Accommodation Survey: December 2011

Transcription

1 Accommodation Survey: December 2011 Embargoed until 10:45am 10 February 2012 Key facts In December 2011 compared with December 2010: Total guest nights rose 1.4 percent. North Island guest nights rose 3.9 percent, while South Island guest nights fell 2.0 percent. The Canterbury and Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman regions showed the largest falls in guest nights, while Auckland and Otago showed the largest rises. Guest nights rose for motels and holiday parks, but fell for backpacker accommodation and hotels. For the year ended December 2011 compared with the year ended December 2010: Total guest nights fell 0.7 percent. The Canterbury region had by far the largest decrease in guest nights, and the combined yearly increases for Auckland, Wellington, and Waikato (which had the largest yearly increases of all regions) were more than offset by Canterbury's fall. Guest nights fell for hotels and backpacker accommodation, but rose for motels and holiday parks. Geoff Bascand 10 February 2012 Government Statistician ISSN You can also view our releases on your smartphone.

2 Commentary Guest nights rise in December month but fall for December year North Island guest nights continue to rise South Island guest nights still down after Canterbury earthquakes Annual guest nights rise in the North Island but fall in the South International guest nights fall, led by Canterbury Monthly visitor arrivals reach all-time high Domestic guest nights rise, led by Otago Guest nights in motels and holiday parks increase Accommodation capacity reduced by Canterbury earthquakes Occupancy rate increases Guest nights rise in December month but fall for December year Total guest nights in short-term commercial accommodation numbered 3.2 million in December 2011, up 1.4 percent from December In contrast, annual guest nights for the December 2011 year numbered 32 million, which was a fall of 0.7 percent compared with the December 2010 year. North Island guest nights rose 3.9 percent in December 2011 compared with December 2010, while South Island guest nights fell 2.0 percent. The Canterbury region continued to show the largest fall, followed by Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman, parts of which were affected by flooding in December Canterbury also had the largest fall in annual guest nights for the December 2011 year. To put the size of this decrease into context, the combined yearly increases for Auckland, Wellington, and Waikato (which had the largest yearly increases for all regions) were more than offset by Canterbury's fall. In the December 2011 year, guest nights fell in backpacker accommodation and hotels, but rose in motels and holiday parks, compared with the December 2010 year. The trend for total guest nights shows small increases from the February 2011 low point, provisionally increasing 1.4 percent over this time. 2

3 North Island guest nights continue to rise North Island guest nights numbered 1.9 million in December 2011, up 3.9 percent from December 2010, and up 2.8 percent from December More guest nights were recorded in all North Island regions than in the previous December month, except Northland and Wellington. The Auckland region had the largest increase (up 12 percent), followed by Waikato (up 4.5 percent), and Taranaki/Manawatu-Wanganui (up 4.6 percent). The trend for North Island guest nights has been rising since June 2010, up 7.2 percent over this time. The trend is now at its highest level in its 15-year history. South Island guest nights still down after Canterbury earthquakes South Island guest nights numbered 1.3 million in December 2011, down 2.0 percent from December 2010, and down 6.0 percent from December The effects of the Canterbury earthquakes continue, with the region's guest nights down 14 percent (70,000) compared with the same month last year. The main driver continues to be a drop in hotel guest nights, particularly by international visitors. Accommodation capacity is down in Canterbury,especially for hotels and backpacker accommodation. The Canterbury earthquakes began on 4 September 2010, but the main drop in accommodation capacity was caused by the 22 February 2011 earthquake in Christchurch. Other regions to record decreases were Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman (down 3.3 percent) and Southland (down 2.0 percent). Otago (up 12 percent) recorded the largest South Island increase, partly offsetting the Canterbury fall. The West Coast also recorded an increase in guest nights (up 1.8 percent). The trend for South Island guest nights has been declining since the high point of the series in January 2010, down 9.5 percent over this time. 3

