Economic Research and Analysis Division Economics and Statistics Branch Department of Finance P.O. Box 8700 St. John s, NL A1B 4J6

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2 Economic Research and Analysis Division Economics and Statistics Branch Department of Finance P.O. Box 8700 St. John s, NL A1B 4J6 For questions concerning this report contact: Dave Penney, Economist Telephone: (709) Facsimile: (709) Prepared for the City of St. John s June 2014

3 About the Economic Research and Analysis Division Economic Research and Analysis (ERA) is one of two divisions in the Economics and Statistics Branch of the Department of Finance. The other is the Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics Agency. The Economic Research and Analysis Division is the central point within Government for economic and demographic analysis. The division s mandate is to provide macroeconomic analysis and forecasting; demographic analysis and projections; analysis of the provincial, national and international economies; and policy and project impact assessments. It is responsible for the Newfoundland and Labrador Econometric and Input/Output Models, as well as, the Population Projection Model. ERA is also responsible for the publication of the budget document, The Economy and the mid-year report, The Economic Review. As part of its mandate, ERA is responsible for monitoring and briefing Government on demographic developments in the province, and preparing long-term population projections for planning purposes. Population projections for various regions within Newfoundland and Labrador are produced annually and are available on ERA s website (economics.gov.nl.ca). 1

4 Introduction This report outlines population and household projections to 2036 for the St. John s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). 1 These projections were prepared by the Economic Research and Analysis Division (ERA) of the Department of Finance as part of its regular update of the regional population projections. This document was prepared at the request of the City of St. John s. These projections are based on historical population data for the St. John s CMA produced by Statistics Canada. This is the most reliable information available on the population of the St. John s CMA and provides the benchmark for the projections. Population estimates for the St. John s CMA, combined with assumptions involving fertility rates, life expectancy and migration were used to project the region s population to Three population scenarios were developed (high, medium and low) by varying the projection assumptions. Recent Trends Population Levels 250, , , ,000 50,000 0 Total Population St. John s CMA Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance From 1986 to 1993 the St. John s CMA experienced an 8.5 per cent increase in population as natural population gains were bolstered by strong total net inmigration. 2 From 1993 to 1998 the population declined by 2.1 per cent from 178,767 to 175,009, reflecting in part the impact of the collapse of the groundfish fishery. Since then the St. John s CMA population has increased steadily, making especially strong gains over the last five years because of rising birth rates and strong net inmigration. In 2012 the population grew by 1.7 per cent to 205,891 and in 2013 it climbed another 1.2 per cent to 208,372. Provincially, population grew 0.3 per cent in 2012, while 2013 saw no change. Further population growth is expected in the St. John s CMA in 2014 and beyond. 1 The St. John s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) includes the municipalities of Bauline, Bay Bulls, Conception Bay South, Flatrock, Logy Bay-Middle Cove-Outer Cove, Mount Pearl, Paradise, Petty Harbour- Maddox Cove, Portugal Cove-St. Phillip s, Pouch Cove, St. John s and Torbay. 2 This includes international net migration, interprovincial net migration and intraprovincial net migration as well as the residual deviation. 2

5 Natural Change Between 1986 and 2013, the number of births in the St. John s CMA displayed three distinct periods of trend (see chart to the right). From 1986 to 2001, births fell roughly 34 per cent from around 2,400 in to about 1,600 in , as fertility rates declined. This was followed by a period of relative stability from 2001 to From 2007 onwards net inmigration and a modest rebound in fertility rates caused the number of births to increase considerably, averaging over 2,000 during the time period. Over the last 27 years the number of deaths in the St. John s CMA has trended upwards as the population increased in size and aged. From 1986 to 2013, deaths in the region increased by roughly 30 per cent, reaching 1,492 in Migration For the majority of the years since 1986, the St. John s CMA has experienced net inmigration (see chart to the right). The only noteworthy break in this pattern occurred around the time when the economy was adjusting to negative economic impacts of the groundfish moratoria introduced in the early 1990s. Between 1993 and 1998 the St. John s CMA recorded a net migration loss averaging almost 1,300 per year. From 1998 to 2001 total net migration was marginally positive, but at levels on average much lower than 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000-2,000 Natural Population Change St. John s CMA '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 those seen prior to From 2001 onwards, total net migration began to increase as the economy improved, peaking at almost 3,800 in In 2013 total net in-migration was roughly 2, Net Migration St. John s CMA Natural Change Deaths Births Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance

6 Projections Population projections for the St. John s CMA were produced using POPPS, the Population Projection System, a custom-built projection system housed in the Department of Finance which projects the population by age and gender for Newfoundland and Labrador and sub-provincial regions. The system uses information/assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration to produce the three different population projection scenarios. Low, medium and high population scenarios were developed for consideration. The assumptions for each scenario are explained in the next section. Assumptions Fertility Rates For the low scenario, it was assumed that the total fertility rate for the St. John s CMA will gradually trend down from a current average of roughly 1.4 to 1.2 by This results in annual births trending down from around 2,000 in recent years to just below 1,700 in For the medium scenario, it was assumed that the total fertility rate remains stable at approximately 1.4 over the remainder of the projection period. This results in annual births increasing slightly from around 2,000 in recent years to approximately 2,200 in 2021, but returning to around 2,000 by For the high scenario, it was assumed that the region s total fertility rate gradually trends up from an estimated rate of 1.4 in 2013 to 1.6 in 2036 as economic conditions continue to improve. This results in annual births trending up from around 2,000 in recent years to approximately 2,500 in Mortality and Migration For the low scenario, life expectancies continue to increase but at rates slightly below historical trends. Male life expectancy increases by 2.1 years between 2013 and Female life expectancy increases by 0.9 years over the same period. Net in-migration is assumed to continue to slow from 2014 to 2016 when net out-migration is expected for two years (2017 and 2018) as several major projects, including the Hydromet facility in Long Harbour, Hebron, Kami, and the Lower Churchill are completed. Net inmigration resumes temporarily from 2019 to 2023 as construction of the Bay du Nord oil project occurs, but slows in Net out-migration is assumed to occur in 2024 as construction of Bay du Nord is completed. Net in-migration resumes in 2025 and gradually increases thereafter to fill new jobs that are expected to be created as well as to replace baby boomers as they retire. Net in-migration averages roughly 680 per year over the entire projection period from 2014 to For the medium scenario, life expectancies continue to increase in line with recent historical trends. Male life expectancy increases by 3.7 years between 2013 and Female life expectancy increases by 2.1 years over the same period. Modest net in-migration is assumed for the next three years, but then net outmigration occurs in 2017 and 2018 as several major projects, including the Hydromet facility in Long Harbour, Hebron, Kami, and the Lower Churchill are completed. Strong net in-migration is assumed to resume temporarily from 2019 to 2023 as construction of the Bay du Nord oil project occurs, but net outmigration is assumed in 2024 as construction of Bay du Nord is completed. Net in-migration resumes in 2025 and gradually increases thereafter to fill new jobs that are expected to be created as well as to 4

7 replace baby boomers as they retire. Net in-migration averages roughly 1,020 per year over the entire projection period from 2014 to For the high scenario, life expectancies continue to increase, but at a slightly faster pace than recent trends. Male life expectancy increases by 5.1 years between 2013 and Female life expectancy increases by 3.3 years over the same period. Net in-migration is assumed to occur over the entire projection period; however, it fluctuates with economic activity. Net in-migration is assumed to increase temporarily from 2019 to 2023 as construction of the Bay du Nord oil project occurs, but slows again in 2024 as construction is completed. Higher levels of net in-migration resume in 2025 and gradually increase thereafter to fill new jobs that are expected to be created as well as to replace baby boomers as they retire. Net in-migration averages roughly 1,370 per year over the entire projection period from 2014 to Results Total Population The results from the three population projection scenarios are illustrated in the chart to the right. In the low scenario, population increases by 5.7 per cent from 208,372 people in 2013 to 220,165 in The medium and high scenarios predict population will increase to 235,077 (12.8 per cent) and 249,924 (19.9 per cent) respectively by , , , , ,000 50,000 Total Population St. John s CMA, 1986 to 2036p High Medium Low Projected In all three scenarios the population structure 0 continues to age, with the '86 '91 '96 '01 '06 '11 '16p '21p '26p '31p '36p proportion of the population 65 years of age and over in Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance the medium scenario increasing from 13.2 per cent in 2013 to almost 23 per cent in 2036 (detailed population projections by age for the St. John s CMA can be found in Appendix A). 5

