What Could New Ozone Regulations Cost Texas?

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1 $ What Could New Ozone Regulations Cost Texas? $350 Billion Gross State Product Loss from 2017 to ,417 Lost Jobs or Job Equivalents 1 per Year $426 Billion in Total Compliance Costs $1,690 Drop in Average Household Consumption per Year $45 Billion More for Residents to Own/Operate Their Vehicles Statewide (2017 to 2040) 1 Total job equivalents equal total labor income change divided by the average annual income per job. Updated 8/15. Expensive New Ozone Regulation Will Put the Squeeze on Texas The Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA) new ozone regulation could be the most expensive ever issued on the American public, costing the nation $140 billion annually, 2 according to a new analysis (updated in August 2015) by NERA Economic Consulting. This regulation will make it harder to get the necessary permits to manufacture goods and build critical infrastructure like roads and highways in Texas, while increasing the cost of energy for every business and household in the state. The picture gets even worse for the counties in the red and orange in the maps in figure 1. In these areas, manufacturers won t be able to expand without a reduction of emissions or shutdown of operations from other plants in the area. Plans for new plants and expansion at existing plants will be shelved. Federal highway funds could freeze and economic growth could grind to a halt. Figure 1: Projected Nonattainment with a 65 Parts Per Billion (ppb) Ozone Standard Areas with monitors Unmonitored but likely to exceed 65 ppb CA OR Projected Nonattainment in Texas (65 ppb) WA NV ID Projected 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Areas AZ UT MT WY NM CO ND SD NE KS OK MN IA MO AR WI IL MI IN MI TN KY OH WV SC PA NC VA NY MD DE DC NJ VT NH CT MA RI ME MS AL GA 2 This estimate only accounts for the costs and related economic impacts of bringing the country into attainment with a 65 pbb ozone standard. It does not account for any additional costs incurred by businesses complying with maintenance requirements for attainment areas. This estimate also does not account for any potential curtailment of energy production in nonattainment areas. In NERA s July 2014 report measuring a 60 ppb ozone standard, they found that a significant curtailment of natural gas production in nonattainment areas could further reduce GDP by $90 billion per year and cost an additional 1.4 million job-equivalents per year. TX LA FL Monitored CBSAs and rural counties that would be violating a 65 ppb standard Unmonitored areas that are anticipated to violate a 65 ppb standard based on spatial interpolation Projected Nonattainment in the United States (65 ppb) Based on a 3-year period, Source: URS, July 7, 2014 Source: URS

2 Austin 87 Brazoria 87 Chambers 87 Collin 87 Dallas 87 Denton 87 Ellis 87 Fort Bend 87 Galveston 87 Harris 87 Hood 87 Hunt 87 Johnson 87 Kaufman 87 Liberty 87 Montgomery 87 Parker 87 Rockwall 87 Somervell 87 Tarrant 87 Waller 87 Wise 87 Matagorda * 86 Wharton * 84 Grayson * 83 Atascosa 81 Bandera 81 Bexar 81 Comal 81 Cooke * 81 Edwards * 81

3 Guadalupe 81 Kendall 81 Kerr * 81 Medina 81 Real * 81 Uvalde * 81 Wilson 81 Frio * 80 Kimble * 80 Washington * 80 Brazos * 79 Clay * 79 Grimes * 79 Jack * 79 Archer * 78 Fisher * 78 Gillespie * 78 Haskell * 78 Jones * 78 Montague * 78 Nolan * 78 Palo Pinto * 78 Shackelford * 78 Stephens * 78 Taylor * 78 Throckmorton * 78 Young * 78 Baylor * 77 Callahan * 77 Coleman * 77 Colorado * 77

4 Comanche * 77 Eastland * 77 Erath * 77 Gregg 77 Knox * 77 Madison * 77 Menard * 77 Runnels * 77 Rusk 77 Stonewall * 77 Upshur 77 Walker * 77 Wichita * 77 Bosque * 76 Brown * 76 Burleson * 76 Fannin * 76 Foard * 76 Hardeman * 76 Karnes * 76 Sutton * 76 Wilbarger * 76 Cherokee * 75 Childress * 75 Cottle * 75 Hardin 75 Hill * 75 Jefferson 75 King * 75 Mason * 75 Newton 75

5 Orange 75 Smith 75 Bell 74 Camp * 74 Coryell 74 Delta * 74 Falls 74 Franklin * 74 Hamilton * 74 Hemphill * 74 Hopkins * 74 Lamar * 74 Lampasas 74 Lipscomb * 74 McLennan 74 Mills * 74 Rains * 74 Robertson * 74 Schleicher * 74 Titus * 74 Tom Green * 74 Van Zandt * 74 Wood * 74 Anderson * 73 Armstrong 73 Bastrop 73 Blanco * 73 Burnet * 73 Caldwell 73 Carson 73 Coke * 73

6 Collingsworth * 73 Concho * 73 Hays 73 Henderson * 73 Lee * 73 Limestone * 73 Llano * 73 McCulloch * 73 Milam * 73 Morris * 73 Ochiltree * 73 Oldham 73 Potter 73 Randall 73 Roberts * 73 San Saba * 73 Travis 73 Wheeler * 73 Williamson 73 Bowie * 72 Briscoe * 72 Cass * 72 Castro * 72 Crosby * 72 Dallam * 72 Deaf Smith * 72 Dickens * 72 Donley * 72 El Paso 72 Fayette * 72 Floyd * 72

7 Gonzales * 72 Gray * 72 Hale * 72 Hall * 72 Hansford * 72 Harrison 72 Hartley * 72 Hudspeth 72 Hutchinson * 72 Kent * 72 Leon * 72 Marion * 72 Moore * 72 Motley * 72 Navarro 72 Panola * 72 Parmer * 72 Red River * 72 San Jacinto * 72 Shelby * 72 Sherman * 72 Swisher * 72 Brewster 71 Crockett * 71 Culberson * 71 Freestone * 71 Jeff Davis * 71 Lamb * 71 Pecos * 71 Presidio * 71 Terrell * 71

8 Val Verde * 71 Aransas 70 Irion * 70 Jim Wells * 70 Kenedy * 70 Kleberg * 70 Nacogdoches * 70 Nueces 70 San Patricio 70 Jasper * 69 Live Oak * 69 Lubbock * 69 Reeves * 69 Sabine * 69 Angelina * 68 Bee * 68 Houston * 68 Polk 68 Reagan 68 San Augustine * 68 Trinity * 68 Tyler * 68 Upton * 68 Calhoun * 67 DeWitt * 67 Garza * 67 Goliad 67 Jackson * 67 Kinney * 67 Lavaca * 67 Loving * 67

9 Refugio * 67 Victoria 67 Bailey * 66 Ward * 66 Andrews * 65 Borden * 65 Cochran * 65 Crane * 65 Dawson * 65 Ector * 65 Gaines * 65 Glasscock * 65 Hockley * 65 Howard * 65 Lynn * 65 Martin * 65 Midland * 65 Mitchell * 65 Scurry * 65 Sterling * 65 Terry * 65 Winkler * 65 Yoakum * 65 Dimmit * 64 Duval * 64 La Salle * 64 McMullen * 64 Maverick * 64 Webb 64 Zapata * 64 Zavala * 64

10 Jim Hogg * 62 Cameron 60 Brooks * 59 Hidalgo 59 Starr * 59 Willacy * 59