4 Annual guest nights rise in the North Island but fall in the South North Island guest nights numbered 19 million in the December 2011 year, up 4.1 percent from the December 2010 year. Annual South Island guest nights numbered 13 million, down 7.4 percent from the previous December year. Six of the 12 regions recorded decreases in guest nights compared with the December 2010 year. Regions with the largest annual decreases in guest nights were: Canterbury, down almost 1.0 million (19 percent) West Coast, down 53,000 (4.5 percent) Southland, down 51,000 (6.1 percent). Regions with the largest increases in annual guest nights were: Auckland, up 562,000 (9.9 percent) Wellington, up 164,000 (6.3 percent) Waikato, up 78,000 (2.9 percent). 4

5 International guest nights fall, led by Canterbury International visitors spent 1.3 million guest nights in New Zealand in December This number is down 2.3 percent from December 2010, and down 7.8 percent from December International guest nights rose 6.2 percent in the North Island, but decreased 10 percent in the South Island, compared with December Five of the country's 12 regions had falls in international guest nights for the December 2011 month. The three regions showing the largest decreases, as in the graph below, were: Canterbury, down 70,000 (29 percent) Northland, down 11,000 (15 percent) Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman, down 9,000 (9.3 percent). The three regions showing the largest increases were: Auckland, up 30,000 (13 percent) Waikato, up 16,000 (18 percent) Otago, up 6,000 (2.4 percent). 5

6 International visitors in December 2011 contributed 42 percent of total guest nights, down from 43 percent in December There were almost 13 million international guest nights for the year ended December 2011, down 3.2 percent from the year ended December September and October 2011 were the only months in which international guest nights increased (compared with the same month a year earlier) in the December 2011 year. The Rugby World Cup contributed to these increases. Monthly visitor arrivals reach an all-time high Short-term overseas visitor arrivals to New Zealand numbered 364,200 in December 2011, the highest recorded for any month, according to International Travel and Migration statistics. This was 5 percent more than the previous high of 345,700 in December December is normally the highest month each year for visitor arrivals, while the winter months of May and June are the lowest. There were million visitor arrivals to New Zealand in the December 2011 year. This was up 3 percent from the December 2010 year, and is the first time that annual visitor numbers have passed 2.6 million. A number of major events affected visitor arrivals in 2011, including the Canterbury earthquakes, flight disruptions due to volcanic ash, and the Rugby World Cup, which attracted 133,200 overseas visitors between July and October

7 Domestic guest nights rise, led by Otago Domestic visitors accounted for 1.9 million guest nights in December 2011, up 4.1 percent from December 2010, and up 4.4 percent from December Domestic guest nights rose 6.9 percent in the South Island and 2.6 percent in the North Island. The regions with the largest increases in domestic guest nights, as in the graph below, were: Otago, up 44,000 (26 percent) Auckland, up 33,000 (12 percent) Taranaki/Manawatu-Wanganui, up 9,000 (9.0 percent). The regions with the largest decreases in domestic guest nights, which were small in comparison to the increases, were: Wellington, down 6,000 (4.1 percent) Hawke's Bay/Gisborne, down 5,000 (4.6 percent) Bay of Plenty, down 3,000 (1.6 percent). There were over 19 million domestic guest nights for the year ended December 2011, up 1.1 percent from the previous December year. 7

8 Guest nights in motels and holiday parks increase Motels and holiday parks recorded increases in guest nights in December 2011, compared with December 2010, while backpacker accommodation and hotels recorded decreases. Guest nights in: motels rose 42,000 (4.7 percent) holiday parks rose 41,000 (4.7 percent) backpacker accommodation fell 24,000 (5.3 percent) hotels fell 16,000 (1.6 percent). Canterbury was a significant driver in all of these movements. The trend for holiday park guest nights has risen since the most recent low point in September 2010, reaching its highest level since the series began in Nationally, hotels accounted for 30 percent of overall guest nights in December 2011, followed by motels (29 percent), holiday parks (28 percent), and backpacker accommodation (13 percent). For the December 2011 year, hotels (down 5.0 percent) and backpacker accommodation (down 2.2 percent) recorded decreases when compared with the December 2010 year. Motels (up 2.5 percent) and holiday parks (up 2.7 percent), both recorded year ended increases. Nationally, hotels accounted for 33 percent of overall guest nights for the December 2011 year, followed by motels (33 percent), holiday parks (20 percent), and backpacker accommodation (14 percent). 8

