculture, protection of water bodies and ground water from pollution and excessive water withdrawal, protection of the population and territories from negative impact of waters, and considerable development of use of unique water bodies for recreation and ecotourism of the country's population, reduction of non-productive expenditures in water economy and improvement of returns from the water-resource potential for the country's economy. In the context of climate change, a long-term aim of the Strategy titled "Protection of population and economy sites from floods and other negative water impacts" includes cushioning of risks and minimizing losses caused by the negative water impacts, providing dependability of hydrotechnical constructions, regulating and scheduling practical use of the territories that are subject to repeating floods and other impacts of dangerous hydrological events, developing monitoring technologies including forecasting and prevention of dangerous hydrological events. In Russian Federation Russian Federation has approved the "Water strategy of the Russian Federation for the period until 2020 and its implementation plan" in Within the framework of this strategy, studies 43

44 are to be made to develop principles and mechanisms of all-inclusive (integrated) management of use and protection of water bodies, methods and models of long-term forecasting of climate changes and water content of rivers, planning and realization of the complex of research-anddevelopment activities. The Kaliningrad Region is very exposed to piled-up water and floods, because this regional center is situated in the river mouth and it has wide polder territories. Development of the Kaliningrad Region will largely depend on efficiency of water monitoring and the water resource management system. No special events devoted to water resource management of the Neman River basin with respect to climate change have been developed before, but for Lithuania, where those issues have been specified in Section 3 of "The water resource management plan for the Neman River basin" (2010). 44

45 6 Brief description of the previously implemented projects related to the Neman River basin The majority of international projects related to the Neman River basin have been implemented within the framework of the technical assistance programs of the European Union (the TA- CIS Program) and within the framework of various programs of regional transboundary cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region where the funds have been provided nationally and by the European Union. The TACIS transboundary cooperation program The EU and the Russian Federation started the first projects of the Cooperation Program in the Kaliningrad Region in The goals and objectives of the "Ecological monitoring and water resource management" project in were development and implementation of the efficient river water quality control system at the rivers situated in the districts of the Kaliningrad Region and used as sources of drinking water, and preparation of the water resource management plan and development of the long-term investment program of waste water treatment for the Kaliningrad near shore zone. The goals of the project were also: development of near-border cooperation targeted to support sustainable projects; strengthening of the near-border municipal economy systems; solution of the mutual environment protection problems in the near-border districts. Main results of this projects activity are: improvement of the transboundary cooperation between Russia, Poland and Lithuania, technical assistance to Russia in waste water treatment as well as environmental monitoring procedures. The project titled "Water treatment in the Kaliningrad Region. Phases 1 and 2" was focused on inventory of the sewage water treatment plants and assessment of their operations. Water supply and water treatment systems are being improved and modernized in Kaliningrad within the framework of NDEP (Northern Dimension Environmental Partnership). Aggregate investments were equal to 110 million Euro. Main results of this project activity are: improvement of transboundary cooperation between Russia, Poland and Lithuania, technical assistance and investment to Kaliningrad Region in waste water treatment as well as environmental monitoring procedures. The project titled "Regional development and conservation of nature in the Neman Euroregion" was one of the first TACIS projects ever implemented in the Republic of Belarus; the project used to cover the watershed area of the Neman River. As the project was implemented, the "Grodno Region" GIS (Geographical Information System) was developed with regard to the then existing specially protected natural sites (SPNS) and the elements of tourist infrastructure. Project supports transboundary regional cooperation between Byelorussian and Lithuanian environmental authorities. The project titled "Restriction of agricultural and industrial river pollution: surface water quality improvement in the Neman River basin (Grodno Region, Belarus)" was implemented in the Republic of Belarus in within the framework of the TACIS program. The primary objective of the project was to improve quality of surface water in the Neman River basin through perfecting water resource quality control practice in Grodno Region (Belarus). To pursue 45

