1 Mathematical Modeling of Risk Acceptability Criteria Jim Rasmuson Andrey Korchevskiy Eric Rasmuson Chemistry & Industrial Hygiene, Inc W. 43 rd Ave., Wheat Ridge, CO
2 Objectives To compare various risk acceptability concepts To explore various potential mathematical models to estimate acceptable or tolerable risk To illustrate risk communication problems and potential acceptable and negligible risk exposure ranges through asbestos exposure examples
3 Perceptions and Problems that Make Risk Communication Difficult 1. Involuntary risks are unacceptable. 2. Once minds are made up, it s hard to change them. 3. Trust and credibility require long-term effort. 4. Unfamiliarity breeds contempt. 5. Health risks may be secondary in environmental controversy. 6. Community values/beliefs/perceptions can outweigh science in shaping public policy. 7. The best communication cannot reverse bad risk-management decisions. -- Thomas A. Burke, PhD, MPH, Johns Hopkins University
4 Potential Criteria for Risk Acceptability 1. Estimated Disease Incidence (per year or lifetime) 2. Relative Risk» Attributable Risk Fraction 3. Cost-Benefit Analysis 4. Life Expectancy Analysis World Health Organization (WHO). Water Quality: Guidelines, Standards and Health. Edited by Lorna Fewtrell and Jamie Bartram. Published by IWA Publishing, London, UK (2001) and Others
5 1. Lifetime Risk Approach
6 Acceptable Environmental Risk (USEPA) One in a million lifetime risk: So small as to be negligible. Between one in a million and one in ten thousand lifetime risk: Generally considered to be acceptable. epa gov/region8/r8risk/hh risk html
7 Asbestos: No Safe Level of Exposure? Statement commonly included in regulatory and health agency statements. What does it mean? No threshold?
8 Common Definitions Hazard: Potential to do harm Risk: Probability of that harm occurring for a particular exposure scenario (Probability times the severity of the outcome.) Safety: Acceptable Risk (Danger): Unacceptable Risk) ISO/IEC Guide 51:2014 OSHA, Guidance for hazard determination, 7.html
9 Acceptable Risk in the Workplace (OSHA) In the Benzene Decision, the Supreme Court stated: if the odds are one in a thousand that regular inhalation of gasoline vapors that are 2% benzene will be fatal, a reasonable person might well consider the risk significant and take the appropriate steps to decrease or eliminate it.
10 Negligible Risk In Radiation Protection Negligible individual dose corresponds to cancer mortality of 0.03 cases per 1,000 (30 cases per 1,000,000) NCRP (1993). National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements. Limitation of Exposure to Ionizing Radiation, NCRP Report No. 116 (National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, Bethesda, Maryland). Data from ICRP (1991). International Commission on Radiological Protection Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection, ICRP Publication 60, Annals of the ICRP 21 (1 3) (Pergamon Press, Elmsford, New York).
11 European Union (REACH) Tolerable lifetime cancer risk levels: 1 case per 100,000 for workers 1 case per 1,000,000 for general population
12 Occupational Exposure Level (f/cc, 45 years starting at the age of 18) Yielding One Case of Cancer per 1000 Mineral Type U.S. EPA IRIS Berman, Crump (2008) Hodgson, Darnton (2000, 2014) PCM Chrysotile Amphiboles Crocidolite Amosite 0.014
13 The Precautionary Principle is not Always Precautionary
14 Occupational Exposure Level (f/cc, 45 years starting at the age of 18) Yielding One Case of Mesothelioma per 1000 Mineral Type U.S. EPA IRIS Berman, Crump (2008) Hodgson, Darnton (2000, 2014) PCM Chrysotile Amphiboles Crocidolite Amosite 0.026
15 Low-Level Exposure Mesothelioma Response, Four Case- Control Studies, Based on Cumulative Exposure Estimation Rodelsperger Linear Lacourt, B Lacourt, A Iwatsubo Shows significant, but inconsistent sub linear dose response down to quite low estimated mixed fiber type cumulative asbestos exposure levels
16 2. Relative Risk and Attributable Risk Fraction
18 Attributable Risk Fraction Examples When RR = 2, ARF = 50% When RR = 1.1, ARF = 9% In this example, there is a 9% chance in a population with an exposure that yields a RR of 1.1, that an individual case is related to the exposure. Conversely, there is a 91% chance that the case is not related to the exposure.
