Domestic Tourism and Brexit Impacts. Sharon Orrell 13th September 2016

Transcription

1 Domestic Tourism and Brexit Impacts Sharon Orrell 13th September

2 1. Before Brexit 2

3 The last decade in domestic tourism Trips (m) 55 Domestic Overnight Tourism in England Rolling 12 Month Trend vs Holiday VFR +7% +13% Business +2% Source: GBTS 3

4 2016 Domestic Overnight Trends Jan May YTD Trip Volumes Trip Volume (millions) Holiday Business VFR YOY % % % Source: GBTS 4

5 Volume growth since 2008 has been driven by the short break market Trips (m) Domestic Holiday Visits in England Average holiday trip 3.65 nights Average holiday trip 3.35 nights nights 4+ nights Source: GBTS 5

6 which is linked to a change in where we go Trips (m) 18 Domestic Holiday Trips in England - Destination type Seaside Large city/ large town Source: GBTS 6

7 in the profile of trip takers Trips (m) Domestic Holidays by Social Grade vs % -12% +1% AB C1 C2DE Source: GBTS 7

8 and in what we re choosing to spend money on 160 Indexed holiday spending by category: 2006 = All spending Eating & Drinking Out Accommodation Other (travel, shopping, entertainment) Source: GBTS 8

9 Did you know. We took more holidays as a nation last year than at any point in the last decade Trips (m) GB Residents - Domestic and Overseas Holiday Trips Domestic Holidays Overseas Holidays Source: GBTS / IPS 9

10 Jan'12 Feb'12 Mar'12 Apr'12 May'12 Jun'12 Jul'12 Aug'12 Sep'12 Oct'12 Nov'12 Dec'12 Jan'13 Feb'13 Mar'13 Apr'13 May'13 Jun'13 Jul'13 Aug'13 Sep'13 Oct'13 Nov'13 Dec'13 Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 Jul'14 Aug'14 Sep'14 Oct'14 Nov'14 Dec'14 Jan'15 Feb'15 Mar'15 Apr'15 May'15 Jun'15 Jul'15 Aug'15 Sep'15 Oct'15 Nov'15 Dec'15 Jan'16 Feb'16 Mar'16 Apr'16 May'16 Jun'16 Jul'16 Jan'12 Mar'12 May'12 Jul'12 Sep'12 Nov'12 Jan'13 Mar'13 May'13 Jul'13 Sep'13 Nov'13 Jan'14 Mar'14 May'14 Jul'14 Sep'14 Nov'14 Jan'15 Mar'15 May'15 Jul'15 Sep'15 Nov'15 Jan'16 Mar'16 May'16 Jul' has also seen growth in the day visit market Tourism day visit volumes in England (rolling 12 month millions of trips) Jan Jul YTD +14% Tourism day visit spending in England (rolling 12 month millions) Jan Jul YTD +6% Source: GBDVS 10

11 2. After Brexit 11

12 Tourism business confidence is at a historically high level 70 Tourism Business Confidence Next 2-3 Months % "Very Confident" 65% % Easter 2012 June 2012 July 2012 Sept 2012 Nov 2012 Jan 2013 Apr 2013 July 2013 Sept 2013 Nov 2013 Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 Sept 2014 Nov 2014 Jan 2015 June 2015 Sept 2015 Nov 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 Jul 2016 Accommodation Attractions Source: VE Tourism Business Monitor 12

13 How has Brexit affected businesses so far? ACCOMMODATION 23 More enquiries/ bookings from Fewer enquiries, bookings OR cancellations from Fewer enquiries/ bookings from Cancellations from (13) (87) Source: VE Tourism Business Monitor July

14 How has Brexit affected businesses so far? ACCOMMODATION 23 8 More enquiries/ bookings from Fewer enquiries, bookings OR cancellations from Fewer enquiries/ bookings from Cancellations from though over 2/3 of accommodation providers and over 90% of attractions were reporting no impacts at this point (13) (87) Source: VE Tourism Business Monitor July

15 And what impacts do they anticipate? ACCOMMODATION 53 More visitors from 45 Fewer visitors from (13) 5 (87) ATTRACTIONS More visitors from Fewer visitors from Source: VE Tourism Business Monitor July

16 Business optimism mirrored in consumer expectations for 2016 of (slightly) more UK but fewer overseas holidays Expectations of Holidays in 2016 compared to 2015 Holidays Abroad UK Holidays More Same Less Don't Know Source: VE Trip Tracker August

17 Increased UK trip taking is primarily driven by ongoing UK positives Brexit relatively less important than other external factors such as safety/security and weather Reasons for Changing Behaviour in 2016 Will Take More UK Breaks (18%) Just like taking holidays / breaks in UK 40% Easier / more convenient to travel in UK 36% ANY Just Like OR More convenient 58% Holidays / breaks abroad generally too expensive 21% Drop in exchange rates following referendum 14% ANY expense / exchange rates 32% Concerns about safety / security / terrorism 21% Different special events this year e.g weddings 21% UK weather better this year 18% I feel financially better off this year 16% Other change in personal circumstances 16% No real reason just happened that way 9% Source: VE Trip Tracker August

18 1in 5 say the exchange rate has already affected holiday plans (and the same number anticipate this happening) in total, 28% either have been affected, or think they will be % holiday plans have been / will be affected by exchange rate (No or not sure) Has affected plans Expect to affect plans Either has or will Yes No Not sure Source: ICM Omnibus August

19 In most cases, exchange rate impacts relate to cutting back spend on overseas trips Impact of change in the value of the pound Have already done this (22%) Cut back spending on foreign holiday in some other way 35% Delayed plans for a holiday abroad 31% Booked UK holiday instead of going abroad 25% Decided not to travel abroad didn t replace 24% Booked trip to different foreign country 15% Affected plans in some other way 5% Source: ICM Omnibus August

20 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 A watch out: future leisure spending will also be influenced by consumer confidence Personal Financial Situation next 12 Months General Economic Situation Next 12 Months Source: GfK / Eurostat Consumer Confidence Monitor 20

21 The signs are that 2016 has been a good year for domestic tourism but the drivers of consumer behaviour are a little more complex than the headlines suggest 21

22 Domestic Tourism and Brexit Impacts Sharon Orrell 13th September