Release #2469 Release Date: Thursday, April 17, 2014

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1 THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street San Francisco, CA (415) FAX: (415) Release #2469 Release Date: Thursday, April 17, 2014 EXAMINING CALIFORNIA VOTER VIEWS ABOUT TAXES, GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND PROPOSITION 13. By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN ) CSU Faculty Fellow contact: Professor Carl Stempel (510) A new survey by The Field Poll explores the views of California voters about taxes, government spending and the state s landmark property tax reduction amendment, Proposition 13. The study, completed among 1,000 California registered voters in early April, was developed in collaboration with Professor Carl Stempel, of the California State University, East Bay as part of the CSU-Field Faculty Fellowship Program. The survey s main findings include the following: By a 54% to 35% margin, most California voters say they prefer lower taxes and fewer government services to higher taxes and more government services. Opinions are highly partisan. prefer higher taxes with more government services, 51% to 36%, but overwhelmingly favor lower taxes with fewer government services, 81% to 13%. Voters are divided when asked about the overall level of government spending in California. About four in ten voters (39%) support holding overall government spending at about current levels. An one in three (34%) favor reducing overall spending levels, while 24% prefer increasing them. However, when voters are asked whether state and local government spending in each of six specific program areas should be increased, reduced or left the same, there is much less support for spending reductions. Only small proportions of voter (between 8% and 15%) support less state and local government spending on the k-12 schools, mental health, road and highway building and repair, and law enforcement and police. In the case of k-12 schools and mental health, majorities favor increased government spending. In the case of road and highway building and repair, and law enforcement and police, pluralities support keeping spending at current levels. Voters are divided when asked about government spending on environmental protection and public assistance programs. Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity Employer

2 The Field Poll #2469 Thursday, April 17, 2014 Page 2 Varying proportions of voters can correctly answer three questions about the tax provisions contained in California s landmark Proposition 13 property tax reduction amendment. A 42% plurality of voters is aware that the Prop. 13 tax reductions apply to both residential and commercial property; 53% understand that Prop. 13 requires a two-thirds majority of the votes in an election to increase local taxes; and 68% know that more recent homeowners living in similar homes in the same neighborhood generally pay higher property taxes than homeowners who have lived in their homes for longer periods. In each case, between 15% and 24% of voters volunteer that they don t know the correct answer, while between 17% and 34% give an incorrect reply. About half of voters (49%) say they generally support the idea of changing parts of Prop. 13, while 34% are opposed and 17% are undecided. There is strong bipartisan support for changing one aspect of Prop. 13. This relates to the fact that, because of the complexities in the way businesses and commercial properties are sold, their properties are not always reassessed when ownership is transferred. By a 69% to 17% margin, voters endorse changing this so that the property taxes of businesses and commercial properties are always reset and based on their current assessed value whenever they are sold or transferred. Only a minority of voters (39%) supports the idea of reducing Prop. 13 s two-thirds majority vote requirement to increase local taxes to a 55% majority. Note to Editors: See attached California Opinion Index report for a more detailed accounting of the data referenced in this report. 30

3 The Field Poll #2469 Thursday, April 17, 2014 Page 3 Methodological Details Information About The Survey The findings in this report are based on a Field Poll completed March 18-April 5, 2014 among a random sample of 1,000 registered voters in California. Professor Carl Stempel of California State University, East Bay collaborated with The Field Poll to develop the questions for this series as part of the CSU-Field Faculty Fellowship Program. Interviewing was conducted by telephone using live interviewers working from Field Research Corporation's central location telephone interviewing facilities in San Diego. Up to six attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter from the state's registered voter rolls on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. Interviewing was completed on either a voter's cell phone or a regular landline phone, depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file. In this survey about 59% of all voters were contacted on their cell phone, while 41% were contacted on a regular landline phone. After the completion of interviewing, the overall registered voter sample was weighted to demographic, geographic and party registration characteristics of the state's registered voter population. Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size as well as the percentage distribution being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the overall sample is +/- 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The maximum sampling error is based on results in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., percentages at or near 50%). Percentages at either end of the distribution (those closer to 10% or 90%) have a smaller margin of error. There are potential sources of error in surveys besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of the survey sought to minimize these possible errors. The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field, who is still an active advisor. The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The Poll receives annual funding from media subscribers of The Field Poll, from several California foundations, and the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes. Questions Asked In general would you rather pay higher taxes and have more government services or pay lower taxes and have fewer government services? Some people say we should cut government spending in California because government can spend less and still provide the same level of services. Others say government spending in California was cut too much during the recession and we need to increase funding for many important government services. Still s say we should keep government spending at about the same level until the state s financial condition is more secure. Which do you agree with the most the 1st statement, the 2nd statement or the 3rd statement? (IF CUT SPENDING:) Do you agree very strongly, strongly or not too strongly that we should cut government spending? I am going to read some of the areas of state and local government spending. As I read each, please tell me whether you think state and local government should be spending more, less or about the same than it s currently spending in this area. (READ ITEMS IN RANDOM ORDER, ASKING:) Should state and local government be spending more, less or about the same for: (a) building and repairing roads and highways; (b) the k-12 schools; (c) mental health; (d) law enforcement and police; (e) public assistance programs; (f) environmental protection? When people talk about taxes in California they often bring up the topic of Proposition 13, which voters approved back in 1978 that reduced property taxes across the state. To your knowledge, did the property tax changes brought about by Proposition 13 apply to homeowners, to businesses and commercial property owners, or to both?

