Japan's Fiscal Condition

Transcription

1 Provisional translation Japan's Fiscal Condition January 213 Ministry of Finance

2 Table of Contents (1) Fiscal Condition 1 (2) Trends in General Account Tax Revenues, Total Expenditures and Government Bond Issues 2 (3) Government Bond Issues and Bond Dependency Ratio 3 (4) Accumulated Government Bonds Outstanding 4 (5) Long-Term Debt Outstanding of Central and Local Governments 5 (6) Trends in Interest Payments and Interest Rate 6 (7) Ratio of Major Expenditure Items in the General Account 7 (8) Trends of Major Expenditures in the General Account 8 (9) General Account Revenues 9 (1) General Account Expenditure 1 (Reference 1) General Government Financial Balances (International Comparison) 11 (Reference 2) General Government Gross Debt (International Comparison) 12 (Reference 3) General Government Net Debt (International Comparison) 13

3 (1)Fiscal Condition General Account Budget (Revenues and Expenditures) (Unit: billion yen) FY211 FY212 FY213 Initial budget Initial budget Draft budget Revenues Tax and Stamp Revenues Other Revenues Government Bond Issues Pension-related Special Deficit-financing Bond Issues Total Expenditures National Debt Service Primary Balance Expenses Social Security Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc. Total Bond Dependency Ratio 47.9% 47.6% 46.3% General Account Primary Balance (Note1)In calculating Bond Dependency Ratio and Primary balance, the amounts required to achieve one-half National contribution to basic pension is considered. (Note2)For convenience, General Account Primary Balance is calculated by subtracting Primary Balance Expenditures from the sum of Tax Revenues and Other Revenues. ; it is different from the Central Government Primary Balance on SNA basis. Debt Situation (Unit:trillion yen) As of end-fy211(actual) As of end-fy212(estimated) As of end-fy213(draft budget) Government Bonds Outstanding (General Bonds Outstanding) Percentage of GDP 142% 15% 154% Long-term Debt Outstanding of Central and Local Governments Percentage of GDP 189% 198% 2% (Note3) GDP for FY211: Actual; FY212: Estimates; FY213: Forecast. 1

4 (2) Trends in General Account Tax Revenues, Total Expenditures and Government Bond Issues (trillion yen) Flow (Unit: billion yen) FY213 Bond Dependency Ratio 46.3% General Account Primary Balance -23,22.6 Stock (Unit: trillion yen) Government Bonds Outstanding (General Bonds Outstanding) Long-Term Debt Outstanding of Central and Local Governments As of end-fy213 (Percentage of GDP) 75(154%) 977(2%) Construction Bond Issues 9.4 Tax Revenues Special Deficit- Financing Bond Issues Total Expenditures (FY) (Note1)FY : Settlement, FY212: Supplementary budget, FY213: Draft budget (Note2)Following various bonds are excluded: Ad-hoc Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY199 as a source of funds to support peace and reconstruction activities in the Persian Gulf Region, Tax reduction-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY to make up for decline in tax revenues due to a sereis of income tax cuts preceding consumption tax hike from 3% to 5%, Reconstruction bonds issued in FY211 as a source of funds to implement measures for the Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake, Pension-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY212,213 as a source of funds to achieve the targeted one-half National contribution to basic pension. (Note3)For convenience, General Account Primary Balance is calculated by subtracting Primary Balance Expenditures from the sum of Tax Revenues and Other Revenues; it is different from the Central Government Primary Balance on SNA basis