46 the main project goal, specific implementation phases were offered; the phases were targeted to long-term improvement of the water quality control system in Grodno Region, wider transboundary cooperation to solve transboundary problems, execution of international obligations in the Neman River basin, nationwide application of the adjusted water quality control practice. Main results of the project: institutional improvement of the water quality control system in Grodno Region; assessment of the water quality control system operating in Grodno Region; enhancements for transboundary cooperation and implementation of international obligations in the Neman River basin of Gomel Region; implementation of agricultural and industrial projects to demonstrate economic and environmental benefits of environmentally-safe manufacturing; purchasing of equipment for the laboratory monitoring branches of the Grodno Regional Natural Resources and Environmental Protection Committee. Within the framework of the project it was suggested to establish the Neman River Basin Commission. Consultations with the environment-oriented services (the corresponding departments of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus and of the Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Lithuania) also continued in the course of the project with regard to the topic of transboundary cooperation. The basic issue was information and data exchange between the partnership organizations in Belarus and Lithuania. The Swedish Environmental Protection Agency Cooperation in environmental protection and rational use of the transboundary river resources in the Baltic Sea Region was efficiently developed and supported by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA). The drafts of the trilateral intergovernmental agreements On protection and rational use of the Western Dvina and the Neman rivers" were developed. Within the framework of the transboundary cooperation program, the first phase of the international project on development of trilateral cooperation in the Neman River basin was implemented in The goal of the program was to develop international cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region, and the main task was to sign intergovernmental agreements on transboundary basins. A seminar was organized in Kaliningrad in 2002 to discuss the assessment results of the river condition and to suggest recommendations for further trilateral cooperation. The project of the trilateral agreement on cooperation in the Neman River basin was discussed in Belarus in autumn 2002; the draft agreement on the Western Dvina River became the basis for that document. The result of the first project phase was analysis of the hydroecology situation of the Neman River, establishment of the system to manage water resources of Russia, and joint environment protection programs for Russia, Belarus and Lithuania as well as gathering and analysis of information on the current situation in the field of cooperation regarding mutual management of water resources of the Neman River and environment projection in the river basin. Within the framework of Phase 2 of the project it was planned to develop an action plan on sustainable use and protection of water resources of the Neman River basin and to sign a trilateral agreement. Within the framework of the project titled "Establishment of the system to provide and control quality of data received by the laboratories while organizing transboundary monitoring in the basins of the Western Dvina and the Neman rivers (in the territory of the Republic of Belarus)" the specialists from the laboratory monitoring branches of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus (Minsk, Vitebsk, Grodno) were trained on the matters of data quality control in Projects with support of SEPA were initiated process of trilateral agreement preparation and after EU-enlargement in 2004 when Lithuania become member of EU activity for new agreement between Belarus, Lithuania, Russia and EU is started. 46

47 An international project titled Managing and Developing the Water Resources Assets in Kaliningrad oblast, Russia in Support of economic Growth and environmental Sustainability with Lithuanian, Polish and Swedish examples was implemented under the guidance of the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA) in 2011, which resulted in a publication [18]. OSCE A number of water resource use and protection projects were implemented in Belarus with the assistance of the OSCE office in Minsk. One of those projects was "Regulations' implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive". Reference aids were published under the titles "The EU Water Framework Directive" and "The policy of the Republic of Belarus in the field of water resources" within the framework of the project. One of the reference aids