First findings from the ZALF-household survey in Tanzania

Transcription

1 Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) First from the ZALF-household survey in Tanzania Input for the Maputo meeting of IFPRI, PIK, ZALF & ILRI Till Below

2 Content 1. Products & processes of the ZALF component 2. Process of 3. Research of the household survey 4. Methods & 5. Preliminary 6. Data 2

3 Products & processes of ZALF Products Literature review (the whole team: 05/09) Policy analysis -> expert interviews in TZ (Artner: 06/09-09/09) Adoption & cost/benefit study > household survey in TZ (Below: 05/09-10/09) To come: IFPRI Discussion Paper 2nd period of in TZ (approx. 02/10-03/10) 3

4 Fieldwork: process Products June/July: Rapid Rural Appraisal: 5 days in one village of each system July-Sept: Household survey: 6 weeks, with 3 field assistants 5 Main sections of the questionnaire Basic information Household assets and wealth Livelihood strategies Perception of climate risks Strategies for adaptation to weather related shocks 18 pages, ~1300 variables Oct: Data entry: 2-3 weeks 4

5 Fieldwork 5

6 Products Till Below, Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Research : household survey Which factors influence adaptation to weather related shocks? How can the degree of adaptation to weather related shocks be measured? Are there any differences in yields and gross margins between welland poorly adapted households? What are the costs and the benefits for the adaptation of important cropping systems? 6

7 Methods & Products Rapid Rural Appraisal: 2 villages Household survey: 6 villages 50 households/village = 300 households 2 Sites: Mlali ward: high potential ~600masl ~800mm precip./year favorable soils bimodal Gairo ward: low potential ~1300masl ~3-600mm precip./ year less fertile soils unimodal 7

8 Local adaptation to drought High potential Low potential Products Clim. Stress Adaptation Challenge Crop- & plot specific agricultural droughts Decreasing level of water bodies Failing of short rains Off season tomato cultiv. Business & wage work Short maturing varieties Forest conservation Mal-adaptation Unproductive water flows Lack of capital, inputs, skills Crop- & plot specific agricultural droughts Often poor distribution of rains (~70% less harvest in 2009; food relief) Livestock Extend farmland Short maturing varieties Drought resistant crops RWH Unproductive water flows Lack of capital, inputs, skills Little other income System frontiers 8

9 High potential area 9

10 Low potential area 10

11 Adaptation 11

12 Perception Perception of changes in climate since 1999 in Mlali ward (N=37) Products Percent Average temperature Average rainfall Stayed the same Increased Decreased 12

13 Adoption HH-Characteristics and seed-choice, Mlali ward (N=37) Products 1=TMV1, 2=HYV, 3=LV 2,43 3 3,80 2,34 2 3,79 1 2,53 5,25 20,00 28,50 10,53 22,84 25,00 22,00 0,00 10,00 20,00 30,00 Membership in credit groups in % Size of private/custom. land (ar) Attended years in school Farming experience (years) Years or percentage or acre 13

14 Impact Yields for low-input rainfed maize in Mlali ward Products Kg/ha TMV1, 90 days (N=8) HYV, 120 days (N=19) LV (N=10)" Total (N=37) FGD: LV, 120 days = below average season, 2 = above average season 14

15 Data Products SPSS V12.0 Descriptive statistics Wealth index Adaptation index Regressions to explore relationship between HH-characteristics and adoption/non adoption Regressions/stochastic frontier analysis to measure farmer s performance Cost-benefit analysis using modelled crop responses to climate change Complementary data from PIK & IFPRI: Output of crop models and climate models for Gairo and Mlali wards 15

16 Asante sana 16

17 17

18 Some assumed correlations based on observations from the field Products Education Cause Agricultural workforce Use: irrigation, fertilizer, imp. seeds, mulching Short maturing varieties (TMV1) Decrease of precip. in last 10 yrs Perceived precip.- decrease in 10 yrs Wealth (index) Effect Manual irrigation, FYM Diversification Crop productivity Improved harvest in below average seasons Shift from crop to other income Adaptation (index) Adaptation (index) 18