5 (3) Government Bond Issues and Bond Dependency Ratio (trillion yen) Government Bond Issues (left axis) Bond Dependency Ratio (right axis) Construction Bond Special Deficitfinancing Bond (FY) (Note1)FY : Settlement, FY212: Supplementary budget, FY213: Draft budget (Note2)Following various bonds are excluded: Ad-hoc Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY199 as a source of funds to support peace and reconstruction activities in the Persian Gulf Region, Tax reduction-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY to make up for decline in tax revenues due to a sereis of income tax cuts preceding consumption tax hike from 3% to 5%, Reconstruction bonds issued in FY211 as a source of funds to implement measures for the Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake, Pension-related Special Deficit-Financing bonds issued in FY212,213 as a source of funds to achieve the targeted one-half National contribution to basic pension. (Note3)In calculating Bond Dependency Ratio, "Temporary Bond", issued while securing future financial resources by the establishment of the Special tax, etc are excluded. (Note4)In calculating Bond Dependency Ratio in FY211, reconstruction-related expenditures, which are managed in Special Account for Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake after FY212 and are not included in the total amount of General Account Expenditure, are included. If all reconstruction-related expenditures are excluded from total amount of General Account Expenditure, Bond Dependency Ratio in FY211 is 46.7%

6 (4) Accumulated Government Bonds Outstanding (trillion yen) Equivalent to approx. 17 years of General Account Tax Revenues Tax Revenues in FY213 General Account Budget: Approx. 43 trillion FY213 Government Bonds Outstanding Approx. 75 trillion (projection) Approx million per person Approx million per family of 4 Reconstruction Bonds Average disposable income of a working family 222 Construction Bonds Approx. 5.5 million (Average family size: 3.42) (Note) Disposable income and family size are based on the "FY Survey of Household Economy" by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Special Deficit-financing Bonds (Note1)FY : Actual, FY212: Estimates, FY213: Draft budget (FY) (Note2)Special Deficit-financing bonds outstanding include refunding bonds for long-term debts transferred from JNR Settlement Corporation, the National Forest Service, etc, Ad-hoc Special Deficit-financing bonds, Tax reduciton-related Special Deficit-financing bonds and Pension-related Special Deficit-financing bonds. (Note3)Government Bonds Outstanding includes reconstruction bonds issued(fy211: in General Account, after FY212: in Special Account for Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake) as a source of funds to implement the measures for the reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake in FY211, FY212 and FY213 (FY211: 1.7 trillion yen, FY212: 11.2 trillion yen, FY213: 12.2 trillion yen) (Note4)The estimate of FY212 excluding front-loading issuance of refunding bonds is approximately 73 trillion yen. 4

7 As a percentage of GDP (trillion yen) As of end - As of end - As of end - As of end - As of end - As of end - As of end - As of end - As of end - FY1993 FY1998 FY23 FY28 FY29 FY21 FY211 FY212 FY213 <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Actual> <Estimated> <Draft Budget> Approx.573 Approx.621 Approx.662 Approx.694 Approx.741 Approx.777 (Approx.568 ) (Approx.613 ) (Approx.645 ) (Approx.685 ) (Approx.729 ) (Approx.757 ) Approx.546 Approx.594 Approx.636 Approx.67 Approx.713 Approx.75 (Approx.541 ) (Approx.586 ) (Approx.619 ) (Approx.66 ) (Approx.71 ) (Approx.73 ) 39.9% 57.8% 91.1% 112% 125% 133% 142% 15% 154% ( 11% ) ( 124% ) ( 129% ) ( 14% ) ( 148% ) ( 15% ) Approx.91 Approx.163 Approx.198 Approx.197 Approx.199 Approx.2 Approx.2 Approx.21 Approx.21 Central Government Approx.242 Approx.39 Approx.493 General Bonds Approx.193 Approx.295 Approx.457 As a percentage of GDP Local Governments As a percentage of GDP 19% 32% 4% 4% 42% 42% 42% 42% 41% Total Approx.333 Approx.553 Approx % 18% 138% Approx.77 Approx.82 Approx.862 Approx.895 Approx.942 Approx.977 (Approx.765 ) (Approx.812 ) (Approx.845 ) (Approx.885 ) (Approx.93 ) (Approx.957 ) 157% 173% 179% 189% 198% 2% ( 156% ) ( 171% ) ( 176% ) ( 187% ) ( 196% ) ( 196% ) (Note1)GDP for FY : Actual; FY212: Estimates; FY213: Forecast (Note2)Government Bonds Outstanding includes reconstruction bonds issued(fy211: in General Account, after FY212: in Special Account for Reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake) as a source of funds to implement the measures for the reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake in FY211, FY212 and FY213 (FY211: 1.7 trillion yen, FY212: 11.2 trillion yen, FY213: 12.2 trillion yen) (Note3)Figures in parentheses in FY do not include front-loading issuance of refunding. (Note4)The borrowings in the Special Account for Local Allocation and Local Transfer Tax are shared by the central government and local governments in accordance with their shares of redemption. The amount of the borrowings outstanding incurred by the central government was transferred to the General Account at the beginning of FY27, so that the borrowings outstanding in the Special Account since the end of FY27 are the debt of the local governments (approx. 33 trillion in FY213). (Note5)FY212: Local Government-Estimates on Local Government Debt Plan, etc. (Note6)Government bonds outstanding in the Special Account for Fiscal Investment and Loan Program are at approximately 15 trillion yen as of end-fy213. 5

