Foreign ExchanGe FOREX

Transcription

1 Foreign ExchanGe FOREX

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3 April 30, 2013 TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) -- Taiwan's economic growth slowed in the first quarter as global demand for the island's electronics exports remained subdued. The government said Tuesday the economy expanded 1.5 percent from a year earlier, which was far below expectations of 3.2 percent. Exports grew 2.4 percent to $72.6 billion in the January-March period. That was far below target, mainly because of the slower economic recovery in China and Europe, the island's two main export markets. The government said some export orders for high-tech goods shifted to Japan because of the weaker yen. There was robust growth in semiconductor exports but overall export growth was hurt by the weak global recovery and declining sales at Taiwan's largest smartphone maker, HTC Corp. HTC has suffered component shortages amid efforts to launch a new flagship model

4 Foreign Exchange Rates Exchange rate price of one currency in terms of another (multiply foreign P by exchange rate to get U.S. price) Fixed rate rate of exchange stays the same; in past basis was gold Flexible rate (floating) based on supply and demand for each currency

5 Foreign Exchange Rates Flexible rates began in 1971 when U.S. went off the gold standard U.S. imports increased and foreigners were gaining U.S. dollars & exchanging them for U.S. gold Foreign exchange market - wherever one currency is exchanged for another

6 Foreign Exchange Appreciation (strong dollar) dollar buys more of another currency & results in less expensive imports and more expensive exports SID Strong Currency Imports Increase (b/c cheaper) Trade Deficit

7 Foreign Exchange Depreciation (weak dollar) dollar buys less of another currency & results in more expensive imports and less expensive exports WES Weak Currency Cheap Exports (so X increase) Trade Surplus

8 FOREX shifts FEITRRS Incomes go up or down (can buy more or less of foreign goods) Tastes Relative price level (inflation in one nation makes foreign goods cheaper) Real Interest Rates (want to earn on financial assets abroad if rates are higher) Speculation

9 FEITRR FOREX Foreign Exchange I.T.R.R. Exchange Rate Determinants Tastes (Consumer Preference) Ex. a preference for Japanese goods creates an increase in the supply of dollars in the currency exchange market which leads to depreciation of the Dollar and an appreciation of Yen Income (relative to another economy) Ex. If Mexico s economy is strong and the U.S. economy is in recession, then Mexicans will buy more American goods, increasing the demand for the Dollar, causing the Dollar to appreciate and the Peso to depreciate

10 Relative Price Level FEITRRS cont Ex. If the price level is higher in Canada than in the United States, then American goods are relatively cheaper than Canadian goods, thus Canadians will import more American goods causing the U.S. Dollar to appreciate and the Canadian Dollar to depreciate. Real Interest Rate (Leads to Speculation) Ex. If U.S. investors expect that Swiss interest rates will climb in the future, then Americans will demand Swiss Francs in order to earn the higher rates of return in Switzerland. This will cause the Dollar to depreciate and the Swiss Franc to appreciate. Speculation: If U.S. investors

11 FEITRRS cont Speculation: If U.S. investors expect that Swiss interest rates will climb in the future, then American will D Swiss Francs in order to earn the higher rates of return in Switzerland. This will cause the Dollar to depreciate and the Swiss Franc to appreciate.

12 Other countries want U. S. goods when: -Ours are cheaper -Our inflation is less that theirs -Our interest rate is higher -The other country is growing faster These cause the dollar to APPRECIATE The $dollar depreciates when the opposite events occur. I have no idea why I made this purple

13 Graph Time

14 Dollar Price of 1 Yen THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET P The Market for Yen S y D y 0 Q e Quantity of Yen Q Redelsheimer s Graphs to Know AP Macro Review

15 Foreign Exchange $ price for yen $/Y S Yen price for $ Y/$ S D D Qty of yen Qty of $ Supply of yen from Japanese importers who must exchange them for $$ to buy U.S. goods Demand for yen by U.S. importers who need them to buy Japanese goods

16 Draw a FOREX graph with Increase in the Supply of U.S. Dollars relative to the Euro

17 / $ Increase in the Supply of U.S. Dollars relative to the Euro S $ S $ 1 e e 1 D $ q q 1 S $.: e (ex. rate) & Q $ Q $.: $ depreciates relative to