19 Asbestos Lung Cancer Example, Nicholson, 1986 Approach (IRIS) For lung cancer: RR = 1 + K L *Cumulative Exposure where K L = 0.01, the increase in RR risk of lung cancer per f/cc year of cumulative exposure. Therefore, at RR =2, ARF = 50%, for example, a 100 f/cc year asbestos lung cancer standard would be appropriate (~ 2 f/cc for 45 year exposure)
20 Mesothelioma Amphibole Example, Berman and Crump (2008b, For Mesothelioma, the risk equation is somewhat more complex and relies on lifetables: Assuming: A lifetime mesothelioma background incidence of 70 per million Exposure starts at age 18 and lasts for 45 years An exposure of f/cc years yields a RR of 2, ARF of 50%. This is equivalent to an average occupational amphibole exposure of only f/cc!
21 3. Cost-Benefit Approach
22 Where is the Acceptable Risk Level?
23 Mathematical Model of Acceptable Risk Exposure Level RT =α BC MR/(LE *GDP), where RT is a risk tolerance level, α Coefficient (or elasticity of the risk acceptability), BC Background concentration of the parameter of interest, MR Background mortality rate or incidence of disease, LE Life expectancy, GDP Gross domestic product per capita.
24 Illustration for Mesothelioma: Negligible and Acceptable Risk Levels RT n =LCL(α BC MR/(LE *GDP), 5 %) negligible risk RT a =UCL(α BC MR/(LE *GDP), 95 %) acceptable risk where RT is a risk acceptability threshold (excess mesothelioma cases per 1,000,000 per year), α coefficient, BC background exposure to asbestos, considering indoor and outdoor fraction (f/cc), MR background mortality rate of mesothelioma (cases per 1,000,000 per year), LE life expectancy (years), GDP gross domestic product per capita (thousands $).
25 Modeling of Current Risk Acceptability Threshold
26 It means that If we can tolerate risk of 1,000 cases per 1,000,000, negligible risk will be 10 cases per 1,000,000.
27 Rule of Thumb? Negligible risk level is 1 % of tolerable risk level
28 Approach 4. Life Expectancy as a Metric
29 Life Expectancy Criteria We can assume, for example, that risk is acceptable if ΔLE < 0.01 % LE (where LE life expectancy of exposed population, ΔLE absolute value of life expectancy decrease because of a risk factor in that population)
30 Life Expectancy Decrease for Different Levels of Cumulative Exposure (Nicholson, 1986 Model, 2009 Lifetables) Cumulative Exposure, PCM fibers, f/cc years Life Expectancy Decrease (45 years of Occupational Exposure, Started at Age of 18 Years ) Years % , , , ,924 Excess Cancer Risk, per 1,000,000
31 Life Expectancy Decrease for Different Levels of Exposure Intensity(Nicholson,1986 Model, Lifetables 2009)
32 Conclusions and Opinions There is no unified approach to determination of acceptable risk level Risk communication method probably more important than exact method Risk based standards are preferable to more arbitrary standards However, other factors, such as cost benefit analysis need to be incorporated, especially in third world countries.
