1 TOPIC 1: Introduction, definitions, measures Annaïg Morin CBS - Department of Economics August 2013
2 What is macroeconomics about? Understanding the behavior of an economy as a whole. studying aggregated indicators Taking both a national/regional perspective (closed economy) and an integrated perspective (open economy) Examining many markets (goods, financial, labor), separately and together Looking at what is happening in the short run... Business cycle, some economic policies (fiscal policy, monetary policy...), etc... and in the long run (even though In the long run, we are all dead Keynes) Trend, some economic policies (education, competitiveness, labor market...), etc
3 Why should we care about macroeconomics? For firms: Importance of knowing the economic situation of a region/country Importance of anticipating and assessing government policies that might impact the economic situation of a region/country For everyone: Importance of understanding the world we live in.
5 TOPIC 1: Introduction, definitions, measures Introduction, definitions, measures 1. Aggregate output 1.1. National accounts 1.2. GDP vs. GNP 1.3. Nominal vs. Real GDP 1.4. PPP adjusted GDP 2. HDI 3. Unemployment rate 3.1. Definition 3.2. Who are the unemployed? 3.3. Why to look at the UR? 4. Inflation rate 4.1. How to define the price level? GDP deflator CPI 4.2. Evolution of the inflation rate 5. Trend and Business cycle 5.1. GDP 5.2. Cyclical properties Unemployment Employment Inflation Imports Pro/countercyclical
6 1. Aggregate output 1. Aggregate output 1.1. National accounts 1.2. GDP vs. GNP 1.3. Nominal vs. Real GDP 1.4. PPP adjusted GDP
7 1. Aggregate output Macroeconomics: Understanding the behavior of an economy as a whole How to assess the situation of a country? Most important macroeconomic variables: GDP (Gross Domestic Product): measure of aggregate output GDP per Capita: proxy of the welfare per person
8 1.1. Aggregate output - National accounts National accounts: implementation of accounting techniques for measuring the economic activity of a nation. How to measure GDP? How is GDP constructed? 3 methods: M1. GDP is the value of the final goods and services produced in the economy during a given period. M2. GDP is the sum of value added in the economy during a given period. M3. GDP is the sum of incomes (wages, profits and taxes) in the economy during a given period.
9 1.1. Aggregate output - National accounts Figure: Decomposition of GDP
10 1.1. Aggregate output - National accounts, example Consider an economy composed of only three firms: firms A, B and C. Firms A takes wood in the forest at no cost and produces planks out of this wood. Firms B, a manufacturing company, buys these planks from firm A and produces wardrobes. These wardrobes are sold to firm C, a retailer firm. Firms Quantity Price Wages Profits Firm A 100 planks Firm B 10 wardrobes Firm C 10 wardrobes What is the GDP of this economy?
11 1.1. Aggregate output - National accounts, example Firms Quantity Price Wages Profits Firm A 100 planks Firm B 10 wardrobes Firm C 10 wardrobes M1: GDP is the value of the final goods and services produced in the economy during a given period. GDP = 10*250 = 2500
12 1.1. Aggregate output - National accounts, example Firms Quantity Price Wages Profits Firm A 100 planks Firm B 10 wardrobes Firm C 10 wardrobes M2: GDP is the sum of value added in the economy during a given period. What does value added mean? Value added: value of the production minus value of the intermediate goods that are used in production.
13 1.1. Aggregate output - National accounts, example Firms Quant Price Val of prod Interm costs Wages Profits Firm A 100 planks Firm B 10 wardrobes Firm C 10 wardrobes M2: GDP = (1200-0) + ( ) + ( ) GDP = = 2500
14 1.1. Aggregate output - National accounts, example Firms Quantity Price Wages Profits Firm A 100 planks Firm B 10 wardrobes Firm C 10 wardrobes M3: GDP is the sum of incomes (wages, profits and taxes) in the economy during a given period. GDP = wages in all firms + profits in all firms + taxes GDP = ( ) + ( ) + 0 = 2500 NB: in case the profit is not given, it can be calculated: Profits = revenues - intermediate goods purchases - wages - taxes
15 1.1. Aggregate output - National accounts Technical considerations: The value of exports are included in the value of production. The value of imports must be deducted from the value of production. Taxes should be considered as an income (for the government).
16 1.2. Aggregate output - GDP vs. GNP GDP: is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. GNP: is the market value of all the products and services produced in one year by labor and property supplied by the residents of a country. is equal to GDP plus income earned by its citizens (including income of those located abroad), minus income of non-residents located in that country. Substantial difference between GDP & GNP in open economies.
17 1.3. Aggregate output - Nominal vs. Real GDP Nominal GDP: product of the quantities of final goods and their current prices (like in the wardrobe economy example). An increase in nominal GDP can come from both an increase in quantities and from an increase in prices. Important to disentangle the two drivers of the fluctuations in nominal GDP. Real GDP: product of the quantities of final goods and constant prices (reference year prices).