4 The Field Poll #2469 Thursday, April 17, 2014 Page 4 To your knowledge, under Proposition 13 what percentage of the votes in an election are required to increase local taxes a 50% majority, 55%, 60% or two-thirds of the votes? Some people say that we should not change Proposition 13 because they feel it keeps property taxes and government spending under control. Others want to change parts of Proposition 13 because they feel it has loopholes, causes legislative gridlock and places an unfair tax burden on some taxpayers. Who do you agree with more those who do not want to change Prop. 13 or those who want to change parts of Prop. 13? Do you think most homeowners who live in similar homes in the same neighborhoods pay about the same amount of property taxes or do those who bought their homes more recently generally pay more? Because of complexities in the way businesses and commercial properties are sold, they, unlike residential properties, are not always reassessed when ownership is transferred. Do you favor or oppose changing Prop. 13 to insure that when business and commercial properties are sold or transferred, their property taxes are reset and based on their current assessed value? Under Proposition 13 it takes two-thirds of the voters in an election to raise local taxes? Do you favor or oppose reducing Prop. 13 s two-thirds vote requirement to 55%?

5 California Opinion Index A digest summarizing California voter opinions about Taxes, Government ing, and Proposition 13 April 2014 Findings in Brief By a 54% to 35% margin, most California voters say they prefer lower taxes and fewer government services to higher taxes and more government services. Opinions are highly partisan. prefer higher taxes with more government services, 51% to 36%, but overwhelmingly favor lower taxes with fewer government services, 81% to 13%. Voters are divided when asked about the overall level of government spending in California. About four in ten voters (39%) support holding overall government spending at about current levels. An one in three (34%) favor reducing overall spending, while 24% prefer increasing them. However, when voters are asked whether state and local government pending in each of six specific program areas should be increased, reduced or left the same, there is much less support for spending reductions. Only small proportions of voter (between 8% and 15%) support less state and local government spending on the k-12 schools, mental health, road and highway building and repair, and law enforcement and police. In the case of k-12 schools and mental health, majorities favor increased government spending. In the case of road and highway building and repair, and law enforcement and police, pluralities support keeping spending at current levels. Voters are divided when asked about government spending on environmental protection and public assistance programs. Varying proportions of voters can correctly answer three questions about the tax provisions contained in California s landmark Proposition 13 property tax reduction amendment. A 42% plurality of voters is aware that the Prop. 13 tax reductions apply to both residential and commercial property; 53% understand that Prop. 13 requires a two-thirds majority of the votes in an election to increase local taxes; and 68% know that more recent homeowners living in similar homes in the same neighborhood generally pay higher property taxes than homeowners who have lived in their homes for longer periods. In each case, between 15% and 24% of voters volunteer that they don t know the correct answer, while between 17% and 34% give an incorrect reply. About half of voters (49%) say they generally support the idea of changing parts of Prop. 13, while 34% are opposed and 17% are undecided. There is strong bipartisan support for changing one aspect of Prop. 13. This relates to the fact that, because of the complexities in the way businesses and commercial properties are sold, their properties are not always reassessed when ownership is transferred. By a 69% to 17% margin, voters endorse changing this so that the property taxes of businesses and commercial properties are always reset and based on their current assessed value whenever they are sold or transferred. Only a minority of voters (39%) supports the idea of reducing Prop. 13 s two-thirds majority vote requirement to increase local taxes to a 55% majority. A majority of California voters prefers lower taxes and fewer government services over higher taxes and more government services When California voters are asked whether they generally prefer lower taxes and fewer government services or higher taxes and more government services, more favor lower taxes and fewer government services. Statewide, 54% prefer this alternative, while 35% would support higher taxes with more government services. Opinions about this are highly partisan. California prefer higher taxes with more government services to lower taxes and fewer services 51% to 36%. However, overwhelmingly prefer lower taxes and fewer government services, 81% to 13%. Voters with no party preference or who are registered a minor party also prefer lower taxes and fewer government services, 56% to 34%. Voter preferences regarding lower taxes and fewer government services or higher taxes with more government services Neither/No opinion 11% 35% Higher taxes with more government services 54% Lower taxes with fewer government services Table 1 Note: In this and succeeding tables, differences between 100% and the sum of the proportion of, and no party preference voter categories equal proportions with no opinion. 13% 36% 34% 51% 56% 81% Copyright 2014, Volume 1 by Field Research Corporation. (ISSN )