18 Now Draw a Decrease in the Supplyof Yen relative to the Euro

19 / Decrease in the Supply of Yen relative to the Euro S 1 S e 1 e D q 1 q S.: e & Q Q.: appreciates relative to

20 Increase in the Demand for the British Pound relative to the U.S. Dollar

21 .: appreciates relative to the $ Increase in the Demand for the British Pound relative to the U.S. Dollar $/ S e 1 e D D 1 q q 1 D.: e & Q Q

22 Decrease in the Demand for Yen relative to the British Pound

23 Decrease in the Demand for Yen relative to the British Pound / S e e 1 D 1 D q 1 q D.: e & Q Q.: depreciates relative to the

24 ADVANTAGES OF STRONGER CURRENCY CONSUMERS CAN BUY IMPORTS AT A LOWER PRICE TRAVELERS ABROAD CAN GET MORE FOREIGN CURRENCY INVESTORS CAN BUY MORE FOREIGN ASSETS 24

25 DISADVANTAGES OF STRONGER CURRENCY PRODUCERS WILL SELL FEWER EXPORTS FOREIGNERS TRAVELING INTO THE COUNTRY WILL FIND IT MORE EXPENSIVE FOREIGN INVESTMENT OF DOMESTIC ASSETS WILL BE MORE EXPENSIVE 25

26 ADVANTAGE OF A WEAKER CURRENCY PRODUCERS WILL SELL MORE EXPORTS IT BECOMES CHEAPER FOR FOREIGNERS TO TRAVEL INTO THE COUNTRY FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN DOMESTIC ASSETS WILL BECOME CHEAPER 26

27 DISADVANTAGES WEAKER CURRENCY DOMESTIC CONSUMERS PAY MORE FOR IMPORTS IT BECOMES MORE EXPENSIVE TO TRAVEL OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY MORE EXPENSIVE TO INVEST IN FOREIGN ASSETS 27

28 FOREX Aggregate Demand = Overall Demand: if $>, then AD > and U.S. prices go up. If GDP >, then AS goes up and inflation occurs

29 Expansionary Monetary Policy to Counteract a Recession w/ reinforcing effect on Net Exports Res. Ratio Disc. Rate Buy Bonds = ER,therefore MS causing i% which leads to I G so AD,resulting in PL and GDP R,making u% And now! Because i% either D $ or S $ which causes $ making U.S. goods relatively cheaper and foreign goods relatively more expensive causing X and M which means X N thereby reinforcing the increase in AD already caused by the increase in I G. ER = Excess Reserves MS = Money Supply i% = Nominal Interest Rate I G = Gross Private Investment D $ = Demand for dollars in FOREX X = Exports AD = Aggregate Demand PL = Price Level GDP R = Real Gross Domestic Product u% = Unemployment Rate S $ = Supply of Dollars in FOREX M = Imports, X N = Net Exports

30 Contractionary Monetary Policy to Counteract Inflation w/ reinforcing effect on Net Exports Res. Ratio Disc. Rate Sell Bonds = ER,therefore MS causing i% which leads to I G so AD,resulting in PL and GDP R,making u% And now! Because i% either D $ or S $ which causes $ making U.S. goods relatively more expensive and foreign goods relatively cheaper causing X and M which means X N thereby reinforcing the decrease in AD already caused by the decrease in I G. ER = Excess Reserves MS = Money Supply i% = Nominal Interest Rate I G = Gross Private Investment D $ = Demand for dollars in FOREX X = Exports AD = Aggregate Demand PL = Price Level GDP R = Real Gross Domestic Product u% = Unemployment Rate S $ = Supply of Dollars in FOREX M = Imports, X N = Net Exports

31 Expansionary Fiscal Policy Side-effect: Crowding-out of Investment and Net Exports A possible side-effect of increased government spending and reduced taxes is a budget deficit which may lead to the crowding-out of Gross Private Investment (I G ) and Net Exports (X N ) When G or T, then government must borrow in order to continue spending. This leads to an increase in the demand for loanable funds or a decrease in the supply of loanable funds, which results in r %. This change in r % leads to I G. In addition, the increase in r% causes D $ and/or S $ as investors seek higher returns in the U.S. This leads to $ which leads to X and M, so X N. Because I G and X N are direct components of AD, these decreases offset some of the increase in AD.