9 Accommodation capacity reduced by Canterbury earthquakes Total available capacity in short-term accommodation was 4.4 million stay unit nights in December This number is down 2.6 percent from both December 2010 and down 2.5 percent from December For the year ended December 2011, total available capacity was 50.7 million stay unit nights. This number is down 2.3 percent from the year ended December 2010, and down 1.2 percent from the year ended December The decrease in capacity was primarily due to the Canterbury earthquakes, particularly the 22 February 2011 quake, which put numerous hotel and backpacker establishments out of operation. In December 2011 compared with December 2010, three of the four accommodation types had fewer stay unit nights available: hotels, down 61,000 (5.9 percent) backpackers, down 42,000 (4.9 percent) motels, down 23,000 (2.5 percent). Holiday parks were the only accommodation type to record an increase, up 8,000 (0.5 percent). 9

10 Occupancy rate increases Excluding holiday parks, the occupancy rate in December 2011 compared with December 2010 was 50 percent, up 1.1 percentage points. In December 2011, excluding holiday parks, the Auckland region had the highest occupancy rate (60 percent), followed by Otago (54 percent), and Canterbury (53 percent). In December 2011 compared with December 2010, the largest changes in occupancy rate were in: Canterbury, up 3.1 percentage points Bay of Plenty, up 2.4 percentage points West Coast, down 1.6 percentage points Otago, up 1.4 percentage points. Hotels had the highest occupancy rate (55 percent) in December 2011, followed by motels (50 percent), and backpacker accommodation (46 percent). Excluding holiday parks, the occupancy rate for the year ended December 2011 was 50 percent, up 1.6 percentage points from the December 2010 year and up 2.0 percent from the December 2009 year. For more detailed data from the Accommodation Survey, see the Excel tables in the 'Downloads' box. 10

11 Definitions About the Accommodation Survey The Accommodation Survey is a monthly survey that provides information about short-term commercial accommodation activity at national, regional, and lower levels. The survey is undertaken by Statistics NZ and sponsored by the Ministry of Economic Development. Information from the survey is used by regional tourism organisations, local and national government, and the accommodation industry for monitoring and planning purposes. Output variables include guest night numbers, capacity, and occupancy rates. More definitions Average length of stay: derived variable calculated by dividing total guest nights by total guest first nights. Business Frame: register (maintained by Statistics NZ) of all economically significant businesses operating in New Zealand from which the Accommodation Survey population is drawn. Capacity (stay unit nights available): basic measure of an establishment's accommodation capacity. It is defined as one stay unit multiplied by one night. For example, 10 units in a motel available for guest use (whether occupied or not) for the full 31 days in July would have an accommodation capacity of 310 stay unit nights. Establishment: smallest statistical unit operating within a single physical location and owned by a single enterprise. The term is used to represent what is usually called the 'geographic unit' in other Statistics NZ publications. Guest night: equivalent to one guest spending one night at an establishment. For example, a motel with 15 guests spending two nights would report provision of 30 guest nights of accommodation. Occupancy rate: derived variable calculated by dividing stay unit nights occupied by stay unit nights available. For example, if a hotel had 60 of its 100 rooms occupied every night in June, it would have 60 x 31 = 1,860 stay unit nights occupied, and its occupancy rate would be 60 percent. Stay unit: unit of accommodation that is available to be charged out to guests (such as a room in a hotel or motel, a bed in a backpacker establishment, or a site in a caravan park). 11