6 No consensus among voters about whether state government spending should be more, less or the same Voters are divided when asked about the overall level of government spending in California. About four in ten voters (39%) support holding overall spending at about current levels. An one in three (34%) favor spending less, while 24% prefer increasing overall spending levels. Views about government spending levels divide sharply along partisan lines. Among, a plurality (47%) favors keeping overall spending at current levels, while an 32% support spending more. Just 17% favor reducing overall spending. By contrast, a majority of (56%) supports cutting back spending. An one in three (31%) favors keeping overall spending at about current levels, while just one in ten (10%) supports increasing government spending in this context. Non-partisans divide 37% in favor of spending less, 35% holding spending at about current levels, and 25% support increasing spending levels. Table 2 Voter views on what the overall levels of government spending in California should be police (15%). Most voters either favor spending more or keeping spending about the same in these two program areas. There is less agreement when voters are asked about government spending on environmental protection and public assistance programs. In each case a plurality supports holding spending to about current levels, but sizable proportions advocates either spending more or spending less. Table 3a Voter preferences regarding state and local government spending in specific areas State and local government spending in specific areas more about the same less No opinion K 12 schools 62% Mental health 55% Road and highway building and repair 44% Law enforcement and police 33% Environmental protection 30% Public assistance programs 28% % Increase spending No opinion 3% 39% Keep spending at about current levels 34% Cut back spending Little voter support for reducing government spending in specific areas Voters were asked their views about whether government spending in each of six areas should be increased, reduced or left the same. In this context relatively few voters advocate spending reductions. For example, a large majority of voters (62%) supports spending more for the k-12 schools, while just 10% favors spending less. An 27% prefer holding spending about the same. Mental health is an area where a majority supports spending more and there is little appetite for spending less. Statewide, 55% of voters favor greater spending in this area, while just 8% think spending for mental health should be reduced. One in three (33%) would keep spending at about current levels. Few voters also back reducing state and local spending on road and highway building and repair (10%) or law enforcement and 10% 17% 25% 32% 31% 37% 35% 47% 56% back spending more or the same across all 6 areas; less willing to spend more, but few support spending less in 4 of the 6 areas There are significant differences in the views that and have about state and local government spending in these six program areas. For example, large majorities of support spending more for the k-12 schools (75%) and mental health (68%), and just 4% favor spending less in each area. A 51% majority of also favors spending more for road and highway building and repair, while just 12% back spending reductions. An 40% would keep spending in this area at about current levels. Few also support spending less on environmental protection (11%) and public assistance programs (18%). In each case most of the favor spending more or keeping spending levels about the same. are generally less willing to favor increasing government spending than their Democratic counterparts. However, few favor spending cutbacks in four of the six program areas tested k-12 schools, mental health, road and highway building and repair, and law enforcement and police. In each of these areas pluralities of Republican favor keeping spending about the same, about one in three favor spending more and fewer than one in five favor spending less. More do favor spending less in the two areas. A 60% majority of favor reduced government spending on public assistance programs and a 47% plurality favors spend- 2

7 ing less on environmental protection. Most of the rest favor holding the line on spending in these areas, and relatively few favor spending increases. Table 4 Voter knowledge of Proposition 13 s tax provisions: (1) Did Prop. 13 reduce taxes on of both residential and commercial property or just one or the Voter preferences regarding state and local government spending in specific areas by party more Table 3b About the same less more About the same less K 12 schools 75% % Mental health 68% % Road and highway building and repair 51% % Law enforcement and police 37% % Environmental protection 42% % Public assistance programs 39% % % Don t know 29% Residential property only 42% Both residential and commercial property (CORRECT) 5% Commercial property only Table 5 % Correct Voter knowledge of Proposition 13 s tax provisions: (2) As a result of Prop. 13, do homeowners living in similar homes in the same neighborhood pay similar amounts of property taxes or do more recent buyers generally pay more 43% 41% 42% Voters knowledge of key tax provisions in California s landmark Proposition 13 property tax reduction amendment varies Voters in this survey were asked three questions to test their knowledge of the tax provisions contained in California s landmark Proposition 13 property tax reduction amendment approved by voters in June They included: (1) whether Prop. 13 s tax reductions applies to both residential and commercial property or only to one or the ; (2) whether homeowners living in similar homes in the same neighborhoods pay similar amounts of property taxes as a result of Prop. 13 ; and (3) what percentage of the votes cast in an election are required to increase local taxes under Prop. 13. The proportions of voters able to answer correctly varies somewhat across the three questions. The smallest proportion of voters (42%) knows the Prop. 13 tax reductions applies to both residential and commercial property. Slightly more than half (53%) understand that Prop. 13 requires a two-thirds majority of votes cast in an election to increase local taxes. And, greater than two in three (68%) know that more recent homeowners living in similar homes in the same neighborhood generally pay more than homeowners who have been living there for longer periods. In each case, between 15% and 24% of voters volunteer that they don t know the correct answer, while between 17% and 34% give an incorrect reply. There are relatively few differences in voter knowledge of Prop. 13 between and on these questions. 3 50% majority 15% Don t know 17% Pay similar amounts 68% Recent buyers pay more (CORRECT) % Correct Voter knowledge of Proposition 13 s tax provisions: (3) As a result of Prop. 13, what percentage of votes cast in an election are required to increase local taxes 55% majority 24% Don t know 9% 8% 6% 60% majority 53% Two thirds majority (CORRECT) Table 6 % Correct About half of voters generally support the idea of changing parts of Prop. 13 When California voters are asked in a general way whether or not they would favor changing parts of Prop. 13, about half (49%) say they would support the idea, 34% are opposed and an 17% are undecided. However, there are sizable differences in opinion about this by party registration, as well as between homeowners and renters. and non-partisans are much more open to changing parts of Prop. 13 than. Among a greater than two-to-one 48% 57% 69% 69% 65% 58%

