1 Dynamic Macroeconomics I Introduction to Real Business Cycle Theory Lorenza Rossi University of Pavia these slides are based on my Course of Advanced Macroeconomics II held at UPF and bene t of the work done by Jordi Gali in preparing his course of Macroeconomia Avanzada II at UPF.
2 Outline Business Cycle De nition and Facts Measuring Business Cycle Introduction: Lucas methodological proposal The Real Business Cycle Theory 1 Data: measuring the business cycle 2 The Basic Real business cycle model 3 The solution of DSGE models: the Blanchard-Khan method 4 Matching moments: Simulations with dynare codes Evaluation of the RBC approach: the debate over RBC theory
3 Evidence - US
4 Evidence - US
5 Evidence - US
6 Evidence - US
7 Evidence - Euro Area
8 Evidence - Euro Area
9 Evidence - Euro Area
10 Evidence - Euro Area
11 De nition of Business Cycle Burns and Mitchel De nition (1946) - "Measuring Business Cycle" NBER Business cycles are a type of uctuation found in the aggregate economic activity of nations that organize their work mainly in business enterprises: a cycle consists of expansions occurring at the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general recessions, contractions and revivals which merge into the expansion phase of the next cycle; this sequence of changes is recurrent but not periodic; in duration, business cycles vary from more than one year to ten or twelve years; they are not divisible into shorter cycles of similar character with amplitudes approximating their own.
12 De nition of Business Cycle Economy-wide uctuations in economic activity around its long-term growth trend. Expansions and contractions Economic variables show comovements Important to take into account possible leads and lags in timing wrt. real GDP The business cycle is recurrent, but not periodic: it doesn t occur at regular, predictable intervals The business cycle is persistent Since BC is persistent is important to study what causes BC and the possible policies ( scal or monetary) useful to stabilize the economy
13 De nition of Business Cycle Two key features 1 The comovement among individual economic variables (GDP, industrial production, uneployment, hours...). 2 The division of business cycles into separate phases: Expansions and Contractions
14 Business Cycle: Expansions and Contractions
15 Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions After a trough, activity increases in an expansion or boom until it reaches a peak Business cycle: the sequence from one peak to the next, or from one trough to the next Peaks and troughs are turning points NBER for US and CEPR for EU are responsible for dating turning points and business cycle.
16 Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions All business cycles are characterized by common features, as for example the cyclical behavior of economic variables in terms of direction and timing with respect to aggregate economic activity Y. Direction: Timing: Procyclical: in the same direction of Y Countercyclical: in the opposite direction of Y Acyclical: with no clear pattern Leading Lagging Coincident
17 Recession Dating - NBER A recession is a signi cant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real gross domestic product (GDP), real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak: an expansion. Expansion is the normal state; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades. Because a recession in uences the economy broadly and is not con ned to one sector, the committee emphasizes economy-wide measures of economic activity. The committee views real GDP as the single best measure of aggregate economic activity. The committee therefore places considerable weight on the estimates of real GDP issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
18 Recession Dating - NBER The traditional role of the committee is to maintain a monthly chronology, however, and the BEA s real GDP estimates are only available quarterly. For this reason, the committee refers to a variety of monthly indicators to choose the exact months of peaks and troughs. It places particular emphasis on two monthly measures of activity across the entire economy: (1) personal income less transfer payments, in real terms and (2) employment. Also: (3) industrial production and (4) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors adjusted for price changes. The committee also looks at monthly estimates of real GDP such as those prepared by Macroeconomic Advisers (see Nevertheless, there is no xed rule about which other measures contribute information to the process.
19 Business Cycle Cronology - US Turning points are o cially designated by the NBER
20 Business Cycle Cronology - US
21 Business Cycle Cronology - EU Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) - - quarterly cronology Euro Area - recession: signi cant decline in the level of economic activities in th Euro Area. Two or three consecutive months in which GDP, employment etc decrease in the EU area, and showing a similar pattern in most countries - Four cycles since Last cycle: "peak": 2008Q1, "trough": 2009Q2, - Actual recession: "peak" 2011Q3 ("trough"?) - EuroCoin Indicator (CEPR): monthly coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle available in real time
22 EuroCoin - Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) EuroCoin Indicator (CEPR): monthly coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle available in real time. The indicator provides an estimate of the monthly growth of euro area GDP after the removal of: measurement errors; seasonal and other short-run uctuations. idiosyncratic components. The indicator aims to capture only common components of EU area BC The indicator is available very quickly, before the GDP numbers are released
23 EuroCoin - Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) What data was used to produce EuroCOIN? The database used to construct EuroCOIN is organized into eleven blocks: industrial production, producer prices, consumer prices, monetary aggregates, interest rates, nancial variables, exchange rates, surveys by the European Commission, surveys by national institutes, external trade, labour markets More information: SLIDES on EuroCoin prepared by Cepr:
24 EuroCoin - Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
25 EuroCoin - Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
26 Important Questions Which are the main features, or stylized facts, of business cycle? Are business cycle alike across time and countries Which sources? Which propagation mechanisms? Which is the role played by macroeconomic policies: monetary and scal policies? Are they stabilizing? Is it important to stabilize the business cycle? Which are the implication of the stabilization policies in terms of welfare? Is there a macro-economic model able to reproduce the main features of the business cycle?