8 Age Distribution of Population Gains As the population ages the distribution of population gains will change. As can be viewed in the chart to the right, between 1986 and 2011 the largest population gains were in the 45 to 54 and 55 to 64 year age groups, while those under 25 showed the sharpest decline. In all three projection scenarios those aged 25 to 34 years show the weakest growth. However, in the low and medium scenarios all cohorts less than 65 years show declines or only modest growth with most of the population growth occurring in 65 years and over age groups. In the high scenario, 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10,000-15,000 Population Change by Age Group St. John s CMA Pop Ch to 2011 Pop Ch to 2036p (Low) Pop Ch to 2036p (Medium) Pop Ch to 2036p (High) < to to to to to Age Group Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance there is growth in the less than 25 age group but nonetheless the 65 years and older age groups show the largest population increases. Households The number of households in the St. John s CMA has risen steadily over the past 27 years (see chart to the right). This can be partially attributed to the fact that the portion of the population heading households (known as the headship rate) tends to rise with an aging population. Thus the growth in the population aged 45 to 64 from 1986 to 2013 contributed to an increase in the number of households while the decline in young population, which has very low household headship rates, exerted a 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Total Households St. John s CMA, 1986 to 2036p High Medium Low Projected '86 '91 '96 '01 '06 '11 '16p '21p '26p '31p '36p Statistics Canada; Economic Research and Analysis Division, Department of Finance 6

9 small drag on household formation. From 1986 to the number of households in the St. John s CMA increased from 47,905 to approximately 83,200 (or 73.6 per cent), even as the overall population in the region only increased from 164,806 to 202,533 (or 26.4 per cent). Household projections are produced by applying assumed future headship rates by age and gender to the population projections. Headship rates are assumed to stay constant at 2011 levels over the projection period in all three scenarios. In the low population scenario the total number of households increases by 12.5 per cent from 83,178 in 2013 to 93,530 in 2036 as population increases 5.7 per cent over the same period. In the medium scenario the number of households increases by 18.6 per cent from 83,178 in 2013 to 98,633 in 2036 as population increases by 12.8 per cent over the same period. In the high scenario, population growth together with aging produces further increases in the number of households. The number of households increases by 24.6 per cent from 83,178 in 2013 to 103,657 in 2036 as population rises by 19.9 per cent over the same period. As household formation outpaces population growth there is a natural decline in average household size. This occurs as the incidence of one-person and two-person households increase in the community. As the baby boomers continue to age and their children mature and leave home, two-person households become more common. In addition, the death of a spouse in an older household will result in more one-person households as the population ages. 3 The latest historical household estimate available from Statistics Canada is for Data from 2012 and 2013 are estimates by ERA. 7

10 Appendix A Population and Household Projections For the St. John s CMA Low, Medium, and High Scenario

11 POPULATION PROJECTIONS ST. JOHN'S CMA Low Scenario, April 2014 Department of Finance Total ,806 12,290 13,249 14,353 15,311 16,262 14,892 14,205 12,787 10,047 7,305 6,437 6,131 5,739 5,533 4,503 2,937 1, ,006 12,051 13,051 13,840 14,901 16,563 15,167 14,588 13,082 10,901 7,601 6,581 6,103 5,687 5,519 4,502 2,986 1, ,880 11,978 12,844 13,585 14,674 16,705 15,523 14,862 13,468 11,524 8,223 6,688 6,198 5,655 5,467 4,397 3,127 1, ,609 11,809 12,808 13,427 14,532 16,823 16,187 15,261 13,941 12,135 8,843 6,912 6,199 5,688 5,370 4,306 3,284 1, ,334 11,791 12,599 13,224 14,452 16,872 16,875 15,604 14,446 12,761 9,501 7,189 6,216 5,762 5,121 4,353 3,403 1, ,573 11,792 12,340 12,970 14,304 17,101 17,268 15,943 14,783 13,103 10,348 7,506 6,264 5,740 5,071 4,352 3,397 1, ,170 11,797 12,363 12,848 13,866 17,299 17,046 15,956 15,059 13,349 11,161 7,775 6,338 5,807 5,068 4,484 3,448 2,102 1, ,767 11,577 12,261 12,784 13,779 17,287 16,844 16,043 15,328 13,686 11,632 8,343 6,458 5,930 5,072 4,489 3,472 2,281 1, ,149 11,244 11,945 12,723 13,592 16,617 16,268 15,957 15,334 13,949 12,068 8,806 6,673 5,939 5,130 4,497 3,426 2,420 1, ,740 10,764 11,880 12,589 13,467 15,964 15,670 15,947 15,337 14,262 12,530 9,275 6,865 5,953 5,213 4,403 3,486 2,516 1, ,888 10,206 11,710 12,499 13,387 15,284 15,009 15,802 15,294 14,448 12,751 9,994 7,126 5,908 5,173 4,467 3,616 2,493 1, ,298 9,894 11,442 12,293 12,955 15,008 14,544 15,506 