Influence of Fiber Type, Size, and Number in Human Disease: Conclusions from Fiber Burden Analysis Andrew Churg, MD Department of Pathology University of British Columbia Vancouver, BC, Canada Techniques,
Asbestos & Cancer: An Update Suresh H. Moolgavkar, M.D., Ph.D. Fiber Type and Cancer Epidemiological data clearly indicate that not all fiber types have the same potency as carcinogens. With respect to
EFFECT OF CHILDREN'S AGE AND LIFE EXPECTATION ON MESOTHELIOMA RISK 1 Robin Howie 2, Robin Howie Associates, Edinburgh It is generally accepted that the major risk from "low" level exposures to asbestos
Scientific Update on Safe Use of Asbestos Robert P. Nolan, PhD International Environmental Research Foundation New York, New York www.ierfinc.org When We Talk about Asbestos What Do We Mean? Anthophyllite
Comments of Professor Richard Wilson Department of Physics & Center for Risk Analysis Harvard University Cambridge, Massachusetts On the Proposed Asbestos Ban Senate Employment and Workplace Safety Subcommittee
(1) Comparison of studies with different follow-up periods Is the absolute potency of amphiboles and relative potency of chrysotile underestimated because of studies with substantially incomplete follow-up?
Update of the scientific evidence on asbestos and cancer Kurt Straif, MD MPH PhD International Agency for Research on Cancer Lyon, France World Health Organisation Asturias, 17 March 2011 The IARC Monographs
Asbestos Health Risks Dr Andrew Pengilley Acting Chief Health Officer Asbestos Asbestos is a name given to several different fibrous minerals Three main commercial types are Chrysotile (white asbestos)
WATCH/2008/7 Annex 1 The risks of mesothelioma and lung cancer in relation to relatively lowlevel exposures to different forms of asbestos What statements can reliably be made about risk at different exposure
Health Effects of Asbestos Exposure Jill Dyken, PhD, PE John Wheeler, PhD, DABT Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry Asbestos Science Seminar Folsom, California August 18-19, 2004 Agency for
WATCH/2007/8 Annex 3 The quantitative risks of mesothelioma and lung cancer in relation to asbestos exposure a comparison of risk models based on asbestos exposed cohorts Introduction and aims 1. In 2000,
The Burden of Occupational Lung Cancer Paul A. Demers, PhD February 24 th, 2014 Measuring the Impact (burden) of Occupational Cancer Number or proportion of cancer deaths Number or proportion of new cancers
Page 1 of 6 skip navigational links This is an archive page. The links are no longer being updated. Statement by Gregory R. Wagner, M.D. Director, Division of Respiratory Disease Studies National Institute
Mesothelioma Trends as Predictors of the Asbestos- Related Lung Cancer Burden Valerie McCormack UICC World Cancer Congress Montreal August 2012 Outline Background Estimating the lung cancer mortality burden
ANNEX 2: Assessment of the 7 points agreed by WATCH as meriting attention (cover paper, paragraph 9, bullet points) by Andy Darnton, HSE The 7 issues to be addressed outlined in paragraph 9 of the cover
Review of Eliminating occupational cancer in Europe and globally by J. Takala There primary concerns of this manuscript are outlined below. More detail discussion of these points is presented on the following
Changing Trends in Mesothelioma Incidence Hans Weill, M.D. Professor of Medicine Emeritus Tulane University Medical Center International Conference on Chrysotile Montreal, May 23, 2006 Global Mesothelioma
Elimination of Asbestos- Related Diseases WHO action Dr Ivan D. Ivanov Public Health and Environment WHO Headquarters Worldwide 125 million people are exposed to asbestos (mostly chrysotile) 75 million
Science-Based Facts Relevant Health Issues 2015 For environmental occupational health safe and responsible use SCIENCE-BASED FACTS AND RELEVANT HEALTH ISSUES 2015 ON THE DIFFERENT ASBESTOS FIBER TYPES:
Comments of Professor Richard Wilson Department of Physics & Center for Risk Analysis Harvard University Cambridge, Massachusetts On the Proposed Asbestos Ban Senate Employment and Workplace Safety Subcommittee
Naturally Occurring Asbestos (NOA) General Overview Lee R. Shull PhD Health, Ecology and Risk Practice MWH Global Sacramento, CA CASH NOA Workshop January 24, 2006 Presentation Outline Brief background
Lung cancer and asbestos Bureau Veritas Training Bill Sanderson For the benefit of business and people To begin with.. There are known knowns, that is there are things we know that we know. There are known
Facilities Operations and Development Environmental Health & Safety 1314 Kinnear Rd. Columbus, Ohio 43212 Phone (614) 292-1284 Fax (614) 292-6404 http://fod.osu.edu The Ohio State University Asbestos Management
Estimates of the impact of extending the scope of the Mesothelioma payment scheme December 2013 Contents Introduction... 6 Background... 7 Estimated volumes and costs if the scheme started on particular
STANDARDS Toxic and Hazardous Substances, Title 29 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 1910.1001, Subpart Z Asbestos 1. INTRODUCTION IWU has a responsibility to provide a safe environment for students,
Asbestos General information Key Points Fire Non flammable and non combustible under normal conditions Chemically inert under normal conditions. Resistant to most solvents, acids and alkalis In the event
Asbestos at the Work Site Asbestos is a naturally occurring mineral. The most commonly used types of asbestos are named chrysotile, amosite and crocidolite. Asbestos has been and continues to be used in
ALBERT EINSTEIN COLLEGE of MEDICINE of YESHIVA UNIVRESITY Substance: Asbestos CAS Registry Number: 1332-21-4 ASBESTOS AWARENESS TRAINING Synonyms: chrysotile, amosite (cummingtonite-grunerite), actinolite,
categories Agudo et al. (2000) Barcelona and Cadiz, Spain 32 cases (77% males) of histologically con rmed malignant pleural mesothelioma identified from hospital in the region between //993 and 2/3/996.
ASBESTOS Know what it is and how you can protect yourself environmental affairs Department: Environmental Affairs REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA 1 What is asbestos? The term asbestos designates a group of naturally
Asbestos Prepared by: Penny Digby Principal Adviser (Occupational Health) Workplace Health and Safety Queensland Part 1. Overview types history respiratory system and defence mechanisms asbestos related
Asbestos and Mesothelioma a briefing document for the Metropolitan Police Prepared by Professor John Cherrie, Heriot Watt University, Edinburgh, UK. Introduction The purpose of this document is to provide
Endereço eletrônico http://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/asbestos/asbestos_whatis.html Search Index Home Glossary Contact Us CONTENTS Asbestos What Is Asbestos? Polarized Light Microscopy Slide of Asbestos Fibers.
Asbestos and Mesothelioma in Ontario May 29, 2010 CARWH Conference: Worker Health in a Changing world of work Loraine Marrett, PhD Outline Part I: Asbestos & its uses Part II: Asbestos & cancer Part III:
WATCH/2008/5 Annex 1 Asbestos : Revising the overall summary analysis of cohorts Approach 2 Introduction and summary This annex sets out the results of work on Approach 2 as set out in The risks of lung
IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE EASTERN DISTRICT OF PENNSYLVANIA IN RE: ASBESTOS PRODUCTS : LIABILITY LITIGATION (No. VI) : X This Document Relates To: : CONSOLIDATED UNDER : MDL 875 RICHARD
ASBESTOS AWARENESS Asbestos Awareness Asbestos is a serious health hazard commonly found in our environment today. This module is designed to provide initial education of asbestos and its associated hazards.