8 (6) Trends in Interest Payments and Interest Rate (trillion yen) 1% 25 Interest rate (left scale) (trillion yen) % 2 6% 15 4% 1 2% 5 % Interest payments (left scale) Government bonds outstanding (right scale) (FY) (Note1)Interest Payments for FY : Settlemnt; FY212: Supplementary budget; FY213: Draft budget (Note2)Government bonds outstanding for FY : Actual; FY212: Estimates; FY213: Draft budget (Note3)Government Bonds Outstanding includes reconstruction bonds issued in FY211, FY212 and FY213(FY211: 1.7 trillion yen, FY212: 11.2 trillion yen, FY213: 12.2 trillion yen). Measures and projects for reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake would be financed by reconstruction bonds, which are used as a temporary means until when the financial resources are secured by the revenues including the special tax for reconstruction

9 (7) Ratio of Major Expenditure Items in the General Account 1% % National Debt Service 8% 16. 7% 6% Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc. 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % FY196 FY197 FY198 FY199 FY2 FY213 Social Security related Expenditure Others Education & Science National Defense, etc Public Works related Expenditures (Note)FY196-2: Settlement, FY213: Draft budget 7

10 (8) Trends of Major Expenditures in the General Account (trillion yen) 3 Social Security 25 National Debt Services 2 15 Local Allocation Tax Grands, etc. Public Works 1 5 Other Expenditures Education & Science National Defense FY196 FY197 FY198 FY199 FY2 FY213 (Note)FY196-2: Settlement, FY213: Draft budget 8