was targeted to the specialists operating in that field and to the regional and local authorities making decisions in the field of water resource management; and the second reference aid was for a high readership. Publishing of the reference aids is committed to provide necessary information about priorities and principles declared by the EU Water Framework Directive regarding water resource management in an accessible form, and this should contribute to the time-phased implementation of the Directive's guidelines in the Republic of Belarus. The project titled "Development of coordinated approach to evaluate quality of transboundary waters of the Neman River basin for Belarus and Lithuania" was implemented in Within the framework of the project an operative meeting of the Lithuanian, Belarusian and EU experts was organized; the Ecopravo NGO participated in the event too; at the event the participants exchanged information about the assessment criteria applied in Lithuania and Belarus to evaluate transboundary water quality in the Neman River basin; they have also shared information about the practice of the European countries with regard to the negotiation process when harmonizing the assessment procedures used to evaluate transboundary water quality; the parties expressed their suggestions on an optimal scheme of bilateral cooperation. A protocol resolution was signed to stipulate measures to be undertaken by the parties to establish a common approach to transboundary water quality assessment in the Neman River basin. One of the achieved results of the project was establishment of the platform for signing of "The technical protocol of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus and the Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Lithuania on cooperation in the field of monitoring and information exchange regarding condition of the transboundary surface waters" in International interlaboratory comparative analyses are organized in line with this document in order to measure transboundary water quality parameters of the transboundary stretches of the Neman and the Vilia rivers. The goal of the joint research is to intercalibrate the methods of how to take measurements and verify the data received. Regional laboratories from Belarus and Lithuania are using this document as basis for monitoring of the transboundary sites of the Neman River. Regional cooperation projects in the Neman River basin Within the framework of regional cooperation, the "Latvia - Lithuania - Belarus" program of the European Neighborhood and Partnership Instrument (ENPI) implemented the project titled "Near-border cooperation of the neighboring regions of the Republic of Belarus and the Republic of Lithuania to improve environmental safety of the mutual water basin". The Grodno Regional Committee on Natural Resources and Environment Protection, the Vodokanal Grodno Municipal Manufacturing Enterprise, the Capital Construction Management of the Grodno City Executive Committee, and the Grodno State University named after Yanka Kupala participated in the project from the Belarusian side. The Alytus District Administration, the Alytus and Vilnius Regional Environment Protection Department of the Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Lithuania participated in the project from the Lithuanian side. 47

48 The project results were summarized at the conference titled "Neman is a connecting link for cooperation of the near-border regions" that took place in Lithuania in The old water pumping station was reconstructed in Grodno within the framework of the project. Modern pumps were bought at the expense of the European Union, and the Belarusian side covered all other expenses. New wastewater pumps will ensure the continuing operation of the station, reduce the risk of environmental accidents, and create conditions for a more prudent use of energy resources. The reconstructed water pumping station in Grodno will contribute to improvement of water quality not only in the Grodno region, but in the Alytus District of Lithuania too. The project allowed the Grodno Regional Committee on Natural Resources and Environment Protection to have additional explorations of the Neman River water basin. The condition of the Neman River had been controlled previously. However, the measures supervised by the project allowed covering a bigger number of the Neman River feeders. The main pollution sources of Grodno City were assessed regarding their anthropogenic impacts on surface water and quality characteristics of the Neman River. The research was organized in a few fields in September 2008 through to December 2009 to have a comprehensive condition assessment of the water bodies in the Neman River basin. The "Neman" Euroregion An agreement on establishment of the "Neman" Euroregion was signed between the Grodno Region (Belarus), the Suwalki Voivodeship (Poland), the Alytus and Marijampole Districts (Lithuania) on June 6, 1997; the Charter of the region was approved on the same day. The Neman Euroregion was not established like other Euroregions in Poland and Europe. Since there