12 Related links Upcoming releases Accommodation Survey: January 2012 will be released on 12 March See our online release calendar for details of upcoming releases. Past releases See Accommodation Survey information releases for links to past releases. Related information See media releases for current and past media releases for the Accommodation Survey. Accommodation Survey pivot tables The Accommodation Survey pivot tables provide information below the regional level, by regional tourism organisation area and by territorial authority area. These Excel pivot tables can be downloaded free from the Statistics NZ website ( 12

13 Data quality Period-specific information This section contains information about data that has changed since the last release. Response rates General information This section contains information about data that does not change between releases. Data source Coverage Accuracy of the data Consistency with other periods Interpreting the data Confidentiality More information Period-specific information Response rates Response rates by accommodation type for December 2011 Establishments responding to questions on guest nights, Accommodation guest arrivals, and stay unit type nights Proportion of guest-night estimate from actual data Proportion of origin-of-guest estimate from actual data Percentage Hotels Motels Backpackers Holiday parks Total Response rates for Canterbury for December 2011 Total Source: Statistics New Zealand When respondents do not answer questions in the Accommodation Survey, Statistics NZ estimates the missing information based on data from similar establishments in the same or similar regions. For more information, please see the 'Accuracy of the data' section below or contact Statistics NZ. General information Data source Data is obtained from accommodation providers or their representatives each month, mostly via a postal survey. 13

14 Coverage The Accommodation Survey covers most short-term commercial accommodation in New Zealand. The accommodation types included are: hotels motels backpacker accommodation holiday parks. The following are excluded: hosted accommodation (such as 'bed & breakfast' establishments) marine vessels (such as cruise ships) private dwellings tramping huts event-specific accommodation (such as temporary campervan parks). The target population for this survey is all 'geographic units' (called 'establishments' in this publication) that are classified as short-term (less than one month) commercial accommodation providers operating in New Zealand. In terms of the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification 2006 (ANZSIC06), the target population is taken from class 4400 (accommodation), and the part of class 4520 (pubs, taverns, and bars) that also provides accommodation. The survey frame is all short-term commercial accommodation-providing geographic units belonging to an economically significant 'enterprise'. Economic significance is generally determined by the enterprise being GST-registered and having a turnover of at least $30,000 per year. Accuracy of the data Survey errors This survey aims for 100 percent coverage of the population (a full census). In practice, however, an overall response rate of between 76 and 80 percent is usually achieved. The remaining units are given imputed values based upon the characteristics of similar establishments in the same or similar regions. Imputation introduces unknown errors into the estimates, and users of the data should bear this in mind. The size of these unknown errors is difficult to quantify. Other errors include respondent error, and errors in coverage, classification, and processing. While every effort is made to minimise these errors, they will still occur. It is not possible to quantify their effect. 14

15 Consistency with other periods Survey changes From the October 2007 survey month, information about the number of domestic and international guest nights became available on a monthly basis. Previously, this information was available every third month. From the September 2009 survey month: the 'hosted' accommodation group was removed from the survey regional boundaries were updated. Results for earlier months were reworked to incorporate these changes, thereby enabling continued comparison across all survey months. Two accommodation types were renamed: 'backpackers/hostels' was renamed 'backpackers' 'caravan parks/camping grounds' was renamed 'holiday parks'. These changes are the result of a joint review conducted by Statistics NZ and the Ministry of Tourism, which aimed to balance the need for high quality information against the need to reduce respondent load. Interpreting the data Classification of accommodation type The predominant capacity provided determines the accommodation type. For instance, if a business provides both motel and camping ground accommodation, but the majority of its stay units are motel rooms, then it would be classified as a motel. The classification system used is the New Zealand Accommodation Classification, broadly defined below: hotels: includes both hotels and resorts motels: includes motor inns, apartments, and motels backpackers: includes hostels holiday parks: includes caravan parks and camping grounds. Further information on the classification system is available on request from info@stats.govt.nz Trend estimates For any series, the survey estimates can be broken down into three components: trend, seasonal, and irregular. While seasonally adjusted series have had the seasonal component removed, the trend series have had both the seasonal and the irregular components removed. Trend estimates reveal the underlying direction of movement in a series, and are likely to indicate turning points more accurately than seasonally adjusted estimates. The accommodation trend series are calculated using the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment package. They are based on optimal moving averages of the seasonally adjusted series, with an 15