18 1.3. Aggregate output - Nominal vs. Real GDP, example Consider an economy with three goods only. Prices and quantities are the following: Quantities Prices Books Cars Bicycles Books Cars Bicycles What is the nominal GDP for both years and the real GDP for both years referring to 2011 as the base year? Nominal GDP 2011 = 15000*10+100* *100 = Nominal GDP 2012 = 16000*15+125* *104 = Real GDP 2011 = 15000*10+100* *100 = Real GDP 2012 = 16000*10+125* *100 =
19 1.3. Aggregate output - Nominal vs. Real GDP, example NB 1: By construction, nominal GDP = real GDP for the base year. NB 2: Growth rate nominal GDP=( )/ =35,05% Growth rate real GDP=( )/ =22,68% The real GDP growth rate is smaller than the nominal GDP growth rate if there is inflation.
20 1.3. Aggregate output - Nominal vs. Real GDP Which base year to choose? Lets calculate the growth rate of real GDP, taking 2012 as the base year. Real GDP 2011 = 15000*15+100* *104 = Real GDP 2012 = 16000*15+125* *104 = Growth rate real GDP=( )/ = 21,84% The choice of base year affects the levels and growth rate of real GDP. Bureau of Economic Analysis (US): method detailed in Chapter 2 Appendix.
21 1.3. Aggregate output - Nominal vs. Real GDP What increases faster: nominal or real GDP?
22 1.3. Aggregate output - Nominal vs. Real GDP
23 1.3. Aggregate output - Nominal vs. Real GDP Some vocabulary: Nominal GDP Dollar GDP GDP in current dollars Real GDP GDP in terms of goods GDP in constant dollars GDP adjusted for inflation GDP in 1996 dollars
24 1.4. Aggregate output - PPP adjusted GDP How to compare the GDPs of two countries when prices differ in these two countries? Using nominal GDP might lead to wrong conclusions due to the distortion created by price differentials. Needs to take these price differentials into account for international comparison of GDPs PPP adjusted GDP: we calculate real GDP using prices of a base country.
25 2. HDI 2. HDI
26 2. HDI Is GDP a good indicator of the standard of living of a country? Isn t it too narrow to only look at the output of a country? The United Nation developed an index called Human Development Index (HDI) that gathers information about: education life expectancy (proxy for health) GDP per capita It is a index between 0 and 1. It is a weighted average of the 3 components: broader measure, better assessment of human well-being.
27 2. HDI: HDI 2009 (Martin Lewis, UN data)
28 2. HDI: HDI and GDP per capita 2009 (Martin Lewis, UN data)
30 2. HDI HDI vs. GDP We do not loose much by focusing on GDP as the correlation between GDP and HDI is very high (around 0.85), which means that ordering countries based on HDI would give a very similar picture that ordering the countries based on GDP per capita.
31 3. Unemployment rate 3. Unemployment rate 3.1. Definition 3.2. Who are the unemployed? 3.3. Why to look at the UR?
32 3.1. Unemployment rate - Definition The GDP (and GDP per capita) is not the only variable under scrutiny. Another important variable is the unemployment rate. labor force = employed + unemployed unemployment rate = unemployed / labor force NB: the employment rate and the unemployment rate do not sum to 1. employment rate = employed / population population = labor force + out of the labor force
33 3.2. Unemployment rate - Who are the unemployed? In most countries, the criteria for being unemployed are not to have a job to be looking for a job An individual who has no job and is not looking for a job is classified as out of the labor force. The flows in and out the labor force should not be disregarded as they give a lot of information. For example, the flow out of the labor force generally increases in periods of recession as many discouraged individuals stop looking for jobs.
34 3.3. Unemployment rate - Why to look at the UR? The unemployment rate gives information on the level of activity. Negative relation between the unemployment rate and GDP per capita. Correlation =
35 3.3. Unemployment rate - Why to look at the UR? The unemployment rate gives information on the level of activity. Okun s law: Clear relation between the change in the unemployment rate and GDP growth. High output growth generally associated with a decrease in the unemployment rate. Low output growth generally associated with an increase in the unemployment rate. Intuition: High output growth, increase in production, more hiring, less unemployment.
36 3.3. Unemployment rate - Why to look at the UR? Okun s law. Source: Owyang and Sekhposyan 2012
37 3.3. Unemployment rate - Why to look at the UR? Social implications of unemployment: financial and psychological suffering, isolation... Unemployment negatively impacts well-being.
38 4. Inflation rate 4. Inflation rate 4.1. How to define the price level? GDP deflator CPI 4.2. Evolution of the inflation rate
39 4. Inflation rate Another macro variable often examined: the inflation rate. The inflation rate is the rate at which the price level increases. Why is it important to look at the inflation rate? In periods of inflation, not all wages rise proportionally. Some rise as much, some less, some much less, (few more!). Therefore, inflation modifies the structure on income and might lead to the impoverishment of some people. In periods of inflation, not all prices rise proportionally. It creates distortions and increases uncertainty. In periods of high inflation, the rate of inflation is often unpredictable by individuals. This increases uncertainty, makes investment decisions harder and therefore lowers investment.