were no full-fledged self-government bodies in the territory of Belarus and the Kaliningrad Region (Russia), the agreement on establishment of the Euroregion had been signed by the representatives of the government administration, which had caused minor participation of the local self-governments in that transboundary cooperation, and the operating radius of the Euroregion had been of a territorial character. A reform was carried out five years after the region had been established; due to the reform, the Euroregion operating radius in Poland and Lithuania was not longer territorial, but subjective. Currently the Neman Euroregion includes: from the Polish side: Podlyasskoe and Suvalkskoe voivodeships; from the Lithuanian side: Marijampole, Alytus and Vilnius counties; from the Belarusian side: Grodno Region; from the Russian side: Cherniakhovsk, Gusev, Osersk, Krasnoznamensk and Nesterov (Kaliningrad Region). Priority environment protection targets of the Euroregion are: protection of the Neman River basin; construction of the sewage water treatment plants; waste management; establishment of the secured transboundary territories; use of the renewable energy sources; development of the transboundary energy networks. 48

49 Conclusions and Suggestions Despite some discrepancy of information presented in this report on the countries located in the Neman River basin, generally it is still possible to make some conclusions and suggestions based on the results of the baseline study. 1. Water resources and extreme hydro meteorological conditions Water resources of the Neman River basin are mainly formed in the territory of 3 countries: Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia. An insignificant part of the runoff (about 0.1 per cent) is supplied by the river tributaries situated in Poland and Latvia. Considering average year runoff, Belarus provides 43.7 per cent of the runoff, Lithuania provides 50.0 per cent of the runoff, and Russia provides 6.2 per cent of the runoff. Due to its climatic peculiarities, the Neman River basin is mostly characterized by arid elements as well as by spring floods and summer-autumn rains causing floods. 2. Water use Intensive water use goes on in the Neman River basin due to industries and agriculture, pond fishery, and hydro-power engineering. In the overall water use structure, surface water comprises about 50 per cent in Belarus, about 96 per cent in Lithuania, and the Kaliningrad Region (Russia) uses surface water for the most part. There are 32 hydroelectric power stations located in Lithuania in the territory of the Neman River basin, and the Kaunas Hydro Electric Power Station is the biggest. There are 10 small hydroelectric power stations situated in Belarus in the territory of the river basin. The Grodno Hydro Electric Power Station, to be placed on the Neman River (upstream of Grodno City), is under construction. It is planned to build the Neman Hydro Electric Power Station (downstream of Grodno). An intensive water use in the Neman River basin and essential irregularity of the annual runoff distribution of the Neman River causes an increased vulnerability of the water resources in the Neman River basin to climate changes. 3. Meteorological and hydrological observations The meteorological observation network in the Neman River basin includes 40 meteorological stations. 25 of them are situated in the territory of Belarus, 13 are located in the territory of Lithuania, and 2 stations are situated in the territory of the Kaliningrad Region (Russia). The hydrological observation network includes 75 hydrological stations. 27 of them are situated in the territory of Belarus, 45 stations are located in the territory of Lithuania, and 3 stations are based in the territory of the Kaliningrad Region (Russia). The Neman River discharges are not monitored in the Kaliningrad Region. 4. General assessment of surface water quality Surface water quality monitoring of the Neman River is conducted at 33 monitoring posts in Belarus, at in Lithuania and at 3 - in the Kaliningrad Region (Russia). The quality assessment systems in the countries of the basin are different. It is vital to develop suggestions on the Neman River basin-coordinated list of water body status indicators (environmental and chemical), on the classification system, and on the environmental status assessment criteria depending from the selected indicators. At that, it makes sense to use the experience of Lithuania on water body assessment with respect to the recommendations of the EU Water Framework Directive, and it is worthwhile to refer to the Belarusian record of development of the surface water quality target values for the waters of the Neman River basin. 5. Climate change and its impact on water resources (preliminary conclusions) The most comprehensive study on the possible climate change consequences for the Neman basin was carried out in Lithuania in The study has explored that the highest air temperature alterations are forecasted for winter (the temperature will rise by 2 ºC), and alterations in other seasons will not exceed +1 ºC. The average annual temperature will rise too: from 0.4 to ºC. Precipitations will increase in autumn and winter, it will remain basically the same in summer, and it will lightly increase in spring. Annual precipitation will grow from 2-3 millimeters to