15,312 14,562 13,022 10,706 7,409 5,972 5,204 4,450 3,733 2,491 1, ,009 9,647 11,150 12,042 12,638 14,665 14,017 14,911 15,230 14,556 13,225 11,143 7,923 6,048 5,290 4,446 3,701 2,493 1, ,333 9,452 10,894 11,783 12,674 14,661 13,695 14,367 15,298 14,656 13,568 11,620 8,401 6,238 5,354 4,492 3,703 2,483 1, ,065 9,411 10,444 11,641 12,611 14,724 13,542 13,929 15,400 14,828 13,883 12,099 8,842 6,480 5,360 4,637 3,613 2,562 1, ,301 9,216 10,025 11,529 12,667 14,738 13,134 13,671 15,297 14,924 14,072 12,313 9,529 6,718 5,395 4,647 3,694 2,626 1, ,681 8,998 9,934 11,439 12,775 14,535 13,296 13,592 15,165 15,081 14,252 12,663 10,249 7,016 5,506 4,651 3,678 2,728 1, ,317 9,003 9,795 11,278 12,832 14,253 13,743 13,564 14,928 15,226 14,493 12,934 10,785 7,545 5,629 4,743 3,640 2,751 1, ,576 9,124 9,753 11,110 12,720 14,429 14,042 13,607 14,581 15,567 14,623 13,348 11,291 8,024 5,840 4,785 3,755 2,742 1, ,498 9,056 9,815 10,691 12,451 14,481 13,994 13,570 14,360 15,721 14,669 13,749 11,747 8,490 6,018 4,784 3,850 2,700 1, ,777 9,164 9,674 10,503 12,140 14,664 13,925 13,540 14,133 15,741 14,898 13,955 12,064 9,167 6,309 4,833 3,842 2,777 1, ,067 9,269 9,689 10,290 12,430 14,451 14,135 13,522 14,166 15,575 15,145 14,175 12,385 9,886 6,622 5,025 3,915 2,800 1, ,771 9,621 9,864 10,228 12,564 14,752 14,483 13,877 14,121 15,391 15,403 14,396 12,710 10,488 7,179 5,163 4,068 2,832 1, ,867 10,131 10,038 10,262 12,379 15,001 14,973 14,180 14,273 15,096 15,815 14,622 13,194 11,023 7,670 5,417 4,145 2,949 1, ,436 10,567 10,056 10,418 11,929 15,800 15,569 14,499 14,590 14,990 16,020 14,885 13,660 11,607 8,098 5,648 4,219 3,049 1, ,533 10,901 10,292 10,345 11,723 16,444 16,189 14,853 14,677 15,053 15,988 15,174 13,924 11,915 8,793 5,943 4,275 3,101 1,890 1, ,891 10,880 10,540 10,259 11,361 16,487 16,857 15,500 14,784 15,186 15,969 15,394 14,129 12,281 9,574 6,175 4,431 3,137 1,853 1, ,372 10,706 10,857 10,297 11,076 15,987 17,286 16,001 15,162 15,160 15,777 15,659 14,360 12,550 10,124 6,666 4,558 3,190 1,866 1, ,395 10,547 11,251 10,324 10,944 15,322 17,057 16,439 15,297 14,997 15,337 15,910 14,337 12,954 10,579 7,088 4,744 3,239 1,919 1, ,124 10,387 11,630 10,242 10,889 14,444 16,950 16,698 15,476 14,891 14,906 16,040 14,416 13,245 11,077 7,497 4,936 3,287 1,969 1, ,615 10,348 11,887 10,288 10,775 13,745 16,550 16,880 15,591 14,833 14,592 15,920 14,618 13,386 11,393 8,125 5,173 3,327 2,004 1, ,747 10,346 11,896 10,465 10,659 13,276 16,062 16,741 15,788 14,733 14,376 15,630 14,811 13,494 11,709 8,681 5,402 3,429 2,026 1, ,776 10,307 11,823 10,702 10,610 12,892 15,350 16,513 16,024 14,823 14,150 15,247 15,024 13,538 12,060 9,144 5,730 3,525 2,080 1, ,421 10,275 11,646 11,083 10,620 12,723 14,677 16,304 16,426 14,970 14,008 14,781 15,259 13,509 12,456 9,570 6,096 3,659 2,105 1, ,647 10,181 11,501 11,486 10,601 12,839 13,974 16,299 16,762 15,235 13,943 14,369 15,374 13,581 12,752 10,016 6,460 3,817 2,159 1, ,305 10,064 11,524 11,802 10,730 12,959 13,548 16,162 17,110 15,491 13,988 14,126 15,257 13,769 12,938 10,321 6,989 3,987 2,207 1, ,003 9,829 11,573 11,838 10,916 13,011 13,251 15,818 17,088 15,769 14,002 13,950 14,983 13,958 13,065 10,624 7,501 4,186 2,280 1, ,052 9,579 11,568 11,768 11,158 13,003 13,047 15,214 16,940 16,005 14,140 13,743 14,601 14,154 13,108 10,942 7,908 4,437 2,347 1, ,635 9,277 11,460 11,578 11,479 12,946 12,819 14,525 16,683 16,323 14,241 13,572 14,141 14,357 13,084 11,299 8,262 4,717 2,458 1, ,695 9,075 11,300 11,407 11,848 12,803 12,901 13,688 16,636 16,589 14,455 13,449 13,720 14,445 13,160 11,566 8,652 4,985 2,574 1, ,020 8,889 11,086 11,371 12,140 12,872 12,924 13,149 16,383 16,849 14,625 13,417 13,436 14,320 13,339 11,733 8,917 5,409 2,694 1, ,483 8,726 10,871 11,440 12,175 13,118 13,010 12,884 16,075 16,875 14,884 13,405 13,264 14,057 13,515 11,866 9,186 5,784 2,828 1, ,146 8,625 10,669 11,473 12,123 13,461 13,188 12,776 15,579 16,836 15,186 13,566 13,098 13,745 13,729 11,911 9,458 6,123 3,030 1, ,758 8,540 10,481 11,450 11,961 13,943 13,305 12,774 15,021 16,740 15,596 13,743 12,987 13,313 13,939 11,901 9,800 6,395 3,230 1, ,352 8,502 10,306 11,375 11,810 14,473 13,264 12,964 14,306 16,736 15,922 13,957 12,913 12,938 14,047 11,985 10,040 6,683 3,423 1, ,116 8,475 10,165 11,189 11,790 14,822 13,481 13,086 13,837 16,564 16,229 14,156 12,923 12,686 13,935 12,176 10,190 6,897 3,750 1, ,608 8,477 10,027 11,005 11,847 14,823 13,803 13,229 13,631 16,300 16,251 14,422 12,933 12,550 13,697 12,328 10,311 7,104 4,022 1, ,112 8,493 9,924 10,820 11,879 14,704 14,191 13,438 13,550 15,838 16,260 14,687 13,090 12,393 13,373 12,549 10,366 7,334 4,257 1, ,546 8,538 9,860 10,639 11,839 14,450 14,761 13,608 13,557 15,290 16,148 15,078 13,262 12,293 12,986 12,737 10,359 7,589 4,471 2, ,867 8,581 9,812 10,467 11,757 14,214 15,319 13,577 13,749 14,595 16,133 15,361 13,475 12,233 12,648 12,840 10,427 7,781 4,684 2, ,165 8,651 9,802 10,329 11,546 14,110 15,669 13,747 13,860 14,156 15,938 15,607 13,624 12,252 12,391 12,752 10,596 7,884 4,845 2,406