32 Contractionary Fiscal Policy Side-effect: Crowding-in of Investment and Net Exports A possible side-effect of decreased government spending and increased taxes is a budget surplus which may lead to the crowding-in of Gross Private Investment (I G ) and Net Exports (X N ) When G or T, then government develops a budget surplus This leads to a decrease in the demand for loanable funds or an increase in the supply of loanable funds, which results in r %. This change in r % leads to I G. In addition, the decrease in r% causes D $ and/or S $ as investors seek higher returns abroad. This leads to $ which leads to X and M, so X N. Because I G and X N are direct components of AD, these increases offset some of the decrease in AD.

33 An appreciation of the U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market could be caused by a decrease in which of the following? (a) U.S. interest rates (b) The U.S. consumer price index (c) Demand for the dollar by U.S. residents (d) Exports from the U.S. (e) The tariff on goods imported into the U.S.

34 (b) The U.S. consumer price index Lower prices increase demand for U.S. exports and appreciate the dollar.

35 If the real interest rate in the U.S. increases relative to that of the rest of the world, capital should flow (a) into the U.S. and the dollar will depreciate (b) into the U.S. and the dollar will appreciate (c) out of the U.S. and the dollar will depreciate (d) out of the U.S. and the dollar will appreciate (e) out of the U.S. and the value of the dollar will not change

36 (b) into the U.S. and the dollar will appreciate Higher U.S. interest rates attract more demand for our financial capital [CDs and bonds] & financial flows of foreign money will flow in to the U.S. to purchase these.

37 Assume that the world operates under a flexible exchange rate system. If the central bank of Mexico increases its MS but other countries do not change theirs, Mexico s inflation rate and the international value of the Mexican peso will most likely change in which of the following ways? International Inflation Rate Value of the Peso a. Increase Appreciate b. Increase Depreciate c. Increase No change d. Decrease Appreciate e. Decrease Depreciate

38 b. Increase Depreciate An increase in Mexico s MS means more pesos chasing the same goods as before, bringing on higher prices. This would decrease demand for Mexico s exports, depreciating the peso.

39 Assuming fixed exchange rates, if Mexico s rate of inflation increases relative to its trading partners, Mexico s imports and exports will most likely change in which of the following ways? Imports Exports a. Decrease Decrease b. Decrease Increase c. Increase Decrease d. Increase Increase e. No change No change

40 c. Increase Decrease A higher price level in Mexico will decrease demand for their products, depreciating the peso. However, the increase in the peso currency price relative to other countries makes their goods cheaper so their imports increase while their exports decrease as they have to pay more pesos

41 If the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the British pound changed from $2 per one pound to $3 per one pound, and domestic prices in both countries stayed the same, then the U.S. dollar would (a) depreciate, making U.S. imports from Britain more expensive (b) depreciate, making U.S. imports from Britain cheaper (c) appreciate, making U.S. imports from Britain more expensive (d) appreciate, making U.S. imports from Britain cheaper (e) purchase 3 times more British goods than before the change occurred

42 (a) depreciate, making U.S. imports from Britain more expensive If the exchange rate went from $2 per one pound to $3 per one pound, and domestic prices in both countries stayed the same, then The U.S. dollar goes down in value because a pound cost me $2, now it costs $3, making pounds more expensive and therefore the Supply of U.S. dollars would decrease because that is what Americans and Brits will be taking out of the banks to use.

43 Which of the following groups would most likely gain from unanticipated inflation? (a) Landlords who own apartments in cities with rent controls. (b) Individuals who have fixed retirement incomes. (c) Individuals who earn high incomes (d) Individuals who have borrowed money at fixed interest rates (e) Banks that have loaned all excess reserves at a fixed interest rate.

44 (d) Individuals who have borrowed money at fixed interest rates Borrowers borrowed todays money & paid back cheaper money.

45 Real Interest Rate, r LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET S r This graph shows how the supply and demand for loanable funds affects real interest rates! D Q Quantity of Loanable Funds Redelsheimer s Graphs to Know AP Macro Review

46 Loanable Funds Market Graph (Long-Term Interest Rates) What changes Supply: 1. Increase in Household savings 2. Increase in Gov t savings 3. Increase in Business savings 4. Increase in Business savings 5. Increase in Foreigners savings What changes Demand: 1. Increase in Household borrowing 2. Increase in business Investment 3. Increase in Foreign borrowing 4. Increase in Government borrowing (When the gov t has a budget deficit!) = (the crowding -out effect) Redelsheimer s Graphs to Know AP Macro Review