27 Measuring Business Cycle Given a time series y 1, y 2, y 3,..., y T () fy t g Each series can be decomposed in two parts: trend and cycle z t : long-run trend x t: : cyclical component y t = z t + x t The cyclical component is stationary. To get the cyclical component we need to transform data into mean-zero covariance stationary stochastic processes E fx t g = µ (usually with µ = 0) E f(x t µ)(x t k µ)g = γ (k) < t, per k = 1, 2, 3...
29 Measuring Business Cycle: Traditional decomposition Traditional Business Cycle Theory: output trend z t evolves smoothly over time, z t = α 0 + α 1 t or Estimation z t = α 0 + α 1 t + α 2 t 2 + α 3 t α q t q T min fa 0,α 1 g t=1 [y t (α 0 + α 1 t)] 2 Cycles are viewed as deviation from trends, i.e. bx t = y t bz t where bz t is the estimated value of z t. Limits: eliminating a deterministic trend is not su cient to stationarize the series if the series has a unit root.
30 Measuring Business Cycle: Linear Trend
31 Measuring Business Cycle: RBC decomposition Nelson and Plosser (JME 1982): many macroeconomic variables have a unit root. RBC Theory: cycles can be explained also assuming that z t evolves according to a random walk, i.e., z t = b + z t 1 + u t. In this case much of the movements in y t are due to movements in z t and rather then to trend deviations y t z t Notice that (z t ) = z t z t 1 = b + u t is stationary: we say it is di erence stationary (DS). Limits: to much weight is attached to high frequencies (quarter to quarter) that are not related to cycles
32 Hodrick-Prescott and Band Pass Filter Starting point: the trend z t must follow the observed data y t closely. =) The trend should not uctuate widly from quarter to quarter. They infer the trend from the following minimisation problem: min fz t g T t=1 T (y t z t ) 2 + λ t=1 T 1 [(z t+1 z t ) (z t z t 1 )] 2 t=2 The rst part ensures that the trend component tracks the data fairly well. The constraint prevents the change in the trend being too volatile. The larger λ the smoother the changes in the growth of the trend have to be.
33 Hodrick-Prescott and Band Pass Filter min fz t g T t=1 T (y t z t ) 2 + λ t=1 T 1 [(z t+1 z t ) (z t z t 1 )] 2 t=2 The larger λ the smoother the changes in the growth of the trend have to be. λ!! z t = α 0 + α 1 t λ! 0! z t = y t HP suggest a value of λ = 1600 for quarterly data. Advantages: exibility to capture changes in trend Critics: the choice of λ should vary from variable to variable.
34 Hodrick-Prescott Filter
35 Hodrick-Prescott Filter
36 Band Pass Filter - Baxter and King (Restat 1999) This lter allows to choose the frequency range associated with the cyclical component. Conventional Range: between 6 and 32 quarters.
37 Using Alternative Filters Macroeconomic series re ect di erent components - an underlying trend, the business cycle component, seasonality, as well as purely random uctuations. One can use hundreds of di erent ltering methods Unfortunately we can never with complete certainty claim that one lter is better than another. Ideally, the cyclical component extracted from any dataset should not vary greatly between di erent lters. However, this is not the case.
38 Comparing Alternative Filters
39 Comparing Alternative Filters
40 BC Statistics fx t g: stationary and with zero mean:. Volatility! Standard Deviation: σ(x t ) p (1/T ) x 2 t Persistence! autocorrelation: ρ(x t, x t 1 ) cov (x t,x t 1 ) σ 2 (x t ) cov(x t, x t 1 ) (1/T ) x t x t 1 Cyclicality! correlation with cyclical component of real GDP: ρ(x t, y t ) cov (x t,y t ) σ(x t )σ(y t ) or cov(x t, y t ) (1/T ) x t y t the variable can be: procyclical (+), countercyclical ( ), o acyclical (' 0) on
41 BC Statistics Table 1: Statistical Properties of the U.S. Business Cycle HP-Filtered (1600), 1948Q1-2013Q3 σ(bx σ(bx t ) t ) σ(by t ρ(bx ) t, bx t 1 ) ρ(bx t, by t ) GDP Consumption Investment Gov.Purchases Hours Worked Labor Prod TFP Real Wage Real Int. Rate (1)
43 BC Statistics Table 2: Statistical Properties of the Euro Area Business Cycle HP-Filtered (1600), 1970Q1-2012Q4 σ(bx σ(bx t ) t ) σ(by t ρ(bx ) t, bx t 1 ) ρ(bx t, by t ) GDP Consumption Investment Gov.Purchases Employment Labor Productivity TFP Real Wage Real Int. Rate
44 BC Statistics Table 3: Statistical Properties of the U.S. Business Cycle BP-Filtered (6,32), 1948Q1-2012Q3 σ(bx σ(bx t ) t ) σ(by t ρ(bx ) t, bx t 1 ) ρ(bx t, by t ) GDP Consumption Investment Gov. Spend Hours Labor Prod TFP Real Wage Real Int. Rate
45 BC Statistics Table 4: Statistical Properties of the Euro Area Business Cycle BP-Filtered (6,32), 1970Q1-2012Q4 σ(bx σ(bx t ) t ) σ(by t ρ(bx ) t, bx t 1 ) ρ(bx t, by t ) GDP Consumption Investment Gov.Purchases Employment Labor Prod TFP Real Wage Real Int. Rate
46 Stylized Facts 1 Consumption is procyclical and less volatile than output 2 Durable goods consumption is more volatile than non-durable goods consumption 3 Investment are more volatile than output 4 Hours and employment are almost as volatile as output 5 Wages are slightly procyclical or acyclical 6 Productivity: procyclical and less volatile than output
