Issue: Curbing the Asian arms race.

Transcription

1 Forum: General Assembly First Committee Issue: Curbing the Asian arms race. Student Officer: Janvi Ahuja Position: Deputy Chair

2 Introduction Arms races are a phenomenon of the 20th century, they are considered to be when two or more nations compete in the supremacy of their weaponry / military force. Historically, it has been seen as a recurring pattern; as one country increases it's arms force, as do its neighboring countries. The first series of events that were considered to be an Arms race took place during the Cold War, between the Soviet Union and the United States of America. In the past two decades, China s military spending has increased significantly (by around eight times), this was possibly due to its exponential increase in GDP, and it's need as a large and Veto state, to have a strong military. Since this military build up in China, several other Asian member states (as shown in figure 2) have increased their military expenditure. Asia has the largest population of all the continents, it has a large effect on the global economy and the overall global welfare of the planet, any potential hostile actions could have dire consequences internationally. Figure 1. Map of region in question.

3 Key Terms Defined Arms Race: when two or more nations compete in the supremacy of their weaponry / military force. Military force: the combined force of a country s military units (naval, aerial, and ground based). Asia: One of the worlds seven continents, rich in resources, carrying the largest population and containing 48 member states. Military expenditure: The total amount spent by a government on its defense force or military. Defense: the act of resisting attack or offense, can also be precautionary. SIPRI: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, an organization that tracks global security and conflict.

4 History There are multiple speculations to how to the Asian arms race began, and as some Asian nations might still deny there is an arms race taking place, there is no specified event that started it. A possibility that has been considered is that the arms race sparked due to China's rapid growth in GDP, and hence ability to increase the quality and quantity of its weapons, leading to neighboring nations doing the same. This can be supported by the fact China was the initial country to increase its military expenditure exponentially. However, It has also been argued that China is a large and veto power, and hence it is essential for the country to increase its armed forces, just as United States of America has done in the past and is currently doing. Another possible reason as to why the Arms race began is in the several conflicts that exist within Asia between several member states. Territorial and ethnic issues have encouraged nations to arm themselves for precautionary purposes. An example of this would be between India and Pakistan, two nations whom have been historically aggressive towards each other for ethical and territorial issues. As shown in figure 3, both countries gradually increased their weaponry from year to year, and within less than a decade both had more than doubled their military expenditure. Figure 3.

5 Key Issues In this increased spending in arms raises the question of opportunity cost. As shown in Figure 4, poverty is a large issue in Asia, an increased military expenditure means a larger percentage of the countries GDP is being spent on arms, rather than aiding to this, which is therefore considered a social cost. If the aggression of the Asian arms race continues to escalate at the same pace, hopes of economic agreements between the nations such as ACFTA (ASEAN- China Free Trade Area) become impossible.. This will not only reduce local economic activity but will consequently have effects globally. This effect could be due to several factors, for example that the productivity of the region in question reduces because there resources are being located elsewhere. Rivalry between the Asian nations, as well as all neighboring countries, has existed for hundreds of years, in many different areas. In the recent past due to alliance, and understanding in alliance, the animosity between Asian nations has reduced greatly, however, the Asian arms race could re-trigger hostility and mistrust between the member states. This could possibly lead to war, and in the case of war there would be an abundance of social, economic and environmental issues. Figure 4, Poverty Map.

6 General Overview of Topic/ UN perspective The increase in weaponry across Asia, this arms race is counter productive according to the United Nations, as it has stated; Since the birth of the United Nations, the goals of multilateral disarmament and arms limitation have been deemed central to the maintenance of international peace and security. To prevent further hostility between the Asian nations, the United Nations believes it is very important to tackle the issue. The Asian states involved are some of the worlds largest producers of goods, furthermore, have an extremely large amount of resources, an outbreak of war would have a dire effect on the global economy, as well the environment. The United Nations has also deemed it essential to aid all the sovereignties involved, by monitoring all disputes that may emerge.