12 POPULATION PROJECTIONS ST. JOHN'S CMA Low Scenario, April 2014 Department of Finance Males ,790 6,301 6,783 7,407 7,732 8,109 7,339 7,004 6,432 5,109 3,729 3,207 2,986 2,838 2,582 1,983 1, ,085 6,140 6,683 7,161 7,560 8,147 7,489 7,166 6,554 5,475 3,888 3,269 2,989 2,798 2,568 1,965 1, ,737 6,104 6,584 7,040 7,452 8,174 7,652 7,286 6,693 5,791 4,136 3,345 3,032 2,744 2,551 1,909 1, ,942 5,989 6,544 6,990 7,394 8,189 7,990 7,497 6,938 6,034 4,455 3,483 3,048 2,725 2,506 1,868 1, ,124 5,983 6,455 6,865 7,322 8,236 8,318 7,703 7,154 6,325 4,757 3,643 3,058 2,731 2,412 1,852 1, ,059 5,958 6,340 6,659 7,347 8,347 8,466 7,855 7,331 6,474 5,148 3,823 3,088 2,723 2,349 1,845 1, ,040 5,965 6,370 6,555 7,162 8,531 8,405 7,929 7,429 6,582 5,592 3,926 3,135 2,755 2,341 1,920 1, ,714 5,863 6,326 6,510 7,143 8,526 8,288 7,919 7,564 6,698 5,862 4,136 3,217 2,844 2,301 1,940 1, ,155 5,712 6,113 6,503 7,023 8,179 7,988 7,849 7,547 6,851 5,968 4,349 3,338 2,855 2,350 1,929 1, ,800 5,496 6,060 6,412 6,925 7,882 7,728 7,797 7,530 6,967 6,160 4,555 3,436 2,891 2,371 1,915 1, ,128 5,216 5,946 6,393 6,795 7,596 7,400 7,628 7,435 7,093 6,264 4,921 3,557 2,858 2,334 1,936 1, ,842 5,033 5,823 6,275 6,577 7,499 7,185 7,468 7,482 7,131 6,401 5,243 3,668 2,905 2,355 1,935 1, ,847 4,916 5,648 6,141 6,433 7,292 6,846 7,109 7,410 7,063 6,450 5,474 3,899 2,943 2,429 1,919 1, ,926 4,804 5,534 5,978 6,430 7,231 6,691 6,857 7,449 7,151 6,612 5,658 4,170 3,019 2,470 1,944 1, ,266 4,799 5,313 5,922 6,378 7,198 6,653 6,688 7,445 7,272 6,747 5,909 4,349 3,161 2,494 1,988 1, ,238 4,755 5,075 5,849 6,406 7,134 6,451 6,628 7,359 7,253 6,806 6,034 4,670 3,277 2,524 1,987 1, ,993 4,649 5,048 5,790 6,476 7,066 6,562 6,623 7,257 7,306 6,916 6,174 5,015 3,410 2,631 1,984 1, ,931 4,614 5,013 5,712 6,482 7,056 6,782 6,631 7,135 7,373 7,034 6,283 5,324 3,662 2,695 2,066 1, ,136 4,703 4,992 5,611 6,427 7,196 6,933 6,688 6,966 7,540 7,104 6,531 5,485 3,935 2,791 2,127 1, ,685 4,678 5,058 5,452 6,278 7,246 6,899 6,724 6,901 7,558 7,091 6,689 5,750 4,137 2,896 2,177 1, ,316 4,720 5,031 5,363 6,102 7,301 6,911 6,674 6,837 7,606 7,126 6,788 5,908 4,483 3,024 2,227 1,525 1, ,354 4,764 5,031 5,267 6,263 7,152 7,037 6,593 6,936 7,460 7,269 6,916 6,047 4,830 3,140 2,328 1,573 1, ,201 4,903 5,101 5,223 6,318 7,371 7,271 6,759 6,899 7,377 7,428 7,011 6,162 5,160 3,391 2,353 1,679 1, ,290 5,121 5,230 5,225 6,169 7,497 7,483 6,952 6,998 7,265 7,640 7,207 6,439 5,336 3,682 2,460 1,728 1, ,805 5,325 5,222 5,328 5,947 7,921 7,850 7,129 7,194 7,303 7,700 7,382 6,673 5,675 3,837 2,606 1,777 1, ,946 5,503 5,316 5,323 5,817 8,302 8,163 7,291 7,236 7,370 7,742 7,459 6,838 5,836 4,194 2,778 1,804 1, ,666 5,512 5,407 5,315 5,693 8,234 8,498 7,702 7,222 7,467 7,736 7,536 6,953 6,026 4,577 2,859 1,928 1, ,905 5,479 5,534 5,292 5,622 7,904 8,683 8,037 7,393 7,443 7,644 7,661 7,094 6,094 4,898 3,075 2,015 1, ,260 5,387 5,726 5,294 5,572 7,604 8,494 8,223 7,458 7,371 7,437 7,785 7,066 6,286 5,087 3,283 2,098 1, ,565 5,304 5,909 5,236 5,589 7,185 8,426 8,336 7,522 7,324 7,261 7,805 7,092 6,428 5,329 3,458 2,208 1, ,624 5,275 6,002 5,246 5,577 6,844 8,235 8,339 7,568 7,279 7,128 7,748 7,167 6,494 5,483 3,718 2,325 1, ,527 5,269 6,003 5,332 5,520 6,641 8,009 8,173 7,668 7,182 7,062 7,583 7,273 6,507 5,641 3,963 2,423 1, ,400 5,257 5,955 5,455 5,460 6,460 7,672 7,963 7,801 7,224 6,975 7,367 7,396 6,492 5,809 4,185 2,568 1, ,579 5,241 5,855 5,651 5,468 6,367 7,356 7,813 7,981 7,283 6,930 7,140 7,507 6,459 6,000 4,353 2,745 1, ,137 5,194 5,783 5,842 5,427 6,479 7,028 7,796 8,129 7,405 6,906 6,975 7,520 6,493 6,138 4,555 2,897 1, ,853 5,139 5,782 5,990 5,477 6,587 6,813 7,758 8,226 7,535 6,912 6,895 7,467 6,552 6,234 4,701 3,113 1, ,090 5,011 5,818 6,003 5,574 6,608 6,700 7,626 8,132 7,683 6,879 6,851 7,303 6,663 6,261 4,845 3,337 1, ,026 4,876 5,819 5,962 5,708 6,576 6,616 7,371 7,973 7,825 6,953 6,774 7,094 6,778 6,243 4,993 3,529 1, ,671 4,730 5,762 5,858 5,875 6,533 6,525 7,051 7,802 7,960 6,993 6,699 6,872 6,871 6,221 5,154 3,667 1, ,571 4,617 5,690 5,763 6,049 6,447 6,597 6,648 7,757 8,064 7,078 6,643 6,695 6,873 6,253 5,280 3,843 1, ,676 4,531 5,582 5,750 6,175 6,450 6,686 6,387 7,677 8,128 7,164 6,608 6,591 6,821 6,313 5,360 3,968 2,116 1, ,797 4,456 5,477 5,783 6,185 6,569 6,730 6,284 7,555 8,057 7,307 6,571 6,550 6,667 6,416 5,399 4,095 2,261 1, ,015 4,395 5,380 5,810 6,156 6,742 6,772 6,249 7,355 7,953 7,486 6,644 6,501 6,490 6,550 5,377 4,230 2,400 1, ,203 4,346 5,285 5,794 6,051 6,962 6,821 6,267 7,111 7,873 7,673 6,724 6,468 6,295 6,650 5,367 4,377 2,500 1, ,427 4,331 5,201 5,760 5,980 7,207 6,775 6,412 6,771 7,858 7,827 6,825 6,441 6,144 6,649 5,409 4,492 2,612 1, ,699 4,317 5,124 5,669 5,963 7,338 6,836 6,543 6,550 7,808 7,911 6,917 6,453 6,054 6,612 5,475 4,562 2,704 1, ,904 4,324 5,062 5,568 5,999 7,329 7,004 6,611 6,483 7,727 7,845 7,060 6,429 6,039 6,474 5,566 4,599 2,788 1, ,056 4,334 5,001 5,478 6,012 7,242 7,214 6,687 6,465 7,540 7,773 7,223 6,505 5,994 6,299 5,690 4,584 2,887 1, ,233 4,353 4,978 5,391 5,999 7,099 7,476 6,776 6,506 7,301 7,685 7,390 6,596 5,969 6,118 5,786 4,583 2,988 1, ,313 4,377 4,951 5,298 5,962 6,959 7,746 6,711 6,660 6,979 7,664 7,514 6,688 5,950 5,999 5,798 4,617 3,073 1, ,400 4,405 4,952 5,232 5,845 6,898 7,887 6,773 6,775 6,775 7,598 7,580 6,768 5,952 5,907 5,768 4,678 3,121 1,

