U.S. CAPITAL MARKETS DECK

Transcription

1 U.S. CAPITAL MARKETS DECK SIFMA RESEARCH OCTOBER 215

2 Introduction America has the largest and deepest capital markets in the world according to the Federal Reserve, the capital markets provide approximately 75% of debt financing for businesses in the U.S. The securities industry facilitates access to those markets, creating investor opportunity, capital formation, job creation and economic growth. In 214, market capitalization the total value of all publicly traded securities of the U.S. stock market was $27 trillion. 3 companies conducted initial public offerings in 214 in the U.S. raising over $94 billion in new capital new values for the companies, their employees and their investors. The $7.7 trillion corporate bond market is the largest in the world: approximately 1,2 U.S. companies issued $1.5 trillion in corporate bonds to fund their operations and growth in 214. Municipal issuers raised over $338 billion in 214 to finance important community infrastructure projects including schools, airports, roads and bridges. 2

3 U.S. Economy GDP U.S. GDP was $17.3 trillion as of end-214, up 36.3% from $13.1 trillion in 25. GDP 25 and 214 GDP By Category 25 and $ Trillions 1% 8% 19.1% 18.2% Government Consumption & Investment % 4% 2% % -2% 67% 68% 19.3% 16.5% -5.6% -3.1% Net Exports of Goods and Services (Exports - Imports) Personal Consumption Expenditures Gross Private Domestic Investment (Corporate) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 3

4 U.S. Economy GDP Detail 14 $ Trillions GDP By Category - Personal Consumption 25 and $ Trillions GDP By Category - Gross Private Domestic Investment (Corporate) 12 1 Durable Goods Nonresidential Fixed Investment 8 6 Nondurable Goods Residential Fixed Investment 4 2 Services 1.5 Change in Private Inventories Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 4

5 U.S. Economy GDP in Perspective In 25, U.S. GDP was nearly three times as large as Japan s GDP, nearly six times as large as China s GDP, and 91.5% of the EU28 GDP. As of 214, U.S. GDP grew to nearly four times that of Japan, nearly twice as large as China s GDP and 94.% of EU28 GDP Gross Domestic Product of Selected Regions $ Trillions Japan US 6 5 Gross Domestic Product Per Capita of Selected Regions $ Thousands Japan US European Union China 4 3 European Union China Sources: World Bank Sources: World Bank Note: European Union includes the 28 EU-member states; China excludes Hong Kong 5

6 U.S. Economy - Employment U.S. nonfarm employment stood at 145 million as of end-214, up 3.9% from 139 million in 25. U.S. Employment, 214 Total: million U.S. Employment Transportation and warehousing 3% Other 28% Government 17% Finance and insurance 4% Trade 15% Health care and social assistance 13% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Administrative and waste management services 6% Agriculture, Mining, Utilities, Construction 6% Manufacturing 8% Millions Government Farm Nonfarm ex. Government

7 U.S. Corporate Financing in Perspective U.S. companies rely on the capital markets for a greater portion of total funding than do companies in the Euro Area, Japan or China, which rely more on bank funding. 1% Financing of non-financial corporations 214 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Other Financing Other Equity Quoted Shares Bonds Loans 4% 3% 2% 1% % U.S. Euro Area Japan China (212) Sources: OECD, ECB, Bank of Japan, National Bureau of Statistics of China Note: Euro Area includes the 19 EU-member states that have adopted the Euro currency 7

8 U.S. Corporate Debt Financing in Perspective U.S. companies rely more on the debt capital markets for credit financing than do those in the European Union or Japan, which rely more on bank loans for funding. 1% 9% 8% 24% Financing of non-financial corporations' debt % 7% 6% 5% 79% Debt Securities Outstanding Stock of Bank Lending 4% 3% 2% 76% 75% 1% % 21% EU US Japan Sources: Bank of Japan, ECB, Federal Reserve Note: EU includes the 28 EU-member states 8