16 adjustment for outlying values. The X-12-ARIMA package is an updated version of X-11-ARIMA, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. The trend estimates towards the end of the series incorporate new data as it becomes available, and can therefore change as more observations are added to the series. Revisions can be particularly large if an observation is treated as an outlier in one month, but is found to be part of the underlying trend as further observations are added to the series. All trend estimates are subject to revisions each month, but normally only the last two or three estimates are likely to be substantially altered. Trend estimates versus month-on-month comparisons Trend estimates reveal the underlying direction of the movement in a series. In contrast, comparisons between one month and the same month in the previous year(s) do not take account of data recorded in between these periods, and are subject to one-off fluctuations. Reasons for fluctuations include changes in the timing of holidays, international crises, and large sporting and cultural events. Seasonally adjusted estimates The X-12-ARIMA package has been used to produce the seasonally adjusted estimates referred to in the 'Commentary' text. Seasonal adjustment aims to eliminate the impact of regular seasonal events. These may be due to climatic effects (such as more guests staying in camping grounds during the summer) or calendar effects (such as holidays). This makes the data for adjacent months more comparable. All seasonally adjusted figures are subject to revision each month. For more information, see Seasonal adjustment in Statistics New Zealand. Confidentiality Statistics NZ produces national and regional statistics from a monthly survey of accommodation businesses. We do not release information about individuals or businesses. More information More information about the Accommodation Survey is available on our website. Liability While care has been used in processing, analysing and extracting information, Statistics NZ gives no warranty that the information supplied is free from error. Statistics NZ shall not be liable for any loss suffered through the use, directly or indirectly, of any information, product or service. Timing Timed statistical releases are delivered using postal and electronic services provided by third parties. Delivery of these releases may be delayed by circumstances outside the control of Statistics NZ. Statistics NZ accepts no responsibility for any such delays. 16

17 Crown copyright This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 New Zealand licence. You are free to copy, distribute, and adapt the work, as long as you attribute the work to Statistics NZ and abide by the other licence terms. Please note you may not use any departmental or governmental emblem, logo, or coat of arms in any way that infringes any provision of the Flags, Emblems, and Names Protection Act Use the wording 'Statistics New Zealand' in your attribution, not the Statistics NZ logo. 17

18 Contacts For media enquiries contact: Louise Holmes-Oliver Christchurch For technical information contact: Karen MacKenzie or Tina Waterhouse Christchurch For general enquiries contact our Information Centre: Phone: (toll free in New Zealand) (from outside New Zealand) info@stats.govt.nz 18

19 Tables The following tables are included with this release. They are available in Excel format from the 'Downloads' box of the Accommodation Survey: December 2011 on the Statistics NZ website. If you do not have access to Excel, you may use the Excel file viewer to view, print, and export the contents of the file. 1. Establishments, capacity, guest nights, occupancy rate, and average stay, by accommodation type 2. Occupancy rate excluding holiday parks, by region 3. Total guest nights 4. Seasonally adjusted and trend guest nights, by accommodation type 5. North Island guest nights 6. South Island guest nights 7. Regional guest nights 8. Domestic and international guest nights Accommodation pivot tables The Accommodation pivot tables provide more detailed information, breaking the survey variables down by regional tourism organisation areas and territorial authority areas. These tables can be downloaded from the Statistics NZ website. Access more time periods on Infoshare Use Infoshare, a free, online database to access a range of time-series data specific to your needs. Subject category: Tourism Group: Accommodation Survey - ACS 19