ASBESTOS IN SOIL AND MADE GROUND What is Asbestos? The word "asbestos" comes from the Greek meaning "inextinguishable." Asbestos is a serious health hazard commonly found in our environment today. Projects
Asbestos Control Programs Effective: September 2000 Vice-President, Finance and Administration Applicable Legislation: Occupational Health and Safety (OHSA), R.S.O. 1990 O.Reg 837, R.R.O. 1990, Designated
Asbestos and Health WHO recommendations on elimination of asbestos-related diseases Background World Health Assembly Resolution 58.22 from 2005 on Cancer Prevention and Control Countries should pay special
Your Guide to Asbestos Related Disease Claims www.colemans-ctts.co.uk firstname.lastname@example.org 100 Talbot Road, Stretford, Manchester M16 0PG 1-3 Union Street, Kingston-Upon-Thames, Surrey KT1 1RP
Understanding Asbestos: Implications for the Individual and the Community Development Practitioner By Eric Fortner, Project Consultant email@example.com June 2014 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Asbestos is
April 2011 Asbestos in the university and higher education sector Contents Introduction... 1 Executive summary... 1 Background to asbestos... 2 Closer look: Research report results, and their impact on
Fact Sheet on Asbestos WHAT IS ASBESTOS? Asbestos is a naturally occurring mineral found in certain rock formations, mined from open pit mines. Most of the asbestos used in the United States today comes
Asbestos Presence in a Factory that Produced Asbestos-Containing Products Hana Fajkovi Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Horvatovac 95, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia, e-mail: (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Asbestos in the Home MISAWA AB, JAPAN Asbestos Awareness OCCUPANT ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF INFORMATION SIGNATURE UNIT NUMBER DATE Prepared by: 35 CES/CEV If you have further question about location of asbestos
Worldwide mesothelioma mortality trends Harvard Symposium 24 th July 2009 Julian Peto London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Institute of Cancer Research Asbestos-related diseases Asbestosis
Technical Guidance for the Calculation of Asbestos Related Risk in Soils for the Basic Management Incorporated (BMI) Complex and Common Areas Prepared For: Nevada Division of Environmental Protection Bureau
Asbestos - Frequently Asked Questions 1. What is asbestos? Asbestos is the name given to a group of fibrous minerals which occur naturally in the earth. These are grouped into two mineral types known as
Update 1 st August 2011 INCREASED VULNERABILITY OF CHILDREN TO ASBESTOS The Precautionary Principle 1. For at least forty years warnings have been given to successive Governments that children are more
The British Occupational Hygiene Society Faculty of Occupational Hygiene INTERNATIONAL MODULE SYLLABUS W504 ASBESTOS AND OTHER FIBRES Aim: Learning Outcomes: This module enhances the student s knowledge
University of Nevada, Reno ASBESTOS AWARENESS TRAINING PROGRAM For workers and building occupants John A Braun, CSP Asbestos Awareness OSHA Standards for Asbestos are: 29 CFR 1910.1001 applies to all occupational
The Administration of Norfolk Island SAFE DISPOSAL OF ASBESTOS AT THE WASTE MANAGEMENT CENTRE The purpose of this document is to provide guidance on the safe removal and disposal of asbestos and asbestos-containing
Page 1 of 15 October 30th, 2003 Risk assessment for asbestos-related cancer from the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center Robert P. Nolan, Malcolm Ross, Gordon L. Nord, Charles W. Axten, Jeffrey P. Osleeb,
582 THE APPLICATION OF A MATHEMATICAL MODEL DESCRIBING THE TIMES OF OCCURRENCE OF MESOTHELIOMAS IN RATS FOLLOWING INOCULATION WITH ASBESTOS G. BERRY AND J. C. WAGNER From the Medical Research Council's
Asbestos Hazards and Controls Environmental and Occupational Health Public Health Ontario Photo provided with the kind permission of Infrastructure Health & Safety Association 5110 Creekbank Road, Mississauga,
Toxicity of Amphibole Asbestos Disclaimer: The material presented in these slides has been reviewed by the U.S. EPA and approved for presentation. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily
Mesothelioma in Australia: Incidence (1982 to 213) and Mortality (1997 to 212) 215 Disclaimer The information provided in this document can only assist you in the most general way. This document does not
