How Will Technology Shape Our Future?

Transcription

1 How Will Technology Shape Our Future? Tom Franke University of New Hampshire At NERCOMP 2007 Copyright Thomas L Franke (2006). This work is the intellectual property of the author. Permission is granted for this material to be shared for non-commercial, educational purposes, provided that this copyright statement appears on the reproduced materials and notice is given that the copying is by permission of the author. To disseminate otherwise or to republish requires written permission from the author.

2 What this session is not... how to/practical a survey of future technologies (ala Gartner)

3 What this session is... reflection on three expert, contemporary, but sharply diverging, views of the future our technology may bring forth: constraint/collapse (Heinberg s peak oil scenario) globalization (Friedman s flat world) technological utopia (Kurzweil s singularity)

4 Selection of Scenarios Evidence based Reason based Some intelligent support Excluded: faith based and total annihilation scenarios

5 Goals thoughtful reflection on the part of the participants attendees will be stimulated to investigate further bibliography

6 The Books Richard Heinberg, The Party s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies. Richard Heinberg, Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World. Thomas L. Friedman, The World is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century. Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology.

7 Summarize the three views What are the main drivers of change? What are the primary information sources? What are stages of history? What is the timeline? What are implications for our future? What can we do? What could derail the scenario? What is the role of technology?

8 Discussion (at end) What are the implications for education generally? What are the implications for higher education (and faculty) specifically? What are the implications for technology leaders (and support) specifically?

9 The Party s Over: Heinberg s Peak Oil Scenario-1 Main drivers: Energy & complexity History defined by technology stages: Stone age-industrial age Industrial societies built on fossil fuels Heinberg: Petroleum Era = Petroleum Interval or Industrial Bubble Sources: Petroleum Geologists

10 The Party s Over: Heinberg s Peak Oil Scenario-2 Peak oil is a near-point phenomenon ( ) Four options: Last One Standing Powerdown Magic Elixer Building lifeboats

11 The World is Flat: Friedman s Flat Earth Scenario- 1 Drivers: Economic competition & technology Globalization Globalization 1.0: (brawn) Globalization 2.0: (multinational companies) Globalization 3.0 (flat world): present (individual empowerment to collaborate & compete globally)

12 The World is Flat: Friedman s Flat Earth Scenario-2 Rising of individuals and nonwestern cultures Empowered by info technology Globalization will continue

13 The World is Flat: Friedman s Flat Earth Scenario-3 Five Action Areas for compassionate flatism ( Progressive agenda) Leadership-hope & challenge (emphasize Basic research & science & engineering) Muscles-empower individuals (portable benefits, lifelong learning) Cushions-social security, wage insurance Social activism-ecology, labor standards Parenting-push education and performance

14 The Singularity is Near: Kurzweil s Singularity Scenario-1 Main drivers: evolution & information Fundamental premises: Law of accelerating returns Evolution moves toward complexity There s always an idea that matters.

15 The Singularity is Near: Kurzweil s Singularity Scenario-2 6 information epochs: 1. Physics & chemistry (info in atomic) 2. Biology (info in dna) 3. Brains (info in neural structures) 4. Technology (info in hw & sw design) NOW 5. Merger of tech & human intelligence , including reverse engineering human brain 6. Universe Wakes Up (patterns of matter & energy saturated with intelligence) ?

16 The Singularity is Near: Kurzweil s Singularity Scenario-3 Epoch 5: GNR revolution Genomics-gene therapies at the cellular level Nanotechnology (molecular nano-technology MNT)-Nanobots will eliminate scarcity (incl. energy) Robotics-Intelligent machines & humanmachine hybrids Strong AI (Robotics)- comparable in importance to...advent of biology By 2050 $1,000 computer = all human brains on earth

17 Provocative thought: Heinberg the prospects for maintaining the coherence of large nation states like the US... appear dim. Lacking an industrial infrastructure of production, transportation, communication, and control, large nations may eventually devolve into regional enclaves... (Party s Over, pp ).

18 Provocative thought: Friedman In China today, Bill Gates is Britney Spears. In America today, Britney Spears is Britney Spears and that is our problem (World is Flat, p. 351).

19 Provocative thought: Kurzweil Early in the second decade of this century, the Web will provide full immersion visual-auditory virtual reality with images written directly to our retinas from our eyeglasses and lenses and very highbandwidth wireless internet access woven in our clothing. These capabilities will not be restricted just to the privileged. Just like cell phones, by the time they work well they will be everywhere (Singularity, p. 472).

20 Discussion What are the implications for education generally? What are the implications for higher education and faculty? What are the implications for technology leaders and supporters?

21 Contact Information Tom Franke, Asst. VP & CIO University of New Hampshire 105 Main Street-307 Thompson Hall Durham, NH

22 Bibliography Primary Sources: Friedman, Thomas L. The World is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century (updated and expanded edition). Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2006 (first edition, 2005). Heinberg, Richard. The Party s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies (revised and updated edition). New Society Publishers, 2005 (first edition, 2003). Heinberg, Richard. Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World. New Society Publishers, Kurzweil, Ray. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. Penguin Books, 2005.

23 Bibliography Additional resources: On the Singularity: KurzweilAI.net includes over six hundred articles by over one hundred big thinkers. Singularity.com news and information more specifically related to the book. Kurzweil includes an extensive bibliography and 111 pages of notes in the book.

24 Bibliography Additional resources: On Peak Oil: Deffeyes, Kenneth S. Hubbert s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage. Princeton University Press, This is an elaboration on the science and evidence for peak oil from the perspective of a petroleum geologist who worked for Shell Oil before joining the faculty at Princeton. Heinberg, Richard. The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism and Economic Collapse. New Society Publishers, Heinberg s third book apparently focuses on government policy for the impending decline.

25 Bibliography Additional resources: On Peak Oil: Tainter, Joseph A. The Collapse of Complex Societies. In series, New Studies in Archeology. Cambridge University Press, Heinberg leans heavily on Tainter s historical analysis of social collapse, which he calls widely recognized as the standard work on the topic (Party s Over, p. 34). Web site of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO). Includes newsletters of the association, links to national sites, articles, conferences, and recent developments, as well as links to other sites on this topic. Declaring that Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon, this site explores social implications of peak oil with somewhat of a survivalist slant.

26 Bibliography Additional resources: On the Flat World: Friedman does not provide a bibliography. He does document many of his points, especially specific data, in good reportorial fashion, but no other books (except his own prior book) appear as key influences. A search on his book s title will bring up information about Friedman s book and speaking engagements. A search on the term flat earth will bring up information about the flat earth society, which believes the world is literally flat! It s better to search on globalization, which yields sites such as this:

27 Bibliography Additional resources: On the Flat World: z/index.htm : Site provides links and a bibliography. It is the site of the Global Policy Forum.. obalization/ provides an overview and links. The debates link gives a succinct summary of some contentious issues from a social science perspective.