9 Equity Markets as % of GDP The U.S. has a larger equity market relative to the size of GDP (152%), followed by Japan (17%), the Euro Area (62%) and China (58%). 16% Size of Listed Equity Market as % of GDP % 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % U.S. Euro Area Japan China Sources: OECD, Bank of Japan, ECB, World Bank, World Federation of Exchanges Note: Includes only non-financial corporate equities; Euro Area includes the 19 EU-member states that have adopted the Euro currency; China excludes Hong Kong 9

10 Bond & Equity Markets as % of GDP The U.S. has the largest bond and equity market relative to the size of GDP (358%), followed by Japan (336%), the Euro Area (18%) and China (1%). 4% Size of Listed Bond & Equity Market as % of GDP % 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % U.S. Euro Area Japan China Sources: BIS, World Bank, World Federation of Exchanges Note: Includes only non-financial corporate equities; Euro Area includes the 19 EU-member states that have adopted the Euro currency; China excludes Hong Kong 1

11 U.S. Capital Markets U.S. Capital Markets Issuance - Equity vs Bonds, 214 Total: $6.2 trillion U.S. Capital Markets Outstanding - Equity vs Bonds, 214 Total: $66.9 trillion Equity Market 5% Equity Market 42% Bond Market 58% Bond Market 95% Source: Bloomberg, Dealogic, Thomson Reuters, US Agencies, US Treasury, SIFMA Source: NYSE, NASDAQ, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, U.S. Agencies, U.S. Treasury, SIFMA Note: Issuance includes long-term corporate, agency and non-agency MBS and CMOs, agency debentures, Treasury, and municipal securities, and primary and secondary equity issuance. Outstanding includes both short- and long-term debt securities and equity market capitalization. 11

12 U.S. Bond Markets: Issuance Between 25 and 214 Treasury issuance increased from 13.5% to 37.7% of total U.S. bond issuance Corporate issuances increased from 13.6% to 24.4% Mortgage-related issuances decreased from 48.7% to 22.9%. U.S Long-Term Bond Issuance $ Trillions Corporate Asset-Backed Non-Agency MBS Agency MBS Federal Agency Muni/State Treasury , Bloomberg, Dealogic, US Treasury, US Agencies, SIFMA 12

13 U.S. Bond Markets: Outstanding The total value of outstanding bonds in the U.S. was $39. trillion at the end of 214, 47.6% larger than at end-25. While all sectors increased in dollar volume outstanding between 25 and 214, Treasuries and corporates increased relatively more than the other products. Treasuries rose from 16% to 32% and corporates rose from 17% to 2%, respectively, between 25 and $ Trillions U.S. Bond Market: Outstanding Treasury Muni/State Federal Agency Agency MBS Non-Agency MBS Asset-Backed Corporate Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, US Treasury, US Agencies, Federal Reserve, SIFMA 13

14 Treasury Bond Markets: A Closer Look The U.S. Treasury issues different maturities of debt: Short Term or Bills (up to one year) and Long-Term or Notes (one year to 1 years) and Bonds (over 1 years). In 214, the U.S. Treasury issued $2.2 trillion in new securities, almost three times the $746.1 billion issued in 25. The U.S. Treasury bond market outstanding was $12.5 trillion as of end-214, up three-fold from end-25. U.S. Treasury Bond Issuance By Tenor, 214 Total: $7. trillion Bonds 3% 2,5 2, U.S. Long-Term Treasury Bond Issuance $ Billions Notes 29% Bills 68% 1,5 1, 5 Source: U.S. Treasury Source: U.S. Treasury 14

15 Municipal Bond Markets: A Closer Look Municipal bonds are issued by state and local governments, agencies and authorities. There are over 55, different municipal bond issuers. In 214, $337.5 billion in municipal securities were issued, 17% below the $47.2 billion in 25. The municipal bond market outstanding was $3.7 trillion as of end-214, up 21% from end-25. Municipal Issuance By Type, 214 Total: $337.5 billion Municipal Issuance $ Billions Development 3% Housing 3% Other 14% Education 24% GO Revenue Healthcare 6% 3 25 Utilities 11% Transportation 15% General Purpose 24%