7 Major Parties Involved and Their Views China is the only superpower that exists geographically in the region; and therefore it has a considerably large amount of influence on the Asian economy. China controls 22.95% of all exports in Asia, however this means that China s economic relationship with Asia is extremely important to both parties. In a case where China broke ties with the Asian nations it s GDP would drop significantly. Even so, China continues to rearm, and is expected to overtake the USA in military expenditure within the next two decades (as shown in Figure 5) ASEAN,(Association of South East Asian Nations) was created to better political relations between countries in the region and allow for better trade, therefore it is in the organizations best interest to prevent any aggression between two member states of the region. In 2011, the ASAN nations increased military spending by 13.5%, to 24.5 billion US dollars The USA has multiple allies in the Asian region and therefore has agreed to maintain a significant military presence. However it has also in the past been aided these nations in settling dispute. Figure 5, Predicted Military Expenditure of China and the USA

8 Major Parties Involved and Their Views India also has one of the worlds current largest military expenditures as well as strong trade patterns with the region in question (as shown in Figure 6), which are consequentially threatened with the increased hostilities caused by the arms race. India, like China, continues to invest in its military. This is due to the several conflicts that exist between India and traditional rivals with countries such as Pakistan. UNODA is an organization formed for the purpose of disarming member states, and the the UNRCPD, which is specifically for Asia and the Pacific Singapore may have the smallest population and land, it is one of the most influential countries in South East Asia, and accounts for 4% of global spending on arms imports, which is 14% of the national budget. Singapore is also an exporterof arms to developing nations and ST engineering has become the first frim in an ASEAN state to qualify for SIPRI s top 100 weaponry manufacturer. Figure 6, Indian trade with East Asia

9 Military Power of Major Parties Involved.

10 Timeline of Events 2005 China shows a significant increase in military expenditure, double the amount allocated in In March, the president of the United States of America, George W. Bush, gives India access to American made nuclear reactors. India shows a significant increase in military expenditure in 2006, a total 100% increase from Malaysian military expenditure has multiplied by an eightfold since Indonesian military expenditure has increased by 84% in the same time period Pakistan increases its defense budget by 11%, meaning 495 billion rupees were then dedicated to the armed forces, which is more than double the amount allocated to the budget in Chinese military expenditure has been quadrupled since On the 11 th of December a resolution was creates aiming to disarm member states in Asia and the Pacific (A/RES/67/65) 2012 SIPRI announced Asia outpaced Europe in the build-up of their arms 2013 Asia increases military spending by 3.6%, meaning a total 62% increase in military expenditure between 2003 and 2013.

11 UN Involvement, Relevant Resolutions, Treaties and Events: The only document in the United Nations record particularly concerning the Asian arms race is during a conference of disarmament. ( Few resolutions have been created in order to curb the Asian arms race, they include; A/RES/67/34(draft resolution only regarding nuclear warfare) and A/RES/67/65 Several resolutions, which address more than a specific event but are related to the Asians arms race, though were created in the appeal of general disarmament and the halt of arms races globally, for example A/RES/38/188 and A/RES/67/56 are also relevant to the issue. Several divisions such a as the UNODA (The UN Office for Disarmament Affairs) and the UNRCPD (The UN Regional Center for Peace and Disarmament in Asia and the Pacific) have also been founded to focus further on issues that occur in the region in question. The UNODA created and revised the resolution A/RES/62/52 (which was initially A/RES/42/39)

12 Evaluation of Previous Attempts to Solve the Issue In all previous attempts to solve the issue of the Asian arms race, the resolution has been too vague and has not related directly to the issue, hence was unable to solve each member state s specific concerns. It is therefore important for the United Nations to hold peaceful meeting discussing these details. For example, a major reason no issue has been solved is due to the fact some member states still fee hostile towards each other and are therefore unwilling to communicate peacefully. In the single resolution which addresses disarmament in Asia and the pacific, there are also clauses far too simplistic with lack of direction, for example; Reaffirms its strong support for the role of the Regional Centre in the promotion of activities of the United Nations at the regional level to strengthen peace, stability and security among its Member States;

13 Possible Solutions To solve this issue it is key to address the concerns that have prevented the United Nations from doing so before. In the region in question there are several disputes that still exist regarding land or ethics, these may be addresses in further peaceful meetings organized by ASEAN or UNODA prior to any conference to discuss the issue at hand. Another possible solution is to introduce military agreements, discussed by and agreed upon by all member states from the region in question and/ or those which may pose a threat to these, which introduce a restriction to the percentage increase in arms. This will not cause immediate disarmaments but it will curb the Asian arms race or reduce its pace of escalation. Transparency of consumption of military weaponry may also aid the issue, as one large reason as to why it exists is due to the fact nations feel threatened by a build up in arms of other countries, even where it is sometimes necessary. As discussed previously, the issue also exist due to the hostilities between nations. Hence another solution might be to hold specific UN meetings for member states who feel threatened by each other and are hence raising the quantity and quality of their arms, to discuss a treaty or quota they feel is apt for their situation.

14 Works Cited