50 millimeters. Sunlight exposure will get longer in spring and autumn, and will get shorter in winter. The forecasted runoff alteration due to the climate change impact in the Lithuanian part of the Neman basin will be characterized by earlier spring floods, by more proportional summer-autumn runoff, by insignificant alterations of the groundwater runoff, by an increased water evaporation across the entire territory, and by small changes of the lake water balance (at that, their water levels will change as well as their temperature and ice regimes). Studies previously conducted in Belarus with the use of practically the same global models that had been used in Lithuania (HadCM) for the period of reported an increase of the average annual air temperature by 1 о С; at that, the average annual day-time temperature would rise by 0.92 о С, and the average annual night-time temperature would rise by 1.15 о С. According to the studies made in Lithuania and Belarus, the mentioned generalizations based on the potential scenarios of climate change can be reviewed as preliminary ones to discuss mutual scenarios of climate change for the Neman River basin. It is possible to preliminary accept the HadCM3 and ECHAM5 models as the most suitable atmosphere-ocean general circulation models for forecasting climate changes in the Neman basin. There are good reasons to use the regional models, e.g. CCLM. Such models depict local conditions more precisely. It is also important to use the corresponding scenarios. Studies conducted in Lithuania have proved that various climate change models affect the results less than various scenarios. Preliminary conclusions of the studies devoted to evaluating and climate change forecasting conducted in Belarus, Lithuania and Russia are generally adequate comparable, and they stay in line with global warming concept. Recent decades have a clear warming trend, especially in winter and spring months. The longest warming period for the entire 120-year period of systematic observations was in the late 20 th and early 21 st century. When evaluating the climate change impact on water resources of the Neman River basin, it makes sense to apply the Lithuanian experience concerning the use of the climate change models and the generated climate change scenarios. When analyzing the forecast, it makes sense to clarify the scenarios of social-economic development, current and perspective water use specifications. Analysis of the air temperature fluctuations and annual precipitation data supplied by the Grodno meteorological station reported the average annual air temperature growth and the decrease of annual precipitation. At the same time, the Vilnius meteorological station reported an insignificant annual precipitation increase. These results correspond to the pan-european assessments according to which the amount of precipitations decreases in Southern Europe and increases in Northern Europe. Lithuania and Belarus are situated in the middle of Europe approximately, at that Lithuania is closer to Northern Europe, and Belarus is closer to Southern Europe. Analysis of the runoff change of the Neman River allows making the following preliminary conclusions about the tendencies: annual water discharge has slightly decreased (at that, annual water discharge has increased in many river tributaries in the territory of Lithuania; and the territory of Belarus reports both an increased and decreased water discharge of the river tribuataries); this increases the risks of floods in warm season (especially in July) due to rain floods caused by a more frequent repetition of extreme amounts of precipitations; minimal water discharge during summer-autumn low-water remained almost unchanged; only minimal water discharge has insignificantly increased during the observation period with a trend of a decreasing water discharge during the last years; water discharge has considerably increased during low-water winter seasons (especially in January and February), which has been due to warming of winters, the increased amount of winter precipitations and a diminished thickness and durability of snow cover; water discharge has decreased during spring flood: floods become less extreme, and the spring flood peak comes earlier; 6. International cooperation and management of water resources International cooperation in the Neman River basin basically has the required normative base including international conventions and framework documents, bilateral agreements as well 50