13 POPULATION PROJECTIONS ST. JOHN'S CMA Low Scenario, April 2014 Department of Finance Females ,016 5,989 6,466 6,946 7,579 8,153 7,553 7,201 6,355 4,938 3,576 3,230 3,145 2,901 2,951 2,520 1, ,921 5,911 6,368 6,679 7,341 8,416 7,678 7,422 6,528 5,426 3,713 3,312 3,114 2,889 2,951 2,537 1,786 1, ,143 5,874 6,260 6,545 7,222 8,531 7,871 7,576 6,775 5,733 4,087 3,343 3,166 2,911 2,916 2,488 1,903 1, ,667 5,820 6,264 6,437 7,138 8,634 8,197 7,764 7,003 6,101 4,388 3,429 3,151 2,963 2,864 2,438 2,036 1, ,210 5,808 6,144 6,359 7,130 8,636 8,557 7,901 7,292 6,436 4,744 3,546 3,158 3,031 2,709 2,501 2,115 1, ,514 5,834 6,000 6,311 6,957 8,754 8,802 8,088 7,452 6,629 5,200 3,683 3,176 3,017 2,722 2,507 2,119 1, ,130 5,832 5,993 6,293 6,704 8,768 8,641 8,027 7,630 6,767 5,569 3,849 3,203 3,052 2,727 2,564 2,147 1, ,053 5,714 5,935 6,274 6,636 8,761 8,556 8,124 7,764 6,988 5,770 4,207 3,241 3,086 2,771 2,549 2,173 1, ,994 5,532 5,832 6,220 6,569 8,438 8,280 8,108 7,787 7,098 6,100 4,457 3,335 3,084 2,780 2,568 2,159 1, ,940 5,268 5,820 6,177 6,542 8,082 7,942 8,150 7,807 7,295 6,370 4,720 3,429 3,062 2,842 2,488 2,174 1, ,760 4,990 5,764 6,106 6,592 7,688 7,609 8,174 7,859 7,355 6,487 5,073 3,569 3,050 2,839 2,531 2,225 1, ,456 4,861 5,619 6,018 6,378 7,509 7,359 8,038 7,830 7,431 6,621 5,463 3,741 3,067 2,849 2,515 2,289 1, ,162 4,731 5,502 5,901 6,205 7,373 7,171 7,802 7,820 7,493 6,775 5,669 4,024 3,105 2,861 2,527 2,271 1, ,407 4,648 5,360 5,805 6,244 7,430 7,004 7,510 7,849 7,505 6,956 5,962 4,231 3,219 2,884 2,548 2,257 1,660 1, ,799 4,612 5,131 5,719 6,233 7,526 6,889 7,241 7,955 7,556 7,136 6,190 4,493 3,319 2,866 2,649 2,184 1,694 1, ,063 4,461 4,950 5,680 6,261 7,604 6,683 7,043 7,938 7,671 7,266 6,279 4,859 3,441 2,871 2,660 2,212 1,750 1, ,688 4,349 4,886 5,649 6,299 7,469 6,734 6,969 7,908 7,775 7,336 6,489 5,234 3,606 2,875 2,667 2,170 1,791 1, ,386 4,389 4,782 5,566 6,350 7,197 6,961 6,933 7,793 7,853 7,459 6,651 5,461 3,883 2,934 2,677 2,166 1,789 1, ,440 4,421 4,761 5,499 6,293 7,233 7,109 6,919 7,615 8,027 7,519 6,817 5,806 4,089 3,049 2,658 2,228 1,771 1, ,813 4,378 4,757 5,239 6,173 7,235 7,095 6,846 7,459 8,163 7,578 7,060 5,997 4,353 3,122 2,607 2,310 1,705 1, ,461 4,444 4,643 5,140 6,038 7,363 7,014 6,866 7,296 8,135 7,772 7,167 6,156 4,684 3,285 2,606 2,317 1,721 1, ,713 4,505 4,658 5,023 6,167 7,299 7,098 6,929 7,230 8,115 7,876 7,259 6,338 5,056 3,482 2,697 2,342 1,729 1, ,570 4,718 4,763 5,005 6,246 7,381 7,212 7,118 7,222 8,014 7,975 7,385 6,548 5,328 3,788 2,810 2,389 1,771 1, ,577 5,010 4,808 5,037 6,210 7,504 7,490 7,228 7,275 7,831 8,175 7,415 6,755 5,687 3,988 2,957 2,417 1,839 1, ,631 5,242 4,834 5,090 5,982 7,879 7,719 7,370 7,396 7,687 8,320 7,503 6,987 5,932 4,261 3,042 2,442 1,938 1, ,587 5,398 4,976 5,022 5,906 8,142 8,026 7,562 7,441 7,683 8,246 7,715 7,086 6,079 4,599 3,165 2,471 1,982 1, ,225 5,368 5,133 4,944 5,668 8,253 8,359 7,798 7,562 7,719 8,233 7,858 7,176 6,255 4,997 3,316 2,503 1,995 1, ,467 5,227 5,323 5,005 5,454 8,083 8,603 7,964 7,769 7,717 8,133 7,998 7,266 6,456 5,226 3,591 2,543 1,998 1, ,135 5,160 5,525 5,030 5,372 7,718 8,563 8,216 7,839 7,626 7,900 8,125 7,271 6,668 5,492 3,805 2,646 2,007 1, ,559 5,083 5,721 5,006 5,300 7,259 8,524 8,362 7,954 7,567 7,645 8,235 7,324 6,817 5,748 4,039 2,728 2,023 1, ,991 5,073 5,885 5,042 5,198 6,901 8,315 8,541 8,023 7,554 7,464 8,172 7,451 6,892 5,910 4,407 2,848 2,043 1, ,220 5,077 5,893 5,133 5,139 6,635 8,053 8,568 8,120 7,551 7,314 8,047 7,538 6,987 6,068 4,718 2,979 2,101 1, ,376 5,050 5,868 5,247 5,150 6,432 7,678 8,550 8,223 7,599 7,175 7,880 7,628 7,046 6,251 4,959 3,162 2,151 1, ,842 5,034 5,791 5,432 5,152 6,356 7,321 8,491 8,445 7,687 7,078 7,641 7,752 7,050 6,456 5,217 3,351 2,237 1, ,510 4,987 5,718 5,644 5,174 6,360 6,946 8,503 8,633 7,830 7,037 7,394 7,854 7,088 6,614 5,461 3,563 2,310 1,383 1, ,452 4,925 5,742 5,812 5,253 6,372 6,735 8,404 8,884 7,956 7,076 7,231 7,790 7,217 6,704 5,620 3,876 2,409 1,412 1, ,913 4,818 5,755 5,835 5,342 6,403 6,551 8,192 8,956 8,086 7,123 7,099 7,680 7,295 6,804 5,779 4,164 2,534 1,448 1, ,026 4,703 5,749 5,806 5,450 6,427 6,431 7,843 8,967 8,180 7,187 6,969 7,507 7,376 6,865 5,949 4,379 2,683 1,490 1, ,964 4,547 5,698 5,720 5,604 6,413 6,294 7,474 8,881 8,363 7,248 6,873 7,269 7,486 6,863 6,145 4,595 2,849 1,562 1, ,124 4,458 5,610 5,644 5,799 6,356 6,304 7,040 8,879 8,525 7,377 6,806 7,025 7,572 6,907 6,286 4,809 3,013 1,617 1, ,344 4,358 5,504 5,621 5,965 6,422 6,238 6,762 8,706 8,721 7,461 6,809 6,845 7,499 7,026 6,373 4,949 3,293 1,681 1, ,686 4,270 5,394 5,657 5,990 6,549 6,280 6,600 8,520 8,818 7,577 6,834 6,714 7,390 7,099 6,467 5,091 3,523 1,771 1, ,131 4,230 5,289 5,663 5,967 6,719 6,416 6,527 8,224 8,883 7,700 6,922 6,597 7,255 7,179 6,534 5,228 3,723 1,897 1, ,555 4,194 5,196 5,656 5,910 6,981 6,484 6,507 7,910 8,867 7,923 7,019 6,519 7,018 7,289 6,534 5,423 3,895 2,009 1, ,925 4,171 5,105 5,615 5,830 7,266 6,489 6,552 7,535 8,878 8,095 7,132 6,472 6,794 7,398 6,576 5,548 4,071 2,125 1, ,417 4,158 5,041 5,520 5,827 7,484 6,645 6,543 7,287 8,756 8,318 7,239 6,470 6,632 7,323 6,701 5,628 4,193 2,342 1, ,704 4,153 4,965 5,437 5,848 7,494 6,799 6,618 7,148 8,573 8,406 7,362 6,504 6,511 7,223 6,762 5,712 4,316 2,503 1, ,056 4,159 4,923 5,342 5,867 7,462 6,977 6,751 7,085 8,298 8,487 7,464 6,585 6,399 7,074 6,859 5,782 4,447 2,641 1, ,313 4,185 4,882 5,248 5,840 7,351 7,285 6,832 7,051 7,989 8,463 7,688 6,666 6,324 6,868 6,951 5,776 4,601 2,774 1, ,554 4,204 4,861 5,169 5,795 7,255 7,573 6,866 7,089 7,616 8,469 7,847 6,787 6,283 6,649 7,042 5,810 4,708 2,899 1, ,765 4,246 4,850 5,097 5,701 7,212 7,782 6,974 7,085 7,381 8,340 8,027 6,856 6,300 6,484 6,984 5,918 4,763 2,994 1,771