11 (9) General Account Revenues FY General Account Revenues Tax Revenues Other Revenues Government Bond Issues Construction Bonds Special Deficit-Financing Bonds , , , , ,95.9 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,95. 1, , , , ,34. 2, , , ,762. 1, ,16. 2, , , ,34. 1, ,. 2, , , ,519. 1,52. 7,275. 3,525. 3, , , ,24. 1, ,48. 4,43. 4, , , ,45. 1,86. 1,985. 6,5. 4, , ,6.1 21,487. 1, ,27. 7,215. 8, , , ,411. 1, ,27. 6,785. 7, , , ,284. 2, ,27. 6,785. 5, , , ,624. 2, ,44. 6,516. 3, , , ,315. 4, ,345. 6,365. 6, , , ,596. 3, ,68. 6,225. 6, , , ,55. 2, ,68. 5,95. 5, , ,88.6 4,56. 2, ,946. 5,7. 5, , ,11. 41,194. 2,46. 1,51. 5,52. 4, , , ,9. 2, ,841. 5,69. 3, , , ,1. 2, ,111. 5,78. 1, , , ,4. 2, , , , , ,772. 3, ,343. 5, , , ,54. 2,434. 7,28. 7, , , ,33. 2, ,13. 8, , , ,665. 5, ,59.2 1, , , ,731. 4, , , , , ,345. 2, , ,31. 1, , ,39. 57,82. 2, ,77. 9,237. 7, , , ,522. 3, ,557. 8,427. 7, , , ,119. 3, ,5. 9,34. 21, , , ,659. 3, ,61. 9,15. 23, , , ,727. 3, ,318. 8,76. 19, , ,23. 46,816. 4,414. 3,. 6,79. 23, , , ,786. 3, ,445. 6,42. 3, , , ,747. 3, ,59. 6,5. 3, , , ,7. 3, ,39. 6,18. 28, , , ,878. 3, ,973. 5, , , , ,467. 4,9.8 25,432. 5,231. 2, , , ,554. 4, ,348. 5,212. 2, , , ,13. 9, ,294. 7, , , , ,396. 1,6.2 44,33. 6, , , , ,927. 7, ,298. 6,9. 38, , , ,346. 3, ,244. 5,99. 38, , , ,96. 4, ,851. 5, , , (Note1) The figures are based on each initial budget. Other revenues include surplus carried over from the previous fiscal year. (Note2) GDP for FY : Actual; FY212: Estimates; FY213: Draft budget (Note3) More of revenues above mentioned, General Account Revenues include the "Temporary Bond" issued while securing future financial resources by the establishment of the Special tax, etc. Specifically, Tax reduction-related Special Deficit-financing bonds(fy1994: 3.1trillion yen, FY1995: 2.9 trillion yen, FY1996: 1.9 trillion yen) and Pension-related Special Deficit-financing bonds(fy213: 2.6 trillion yen). (Note4) In calculating the Bond Dependency Ratio in FY212, the amounts required to achieve one-half National contribution to basic pension are considered. (Note5) In calculating Bond Dependency Ratio, "Temporary Bond", issued while securing future financial resources by the establishment of the Special tax, etc are excluded. (Note6) Government Bonds Outstanding for FY : Actual; FY212: Estimates; FY213: Draft budget (Note7) Government Bonds Outstanding includes reconstruction bonds issued in FY211, FY212 and FY213(FY211: 1.7 trillion yen, FY212: 11.2 trillion yen, FY213: 12.2 trillion yen).measures and projects for reconstruction from the Great East Japan Earthquake would be financed by reconstruction bonds, which are used as a temporary means until when the financial resources are secured by the revenues including the special tax for reconstruction. Bond Dependency Ratio Government Bonds Outstanding (Unit: billion yen, %) Government Bonds Outstanding / GDP 9

12 (1) General Account Expenditure (Unit: billion yen, %) FY General Account Expenditure National Debt Service Primary Balance Expenses Social Security Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc. (A) / (B) / (A) (A) change % change (B) change % change change % change change % change change % change GDP (Note1) The figures are based on each initial budget. (Note2) GDP for FY : Actual; FY212: Estimates; FY213: Forecast (Note3) General Account Expenditures to GDP for FY : Settlement; FY212: Supplementary budget; FY213: Draft budget (Note4) Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc. since FY1999 include Special Local Grants. 1

13 (Reference 1) General Government Financial Balances (International Comparison) CY Japan U.S U.K Germany France Italy Canada Germany CY Japan U.S U.K Germany France Italy Canada (Source) OECD "Economic Outlook 92" (December, 212) (Note) Figures represent the general government-based data (including the central/local governments and the social security funds), except for Japan and the U.S where the figures of the social security funds are excluded. The following figures include social security. CY Japan U.S Italy Canada France UK US Japan CY Japan U.S (Source) OECD "Economic Outlook 92" (December, 212) (Note 1) FY213 draft budget is not reflected in the above data. (Note 2) Figures for Japan exclude one-off factors (CY) 11

14 (Reference 2) General Government Gross Debt (International Comparison) CY Japan U.S U.K Germany France Italy Canada CY Japan U.S U.K Germany France Italy Canada (Source) OECD "Economic Outlook 92" (December, 212) (Note1) Figures represent the general government-based data (including the central/local governments and the social security funds). (Note 2) FY213 draft budget is not reflected in the above data Japan Italy US UK France Germany Canada (CY) 12

15 (Reference 3) General Government Net Debt (International Comparison) CY Japan U.S U.K Germany France Italy Canada Japan CY Japan U.S U.K Germany France Italy Canada France Italy US UK (Source) OECD "Economic Outlook 92" (December, 212) (Note1) Figures represent the general government-based data (including the central/local governments and the social security funds). 5 Germany (Note 2) FY213 draft budget is not reflected in the above data. Canada (CY) 13