16 Corporate Bond Markets: A Closer Look Corporate bonds can be divided into investment grade (IG) and high yield (HY) based on their credit rating. IG bonds have ratings of BBB to AAA, while HY bonds have credit rating below BB. Bonds that have not been rated are also counted as HY. In 214 $1.4 trillion of corporate bonds were issued, almost double the $75. billion in 25. The size of the corporate bond market was $7.8 trillion at end-214, up 7.7% from 25. Corporate Bond Market Issuance, 214 Total: $1.4 trillion 1,6 $ Billions Corporate Bonds Issuance Materials 4% Media and Entertainment 5% High Technology 5% Industrials 6% Other 13% Financials 43% 1,4 1,2 1, High Yield Investment Grade Healthcare 8% Energy and Power 16%

17 Mortgage-Related Markets: A Closer Look The mortgage-related securities market is comprised of: Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) Non-agency commercial residential mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). In 214, mortgage-related securities issuance totaled $1.3 trillion, half of the $2.7 trillion in 25. The mortgage-related market had $8.7 trillion outstanding at end 214, up from $7.2 trillion in 25. Mortgage-Related Issuance By Type, 214 Total: $1.3 trillion Non-Agency RMBS 4% Non-Agency CMBS 7% 3, 2,5 2, $ Billion s Mortgage-Related Issuance Non-Agency Agency 1,5 Agency CMO 16% 1, Agency MBS 73% Sources: Bloomberg, Dealogic, Thomson Reuters, US Agencies, SIFMA Source: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Dealogic, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, SIFMA 17

18 Asset-Backed Markets: A Closer Look Asset-backed securities are backed by cash flows of non-mortgage collateral such as auto loans, credit card balances or student loans. In 214, $225.4 billion of asset-backed securities were issued in 214, down 22% from 25. The asset-backed market had $1.3 trillion outstanding as of the end of 214, up 4.8% from 25. Asset-Backed Issuance By Type, 214 Total: $225.4 billion Asset-Backed Issuance Student Loans 6% 35 3 $ Billions Housing- Related 1% Other 1% Auto 43% Equipment 8% 1 5 Credit Cards 23%

19 Agency Bond Markets: A Closer Look Agency bonds are debt securities issued by U.S. federal agencies or government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs). The largest three agency issuers are Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs). In 214, $377.4 billion in agency securities were issued, down 41% from the $635. billion in 25. The agency bond market had $2. trillion outstanding at end 214, down from $2.6 trillion in 25. Long-Term Agency Bond Issuance by Agency, 214 Total: $377.4 billion 1,4 Long-Term Agency Bond Issuance $ Billions Freddie Mac 2% Fannie Mae 1% Federal Farm Credit 18% 1,2 1, 8 6 Federal Home Loan Banks 52%

20 Equity Market: A Closer Look Most of the equity issued in the U.S. is in the form of common stock, which represents ownership in a corporation, with the balance issued in preferred stock, which combines features of debt and equity. Common shares can be divided further into Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) - the first sale of stock to the public and secondary offerings every subsequent stock issuance by that. In 214, stock offerings raised $311.4 billion, up 69.2% from $184. billion in 25. As of end-214, U.S. equity market capitalization stood at $27.9 trillion, 45.2% higher than in 25. U.S. Equity Market Issuance, 214 Total: $311.4 billion Preferred Stock 12% $ Billions U.S. Equity Market Issuance Preferred Stock Initial Public Offerings 2 Secondary Offerings 56% Initial Public Offerings 32%

21 Equity Market: A Closer Look at IPOs IPOs can be divided into true IPOs which are offered by companies going public and those offered by closed-end mutual funds. In 214, $94.3 billion was raised in true IPOs, up 144.1% from $38.6 billion in 25 and $6.5 billion in closed-end IPOs, 71.3% down from $22.7 in 25. Materials 4% Real Estate 4% Retail 5% "True" IPO Issuance, 214 Total: $94.3 billion Healthcare 1% Energy and Power 14% Other 7% Financials 19% High Technology 37% $ Billions Equity Issuance Closed-end funds IPOs "True" IPOs