14 POPULATION PROJECTIONS ST. JOHN'S CMA Medium Scenario, April 2014 Department of Finance Total ,806 12,290 13,249 14,353 15,311 16,262 14,892 14,205 12,787 10,047 7,305 6,437 6,131 5,739 5,533 4,503 2,937 1, ,006 12,051 13,051 13,840 14,901 16,563 15,167 14,588 13,082 10,901 7,601 6,581 6,103 5,687 5,519 4,502 2,986 1, ,880 11,978 12,844 13,585 14,674 16,705 15,523 14,862 13,468 11,524 8,223 6,688 6,198 5,655 5,467 4,397 3,127 1, ,609 11,809 12,808 13,427 14,532 16,823 16,187 15,261 13,941 12,135 8,843 6,912 6,199 5,688 5,370 4,306 3,284 1, ,334 11,791 12,599 13,224 14,452 16,872 16,875 15,604 14,446 12,761 9,501 7,189 6,216 5,762 5,121 4,353 3,403 1, ,573 11,792 12,340 12,970 14,304 17,101 17,268 15,943 14,783 13,103 10,348 7,506 6,264 5,740 5,071 4,352 3,397 1, ,170 11,797 12,363 12,848 13,866 17,299 17,046 15,956 15,059 13,349 11,161 7,775 6,338 5,807 5,068 4,484 3,448 2,102 1, ,767 11,577 12,261 12,784 13,779 17,287 16,844 16,043 15,328 13,686 11,632 8,343 6,458 5,930 5,072 4,489 3,472 2,281 1, ,149 11,244 11,945 12,723 13,592 16,617 16,268 15,957 15,334 13,949 12,068 8,806 6,673 5,939 5,130 4,497 3,426 2,420 1, ,740 10,764 11,880 12,589 13,467 15,964 15,670 15,947 15,337 14,262 12,530 9,275 6,865 5,953 5,213 4,403 3,486 2,516 1, ,888 10,206 11,710 12,499 13,387 15,284 15,009 15,802 15,294 14,448 12,751 9,994 7,126 5,908 5,173 4,467 3,616 2,493 1, ,298 9,894 11,442 12,293 12,955 15,008 14,544 15,506 15,312 14,562 13,022 10,706 7,409 5,972 5,204 4,450 3,733 2,491 1, ,009 9,647 11,150 12,042 12,638 14,665 14,017 14,911 15,230 14,556 13,225 11,143 7,923 6,048 5,290 4,446 3,701 2,493 1, ,333 9,452 10,894 11,783 12,674 14,661 13,695 14,367 15,298 14,656 13,568 11,620 8,401 6,238 5,354 4,492 3,703 2,483 1, ,065 9,411 10,444 11,641 12,611 14,724 13,542 13,929 15,400 14,828 13,883 12,099 8,842 6,480 5,360 4,637 3,613 2,562 1, ,301 9,216 10,025 11,529 12,667 14,738 13,134 13,671 15,297 14,924 14,072 12,313 9,529 6,718 5,395 4,647 3,694 2,626 1, ,681 8,998 9,934 11,439 12,775 14,535 13,296 13,592 15,165 15,081 14,252 12,663 10,249 7,016 5,506 4,651 3,678 2,728 1, ,317 9,003 9,795 11,278 12,832 14,253 13,743 13,564 14,928 15,226 14,493 12,934 10,785 7,545 5,629 4,743 3,640 2,751 1, ,576 9,124 9,753 11,110 12,720 14,429 14,042 13,607 14,581 15,567 14,623 13,348 11,291 8,024 5,840 4,785 3,755 2,742 1, ,498 9,056 9,815 10,691 12,451 14,481 13,994 13,570 14,360 15,721 14,669 13,749 11,747 8,490 6,018 4,784 3,850 2,700 1, ,777 9,164 9,674 10,503 12,140 14,664 13,925 13,540 14,133 15,741 14,898 13,955 12,064 9,167 6,309 4,833 3,842 2,777 1, ,067 9,269 9,689 10,290 12,430 14,451 14,135 13,522 14,166 15,575 15,145 14,175 12,385 9,886 6,622 5,025 3,915 2,800 1, ,771 9,621 9,864 10,228 12,564 14,752 14,483 13,877 14,121 15,391 15,403 14,396 12,710 10,488 7,179 5,163 4,068 2,832 1, ,867 10,131 10,038 10,262 12,379 15,001 14,973 14,180 14,273 15,096 15,815 14,622 13,194 11,023 7,670 5,417 4,145 2,949 1, ,436 10,567 10,056 10,418 11,929 15,800 15,569 14,499 14,590 14,990 16,020 14,885 13,660 11,607 8,098 5,648 4,219 3,049 1, ,533 10,901 10,292 10,345 11,723 16,444 16,189 14,853 14,677 15,053 15,988 15,174 13,924 11,915 8,793 5,943 4,275 3,101 1,890 1, ,891 10,880 10,540 10,259 11,361 16,487 16,857 15,500 14,784 15,186 15,969 15,394 14,129 12,281 9,574 6,175 4,431 3,137 1,853 1, ,372 10,706 10,857 10,297 11,076 15,987 17,286 16,001 15,162 15,160 15,777 15,659 14,360 12,550 10,124 6,666 4,558 3,190 1,866 1, ,693 10,562 11,271 10,337 10,954 15,355 17,119 16,483 15,318 15,031 15,359 15,918 14,337 12,954 10,585 7,091 4,748 3,239 1,919 1, ,687 10,431 11,666 10,263 10,907 14,509 17,050 16,773 15,532 14,948 14,947 16,060 14,433 13,252 11,080 7,497 4,937 3,285 1,973 1, ,567 10,427 11,941 10,336 10,808 13,842 16,714 17,003 15,678 14,909 14,654 15,956 14,648 13,409 11,409 8,133 5,180 3,331 2,007 1, ,114 10,505 11,981 10,527 10,702 13,400 16,259 16,919 15,907 14,858 14,470 15,681 14,845 13,524 11,737 8,695 5,411 3,434 2,029 1, ,584 10,552 11,930 10,780 10,662 13,037 15,599 16,737 16,187 14,964 14,266 15,322 15,079 13,584 12,090 9,171 5,751 3,539 2,094 1, ,658 10,624 11,787 11,178 10,686 12,882 14,950 16,579 16,627 15,138 14,147 14,876 15,326 13,561 12,505 9,598 6,126 3,680 2,128 1, ,398 10,634 11,672 11,605 10,681 13,018 14,288 16,629 17,011 15,437 14,124 14,485 15,445 13,650 12,812 10,064 6,502 3,846 2,183 1, ,587 10,621 11,725 11,948 10,834 13,158 13,910 16,555 17,402 15,727 14,199 14,266 15,357 13,843 13,010 10,379 7,034 4,023 2,241 1, ,845 10,471 11,845 12,005 11,039 13,228 13,646 16,256 17,436 16,042 14,241 14,124 15,097 14,049 13,156 10,705 7,562 4,234 2,319 1, ,472 10,305 11,943 11,965 11,299 13,243 13,462 15,689 17,340 16,327 14,413 13,944 14,730 14,265 13,212 11,035 7,990 4,492 2,393 1, ,701 10,076 11,946 11,809 11,640 13,210 13,272 15,041 17,150 16,686 14,552 13,805 14,296 14,484 13,203 11,413 8,359 4,791 2,514 1, ,412 9,946 11,903 11,665 12,036 13,102 13,367 14,252 17,153 16,992 14,801 13,717 13,905 14,593 13,299 11,697 8,766 5,074 2,649 1, ,443 9,832 11,806 11,676 12,355 13,201 13,414 13,753 16,965 17,311 15,010 13,724 13,638 14,490 13,497 11,887 9,053 5,521 2,778 1, ,607 9,736 11,689 11,817 12,419 13,468 13,538 13,508 16,702 17,395 15,312 13,742 13,502 14,250 13,700 12,042 9,349 5,917 2,929 1, ,948 9,700 11,564 11,939 12,396 13,838 13,720 13,429 16,250 17,415 15,648 13,945 13,366 13,956 13,935 12,112 9,643 6,278 3,154 1, ,324 9,677 11,452 12,024 12,264 14,351 13,874 13,458 15,729 17,378 16,112 14,152 13,293 13,549 14,174 12,120 10,019 6,582 3,380 1, ,771 9,711 11,364 12,067 12,151 14,920 13,875 13,672 15,074 17,436 16,479 14,411 13,253 13,201 14,313 12,230 10,297 6,895 3,595 1, ,332 9,756 11,295 11,989 12,182 15,303 14,122 13,814 14,640 17,318 16,840 14,652 13,302 12,978 14,222 12,452 10,475 7,143 3,954 1, ,716 9,839 11,231 11,898 12,316 15,357 14,478 13,994 14,469 17,121 16,923 14,957 13,352 12,870 14,008 12,634 10,617 7,385 4,261 2, ,171 9,940 11,199 11,795 12,445 15,293 14,927 14,242 14,433 16,710 16,995 15,276 13,553 12,751 13,711 12,887 10,701 7,643 4,531 2, ,484 10,079 11,197 11,693 12,525 15,071 15,523 14,447 14,450 16,193 16,952 15,709 13,763 12,689 13,347 13,111 10,729 7,940 4,780 2, ,759 10,212 11,227 11,593 12,553 14,890 16,128 14,461 14,679 15,545 16,985 16,044 14,021 12,672 13,036 13,244 10,823 8,168 5,037 2, ,077 10,375 11,298 11,523 12,463 14,851 16,531 14,654 14,833 15,142 16,853 16,355 14,219 12,730 12,816 13,182 11,034 8,307 5,235 2,676