47 Stylized Facts
48 International Business Cycle?
49 International Business Cycle?
50 International Business Cycle?
51 International Business Cycle?
52 International Business Cycle?
53 International Business Cycle: Euro Area versus US
54 Business Cycle Changes over time Ahmed et al. 2004
55 Business Cycle Changes over tim Table 5: Changes in the U.S. Business Cycle (HP-Filter) Ratio Ratio (1) (2) (2)/(1) (3) (3)/(1) GDP Consumption Invest Gov.Purchases Hours Aver.Lab Prod TFP Real Wage Real Int. Rate
56 Business Cycle Changes over time Table 6: Changes in the Euro Area Business Cycle (HP-Filter) Ratio Ratio (1) (2) (2)/(1) (3) (3)/(1) GDP Consumption Investment Gov.Purchases Employment Ave.Lab. Prod TFP Real Wage Real Int. Rate
57 Business Cycle Changes over time Possible explanations of the Great Moderation a) sectoral composition: manifacturing versus services b) Role played by the Government: - aggregate demand - automatic stabilizers - countercyclical policies c) more exible labor market d) role of nancial market and crisis (deposits insurance, the LLR) g) "Good Policies, Good Practices or Good Luck?"
58 TRADITIONAL BUSINESS CYCLE THEORY: output trend Ȳ t evolves smoothly over time, Ȳ t = a + bt. Cycles are viewed as deviation from trends, i.e. Y t Ȳ t RBC THEORY: cycles can be explained also assuming that Ȳ t evolves according to a random walk, i.e., Ȳ t = b + Ȳ t 1 + u t. In this case much of the movements in Y t are due to movements in Ȳ t and rather then to trend deviations Y t Ȳ t
59 The Lucas Research Program and Methodological Proposal Lucas ( 76, 77, 80, 87). Two important references: 1 Lucas, R.E., 1976, Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 1, pp Lucas, R.E., 1987, Models of Business Cycles, 1985 Yrjö Jahnsson Lectures, Basil Blackwell, Oxford. The Lucas critique: Macroeconomists should build so-called structural models, i.e. models that are based on microeconomics foundations, maximizing households and rms, exible prices/wages, market clearing, etc. 1 Microeconomic foundations 2 General Equilibrium 3 Rational Expectations 4 No distinction between micro and macro: Economic theory
60 The Lucas Research Program and Methodological Proposal CONCLUSIONS Modern macroeconomics should employ dynamic general equilibrium models (DSGE), that is, a macroeconomic model should be the results of the solution of dynamic optimization problems under uncertainty by optimizing agents populating the model economy. Build a "laboratory economy": much more di cult task than old Keynesian theorizing Kydland & Prescott (1982) accepted the challenge posed by Lucas: they built the rst Real Business Cycle (RBC) model.
61 Basic RBC model Outline of the RBC methodology: a discrete-time stochastic model of the economy populated by maximizing households and rms MAIN SOURCE OF FLUCTUATIONS: The erratic nature of technological progress
62 MAIN RESULT AND FIRST INTUITION There is only one nal good in the economy which is produced according to a constant return to scale (CRS) production function Y t = A t F (K t 1, N t ) where ln(a t /A) = â t is an exogenous process of technological progress (or total factor productivity TFP), which evolves according to: ln(a t /A) = ρ a ln(a t /A) + ε a,t, ε a,t WN 0, σ 2 a i.i.d. A positive shock to the TFP shifts rms labor demand and the AS curve Movements in employment and economic activity are seen as the e cient responses of a perfectly competitive economy to a productivity shock. =) Movements from a Walrasian equilibrium to another one.
63 POSITIVE TECHNOLOGY SHOCK
64 MAIN RESULTS OF RBC THEORY Money short-run and long run neutrality =) classical dichotomy Fluctuations of all variable (output, consumption, employment, investment...) are the optimal responses to exogenous changes in the economic environment (technology shocks, government spending shocks) Shocks are not always desirable. But once they occur, uctuations in output, employment, consumption and other variables are the optimal responses to them!! Stabilization Policies are not necessaty
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Page 1 of 6 This report is also available as a PDF file. Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met