51 as national legislative and normative legal acts. There is trilateral agreement developed in 2007 y. between the Government of the Russian Federation, the Government of the Republic of Belarus and the Government of the Republic of Lithuania: "On cooperation in the field of use and protection of the water bodies in the Neman River basin". European Union expressed interest to accede to the Agreement as the fourth side and to submit it to Republic of Belarus and to Russian Federation. Republic of Belarus has no objection to EU accession to the Agreement as the fourth side. Solution of the problem with Russian Federation is at the stage of negotiations. No special events devoted to water resource management of the Neman River basin with respect to climate change have been developed before, but for Lithuania, where those issues have been specified in Section 3 of "The water resource management plan for the Neman River basin" (2010). The countries of the Neman River basin have implemented a number of international projects; it makes sense to use the experience and results of those projects when implementing a pilot project on water resource management in the Neman River basin with respect to climate change adaptation. In conditions of the changing climate, in order to develop adaptation measures, it makes sense to create a shared information exchange system to evaluate water resources of the entire basin and individual countries. 7. Further studies The goals of the further studies are as follows: to evaluate current condition of the water resources in the Neman River basin (quantitative characteristics) and analyze how they are affected by economic activities; to study changes of climatic characteristics of the Neman River basin and develop climate change scenarios; to forecast runoff of the Neman River basin in conditions of further possible climate change with respect to various water use and social-economic development scenarios; to analyze the systems of hydrometeorological, hydrochemical and hydrobiological monitoring in the transboundary basin of the Neman River and evaluate the possibilities to optimize these systems to carry out climate change monitoring (including extreme situations); to evaluate and forecast future climate change impact on water quality for the highest level of generalization; to develop a shared information platform (Internet-based databases) containing data on water resource management and climate change adaptation in the countries of the Neman River basin; to give suggestions on methods and measures to adapt to climate changes in the Neman River basin. 51

52 Reference Index 1. Guidelines for water resources and climate change adaptation. UN, New York and Geneva, Penkovskaya A.M., R.A. Yurevich, The Neman River. - Minsk: Universitetskoye J. Jablonskis, J. Jurgeleviciene, A.Juskiene Nemuno hidrografija, Vilnius: Lietuvos Respublikos Aplinkos apsaugos departamentas, Lietuvos Eneregtikos Institutas, 1993, pp Jablonskis J., Jurgelevičien J., Juskien A. Hydrography of the Neman River, 1993, Vilnius; J. Jablonskis, M. Lasinskas "The Cadastre of the rivers of the Lithuanian SSR", Vilnius: Valstybin politin s ir mokslin s literatūros leidykla, The State Water Cadastre. Water resources, their use and water quality Minsk: The Central Scientific Research Institution of Complex Use of Water Resources (CRICUWR) Nemuno upių baseinų rajono valdymo planas AAA, Vilnius On environmental situation in the Kaliningrad Region in The Government of the Kaliningrad Region Kaliningrad The Fifth National Message of the Republic of Belarus in line with the obligations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change / The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus. Minsk: The "Ecology" Belarusian Scientific Research Center (BelNIC Ecology), p Loginov V.F. Global and regional climate change: causes and effects. Minsk: TetraSystems, p Dangerous weather events in the territory of Belarus / Loginov V.F., Volchek A.A., Shpoka I.N. Minsk: Belarusian Science, p Climate change implications on the rivers and lakes in the Neman RIver basin p Volchek A.A., Kalinin M.Y., Gertman L.N., Chekan G.S., Prediction estimate of Belarusian water resource transformation in climate change / The Bulletin of the Brest State Technical University #3. Brest, pp Developing and evaluating the system to assess the environmental situation of the rivers applying the reference parameters: report on the scientific river studies (final) / The Central Scientific- Research Institution of Complex Use of Water Resources (CRICUWR); mngr. Stankevich A.P. Minsk, p # GR Gailiušis B, Jablonskis J., Kovalenkovien M. Lietuvos up s. Hidrografija ir nuot kis. Kaunas, LEI, Dangerous hydrometeorological events in the territory of Belarus. Digest / The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus; general editorship by Golberg M.A. - Minsk: The "Ecology" Belarusian Scientific Research Center (BelNIC Ecology), pp Baltic Sea Environmental Proceedings. No. 35 B. Second Periodic Assessment of the State of the Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea, ; Background Document / Baltic Marine Environmental Commission Helsinki Commission- Helsinki, 1990, pp Managing and Developing the Water Resources Assets in Kaliningrad oblast, Russia in Support of economic Growth and environmental Sustainability with Lithuanian, Polish and Swedish examples / Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI). Paper 17 Stockholm, June 2011, p