40 4.1. Inflation - How to define the price level? Macroeconomists typically look at 2 measures of the price level: GDP deflator Consumer Price Index (CPI)
41 Inflation - GDP deflator Definition: GDP deflator = nominal GDP real GDP Therefore, when the price level is measured by the GDP deflator: Inflation rate = growth rate of the GDP deflator
42 Inflation - GDP deflator Lets consider again the economy we look at before, with prices and quantities being the following: Quantities Prices Books Cars Bicycles Books Cars Bicycles Nominal GDP 2011 = Nominal GDP 2012 = Real GDP 2011 = Real GDP 2012 = What is the inflation rate as defined by the growth rate of the GDP deflator? GDP deflator 2011 = 1 GDP deflator 2012 = / = 1,1008 The inflation rate is 10,08%.
43 Inflation - CPI The GDP deflator is the average price of the final goods produced in an economy. But consumers care more about the average price of consumed goods (which might differ from the produced ones). Macroeconomists constructed a Consumer Price Index (CPI) which gives the cost of a specific list of goods and services (representative of the consumption basket of a typical urban consumer). The CPI is set to 1 in the period chosen as the reference period. When the price level is measured by the CPI: Inflation rate = growth rate of the CPI
44 Inflation - CPI Lets consider again the same economy. Let say that the representative consumption basket is 10 books, one car and 2 bicycles is set to be the base year. Quantities Prices Books Cars Bicycles Books Cars Bicycles CPI 2011 = 1 CPI 2012 = Value of the consumption basket in 2012 / Value of the consumption basket in the base year CPI 2012 = [(10*15)+(1*10500)+(2*104)]/[(10*10)+(1*10000)+(2*100)]= The inflation rate is 5,42%.
45 3.2. The evolution of the inflation rate Source: Mankiw 2009
46 5. Trend and Business cycle 5. Trend and Business cycle 5.1. GDP 5.2. Cyclical properties Unemployment Employment Inflation Imports Pro/countercyclical
47 5. Trend and Business cycle 3 main variables of interest: Real GDP per capita Unemployment rate Inflation rate How do these variables evolve, in the short run and in the long run?
48 5.1. Trend and Business cycle - GDP
49 5.1. Trend and Business cycle - GDP It is important to disentangle the cyclical component from the trend. Why? different forces behind the slope of the trend and the cyclical movements.
50 5.1. Trend and Business cycle - GDP The business cycle is the upward and downward movements of levels of GDP and refers to the period of expansions and contractions in the level of economic activities (business fluctuations) around its long-term growth trend.
51 5.1. Trend and Business cycle - GDP In this course, we will mostly study what happens in the short run. Lets remove the trend. How? By looking only at the difference between the GDP series and the trend, or by looking at the GDP growth rate.
52 5.2. Trend and Business cycle - Cyclical properties In this course, we will mainly focus on the short run. In the short run, what matters are the cyclical movements of macroeconomic variables. The main variable under scrutiny is real GDP per capita because its cyclical movements define business cycles. How are the unemployment rate and the inflation rate related to the cyclical movements of GDP?
53 5.2. Trend and Business cycle - Cyclical properties Economic variables show comovement they have regular and predictable patterns of behavior over the course of the business cycle A variable is procyclical when its cyclical component is positively correlated with the cyclical component of GDP. That is, any quantity that tends to increase in periods of expansion and to decrease in periods of recessions is classified as procyclical. A variable is countercyclical when its cyclical component is negatively correlated with the cyclical component of GDP. A countercyclical economic indicator is one which cycle moves in the opposite direction as the business cycle. A variable is acyclical when it is not correlated with GDP.
54 Trend and Business cycle - Cyclical properties of unemployment
55 Trend and Business cycle - Cyclical properties of employment Source: FRB Philadelphia National Leading Index. GDP = Real GDP growth
56 Trend and Business cycle - Cyclical properties of inflation Shaded areas: recessions as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research
57 Trend and Business cycle - Cyclical properties of imports Imports and GDP. Percentage deviation from trend. Source: FRB Philadelphia
58 Trend and Business cycle - Pro/countercyclical Procyclical: Inflation Real consumer spending Investment Financial variables (stock and bond prices) Importations Employment... Countercyclical: Unemployment and unemployment rate...
59 Exercise - Calculating GDP Consider the following economy in which only two firms operate. The activities of the two firms can be summarized as follows: Firm A Costs Revenues Wages 120 Exports 110 Purchases from B 100 Sales to B 200 Sales to the public 600 Firm B Costs Revenues Wages 200 Sales to A 100 Purchases from A 200 Sales to public 400 Taxes 100 Compute GDP for this economy using the three possible definitions.
60 Exercise - Calculating inflation using the GDP deflator and the CPI A country produces the following final goods: bananas, mobile phones, and umbrellas. The statistics agency reports the following data: Year Products Quantity produced Unit price 2011 Bananas Mobile phones Umbrellas Bananas Mobile phones Umbrellas a) Compute the inflation rate in the period using the GDP deflator, taking 2011 as the base year. b) The representative bundle of goods is composed of 10 bananas and 2 mobile phones (the production of umbrellas is entirely exported because of the country s dry climate). Compute the inflation rate during using the consumer price index (CPI), taking 2011 as the base year. How can you explain the differences compared with a)?
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