8 majority (60% to 24%) supports making changes to the law. Among nonpartisans, a 47% to 31% plurality favors changing Prop. 13. By contrast, are opposed 52% to 33%. Renters back the idea of changing parts of Prop. 13 greater than two to one (55% to 23%). While homeowners are evenly divided on the matter, there are differences depending on when the homeowner bought their home. More recent homebuyers (i.e., those who purchased their home within the past 10 years) support the idea of changing Prop % to 39%. On the hand, homeowners who purchased their homes more than 10 years ago oppose changing Prop % to 41%. 17% No opinion 34% Don t change Prop. 13 Voter preferences as to whether or not parts of Proposition 13 should be changed 49% Parts of Prop. 13 should be changed Table 7 Tenure Renters Homeowners (total) Owned home 10 years or less Owned home more than 10 years One Prop. 13 change endorsed by 69% of voters 24% 33% 52% 47% 31% 23% 44% 44% 55% 48% 39% 41% 49% There is strong bipartisan support for changing one aspect of Prop. 13. This relates to the fact that, because of the complexities in the way businesses and commercial properties are sold, their properties are not always reassessed when ownership is transferred. By a four-to-one margin (69% to 17%), voters endorse changing this so that the property taxes of businesses and commercial properties are always reset at their current assessed value whenever they are sold or transferred. Greater than seven in ten (71%) and nearly two in three (64%) back making this change. Change Prop. 13 to ensure that when business and commercial properties are sold or transferred, their property taxes are reset and based on their current assessed value 17% Oppose 14% No opinion 69% Favor Table 8 Tenure Renters Homeowners 15% 14% 14% 25% 21% 60% 71% 64% 71% 71% 68% Just 39% support changing Prop. 13 s two-thirds majority vote requirement to increase local taxes Only a minority of voters supports the idea of reducing Prop. 13 s two-thirds majority vote requirement to increase local taxes. Less than four in ten voters (39%) favors reducing the vote needed to raise local taxes from two-thirds to a 55% majority. This compares to slightly more than half of voters (51%) who oppose making this change. There are big differences in views about this by party and by homeownership status. Narrow pluralities of and nonpartisans support this proposal. By contrast, are strongly opposed 67% to 27%. Similarly, while a narrow plurality of renters backs the idea, homeowners are opposed 59% to 33%. Reduce Prop. 13 s two thirds majority vote requirement to a 55% majority to increase local taxes No opinion 10% 51% Oppose 39% Favor Table 9 Tenure Renters Homeowners About the Survey 46% 42% 47% 40% 45% 41% The results contained in this report are based on a Field Poll survey completed among a representative sample of 1,000 registered voters in California. The survey was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish, March 18-April 5, The questions in this survey were developed in collaboration with Professor Carl Stempel, Department of Sociology and Social Sciences at California State University, East Bay, as part of the CSU-Field Faculty Fellowship Program. The statewide sample was developed from telephone listings of individual voters selected randomly from a listing of statewide voter registration rolls. Once a voter s name and telephone had been selected, interviews were attempted only with the specified voter. Interviews were completed on either the voter s landline or cell phone, depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file and the preference of the voter. After the completion of interviewing the overall registered voter sample was weighted to Field Poll estimates of the characteristics of all registered voters in California by region, age, gender and party registration. The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field, who is still an active advisor. The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The Poll receives annual funding from media subscribers of The Field Poll, from several California foundations, and the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes. 27% 33% 59% 67% 4