15 POPULATION PROJECTIONS ST. JOHN'S CMA Medium Scenario, April 2014 Department of Finance Males ,790 6,301 6,783 7,407 7,732 8,109 7,339 7,004 6,432 5,109 3,729 3,207 2,986 2,838 2,582 1,983 1, ,085 6,140 6,683 7,161 7,560 8,147 7,489 7,166 6,554 5,475 3,888 3,269 2,989 2,798 2,568 1,965 1, ,737 6,104 6,584 7,040 7,452 8,174 7,652 7,286 6,693 5,791 4,136 3,345 3,032 2,744 2,551 1,909 1, ,942 5,989 6,544 6,990 7,394 8,189 7,990 7,497 6,938 6,034 4,455 3,483 3,048 2,725 2,506 1,868 1, ,124 5,983 6,455 6,865 7,322 8,236 8,318 7,703 7,154 6,325 4,757 3,643 3,058 2,731 2,412 1,852 1, ,059 5,958 6,340 6,659 7,347 8,347 8,466 7,855 7,331 6,474 5,148 3,823 3,088 2,723 2,349 1,845 1, ,040 5,965 6,370 6,555 7,162 8,531 8,405 7,929 7,429 6,582 5,592 3,926 3,135 2,755 2,341 1,920 1, ,714 5,863 6,326 6,510 7,143 8,526 8,288 7,919 7,564 6,698 5,862 4,136 3,217 2,844 2,301 1,940 1, ,155 5,712 6,113 6,503 7,023 8,179 7,988 7,849 7,547 6,851 5,968 4,349 3,338 2,855 2,350 1,929 1, ,800 5,496 6,060 6,412 6,925 7,882 7,728 7,797 7,530 6,967 6,160 4,555 3,436 2,891 2,371 1,915 1, ,128 5,216 5,946 6,393 6,795 7,596 7,400 7,628 7,435 7,093 6,264 4,921 3,557 2,858 2,334 1,936 1, ,842 5,033 5,823 6,275 6,577 7,499 7,185 7,468 7,482 7,131 6,401 5,243 3,668 2,905 2,355 1,935 1, ,847 4,916 5,648 6,141 6,433 7,292 6,846 7,109 7,410 7,063 6,450 5,474 3,899 2,943 2,429 1,919 1, ,926 4,804 5,534 5,978 6,430 7,231 6,691 6,857 7,449 7,151 6,612 5,658 4,170 3,019 2,470 1,944 1, ,266 4,799 5,313 5,922 6,378 7,198 6,653 6,688 7,445 7,272 6,747 5,909 4,349 3,161 2,494 1,988 1, ,238 4,755 5,075 5,849 6,406 7,134 6,451 6,628 7,359 7,253 6,806 6,034 4,670 3,277 2,524 1,987 1, ,993 4,649 5,048 5,790 6,476 7,066 6,562 6,623 7,257 7,306 6,916 6,174 5,015 3,410 2,631 1,984 1, ,931 4,614 5,013 5,712 6,482 7,056 6,782 6,631 7,135 7,373 7,034 6,283 5,324 3,662 2,695 2,066 1, ,136 4,703 4,992 5,611 6,427 7,196 6,933 6,688 6,966 7,540 7,104 6,531 5,485 3,935 2,791 2,127 1, ,685 4,678 5,058 5,452 6,278 7,246 6,899 6,724 6,901 7,558 7,091 6,689 5,750 4,137 2,896 2,177 1, ,316 4,720 5,031 5,363 6,102 7,301 6,911 6,674 6,837 7,606 7,126 6,788 5,908 4,483 3,024 2,227 1,525 1, ,354 4,764 5,031 5,267 6,263 7,152 7,037 6,593 6,936 7,460 7,269 6,916 6,047 4,830 3,140 2,328 1,573 1, ,201 4,903 5,101 5,223 6,318 7,371 7,271 6,759 6,899 7,377 7,428 7,011 6,162 5,160 3,391 2,353 1,679 1, ,290 5,121 5,230 5,225 6,169 7,497 7,483 6,952 6,998 7,265 7,640 7,207 6,439 5,336 3,682 2,460 1,728 1, ,805 5,325 5,222 5,328 5,947 7,921 7,850 7,129 7,194 7,303 7,700 7,382 6,673 5,675 3,837 2,606 1,777 1, ,946 5,503 5,316 5,323 5,817 8,302 8,163 7,291 7,236 7,370 7,742 7,459 6,838 5,836 4,194 2,778 1,804 1, ,666 5,512 5,407 5,315 5,693 8,234 8,498 7,702 7,222 7,467 7,736 7,536 6,953 6,026 4,577 2,859 1,928 1, ,905 5,479 5,534 5,292 5,622 7,904 8,683 8,037 7,393 7,443 7,644 7,661 7,094 6,094 4,898 3,075 2,015 1, ,421 5,394 5,736 5,302 5,576 7,621 8,527 8,251 7,471 7,387 7,451 7,788 7,066 6,286 5,093 3,283 2,100 1, ,860 5,328 5,924 5,247 5,599 7,215 8,475 8,374 7,550 7,355 7,284 7,817 7,106 6,430 5,332 3,458 2,209 1, ,113 5,321 6,027 5,269 5,590 6,889 8,319 8,403 7,615 7,318 7,160 7,766 7,185 6,505 5,494 3,723 2,329 1, ,231 5,352 6,047 5,360 5,541 6,698 8,110 8,265 7,729 7,248 7,110 7,610 7,294 6,523 5,658 3,973 2,428 1, ,339 5,384 6,010 5,498 5,488 6,527 7,797 8,076 7,882 7,301 7,033 7,406 7,429 6,519 5,827 4,203 2,581 1, ,747 5,421 5,928 5,701 5,499 6,443 7,495 7,958 8,085 7,373 7,004 7,190 7,549 6,488 6,030 4,371 2,764 1, ,560 5,424 5,869 5,902 5,469 6,565 7,181 7,963 8,259 7,509 7,002 7,036 7,563 6,532 6,180 4,586 2,922 1, ,569 5,426 5,889 6,061 5,527 6,681 6,993 7,957 8,376 7,656 7,026 6,971 7,527 6,596 6,284 4,740 3,142 1, ,106 5,341 5,961 6,091 5,632 6,710 6,896 7,849 8,307 7,829 7,009 6,943 7,366 6,722 6,323 4,900 3,375 1, ,339 5,248 6,008 6,064 5,777 6,693 6,826 7,607 8,178 7,989 7,099 6,882 7,170 6,845 6,315 5,056 3,581 1, ,340 5,141 6,012 5,982 5,952 6,657 6,752 7,309 8,039 8,151 7,160 6,828 6,963 6,952 6,299 5,232 3,729 1, ,574 5,067 5,998 5,898 6,142 6,589 6,834 6,926 8,013 8,275 7,262 6,788 6,802 6,967 6,349 5,368 3,915 2,019 1, ,016 5,014 5,950 5,904 6,278 6,603 6,929 6,686 7,965 8,363 7,370 6,776 6,708 6,923 6,417 5,462 4,054 2,175 1, ,530 4,974 5,897 5,976 6,305 6,729 6,997 6,600 7,869 8,325 7,535 6,757 6,688 6,782 6,537 5,515 4,199 2,330 1, ,110 4,944 5,837 6,053 6,290 6,924 7,037 6,577 7,691 8,255 7,731 6,853 6,655 6,616 6,685 5,509 4,348 2,483 1, ,677 4,928 5,777 6,086 6,205 7,163 7,108 6,605 7,460 8,197 7,948 6,942 6,642 6,434 6,803 5,512 4,516 2,596 1, ,350 4,952 5,742 6,113 6,149 7,423 7,079 6,772 7,151 8,211 8,123 7,071 6,636 6,296 6,821 5,567 4,654 2,724 1, ,051 4,974 5,699 6,079 6,160 7,575 7,161 6,913 6,943 8,192 8,236 7,181 6,670 6,225 6,797 5,652 4,740 2,832 1, ,713 5,021 5,676 6,021 6,234 7,587 7,344 6,999 6,893 8,146 8,203 7,348 6,670 6,225 6,672 5,762 4,791 2,935 1, ,364 5,076 5,645 5,977 6,300 7,538 7,587 7,092 6,904 7,981 8,161 7,539 6,765 6,200 6,515 5,906 4,792 3,049 1, ,973 5,143 5,658 5,930 6,346 7,404 7,859 7,198 6,946 7,753 8,103 7,729 6,877 6,197 6,341 6,025 4,810 3,173 1, ,552 5,211 5,670 5,870 6,362 7,291 8,152 7,155 7,122 7,456 8,112 7,880 6,998 6,202 6,242 6,053 4,861 3,279 1, ,153 5,285 5,710 5,840 6,304 7,262 8,321 7,225 7,264 7,272 8,074 7,977 7,101 6,229 6,166 6,041 4,944 3,343 2,