ASBESTOS AWARENESS For workers and building occupants Asbestos Awareness Asbestos is a serious health hazard commonly found in our environment today. This module is designed to provide an overview of asbestos
THEORIES FOR THE REDUCTION OF DAMAGES By Steven Wright Brita J. Forssberg SYNERGISM Effect of cigarette smoking is greater than that of asbestos. Synergism Synergism Lung cancer incidence rates, expressed
Incorrect Analyses of Radiation and Mesothelioma in the U.S. Transuranium and Uranium Registries Joey Zhou, Ph.D. At the Annual Meeting of the Health Physics Society July 15, 2014 in Baltimore A recently
Revision 3 JUNE 1999 REGULATORY GUIDE 8.13 (Draft was issued as DG-8014) INSTRUCTION CONCERNING PRENATAL RADIATION EXPOSURE A. INTRODUCTION The Code of Federal Regulations in 10 CFR Part 19, Notices, Instructions
Attributable fraction: example, cancers due to occupation in the US Kyle Steenland Rollins School Public Health Emory University, Atlanta, Ga Definition The population attributable fraction (AF) estimates
NISG Asbestos Caroline Kirton 1 The Control of Asbestos Regulations 2012, Regulation 10 requires every employer to ensure that adequate information, instruction and training is given to their employees
All About Asbestos Read this booklet to learn more about: identifying asbestos-containing material in you home the health risks of asbestos what you can do about asbestos. What Is Asbestos? Asbestos is
Dose conversion factors for radon James Marsh, John Harrison, Margot Tirmarche, Dominique Laurier, Eric Blanchardon and François Paquet HEIR, New Mexico, May 2009 ICRP C1-task group 64 Headed by Margot
Asbestos Lessons learned from the EU Alexandra Caterbow, Coordinator Chemicals and Health Women in Europe for a Common Future Ukrainian citizens believe their asbestos is safe WECF discovered with shock
334 Asbestos-Related Lung Cancer and Malignant Mesothelioma of the Pleura: Selected Current Issues Steven Markowitz, MD, DrPH 1 1 Barry Commoner Center for Health and the Environment, Queens College, City
Asbestos: health effects and risk Peter Franklin Senior Scientific Officer, EHD Senior Research Fellow, UWA What is asbestos Naturally occurring mineral that has crystallised to form long thin fibres and
Iran. J. Environ. Health. Sci. Eng., 21, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 165-172 PREDICTION OF CANCER MORTALITY BY EVALUATION OF ASBESTOS FIBERS CONCENTRATIONS IN AN ASBESTOS-CEMENT PRODUCTS FACTORY 1 M. J. Jafari,
Web Search : Search Engines only take you to the start of a long paper. To go to exactly the right page: at the top of this screen click edit then click search. Fill in the phrase or words you want and
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike License. Your use of this material constitutes acceptance of that license and the conditions of use of materials on this
$9.99 Protect Your Family From Asbestos-Contaminated Vermiculite I M P O R T A N T! Vermiculite Can Be Dangerous If Not Managed Properly The Most Common Sources of Asbestos Exposure: Workplace exposure
Asbestos Awareness at the University of Toronto What is Asbestos? Asbestos is a general term given to a group of naturally occurring mineral silicates that are made up of long thin fibres. These fibrous
596500SJP0010.1177/1403494815596500B. Järvholm and A. BurdorfAsbestos ban reduces mesothelioma incidence research-article2015 Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, 1 7 Original Article Emerging evidence
C162 Asbestos Convention, 1986 Convention concerning Safety in the Use of Asbestos (Note: Date of coming into force: 16:06:1989.) Convention:C162 Place:Geneva Session of the Conference:72 Date of adoption:24:06:1986
FREEPHONE: 0800 059 9112 EMAIL: email@example.com Asbestos Awareness Toolbox Talk ASBESTOS AWARENESS Why is it a Problem Asbestos was extensively used as a building material in the UK from the
1 Risk Anal. 2004 Jun;24(3):547-52. Related Articles, Links Mesothelioma among brake mechanics: an expanded analysis of a casecontrol study. Hessel PA, Teta MJ, Goodman M, Lau E. Exponent, Wood Dale, IL
Estimation of the Number of Lung Cancer Cases Attributable to Asbestos Exposure BC Asbestos Statistics Approximately 55,000 BC men and women exposed in 1971 in high exposed industries Significant exposure