16 POPULATION PROJECTIONS ST. JOHN'S CMA Medium Scenario, April 2014 Department of Finance Females ,016 5,989 6,466 6,946 7,579 8,153 7,553 7,201 6,355 4,938 3,576 3,230 3,145 2,901 2,951 2,520 1, ,921 5,911 6,368 6,679 7,341 8,416 7,678 7,422 6,528 5,426 3,713 3,312 3,114 2,889 2,951 2,537 1,786 1, ,143 5,874 6,260 6,545 7,222 8,531 7,871 7,576 6,775 5,733 4,087 3,343 3,166 2,911 2,916 2,488 1,903 1, ,667 5,820 6,264 6,437 7,138 8,634 8,197 7,764 7,003 6,101 4,388 3,429 3,151 2,963 2,864 2,438 2,036 1, ,210 5,808 6,144 6,359 7,130 8,636 8,557 7,901 7,292 6,436 4,744 3,546 3,158 3,031 2,709 2,501 2,115 1, ,514 5,834 6,000 6,311 6,957 8,754 8,802 8,088 7,452 6,629 5,200 3,683 3,176 3,017 2,722 2,507 2,119 1, ,130 5,832 5,993 6,293 6,704 8,768 8,641 8,027 7,630 6,767 5,569 3,849 3,203 3,052 2,727 2,564 2,147 1, ,053 5,714 5,935 6,274 6,636 8,761 8,556 8,124 7,764 6,988 5,770 4,207 3,241 3,086 2,771 2,549 2,173 1, ,994 5,532 5,832 6,220 6,569 8,438 8,280 8,108 7,787 7,098 6,100 4,457 3,335 3,084 2,780 2,568 2,159 1, ,940 5,268 5,820 6,177 6,542 8,082 7,942 8,150 7,807 7,295 6,370 4,720 3,429 3,062 2,842 2,488 2,174 1, ,760 4,990 5,764 6,106 6,592 7,688 7,609 8,174 7,859 7,355 6,487 5,073 3,569 3,050 2,839 2,531 2,225 1, ,456 4,861 5,619 6,018 6,378 7,509 7,359 8,038 7,830 7,431 6,621 5,463 3,741 3,067 2,849 2,515 2,289 1, ,162 4,731 5,502 5,901 6,205 7,373 7,171 7,802 7,820 7,493 6,775 5,669 4,024 3,105 2,861 2,527 2,271 1, ,407 4,648 5,360 5,805 6,244 7,430 7,004 7,510 7,849 7,505 6,956 5,962 4,231 3,219 2,884 2,548 2,257 1,660 1, ,799 4,612 5,131 5,719 6,233 7,526 6,889 7,241 7,955 7,556 7,136 6,190 4,493 3,319 2,866 2,649 2,184 1,694 1, ,063 4,461 4,950 5,680 6,261 7,604 6,683 7,043 7,938 7,671 7,266 6,279 4,859 3,441 2,871 2,660 2,212 1,750 1, ,688 4,349 4,886 5,649 6,299 7,469 6,734 6,969 7,908 7,775 7,336 6,489 5,234 3,606 2,875 2,667 2,170 1,791 1, ,386 4,389 4,782 5,566 6,350 7,197 6,961 6,933 7,793 7,853 7,459 6,651 5,461 3,883 2,934 2,677 2,166 1,789 1, ,440 4,421 4,761 5,499 6,293 7,233 7,109 6,919 7,615 8,027 7,519 6,817 5,806 4,089 3,049 2,658 2,228 1,771 1, ,813 4,378 4,757 5,239 6,173 7,235 7,095 6,846 7,459 8,163 7,578 7,060 5,997 4,353 3,122 2,607 2,310 1,705 1, ,461 4,444 4,643 5,140 6,038 7,363 7,014 6,866 7,296 8,135 7,772 7,167 6,156 4,684 3,285 2,606 2,317 1,721 1, ,713 4,505 4,658 5,023 6,167 7,299 7,098 6,929 7,230 8,115 7,876 7,259 6,338 5,056 3,482 2,697 2,342 1,729 1, ,570 4,718 4,763 5,005 6,246 7,381 7,212 7,118 7,222 8,014 7,975 7,385 6,548 5,328 3,788 2,810 2,389 1,771 1, ,577 5,010 4,808 5,037 6,210 7,504 7,490 7,228 7,275 7,831 8,175 7,415 6,755 5,687 3,988 2,957 2,417 1,839 1, ,631 5,242 4,834 5,090 5,982 7,879 7,719 7,370 7,396 7,687 8,320 7,503 6,987 5,932 4,261 3,042 2,442 1,938 1, ,587 5,398 4,976 5,022 5,906 8,142 8,026 7,562 7,441 7,683 8,246 7,715 7,086 6,079 4,599 3,165 2,471 1,982 1, ,225 5,368 5,133 4,944 5,668 8,253 8,359 7,798 7,562 7,719 8,233 7,858 7,176 6,255 4,997 3,316 2,503 1,995 1, ,467 5,227 5,323 5,005 5,454 8,083 8,603 7,964 7,769 7,717 8,133 7,998 7,266 6,456 5,226 3,591 2,543 1,998 1, ,272 5,168 5,535 5,035 5,378 7,734 8,592 8,232 7,847 7,644 7,908 8,130 7,271 6,668 5,492 3,808 2,648 2,007 1, ,827 5,103 5,742 5,016 5,308 7,294 8,575 8,399 7,982 7,593 7,663 8,243 7,327 6,822 5,748 4,039 2,728 2,021 1, ,454 5,106 5,914 5,067 5,218 6,953 8,395 8,600 8,063 7,591 7,494 8,190 7,463 6,904 5,915 4,410 2,851 2,045 1, ,883 5,153 5,934 5,167 5,161 6,702 8,149 8,654 8,178 7,610 7,360 8,071 7,551 7,001 6,079 4,722 2,983 2,102 1, ,245 5,168 5,920 5,282 5,174 6,510 7,802 8,661 8,305 7,663 7,233 7,916 7,650 7,065 6,263 4,968 3,170 2,157 1, ,911 5,203 5,859 5,477 5,187 6,439 7,455 8,621 8,542 7,765 7,143 7,686 7,777 7,073 6,475 5,227 3,362 2,250 1, ,838 5,210 5,803 5,703 5,212 6,453 7,107 8,666 8,752 7,928 7,122 7,449 7,882 7,118 6,632 5,478 3,580 2,325 1,393 1, ,018 5,195 5,836 5,887 5,307 6,477 6,917 8,598 9,026 8,071 7,173 7,295 7,830 7,247 6,726 5,639 3,892 2,426 1,424 1, ,739 5,130 5,884 5,914 5,407 6,518 6,750 8,407 9,129 8,213 7,232 7,181 7,731 7,327 6,833 5,805 4,187 2,557 1,466 1, ,133 5,057 5,935 5,901 5,522 6,550 6,636 8,082 9,162 8,338 7,314 7,062 7,560 7,420 6,897 5,979 4,409 2,710 1,507 1, ,361 4,935 5,934 5,827 5,688 6,553 6,520 7,732 9,111 8,535 7,392 6,977 7,333 7,532 6,904 6,181 4,630 2,885 1,583 1, ,838 4,879 5,905 5,767 5,894 6,513 6,533 7,326 9,140 8,717 7,539 6,929 7,103 7,626 6,950 6,329 4,851 3,055 1,648 1, ,427 4,818 5,856 5,772 6,077 6,598 6,485 7,067 9,000 8,948 7,640 6,948 6,930 7,567 7,080 6,425 4,999 3,346 1,716 1, ,077 4,762 5,792 5,841 6,114 6,739 6,541 6,908 8,833 9,070 7,777 6,985 6,814 7,468 7,163 6,527 5,150 3,587 1,812 1, ,838 4,756 5,727 5,886 6,106 6,914 6,683 6,852 8,559 9,160 7,917 7,092 6,711 7,340 7,250 6,603 5,295 3,795 1,950 1, ,647 4,749 5,675 5,938 6,059 7,188 6,766 6,853 8,269 9,181 8,164 7,210 6,651 7,115 7,371 6,608 5,503 3,986 2,073 1, ,421 4,759 5,622 5,954 6,002 7,497 6,796 6,900 7,923 9,225 8,356 7,340 6,617 6,905 7,492 6,663 5,643 4,171 2,201 1, ,281 4,782 5,596 5,910 6,022 7,728 6,961 6,901 7,697 9,126 8,604 7,471 6,632 6,753 7,425 6,800 5,735 4,311 2,431 1, ,003 4,818 5,555 5,877 6,082 7,770 7,134 6,995 7,576 8,975 8,720 7,609 6,682 6,645 7,336 6,872 5,826 4,450 2,607 1, ,807 4,864 5,554 5,818 6,145 7,755 7,340 7,150 7,529 8,729 8,834 7,737 6,788 6,551 7,196 6,981 5,909 4,594 2,761 1, ,511 4,936 5,539 5,763 6,179 7,667 7,664 7,249 7,504 8,440 8,849 7,980 6,886 6,492 7,006 7,086 5,919 4,767 2,911 1, ,207 5,001 5,557 5,723 6,191 7,599 7,976 7,306 7,557 8,089 8,873 8,164 7,023 6,470 6,794 7,191 5,962 4,889 3,053 1, ,924 5,090 5,588 5,683 6,159 7,589 8,210 7,429 7,569 7,870 8,779 8,378 7,118 6,501 6,650 7,141 6,090 4,964 3,167 1,949